Baseball Time in Arlington: A Texas Rangers Blog

Dustin Nippert holds his head after getting drilled by a line drive on Monday, July 19th.Baseball, folks say, is a game of inches. The small stuff matters.

At about 8:56pm Eastern Daylight Time, I was halfway through a morning-after rant. It would question the post-season prospects of a team that doesn't seem to consistently sweat the small stuff. A team that scores five off an opposing starter who's obviously struggling with his stuff, forcing him to throw 57 pitches in his first three innings -- only to let him off the hook by swinging at bad balls and first offerings, seeing all of 10 pitches in each the next two frames. A team that fails to support its own struggling starter, committing two awful errors behind him, and misplaying still another ball into a triple. A team with batters who seemingly refuse to take a walk (or even to adjust to an umpire's calls), even as its pitchers appear to develop allergies to the strike zone at the worst possible moments. A team that continues to befuddle opponents and observers alike on the base paths.

A litany of still more small stuff was yet to come. Vladimir Guerrero and Josh Hamilton hit seeing-eye singles to right against Tigers' reliever Robbie Weinhardt in the sixth, and Nelson Cruz followed with a bad-hop RBI single over short to bring home what, in a perfect world, would've proved to be the improbable winning run. Instead, though, an infield single, a Young error, a Jackson walk, and a run for the Tigers evened the score in the bottom of the eighth.

And then: Young's infield single in the Rangers' half of the ninth -- which, along with Jackson's error on a Vladimir Guerrero pop-up and Cruz's subsequent walk, were rendered meaningless by Chris Davis' futile at-bat with the bases loaded. And the Tigers returned the favor in the bottom of the eleventh. And so on, and so on.

All of which was merely prelude to Cruz's heroics in the top of the 14th. Much more dramatic than a bad-hop single, but still small stuff in its own way, given that his game-winning home run traveled all of 340 feet. Game of inches.

As baseball fans, we know this is how it goes. The countless decisions, plays made, calls missed: they add up through the hours of each game, through the thousands of hours of a season. To get hung up on any one decision, any one play, any one call, is to sacrifice the tapestry for the thread. We know this, but because of the nature of the game, we obsessively tug at each strand, trying to figure out how it fits into the warp and weave -- how it takes its place in the fabric of the sport. We think about it, we argue about it, we write about it. Ceaselessly. It's our pastime.

So if nothing other than mainly frustrating but ultimately winning Rangers baseball had played out after 8:56pm Eastern Daylight Time, I most likely would've canned this piece, rather than posting it. Morning-after rants just aren't that satisfying, in the end, and it's an especially bad idea to start writing them in the midst of a middle-inning meltdown.

But that's not all that happened. Because at about 8:57 p.m., Austin Jackson lined a ball back up the middle against Rangers reliever Dustin Nippert.

It looks innocent, if odd, as line in the MLB Gameday play-by-play:

"Austin Jackson doubles (23) on a line drive to left-fielder Josh Hamilton, deflected by pitcher Dustin Nippert."

A double deflected by the pitcher: strange, maybe, but not especially remarkable. Unless you were watching the game, and had your heart rise into your throat as the line drive in question deflected not off Dustin Nippert's glove or foot, but his skull -- ricocheting into shallow left. Where Michael Young collected it and ran without pause to the mound to check on his teammate's condition. Where the Rangers' trainers joined the full squad of fielders, even before the play had come to a full halt.

Fortunately, we can insert any jokes we might want to make about Dustin Nippert's thick skull here. The lanky right-hander never lost consciousness, and was able to walk off the field with minimal assistance just a couple minutes after everyone converged on the mound. Nippert actually appeared to be trying to convince various people to let him stay in the game, and left with a smile. And about 90 minutes later, news came that Nippert's CAT scan was negative. What first looked like disaster seemed as if would instead be a strange-but-harmless incident in a frequently strange game midway through a frequently strange season.

But I have a hard time simply relegating what happened to a footnote. There's unlikely to be as much written about it, but Nippert's close call, following so near on the heels of July 6th's falling fan incident, gave me pause. It was the second time in two weeks that I was, at first take, convinced that I had watched someone die at a baseball game -- the second time in two weeks that I was forced to reflect on just how little the small stuff in baseball really matters, when the stakes get raised.

According to the very limited biographical information I can find online, the 29-year old Nippert has a wife and two young children. He's got a twin brother, and he likes to hunt whitetail deer. To be honest, that's about all I could find about him on short notice, outside of basic demographic information, scouting reports, transaction notes, and stats. Maybe Nippert would prefer it that way.

But as I close up shop on the heels of an 8-6 win that put the Rangers five full games ahead of the Angels in the AL West, I just can't quite get the image of Jackson's line drive hitting Nippert in his head out of my head. I can't quite stop myself from dreading what a few inches might've wrought.

It was another reminder that in the end, the small stuff is, in fact, just that.

Game of inches.

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Game Recaps,

Monday

Jul192010

Reflecting On C.J. Wilson

Joey Matschulat |

Monday, July 19, 2010 at 7:00 AM |

C.J. Wilson deals a second-inning pitch against the Indians on Tuesday, July 6th.No, Chicken Little, the sky isn't falling ... well, not yet anyway. That formidable second-half schedule is looking just a little less ominous after swiping three out of four from the Red Sox in baseball's oldest shrine, and the visions of impending disaster evoked by the Rangers' four-game misadventure against Baltimore have, for now at least, been forgotten. If there's actual value in having a 'short memory' baseball-wise, this was definitely one of those situations where it acted as a virtue.

Arguably the second-most impressive feat achieved during this past series -- after Bengie Molina's encounter with baseball immortality, of course -- was C.J. Wilson outdueling elite-caliber southpaw Jon Lester, somebody who is, in many respects, what we wish C.J. could become: a high-strikeout, heavy ground ball-inducing starting pitcher who manages to keep his walk totals in check. Of course, such pitchers are extremely rare and highly coveted, so that never should have been (and never was) a realistic/fair expectation for Wilson, and at this point, it seems fair to surmise that it's simply not in his nature to be that sort of pitcher.

Generally speaking, Wilson has always been more than happy to nip at the boundaries and less inclined to relentlessly pound the strike zone, and that has held true to a great extent this season; however, one wonders if this isn't something of a carryover effect from his four-year relief stint, during which it often made plentiful sense to concentrate on throwing so-called 'perfect' pitches -- particularly when summoned into situations where a perfect pitch was required to escape a perilous situation. On the surface, there isn't a clear reason as to why he should alter this approach, as he experienced success with it as a reliever and now, on a run-prevention level, is doing so again.

All that being said, perhaps his corner-nibbling tendencies haven't translated to the starting game quite as well as one might have hoped at the outset of the season. The expectation that Wilson's strikeout rates would fall to some degree was always present, but I don't think a 25-30 percent plunge below the league-average threshold was widely anticipated. And even in a start in which he worked vigorously to shake the low-strikeout label, a game in which he logged a career-high 10 strikeouts in 6.2 innings and did a reasonably good job of hitting his spots around and throughout the strike zone, there was still something worth raising an eyebrow at -- namely, the five walks.

I suppose my greatest concern about Wilson -- that is, aside from any workload-related apprehension I still privately harbor, which may be due to increase as he approaches the unchartered waters beyond the 130-inning mark -- is that his rock-bottom home run rate seems destined to creep northward a bit, and that, working in conjunction with a higher-than-average walk rate, may well spell trouble for his earned-run numbers as the Rangers approach their stretch drive.

If so, his performance going forward will be more akin to that of a No. 3-4 starter than the No. 2-level starter that he has represented to date, and perhaps intensify the debate on whether he would deserve a spot in the three-man post-season rotation ... but that debate is best left for some yet-to-be-determined point after September 1st (or if/when Texas actually clinches something), and if C.J. is actually a "problem" in that he might resemble only a league-average starter the rest of the way, well, that's one hell of a nice problem to have.

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Game Recaps,

Sunday

Jul182010

Sunday Morning Open Thread: Five Questions

Joey Matschulat |

Sunday, July 18, 2010 at 6:00 AM |

1. Did the Cliff Lee trade (unfairly?) elevate expectations around the Rangers to such a degree that some coaching heads -- including, most notably, Ron Washington, whose contract expires after this season -- will roll if the Rangers fail to reach the playoffs? Or has this year's success bought everyone some extra leash, regardless of how the pennant race turns out? [Please keep any and all discussion of this topic civil, and remain cognizant of the commenting guidelines. Thanks.]

2. A two-part question (courtesy of "TS"): (a) Did the Rangers push Justin Smoak too fast, and (b) would the general fan sentiment on the Lee-for-Smoak trade be decidedly more negative if Smoak had been hitting around, say, .250/.350/.450 at the time he was traded?

3. Following up on SI.com's league-wide player poll (in which the Yankees' Joba Chamberlain was deemedthe most overrated player in baseball), who do you believe is baseball's most overrated player?

4. Hypothetical situation: Bengie Molina logs 65-70 percent of the playing time behind the plate throughout the remainder of the regular season and hits approximately .270/.310/.420 (his ZiPS rest-of-season projection), securing Type 'A' free agent status at the end of the season. Do you offer arbitration to Molina after the season, knowing that (a) he'd likely command at least $3-4 million in 2011, (b) would likely accept, and (c) the Rangers' catching situation is still quite unstable in the longer-term scope of things?

5. Peer into your crystal ball and take a stab at this question: "Two years from today, we'll look at Chris Davis and think, "_______________."

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Open Thread,

Saturday

Jul172010

Saturday Morning Rangers Notes: Cliff Lee, Take Two

Joey Matschulat |

Saturday, July 17, 2010 at 6:00 AM |

Well, can't say I saw that coming:

● Controversial Mavericks owner Mark Cuban has confirmed that he's contemplating jumping into the Rangers' sale sweepstakes, attributing his newfound interest to the fact that "the economics have changed" and stating that he would like to work with Chuck Greenberg and Nolan Ryan; Chicago sports consultant Mark Ganis surmised that Cuban would want to be the lead owner, "even if he kept them both [Ryan and Greenberg] on" (Barry Schlacter, Fort Worth Star-Telegram)

[The good news is that ownership, at least in the context of the 2010 season, is no longer an enormously pressing issue after the acquisition of Cliff Lee; the bad news is that we've been talking about this for more than a year now and there's still very little clarity to the situation. There are a number of questions to be asked about Cuban, and I'm probably not qualified to answer most of them by virtue of not being the most NBA-educated writer, but one thing that can't be ignored is that he was able to muster a(n unsuccessful) $1.3 billion bid for the Cubs two years ago. Whichever ownership consortium brings Cuban into the fold enjoys a huge advantage dollars-wise.

Digging a little deeper into the well of opinions on Cuban, some -- including Mark Ganis -- believe he would be able to secure approval from other major league owners, invest whatever money is required to sustain post-season contention and translate his innovative marketing ideas to a franchise that could use some innovation in that regard; others point towards Cuban's propensity for rubbing authority figures the wrong way as a red flag, and there have been plentiful reports asserting that he will never own a major league team because of those concerns. I have a difficult time seeing how Cuban/Greenberg/Ryan could peacefully co-exist, but the latter two might ultimately have to capitulate and bring Cuban aboard if things continue to go awry.]

● The Rangers dispatched a scout to Baltimore last night, ostensibly to keep tabs on rumored trade target Ty Wigginton (whom Jeff Zrebiec intimates could recoup 1-2 "mid-level prospects"); in addition, Texas "may have" greater interest in trading for the Red Sox' Mike Lowell, and the Rangers were purported to have "strong interest" in the Cubs' Xavier Nady as of last week (Jeff Zrebiec, Baltimore Sun; Rob Bradford, WEEI.com; Bruce Levine, ESPNChicago.com)

[I suppose this means we can officially throw Ryan Garko into the "projected Opening Day right-handed bench bat that never got a real chance" bin. At least he'll have some company in Greg Colbrunn. Nady likely costs you next to nothing, but hasn't been his usual southpaw-mashing self this season (and isn't actually hitting at all, for that matter; Wigginton has the highest production floor of the three, but would likely have a target painted on his back once Texas relinquished an interesting prospect or two for him; Lowell's still interesting enough, I guess, and I suspect his post-season experience is something the Rangers would like hanging around the clubhouse, but he's hardly the missing cog.

I think I'm thoroughly sick of both of these subjects. How about something we're not sick of talking about?]

● Cliff Lee will make his second start in a Rangers uniform tonight at Fenway Park (DallasNews.com)

[There's an interesting process vs. results debate to be hashed out vis-a-vis the Lee trade, and it begins with this question: if the Rangers don't make the playoffs, does that automatically render this trade a failure? Considering that this was a trade predicated on the belief that pulling it off would make Texas a materially stronger World Series contender, I think a lot of people are going to fall into that camp ... but, of course, it's far better to evaluate based on the underlying process, and even if you're of the opposite mindset, you'd still need to see what the Rangers did with the resulting compensatory draft picks and so on and so forth. I don't know. Maybe we should refrain from overthinking this and simply sit back and appreciate a master of his craft at work while he's still here to be appreciated.]

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Rumors,

Friday

Jul162010

Highest Ceilings In The Rangers System: Jorge Alfaro (#4)

Jason Parks |

Friday, July 16, 2010 at 6:00 AM |

Jorge Alfaro - Photo courtesy of Scott LucasThe following series will count down the 25 highest ceilings (based on AOFP grades) in the Rangers' minor league system. I have scouted every player on the list in person and compiled the grades using those observations, conversations with respected voices in the Rangers' community like Lone Star Dugout's Jason Cole, and conversations with numerous scouts. Being a subjective exercise, opinions will vary on the individual tool grades, and ultimately, on the final tool projections.

Before we discuss the scouting scale and my methods of evaluation, it's important to note that the AOFP-based rankings below differ from the prospect rankings you may be more accustomed to seeing. The grades here are based on raw tools, and aren't intended to capture each player's most realistic ceiling. Age, league, and other contextual factors are generally excluded, although younger players have more room for development and therefore can receive the benefit of such an abstract view.

It should also be noted that this series was designed to highlight players currently playing in the Rangers' minor league system. For example: a player like Neftali Feliz, whose composite grades would rank him in the top tier of prospects in the system, will be excluded from this list because he is currently on the 25-man roster and not likely to spend any time on the farm.

The Scouting Scale/Methods:

For each tool (hitter) or individual offering (pitcher), a scout assigns the player a grade on a numerical scale that runs from 20 to 80 in five-point increments. 50 is major-league average, and 80 represents the top available score. The sides of the tool bell curve are extremely steep, and there's not much space beneath the curve's tails. In other words, there are very, very few players with 80-caliber tools, and lots of prospects whose tools score a 50. Because of this, scouts may also assign qualitative descriptors (e.g., "fringe-average," "solid-average") to modify scores of 50 that don't quite warrant a bump down to 45 or up to 55.

The scout averages the tool grades to produce an "Overall Future Potential" (OFP) grade. (As a result, OFP also has a 20-to-80 range, but isn't limited to scores ending in "5" or "0.") After OFP is calculated, a scout can adjust it based on his observation, experience, and intuition. This results in an AOFP: the "A" stands for "adjusted." An AOFP above 60 is generally indicative of an elite prospect: a guy with the potential to star in a championship-caliber lineup, rotation, or bullpen.

An AOFP of 55-59 typically implies a prospect that will be a first-division starter, including a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter, front-line reliever, or second-tier closer. AOFPs in the 50-54 range suggest a solid-average major leaguer, including back-of-the-rotation starters and some late-inning arms who fall just below having "front-line" status. Players with AOFPs lower than 50 are usually fringe-average players like utility infielders, fourth/fifth outfielders, and middle relievers. Not a single player on this list will have an AOFP below 54.

The Players:

Name: Jorge Alfaro
DOB: 06/11/1993
Birthplace: Sincelejo, Colombia
HT/WT: 6' 2", 185 lb.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Position: C

Body type: Naturally athletic, but body is immature at present. Appears shorter than listed height, but could eventually reach solid 6' 2"-6' 3" with the frame to support 200-plus pounds. Has strong lower half, broad shoulders, and long legs/arms. Body at maturity could resemble that of a young Charles Johnson.

Intangibles: Hard worker that asks a lot questions; precocious. Transitioning to professional baseball while learning English (didn't speak any English before signing with the Rangers). Suffered setback (injury) at age 16 and worked hard to recover. Nothing but good reports about maturity and work ethic from other scouts, etc.

Abilities: Possesses plus-plus raw strength at the plate; can put on advanced displays of power in batting practice. While at the plate, Alfaro has a slightly open stance, with a 6" front-foot pick-up (foot plant is smooth and lands straight towards pitcher) and good back-foot rotation during load, allowing for good weight distribution and balance. During that load, his top hand starts shoulder high, and has a smooth drift and rotation, keeping his elbows close to the body during the swing. Alfaro is able to generate tremendous torque in his swing, with excellent hip/lower body rotation.

By keeping his hands inside, Alfaro has a quick path to the ball and will accelerate through the point of contact, allowing him to extend and drive the ball with authority; Alfaro can already flash 70-grade power. He shows some pitch recognition and location skills, adjusting his bat plane to square the ball, and using all fields without losing pop. On defense, his skill set is very raw, but very promising. His arm strength is his best attribute, with a legit 70 grade at present, and the projection to exceed that during his physical maturation. His quick feet, quick release, and plus-plus arm strength already give him POP times in the 1.85-2.00 second range, and he projects to routinely POP in the 1.80-second range as his footwork and throwing mechanics improve.

Despite not having plus straight-line speed, Alfaro has quick feet and good balance behind the plate, giving him a good foundation for blocking balls in the dirt and covering the plate. Alfaro is an extremely shy kid, but he doesn't let his age, language barrier, or cultural displacement, affect his ability to receive instruction or adjust to his surroundings.

Weaknesses: Very raw in most phases of the game. Alfaro flashes serious batting practice power, but the transition to game power is still years of development away. As described, when Alfaro can repeat his mechanics, his swing can offer glimpses of its future promise, but at this point he is wildly inconsistent. In game action, Alfaro's timing and balance are thrown off, for a number of reasons, most centering around his mechanical consistency; his front-foot pick-up will range from 6"-12"; his landing will be rushed and not in line to the pitcher; his hips will fire too early; the transition of weight to his back leg with be rushed or won't happen at all; his elbows won't stay close to his body and his swing will get long; he will stay too tall and stiff; he will pull his head during load, etc.

Every 17-year-old hitter has mechanical inconsistencies in their swing, so this isn't anything that development and professional instruction can't address. Because of the mechanical flaws and general inexperience, Alfaro struggles to make regular game contact, and this will probably be the case for several years. On defense, Alfaro shows a 70-grade arm, but his confidence in that arm is more advanced than his execution at this point; he is very aggressive, which is encouraging, but his situational awareness is immature, so he will attempt to back-pick runners and fire the ball around the diamond without consideration for situation or consequence. Alfaro has a tendency to overthrow his desired target, mostly the result of poor footwork and throwing mechanics, but he also rushes the process and will occasionally arm-whip the ball into the dirt.

At the present, his receiving skills are well below average; the tool is very underdeveloped but offers solid-average projection. His game-calling skills aren't even on the landscape yet, but as his knowledge of the position improves, and his confidence in the ability to communicate in both English and Spanish grows, his overall ability to work with pitchers and learn the nuances of the position will begin to develop. Alfaro doesn't offer much in the speed department, although he isn't slow for the position. His field awareness, as it pertains to baserunning, is below average at present, but like all phases of his game, will improve with experience and instruction.

Conclusion: Raised OFP grade three points based on defensive position/offensive projection. The 17-year-old Colombian catcher features the widest gap between present and future grades in the Rangers' system. On offense, Alfaro shows light-tower power in batting practice, spraying ball to all fields and projects to have 70-grade game power in the future. His hit tool is currently underdeveloped, as are most of his tools, but flashes enough promise that I can project him as a future .265-.275 hitter when he reaches developmental maturity.

On defense, his best weapon is his arm, which has a 70 grade at present, but might even grade out higher as he gains more strength. His overall defensive game is well below average, but his physical gifts and positive response to instruction allow for league-average projections at the very least.

Despite being one of the youngest and most unseasoned prospects in the system, Alfaro represents one of the biggest payoffs, with the tools (on paper) to emerge as a perennial All-Star-level player. However, this isn't a player that is going to explode through the minors with accelerated development. Alfaro is so raw that it might take him three seasons to reach full-season ball and to start showing actualized tools in game action, assuming, of course, that his raw tools can make the transition to live game action. Tool-based grade: 61; first-division starter at the major league level; All-Star-level talent.

*It should be noted that even though I was able to watch Alfaro in person (both in instructional situations and game-action) for over three weeks, this scouting report will require constant revision over the next few years. Attempting to put a player this young, and this raw, in a future box is extremely difficult, and it is extremely foolish to assume that this report is the exact recipe for his development. Basically, be patient with this kid. His development is going to follow its own path, so don't allow the future projections to cloud who the player is in the present.

[Check out the entire collection of scouting reports here. Special thanks to Deric McKamey, Josh Garoon, and Joey Matschulat. Follow me on Twitter @ProfessorParks.]

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Thursday

Jul152010

A (Long) Thought On Nolan Ryan

Joey Matschulat |

Thursday, July 15, 2010 at 7:15 AM |

This perhaps constitutes a strange way of kicking off the post-ASB discussion, and I'm not sure this is really anything more than a rephrased-and-cleaned up version of yesterday morning's Clubhouse post on the subject, but ... let's take a shot at it anyway.

There's been a recent spate of Nolan Ryan-centric columns emanating from the local sports media, virtually all of which have emphasized the importance of his continued association with the organization beyond 2010 -- be it in the role of part-owner or team president. What strikes me as interesting, however, is the vagueness with which his actual value to the organization is frequently described; the most oft-invoked buzz word is "credibility," after which it seems as though hyperbole has a tendency to seize control. Case in point: one local columnist recently referred to Ryan as a "straight-shootin', story-tellin', beef-sellin', team-buildin' man." Uhm, okay then?

This isn't an attempt to disparage Ryan's contributions to the Rangers organization over the last two years, but between this influx of columns foretelling doom and gloom if/when Ryan departs the organization, and the recent setbacks his ownership group has incurred in bankruptcy court, I've been thinking about something: Is Ryan truly that integral to the success of the Rangers going forward? In other words, are his future contributions to the organization so important that any scenario in which he leaves is not only bad, but bordering on disastrous?

Frankly, I don't know the answer to this question, and -- make no mistake -- it's a question that deserves more consideration than the casual fan is going to bother devoting to it, because Nolan Ryan, in the eyes of a sizable portion of Rangers fans, can do no wrong. In their eyes, he is faultless. That sentiment, in a nutshell, represents one of the three prongs of Ryan's trident of power: his ability to captivate a certain faction of the fan base with his baseball accolades and supposed "Texas-tough" persona and other miscellaneous virtuous qualities and so forth. It helps sell tickets and it helps enhance the Rangers brand. What it's worth is not clear, but it's worth something.

I suppose we can distill all of that down into the aforementioned "credibility," which leads into his player-side impact. Obviously, Ryan's greatest impact in this area has been his reconstruction of the Rangers' pitching philosophy and the role he played in the implementation of more stringent conditioning programs for pitchers (it's still too early to accurately gauge the impact of these changes), but there's also a line of thought which holds that having Ryan affiliated with the organization makes it easier to attract free-agent pitching talent. This may be the case in a situation where everything else is equal, but from the standpoint of signing pitchers, money -- and, to a lesser degree, contract duration -- are a great deal more influential over a player's decision to sign than anything else. Ryan's presence certainly doesn't hurt in this regard, but I question the degree to which it would facilitate the signing of, say, a top-of-the-market starting pitcher.

As I said yesterday, however, Ryan's greatest value seems to derive from his acting as a shock-absorbing buffer of sorts in the Rangers' organization chart, insulating the front office from the potentially meddlesome actions of ownership and the business side and helping keep these disparate parts synchronized. Two years ago, Mike Hindman -- and presumably others -- predicted that Ryan's single most important function would be him preventing Tom Hicks' latest whims from screwing up the front office's plan for sustainable, long-range success; if that's truly the case, then Ryan has been nothing short of an unmitigated success during his team presidency.

As far as the question I posed about 350 words ago is concerned, I'm still not sure what the right answer is, but then I'm not sure anybody can definitively know what the right answer is. Again rephrasing what I wrote yesterday, I think the single greatest consequence of Ryan leaving the organization -- even above and beyond that of the corresponding P.R. hit, which would, of course, be huge -- would probably be any ensuing disruptive effects on the front office and its ability to continue doing its job to the best of its ability without ownership-imposed interference. From a purely on-the-field standpoint, the current owner-president-GM dynamic is paying nice dividends right now; knock out the first two links, however, and the third may not stick around indefinitely.

[To expand upon this a bit, recall that Jon Daniels wields an out clause in his contract that permits him to walk away if/when ownership changes hands. He has tried to defuse any talk of him leaving the organization, but if he's made aware that new ownership is going to impose sweeping changes throughout baseball operations (and let's face it, new sports franchise owners have a tendency to engage in this sort of behavior), and his protective shield (Ryan) is gone, and there are other teams ready and willing to throw money at him, then wouldn't there be some inclination on Daniels' part to control his own fate and walk away rather than simply waiting to get axed? Think about it.]

It's certainly not a given that Ryan's ouster would precipitate the total break-up of the Rangers' front office; this concern may be totally unfounded, and I may be guilty of helping stir up panic where it's not even merited. Having witnessed this front office finally construct a legitimate World Series-contending ballclub, however, and having seen Daniels quell my lingering concern that he couldn't "finish" building such a team, it's now fairly safe to say that keeping the front office intact and Ryan -- or one of his appointees -- in place as its protectorate is the one big thing that's going to maximize the Rangers' chances of success going forward. Lose Ryan, and the threat level rises.

That, in my mind, is what most needs to be singled out and focused upon in the context of the "Will Ryan stay or go?" discussion. Filter out all of the other hackneyed clichés and metaphors. They're just not worth your time.

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Wednesday

Jul142010

First-Hand Impressions Of Several Triple-A Rangers

David |

Wednesday, July 14, 2010 at 6:00 AM |

Jarrod Saltamacchia's chances of making it back to the majors in 2010 have faded.The Rangers' Triple-A affiliate, the Oklahoma City RedHawks, was in Round Rock for a four-game set against the Astros' Triple-A affiliate, the Express. Below are impressions of seven players and a bonus observation from the Thursday and Friday evening games.

1. Saltalamacchia is a mess.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia displayed a decent eye at the plate, but he made solid contact on only a couple of pitches in the eight or nine at-bats that I saw. And that's the good news on the Rangers' big catcher.

On defense, Saltalamacchia managed to block no more than half of the balls that hit the dirt before reaching his glove and allowed at least a dozen balls to get by him in two nights. Worse yet, he appears to have no confidence in his arm. He flips the ball to the pitcher rather than throwing it. More often than not, he takes a few steps toward the mound and wrong-foots the toss, looking more like he is throwing darts than baseballs. His throws to second base at the end of the pitcher's warm-ups before each inning are decent and he does a good job using his torso and lower half, but he seems reluctant to make a throw to any of the bases during game action. I'm not sure if the problem is mental or physical, but it appears highly unlikely that the Rangers' Opening Day starting catcher will finish the season in the big leagues.

2. Don't forget Mitch Moreland.

Remember a couple of years ago when everyone kind of ignored Tommy Hunter because there were sexier prospects in the Rangers' system? I'm beginning to think that Moreland is going to be the hitting equivalent of Hunter. He won't be a star, but he looks like he could be a very solid major league player.

During the first two games of the series, Moreland hit most of the pitches that he swung at and most of the pitches that he hit were drilled. Among his outs were a screaming line drive down the first base line that got snagged by the first baseman and a fly ball to center field that was caught approximately 400 feet from home plate. He also hit five or six hard line drives down the first base line that were just foul. Except for perhaps Chris Davis, Moreland was the best hitter on either team.

After a slow start, Moreland is re-building his prospect status with production that is getting better by the month (see table). Consistent with his career numbers, Moreland's Triple-A performance has featured a relatively low strikeout rate for a power hitter (16 percent), a solid walk rate (12 percent), and even splits against left- and right-handed pitchers (.855 OPS vs. LHP, .854 OPS vs. RHP):

Perhaps more importantly, he's starting to look like an outfielder. I saw Moreland last summer and he looked like a first baseman or DH playing in right. He got relatively slow jumps on the ball, had a long, lumbering gait, and didn't appear capable of changing directions very well. Moreland looks a lot more athletic this season. He appears less girthy and more chiseled. He looks less like an offensive lineman and more like a tight end or linebacker. He's still a long strider, but he looks quicker to the ball and on the base paths. This is not to imply that he has become a great defensive outfielder or base runner. Moreland lacks the speed and agility to have even average range in the outfield. But I do think that he is on his way to playing a passable right field, especially if he is paired with a speedy center fielder.

3. Endy Chavez is not the answer.

Fortunately, most of us have forgotten the question. Chavez looked okay in left field and weak at the plate. Hopefully, Borbon will continue to be productive as the everyday center fielder in Arlington.

4. Gentry to Seattle?

I'm surprised that Seattle didn't target Craig Gentry in the Cliff Lee trade. He's not at the same level as Franklin Gutierrez, but Gentry has that same sort of effect on hitters. He causes opponents to deflate when they round first base and notice that the line drive that they hit to the gap failed to reach the turf. Pitchers must absolutely love that. Gentry also looked more confident hitting the ball this year than when I saw him last year. He's probably never going to be a major league starter, but Gentry looks like a perfect fourth or fifth outfielder for a team stocked with left-handed outfielders.

5. Michael Kirkman is a legit lefty.

The most compelling argument for relying more on statistical analysis than scouting is that stats are more objective and feature a much larger sample size. And now for my knee jerk, amateur scouting take on Kirkman: "Wow!" His four-seam fastball was 92-93 mph with the occasional 94 thrown in for good measure. His cutter and/or two-seamer was 89-91 mph. Hitters had a hard time getting a bat on either pitch. His slider was also a swing-and-miss pitch, though he had a lot of trouble keeping it close enough to the strike zone to get hitters to swing. His curveball and change-up were show-me pitches.

Kirkman appeared comfortable pitching from the stretch and he maintained his velocity with runners on base. His velocity was consistent through six innings and nearly 100 pitches. He lost the strike zone twice during the game (four straight balls to one hitter and four out of five to another), but otherwise he did a very good job of throwing strikes with his fastballs. If he can come up with a reliable off-speed pitch, Kirkman could be a very good left-handed starting pitcher in the big leagues. If his secondary pitch(es) fail to develop, his four-seam/two-seam/cutter mix should play well out of the Rangers' bullpen.

6. Guillermo Moscoso lost his "Invisi-ball"

During Spring Training '09, Jason Parks dubbed Moscoso's low-90s fastball "The Invisi-ball" based on its ability to magically miss bats. Moscoso's fastball is still a 91-93 mph pitch, but hitters are no longer having trouble getting lumber on it. Of the 70 or so strikes that Moscoso threw on Thursday, I would wager that half were fouled off and another 30 percent were put in play. Of the remaining strikes, no more than three or four were of the swing-and-miss variety. Several hitters worked walks by fouling off multiple pitches with two strikes. Unfortunately, neither his curveball nor change-up functions as an out pitch, which makes Moscoso vulnerable to high pitch counts.

7. Cody Eppley found a ball that disappears!

He didn't throw particularly hard (fastball in the upper-80s and slider in the upper-70s) and he left a lot of pitches up in the zone, but the Express hitters were positively baffled by the side arm delivery of Cody Eppley. In two innings, Eppley produced at least 10 swings-and-misses en route to four strikeouts. Only one ball was hit hard (a screaming line drive that was just foul down the third base line). He's got a ways to go with his command, but Eppley looks like he could fit into a major league bullpen as a right-handed specialist at some point in the future.

8. Scouts are like birds of prey.

I counted 9 scouts behind home plate during the Thursday evening game. There were only 3 present for the game on Friday, which started a few hours after the Lee-for-Smoak trade went public.

31 Comments | in

Tuesday

Jul132010

Tuesday Morning Rangers Notes: I Used To Love H.E.R. ... Err, R.B.E.

Joey Matschulat |

Tuesday, July 13, 2010 at 6:30 AM |

If that four-game disaster against the Orioles didn't serve as the necessary wake-up call to remind everyone that the Rangers, despite still being strong divisional favorites, are not -- and never were -- post-season locks, then perhaps this sobering dose of reality will serve that purpose: Per ESPN.com's Buster Olney, no other above-.500 team in baseball has fewer post-ASB home games than the Rangers (31-of-74), and only one other team in the American League (Detroit; 42) has more games remaining against .500-or-better ballclubs than Texas (41):

● Rangers Baseball Express, the prospective ownership consortium publicly fronted by Chuck Greenberg and Nolan Ryan, has filed suit against the Texas Rangers, alleging that the team breached the purchase agreement struck between RBE and Tom Hicks on May 23rd and claiming that RBE still possesses exclusive purchase rights; in turn, the court-appointed restructuring officer overseeing the case, William K. Snyder (whose power RBE is apparently seeking to limit), has alleged in a "bombshell motion" that the Rangers are working with RBE in their lawsuit against the ballclub (Barry Schlacter, Fort Worth Star-Telegram; Daniel Kaplan, Sports Business Journal)

[Snyder has also received telephoned threats from incensed Rangers fans, which is remarkably stupid, but that's beside the point. Frankly, I'm not clear on the implications of Snyder's allegation, but it appears to have something to do with RBE demanding in its suit that the monetary difference between its offer and the prevailing bid in the scheduled July 22nd auction be given to RBE; this demand will be reviewed during a 1:30 p.m. CDT hearing on Tuesday, and if accepted would advantageously position RBE going down the stretch here, but let's be clear -- the victories for Greenberg/Ryan have been few and far between lately, so any optimism directed towards their camp should be heavily tempered.

In any event, as Phonte of the now-dissolved hip-hop group Little Brother once rapped, "It's the bottom of the ninth with no extra innings ..." for Greenberg/Ryan, with their desperation becoming increasingly apparent in recent weeks. That shouldn't be held against them, as I think any of us would act similarly if we were helplessly watching our dream of owning a professional sports franchise get torn from our grasp, but you wouldn't see that desperation supplant the prior cool-headedness unless they were resorting to last-ditch attempts to salvage the sale. They might still be the nominal favorite to purchase the team, but time's running out.]

● Rich Harden notched a 2.2-inning rehab start for Triple-A Oklahoma City on Sunday; shortly before the All-Star break, Harden mentioned feeling more comfortable with his fastball and mechanics than at any point this season following a 58-pitch bullpen session, stating, "I'm getting where I want to be" (William Wilkerson, Fort Worth Star-Telegram)

[There's no talk of Harden's imminent return, nor that of Derek Holland, but there's an interesting aspect to their respective recoveries and the back of the starting rotation. With Scott Feldman flirting with expulsion from the starting rotation, there's been some discussion of what could actually be done with him ... and, well, the answer is "not very much." You can leave him where he is, or you can pull some disabled-list chicanery, or you can banish him to long relief, and those are really your only three options. With Harden, it's either the rotation, the bullpen or outright release. I'm going somewhere with this.

Four years ago, Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus -- and I may have already made this exact point here previously, but it's worth reiterating -- found that starting pitchers who (a) post high walk rates and (b) low isolated power rates have a tendency to enjoy better performance gains upon conversion into relievers than other starters-turned-relievers. Harden clearly fits part (a), but perhaps not so much with part (b). However, given that he's effectively a two-pitch guy at this point, perhaps there's some degree of sense to assigning him to the bullpen upon his healthy return -- particularly if Scott Feldman is pitching passably well -- and seeing what he can do. Getting Harden to accept it, however, might be a different case altogether.]

29 Comments | in

Monday

Jul122010

Another Look At The Cliff Lee Trade

David |

Monday, July 12, 2010 at 6:00 AM |

Cliff Lee reacts after allowing a sixth-inning home run on Saturday, July 10th.I haven't read all of the articles that were written about the Rangers' acquisition of Cliff Lee, but I have read enough to understand that most sportswriters and Rangers' bloggers like the trade. I'm neutral on the trade, but the reason that I'm okay with it is very different than what has appeared in print and in the blogosphere. As is often the case, I find myself disagreeing with what appears to be some of the predominate opinions among writers and fans. Below are the three opinions that I find to be the most misguided:

1. Cliff Lee gives the Rangers a legitimate ace.

Cliff Lee won a Cy Young Award in 2008 while pitching for the Cleveland Indians. He pitched brilliantly down the stretch and in the playoffs for the Phillies in 2009 and was dominant in two months pitching for the Mariners this year. All of that is absolutely true.

It is also true that Cliff Lee is a control pitcher with a slightly above average strikeout rate (6.8 K/9) and well-below average groundball rate (0.90 GB/FB) for a starting pitcher. As noted in the table below, his fly ball tendencies have caused him to struggle in homer-friendly parks like Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.

Cliff Lee is a Cy Young/MVP-caliber pitcher when he has a big ballpark and a good outfield defense behind him. Cliff Lee can be quite mortal when the fly balls against him begin reaching the seats. Cliff Lee pitched like an ace in the National League during 2009 and in the first half of 2010 while pitching for the Mariners, but unless the Rangers manage his schedule to ensure that he pitches the bulk of his games on the road, he will probably post only slightly better than league-average numbers during the second half of 2010. Some might call that an ace. I call that a decent No. 2 pitcher.

2. The Rangers activity in the trade market shows that they are serious about winning a World Series.

Organizations are more likely to win a World Series if they build a team that will compete over the course of several seasons than they are by trading future assets to improve their chances in a single season. Given the absolute best-case scenario wherein a team is heavily favored in each of its three playoff matchups (60 percent win probability per series), odds are that said team will win the World Series only 21.6 percent of the time in a given season. The best way to improve a team's odds of winning a championship is to increase the number of years that the team participates in the playoffs.

In the case of the Rangers in 2010, Cliff Lee will improve the team's odds of winning any given series, but that improvement is not nearly what is being trumpeted by the media and many fans. The notion that Cliff Lee guarantees two playoff wins per series is comical. As things stand right now, Lee is likely to be matched against Jon Lester in the first round of the playoffs and CC Sabathia in the second round. The Red Sox have hit .257/.333/.430 and scored 4.55 runs per nine innings and the Yankees have hit .288/.340/.469 and scored 5.31 runs per nine innings against Lee.

The Rangers have hit .240/.302/.384 and scored 3.55 runs per nine innings against Lester and hit .272/.342/.394 and scored 4.60 runs per nine innings against Sabathia. In the best case scenario, the Rangers will be slight favorites against the Red Sox, underdogs against the Yankees, and slight favorites against the National League champions. Given the best case, the Rangers' odds of winning a World Series in 2010 are approximately 13 percent.

Unless the Rangers believe that they will have a better chance to make the playoffs in 2011 through 2015 without Justin Smoak (and Blake Beavan and Josh Lueke), then it is hard to argue that trading for Lee helps the team's long-term goal of winning a World Series title.

3. The loss of Smoak and Beavan will be mitigated by the draft picks the Rangers will recoup when Lee signs elsewhere as a free agent.

Vladimir Guerrero, Cliff Lee, and Frankie Francisco are expected to be Type A free agents who receive arbitration offers from the Rangers at the end of 2010. Assuming all three depart as free agents to teams that are slated to pick in the latter half of the first round in the 2011 draft, then the Rangers will get to make seven selections from picks 16-60 in the 2011 draft including the two that they receive from Cliff Lee's departure. Because the Rangers will work with a fixed draft budget, the team will likely avoid drafting players who are expected to be tough to sign and instead focus on players with upside who are likely to sign for slot. That means avoiding players like Matt Purke and Justin Smoak and favoring players like Jake Skole and Kellin Deglan.

If anything, draft pick compensation for Lee will likely decrease the chances that the team will select a player who has dropped due to signability and increase the chances of a 2010 redux wherein the team drafts players who are prepared to sign for slot.

Why The Cliff Lee Acquisition Makes Sense

In reality, the trade for Cliff Lee was an economic decision. By replacing the team's fifth starter in 15 games this season, Lee should increase the Rangers' win total in 2010 by 3-4 games. Three or four more wins for a team that looked to be an 87-88 win team before the trade should be enough to guarantee the Rangers' a post-season berth barring a catastrophic injury or a heroic finish from the Angels. And the economic benefits of a contending season and post-season play are huge to teams like the Rangers that have been out of the playoffs for an extended time.

In recent years, the Playoff Boon has visited three franchises that had experienced playoff droughts similar to the Rangers. As can be seen in the table below, attendance for the Phillies, Indians, and Rockies increased by around 15 percent during the season that they initially contended for a playoff berth and then at least held steady and in the cases of the Rockies and Phillies, significantly increased attendance in subsequent seasons.

A strong second half for the Rangers could mean a 15-20 percent boost in attendance during the regular season and a corresponding $15-20 million increase in revenues from ticket sales and merchandise as compared to 2009. Add in the $2-3 million in revenue that Nate Silver estimates that teams generate in gate receipts, concessions, and merchandise sales for each playoff game and the Rangers could see an increase of $30 million or more in revenues in 2010 over the $180 million that Forbes estimated for the team in 2009.

In his book, Diamond Dollars: The Economics of Winning in Baseball, Vince Gennaro estimated that during seasons that follow a playoff appearance, teams generate an additional $20-50 million in revenues via increased season ticket sales, merchandise sales, and television rights. Teams like the Rangers that have been out of the playoffs for a significant amount of time fall at the upper end of that range because they have greater upside for increases in season ticket sales and fan interest. Assuming that is the case, then the Rangers could find themselves generating upwards of $225 million in 2011. With a reasonable number of contending seasons, $225 million could become the organization's new revenue floor.

Lest you become cynical of big business, it is worth pointing out that the overwhelming majority of teams re-invest newfound revenues in the organization by increasing player payroll and/or increasing the acquisition of amateur talent. A revenue base of $225 million would enable the Rangers to maintain a team payroll of $100 million or more. That increased player payroll could be used to sign players like Andrus, Feliz, Holland, Scheppers, Perez, and Ogando to long-term contracts and to add a reasonable number of free agents when necessary. And if six years of Justin Smoak and the opportunity to develop Blake Beavan into a viable major league pitcher is the price for financial flexibility, then that is a price worth paying.

44 Comments | in

The Season,

Transactions

Sunday

Jul112010

Sunday Morning Open Thread: Five Questions

Joey Matschulat |

Sunday, July 11, 2010 at 6:00 AM |

Cliff Lee delivers a first-inning pitch against the Orioles on Saturday, July 10th.1. Knowing what you know what right now, how would you assess Friday's monster Cliff Lee trade? Was this truly a gamble worth taking, or did the Rangers relinquish so much young talent that they will surely come to regret pulling the trigger on this?

2. After Chris Davis's torrid run at Triple-A Oklahoma City (.354/.403/.555 in 293 plate appearances, albeit with just 23 walks against 64 strikeouts), where do you stand on his future in the Texas organization -- particularly now that Justin Smoak is out of the picture for good?

3. What do you make of late yesterday's report that Mark Cuban has joined forces with Jeff Beck and Dennis Gilbert as the third prospective ownership group vying to purchase the Rangers?

4. A reader-submitted question (courtesy of 'badspellr'): "Are you bothered enough by the disappointments of the 90s and the A-Rod fiasco that you would like another crack at the Yankees in October, or has that experience led you to prefer a different opponent? Or is that period of Ranger history just that, history?"

5. Peer into your crystal ball and answer this two-part question: "During the remainder of 2010, Cliff Lee will ________, and after the 2010 season, Lee will ________."

[Thanks again for all the questions last week. I'll likely turn to that reservoir again next week.]

35 Comments | in

Open Thread,

Friday

Jul092010

On The Rangers' Cliff Lee Trade

Joey Matschulat |

Friday, July 9, 2010 at 9:30 PM |

From a brazenly self-centered perspective, I feel vindicated ... and relieved. Because less than 12 hours after positing that any perceived job insecurity could prompt general manager Jon Daniels to take a gamble that they otherwise might not have taken, and then watching that theory seemingly get shot down by the Yankees' almost-acquisition of Cliff Lee, all the pieces ended up falling into place, and the Rangers locked in one of the majors' five best starting pitchers -- the dominant top-of-the-rotation piece which has eluded Texas for so long. So long ... but no longer.

The trade, which has been confirmed as final and has already received the approval of the commissioner's office despite the Rangers' ongoing financial malaise, sends left-handed ace Cliff Lee, right-hander Mark Lowe and $2.25 million in cash to Texas in exchange for first baseman Justin Smoak, right-hander Blake Beavan, right-hander Josh Lueke and second baseman Matt Lawson. Of these six players, only three are particularly germane to the balance of the deal, those being Lee, Smoak and Beavan; the other pieces were obviously included for varying reasons, but they're clearly not the impact parts that compelled one side or the other to consummate this deal.

[On those other pieces: Lowe, 27, is a high-octane fastball-slider reliever with a propensity for yielding walks; view him as a Chris Ray-esque gamble that may or may not eventually pay off, and definitely won't pay off in the near term, as he's out for the season after undergoing lower-back microdiscectomy surgery on June 15th. Lueke, 25, brandishes a mid-90s heater and legitimate swing-and-miss secondary pitches, but likely also had the most questionable make-up in the Texas organization, and I suspect his sordid incident in Bakersfield last year was a significant factor in his inclusion. Lawson, 24, is an excellent defensive second baseman (per Scout.com's Jason Cole), but is, at this point, an organizational guy with the top-level upside of a utility infielder.]

Lee doesn't require much introduction, I don't think; he's amassed a whopping 17.8 pitching wins above replacement from 2008-2010, employing what is primarily a two-seam/four-seam/cutter/change-up arsenal with elite-level command; ESPN.com's Keith Law more succinctly characterized him last July as "a four-pitch guy with command and control who works deep into games," adding at the time that he was showing a large righty-favored platoon split. Curiously, the opposite has proven true thus far this season, as lefty-hitting batters have enjoyed a nearly 200-point OPS edge relative to their righty-hitting counterparts ... but Lee has also not walked a single left-handed batter this season, and is posting the best single-season strikeouts-to-walks ratio in baseball history, so there's that.

Smoak, as mentioned earlier, is thought of in some circles as an eventual platoon player whose inferior swing from the right side of the plate might force him to drop his switch-hitting ways; I don't know that you can saddle him with the 'platoon player' label after logging fewer than 300 major league plate appearances, but he has yet to prove that he can hit southpaws at any level -- Frisco, Oklahoma City, or Texas. Despite the horrendous luck he has experienced this season, his upside is still that of a perennial All-Star, and his extremely advanced plate patience should buy him as many second chances as necessary, but the total package may not be equivalent to that of a truly elite first baseman.

And what of Beavan? He's a solid pitching prospect, somebody who could conceivably find success as a back-of-the-rotation innings-eater in Safeco Field's pitcher-friendly environment, but resident scouting expert Jason Parks did not assess his ceiling to be among the 25 highest prospect ceilings in the organization, pegging his overall future potential at '54' on the 20-to-80 scouting scale while writing, "Great control, solid-average to plus [fastball], but his secondary pitches aren't major league plus pitches. I still think he becomes a long-man/[fifth-starter] type. Without a major league out pitch, Beavan’s ceiling is very limited."

The Justin Smoak vs. Chris Davis debate -- which isn't even all that relevant anymore -- is one that we can hash out another day, but it seems readily apparent that the Mariners, fixated on acquiring an impact bat, wanted Smoak from the outset, and that swapping Davis into the package for Smoak would have necessitated the inclusion of Derek Holland or Tanner Scheppers. Davis -- and, more specifically, his plate discipline -- frighten me, but I suppose there's a reasonable chance that he can hold down the fort at first base through the remainder of 2010 without devolving into a sub-replacement-level mess yet again, and I think I'd rather take that gamble than lose Holland and/or Scheppers.

This trade stings, but there was no rational reason to believe that it wouldn't. That none of the three players accompanying Smoak were integral in the Rangers' plans is very good; that Texas managed to acquire the best left-handed pitcher in baseball without relinquishing any of its top pitching prospects, however, is laudable to the highest degree. There are several more lenses through which we can evaluate this trade, and I may dig into those in the next few days, but right now, I think we can feel really good about not only the Rangers' chances of completing a deep post-season push, but also the front office's ability to take the proverbial final step. And what a hell of a final step it is.

[For more reactions to The Trade v. 2.0, check out The Clubhouse.]

18 Comments | in

The Season,

Transactions

Friday

Jul092010

NEWSFLASH: N.Y. Deal Collapses; Rangers Acquire Cliff Lee

Joey Matschulat |

Friday, July 9, 2010 at 4:11 PM |

According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Rangers have traded 1B Justin Smoak and three other players to the Mariners for LHP Cliff Lee, RHP Mark Lowe and cash.

4:20 p.m. CDT Update: Scout.com's Jason Cole says it's Smoak, RHP Blake Beavan, RHP Josh Lueke and 2B Matt Lawson.

4:25 p.m. CDT Update: ESPN.com's Buster Olney (via Twitter): "Executives with other teams already are upset that the Rangers are going to be able to improve their team while operating on the dollars of other organizations."

4:30 p.m. CDT Update: The Rangers have announced a 5:00 p.m. CDT press conference to announce the trade, which has now been confirmed as done by multiple sources.

4:35 p.m. CDT Update: Bob Nightengale of the USA Today says the deal came together when the Rangers moved to include Justin Smoak in their offer Friday afternoon.

4:40 p.m. CDT Update: Some people turning up here probably want to read my snapshot reaction. Losing Smoak hurts (and I was actually intending to write a post regarding my position on whether the Rangers should deal Smoak or Chris Davis, and what sort of implications that choice could have on both involved organizations), but there's a certain camp out there -- and they have a point, to some extent -- that argues that Smoak will never be all that decent against southpaws, thereby rendering him a platoon player. I'm not sure I wholeheartedly buy into that sentiment, but it's out there, and if you're part of that camp then it softens the blow of losing Smoak.

Beavan, per BBTiA scouting guru Jason Parks, had mid-to-back-rotation upside for the most part, writing this previously: "53 current OFP (overall future potential), 54 future [OFP]. Great control, solid-average to plus FB, but his secondary pitches aren’t major league plus pitches. I still think he becomes a long-man/5th type. Without a major league out pitch, Beavan’s ceiling is very limited." Lueke and Lawson are both of some interest to varying degrees, but aren't key components of this deal. All in all, I can get behind this trade despite the heavy front-end price being paid. More to come.

4:45 p.m. CDT Update: Per Anthony Andro, Lee will start tomorrow night. Please, please, sell that game out.

4:50 p.m. CDT Update: Ken Rosenthal reports that the Yankees are absolutely "livid" at the Mariners, as they believed they had a deal in place, and then Seattle took it to the Rangers, saying that they would accept if the Rangers included Smoak.

81 Comments | in

Friday

Jul092010

The Rangers' Moment Of Chaos

Joey Matschulat |

Friday, July 9, 2010 at 10:30 AM |

If you -- like myself -- have ever stopped everything down for just a single moment and wondered aloud, "Does this ever end?", permit me to answer your rhetorical plea: No, no it doesn't.

With the fate of the Rangers' ownership precariously hanging in the balance and another round of setbacks being dealt to the prospective Chuck Greenberg/Nolan Ryan ownership consortium, another fascinating wrinkle has been added to the complexion of the on-going madness, as FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal reported very early this morning that general manager Jon Daniels' contract contains an out clause which would enable him to leave the organization after the 2010 season if ownership changes hands.

Daniels, according to a source equipped with knowledge of Greenberg's and Ryan's plans, would be "totally safe" under their ownership, but any semblance of certainty regarding the future holder of majority ownership appears to be on the brink of flying out the window, as a scheduled MLB-supervised July 16th auction has been nixed while the court-appointed restructuring officer (William K. Snyder) overseeing the Rangers' bankruptcy case sets about hammering out new bidding procedures. Said a dejected Ryan of the latest developments: "I don't have a good feeling about things ... It's a good possibility that [the sale of the Rangers to Greenberg/Ryan] might not happen."

[Still in the hunt for the team appear to be Houston freight-shipping magnate Jim Crane and Dallas investor Jeff Beck, the latter of whom appears to have partnered with L.A.-area sports agent Dennis Gillbert. Ryan, for his part, is adamant that he wants no part of any ownership regime other than that which he is currently a part of; Crane would likely attempt to convince him otherwise, and might succeed in doing so, but the chances of ever seeing a Rangers power structure simultaneously comprising Beck/Gilbert/Ryan are about as good as the chances of myself and Jason Parks supplanting Norm Hitzges during The Ticket's 10 a.m.-12 p.m. weekday timeslot, which is to say that they're rather minimal.]

My belief is that there's nothing inherently wrong with Crane/Beck/Crane in the context of prospective ownership, a position borne from the reality that we think we know these guys ... but we really don't. To claim or pretend otherwise is ignorant. It may, however, be the case that any of the three would want to exercise their due prerogative to bring their own people in, and with Ryan -- who would seem to serve as Daniels' protector, in the sense that he currently insulates the front office from ownership -- insisting that he wants no part of those groups after the fact, Daniels and his closest advisors could conceivably be staring down the barrel of a loaded shotgun.

The thing about your head resting on the proverbial chopping block is that such knowledge -- and we can rest assured that Daniels is privy to a heaping load of off-the-record, ownership-related information -- can and does affect how you approach your job, unconsciously or otherwise, which brings a new trade deadline-related element into play. If we run deeper into the month of July and Daniels perceives the chips to be stacked against him as far as still being securely employed by the organization 4-5 months down the line, it's likely going to leave him more inclined to take a shot that he otherwise might not so readily take. I'm not talking about egregiously irresponsible stewardship of the ballclub's young assets; I am, however, talking about doing what is required within good reason to put the Rangers over the top in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes and giving Daniels the opportunity to savor the post-season fruits of his labor.

Granted, there's an already compelling argument to be made for the Rangers taking their shot this year (one which Josh Garoon far more eloquently conveyed on Monday), but invoking the win-now protocol vis-a-vis Cliff Lee would also give Texas a measurably better chance of advancing deep into the playoffs, which would, in turn, make it quite a bit more difficult for an incoming owner to immediately ax the whole of upper management while trying to maintain a positive P.R. image during the delicate early stages of ownership. In other words, the reasons why any lessening of Daniels' job security -- or even the mere perception of such -- could force him into a more aggressive wheeling-and-dealing stance are multifold.

To be clear, I don't know whether Jon Daniels is the right person to oversee this franchise's eventual (hopeful?) ascendancy into late-round playoff baseball. I don't think any of us can truly know that; we can only project his general managerial body of work to date into the future and draw inferences of questionable repute. I also don't know whether he'll still be employed by this organization in six months, whether the scouting department will still be intact, whether Greenberg/Ryan will yet acquire the team or whether Cliff Lee will ever don a Rangers uniform ... because if there's one thing we can be certain of during this moment of chaos, it's that nobody really knows anything.

[Addendum: For those of you who are wondering why I'm still considering Lee available in light of this morning's report of Lee going to the Yankees, well, (a) nothing has been finalized yet, and (b) Newsday's Ken Davidoff is reporting that talks between the Mariners and Yankees have hit a "snag," which, in the baseball rumor parlance, means that it's not over until it's over ... unless it's over.]

26 Comments | in

Friday

Jul092010

Highest Ceilings In The Rangers System: Engel Beltre (#5)

Jason Parks |

Friday, July 9, 2010 at 6:00 AM |

Engel Beltre - Photo courtesy of Jason Cole/LoneStarDugout.comThe following series will count down the 25 highest ceilings (based on AOFP grades) in the Rangers' minor league system. I have scouted every player on the list in person and compiled the grades using those observations, conversations with respected voices in the Rangers' community like Lone Star Dugout's Jason Cole, and conversations with numerous scouts. Being a subjective exercise, opinions will vary on the individual tool grades, and ultimately, on the final tool projections.

The Scouting Scale/Methods:

The Players:

Name: Engel Beltre
DOB: 11/01/1989
Birthplace: Santo Domingo, D.R.
HT/WT: 6' 2", 175 lb.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Position: OF

Body type: Fast-twitch athlete, with wiry frame and long limbs. Excellent physical projection; room for added muscle mass and strength.

Intangibles: Cocky and confident; works hard on the field; knows he is talented, which can be both positive and negative.

Abilities: Beltre shows potential for true five-tool talent. At the plate, his hit tool has plus projection; his hands and overall coordination are elite. Noisy pre-swing movement that start to calm during the load, Beltre allows his hands to slowly elevate then drift into an optimum position, giving him a quick trigger and smooth path to the ball. His contact rates are excellent thanks to his hand-eye coordination and bat control, and should allow him to continue to hit for average as he develops. Because of his fast trigger and bat control, Beltre can still make regular contact when fooled by pitch or on balls out of the zone. His overall approach at the plate is below-average, but his pitch recognition skills are solid, with ability to pick up the ball early out of the hand, especially against LHP.

A fast-twitch athlete with a wiry frame and deceiving strength, Beltre can produce plus bat speed giving him plus power potential down the line. While presently showing more slash than power, Beltre’s natural swing path has a slight upper-cut, giving him the necessary lift to utilize his swing/strength attributes and create 25-30 HR power at developmental maturity. On defense, Beltre has legit CF skills, with the instincts, arm, glove, and range to stick at the position. His arm is plus, with excellent raw strength and a quick release; his arm is strong enough to play in RF at the major league level. His throws have good carry and his accuracy has improved a full grade in the last year. His plus speed and overall athleticism give him above-average range at present, with good instincts and ability to read the ball off the bat.

On the bases, Beltre is still raw and overly aggressive at times, but has the potential to be a stolen base threat at the higher levels. On the make-up front, starting to allow instruction to enhance his skill set, rather than just relying on natural athleticism; raw tools are beginning to actualize into on the field baseball skills.

Weaknesses: Still raw, with wide gap between present and future grades. At the plate, Beltre can take himself out of counts by being too aggressive and rushed; he loves to swing. Despite having good pitch recognition skills, Beltre will guess too often, resulting in unbalanced swing mechanics and underwhelming contact. When he is unbalanced at the plate, his back foot doesn’t pivot or stay planted, his front foot will drift towards the 1B side causing his hips to open up too much, his left shoulder will dip causing a flat bat-plane, and he will lung at balls. Power is slowly showing signs of life, but often adopts more of a slasher swing, resulting in contact, but preventing him from driving balls and using the torque in his swing to create power.

On defense, Beltre has tremendous natural ability, but is still raw with his reads and routes, often relying on his closing speed to recover from a poor first-step. His arm is also very strong, but his accuracy is still a work in progress, although the lapses in accuracy have more to do with rushing the process than with poor throwing mechanics; playing within the speed of the game will come with maturity. His speed is plus, but his first-step quickness isn’t elite level, which prevents even faster times to 1B and base running effectiveness. While I don’t think his make-up is an issue, he has been benched in the past for ignoring instruction and his role in a bench-clearing brawl calls his overall sportsmanship into question. Honestly, I don’t take issue with it. Needs overall game refinement and to find the balance between natural aggressiveness and a smart on-the-field approach.

Conclusion: Didn’t change OFP grade. Beltre is a rare prospect that features average-to-plus projections across the board; legit five-tool talent. At the plate, Beltre uses his plus-plus coordination and athleticism to make regular contact; that, along with his speed, should allow him to hit for average at higher levels. He has above-average power potential, but the development will depend on the maturity of his overall approach at the plate and his ability to utilize his natural swing/strength. On defense, his tools give him the potential to be an above-average defender in CF, with plus arm strength, a solid-average glove, and excellent recovery speed.

His overall game needs refinement, but his raw tools are showing signs of maturity and have begun the process of actualizing into on-the-field baseball skills. With the ability to hit for average, flash plus power potential, steal bases, and play above-average defense at a premium defensive position, Beltre has the tools to become a very, very good major league player. Tool-based grade: 58; first-division starter at the major league level.

[Check out the entire collection of scouting reports here. Special thanks to Deric McKamey, Josh Garoon, and Joey Matschulat. Follow me on Twitter @ProfessorParks.]

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Thursday

Jul082010

The Cliff Lee Trade Rumor Saga

Joey Matschulat |

Thursday, July 8, 2010 at 5:30 AM |

Cliff Lee fires a sixth-inning pitch against the Cubs on Wednesday, June 23rd.I suppose the timing of this latest spate of rumors/speculation/hearsay strikes a slightly discordant note, particularly since it's hitting us mere hours after six fairly strong innings from 105-strikeout man Colby Lewis and three virtually perfect frames from the all-Dominican flamethrowing Ogando/Francisco/Feliz trifecta, but one home victory against an inferior ballclub doesn't really mitigate the shaky back half of the Rangers' rotation, nor the ominous second-half schedule, so ... well, here we are.

According to multiple local beats (including MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan), major league sources have confirmed that trade discussions between the Mariners and Rangers with regard to a Cliff Lee-to-Texas deal are "heating up," with Chris Davis, Justin Smoak, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Derek Holland and Blake Beavan all being mentioned as potential components of a prospect-loaded package coming back the Mariners' way. Of particular interest is that neither Martin Perez nor Tanner Scheppers are deemed as available at present, although given the degree to which Lee-involved teams are engaged in posturing right now, I hesitate to buy too much into any early proclamations of players being untouchable. This thing is still awfully damn fluid.

[Per ESPN.com's and ProspectInsider.com's Jason Churchill, one internet rumor of the Rangers offering Smoak for Lee has been debunked, but discussions stalled out to some extent when Seattle informed Texas that a match "isn't likely" without Smoak's inclusion. Incidentally, earlier reports that the Twins had offered two top-40 prospects -- catcher Wilson Ramos and outfielder Aaron Hicks -- also appear to have been misinformed, which effectively puts us back near (or at) step one.]

Here's the thing about Holland: yeah, he's had his major league struggles, hit his developmental speed bumps and so forth, but we're still taking about a high-pedigree 24-year-old southpaw with strong talent/upside who (a) still has five seasons remaining on his club-control clock after 2010 and (b) has already largely powered through the arduous process of acclimating to the majors, an attribute which certain teams value highly. Is it fair to state, then, that his trade value is still largely commensurate with that of, say, another top-50 pitching prospect (e.g. Tanner Scheppers)? Or has his rising star already lost that much luster? I fall into the former camp, but it's worth considering both angles.

The other aspect of this Lee-to-Texas thing that doesn't receive nearly enough attention -- and I may write up a separate post on this subject in the next week -- is the tangible value added by way of Lee upping your chances of reaching the post-season. Despite sitting atop the division by a cozy 5.5-game margin as of this writing (which is tied for the Rangers' largest in-season division lead since 1999), this division is clearly not won yet, and throwing Lee into the mix arguably improves your chances of reaching the post-season by another 5-10 percent (this is a total shot in the dark, mind you, but it sounds about right from an intuitive standpoint).

That ballpark figure speaks to the fact that adding Lee specifically is not required to win the division, but by amplifying your chances of reaching the post-season, you're doing some really good things for the franchise's revenue streams: each additional regular-season win added around $1 million to a team's bottom line as of 2005 (per Nate Silver in "Baseball Between the Numbers"), whereas one post-season appearance alone can add around $25-30 million in present-day value by means of greater future regular-season ticket sales/merchandise sales/concession sales, post-season gate receipts and the corresponding increase in the value of local broadcast rights.

Adding Cliff Lee would not assure the Rangers of winning a post-season series or, for that matter, reaching the post-season at all (although they would become very heavy favorites to win the division with Lee, notwithstanding any deleterious effects from losing Smoak and/or Holland), but in this game, it's all about rational, objective analysis, and the reality of the matter is that there's serious value to be derived from post-season baseball of any magnitude in Arlington this year -- value that I'm hoping would be enough to justify relinquishing at least one of Perez/Scheppers/Holland/Smoak, which is, to me at least, looking very likely if a deal is going to get done at all.

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