Baseball Time in Arlington

Giving Southpaws For Thought: Texas' Starting Five Pitchers

2010-03-19T11:00:00Z

The Red Sox did it in 2004, and again in 2007 (with all due respect to an electric Jon Lester). The Cardinals did it in 2004, and again in 2006 (with all apologies to a fading Mark Mulder). The 2004 Yankees did it. So, coincidentally, did the last Rangers team to make the playoffs. What was it? Winning without consistently featuring a left-hander in the starting rotation.

The Rangers' desire to head into Opening Day with a southpaw starter has been something of a media and message-board meme this spring. Assuming right-handers Rich Harden, Scott Feldman, Colby Lewis, and Tommy Hunter have starting spots locked down (not necessarily a safe bet, granted, but one we'll make for the sake of argument), only one opening remains in the rotation. And even if it means losing the right-handed Brandon McCarthy to waivers, many folks apparently want to see Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, or C.J. Wilson get the nod for that final spot.

Why? Let's set aside residual resentment over the John Danks deal, the lingering worry that McCarthy will break (again), and the not unreasonable fear that even if McCarthy doesn't break (again), he simply won't be very good. The abiding concern is that Texas will struggle to contend without a lefty in its starting five. Over the course of a series, this argument runs, sending a left-hander to the mound every fifth day keeps opposing managers and batters honest, and helps limit the damage wrought by opponents' left-handed sluggers.

Or, as the Dallas Morning News' Tim Cowlishaw wrote last Saturday,"There's no question that having a left-hander in the mix is ideal. Going into series after series with three right-handers throwing cut fastballs ... makes Texas too predictable." (In fact, the scenario bothering Cowlishaw is likely to unfold regardless: Feldman, Lewis, and Hunter all feature cut fastballs, and McCarthy recently added the cutter to his arsenal.)

The importance of a left-handed starter is conventional wisdom -- but does it bear out? The examples we started with might suggest not, but they also come off as so much anecdotal evidence. Can we say anything more certain about the Rangers' 2010 starting situation, without resorting to such questionable comparisons? It's relatively straightforward to measure how well an individual starter is performing, but how should we measure the reciprocal interactions between a lefty starter and his right-handed colleagues (or, for that matter, the bullpen)?

Coming up with a definitive solution to the southpaw scenario is tricky. There's no obvious way to pull what Tom Tango calls a WOWY -- a "With or Without You" analysis, which compares outcomes in the presence of a factor, and then in its absence -- within a rotation or pitching staff. And there are too many confounding variables to cleanly analyze the effects of handedness in rotation composition across teams and seasons.

Resigning ourselves to these facts, what we can do is to examine the case for a lefty on its merits. Let's take a look at how the Rangers' four candidates for fifth starter have performed versus right- and left-handed batters over their careers. In the table below, we see selected platoon splits for Harrison, Holland, McCarthy, and Wilson. Juxtaposing Wilson's numbers with the rest is not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison, of course, since he's likely to fare differently as a starter than as a late-inning reliever. Still, these data give us a point of departure:

Harrison and Wilson both show fairly distinct platoon splits in these skill stats, which are the best approximations of pitchers' performance independent of defense and luck. In almost every category, Harrison and Wilson performed better against lefties than versus righties.

McCarthy was fairly consistent across the board -- his numbers aren't much worse (or, depending on your level of residual resentment, better) versus left-handed batters than against right-handed batters. In fact, his career xFIP shows a slightly reversed platoon split.

Holland's stats are more of a mixed bag. There are signs that in his rookie season, he struggled more versus left-handed than right-handed opponents. But the relatively small differential in Holland's xFIP platoon split is encouraging. In 2009, he was unusually prone to serving up gopher balls to right-handed batters on fly balls (and those batters hit lots of fly balls off him). xFIP accounts for this higher-than-expected HR/FB ratio against righties, which is likely to regress toward the league average of 10-12 percent in 2010.

All in all, the numbers suggest that Harrison and Wilson are good to go against lefties, but could labor against righties. They imply that McCarthy probably is what he is -- and that's roughly the same against hitters on either side of the plate. And they confirm that Holland could very well be in for a breakout season, especially if his long-ball tendencies normalize. But even these observations still don't provide as much clarification as we might like about the importance of including a left-hander among Texas' starters.

For more, let's take a look at the platoon splits for the two right-handed starters Texas expects to lead its rotation in 2010: Scott Feldman and Rich Harden. We have both Feldman's career and 2009 numbers listed, since considering his 2009 breakout season separately seems useful:

The small differences stand out. Neither Harden nor Feldman (especially in 2009) have been hit especially hard by lefties, even in comparison to Harrison, Holland, and Wilson. It's worth noting that the cutter Feldman broke out last season -- according to FanGraphs, the most effective pitch of its type in the majors last season -- was noted to be especially tough on left-handed batters. Also notable: Feldman's relative success against right-handed batters in 2009 may have been misleading. Only six percent of the fly balls Feldman gave up to right-handed batters went for home runs, which is much lower than expected – and, as a result, so were his HR/9 and FIP versus right-handers. (This is the opposite of what we saw above with Holland.)

What, in the end, do these two tables tell us about the Rangers' need for a left-handed starter entering 2010? First, they indicate that in Harden and Feldman, the Rangers have two right-handers who present distinct challenges to hitters of either handedness. This pokes a hole in the argument that Texas absolutely needs a left-handed starter to keep opposing lineups off balance. Second, it indicates that whatever Texas would stand to gain against left-handers by going with Harrison, Holland, or Wilson, it would likely give something away against right-handed batters. The Rangers have to ask themselves exactly how much of a penalty against righties they would pay in games started by any one of these pitchers. Given what Harden and Feldman already bring to the table, would that cost exceed the benefits relative to McCarthy?

There are no easy answers to these questions ... but here's one take. For the Rangers to maximize their chances to reach the post-season for the first time in over a decade, they need to break camp with the starters they believe will perform best from the word go. Maybe that means giving the fifth spot to Holland, whose potential and peripherals are undoubtedly promising. Maybe it goes to Harrison, boasting a newly svelte silhouette and spring success. Perhaps it's even Wilson's, given his talent and tenacity.

Handedness, however, shouldn't be a leg up for any of the trio -- not least because it's very difficult to believe the Rangers will rely on only five starters the entire season, especially if the Opening Day rotation features both Harden and McCarthy. The 2007 Jon Lester may prove an instructive example, after all. It's certainly not a stretch to anticipate Holland (or Harrison) starting the season in Triple-A, getting the call to replace an injured or ineffective righty, and giving the Rangers a second-half shot in the arm.

So if the club should decide that the best choice is McCarthy -- whose new mechanics and early results have impressed thus far, and who has an edge in experience -- so be it. Even if that means series after series of four right-handed starters throwing cut fastballs. Even if that means contention rides on five right arms as of April 5th. And if regular-season history then repeats itself, Rangers fans can party like it's, well, 1999.

[Editor's note: If you're wondering exactly who Josh Garoon is, click here to view the explanatory website announcement, and/or click here to view his bio. Josh, a post-doctorate scholar at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, makes his debut appearance in the BBTiA writing lineup today. Welcome aboard, Josh, and try to keep your on-base percentage up.]

Report: Ron Washington Tested Positive For Cocaine In 2009

2010-03-17T19:00:00Z

This is obviously not the kind of story that needed to blow up in the face of this organization within the ever-narrowing three-week window preceding Opening Day, but it did, and so begins vigorous damage control on the public relations front -- referring, of course, to the stunning revelation that Texas Rangers manager Ron Washington tested positive for cocaine in July 2009, an infraction for which he was not terminated.

According to SI.com's Jon Heyman (who broke the story late Wednesday morning), Washington notified the commissioner's office and his immediate superiors -- including general manager Jon Daniels and team president Nolan Ryan -- of his cocaine use shortly after the league-imposed drug test was administered around the All-Star break last year, expressing remorse over his decisions and going so far as to tender his resignation.

The Rangers, so the story goes, refused to accept his resignation and agreed to retain him on the condition that he entered Major League Baseball's substance-abuse program and didn't tally another positive drug test. Washington was reportedly tested three times a week over the last nine months as part of "extensive outpatient counseling," coming up clean each time, and despite being cleared by doctors to have his tests scaled back to those of the standard four-per-year variety (which are administered randomly to all non-playing personnel who work around the clubhouse), he has consented to additional voluntary drug tests as a means of eliminating any further questions about his sobriety.

So what happens now? Nothing, in all likelihood. Or at least that's the safe assumption. Washington's purported one-time indulgence in cocaine has become mainstream knowledge in astonishingly short order, but as far as the Rangers are concerned, there's really nothing to decide upon -- they made their decision nine months ago, and given the unanimous ring of support that has been thrown around Washington by management and players alike, doing a 180-degree reversal on that decision now in order to mollify angry fans isn't a viable option. It's just not. The notion of Washington being fired at any point before Opening Day is a pipe dream, plain and simple.

[And, by the way, let's not forget that the entire reason that this story went public is because somebody -- presumably, though not necessarily, in the commissioner's office -- leaked it to the media, which, by virtue of Washington being a first-time violator of Major League Baseball's drug policy, should not have happened. That leak, in and of itself, is a tad alarming. A lot of us hunger for greater transparency on matters such as these, but Texas was expressly prohibited from divulging the details of Washington's failed drug test; to do so would have violated the confidentiality of baseball's collective bargaining agreement. You can criticize the Rangers for their decision to retain Washington, but you can't criticize them for a lack of disclosure.]

And really, once you start seriously pondering the decision-making process that unfolded behind closed doors last July, perhaps axing Washington then wasn't the most viable option either. Had he been shown the door then, there are those who would have lampooned the organization for its seeming hypocrisy in kicking Washington to the curb after uniting so readily behind Josh Hamilton in the wake of his January 2009 relapse; true, the two situations aren't completely analagous, but the point would have been there to be made in some manner, and it would have had some merit behind it.

Here's the really key point that I think needs to be made, though: According to the timeline of events offered by the Fort Worth Star-Telegram's Randy Galloway, Washington's positive test was incurred during the Rangers' three-game sojourn in Los Angeles from July 6-8th, at which time the Rangers were effectively locked in a dead heat with the Angels atop the division and Washington, at this point, was less than one month removed from having his 2010 team option exercised.

Given these facts, I think it's fair to ask two very important and pertinent questions: (a) what sort of irreparable damage is done in the clubhouse if Washington -- a manager who does have his flaws, but commands the respect of his players and also seems to extract maximum effort out of his players -- is fired with the team effectively in first place, and (b) what sort of P.R. disaster ensues back home in Texas following Washington's mysterious ouster, particularly since the Rangers couldn't rationalize their decision to the media and to their fan base without violating the collective bargaining agreement?

If you're not perfectly clear on what I'm getting at, let me lay it out in more explicit terms: the Rangers are getting thoroughly blasted for sticking by Washington, and I think that it's fair to consider that the organization might have to deal with some credibility issues as far as its fan base, but I'm not sure that Texas, at the end of the day, really had much of a choice in this matter. It was either (a) fire Washington with almost certainly disastrous consequences in the middle of a pennant race, or (b) keep Washington, hope that the confidentiality clause held up and that no leaks developed, and pray that this story never saw the light of day. Which option would you have chosen?

[Tuesday 6:00 a.m. CST Update: For what it's worth, Randy Galloway is reporting this morning that the source of the leak was a "disgruntled" ex-Rangers employee who attempted to blackmail the organization, leveraging knowledge of Washington's cocaine use to create bargaining power. The team employee, fired after the 2009 regular season, reportedly listed multiple demands, including a "glowing letter of recommendation" which Texas refused to supply. Draw your own conclusions from there.]

Lefties Galore: Rangers Loaded With Southpaws

2010-03-17T13:00:48Z

Left-handers Derek Holland and Martin Perez provide the Rangers with two of the most talented young left-handed pitchers in baseball. If he can produce strikeouts and ground balls for six innings every fifth day at rates that are similar to what he did as a reliever, C.J. Wilson could be one of the better left-handed starters in the league. After his first professional season, Baseball America (BA) considered Robbie Ross to be the 16th-best left-handed pitching prospect in all of baseball. If he is as good in 2010 as he was in 2009, Ross should move into BA's Top 100 prospects list after checking in at No. 118 this year.

All four of the Rangers' pitchers feature fastballs whose average velocities would have ranked in the top 10 among left-handed starters in 2009. Only seven left-handed starting pitchers last season had fastballs that averaged greater than 92 mph -- CC Sabathia, Clayton Kershaw, Jon Lester, Jorge de la Rosa, David Price, Brett Anderson and Derek Holland. C.J. Wilson's mixture of four-seamers and two-seamers averaged 93.3 mph. Martin Perez and Robbie Ross both feature low- to mid-90s fastballs.

Interestingly, Rangers fans might not have to wait for Perez and Ross to get their next dose of left-handed heat. Both Matt Harrison and Michael Kirkman have turned heads in spring training this year with 93-94 mph four-seam fastballs and three complementary pitches. ESPN's Keith Law has taken note of both pitchers during spring training this year: "Harrison threw two innings on Saturday and averaged 93-95 mph with a hard cutter at 88-90 mph that he used heavily even in changeup counts -- even though he has an average change-up. Harrison's delivery is rather striking: He's incredibly quick for the first half, as though he has somewhere else to be, but he's a little more deliberate after he separates his hands.

"Texas lefty Mike Kirkman threw about a half-dozen pitches before leaving when a comebacker nicked the side of his face -- he's OK! -- but I did like the little I saw, fastball 89-93 [mph], hard-breaking curveball at 78-81 [mph], with one change-up mixed in. He even threw the curveball at a right-handed hitter's back foot for a strikeout just before he exited the game."

Both Harrison and Kirkman pitched during the Rangers' spring training game against the Padres on March 12th. The Pitch f/x system in Surprise produced the data presented in the two tables below.

MATT HARRISON

[Harrison's final line: 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K, four swinging strikes, six foul balls, and seven called strikes.]

Harrison debuted as a 22-year-old in 2008 with a fastball that averaged 90.3 mph. His fastball velocity was up slightly in 2009, with an average of 91.1 mph. According to FanGraphs, Harrison also added a two-seamer/cutter that averaged approximately 86 mph last year before being shut down to deal with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Removing a rib apparently contributed to improved velocity, as his fastball spiked to an average of 93.3 mph in the Arizona Fall League.

Harrison has always been effective at inducing ground balls, averaging 1.54 ground balls per fly ball in 2009. A 92-93 mph four-seamer, plus a 86-87 mph cutter, should improve Harrison's lackluster strikeout rate (4.7 K/9) while likely also improving his walk rate (3.3 BB/9) by allowing him to be more aggressive in throwing strikes. If everything breaks right, Harrison could combine a 1.5 GB/FB with 6.0 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, which would likely be good for an ERA in the neighborhood of 4.50.

MICHAEL KIRKMAN

[Kirkman's final line - 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K, two swinging strikes, six foul balls, and two called strikes.]

On this day, 22-year-old Michael Kirkman produced slightly higher velocity readings than Harrison though, according to Jason Parks, his command was a little shaky. Kirkman throws both a cutter and sinker in the low-90s, which is impressive for anyone and especially so for a left-handed starter. He also throws a hard curveball. Kirkman also threw in a slider for good measure, generating the third strike against the second hitter he faced. In an interview with Jason Cole, Kirkman indicated that he believed his slider to be his best off-speed offering. Trip Somers agrees.

Both Harrison and Kirkman are using the same combination of pitches: four-seam fastball, cutter, curveball, and change-up. Only five left-handed starting pitchers used that assortment of pitches in 2009 (see table below). The three who feature 90-plus mph fastballs alongside their other three pitches are considered to be among the better lefties in baseball. Andy Pettitte and Mark Buehrle were highly regarded as well before their fastballs lost their zip:

It is worth noting that while Harrison and Kirkman use the same assortment of pitches as some very effective major league starters, that movement and command are as important as velocity and pitch selection in determining major league success. Harrison's command appears to be major league-ready. Kirkman apparently has a ways to go in that regard, but he is definitely someone to keep an eye on when the minor league season begins in April.

Thinking About The Rangers' Upcoming No. 5 Starter Decision

2010-03-16T12:14:20Z

It took a little bit longer to fully materialize than I expected it would, but one of this franchise's most deeply ingrained rituals -- that being the annually heated debate over (and the annual process of selecting) the Rangers' No. 5 starter going into Opening Day -- is now beginning to kick into full gear, with Brandon McCarthy, Matt Harrison, Derek Holland and C.J. Wilson apparently being the last four hurlers legitimately standing in the competition. That, in and of itself, is cause for some minor celebration. No more Pedro Astacio. No more Sidney Ponson. No more Kris Benson. I'll drink to that. Multiple times.

Management is, of course, refusing to tip its hand as far as its early preference to fill that rotation vacancy, although I believe that one would be mistaken in attempting to infer anything substantive from that lack of disclosure, such as something along the lines of "well, if the Rangers aren't saying anything, it's because they have no idea who they're going to pick." Quite the contrary, I suspect. They might not be saying anything, and there might be another 2½ weeks of evaluation time remaining, but they probably already have a pretty good idea as far as whom they're to give the nod to.

Wilson has already been vigorously discussed around these parts (here and here, respectively), and I'm not sure that there's much else that can be said about his rotation candidacy at this point, other than that the value created by his grounder-inducing tendencies might be getting overlooked to some extent. Provided that his career 52.9 percent ground ball rate remained largely unchanged in the reliever-to-starter transition, and provided that his other peripherals -- notably, his strikeout and walk rates -- didn't incur too much damage in the transition, he would compare favorably to the Rockies' Ubaldo Jimenez, albeit with a bit less velocity. Jimenez, by the way, is really damn good.

Harrison is currently being identified by some media outlets as the clear-cut front-runner in this competition, with his trimmed-down figure and faster-tempo delivery and improved fastball velocity all working harmoniously to fuel the spring hype machine (and, by extension, his "stock"), but I'm not convinced. Despite wielding above-average stuff for years, Harrison's strikeout rates have always vacillated between lackluster and mediocre (verging on terrible since his arrival in the majors, in fact), and while some young pitchers experience epiphanies and post breakout whiff rates around age 24-26, he has yet to show any indication of doing the same. I guess I'm just an obstinate skeptic.

Regarding McCarthy and Holland, consider the following: Sean Smith's ever-popular CHONE player forecasts have both pitchers pegged around the 4.60-4.80 FIP (fielding-independent ERA) range in 2010, with McCarthy (4.63 FIP) actually enjoying a 15-point edge over Holland (4.78 FIP). To reiterate an earlier point made with regard to the PECOTA projections, these are both 50th percentile forecasts, meaning that they're the most likely scenarios; however, there's greater variation -- or upside/risk -- surrounding Holland's projected performance, which is great if you're a true-talent 80-win ballclub that already needs to catch some breaks to reach the post-season. If, however, you're closer to the 90-win mark, opting for consistency over volatility might be the prudent call.

Of course, one could view that as gross oversimplification of the issue, and they would probably be right. Holland's the superior strikeout pitcher and (as David Brown recently pointed out) a serious breakout candidate, and the mere fact that McCarthy has radically changed his pitching arsenal this off-season likely rendered his projection obselete, because projection systems can't detect non-quantifiable changes like that. Then again, if McCarthy is good to go for some league-average work in the major league starting rotation, but only for about 100-110 innings in that capacity, doesn't it make the most sense to not squander those innings on long-relief/minor league work?

There's probably a lot more that could be articulated on this topic, but it would amount to a massive waste of time and keystrokes -- the No. 5 starter competition makes for great conversation fodder, but the odds are quite strong that at least one of the starting five will land on the disabled list by May 15th and/or knocked out of commission for an extended period of time by June 1st, throwing the door wide open for one of the losing combatants. That, combined with the distinct possibility of regular-season failure on the part of the victor (and correspondingly swift removal from the rotation), precludes this from being an all-or-nothing-type deal. I think.

Professor Parks' Rangers Scouting Notebook: March 15th Edition

2010-03-15T11:00:51Z

The byline on this entry might suggest otherwise, but make no mistake -- this is the Jason Parks show, replete with his always-excellent scouting observations on a number of high-profile Rangers prospects (including Jorge Alfaro, Jurickson Profar, Luis Sardinas, Michael Main and Alexi Ogando) and some lesser-known names worth tracking as they progress through the system. Because we could all use a little more "El Magico" in our lives.

Two quick things before we embark upon this trip into scouting heaven: first, you can receive Jason's latest prospect updates from Surprise, Arizona by following Baseball Time in Arlington on Facebook, and second, this is a reader-participative article -- Jason won't be conducting a full-fledged Q&A session at this time, but he will be answering some of the questions that you submit below in the comments section (via text message to me, after which I'll post them), with "some" being the operative word in that sentence. Higher-quality, penetrating questions will be given higher priority. Fire away with everything you've got.

CATCHERS

● Jorge Alfaro: Really strong with ability to use raw strength to generate power at the plate; strong wrists and fluid hip rotation. Was instructed to take outside fastball to opposite field and showed no problem going the other way with pop. Very, very raw behind the plate, but very promising with the bat. (3/12)

● Assorted POP times (time elapsed from the ball arriving in the catcher's mitt to the ball arriving in the fielder's glove at second base): L. De Los Santos: 2.12 seconds (Very strong arm, but suspect throwing mechanics and sloppy footwork).

A. Perez: 2.30 seconds (Solid arm strength with a slow release and inconsistent accuracy).

Vin DiFazio: 2.25 seconds (Accurate throws, but a slow, deliberate release and average footwork.

B. O'Conner: 2.19 seconds (Sound fundamentals).

K. Torres: 2.18 seconds (Good instincts with solid arm strength and release; leader on the field and with the younger players)

Jorge Alfaro: 2.00 seconds (Well above-average arm strength and quick release. Throws tend to carry because of his footwork and positioning. Alfaro works very hard and asks questions. Extremely unrefined, but has the raw tools, work ethic, and intelligence to eventually develop into an above-average catcher).

● [Jorge] Alfaro just knocked one 400 feet. Yeah, he's 16. (3/14)

INFIELDERS

● Chris Davis was killing the ball in batting practice today. It's always awesome to watch legit 80-grade power from ten feet away. (3/9)

● Batting practice notes: Odubel Herrera: Fast bat, but limited power and very limited physical projection. Makes decent contact and has a feel for bunting.

Alejandro Selen: Despite small size, has raw strength that generates pop in bat when he can barrel it. Doesn't make consistent hard contact, though.

Santiago Hill: Keeps weight back with quiet load. Makes good contact, but lacks much power at this point.

Christian Villanueva: Didn't barrel many balls and moved around in the box too much during pre-load. Was under the ball most of the time and didn't show much power.

Luis Sardinas: Fluid hitting mechanics from both sides of the plate allowing him to make consistent contact. Lacks any power at this point and rarely drove the ball out of the infield.

Clark Murphy: Keeps hands low and drops left arm during load. Showed good pop to all fields with loft to swing. Didn't make consistent contact.

Jurickson Profar: Some noise in pre-swing from both sides of the plate including happy feet and arm wiggle. Late on balls from the right side showing little to no power and soft contact. Drove ball with more authority from left side, but was occasionally late and body would open up. Like in the field, Profar needs to slow down and harness his natural ability. At this point, Profar's coolness and flash are more advanced than his fundamentals. (3/13)

● Notes from the infield drills: Leury Garcia: Very smooth with soft hands and instincts. Looks like a well above-average fielder in drills and a below-average fielder in live game action. Defensively, Garcia just needs time to catch up to the game; the raw skills are there.

Jurickson Profar: Soft glove pick-up from either side and good natural instincts and feel. Profar is always in top gear and needs to let the game come to him to prevent rushed fielding positions and throwing mechanics.

Luis Sardinas: True Venezuelan shortstop tools including soft hands, glove-pick-up, and fluidity. Despite his rail-thin frame, Sardinas isn't awkward on balls requiring a quick first step and his overall feel for the position is evident. That said, Sardinas has a LONG way to go and will need years of repetition and refinement to reach his very high defensive ceiling. (3/13)

● Luis Sardinas just flashed serious range to his left; very smooth glove and quick reactions. Profar and Leury Garcia looking good as well. Lots of defensive talent at the position. [Odubel] Herrera wasn't a slouch either. (3/13)

● I think [Jurickson] Profar's best attribute is coordination. His ability to adjust his body and recovery from mistakes is impressive. (3/14)

OUTFIELDERS

● Batting practice notes: Miguel Velazquez: Excellent raw power to all fields. Squared up on most balls, even with inconsistent swing mechanics.

Guillermo Pimentel: Flat-back stance with some dip during load. Doesn't use legs/hips to generate bat speed. Makes contact, but doesn't drive the ball with authority and doesn't utilize raw strength.

Cristian Santana: Possibly the best raw power in the system. Looks to be carrying extra weight in his waist/hips, but looks stronger in his legs. Hit the ball with authority showing ridiculous power to all fields. Has a tendency to in/out the ball without being forced into it by the pitch location. Doesn't have the prettiest mechanics, but had the best [batting practice session] of the day. (3/13)

LEFT-HANDERS

● Robert Erlin had a very good bullpen [session] this morning. His fastball has some zip and he can spot it. His curveball is very promising. He didn't snap off many change-ups, but his delivery and arm speed remained consistent. (3/9)

● Winston Marquez with another impressive bullpen. He has nice zip on his fastball and can hit his spots down in the zone. Decent feel for his off-speed stuff as well. (3/11)

[Addendum: Marquez's breaking ball is thrown from a high [three-quarters angle] with sweeping movement. His arm speed on the pitch isn't as impressive as his fastball, which probably explains the slurvy movement. I think he profiles as a reliever at the higher levels.]

● Martin Perez: Hit all of his spots today. I'll let you know when he does anything less than spectacular. (3/11)

● Beau Jones: Solid [live batting practice session]. He dropped several good curveballs on target and velocity was noisy. His mechanics were a little screwy and he required some adjustment. (3/11)

● Chad Bell looks to have potential for three average to slightly above-average pitches. He's in a [bullpen] group with LHP Edwin Escobar, LHP Winston Marquez and RHP Braden Tullis, so I didn't have a chance to focus on him today. I'll get a good look at him when minor league games start. (3/11)

● Robbie Erlin continues to impress as well. The six-foot lefty with strength and athleticism was dead to the mitt with the majority of his pitches, including both off-speed offerings. His fastball command looks to eventually grade aboveaverage, as will his curveball, which I think is his best pitch. His fastball has some heavy sinking action and his change-up has nice shape. Erlin also fields his position quite well. (3/11)

● Geuris Grullon update of the day: The 6' 5" lefty was more consistent today, both mechanically and with fastball command. He hit most of his spots down in the lower half and was able to tame the pitch movement that often works against him. He didn't throw many sliders, and the ones he did throw weren't exceptional. (3/12)

[Addendum: Grullon profiles as a reliever at this point. His slider projects to be average at best and his change-up is basically non-existent. I hate to put a 20-year-old arm in the LOOGY box, but he doesn't appear to have much rotation potential. His fastball is so good that a little refinement should allow him to move fast as a specialist.]

● Paul Strong looked very good today. The projectable lefty hit most of his spots with his fastball, keeping the ball down in the zone. The pitch had good natural movement and some zip. His curveball had nice late-break and he showed a good feel for the pitch. He only threw a few change-ups, but located the pitch. He throws with some effort and his change-up is a bit deliberate. (3/12)

RIGHT-HANDERS

● Alexi Ogando was sitting 94-96 [mph] (touched 99 mph) with better than expected change-up/slider combo. He looked very comfortable on the mound and should be a late-inning option for the Rangers this season. Very impressive. (3/10)

● Michael Main: Carrying a little extra weight, but he didn't look slow in fielding drills and his pen was solid. He was leaving the ball up in the zone and his secs didn't look super sharp, but his FB had some zip and his mechanics were smooth. (3/11)

● Pitcher of the day: Wilfredo Boscan. He is carrying more muscle on his 6' 2" frame and had a great [bullpen session]. His arm action is incredibly fast, and his fastball had velocity and life. He was hitting his spots with his change-up (a future plus pitch, if it isn't already) and his curveball was showing some depth. He looked good. (3/11)

● Pressure Pen of the Day: Extra man in the group No. 5 [bullpen] rotation, Randol Rojas was forced to throw a solo session with Nolan Ryan looking on. Rojas showed poise and stuff, pounding the bottom half of the zone with his fastball and showing some feel for the off-speed stuff. Smallish frame, but pitchability and stuff will make him an interesting arm to keep tabs on. (3/11)

[Addendum: Rojas was throwing what looked like a curveball. He was able to spot it and spin it, so that's a good start. Once the minor league games start I'll have a better idea how to project Rojas. I like what I see so far.]

● Ovispo De Los Santos throws very hard with minimal effort. His command seems a bit iffy and his off-speed stuff doesn't compare to his fastball. (3/13)

● Tracking notes from field No. 4: Neil Ramirez showing zip on his fastball and command. Curveball wasn't sharp and lacked depth. The fastball command was encouraging. Ramirez looks more focused and comfortable on the mound. (3/14)

● Carlos Pimentel: Good stuff today. Command wasn't sharp, but fastball had movement (which it normally lacks) and some velocity. His curveball was iffy, but had good slurvy movement. His change-up is a future plus pitch with excellent fade and deception. I dig it. (3/14)

[Don't miss Jason's other scouting notes on Neftali Feliz, Taylor Teagarden, Geuris Grullon and Neil Ramirez, which were posted up last Thursday morning.]

Sunday Morning Open Thread: Five Questions

2010-03-14T12:00:31Z

1. In light of David Brown's encouraging Friday morning report on Derek Holland, are there any realistic or semi-realistic top-of-the-rotation trade options (e.g. Matt Cain, Ricky Nolasco, etc.) that you'd feel comfortable acquiring even if you had to give up Holland to seal the deal?

2. Is there any merit to the Tim Cowlishaw-propagated idea that Vladimir Guerrero is a better fit in the lineup's two-hole than Michael Young?

3. Where would you set the over/under on the number of innings that will be pitched by Rich Harden in 2010? Also, is Keith Law's pessimistically tilted scouting report on Harden worth considering, or is this a case of the Harden alarmism becoming too overwrought?

4. Does Matt Harrison's slimmed-down figure and increased velocity this spring give you hope that he can yet become a league-average pitcher strikeout-wise?

5. And now time, once again, for something a little bit different: Which Rangers hairdo annoys you the most? Potential answers include Michael Young's perfect coiffure, Ian Kinsler's 60s shag and/or Ron Washington's ... yeah.

Being Jon Daniels: Scenario No. 1

2010-03-13T13:00:32Z

Ring!

"Hi Jon. It's me, Theo Epstein. Mike Lowell is looking great this spring. His thumb and hip are both nearly back to 100 percent and he should be ready for Opening Day. If you are still interested in a trade, the Red Sox are still interested in Max Ramirez. We would also consider Brandon Boggs, Mitch Moreland or Engel Beltre as a fair return."

"Thanks for the call, Theo. With Vlad now on the roster, there's not a lot for Mike to do here. How much of Lowell's salary are you willing to pay?"

"We really want to do right by Mike, so we are looking for a good home. Texas seems to be a really good fit. I know that you're still a bit strapped for cash, so we can pay for all but $2 million of Mike's salary. But we need to show a nice return in the trade. No more Eric Gagne crap, OK?"

"All right, Theo, let me talk things over with my team. I'll get back to you by the end of the day.

Click.

Lowell provides a veteran for the clubhouse, a potential platoon partner and safety net for Chris Davis, and a backup for Michael Young. He's probably not critical to the Rangers' 2010 success, but he would be a nice guy to have around. You have four names to consider. Whom would you not part with and whom would you prefer moving in a deal for the Red Sox veteran?

[Age = current age; level = most likely levels where the player will compete in 2010; AVG = career minor league batting average; OBP = career minor league on base percentage; SLG = career minor league slugging percentage; '09 OPS = Player OPS for all games played in 2009.]

Derek Holland: Second-Year Lefty

2010-03-12T12:00:51Z

Asked to predict one player whose surprising performance in 2010 will propel the Rangers to the playoffs for the first time since 1999, I will state without hesitation that Derek Holland is my guy.

I don't care that PECOTA is not a fan, projecting Holland to produce a 5.28 ERA this season. Nor do I care that Marcel looks at him and projects a 5.12 ERA in 116 innings. Although CHONE is a little more optimistic (4.71 ERA), the system still predicts that Holland will be a below-average starting pitcher in the major leagues in 2010.

In fact, if you average the ERAs from the three projection systems for each of the Rangers' ten most likely starting pitchers in 2010, Holland ranks ninth behind not only Rich Harden, Neftali Feliz, Colby Lewis, and Scott Feldman, but also Brandon McCarthy, Tommy Hunter, Guillermo Moscoso and Eric Hurley. Apparently computers don't like second-year pitchers who posted 6.12 ERAs during their rookie campaigns.

Of course there are some perfectly good humans who don't expect much from Derek Holland this year either. John Sickels expects him to be below average. Seemingly all of the beat writers and bloggers who cover the Rangers expect him to begin the season at Triple-A Oklahoma City or in the Rangers' bullpen. The last time I checked, Joey was on board with having Holland in the Rangers' starting rotation because of his affinity for strikeouts. I like strikeouts, too, but I especially like the fact that Holland is a hard-throwing lefty entering his second season. Before I explain what I mean by that, let's first take a look at what really good left-handed starting pitchers look like.

Entering the 2010 season, the top seven left-handed starting pitchers in baseball are arguably CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, Cliff Lee, Johan Santana, Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels and John Danks. All seven pitchers feature 90-plus mph fastballs with Sabathia (94.1 mph), Kershaw (93.9 mph) and Lester (93.6 mph) having had the three highest average fastball velocities among left-handed starters in 2009. Each of the seven pitchers have at least one off-speed pitch that rates as above average to plus. Statistically in 2009, the seven left-handed starters averaged 199 innings pitched, 3.43 ERA, 8.0-plus K/9, and a sub-3.0 BB/9:

For comparison, Holland's 2009 major league numbers are presented below the averages of the top seven lefties. Although Holland's ERA is nearly double the average for the leading pitchers, the three statistical lines over which he has the most control (K/9, BB/9, and GB/FB) are remarkably similar to the top pitchers. Holland's unsightly ERA resulted from a home run-per-fly ball (HR/FB) rate that was approximately 50 percent higher than league average and a left-on-base percentage (LOB%) that was among the lowest in baseball.

Because the equation used to calculate fielding-independent ERA (FIP) includes home runs, Holland's FIP also suffered from his higher-than-expected HR/FB rate. As has been pointed out by others (here and here, respectively), Holland's performance in 2009 was not nearly as bad as his ERA and FIP would suggest.

Interestingly, when you look back upon the careers of today's top left-handed starters, you note that many of them had first seasons that were marked by high ERAs despite solid peripherals. In fact, averaging the first-year stats* for Lester, Kershaw, Lee, Santana and Danks produces a statistical line that is remarkably similar to Holland's (see table above). The lone statistical measure that is significantly different, ERA, resulted primarily from Holland's ridiculously low LOB%.

Now take a look at the bottom row in the table to see what those five pitchers did in their second seasons. Slight increases in strikeout, LOB%, and ground ball rates coupled with reductions in BABIP, walk, and home run rates helped the other five left-handed pitchers shave nearly two runs off of their collective ERAs. If Holland replicates the improvements that these other highly-regarded left-handed pitchers made between their first and second years and his LOB% improves to league average, then a sub-4.00 ERA and a prominent spot in the Rangers' rotation will likely result.

Obviously, the past performances of similar players do not guarantee another player's future success, but there are additional reasons to believe that Holland is on the verge of a breakout season:

(1) Holland pitched 138 innings against major league hitters in 2009 after an abbreviated minor league career (two years, 221 innings pitched, just 30 innings above Class A). 2009 was on-the-job training against the best the game has to offer. Like most second-year pitchers, Holland should benefit from the lessons he learned in his rookie campaign.

(2) Holland's fastball velocity (92.3 mph) was just a tad below Kershaw and Lester and comfortably above the 91 mph inflection point that separates the game's best starting pitchers from the rest. Although his fastball features outstanding movement (8.8 inches of horizontal movement compared to a pitch thrown without spin), the pitch rated as below average in 2009 (-0.91 runs per 100 times thrown). Interestingly, many young starters with good velocity and movement struggle with their fastballs early in their careers. As they become less reliant on the pitch and less predictable with when they use it, the run values of their fastballs improve.

(3) Concerned that Holland is going to struggle to become an effective major league starter like a few other left-handed pitchers who were rated highly by Baseball America? Don't be. Franklin Morales (5.2 BB/9), Gio Gonzalez (4.1 BB/9), Scott Elbert (4.8 BB/9) and Donald Veal (5.2 BB/9) all struggled with their control during their minor league careers. Jon Lester (3.8 BB/9), Brett Anderson (1.9 BB/9), Cole Hamels (3.3 BB/9), Clayton Kershaw (3.7 BB/9), John Danks (3.3 BB/9) and David Price (3.1 BB/9) did not.

Derek Holland has a minor league career rate of 2.6 BB/9 and he maintained his control as a major league rookie (3.1 BB/9). Outstanding control should make it possible for Holland to add new pitches to his repertoire (cutter, anyone?) or improve the ones that he has. It also means that he can be more aggressive with his pitch selection early in counts because he knows that he can throw strikes if he gets behind.

(4) Holland has a major league fastball. According to FanGraphs, his two most productive pitches in 2009 were his slider (+0.24 runs per 100 pitches) and curveball (+1.04 runs per 100 pitches). The movements and velocities of both pitches are approximately league average for starters and they can be very effective when complementing his low- to mid-90s fastball. Increasing the usage of his breaking pitches and/or improving his change-up (-3.51 runs per 100 pitches in 2009) are really what separates Holland from stepping into the conversation of the game's top left-handed starters.

[*Because Santana and Lester had abbreviated first and second years in the majors, I combined the stats for their first two seasons and considered that to be their rookie seasons. The second year totals are derived from what was technically their third seasons in the major leagues.]

Thursday Morning Rangers Notes: A Little Bit Of This And That

2010-03-11T13:12:56Z

Two quick things: first, Baseball Time in Arlington has, to the best of my knowledge, finally scored its first mention on Baseball Prospectus (an achievement which I have not yet figured out a way to monetize, unfortunately), and second, if you're wondering why so little attention is being devoted to the Cactus League games themselves around here ... well, ask yourself the question, "do I really care all that much?":

● The sale of the Texas Rangers to the ownership consortium fronted by Chuck Greenberg and Nolan Ryan has reportedly reached an "impasse," with the likelihood of the deal being completed by Opening Day now being doubtful; one source stated that the stalemate had existed "for weeks, if not longer, further remarking that "baseball has been deluding itself ... no idea how long it can go" (Maury Brown, The Biz of Baseball)

[Much of this update derives from Daniel Kaplan's three-day-old Sports Business Journal report, in which he details the displeasure on the part of Hicks Sports Group's creditors; the current structure of the deal would compensate these entities with only $230 million, a figure no less than $70 million short of what they are currently seeking. Said one financial source of the delays: "I don't even think a deal gets done at $300 million from the banks' perspective. It feels like they are spinning their wheels." Another source references a conference call last week between HSG's creditors and Major League Baseball that, in his/her own words, went "very poorly." Great.

So, this all represents a stark contrast to Greenberg's insistence that "everything is going smoothly," although in his defense, it's not like he's really in a position where he can say anything else. The truth undoubtedly lies somewhere in the middle, somewhere between sanguine and pessimistic, and the sooner everybody comes to terms with that reality, the better. Will throw this thought out there for consumption: given the reportedly heavy debt load attached to this deal, perhaps a little tapping of the brakes is merited before expectations get too crazy regarding increased spending on team payroll.]

● ESPN.com's Keith Law on Rich Harden, whose early-outing fastball velocity of 83-86 mph on Tuesday afternoon prompted some consternation on his part: "His arm used to be fairly free and loose, but his motion is severely restricted and he's visibly favoring his right shoulder, reducing his velocity and his command. The best case scenario for Texas is that he builds up strength over the course of March so that he can at least work with an average fastball when the bell rings next month, but this early look was very discouraging." (Keith Law, ESPN.com)

[Think the consensus from the trenches was that Harden wasn't 100 percent physically on this day, and it's conceivable that this was the root cause behind his shortcomings; actually, scratch the conceivable. More like probable. Harden still merits very close observation, however; losing him for any extended period of time to injury hardly constitutes a complete death knell to the Rangers' post-season aspirations, but it sure as hell makes the mountain that much more difficult to climb.]

● From the keypad of Jason "El Magico" Parks, whose arrival in Surprise on Monday -- luckily for us -- brings more valuable perspective to the table: "Developmental note of the day: Neftali Feliz's poor second inning of work was a bigger positive than his dominant first inning of work. Setbacks are vital parts of the developmental process, and Feliz's inability to locate his fastball today will only force him to work harder refining his fastball command and inconsistent curveball. Even 96 mph fastballs with wiggle will get ripped if left over the heart of the plate." (Jason Parks, Baseball Time in Arlington)

[A few more astute observations from The Professor: "[Taylor] Teagarden clocked today with a 1.65-second pop time. Best time I've ever clocked ... Was able to watch left-hander Geuris Grullon throw another bullpen [session] today. As I've said before, I absolutely love to watch this kid pitch. He really struggles with mechanical consistency, and I really question his ability to make adjustments, but the movement on his fastball is enough to keep me interested. If Grullon had any pitchability he would be a monster.

"Right-hander Neil Ramirez has been in Surprise since November working on his conditioning. He's defintely in the best shape of his professional career. It's great to see the dedication from a player that had some people questioning his dedication. If his command takes a step-forward his plus potential curve and plus fastball could allow him to start moving fast." Coincidentally, Scout.com's Jason Cole -- whose coverage from Surprise has been nothing short of brilliant this spring -- has served up a typically strong (subscriber-only) interview with Ramirez which merits checking out.]

Chris Davis And The Hype Machine

2010-03-09T14:00:00Z

Hype is a strange beast. It can originate from the most innocuous of sources (such as, say, a throwaway line in a prospect-oriented chat session), or from scouting-based player evaluations, or unexpectedly high placement in organizational/baseball-wide prospect rankings (e.g. Neftali Feliz in 2007-2008), or breakout statistical performances. It can fluctuate to dramatic extremes during the course of a single calendar year. It can spill over from a player's formative minor league seasons into the beginning stages of his major league career, and in the process grow even louder and more unavoidable. Then it can be virtually obliterated within the span of a few short months.

The other thing about hype is that for all but the most exceptional, can't-miss baseball talents, there are going to be those cynical few who won't completely buy into it, accompanied by an even more select group of diehard skeptics who will readily assume the role of devil's advocate just so that they can present evidence belying the hype. Where Chris Davis was concerned, though, there really wasn't much skepticism to be found during his meteoric 2007-2008 rise through the system, and that which did exist primarily concerned his glove, rather than his bat. "The biggest knock on Davis is his defense, as he's a slow third baseman with bad hands," wrote Kevin Goldstein in December 2007.

To be fair, there was always some basic level of recognition regarding the one major kink in Davis's offensive profile (that being his walks-to-strikeouts ratio, or "plate discipline," as it were), but as he drew within closer proximity of the big leagues and his nonpareil minor league offensive performance prompted his labeling as a success story in player development for the Rangers, the doubt noticeably subsided. It's pretty easy to overlook such shortcomings as a below-average walks-to-strikeouts ratio when you're not only making incremental improvements in that area (albeit in the minors), but also cranking out 35-plus-homer seasons and snapping off high batting averages.

I don't think anybody could have foreseen the extent to which Chris Davis completely collapsed last year (or, for that matter, the extent to which most of us were absolutely blindsided), but in retrospect, maybe our guards should have been raised higher. Given the forebodingly dreadful plate discipline statistics which he compiled during his 317-plate appearance rookie campaign, maybe we should have braced ourselves for something like this happening. I don't know. What is clear is that his one major underlying flaw came to a head during April-June 2009, with the end result being one of the most grotesque offensive performances over an extended period in recent memory.

Davis, to his unwavering credit, has said and (apparently) done all of the right things during these intervening months, and I'm certainly not going to begrudge the possibility of Davis leveraging all of the elements that do still work in his favor -- chiefly, his youth and his talent, and perhaps the changeover in coaching supervision from Rudy Jaramillo to Clint Hurdle as well -- and re-emerging as the player that most of us believed he was capable of becoming before last year's debacle ... but now it's my turn to air some skepticism.

Recall the wave of relief that washed over Rangers fandom last August/September when Davis, after a seven-week remedial stint at Triple-A Oklahoma City, batted .318/.350/.518 over his final 117 plate appearances. Initially held up as an indication that Davis was "fixed," these numbers obfuscate the 68-point disparity between his BABIP and xBABIP (expected batting average on balls in play) during that span; after plugging his component batted-ball rates into the xBABIP formula, his performance should have more closely resembled something along the lines of .275/.315/.465, which is markedly better than his early-season performance but is still, at the same time, nothing worth writing home about.

And while Davis's abysmally low early-season contact rate did inch closer towards the realm of respectability following his return to the majors (as did his strikeout rate), his walks-to-strikeouts ratio still lingered in the 0.15-0.20 range. That's bad. Really bad. Major league hitters can (and do) thrive with high strikeout totals, provided that they're accompanied by above-average walk rates, and can survive with the combination of low walk and strikeout rates; the reason you see very, very few major league hitters with high strikeout totals and low walk rates is because very, very few of them are capable of sticking in the majors for any extended period of time with that offensive profile.

Since the end of the 1950 season, only 43 players have rolled through the major leagues who have managed to (a) amass at least 2,000 plate appearances, or the rough equivalent of four full major league seasons, while (b) concurrently posting career walks-to-strikeouts ratios below 0.30. Not surprisingly, this list is riddled with offensively mediocre catchers (Bob Melvin, Miguel Olivo), light-hitting middle infielders (Angel Berroa, Dave McKay) and guys long on talent but light on polish and/or finesse (Corey Patterson, Jeff Francoeur), which, insofar as Davis's long-term prospects are concerned, isn't exactly favorable company to find yourself in.

And to reiterate an earlier point, Davis isn't necessarily destined to remain a low-walk, high-strikeout player for the rest of his career; walk rates for hitters do generally increase throughout their prime and into their age-3X seasons, but on a slightly less positive note, changes in a hitter's strikeout rate -- as Keith Woolner of Baseball Prospectus found in this 2000 study -- are retained from one season to the next at a higher rate than even changes in home run rate or walk rate, which is bad news given his current trends. If he can figure out a way to alter his profile, then great. If he can't ... well, then simply blame the hype machine. It's the perfect scapegoat.