I was asked yesterday by loyal reader Andrew to check in on this, and so I shall do so here... the question posed to me concerned how Alexi Ogando has been faring against offenses that have been fortunate enough to get a second look or third look at him this season, with the hypothesis being that his 2.5-pitch arsenal may predispose him to opposing teams catching onto his tricks faster, and being able to sit on the fastball, or some such.
Here are all of the starts Ogando has made this season where those starts have been made at least twice against a particular team (if that's as clear as mud, you should get the idea pretty quickly from the chart):
"So," you're thinking, "what's your point?" I'm glad you're thinking that. Basically, Ogando has made two starts against seven different teams this season, and three starts against five different teams this season.
In seven start No. 1's, he's pitched a total of 46.2 innings.
In seven start No. 2's, he's pitched a total of 44 innings.
In five start No. 3's, he's pitched a total of 27 innings. I'll let you decide whether these samples are adequate for our purposes.
Now that we know how many total innings we're talking about, I can share with you Ogando's per-start averages in his first, second, and third starts against teams that he's faced multiple times this season:
Start No. 1: 6.2 IP, 4.1 H, 1.3 ER, 1.7 BB, 4.6 K, 0.9 HR, 98 pitches, 61 strikes, 65 Game Score, +.215 WPA
Start No. 2: 6.1 IP, 5.4 H, 2.1 ER, 1.6 BB, 5.0 K, 0.1 HR, 101 pitches, 65 strikes, 58 Game Score, +.122 WPA
Start No. 3: 5.1 IP, 7.0 H, 4.0 ER, 1.8 BB, 3.4 K, 0.6 HR, 96 pitches, 61 strikes, 41 Game Score, -0.131 WPA
Now, we still don't know how much of this is random variation/noise, but looking at these numbers, it's very, very clear that Ogando has pitched progressively worse against teams who have gotten second and third looks at him this season. We've answered that part of the question beyond any doubt.
Of course, it's true that Ogando has pitched worse overall as the season has progressed *, and there have been one-start teams that have smacked him around (e.g. the Mets, who touched him for six runs in three innings in late June), and it's also true that we can't really render a final judgment on this until we know how the rest of the starting pitchers around the league fare in those second and third go-rounds.
So, basically, this means something ... unless it doesn't.