Wilmer Font - Photo courtesy of Scott LucasIn 2009, Max Ramirez, Engel Beltre, and Michael Main all grossly under-performed the expectations that many of us had for them. The year before, Kasey Kiker, Eric Hurley, and Taylor Teagarden had disappointing seasons after ranking among the Rangers' top 10 prospects prior to spring training.

In 2010, more highly regarded Rangers prospects will produce numbers that are inconsistent with what we (and they) expect. So, who are most likely to take a tumble in the coming season? My guesses are provided below.

No. 1: RHP Wilmer Font | DoB: 05/24/90 | 6' 4", 235 lb.
Acquired via: Undrafted international free agency (2006)

Stuff: Mid-90s fastball, developing curveball and change-up

● Font is the man-child with the fastball that some scouts grade as an 80-caliber pitch (on the 20-to-80 scouting scale) and a change-up that has apparently developed into an above-average pitch. He will likely be included in most, if not all, of the Rangers' top 10 prospect lists that will come out this off-season. Based on first-hand reports and the 4.9 BB/9 and 0.73 GB/FB rates that he posted in 2009, Font's command needs to improve significantly for him to take advantage of his raw stuff.

● Although Matt Forman of Baseball America suggested that Font would have likely ranked between No. 21-30 among players who played in the South Atlantic League (SAL) in 2009, he indicated that managers in the SAL were lukewarm: "Font certainly did get consideration for the top 20. Managers around the league weren't as high on him as I expected them to be, though."

● Michael Newman at Scouting the Sally was not impressed by Font: "Now healthy, the 19-year-old struggled mightily versus the Savannah Sand Gnats during my lone opportunity to watch him pitch. Font's performance was underwhelming, but how much of it was due to simply catching him on an off night? While I can not be certain, his performance threw up a few red flags which leaves me questioning his future ceiling."

● Font figures to begin 2010 at High-A Bakersfield, where hitters tend to be more selective and fly balls tend to land on the wrong side of the outfield fence. For a pitcher like Font, who has struggled with control and who gives up more than his fair share of fly balls, the California League could prove to be a nightmare.

● Below are a few of the most recent pitching prospects who pitched in Bakersfield after outstanding seasons in low A-ball. Given this precedent, I expect Font to post an ERA north of the 5.00 mark if he spends the year in the California League:

Kasey Kiker: 2.90 ERA in MWL vs 4.73 ERA in CAL
Michael Main: 2.58 ERA in MWL vs 6.83 ERA in CAL
Tim Murphy: 2.83 ERA in NWL/MWL vs 6.80 ERA in CAL
Omar Poveda: 2.79 ERA in MWL vs 4.47 ERA in CAL
Kennil Gomez: 2.97 ERA in MWL vs 5.27 ERA in CAL

No. 2: LHP Kasey Kiker | DoB: 11/19/87 | 5' 10", 170 lb.
Acquired via: 2006 MLB Draft, 1st Round (12th overall)

Stuff: 87-94 mph fastball, average curveball, above average change-up

● Ranked as the 11th-best prospect in the Texas League in 2009, Kiker showed moxie and a plus change-up in racking up 8.6 K/9 and a 3.86 ERA. But he struggled with his control (4.7 BB/9) and a fastball that sat in the upper-80s for much of the season -- and then the wheels came off down the stretch (9.47 ERA in August).

● Kiker figures to be among the youngest pitchers in AAA-ball in 2010. If the more mature hitters in the Pacific Coast League take advantage of Kiker's control problems and fly ball tendencies (0.77 GB/FB), then 2010 could be a long one for the Rangers' lefty. A mid-season switch to the Triple-A Oklahoma City bullpen would not be a surprise if the Rangers decide that they need to upgrade their major league bullpen for the stretch drive.

No. 3: RHP Wilfredo Boscan | DoB: 10/26/89 | 6' 2", 187 lb.
Acquired via: International free agency (2006)

Stuff: 88-92 mph fastball, above-average curveball and change-up

● In 2008, Boscan looked like the real deal as he combined high strikeout (9.1 K/9) and ground ball (1.50 GB/FB) rates with outstanding control (1.9 BB/9) as an 18-year-old in the Northwest League. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus gushed: "Boscan is the total package who shows a rare amount of refinement for such an inexperienced hurler. He sets up hitters with an 88-91 mph sinker that he can dial up to 93 [mph]when he needs a little extra. His slow curveball is a solid offering, and his change-up is quite advanced, while he has the ability, the feel, and the savvy to use all of his pitches effectively."

● Baseball America's Nathan Rode was also very enthusiastic about Boscan following his 2008 performance: "For an 18-year-old, he showed uncanny fastball command and mound presence. He was fearless, working the inside corner and throwing any pitch in any count. Boscan's fastball ranges from 88-92 mph and it tends to sink down and away from righ-handers. He changes speeds on his over-the-top curveball, and he gets good late movement on his plus changeup."

● Boscan's 2009 season was an up-and-down affair.  He started up (0.51 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, .100 BAA in 17.2 innings).  An injury caused him to miss approximately four weeks and his season was down from there (4.46 ERA, 4.8 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, .292 BAA in 83 innings).

● Like Font, Boscan's appearance on this list has more to do with where he will be pitching in 2010 than upon how I feel about him as a prospect. Boscan's sinker should help him survive his time in the California League, but Bakersfield has not been kind to recent Rangers prospects who feature curveballs (see Kiker, Michael Main, Zach Phillips and Tim Murphy). Even if Boscan had maintained a 7.6 K/9 strikeout rate for the entire 2009 season, I would be concerned about his 2010 season based on his pitching repertoire. The fact that he was a very hittable pitcher for most of 2009, I think it likely that he will have a disappointing season pitching out of the Bakersfield rotation.

No. 4: RHP Pedro Strop | DoB: 06/13/85 | 6' 0", 160 lb.
Acquired via: Minor league free agency (September 2008)

Stuff: Low-to-mid-90s fastball, average slider and change-up

● According to Dan Szymborski, the biggest jump in baseball is from AAA-ball to the major leagues. If you need proof, just check out Warner Madrigal's AAA and MLB stats from 2009. 

● Pedro Strop has the stuff of a dominant major league reliever. Unfortunately, he lacks the game-to-game consistency that defines the upper echelon of major league relievers. During 2009, Strop gave up multiple runs in 10 of his 47 minor league appearances, accounting for 32 of the 36 earned runs that scored against him. He was unscored upon in 33 of his other 37 appearances. His major league effort was more of the same, with four of his seven appearances being of the three-up/three-down variety while one of his outings resulted in for earned runs on his ledger.

● Given his track record, it seems likely that Strop will have stunningly good games interlaced with stunningly bad ones. If he has enough of the latter in his first few weeks in the big leagues, it is likely that Strop will get the 2009 Madrigal treatment and that he will spend a significant portion of 2010 in AAA working on his consistency.

No. 5: RHP Guillermo Moscoso | DoB: 11/14/83 | 6' 1", 165 lb.
Acquired via: Trade with Detroit for Gerald Laird (2006)

Stuff: Deceptive 90-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

● In 2009, Moscoso was very effective in AAA-ball (2.31 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 in 70 IP) and fairly average in AA-ball (4.46 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 in 42.1 IP). The difference between the two? He had a .324 BABIP and a strand rate of just 60 percent in AA-ball vs a .282 BABIP and a strand rate of 76 percent in AAA-ball. Moscoso is better than he showed in AA-ball, but not as good as his AAA-ball ERA would suggest.

● Moscoso was solid in 14 innings as a major league pitcher, with a 3.21 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, and .275 BAA, but his fastball velocity was slightly below average (90.7 mph). Using very limited pitch data, Moscoso's curveball was surprisingly good (1.35 wins per 100 pitches) and his change-up was disappointingly bad (minus-4.78 wins per 100 pitches). Moscoso's stuff is not overpowering, which means that he will have to rely on outstanding command and an ability to keep hitters off balance.

● According to most studies (including this one), Rangers Ballpark in Arlington is among the most homer-prone parks in baseball. In 2009, Moscoso was among the most fly ball-prone pitchers in the Rangers' system. That is not a good combination. If he spends significant time in the majors in 2010, he will undoubtedly sport a home run rate that is much higher than the 0.2 HR/9 that he enjoyed in 2009.  Assuming Moscoso's major league peripherals are on the order of 7.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, and 1.0 HR/9, then he will likely produce an ERA in the 4.50-5.50 range. That wouldn't be bad for a rookie, but it will hopefully rank Moscoso among the least effective (and least used) of the Rangers' relievers. 

Richard Alvarez - Photo courtesy of Scott LucasIt happens every summer. Sometimes in May, though more often in June or July, one or more players in the Texas Rangers' farm system emerge as legitimate prospects. 2004 was the summer of Kinsler. Edinson Volquez was the man in 2005. Eric Hurley emerged as a top 100 prospect in 2006. Chris Davis, Taylor Teagarden, and German Duran shot up the charts in 2007. Derek Holland blindsided us all in 2008, joining Neftali Feliz and Martin Perez in an upward climb to elite prospect status. Robbie Ross, Tomas Telis, Miguel Velazquez and Michael Kirkman all took turns in the spotlight in 2009. 

So who will be "the guy" in 2010? Part of the fun is that it is almost impossible to tell who will emerge from the pool of talented, but not yet proven players in the Rangers' system to stamp themselves as legitimate prospects.  Six players worth watching in 2010 are presented below.  

No. 1: RHP Richard Alvarez | DoB: 08/14/92 | 6' 2", 180 lb.
Acquired via: Undrafted international free agency (2008)

Stuff: Mid-80s fastball, above-average curveball with plus potential and potentially plus change-up

● His stats don't jump out at you, but he held his own as a professional in the United States as a 16-year-old. He will likely pitch at short-season Spokane in 2010 as a 17-year-old and it is entirely possible that he will match what Martin Perez did at that age in the Northwest League (1.52 WHIIP, 7.7 K/9, 4.1 BB/9).

● If he can push his fastball velocity into the low-90s, Alvarez has a chance to be special with the outstanding command and promising secondary pitches that he already possesses.

● Ranked as the 12th-best prospect in the Arizona Rookie League by Baseball America: "Alvarez's 80 mph curveball is his best pitch and should add bite when he gets more arm strength. His change-up is also a potential plus pitch, and he throws it with good arm speed and deception. His fastball only sits at 86-87 mph, but he's able to retire batters by locating it effectively. As he grows and fills out, he could add another five miles per hour on his heater." (Connor Glassey, Baseball America)

No. 2: Robbie Erlin | DoB: 10/08/90 | 5' 11", 175 lb.
Acquired via: 2009 MLB Draft, 3rd Round

Stuff: 87-90 MPH fastball, 12-to-6 curveball, and developing change-up

● The Rangers appear set on cornering the market in diminutive left-handed pitching prospects. The only reports from Erlin's professional career were generated from a game in which he pitched in a wind/rain storm in Arizona.

● MLB's pre-draft scouting report suggests that Erlin has the delivery and make-up required to develop into a solid pitcher: "Erlin was getting more and more buzz in Northern California as the spring wore on. He's not the biggest guy in the world, but with an outstanding delivery, good makeup and above-average command to go along with a fastball that touches 90 and a curve that can be a plus pitch, he's an intriguing high school lefty."

● Erlin seems more likely to begin 2010 in Spokane, but the Rangers might challenge him with a May assignment to the full-season South Atlantic League as they did with Blake Beavan in 2008 and Joe Wieland in 2009.

No. 3: Jose Monegro | DoB: 09/19/89 | 6' 3", 200 lb.
Acquired via: Undrafted international free agency (2007)

Stuff: Good command of a low-90s fastball with movement, developing curveball and change-up

● A 13.1 K/9 and a batting average against (BAA) of .242 tell you that Monegro has quality stuff. His 1.9 BB/9 suggests that he can control it. He produced those numbers as a 19-year-old in his stateside debut in 2009. He was almost as good as an 18-year-old in the Dominican Summer League in 2008 (2.59 ERA, 10 K/9, 2,4 BB/9, .167 BAA).

● Jason Parks' brief scouting report: "Monegro makes his living with a big heavy fastball that usually sits in the low 90s with above-average movement. His secondary pitches improved throughout the '09 season, especially his big 12-to-6 slow curveball that has become a second strikeout pitch. He has flashed a decent change-up with good shape and tumble."

● Given how he dominated out of the bullpen in the rookie league, Monegro will likely either pitch out of the Low-A Hickory bullpen or the Spokane starting rotation in 2010. The decision to start or relieve will likely be based upon how Monegro's secondary pitches look in spring training.

No. 4: Leury Garcia | DoB: 03/18/91 | 5' 7", 153 lb.
Acquired via: Undrafted international free agency (2007)

Stuff: Switch-hitting shortstop with excellent athleticism and arm

● Committed 42 errors while playing primarily shortstop in Hickory. His defense did show improvement, however, as his fielding percentage (88.4 percent) and plays per game (4.01) were better than they were in the Arizona Rookie League in 2008 (87.4 percent fielding percentage and 3.74 plays per game). 

● With the errors and a .573 OPS, it is easy to look at Garcia's second season in the Rangers system and assume that he is unlikely to develop into a compelling prospect. But it is worth noting that he spent the entire 2009 season as an 18-year-old competing in a full-season league with players who were mostly 2-4 years older. In addition, those who have seen him play rave about his physical ability (see below).

● "But scouts were laughing after a play that shortstop Leury Garcia made in the fourth. A Mariners hitter shot a ground ball toward the hole that Garcia backhanded on the dead run and, without planting and without jumping and without really even turning, he fired a sidearm laser across his body that the Royals first baseman snared on one hop, getting the out.  The laughter from the scouts on Garcia's play seemed to say, "That's a top 10 prospect in a lot of systems. Sick depth." (Jamey Newberg at the 2009 Fall Instructional League)

● "[Garcia has] a plus-plus arm and plus-plus speed that translates into excellent range. He has earned the nickname "Furcalito", which gives you some idea of his tools. He's also a switch-hitter with some strength in his swing. Very interesting tool set." (Aaron Fitt, Baseball America)

● Guys with tools rarely live up to the hype, but when they do, the results can be spectacular. Fewer strikeouts, more walks, a bit more power, and more consistent defense will indicate that Garcia is converting tools to skills and potential to performance.

No. 5: Vin DiFazio | DoB: 05/15/86 | 6' 1", 215 lb.
Acquired via: 2009 MLB Draft, 12th Round

Stuff: Right-handed hitting catcher combines patience with power at the plate; scouting reports suggest that he is solid defensively with a strong, though he threw out just 28 percent of would-be base stealers in 2009 

● Travis Hafner. Ian Kinsler. Mitch Moreland. Every so often, a college hitter drafted in the later rounds proves to be much more than expected. Based on their debut performances, it appears that Vin Difazio is the most likely late-round draft pick from the Class of '09 to develop into a legitimate prospect. In addition to showing exceptional power in his debut season (12 doubles, one triple triple, 12 home runs in 230 at-bats), Difazio displayed an advanced approach at the plate by working 41 walks against 49 strikeouts.

● In 2005, Difazio followed a stellar freshman year at UConn where he hit .306/.421/.395 (including 16 walks against 21 strikeouts) by being named the top prospect in the Atlantic Collegiate League by Baseball America. Will Kimmey's thumbnail on Difazio included: "DiFazio paced the ACBL with 42 RBIs and ranked second in hits, runs, doubles and triples while batting .331/.407/.570. His defense behind the plate impressed just as much, especially his arm strength and sturdy frame (6-foot, 200 pounds)."

● Difazio was sidelined for much of the 2006-2008 seasons dealing with the effects of a viral nerve infection, but he returned to the college scene in 2009 with a .290/.423/.645 line in 140 at-bats for the University of Alabama before being drafted by the Rangers.

● Given his age and advanced bat, it appears likely that DiFazio will begin 2010 in Bakersfield where he will have the opportunity to put up another impressive hitting line.  A .400-plus OBP, .500-plus slugging percentage and reports of solid defense would be sufficient to get the catcher moving north on lists of Rangers prospects.

No. 6: Tommy Mendonca | DoB: 04/12/88 | 6' 1", 200 lb.
Acquired via: 2009 MLB Draft, 2nd Round

Stuff: Solid defense at third base.  Excellent power but contact issues

● Despite striking out in 32 percent of his plate appearances, Mendonca had a very productive debut season.  He hit for average and power in Spokane (.309/.361/.537 in 205 plate appearances) and then struggled in 11 games following a promotion to the California League (.209/.261/.270).  Mendonca's numbers in Spokane benefited from a .434 batting average on ball in play (BABIP) that was far higher than his 17.1 percent line drive rate would have predicted.

● Baseball America rated Mendonca the 11th-best prospect in the Northwest League in 2009 and had the following to say: "While the ball jumps off Mendonca's bat, he does have issues making contact (66 strikeouts in 188 at-bats) and more experienced pitchers could exploit his overly aggressive approach (he drew just nine walks). His bat path is a little too deep and he drops his hands during his swing, causing him to get underneath a lot of fastballs. (On defense, Mendonca) has good instincts, a quick transfer and short throwing motion. His throws can get sloppy, as he sometimes drops down and flips the ball across the diamond."

● There are those who invoke the name of Chris Davis when discussing Mendonca. The stats from their times in Spokane don't exactly support that comparison as Davis struck out in only 23 percent of his at-bats to go along with an almost 10 percent walk rate (23 walks in 253 at-bats).

● Mendonca seems likely to begin 2010 as the starting third baseman at High-A Bakersfield. Reducing his strikeout rate to below 25 percent and increasing his walk rate to 8-10 percent while maintaining his power will indicate that Mendonca is making progress. The California League has a way of making power hitters look like stars, so it would not be surprising to see Mendonca get off to a hot start.