A Poll On Rumor Reporting

I was reading through Jamey's rumor reportage early this morning, and was struck in particular by one otherwise innocuous line:

"Knobler believes the Yankees have the “best shot” at acquiring Ubaldo Jimenez. But Troy E. Renck (Denver Post) emphasizes that the chances of a Jimenez trade “remain slim.”

That comes on the heels of something I picked up on a few days ago, which was that the local Rangers beats have really downplayed the chances of Texas acquiring Carlos Beltran, whereas the national media has been all over the Beltran-to-Texas rumor for ... what, 7-10 days, if not more?

And, of course, what you're most likely looking at here are guys on the local beats (e.g. T.R. Sullivan, Evan Grant, Troy E. Renck, and so on) procuring the vast majority of their information directly from sources employed by the teams that they cover, whereas the national writers cast a much wider net and have contacts throughout baseball that are capable of dispensing information. The end result seems to be that guys in either group end up dishing out rumors or abortive offers that the other group may not have ready access to (e.g. Sullivan's report that Oakland wanted Martin Perez and more for Andrew Bailey), and that you get a much wider array of sensational rumors from the national guys, whereas the local guys are far more conservative and cautious in what they report.

What I haven't completely decided on, however, is which group I should trust more when it comes to trade rumor reportage, and which group has a higher success rate on reported rumors actualizing as trades. And so, here's a poll question on it. If you vote incorrectly and/or want more poll options and whine about it afterwards, I'll ban you forever: