The Last Trade Of The Season
Jeff Francoeur sings the hits in San Francisco on Sunday, July 18th.For an art -- the art of pitching, that is -- predicated on deceiving and/or overpowering the opposition to the greatest possible extent, it's a little surprising that we don't see more wild pitches uncorked. Only one out of every 450 or so pitches eludes the catcher and meets the necessary conditions to be a wild pitch; I'm going to assume the ratio is infinitesimally smaller for walk-off wild pitches, such as that which we saw Alexi Ogando fire last night to end a really terrible Cliff Lee-started game in Kansas City. The Lee euphoria is petering out, and we can only hope he resumes flashing his pinpoint command before we hit late September, because the hits aren't exactly flukes when they're being smashed on belt-high meatballs.
But since I can't bring myself to re-examine all of the minutia of that game (right now, at least), I'm going to divert the discussion towards the last remotely meaningful trade of the Rangers' 2010 season (and their last hope to make everyone forget about Ryan Garko and Jorge Cantu), a polarizing trade not so much because of the cost as because of the principal figures: persona non grata infielder Joaquin Arias to the Mets in exchange for outfielder Jeff Francoeur and a bundle of cash. (Brandon Boggs has been designated for assignment to facilitate Francoeur's addition, but will remain in the organization provided that no team plucks him from the outright waiver wire).
Up until a few weeks ago, Francoeur was mainly famous for three reasons: (a) seducing retired Braves general manager John Schuerholz and the rest of his baseball operations department with a five-tool package that evoked comparisons to Dale Murphy (and prompted Baseball America to rank him as baseball's 15th-best prospect before the 2005 season), (b) becoming the target of interminable ridicule and mockery when he failed to develop any semblance of plate discipline, and (c) being at the epicenter of a bizarre late-2008 trade rumor that had the Braves sending Francoeur to the Royals in exchange for soon-to-be Cy Young Award winner Zach Greinke. That, of course, did not pan out, and last July he was exiled to New York in the Francoeur-for-Ryan Church deal.
What is Francoeur today, besides a cost-neutral acquisition? A two-tool player, really; there's still some latent raw power there, I think and he might have the best throwing arm of any right fielder in baseball, but his defensive range is subpar -- a function of diminished speed, I'm guessing -- and he doesn't hit for average or contact or, for that matter, draw walks. As both myself and ESPN.com's Rob Neyer have written, though (here and here, respectively), there's at least a chance that Francoeur provides some limited amount of utility as a right-handed platoon partner for David Murphy, with one or the other holding down a corner outfield spot opposite Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton -- notwithstanding his balky knee -- patrolling center field.
The other argument for acquiring Francoeur seems to revolve around his clubhouse leadership and playoff experience and such, but since he has amassed exactly four career games of the latter -- in a four-game loss to the Astros in the 2005 NLDS -- I'm choosing to focus on the chemistry component of his purported intangible value. Josh Garoon already wrote one of the quintessential articles on this subject, but let's look at Francoeur in isolation. A five-second Google search will turn up a multitude of articles extolling him for being a great character guy and a let's-keep-things-loose prankster and, in broad terms, somebody who's just great for your clubhouse chemistry.
Here's the problem, though: arguably the fourth reason why Francoeur is famous is because his agent gave the Mets a public ultimatum about three weeks ago, essentially conveying the message that Francoeur either wanted everyday playing time or a trade. Seeing as how Francoeur's a terrible hitter versus right-handers and doesn't really need to ever face one again (along with the fact that he's having a terrible season), this was a downright delusional gambit, and for all the talk about Francoeur being so great in the intangible respect, I have to wonder how such a seemingly arrogant personality with such a poor grasp of his talent level can really be that beneficial to a Rangers clubhouse that, by most accounts, already has more team chemistry than it knows what to do with.
Analysis, The Season, Transactions
Reader Comments (55)
At first glance what comes to mind is the word superfluous.
I'll be the editor.
1. Cliff Lee looked terrible again last night.
2. We got Francoeur, who is mostly terrible, to be the insurance OF going into the playoffs.
"The other argument for acquiring Francoeur seems to revolve around his clubhouse leadership and playoff experience and such, but since he has amassed exactly four career games of the latter -- in a four-game loss to the Astros in the 2005 NLDS -- I'm choosing to focus on the chemistry component of his purported intangible value."
IMO, Billy Martin was a complete ***hole and yet one of the best players and managers in MLB history.
I value performance over personality.
Oh yeah and Billy made Ty Cobb look like a Saint.
To many new faces to make this work. I had forgotten that the Rangers chose Arias over Robison Cano in the Yankees trade for wh? A-rod? Trivia: who has the most Home Run hitting 1st basemen not presently on their roster and not a one to be Texas found? Texiera-30; Pena-?, Adrian Gonzalez-?, Smoak...to be continued, Hafner, Past Tense.
CLIFF LEE SUCKS. HE IS OUR GAME 1 STARTER? GET READY FOR LOSSES GAMES 1/4/7 IF WE EVEN MAKE IT THAT FAR.
Many Rangers fans are greatly overblowing their responses to Lee's starts. Much of that comes from people like Jamey Newberg who are intentionally ignorant about what pitchers control, all while insisting that their eyes are better record keepers and processors of millions of bits of data than are modern statistical databases and computers. They were raised in the 70s, 80s, or 90s and believe (or at least pretend) that nothing new has been learned about the game since then.
So they fall back on hopelessly flawed statistics like W/L and ERA to explain what their eyes have supposedly seen. (And in reality, their "eyes" are simply being heavily influenced by the flawed statistics.)
Until the 5th inning last night, Lee's pitching was very solid. It was a ~3.10 xFIP outing up to that point. But he had made a mess of it with his own bad defense, allowing 3 runs to score that wouldn't have without his bad throws to 2nd. So then, when he finally did hit his first bad inning (the 5th), it felt as if it was just more of the same, instead of his first truly bad pitching inning of the night. Without the defensive errors, Lee likely gets through the 5th inning and finishes the 6th for a 6-inning start, somewhere around the ~4.10 xFIP outing he had. Many people would still complain and carry on with the stupid meme about Lee pitching poorly for the Rangers, but that would have been an above league average start.
Lee has been around a 3.35 xFIP pitcher with the Rangers. That is just dominant and no different than he was with the Mariners. But an unsustainable mix of low run support (early on), bad luck, and bad defense (Cruz vs. Yankees, Arias/Cantu/Boggs vs. Rays, Lee vs. Royals) has added up to his W/L and ERA looking bad. But pitcher W/L and ERA are almost completely worthless as indicators of pitching performance go. And it's sad that people like Jamey Newberg, who many Rangers fans and local media members look to as some baseball expert, don't realize this.
As for Failcouer, the guy is a .287 wOBA in 2010. Arias is a .283. Even awful Cantu is a .304.
Trading a zero for a different zero who has recently had clubhouse issues is a bad move.
Umm... I don't have to look at ERA or W-L to notice that he tries to throw every pitch for a strike, and they happen to get centered up a bunch.
It doesn't take a sabermetric genius to see that Lee's pitches just simply catch way to much of the plate right now. His last 5 starts have been the same. There isn't a pitcher in the league that is going to get away with throwing an 82 mile an hour changeup directly down broadway with little movement.
Watch CJ pitch and you will see what I'm talking about. His mistake pitches miss way outside. He very rarely leaves anything over the plate, yeah he might walk a guy or two, but he isn't getting hammered all over the park like Lee is. I'd take 4 walks and a dominant win over 7+ K's and 6 earned runs any day.
Kinda funny how Kirkman said he learned a lot about pitching by watching Cliff Lee. I hope he isn't watching now. Maybe old Cliffy could learn a thing or two by watching Kirkman.
One stat we all need to consider if we are going to make a real drive towards the World Series.......July record 14-13 and in August 13-15............thats a combined 27-28 for the past two months. Not consistent winning at all! Granted we have had injuries but so have some of the other contenders. Thank goodness for a 21-6 June........and some lame playing by LAA and Oak not consistent winners themselves. Heads need to be screwed on a bit tighter if we are going to survive the first round of the playoffs!
The great thing about Cliff Lee is he throws strikes.
The bad thing about Cliff Lee is he throws strikes. If his command is off he does not have the "stuff" to miss bats and gets hit hard. If he would just keep the ball down even his misses wouldn't be so bad. He has been throwing a lot of high, straight fastballs that get hammered. Not sure he's worth 20 mil for 5 years.
Unbelievable! Not surprising that you the majority of guys have it running down both legs regarding Lee. He was brought here for one reason...the playoffs! Pitchers have ups and downs just like everyone else and it's obvious he's in quite a rut right now but seriously come on! He will get hot at the right time and dominate and then everyone can rave about how right I was.
Is it at all possible that any sense of poor attitude attributed to Francouer is simply his piss poor agent?
I mean, we have all seen agents take center stage and total control over their clients before. I am generally a glass is half full ,and benefit of the doubt kind of guy so i'm tempted to give Jeff a clean slate and let him and/or his agent poop on it.
But, yeah, he probably sucks.
With Lee there are extenuating circumstances. But, in almost every instance where the game was lost, Lee had a critical moment where he could have pitched out of a jam. So far, he hasn't been able to do it.
Whether it's poor managment by Wash, poor pitch selection, bad luck (strike outs take eliminate luck), he's not getting the job done. I tend to lean toward poor management (which can be explained b/c Wash did not know how to use him).
Right now, the S needs to come off his back. He needs confidence and a win. Whether he pitches 5 innings to get it, or 9. He needs to be taken out (after 5) in situations where he might get an L until he has a couple of W's in his pocket. In short, he needs to be treated like every other pitcher on the team, except maybe CJ who is about as hot as a pitcher can be right now.
I'm not a sabermatrician, but if you've failed, for whatever reason, like Lee (and Lewis for a while), whether it's your fault, your defense's fault, nobody's fault or whatever, it's human nature to have some doubts which affects your pitches.
For those of you pissing and moaning about Lee, this EXACT same thing happened last year at the EXACT same time. I'll let y'all go back and see how his playoffs went. Relax.
I'm guessing we are 6-7 games better with Nellie and Ian in the lineup over that entire span.
Lee will straighten himself out....had a similar run with Philly late last year for a couple of weeks or so. Franceour will be there just for some off the bench help against lefties. He is just a backup that may help somewhat even with his microscopic BA this season. Then again maybe he will show flashes of his early years with Atlanta? Biggest thing is for this team to become more consistent in winning and in not making fundamental mistakes on defense.......this has really hurt us at times. Plus our offense needs to step up and be more consistent also......can't just depend on Josh or Vlad (he is coming back)...injuries have hurt but all clubs have those.......
The last few trades we made, we took guys like Guzman, Cantu and Molina who were all hitting well where they were. They all get to Texas and flop. Maybe this will be the exact same, as Francoeur has sucked with the mets and maybe he will come here and be a stud. We need a right handed bat in the worst way as we were exposed against the orioles, twins and A's.
Lee's just making more mistakes than he usually makes. There was one pitch he made that perfectly down the middle of the zone; I think I could have hit that one. Major league hitters hit mistakes. Cliff Lee is going well when he's not making any mistakes. Maybe some rest would be good for him.
As far as Franoeur goes, I don't really think he's going to be a problem in the clubhouse unless the team collapses and loses the division. (If that happens, Francoeur being a cancer would be the least of their problems). The crap with his agent happened when the Mets collapsed. I think he'll be fine as a platoon player for a playoff team. The larger concern about Francoeur (in my opinion) is whether or not he can actually hit.
Is it possible to go ahead and send Lee to the Yankees? At least Harden pitches well every other start! I have no confidence in Lee right now. This trade so far has been a bust. As far as Francoeur goes, maybe he'll drive in a run at some point unlike Cantu. The Rangers seem to be stuck in neutral right now. THank goodness the A's are not taking advantage.
Who said Lee has to be the number 1 starter when the playoffs begin? It depends on who we play and where. Maybe it should be CJ, Lee and Hunter against the Yankees or CJ, Lee and Lewis against the Rays. A few things are certain: the Rangers are playing a FIVE game series, on the road, to start against very good teams. That concept should be enough to frighten any fan. Also, the team MUST be at full strength to have any chance. Andrus, Young, Hamilton, Vlad, Cruz and Kinsler need to play every game with big offensive contributions from Murphy or Cantu/Francoeur and great defense from Borbon, Molina and Moreland or it's over just as quickly as it was in '96, '98 and '99. If we get past that critical and extremely difficult first round I really like "our" chances to go the rest of the way.
I wonder if Lee's recent struggles have anything to do with who's catching him? I'd be curious to know his splits when pitching to Treanor/Molina/Teagarten. It doesn't seem to me that he is consistently pitching to any one catcher and I wonder if the constant flux of who's behind the dish is having any effect? I am not trying to make apologies for him and I don't have any data to support this suspicion but it sure seemed that he and Treanor wern't on the same page much of last night. That surely doesn't excuse the pitches he's throwing down the middle... Thoughts?
It looks like that photo is David Wright
The idea of Francoeur is going to blow up the Rangers clubhouse is just idiotic. He's going to be here a month and is reportedly very good in the clubhouse. He'll be willing to play his role on a winning team and then try to get an everyday job in the offseason.
The guy can still hit LHP which is something sorely needed in the OF. It may not work out any better than the other spare part deals but it is worth a try, especially for Arias.
Honestly I think Lee just doesn't have it right now.
I'm going to just hope all you guys are right and pray that he brings it big time in the playoffs should we make them.
Lee will straighten himself out....had a similar run with Philly late last year for a couple of weeks or so.
Yes but he also pitched on 5 or more days rest 14 times last year, including a few times at the end of the year and in the playoffs, 8-4 with 2.26 ERA. So I'll say it again GET HIM SOME REST PLEASE! I am tired of the excuses and the fact that his xFIP looks good and throws strikes all the time (they throw strikes all the time in batting practice too). SO WHAT! Man up get some results. He is the highest paid pitcher on this team more should be expected of him.
I see CY sorry CJ Wilson working out of jams and getting better results than anybody would have expected at the beginning of the year. Oh and CJ is tied for 59th in xFIP so I guess he is a terrible #2 or decent #3 starter? I want to apologize to CJ, I had my doubts that you could become a decent starter. You are a stud!
Jeff Francoeur? JD I think you are pressing here. I know that none of the trades have worked out like you thought they would but Jeff Francoeur? You did notice that Murphy is hitting .290 against lefties. Yeah I know not for much power but aren't they better than what you would get from Jeff?
Anyone else find it ironic how Lee's pitches found the heart of the plate with extreme regularity, yet couldn't find a second baseman's glove to save his soul.
I find that a tad peculiar.
In-Depth Analysis of Jeff Francoeur Acquisition
I hope you are all in a sturdy structure, you know, with the sky falling and all.
(insert rolling of eyes here)
1) Lee: Let's not panic, let's wrap this up, let's get him 10 days off, with one tune-up outingbefore the playoffs. He'll be fine. Hopefully, he tanks it up the next 2 weeks bad enough that the Yanks lose interest.
2) The trade: For Arias? And they pay his salary? And he fills a niche (albeit a small one, and not all that well) that needs filling? Very good, if minor, move.
Re Cliff Lee throwing too many strikes: His strike percentage last night was 63%. Last Thursay it was 65%. Both of these numbers are substantially lower that his typical 74-75%.
I agree with Scooby; let's not throttle Lee until games become important again. This is the beauty of an 8.5 game lead. If Wash/Maddux feels Lee needs some rest, he can let him miss a turn or 2 in the rotation. If Lee IS in fact tired or whatever, I'd rather Holland, Kirkman, etc... fill in for him anyway, especially with the way he's been throwing lately.
Regarding Francouer; To me, I think the trade was brilliant. You've got a decent defensive outfielder (with experience) that may very well benefit from hitting in this ballpark... and for what? Arias... puhleeze!
It was a low risk/potentially high reward trade.
The only thing that concerns me is WHY JD made this trade. Is Hammy's knee worse then they're letting on.
Is Cruz so brittle that they don't trust his body for another 5 or 6 weeks? Or was it made to simply allow Hammy/Cruz more frequent rest?
Good Lord... where would be without Murphy? Scary thought..
Regarding JDs other trades;
Cantu - a HUGE failure but not one of you, or anyone in baseball, would have predicted this slump.
Guzman - a HUGE failure and the one (trade) that deserves the most criticism. The minute this puke ball flinched at the idea of moving from DC to Texas (better weather, closer to wherever the hell he's from, no state income tax, hitters ballpark) should have been a huge warning sign and JD should step away from the deal. Perhaps that's the difference between a GM with 25 yrs experience vs. one with 5 yrs. Who knows...
Lee - Great trade. Woulkd do it again a thousand times over. Will we 1 day regret trading away Smoak, probably... but do you think the Brewers miss Matt LaPorta and his 8 or 9 HRs? No... they don't. Granted he was blocked at 1B and Smoak wasn't... but still, he wasn't producing and Lee may be the key piece in the Ranger's 1st WS ring.
Molina - I'm not going to count this yet as a failure. It really was a bad trade from the onset simply because we gave up a high upside guy in Main. BUT... where would we be right now if it weren't for Bengie?
Anyway, I don't think we should blame JD for Cantu, Guzman, and Molina not panning out (yet)... but i guess if someone needs to be blamed, it would be JD.
IT'S A PROVEN FACT THAT FRANCOEUR CAN'T HANDLE THAT TEXAS HEAT. WE NEED MORE PEOPLE LIKE NOLAN, THE ARCHITECT. HE WON GAMES AND IMPREGNATED WOMEN AT THE SAME TIME YE HAWWWWW
*shoots pistols in the air*
Hey Patrick, your last comment belongs in the overreaction forum topic. It's perfect for that.
Anyone else find it ironic how Lee's pitches found the heart of the plate with extreme regularity, yet couldn't find a second baseman's glove to save his soul.
Can you provide the data showing this? Or is this just one of those stupid arguments where all you can do is reference your eyes?
Also, xFIP says Lee has been dominant on the whole as a Ranger. Why should we believe the intelligent work that went into creating xFIP is all wrong, while you are right? Talk about a "peculiar" request.
Honestly I think Lee just doesn't have it right now.
This must be Jamey Newberg.
I see that there are Lee apologists everywhere. Quit making excuses for him. The Rangers have played 20 days in a row and every pitcher has been on the same 4 days rest schedule. It's not effecting CJ one bit, and remember this is his first year as a full-time starter. I hate to admit it but Cowherd was right when he said Lee doesn't want to pitch here. There's no other reason for him to go out there and put forth the efforts he's put in of late. He's a mentally weak, turdbag of a pitcher and I definitely don't want the Rangers to resign him.
@ Jeremy
Good analysis, in-depth and thought provoking. gmafb.
xFIP tell you that he hasn't pitched like an ace that we gave away our top prospect in a farm loaded with high prospects for?
Does xFIP tell you that Lee has been giving up runs in bunches to some awful teams?
What does xFIP tell you about CJ dominating the same exact teams that Cliff has gotten shelled by?
You can't honestly say right now, no matter what xFIP says, that Cliff Lee as a whole has been dominant for the Rangers. He went 9, 8 and some change here and there, but guess what, HE LOST the game more often than not. The defense behind him fucked him twice. I'll guarantee you the defense has saved him countless other runs. He is the one that throws the pitches that the hitters crush.
I'll take CJ over Lee. I could give a shit what xFIP says about that. And no I'm not Newberg.
@ The Natural
Well, you're in luck! You don't have to take CJ over Cliff because...get this....we have them both!!!
Oh, and this just in...our traded "top prospect" tearing it up in SEA. Oh...wait...
With Kinsler back on the field Friday ... does that mean the only way Cantu, Guzman, and Cora get on the field is if they talk to The Dots girls into letting them sub for them for a couple of races?
This just in, Cliff Lee has outpitched which Texas starter since he got here?
I'm coming up with Harden, and he is no longer a starter. Don't even try to say Colby or Tommy because their xFIP-376abc isn't as good, or whatever. Hunter had a couple bad starts, but overall has been a rock. CJ is a bad ass.
Lee has had his flashes of brilliance... And xFIwhatever says he has been dominant. I say he has been good a few times, and not even close a lot more.
Man. You guys are sooooo fair weather. Lee's first several starts were dominant, and the 'Pen benefited so much from the nights he gave them off. Also, that should have been scored E-1 last night, with 3 of Cliff's runs counted as unearned. Granted, it's still on Cliff, but not on his pitching. ANd it's not the D that has really let him down. It's the O. He should have been 5-0 in his first 5 starts with us, but got no run support. Same story for Colby. The flip side is Hunter has gotten ridiculously copious run support for a season and a half now. Cliff is a stud. Bad couple of weeks. He'll be fine. Do you guys remember the season (a whole damn season) that Josh had last year? And now the fair-weather-types among you want to lock him up for 5 more years? Even the best hit rough patches. Based on the last few weeks, I'd be much more likely to give Lee his market value on a 5-6 years deal than to give Josh and his bum knee his market value on a 5-6 years deal. By 2013 Josh is a full time DH.
@Scooby
The difference is Hamilton was hurt last year so he had an excuse. Cliff Lee isn't hurt he just isn't pitching well. Every time he pitches I keep hearing he's not hitting his spots. How long does it take a former CYA winner to get his act together? Is he going to get it together before the playoffs? Do you really want this to linger into the postseason? I don't. The Rangers still have work to do in the regular season, and this notion that Lee is only important come playoff time is a farce.
If the Rangers did not have Lee everyone would move up one and who would be the fifth starter? Harden? Harrison?
The only question is whether or not what the Rangers gave up in the trade was worth pushing the Rangers FIFTH starter into thebull pen.
As much as I liked Smoak the answer is an easy and resounding YES.
As far as his current struggles, I am a bit grateful because earlier everyone was hot and bothered to enough to go out and mortgage their first born to buy five - seven years at $20M+ per each and every year. Now that we see that even Lee can have feet of clay maybe a more realistic view of his worth to the Rangers will emerge.
Sorry Scooby I can't agree with you.
Nobody was more disappointed with Josh's 2009 season than I was. But let's think about it, the year before, he was amazing. He gets hurt the next year, and doesn't have a great season. This year, he has stayed on the field for the most part, and once again he is amazing.
If Josh is a full time DH in 2 years, who cares? Does anyone care that Vlad Guerrero is a DH? Everyone is flying off the hook after his mediocre season last year to lock him up with the Rangers?
Lee's debut with the team left a really bad taste in my mouth. He was supposed to come in and shut the other team down. Yet, after the first inning, we were in a hole having to try to dig our way out of. If he goes 9 innings and loses, what's the damn point?
Tommy has had run support which has attributed to his W-L record. How about his ERA this year vs. Lee's as a Ranger? I don't know, maybe his xFIP isn't as good or something.
You really want to give Lee, and his xFIP, 20+ million over 5-6 years rather than locking up the leading MVP candidate? Remember this, give Lee his money and it likely costs us CJ and possibly Nellie later on.
Still worth it?
To anyone and everyone mentioning, arguing or even thinking about xFIP: xFIP is not a stat to judge a pitcher's performance to date. At best it can tell you if the pitcher has been a little unlucky or not. xFIP is an indicator for reasonable expectations going forward. It cannot tell you anything about Lee grooving pitches right down the middle of the plate.
Lee is apparently getting treatment for a lower back issue. I can see it being easier to make mistakes if he's pitching through discomfort. We don't need to apologize for him, but we don't need to rail his trade as a complete and utter failure. This trade was meant to impact the playoffs --not the race to get to the playoffs. We can't judge Lee or this trade until this season is over. Let's see if some extra rest and treatment for whatever is wrong with his lower back might help him avoid the middle of the zone a little more often.
For anyone wanting evidence of Lee grooving pitches down the middle of the zone, I've included his pitchf/X charts in the link below. Lee wasn't fooling anyone. When he missed down the middle, the Royals knew it and rocked it.
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?month=8&day=31&year=2010&game=gid_2010_08_31_texmlb_kcamlb_1%2F&pitchSel=424324&prevGame=gid_2010_08_31_texmlb_kcamlb_1%2F&prevDate=831
Dear rangers100:
How could I have missed it Youre absolutely rigth Cliff Lee was awsome last night accept for when he had to throw it to second base. Good thing lefties can't play infield! thanks for spreading the truth on FIP.
-- rangersrok
@ Jeremy: Sigh. You're right. Josh's entire, disasterous season was totally due to injury, we know that for sure. And also, Cliff is not at all sufferring from a bit of dead arm. Also, I'm 100% sure that if we look at the prime careers of Clemens, Maddox, C.C., Bob Gibson, etc., none of them ever had a bad stretch of 5 starts. Totally. I appologize. You're totally right.
@ thenatural: Bear in mind that Josh can't go anywhere for 2011 or 2012 anyway. So, if by 2013 he's a DH-only, do you really want to be paying him $15-20m/yr (CF-with-an-MVP-bat money) for a DH? DH-only types have a market value of half what their bat would be worth at most other positions. If Josh is still a great bat by the end of 2013, but can't play the field, we could probably get him to resign for 3 yrs/$22m or thereabout. And, as a bonus, if he totally breaks down and can't even hit (see Jeremy's point about 2009), then you get to dump him at no cost. Also, I don't buy that resigning Lee means we can't keep Cruz, CJ, and Kinsler. If the team really is going to do what it says financially over multiple seasons (7-10% bumps in payroll each year) you can keep those guys and still sign Cliff. Arb Josh out and see what his health looks like after 2 more seasons. What you absolutely CAN'T do is lock up Cliff and Josh both for the long term, and still keep Nellie, CJ, and Kins. Of those 5, I strongly believe that Josh's game will have faded the most over the course of the next 5-6 seasons.
Also @ thenatural: Yes, you're TOTALLY right that the best way to judge the overall value of Cliff Lee as a pitcher over the next 5 years is on the basis of his ERA since the (totally arbitrary) date of his arrival in Arlington. Things he did previously (including the first half of this season) are totally irrelevant when compared to his ERA over a recent small sample size. What was I thinking? You are SO right! Tommy Hunter should totally be ahead of Cliff Lee in the playoff rotation!
...and now we find out that Cliff has a bad back, so there's your "Josh had an injury in 2009" counterpoint.
Also, I would add that "doesn't have a great season" is some serious suger-coating of Josh's 2009. Slash line of .268/.315/.426/.741 for a cleanup hitter is god-aweful.