Texas Rangers 2010 Draft Preview
The University of Miami's Yasmani GrandalThe 2010 MLB Rule 4 draft is scheduled to take place on June 7th, 8th and 9th, with the first and supplemental rounds being televised during the evening of June 7th. The Rangers are slated to make four picks on the first day of the draft -- two first-round selections (No. 15 and 22) and two supplemental first-round selections (No. 45 and 49). Before considering whom the team might select, it is worth considering how recent draft picks in the mid- to late-first round and supplemental round have fared.
From 1996 to 2005, 110 players were drafted in slots No. 15 through 25. Seventy-nine of those players have spent time in the major leagues, 50 have been more productive than replacement-level players, and 15 have been worth at least 10 wins above replacement. Lance Berkman, CC Sabathia, Chase Utley, Scott Kazmir, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Matt Garza, Chad Billingsley, Nick Swisher, Brad Lidge, Jacoby Elsbury, Matt Thornton, Adam Kennedy, and James Loney were all selected among picks No. 15-25 during this ten-year period.
Breaking the draft picks down based upon position and whether they were selected out of high school or college reveals that college hitters (especially infielders) and high school pitchers provided the greatest return to teams selecting in the mid- to late-first round (see table below). The worst performing group was the high school position players, with only five out of 22 players selected during this ten-year period developing into at least replacement-level players.
More than 50 percent of the college pitchers failed to develop into replacement-level players, and many of those who did succeed in making it to the majors did so as relief pitchers (Matt Thornton and Brad Lidge top the list) or mid-rotation starters (Joe Blanton, Eric Milton, Jeremy Guthrie). Among the 35 college pitchers selected, only Matt Garza profiles as a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. In contrast, CC Sabathia, Scott Kazmir, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Phil Hughes, Chad Billinglsey, and Chris Volstad were among the 29 high school pitchers who were selected.
• Columns No. 3-5 indicate the number of draftees who are projected to earn the indicated number of wins above replacement during their major league careers.
• "Oops" indicates the number of draftees who failed to develop into at least replacement-level major leaguers.
• Success rate is the percentage of draftees who developed into at least replacement-level players.
• Avg. WAR is the average number of career wins above replacement earned thus far by draftees who developed into at least replacement-level players.
Based on past performance, it would appear that the Rangers would be best served by focusing upon high school pitchers and college hitters for their two first-round selections. Thumbnails of five high school pitchers and five college hitters who might be available to the team are provided below.
High School Pitchers
Karsten Whitson, RHP, 6'4", 190 lbs | Video
90-95 mph fastball and a plus slider
Considered an elite prospect entering 2010, Whitson's mid-season struggles caused him to drop to the mid- to late-first round in many mock drafts. A dominant showing in the recent Florida Baseball Classic might have pushed him back out of the Rangers' reach. Whitson's 80-84 mph slider rates as the best secondary pitch among high school draftees.
Stetson Allie, RHP, 6' 4", 225 lb. | Video
Mid- to upper-90s fastball and upper-80s slider
Generally regarded as having the second best stuff in the draft, Allie is likely to be a top-10 pick. Concerns about his control, his ability to develop into a major league starting pitcher, and his demands for a high signing bonus might cause him to drop to the middle of the first round.
A.J. Cole, RHP, 6' 5", 190 lb. | Video
90-96 mph fastball, occasionally plus curveball, and decent change-up
Like Whitson, Cole entered 2010 as one of the top high school pitchers in the draft but a relatively poor senior season has caused his stock to drop. Expected to add velocity as he fills out. When he is pitching well, Cole's curveball has a late, tight break and his change-up has nice fade.
Dylan Covey, RHP, 6' 2", 200 lb. | Video
93-96 mph fastball, excellent 81-82 mph slider, and developing curveball and change-up
Advanced feel with potential for a plus fastball and three other average or better pitches. Baseball America projects him to develop into a No. 2-3 pitcher. Signed with the University of San Diego, but he appears likely to turn pro.
Zach Lee, RHP, 6' 4", 195 lb. | Video
90-93 mph fastball, sharp slider, and promising change-up
Relatively inexperienced, though surprisingly polished pitcher could likely improve quickly if and when he decides to focus on baseball. Signed to play quarterback at LSU, thus a well-above slot bonus will likely be required to sign him.
College Position Players
Yasmani Grandal, catcher, 6'2" 215 lb. | Video
Switch-hitting catcher with excellent power and walk-rate. Average defensive skills.
Highly recruited catcher as a high school senior has been a three-year starter for very good teams at the University of Miami. Failed to hit up to expectations until 2010 when he switched from being a pull hitter to taking an all-fields approach. Grandal ranks among the nation's leaders in on-base percentage (.552). His walk-to-strikeout ratio improved each year and currently sits at 52 walks to 32 strikeouts. An average receiver with an average arm, Grandal projects to play well enough defensively to stick at catcher.
Christian Colon, SS, 6'0", 200 lb. | Video
Excellent hitter with power. Could be very good defensive 2B
Superior bat speed and barrel awareness contribute to low strikeout rate (16 K in 277 PA in 2010) and excellent power for a middle infielder (15 doubles, 14 home runs in 2010). 11 percent walk rate. Hands and footwork of a shortstop, but limited range and arm will likely necessitate a switch to second base.
Kolbrin Vitek, 2B/OF, 6' 3", 195 lb. | Video
Above average hitter with average to plus power. Switch from infield to outfield likely.
A three-year pitcher/3B/2B for Ball State is expected to play the outfield as a professional. Baseball America rates his starting speed as a 55 and his underway speed as 60-65 on the 20-80 scale and suggests that Vitek might be able to play center field as a professional. Vitek was an excellent collegiate hitter (.389/.465/.736 in 2009 and .361/.445/.691 in 2010) who could improve rapidly as a professional since he will be able to focus exclusively on his hitting. 36 strikeouts against 33 walks in 268 plate appearances as a junior suggest that he will need to improve his plate approach.
Jedd Gyorko, SS, 5' 10" 195 lb. | Video
High OBP hitter with decent power. Limited range on defense.
Outstanding college hitter had a 1.062 OPS as a freshman, 1.145 OPS as a sophomore, and 1.222 OPS as a junior. Excellent strike zone management (9.5 percent strikeout rate vs. 11.8 percent walk rate in his college career) contributed to a remarkably consistent OBP (.450, .487, and .472 in three seasons at West Virginia). Hit well in the Cape Cod League in 2009 (.323/.390/.488), suggesting that his transition to wooden bats will go well. Played shortstop in college but will likely have to play second or third base as a professional. Gyorko would be a bit of a reach if he was selected with either of the Rangers' two first round picks, but he is unlikely to last to their first pick in the supplemental round.
Bryce Brentz, OF, 6'0" 185 lb. | Video
Power-hitting outfielder with enough arm and bat to play right-field as a professional.
An outstanding sophomore campaign (.465/.540/.930) had Brentz near the top of many mock drafts entering the 2010 season. Injuries and a questionable plate approach in 2010 (30 strikeouts vs. 25 walks in 184 at-bats) have likely dropped Brentz to a mid- to late-first round selection. His outfield defense projects as major league average, so his ultimate value will depend upon the development of his offensive game.
Supplemental First Round
The supplemental first round is a bit of a crapshoot, producing the occasional All-Star (David Wright, Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, Aaron Rowand, and Huston Street) amongst a lot fringe and non-prospects. Among the 131 players selected in the supplemental first round during the 1996-2005 drafts, less than half have appeared in the major leagues (65) and only 28 have developed into at least replacement-level major leaguers. A review of the performances of the supplemental draft picks according to their experience level and position is provided in the table below.
Performances of Players Selected in Supplemental First Round
Based upon the data from the 1996-2005 drafts, position players are a better bet than pitchers to develop into productive major leaguers. The exception to that rule appears to be relief prospects such as Huston Street, J.P. Howell, Joba Chamberlain, Aaron Heilman, and Jimmy Gobble who were all selected in the supplemental first round. More recently, the Rangers have struck gold in the supplemental round by drafting Tommy Hunter and Tanner Scheppers, both of whom were likely considered relievers by most clubs.
In considering the Rangers draft, it is fun to consider a Scheppers redux that would result in the oft-injured and Boras-advised Anthony Ranaudo falling to the Rangers at pick No. 45. Likewise, an interesting college hitter like Gyorko, Brentz, or Vitek could fall to the end of the supplemental round. If neither of these extraordinary events actually occur, the Rangers will likely find themselves choosing from among an interesting assortment of high school pitchers and position prospects and college pitchers who project as relievers. The picks of the litter might include:
High School Position Players
Garin Cecchini, 3B, 6'3" 195 lb. | Video
Excellent left-handed hitter with power and the arm and hands to stick at 3rd base.
Entered 2010 as one of the nation's best high school hitters after leading the US 18U team in hitting (.529 OBP/.708 SLG). A torn ACL had to be surgically repaired during the spring, preventing him from moving into the first round. A large signing bonus will likely be required to keep Cecchini from attending LSU.
Kellin Deglan, catcher, 6'2" 200 lb. | Video
Left-handed hitter with power potential and solid defensive skills
Advanced defensive catcher with good feet and a strong arm. Despite youth, displays strong leadership qualities. Occasionally long swing generates significant power but also causes problems with making solid contact. Canada native does not have track record of many other high school players. Expected to sign.
High School Pitchers
Ryne Stanek, rhp, 6'4", 180 lb. | Video
91-96 mph fastball, potentially plus curveball, slider, change-up
Fastball velocity increased between junior and senior years. Delivery will likely need to be altered slightly. Stanek is part of a deep class of high school pitchers who have the raw stuff to develop into very good major league pitchers. With an excellent development program in place, the Rangers appear to be ideally suited for converting this pitching potential into mound production.
Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, 6' 4", 190 lb. | Video
91-94 MPH fastball, advanced change-up, under-developed slider and curveball
Very good arm whose cold-weather location (Illinois) might have contributed to the lack of development of a breaking pitch. Fastball could add pace and change-up has plus potential, making Foltynewicz an interesting relief prospect at the very least. Committed to pitch at the University of Texas.
Tyrell Jenkins, rhp, 6' 4" 180 lb. | Video
92-93 MPH fastball, curveball, slider, change-up
Multi-sport star could develop quickly if and when he focuses on pitching. Signed to play quarterback at Baylor, but considered to be signable. Excellent athlete with a quick arm that produces fastballs up to 95 mph. Secondary pitches will need to be developed, though he has shown some aptitude for a curve.
Cam Bedrosian, RHP, 6' 0", 200 lb. | Video
92-94 MPH fastball, power slider, fringe-average curve and change-up
Son of Steve Bedrosian projects as a closer. Relatively short right-hander has good arm strength. Another in a seemingly endless list of LSU recruits.
College Pitchers
Chance Ruffin, RHP, 6'1", 185 lb. | Video
90-93 MPH fastball, excellent slider, and late-breaking curveball
Son of Bruce Ruffin become a full-time reliever for the University of Texas in 2010. Fastball/slider combo was deadly in college and could allow Chance to be the first 2010 draftee to play in the majors.
Jordan Swagerty, RHP, 6'1" 175 lb. | Video
92-94 MPH fastball and an 84-86 MPH 12-to-6 curveball
A plus fastball and a curveball that Baseball America claims grades as a 70 on the 20-80 scale have made Swagerty one of the best relievers in college baseball. Two advanced pitches could allow him to move quickly through the minors.
Perci Garner, RHP, 6'2", 225 lb.
92-94 MPH fastball and power curveball
Backup quarterback at Ball State chose to focus on baseball in 2010 and went from bullpen arm to staff ace. Occasionally inconsistent delivery should improve as he focuses on baseball. Fastball has movement Curveball is average. Slider and change-up also exist but will require substantial development. Draft-eligible sophomore is considered to be a relatively easy sign.
19 Comments | in Analysis, MLB Draft, Prospects, The Season
Reader Comments (19)
If only your list is available, I'm going
15. Vitek (not likely to get past SD)
22. Whitson (doubt he gets that far)
45. Deglan (would be a steal at 45)
49. Bedrosian (beautiful mechanics, knows what he's doing)
My preferences
15. Justin O'Conner ("ballplayer", brings multiple options)
22. Kaleb Cowart (Da shizz. You kids still saying that?) http://blogs.ajc.com/georgia-high-school-sports/2010/06/02/the-next-chipper-jones-cook-high-pitcher-throws-97-mph-but-wants-to-play-3b/
45. Foltynewicz (I've said it multiple times, big time sleeper)
49. Bedrosian
Note; as I was linking Cowart piece I learn this, http://blogs.ajc.com/georgia-high-school-sports/2010/06/03/cook-high-flamethrower-kaleb-cowart-97-mph-named-as-gatorade-national-player-of-year/
Not sure how that may complicate things. He has the football option but has seemed pretty willing to sign if he's drafted as a hitter, which works for me because that's where I see him anyway.
The Rangers 1st pick will be a good indicator to what JD will have in terms of $$ to sign guys. If he has to take a mediocre guy at 15, then we'll know he's been told to stay within slot... and that will suck!
To me, I think that unless some high school phenom drops in their laps, I would focus on college players that can help the Rangers win in 2011 or 2012. I would also think a college player would be a bit easier to sign given that they're done with school and ready to turn pro.
Quick question; is Matthew Purke eligible for the draft... or does he have to play at least 1 year of college ball?
I'll give you 1 name to look out for... Brandon Pierce. He's a local kid (Gunter HS) that sits in the mid 90's. He signed with Nebraska but if he's drafted high, he'll go pro.
Purke, eligible next year as a sophomore because of birthday.
Pierce, not seeing him anywhere - doesn't mean much cause I'm not an expert though I've kept up with this draft a lot.
15 is likely to be a college player as you point out, although a signable high upside HS guy is worth much more in my opinion. As such O'Conner is a no brainer if he is in fact signable, which all indications are he is. Probably only college player woth it is Vitek
A really nice article. Thanks, Dave.
For those of you who think Michael Young is still the answer at third base - notice in the mock drafts around the web that they generally have the Rangers going catcher then 3rd base. Umm, why?
There are still people who think Michael Young is the answer at 3B? :)
I agree that unless there's a pitcher they really, really like available at 15 those college hitters look very good. I really like those three bats who can play the middle infield. Sounds like Vitek could play CF and Gyorko could play 3B and both could play 2B if somethiing happened to Kinsler. I also wouldn't pass on Colon even if he's limited to 2B. If his bat plays up to snuff he could move Kinsler to the outfield or in a trade.
Recent bonus demands by Grandal might have increased the likelihood that he will be available to the Rangers at #15 and perhaps even #22. He would likely rank behind only Scheppers and Perez on the Rangers' mid-season prospect list. Grandal and/or Colon would be really nice bats to add to the system.
Speaking of prospect lists, this is where I would slot the various draft pick options described in the article if they were in the Rangers' system at mid-season:
Colon, Grandal, Allie, and Whitson - Top 5 ahead of Velazquez/Alfaro
Cole, Covey, Vitek - Top 10 ahead of Erlin/Thompson
Gyorko, Brent, Lee, Jenkins, Stanek - Top 20 ahead of Beavan/Wieland
Have you seen or heard about East Texas pitcher Colby Suggs(92+ fastball)? I was wondering what his draft prospects are. I know the Rangers have scouted him. Suggs committed to Arkansas. He one hit Tyrell Jenkins' Henderson team in the playoffs this year and only allowed 3 ER in 3 playoff starts.
Great stuff. Does anyone have a feel for whether or not some major league teams use this kind of breakdown or would that be too complicating of a factor in regard to their own scouting and fiscal restraints?
@ James Mason
It is generally understood that (unlike other sports) MLB teams do not make draft decisions with any premonitions of immediate contributions from the drafted player(s). In light of this, it is not unreasonable to consider taking a quality 3B (if available) in this draft, as Young will turn 34 this year.
The following link provides some insight into this line of thinking:
http://www.hsbaseballweb.com/interviews/scouts_dissect_draft.htm
Also, it never hurts to maintain plenty of lineup options. For instance, if the Rangers were to draft a 3B this year, and he developed into an MLB-quality starting 3B within 1-2 yrs, then Young could wind down his career at the DH position.
Lastly, I believe that Jon Daniels has stated on multiple occasions that the primary draft staratgey for the Rangers is to select the best available talent, regardless of postion or team needs.
Is Swagerty draft eligible? I played against him in hs. He was a sophomore this year at ASU. He was supposed to be a top 5 rounder out of hs, fell to round 50 something.
Is Wimmers expected to be gone by our first pick?
Pabloesque: Don't read anything into it if the Rangers reach for someone who's signable with #15. Since that pick isn't protected, they really need to get someone who will sign for somewhere around slot (they can go a little over but not much). I would expect #22 to be a much more aggressive pick.
Drew - Swagerty is a draft-eligible sophomore who was drafted in the 44th round two years ago. What do you think of his curveball?
Tricer - With the recent bonus demands floated by Colon and Grandal, it appears increasingly likely that Wimmers will be drafted by one of the fourteen teams drafting before the Rangers who are seeking a college player who will sign for close to slot. I hope that Wimmers goes in the top 14 because it will increase the chances that the Rangers will get a shot at someone with upside greater than a #3/#4 pitcher.
Dave H - I'm not buying the notion that Pick #15 needs to be a slot signing. Instead, it needs to be someone that the team is confident that it can sign. Despite apparently high bonus demands, I think that Grandal, Allie, and Colon are still in play at #15 as long as the Rangers are convinced that they can fit them into the budget that they've set for the draft.
David--it was pretty dirty. Not so much a 12-6 but had excellent late break across the zone. The best thing about his curve was how hard it was (for me anyways) to pick up out of his hand. There was one game that he 1-hit us and I swear you couldn't see any spin on the ball yet it was dropping off the table last second. So ya, it's pretty dang good.
Have you seen or heard about East Texas pitcher Colby Suggs(92+ fastball)? I was wondering what his draft prospects are. I know the Rangers have scouted him. Suggs committed to Arkansas. He one hit Tyrell Jenkins' Henderson team in the playoffs this year and only allowed 3 ER in 3 playoff starts.
BA ranks him as the state's 41st-best prospect, noting his unusual two-way status -- he played on his HS football team as a 6' 0", 230-pound center -- and "90-94 mph with riding life and a good curveball."
There's a report out tonight that Grandal has agreed to a pre-draft deal with the Royals, so that route may be blocked off. Neither Workman nor Wimmers jazz me, even at No. 15. Law is saying tonight that the alleged Grandal deal could set off a domino effect that sends Zach Cox tumbling to the Rangers; that would appeal to me more so than the selection of a lower-ceiling college arm.
@ caleb Johns
It is generally understood that (unlike other sports) MLB teams do not make draft decisions with any premonitions of immediate contributions from the drafted player(s). In light of this, it is not unreasonable to consider taking a quality 3B (if available) in this draft, as Young will turn 34 this year.
No kidding? Learn something everyday. I would have never guessed it takes years to develop MLB talent.
On the other hand, the mock drafters are drafting catchers and 3rd basemen - why don't you write them an email?
Wait ... I've got it. If we can tab one of those top middle infielders then move them to another position (cf, 3b, etc) they would could give us a third backup middle infielder. Can't have too many of those. Ron Washington would be in heaven :) Yes, I'm joking.
When was the last time the Rangers didn't take a pitcher with either of their first two picks!