MJH on accountability
Pretty self-explanatory poll. Inspired by Jeff at Lookout Landing. I have a hunch as far as which way this one is going to go, but it may end up being pretty close.
... oh yeah, good thing this didn't post correctly earlier. Welp.
Yeah, so um, if your bandwidth can't handle a lot of megabytes of .gifs, I suggest you run away screaming. If it can, though ...
A couple of years ago, a story dropped in the FWST about how Rafael Palmeiro, the once-celebrated slugger turned pariah, the fan favorite whose legacy -- in the court of public opinion, at least -- was blown to smithereens by his positive 2005 test for stanozolol, had basically vanished from the public grid. He was living out a fairly quiet existence in Colleyville, dabbling in real estate (albeit with mixed success), and, I suppose, had arrived at a state of peace with the fact that he had been ostracized by baseball.
Not too terribly long thereafter, we discovered that a whole hell of a lot of people used PEDs, including some others from Palmeiro's era who were considered to be first-ballot HOFers. Time has passed, the prevalence of PEDs in baseball for many years before the "steroid era" has become better known (as well as the number of guys who were users, but were simply never ID'd and outed publicly), public scorn over the matter has subsided ... and, at this point, I think you could walk up a lot of baseball fans on the street and ask them about whether they would allow PED-tainted guys into the Hall, and they'd say "yeah, sure." Or "I don't care." Something like that.
I get that there are people who still care about wanting to keep the HOF 'clean,' but let's not pretend like this is a purely black-and-white issue and that guys who came through the game during the 60s-80s (or even before) were paragons of virtue who didn't attempt to improve their games through artificial means, because ... uh, yeah, they kind of did.
All of which brings us to today, as Raffy has gone public with his support for Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens being inducted into the Hall:
"You're talking about, in my opinion, probably the best pitcher of all-time and the greatest player of all time," Palmeiro said. "Keep them out and then the Hall of Fame has no credibility."
[...] Palmeiro said his career numbers -- 569 home runs and 3,020 hits in a 20-year career spent mainly with the Orioles and Rangers -- don't even stack up to Clemens and Bonds, two others who played during the game's steroid era.
"We're talking a different level of player," Palmeiro said. "Clemens and Bonds, 10 years before they retired they were the best players in the game. These guys dominated the game before anything was ever mentioned about anything.
"So, it's going to be interesting. I don't know if they're going to get in or not. But I'm sure they'd say the same thing. They didn't play the game for the Hall of Fame. They played the game because they loved to play the game as kids growing up and it was their career, it was the way they made a living for their families and that's what's important."
So, there's that. I expect a healthy amount of "look at that cheater supporting other cheaters!"-type comments to crop up in response to this story, and maybe another round of morally indignant columns from the gatekeepers of the HOF (never mind that many of these same BBWAA writers once turned a blind eye to the very issue that they now hammer), but I don't exactly disagree with Raffy's overarching point. I also expect that, at some point, the old guard is going to move out, the new guard is going to move in, attitudes are going to change, and guys with no-doubt credentials like Bonds/Clemens will get their induction. It may not happen any time soon, but I'm willing to bet that it'll happen someday.
Now, I'm not sure where that leaves Raffy, given the perception that he was more of a compiler than a truly dominant player ... but, at some point, his HOF case is going to be judged more on his merits as a ballplayer than on his positive steroid test and what Jose Canseco wrote in his book.
Some years back, an e-mailer wrote into the Hardline and suggested that, for all of their whining and complaining about various things on the show, they might as well start a segment expressly dedicated to such matters called "Bitching About Life In General." There's a bunch of little Rangers-related stuff floating around out there right now that could fall under the heading of a similarly named segment called "Bitching About The Rangers In General," and this post came into existence, and here we go:
● Jon Paul Morosi and Anthony Andro have both savaged Roy Oswalt in separate columns. Kevin Sherrington wrote a "be a pro or get your ass cut" article, but managed to slip in a compliment for Michael Young, who he says "tucks in his ego every time the Rangers ask him to move." Okay.
● Ben Rogers apparently spoke to some players in the clubhouse about Oswalt, and the sentiment was that Oswalt was being selfish and not acting like a team player. He also called Oswalt a "cancer" on Twitter, so, in spite of the Rangers' insistence that they were going to work this out, it sounds like the situation is still deterioriating.
● Per the Startlegram and ESPN, neither Ron Washington nor Nolan Ryan has spoken to Roy Oswalt about the "incident," and neither have any plans to do so at this point in time. I find it hard to believe that Wash hasn't broached the subject with Oswalt once since then, given that it's kind of important for him to know who's going to be available for him and who isn't on a given night.
Also, in the above Andro piece, he mentions the bizarre timeline on the date of Oswalt's "demotion" where Wash told the media that Oswalt had taken the news of his move to the bullpen "like a pro," and then, a bit later in the afternoon, a reporter approached Oswalt about it, and Oswalt said that he hadn't heard about being moved to the bullpen. This whole thing is beginning to reek of deceit and mutual distrust.
● I'm not sure how the #FreeMikeOlt club is going to feel about this:
Olt was not in the lineup on Monday, but Washington said he would play on Tuesday, when Red Sox left-hander Jon Lester takes the mound. Washington also said Olt will play the field.
The skipper said he doesn't want to use Olt as a designated hitter at this point.
"He's too young to DH," Washington said.
Also, the Rangers get Lester tonight, but aren't scheduled to face another lefty through at least the end of the weekend. That means that if Wash is really going to obstinately stick to his plan of only using Olt as a platoon bat and as a means of spelling Adrian Beltre at third base against right-handers, he's not going to play from Wednesday-Sunday ... unless, that is, Beltre gets another day off. But Beltre just got a day off from the field on Sunday.
So, in other words, I'm expecting that Olt, after tonight's game, won't play for the next five days. If that expectation proves true, well, that's ridiculous. Olt is better than a platoon bat.
● Remember how I wrote this morning that Darvish was conveying a sense of not really knowing how to get himself back on track? Per Richard Durrett and friends:
Darvish said it's difficult to "turn the page and become a new pitcher on one single day," but he's trying to get back to what he was doing in Japan. He said he went to the field earlier than he has this season and reverted back to a routine he used to follow in Japan. He said that while the results weren't there, he's going to continue to work on it.
"I've tried a lot of different things, but in the end, the Rangers acquired me for the pitcher that I was, that I am in Japan," Darvish said. "Just looking back on it, preparing and pitching the way I can, both mentally and physically, is something that I want to bring back and try to continue to do in my next outing."
So, he's going to continue working on it, but he really isn't sure whether he's working on it the right way, or if it's going to effectuate any change for the better. That's how I read this, anyway.
● The Startlegram quoted Michael Young as saying this yesterday:
Young also has noticed his walk total is down this season. He went into Monday's game with only 18 walks in 444 plate appearances. Throughout his career, Young has drawn about 45-50 free passes a season.
"I'd like for them to be higher, and I expect they'll get higher as the season goes on," Young said.
Just so we're clear here, it's early August, and Young has still drawn just one walk since the All-Star break (July 29th). I'm glad he recognizes that there's a problem, but the fact that he "expects [his walk rate] will get higher as the season goes on" does not inspire one whit of confidence. Two-thirds of the season is gone already.
Young also has the second-lowest wRC+ of any qualifying designated hitter IN THE HISTORY OF THE DESIGNATED HITTER POSITION (h/t thermhere). But, hey, he has finally mustered a OPS just over .700 for a stretch of about a week, and that might be a sign of him being close to going from historically bad to, you know, just really bad, so he's gotta keep playing ... every single day.
● Josh Hamilton (.207/.207/.276 in 29 PA in August) still isn't hitting. I think he's broken, you guys. Hurts to miss that one.
More good quote-gathering work by Evan, who's getting stuff that I haven't seen posted by the other beat guys as of yet (I guess as long as everyone gets a piece of the pie, it's all good). Here's Wash talking some more about the squeeze play, and, specifically, his criticism of Elvis Andrus after yesterday's game.
Washington said Andrus reached for a slider that bounced in the dirt, but said he could have – and should have – done more than simply reach. Washington emphasized that he wasn’t upset with Andrus, but did explain what he meant by his general criticism Sunday.
“He could have done more,” Washington said Monday after conversing with Andrus about the play. “He could have gone down with his legs, crouched more, to get it. You have to do everything and anything possible to get to the ball or to distract the catcher. I think the thing he did was expect a good pitch to bunt too much. When you are sac bunting, you look for the good pitch and only the good pitch, but when you squeeze, you are bunting anything, so the good pitch is an automatic, but the bad pitch is what you have to be prepared for.”
I've watched that .gif about 15-20 more times, and I guess I just don't get it. The bottom fell out of that pitch near the very end of its path to the plate, and Elvis just couldn't get the bat there. If you think he should have lunged across the plate and face-planted for it, and that him not doing so constituted a lack of full effort, then, yeah, okay, but I don't like Wash chastising Elvis for not doing enough and also him "expecting a good pitch to bunt too much." If Wash was that concerned over Elvis getting a bad pitch to bunt and him screwing it up, then I don't know why he had the squeeze on in the first place. I also think that even if Elvis executed a full-body lunge, that he probably has a very, very hard time getting the bat on the ball given its location and late vertical break.
The other thing that really irks me, though, is Wash dinging Elvis's level of effort in the media like that, when he's having arguably the best season of any player on the team. You can express your frustration over the failed squeeze without doing that to Elvis, and convey those other thoughts to Elvis about "doing more to get the bat on the ball" in private. You don't have to do that in public. It rubs me the wrong way. I don't like it.
Also, we have Evan quoting Michael Young and Wash on MY's start at shortstop tonight:
Washington said the decision had nothing to do with Gonzalez’s costly error on a double play ball in the 10th inning Sunday, but rather had more to do with C Geovany Soto. Washington said he wanted to get Soto in the lineup to get some at-bats at Fenway Park before he catches Ryan Dempster on Tuesday. But Washington had C Mike Napoli behind the plate. That left only DH for Soto.
Washington said he wanted to keep Young in the lineup, especially after he went 9-for-27 in his previous six games to show signs he’s coming out of his two-month malaise at the plate. Hence, the decision to play shortstop.
“I haven’t gotten much work there,” Young said, “so it will be a little bit of a crash course, but I’ll try to get re-acclimated to the position.”
Said Washington: “I know he hasn’t played there in a while, but I think it’s a little like riding a bicycle. Even if you haven’t been on one for a while, once you’ve learned how to ride, you don’t forget.”
9-for-27, but .333/.333/.370. Same old story -- when you're not drawing walks and you're not hitting for power, these little "hot streaks" really don't help much at all. As for the Soto/Napoli/Gonzalez thing ... gugh.
Ron Washington is really confusing sometimes. This is one of those times.
Here, once again, is the .gif of the play from the front page:
And here, once again, are Wash's post-game comments:
"It’s a squeeze play. You go down with your legs and do whatever you have to to make contact. I know it’s a bad pitch, but you’ve got to get to the ball any way you can. ... The situation was perfect. We’ve got the go-ahead run at third and the guy who can really handle the bat at the plate. I wanted that run. It didn’t work out. We’ve been pretty successful with them; we finally didn’t get one."
And here are two polls on the matter, because I just love running this stuff into the ground:
Here are all of the 2010, 2011, and 2012 sacrifice bunt attempts with at least a runner on third base. In other words, here are all of the squeeze plays that the Rangers have attempted from 2010-present. Click on a year to see the data. It's good to show your work.
Not including yesterday, I count 15 squeeze attempts over that period. Julio Borbon has been responsible for four of them, Elvis Andrus for five of them, Craig Gentry for five of them, and Alberto Gonzalez for one of them.
I also count 11 of those squeeze attempts coming with one out. The other four came with no outs.
And over that 2010-12 window, 13 of those 15 squeeze plays brought the runner home from third. One failed because Gentry hit a foul pop out on the bunt attempt and the runner (Yorvit Torrealba) was caught off third base in a man-on-third, one-out situation. The other failed because Gentry apparently didn't bunt the ball to the right spot and the runner at third was forced out at home in a bases-loaded, no-out situation. The other 13 brought the runner home from third base, and five of those 13 squeeze attempts also resulted in the bunter reaching base safely on a single.
So, in other words, Ron Washington presumably considers 13 of those 15 squeeze attempts to have been successful. And Andrus hadn't failed at one yet, and is also the most accomplished and experienced bunter (heh) on the team right now.
I'm not saying I agree with yesterday's squeeze call (I don't, really), but the more information you can bring in when trying to externally evaluate a decision like that, the better.
Tricky question to answer. We could use IFFB% rate, but that doesn't factor in all of the pop flys that a batter hits just beyond the infield dirt that we still tend to regard as pop ups. For the record, Kinsler's infield fly rate last season was 10.9%, and it's 11.8% this year.
So, let's take this a little further. On the left is his 2011 air out spray chart, and on the right is his 2012 air out spray chart. I had to make a judgment call on the line between a conventional fly ball out to the outfield (which still sucks, but at least you can say that the hitter hit the ball at a better angle/with more power/etc.), and a fly ball out that was caught in the infield or just beyond. I picked a very arbitrary line based on my own intuition; if you don't like the line I picked, you can pick your own line and eyeball it or some such:
;)
;)
On the left are the air out results from Kinsler's first 483 PA from last season. On the right are the air out results from Kinsler's 485 PA from this season (current through today).
In 2011, I count three foul ball air outs, 34 fair ball air outs inside the ring, 1 error (which should have been an out), and six air outs that are mostly on the line/inside the ring. That's a total of 44 pop outs in 483 PA.
In 2012, I count one foul ball air out, 37 fair ball air outs inside the ring, and four air outs that are mostly on the line/inside the ring. That's a total of 42 pop outs in 485 PA.
In that regard, Kinsler has been extremely consistent ... the overarching problem, of course, is that he's not hitting nearly as well this year as he was last, as his wRC+ has fallen from 128 in 2011 to 114 in 2012. And, with that being the case, despite the slightly greater quantity of air outs/pop outs last season, you prefer 2011 on the whole.
Interesting results, though ... and, for what it's worth, Kinsler's 131 air outs this season is the second-highest mark in baseball, behind only J.J. Hardy's 141. Last year, he had 211 air outs, which was far and away the highest mark in baseball ... but he had a monster year, so, you know, there's that.
Quick, somebody get flight tracker going!
Cliff lee did NOT clear waivers
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) August 3, 2012
As Jamey wrote this morning, there are three options here:
- Work out a trade with that other team – within 48½ business-day hours of the closing of the waiver period (so by 1:30 ET on the day in question). If no trade is completed, the window shuts and neither the claiming team nor any other may trade for the player during the season.
- Stick the other team with the player by simply conveying the player’s contract – which the other team doesn’t have the right to decline. Randy Myers (1998, Blue Jays to Padres) and Alex Rios (2009, Blue Jays to White Sox) are two examples of this very rare result.
- Revoke waivers and pull the player back (a second run through revocable waivers is not permitted – waivers would be irrevocable in that case). This is what happens more than 90 percent of the time, and before the Twitter age we almost never heard about it.
So, if it's Texas that placed a claim, well, everyone can freak out I guess.
If it's not Texas that placed a claim, they're not getting him yet during the 2012 season (which would likely be the case even if Texas DID place a claim).
And, if the Phillies were so inclined, and if their financial situation is dire enough, they could dump Lee and his entire contract on the claiming team.
The overwhelming likelihood, though, is still that Lee goes nowhere.
Update: Per T.R. Sullivan, the Rangers did not claim Cliff Lee. There are also unconfirmed reports that the Phillies pulled Lee back off waivers, although none of the mainstream guys have yet confirmed that fact.
Update: Jon Paul Morosi says it's the Dodgers. There is some thought that they are the one and only team in baseball with the kind of payroll situation and revenue streams that would be required to take on the Lee obligation, but it still seems very unlikely that Lee is moved anywhere.
And with that, the Cliff Lee-to-Texas speculation ends ... for now.
2. Cliff Lee to the Texas Rangers in exchange for 3B Mike Olt and RHP Cody Buckel
The Texas Rangers need a No. 1 starter to match up in the postseason with the Detroit Tigers’ Justin Verlander, the White Sox’s Chris Sale, the Tampa Bay Rays’ David Price, the New York Yankees’ CC Sabathia or the Los Angeles Angels’ Jered Weaver. General manager Jon Daniels tried to pry Zack Greinke away from the Milwaukee Brewers before he was ultimately traded to the Angels.
With Felix Hernandez not on the trade market, the only No. 1 starter that could be had is Lee of the Phillies. Mike Olt would solve the Phillies’ third base position and fifth spot in the lineup for the next decade while Buckel should develop into a middle-of-the-rotation starter. With a revised rotation of Lee, Dempster, Harrison, Darvish and Holland, the Rangers would be poised for a third chance at a World Series championship. This would be a painful deal for the Rangers -- their championship window is open right now and it could mean the difference between being the first world champion Texas Rangers squad rather than remembered as baseball’s version of the Buffalo Bills.
Different package, same story -- based on every report we've heard up to this point, there is an exceptionally small middle ground between TEX/PHI (if there is one at all), because even though this package is probably appealing to the Phillies, they're likely not willing to eat the 30-40% chunk of his remaining obligation that it would take to seriously advance the trade discussions, and the Rangers are probably quite loathe to give up that kind of talent in the first place. I don't think there was a match before the deadline, and I don't think there's a match during the waiver period, either.
The other big thing out there today is the noon deadline -- which has already come and gone -- where a team can submit a waiver claim on Lee for the purpose of working out a trade; if no team submitted a claim, the Phillies can reopen trade discussions on Lee, although the restrictions are quite a bit more onerous. I guess I just don't see anyone submitting a claim, and if the Phillies weren't serious about moving Lee last month, I don't know what would compel them to do so this month ... unless some potential Lee buyer out there has become a whole lot more desperate in a very short span of time, or unless the Phillies have realized in just the last few days that they really, really need to rid themselves of the bulk of that future obligation.
And I just don't see the Rangers being involved here. I don't see it happening this winter, either. I think that ship has sailed.
Joey Matschulat