Hiroki Kuroda Invokes No-Trade Clause; Will Stay In L.A.

Per CBSSports.com's Danny Knobler:

The Yankees can cross Hiroki Kuroda off their list.

The Red Sox, too. And the Rangers? Yeah, you too.

According to sources, Kuroda told Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti on Saturday that he would prefer to just stay put, and will not agree to waive his full no-trade clause to accept any deal. Thus, Kuroda will remain a Dodger for the rest of the season.

The Rangers had been one of the supposed four finalists in the hunt for Kuroda, but this effectively ends all talk of that ... Knobler says that Kuroda had a house in the Los Angeles area and "couldn't imagine himself" being in any other team's uniform, so this sounds like a situation where he couldn't have been swayed from his decision with monetary enticements.

As far as I'm aware, the Rangers are no longer in the rumored discussion on any starting pitcher other than some very vague talk about the Rangers wanting John Danks included in a Matt Thornton-to-Texas deal if the White Sox were to want Derek Holland back.

Joe Wieland Throws A No-Hitter

Double-A Frisco right-hander Joe Wieland has thrown a no-hitter down in San Antonio tonight, going nine innings and facing the minimum 27 batters while yielding only a fourth-inning walk (which was promptly eliminated on a strike-'em-out-throw-'em-out double play to end the inning). As far as I'm aware, Wieland is the first RoughRiders pitcher to throw a no-hitter since Matt Harrison tossed a seven-inning no-hitter against (ironically) San Antonio at Dr. Pepper Ballpark in May 2008.

According to friend of the website Josh Bowe, who's currently interning for the San Antonio Express-News and covered tonight's Missions game, there were a number of scouts in attendance at Wieland's start tonight, including a delegate from the Baltimore Orioles. Insert Koji Uehara speculation here.

In light of his massive success (and really, this entire season has been huge success, given that he's 21 and dominating at Frisco to the tune of a 1.59 ERA and 29 strikeouts against just 10 walks and two home runs in 37.1 innings, after posting an otherworldly 96-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio earlier this season at High-A Myrtle Beach), Kevin Goldstein has shared the following remarks on Twitter: "I talked to a team early this week that told me the Rangers were very high on Wieland and very reluctant to talk about him in deals. ... Last scout I talked to saw Wieland recently and had him comfortably in low 90s and bumping 94, more 88-91 last year."

Back at the beginning of June, Jason Cole and Jason Parks ranked Wieland as the 11th-best prospect in the system, with Cole issuing the following comments: "A command and control specialist with at least solid-average stuff, Wieland hasn’t reached Double-A yet (note: he got the call to Frisco in late June), but he is a major league starting pitcher waiting to happen. The 21-year-old has a four-pitch mix that includes an upper-80s, low-90s fastball, an above-average curveball, a newly developed slider, and a changeup. While he lacks elite projection, he should develop into a good innings-eating, middle-to-back of the rotation starter."

And, of course, there was some discussion quite a while back (spring training 2009, I believe) about how Nolan Ryan had personally intervened as far as offering guidance to Wieland.

A very exciting development, to be certain, and perhaps a very well-timed development, depending on which teams have been eyeballing Wieland the hardest and what they may have to offer the Rangers.

Classic Kenny Rogers Video

I originally uploaded this video a year or two ago when I happened upon an old VHS tape from around 1999 where I had, for some reason, recorded a segment on Kenny's perfect game from the Rangers' old flagship station, KXTX 39 (the station that Tom Hicks originally had designs on turning into a sports superstation) ... and since this is the anniversary of that perfect game, I figured somebody would enjoy some classic video from that night, complete with commentary from Junior Miller:

[Direct link available here.]

Craig Gentry To The Disabled List; Taylor Teagarden Recalled

Per Anthony Andro. The Rangers have apparently not yet decided whether to transfer Gentry to the new seven-day disabled list for concussions (there is some form of a head injury going on here, although there seem to be conflicting reports on its nature, but I guess we're talking about a mild concussion that's lingering from his collision at second base four days) or the 15-day disabled list. Endy Chavez is probably your everyday center fielder in the interim, now that he's minus a platoon partner.

Today's small sample size alert: Craig Gentry has posted 1.4 wins above replacement in a span of just 97 plate appearances.

Rest In Peace, Hideki Irabu

Dead of suspected suicide in his California home. He was 42 years old.

From April 17th through May 15th, 2002, Irabu was 10-for-11 in save situations as the Rangers' closer while allowing only one earned run on eight hits and five walks against 11 strikeouts over 14 innings. From that point forward, he allowed 21 earned runs over 19.2 frames, and found himself relieved of his active roster spot in mid-July after allowing the deciding run in a 4-3 loss at Minnesota.

It was his last major league appearance.

Keith Law On Trading For Relievers

This won't come as anything especially new or insightful for the people who have a good understanding of the volatility inherent in relief pitchers, but Keith Law has a good column out there right now (behind the Insider paywall) that takes a deeper look at the problem with trading young assets for relief pitching:

Within seasons, reliever performance can be volatile, both because of the nature of relievers and the small samples involved in that role. Consider some recent evidence: Of the 40 relievers who had at least three saves in the first half of 2010, 19 had higher ERAs in the second half, including Manny Corpas, who threw just 15 innings after the break before having Tommy John surgery. Of the 19 relievers whose second-half ERAs were higher, 13 saw spikes of over a run, and four -- Alfredo Simon, Matt Lindstrom, Jonathan Broxton, Jose Valverde -- saw spikes of at least three runs. Bobby Jenks, Fernando Rodney and Leo Nunezwere in the group with second-half ERAs a run or more higher than their first group, which at least shows that the phenomenon is not limited to garden-variety middle relievers, but can infect capital-C Closers as well.

It's too hard to predict a half-season of reliever performance no matter how good he is, even if you're staring at his basic stats while trying to do so.

I asked database guru Dan Szymborski to run some more rigorous queries to look at reliever volatility, and the results were pretty similar. In one query, we looked at relievers who changed teams midyear after throwing at least 30 innings with a sub-4 ERA for the first team. Of 166 pitchers, 108 saw their ERAs rise after relocating, with 68 posting ERAs for their new clubs a run above their ERAs for their former clubs, and 40 going up by at least two runs. Even eliminating pitchers who threw under ten innings for their new clubs doesn't alter the percentages. And there were a number of spectacular disasters on the list, like Eric Gagne in 2008 (ERA of 2.16 for Texas and 6.75 for Boston), Jon Rauch that same year (2.98 for Washington, 6.56 for Arizona), and Kyle Farnsworth in 2008 and again in 2010.

The philosophy that says not to invest heavily in relievers is about more than just avoiding overvaluing them in midyear deals, as we've seen plenty of absurd contracts handed out to free-agent relievers in recent years, including Lyon, Scott Linebrink, and Joaquin Benoit. (In fact, the idea for this article came from a very simple study I did in my last offseason with Toronto to show why we shouldn't give B.J. Ryan a four-year deal. I guess it worked, as we didn't give him four years. We gave him five.)

Dan looked at all relievers in the past ten years who threw at least 60 innings in one season with an ERA under 3 and then threw at least as many innings in the following season. In the group, 133 of the 172 relievers (77 percent) saw their ERAs rise in year two, from as little as 0.04 (Mariano Rivera, 2009 to 2010) to as much as 3.89 (Gabe White, 2000 to 2001). A small rise in ERA isn't necessarily a big deal, but 65 of these relievers (38 percent of the total) saw their ERAs rise by at least a full run from Year 1 to Year 2. And that sample doesn't include the pitchers who got hurt or lost their jobs in Year 2.

Expand the sample to pitchers who posted an ERA under 4 in the first year, still using the 60 IP threshold, and the results are better, but hardly encouraging. Of 340 pitchers who met the criteria in the 2000-09 period, 217 saw some rise in ERA, and 91 (27 percent) saw a rise of at least a full run.

That's a one-in-four chance that the reliever you just acquired will see his ERA spike, even if you know for a fact that he won't get hurt.

The takeaway here isn't just that teams should beware of overpaying for relievers in midseason trades or in free agency, but that noncontending teams should always look to trade high-performing relievers if they can do so for more predictable assets in other roles.

Now, of course, there are more variables injected into the equation depending on the relief pitcher that you're talking about ... a guy like Heath Bell, for example, should also recoup compensatory draft picks once he's played out his two-month string (and whatever post-season action happens to follow), which adds quite a bit of value to the relief asset that you're acquiring. If you dig beneath that layer and look specifically at the player, however, you're going to find that Bell isn't a very good bet to maintain his present clip of run prevention in a different environment ... and that's probably true of most of the relievers in this market.

A Poll On Rumor Reporting

I was reading through Jamey's rumor reportage early this morning, and was struck in particular by one otherwise innocuous line:

"Knobler believes the Yankees have the “best shot” at acquiring Ubaldo Jimenez. But Troy E. Renck (Denver Post) emphasizes that the chances of a Jimenez trade “remain slim.”

That comes on the heels of something I picked up on a few days ago, which was that the local Rangers beats have really downplayed the chances of Texas acquiring Carlos Beltran, whereas the national media has been all over the Beltran-to-Texas rumor for ... what, 7-10 days, if not more?

And, of course, what you're most likely looking at here are guys on the local beats (e.g. T.R. Sullivan, Evan Grant, Troy E. Renck, and so on) procuring the vast majority of their information directly from sources employed by the teams that they cover, whereas the national writers cast a much wider net and have contacts throughout baseball that are capable of dispensing information. The end result seems to be that guys in either group end up dishing out rumors or abortive offers that the other group may not have ready access to (e.g. Sullivan's report that Oakland wanted Martin Perez and more for Andrew Bailey), and that you get a much wider array of sensational rumors from the national guys, whereas the local guys are far more conservative and cautious in what they report.

What I haven't completely decided on, however, is which group I should trust more when it comes to trade rumor reportage, and which group has a higher success rate on reported rumors actualizing as trades. And so, here's a poll question on it. If you vote incorrectly and/or want more poll options and whine about it afterwards, I'll ban you forever:

Steve Busby On C.J. Wilson

Courtesy @kmarchelle on Twitter, who published this video on Youtube last night of C.J. Wilson's post-game interview, and Steve Busby's ensuing rant that stopped everyone down shortly thereafter:

I'm fairly certain that the only truly objectionable part of what C.J. said was the "I was 100 percent unlucky" part, but, hey, there you go. And, in his defense, he later openly admitted on Twitter that he "stunk," so I guess that would satisfy Buzz if he were apprised of those remarks after the fact, and Vlade would be happy with that.

The Jerry Meals Incident

If, like me, you were keeping tabs on the insanely long 19-inning affair between the Pirates and Braves out in Atlanta, and then noticed Twitter exploding in the early-morning hours over what is already being called one of the worst calls ever, well, here's what happened:

Click to read more ...

Rosenthal: The Rangers Are "Baseball's New Superpower"

Ken Rosenthal has a piece up this morning that talks about the Rangers being one of baseball's budding superpowers, and about how the team has the money and the pieces to get almost any deal done that it wants to get done, with these choice highlights:

The team gives every indication that it will be quite active again before Sunday's non-waiver deadline, showing varying levels of interest in several big names: Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran, Rockies right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez, Padres closer Heath Bell, Dodgers right-hander Hiroki Kuroda.

Only this time, the Rangers will not require financial assistance.

[...]

Under new ownership, the Texas franchise is starting to resemble the Red Sox, Yankees and Phillies, and not just in its spending power. The Rangers have the money and the prospects to pursue just about any player they want. Yet, the extent to which they will follow through before Sunday's non-waiver deadline is unclear.

The buzz late Monday night was that they were making a strong push for Beltran — buzz that actually started Sunday, but was downplayed by team officials.

[...]

If the Rangers got Beltran, their offense would be powerful enough to mask any pitching issues that fester, at least for the rest of the regular season. The post-season, of course, is different, a time when pitching becomes even more paramount. And the Rangers know that their biggest need, by far, is another late-inning reliever to pair with closer Neftali Feliz.

Thus, the team is pursuing every prominent reliever who is available, and even some who aren't — everyone from Bell to the Nationals' Tyler Clippard, the Athletics' Andrew Bailey to the Marlins' Leo Nunez. No matter what happens with Beltran, and no matter how much club officials might be reluctant to overpay for a reliever, it would be a shock if the Rangers did not address their bullpen.

[...]

Kuroda, like Jimenez, would be switching to the AL, the better offensive league. Still, the Rangers could use the stability that Kuroda or someone like him could offer (Kuroda, like Beltran, could invoke his no-trade clause to block any deal). Ogando and Harrison already are in unchartered territory with their innings totals; few would be surprised if they started to fade.

This is one of those articles that intertwines rumor and opinion, and, ultimately, I'm not sure there's much here that's especially revelatory, but it's a fun little read, the kind that people like to read about their team, and, if nothing else, the line on Beltran actually is interesting, as it helps to explain why the national media's rumor hounds are all over this Beltran-to-Texas thing, while the local beat writers -- who get their information direct from the organization, in most cases -- seem to all be saying that the outfield is way down the Rangers' priority list, and that there really isn't all that much to the Beltran rumors.

Wow, that's a long sentence.

Rangers Trade Rumors For You

I certainly don't purport to be a completionist where trade rumors are concerned, but here are the most significant rumors that I've seen as of early this morning:

● Jim Bowden, late last night: "Rangers trade targets have 1. Heath Bell 2. Carlos Beltran and they have enough prospects and the "will" to trade for both trades ... Mets going to get a top pitching prospect for Beltran, won't have to settle for [second-tier] prospect according to source familiar with talks ... Rangers pitching prospects in play for Beltran and Bell include: Erlin, Wieland, Ramirez, Scheppers, Ross, Loux and Mendez" (Twitter)

● I'm too beaten down by the litany of conflicting stories on Beltran to actually link anything here, but it appears, based off the tone of the articles out there this morning, that Beltran would accept a deal to an American League club provided that they're (a) in first place and (b) that he won't have to play DH. That shouldn't be a problem where Texas is concerned.

● Okay, maybe just one: "They are not getting a top-40-ranked prospect [in baseball] for Beltran even if they eat all the money [left on his contract]," said an executive from a team that expressed interest in the slugger. For example, the Braves want Beltran, but an AL official who has spoken to his Atlanta counterparts said: "There is no way the Braves give them one of their top four pitching prospects: [Mike] Minor, [Julio] Teheran, [Aroldys] Vizcano or [Randall] Delgado." (Joel Sherman, New York Post)

● "The Rangers know that the Mets are trying to move outfielder Carlos Beltran. They have received conflicting reports on whether Beltran is willing to waive his no-trade clause to move to the American League. But they know the Mets are looking hard at the Rangers' farm system and had multiple scouts evaluate pitcher Joe Wieland in his start for Double-A Frisco on Sunday night." (T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com)

● "The chances of Colorado ace Ubaldo Jimenez being dealt are now “around 50/50,” according to one major league source close to the talks. For the moment, though, some of the suitors are dismayed at what they believe are high demands. An executive of one interested team described the current price tag as “unrealistic.” But that could change in the days leading up to Sunday’s 4 p.m. ET non-waiver deadline." (Jon Paul Morosi, FOXSports.com)

Buster Olney On The Deadline

Some interesting stuff from Buster Olney in his morning column pertaining to the trade deadline, and, specifically, how the pendulum has swung over the years towards teams being inclined to desperately hold onto their young talent:

Earlier this month, a veteran official engaged in trade talk with a younger peer about a second-line major-leaguer -- someone far below the pay grade of Carlos Beltran or James Shields.

The veteran official asked for a minor-leaguer in return. Not a top-tier minor-leaguer. Not a second-tier minor-leaguer. Maybe a third-tier minor-leaguer, a prospect with a notable weakness who is generally projected as fringe major-leaguer, at best.

The answer: No.

"When you've reached the point when you're refusing to trade prospects who aren't even close to being your top guys," said the veteran executive, "then all that really is is being afraid to make a mistake. If you're not willing to trade a minor-leaguer who you don't rate highly, then it's just fear. And that's a tough way to do business, because there the opportunities to win don't come every year."

The trade market is very different than it was in the days of Heathcliff Slocumb-for-nameless-prospects. I sent out an e-mail to a number of officials and asked them how it has changed. Here are some of the responses:

From an AL executive: "No doubt the buyers have become exponentially more protective of their prospects. And, because of that, it seems like there's far less activity until the deadline is upon us and someone just has to give in (or no one does and deals don't get made). The K-Rod deal that happens 2-3 weeks before the deadline is certainly the exception these days."

From an AL official: "I'd say one of the biggest changes has been the advent of Twitter and the impact it has had upon the coverage of the deadline and the game. Now there appears to be a race to be first -- instead of being right -- and to get it out there in 140 characters or less. Every rumor is quickly and widely disseminated, oftentimes without regard for its possible veracity. This causes many more potential deals and players' names to be 'out there' and has created an additional element for teams to try to manage."

From an NL executive: "I think teams increasingly value (or over-value their prospects). In general, most GMs would rather make financial errors rather than errors involving prospects."

From an AL evaluator: "Teams value prospects more now than ever. Realistically, most acquisitions at the deadline really don't make a difference. The biggest change is the media attention to it. Pressure is put on teams to do something even when they probably shouldn't."

From an NL evaluator: "The most notable thing for me is the media information and coverage, which can be good as well as bad. The other things is that as contracts have become richer, deals are more about moving money than pure talent exchanges."