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Baseball Time in Arlington ranks the Texas Rangers' top 25 prospects

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Saturday
26Dec2009

Considering The 2010 Mariners Pitching

The Mariners have made a lot of noise this offseason with the additions of Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, and Brandon League.  Coming off an 85-77 season, there are reasons to be concerned about the team from Seattle entering the 2010 season (though it is worth noting that the M's scored 52 fewer runs than they gave up in 2009, suggesting that their record should have been 75-87).

Blogger Derek Zumsteg at USS Mariner presented his thoughts on the Mariners' 2010 roster here.  As I did with the Rangers' pitching for the coming season, I used the 2010 player projections from CHONE and Bill James to estimate the ERA for the Mariners pitching staff next season.  Listed below are the average projected 2010 ERAs for each of the Mariners' pitchers from Derek's list:

Starting Rotation
Felix Hernandez - 3.35
Cliff Lee - 3.64
Ryan Rowland-Smith - 4.05
Ian Snell - 4.44
Doug Fister - 4.87

Bullpen
David Aardsma - 3.73
Brandon League - 3.93
Mark Lowe - 3.96
Luke French - 4.86
Jason Vargas - 4.73
Garrett Olson - 4.83
Shawn Kelley - 3.73

If Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee both pitch 225 innings; the other three starters average 160 innings; Aardsma, League, and Lowe each average 80 innings; and the remaining relievers all average 60 innings, then the projected ERA for the Mariners' predicted pitching staff is 4.08.  Unlike the Rangers (whose projected staff ERA for 2010 is 4.18), the Mariners do not have much pitching to fall back on if injuries strike.  Derek suggests that Yusmiero Petit, Sean White, and Rule 5 draftee Kanekoa Texeira are most likely next in line should the Mariners staff have problems.  

In addition, the Mariners' offense has not been particularly potent the past five years, averaging 712 runs scored per season, including 671 and 640 in 2008 and 2009, respectively.  While it is possible, perhaps even likely, that Figgins and Bradley will improve the M's offense, it does not appear particularly likely that the team will score more than 750 runs in 2010.  Assuming the pitching staff does put up a 4.08 ERA and their defense gives up 60 unearned runs, then the Mariners are projected to give up 721 runs.  The team's projected win-loss record with 750 runs for and 721 runs against would be 84-78.    

Friday
25Dec2009

Christmas Time In Texas: Act III

Well, it wasn't a White Christmas ... but a White Christmas Eve is pretty close, right?I find it refreshing -- and a little bit amusing -- that this is the first Christmas of the three that have elapsed since I began writing for Baseball Time in Arlington some 34 months ago where I haven't felt compelled to lavish over-the-top praise upon the Texas Rangers and/or make repeated references to the "bright future" lying ahead of them. This is one year where it's just not necessary, because I don't like writing redundant things any more than you like reading them.

There is one redundant thing that I would like to write, however, and it's a simple word of unwavering gratitude: Thanks. I'm heartened by the enormous response that the high-quality work of David Brown, Jason Parks, Trip Somers and myself has received throughout this tumultuous calendar year. I'm pumped by the fact that the website has been smashing daily and weekly traffic records left and right during this month of December. Most of all, I'm touched that you're interested enough in what we have to say that you keep coming back. It's clichéd, but unequivocally true at the same time: without you, this place doesn't exist. I mean that.

I'm not certain what these next few months and years hold in store for my three cohorts, and I'm especially uncertain about what they hold in store for me -- truth be told, there have been times during this past year when I've been very tempted to hang up the cleats (almost entirely due to the enormous time investment), and perhaps that's the path that makes the most sense for me from a career-furthering standpoint. I sincerely hope things never deteriorate to the point where I do have to go down that path, however, because part of my identity is locked into this website and the effort I put into it, and I don't have any intention of losing that part of my identity -- or, for that matter, going out before I'm at the top. And so endeth my moment of holiday catharsis.

A very blessed Merry Christmas and happy holidays to each and every one of you out there, and above all else, take the words of the late, great Fred G. Sanford to heart ... love somebody.

Thursday
24Dec2009

Breaking Down The Texas Rangers' Projected 2010 Pitching Staff

Derek Holland delivers a first-inning pitch against the Giants on Saturday, June 20th.The addition of Darren Oliver pushes the Texas Rangers' major league roster to 39 players, 23 of whom are pitchers. The club also has Geoff Geary, Clay Rapada, Willie Eyre, and an interesting group of pitching prospects who are not currently on the team's 40-man roster but who could contribute to the Rangers' 2010 season.

If everyone is healthy, then it is probable that the Rangers will have more quality pitching depth than at any time in the past 20 years. Provided in the tables below are the pitchers who figure to begin 2010 at Triple-A Oklahoma City or on the major league team.

The columns include each player's 2009 FIP (fielding-independent ERA); 2010 ERA projections from CHONE, Bill James, and an average of the two; player ages; minor league option status; and my prediction for how many major league innings each player will pitch in 2010.

PROJECTED MAJOR LEAGUE PITCHING STAFF

PROJECTED TRIPLE-A PITCHING STAFF

A FEW NOTES

● Asterisks in the FIP column indicate that the numbers derive from minor league performances. Eric Hurley's FIP is from his 2008 minor league season.

● The CHONE and Bill James ERA projections are for the major leagues. 

● C.J. Wilson's ERA projections assume that he is a reliever. Neftali Feliz's ERA projections assume that he is a starter.

● Although he has three minor league options remaining, Benjamin Snyder cannot be optioned in 2010 without being offered back to the Giants since he was selected in the Rule 5 draft. It wouldn't surprise me if the Rangers chose Snyder over Rapada coming out of spring training so that they could determine Snyder's effectiveness against major league lefties before offering him back to San Francisco.

● Assistant general manager Thad Levine recently suggested that in order to limit Feliz's innings pitched in 2010, the right-hander will likely begin his season in the Rangers' bullpen before being transferred to the starting rotation in mid-season.

AND NOW FOR THE FUN STUFF ...

Replace Kasey Kiker with Kevin Millwood and Eric Hurley with Francisco Cordero and the Triple-A pitching staff looks remarkably similar to what recent Rangers' teams have introduced in Arlington on Opening Day. Actually, the 2010 RedHawks pitching staff might have more talent than the pitching staffs that the Rangers' major league team fielded in 2005 and 2008.

The average age of the projected 12-man pitching staff is 27.4 years. Take out Darren Oliver and it becomes 26.4 years. The Rangers will likely compete with the Athletics and Marlins for the title of "Youngest Pitching Staff" in 2010.

The combined 2010 salaries for the Rangers' pitchers will likely be less than $21 million. That's less than what C.C. Sabathia and Johan Santana are slated to make in 2010 and only slightly more than what Carlos Zambrano, Barry Zito, Jake Peavy, A.J. Burnett, and John Lackey will each be paid for the coming season. $21 million is also less than what the Rangers paid Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla for 316 innings in 2009.

Brandon McCarthy has just over four years of major league service time and is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2012 season. If he spends half of the 2010 season in the minor leagues, then his first year of free agency would likely be postponed to 2013.

In years past, Geoff Geary and Warner Madrigal would have likely been shoe-ins to make the major league team out of spring training. This year, they are likely behind at least five other pitchers. In addition, prospects like Kasey Kiker, Omar Poveda, Danny Gutierrez, and Eric Hurley appear unlikely to receive even major league auditions unless the Rangers' staff gets hit hard by injuries or ineffectiveness.

Both the CHONE and Bill James algorithms are projecting a solid season from Willie Eyre. Don't be surprised to see the right-hander pitching well out of the Rangers' bullpen at some point in 2010.

Assuming the CHONE/Bill James predictions and my estimates for innings pitched are reasonably close, the Rangers' pitching staff should post an ERA of approximately 4.18 in 2010. That will better the staff's 2009 performance (4.38 ERA) and provide a substantial improvement over the team's average performance from the past five years (4.93 ERA).

The benefit of having a bunch of talented, pre-free agent pitchers in the organization can be illustrated by considering how the team might deal with injuries and ineffectiveness. Assume for a moment that Rich Harden, C.J. Wilson, Derek Holland, Frankie Francisco, Chris Ray, and Dustin Nippert all miss the 2010 season. If they were replaced by Brandon McCarthy, Guillermo Moscoso, Matt Harrison, Pedro Strop, Willie Eyre, and Doug Mathis, the team's projected ERA would jump from 4.18 to 4.39. That would be an increase of roughly 34 runs over the course of the season, which would likely result in only 3-4 fewer wins. How many other teams in the league could lose half of their top 12 pitchers for the season (including three starters and their closer) and be projected to give up fewer than 35 extra runs?

A 4.18 ERA plus 60 unearned runs (the league average was 55 unearned runs per team in 2009) would result in 771 runs against for the Rangers in 2010. Take away the team's 901-run outburst in 2008, and the Rangers have scored an average of 825 runs per year over the last five seasons. If the team scores 825 runs and gives up 771 runs in 2010, then they would be expected to have a win-loss record of 90-72.  

Wednesday
23Dec2009

The Ian Kinsler Question

Let's shove all of the equivocations aside for a moment and cut right to the chase: as the active roster currently stands, Ian Kinsler is the Texas Rangers' best player. He's a sensational talent, a success story of the highest magnitude for the amateur scouting department -- and, even more specifically, for Rangers crosschecker Mike Grouse -- and one of the single biggest reasons why Texas has clearly transitioned from "rebuilding" to "win-now" mode.

And yet, if you take a moment to reflect back upon the summarized basics of what Grouse once wrote about Kinsler (via Mike Hindman), you'll find something that just might resonate a little bit: "Great feel for the game, athleticism, solid defensive actions, intensity. [Kinsler] had leadership qualities. It was mostly just a matter of waiting for the physical part of his game to catch up to the mental part of the game."

Six years after the fact, might the case be that the tables have completely turned and the mental aspect of his game is now lagging behind the physical aspect? Forget his controversial mid-September remarks about attendance and fan support; those aren't relevant to his on-field production. What is relevant is, of course, the widely held belief that Kinsler's adoption of a more pronounced uppercut swinging motion was a prime contributer to his offensive downfall in 2009, as well as Kinsler's insistence that no facet of his hitting mechanics had materially changed.

The reason I mention all of this is because there appears to be an existing school of thought positing that Kinsler's abysmal batted-ball statistics -- including line drive/fly ball/ground ball rate and BABIP -- will naturally regress back towards the mean, and that with that regression will come a pronounced offensive rebound. Perhaps that is exactly what will end up coming to pass, but here's the million-dollar question: if that perceived, albeit subtle change in his swing plane isn't corrected, is he going to remain exactly where he is right now production-wise, or (even worse) begin to emulate Hank Blalock's career path?

Once upon a time, Blalock was a fantastic pure hitter capable of lacing the ball to all fields and posting sky-high line drive rates ... but something happened. Something that the Rangers evidently never foresaw. Something that probably, but not certainly, could have been prevented.

Opinions vary on exactly when Blalock began to lose "it," and frankly, I'm not sure he ever did lose "it," because there were those oh-so-tantalizing moments when he made you forget about his teeth-grinding hacks at pitches in the dirt and would lock in, shorten up and drive the ball with authority the other way. It's just that "it" was no longer happening enough, and there were times in 2009 when Kinsler resembled present-day Blalock in much that same way. It was unnerving, to say the least.

The Hardball Times' Mitchel Lichtman recently published an in-depth study indicating that the year-to-year offensive performance of the modern-day baseball player typically crests around age 27-28, followed by gradual decline until around age 33 and then a slowly steepening decline in the seasons thereafter. Kinsler is entering an extremely pivotal year -- that is, his age-28 season -- in which we should logically be expecting some of his best work to date, but I'm not sure that anybody can state with utter conviction that it's actually going to happen.

If anybody was looking for an important early-tenure litmus test for new hitting coach Clint Hurdle, his forthcoming one-on-one work with Kinsler and his ability to modify his swing for the better -- to the extent that it can actually be improved, or that Kinsler will accept and incorporate his teachings -- stands out in my mind as an potential leading indicator of how he's going to be perceived by the fan base. And, hey, if Kinsler ends up remaining what he is right now (a 30-homer, 30-steal, .350-.355 wOBA second baseman with above-average defense), that's still very, very good, because 4½-win players are extremely valuable properties.

And yet in spite of that bright side, I simply cannot shake the feeling that Kinsler could be something even bigger and better than what he is right now. It seems like it's right there within his grasp, and yet he hasn't managed to reach out and grab it. Being right on the cusp of superstardom is great and wonderful, but to be so close and yet so far away ... well, I can't fathom too many things more maddening than that.

Tuesday
22Dec2009

Rangers Prospect Prognostications: Most Likely To Disappoint In 2010

Wilmer Font - Photo courtesy of Scott LucasIn 2009, Max Ramirez, Engel Beltre, and Michael Main all grossly under-performed the expectations that many of us had for them. The year before, Kasey Kiker, Eric Hurley, and Taylor Teagarden had disappointing seasons after ranking among the Rangers' top 10 prospects prior to spring training.

In 2010, more highly regarded Rangers prospects will produce numbers that are inconsistent with what we (and they) expect. So, who are most likely to take a tumble in the coming season? My guesses are provided below.

No. 1: RHP Wilmer Font | DoB: 05/24/90 | 6' 4", 235 lb.
Acquired via: Undrafted international free agency (2006)

Stuff: Mid-90s fastball, developing curveball and change-up

● Font is the man-child with the fastball that some scouts grade as an 80-caliber pitch (on the 20-to-80 scouting scale) and a change-up that has apparently developed into an above-average pitch. He will likely be included in most, if not all, of the Rangers' top 10 prospect lists that will come out this off-season. Based on first-hand reports and the 4.9 BB/9 and 0.73 GB/FB rates that he posted in 2009, Font's command needs to improve significantly for him to take advantage of his raw stuff.

● Although Matt Forman of Baseball America suggested that Font would have likely ranked between No. 21-30 among players who played in the South Atlantic League (SAL) in 2009, he indicated that managers in the SAL were lukewarm: "Font certainly did get consideration for the top 20. Managers around the league weren't as high on him as I expected them to be, though."

● Michael Newman at Scouting the Sally was not impressed by Font: "Now healthy, the 19-year-old struggled mightily versus the Savannah Sand Gnats during my lone opportunity to watch him pitch. Font's performance was underwhelming, but how much of it was due to simply catching him on an off night? While I can not be certain, his performance threw up a few red flags which leaves me questioning his future ceiling."

● Font figures to begin 2010 at High-A Bakersfield, where hitters tend to be more selective and fly balls tend to land on the wrong side of the outfield fence. For a pitcher like Font, who has struggled with control and who gives up more than his fair share of fly balls, the California League could prove to be a nightmare.

● Below are a few of the most recent pitching prospects who pitched in Bakersfield after outstanding seasons in low A-ball. Given this precedent, I expect Font to post an ERA north of the 5.00 mark if he spends the year in the California League:

Kasey Kiker: 2.90 ERA in MWL vs 4.73 ERA in CAL
Michael Main: 2.58 ERA in MWL vs 6.83 ERA in CAL
Tim Murphy: 2.83 ERA in NWL/MWL vs 6.80 ERA in CAL
Omar Poveda: 2.79 ERA in MWL vs 4.47 ERA in CAL
Kennil Gomez: 2.97 ERA in MWL vs 5.27 ERA in CAL

No. 2: LHP Kasey Kiker | DoB: 11/19/87 | 5' 10", 170 lb.
Acquired via: 2006 MLB Draft, 1st Round (12th overall)

Stuff: 87-94 mph fastball, average curveball, above average change-up

● Ranked as the 11th-best prospect in the Texas League in 2009, Kiker showed moxie and a plus change-up in racking up 8.6 K/9 and a 3.86 ERA. But he struggled with his control (4.7 BB/9) and a fastball that sat in the upper-80s for much of the season -- and then the wheels came off down the stretch (9.47 ERA in August).

● Kiker figures to be among the youngest pitchers in AAA-ball in 2010. If the more mature hitters in the Pacific Coast League take advantage of Kiker's control problems and fly ball tendencies (0.77 GB/FB), then 2010 could be a long one for the Rangers' lefty. A mid-season switch to the Triple-A Oklahoma City bullpen would not be a surprise if the Rangers decide that they need to upgrade their major league bullpen for the stretch drive.

No. 3: RHP Wilfredo Boscan | DoB: 10/26/89 | 6' 2", 187 lb.
Acquired via: International free agency (2006)

Stuff: 88-92 mph fastball, above-average curveball and change-up

● In 2008, Boscan looked like the real deal as he combined high strikeout (9.1 K/9) and ground ball (1.50 GB/FB) rates with outstanding control (1.9 BB/9) as an 18-year-old in the Northwest League. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus gushed: "Boscan is the total package who shows a rare amount of refinement for such an inexperienced hurler. He sets up hitters with an 88-91 mph sinker that he can dial up to 93 [mph]when he needs a little extra. His slow curveball is a solid offering, and his change-up is quite advanced, while he has the ability, the feel, and the savvy to use all of his pitches effectively."

● Baseball America's Nathan Rode was also very enthusiastic about Boscan following his 2008 performance: "For an 18-year-old, he showed uncanny fastball command and mound presence. He was fearless, working the inside corner and throwing any pitch in any count. Boscan's fastball ranges from 88-92 mph and it tends to sink down and away from righ-handers. He changes speeds on his over-the-top curveball, and he gets good late movement on his plus changeup."

● Boscan's 2009 season was an up-and-down affair.  He started up (0.51 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, .100 BAA in 17.2 innings).  An injury caused him to miss approximately four weeks and his season was down from there (4.46 ERA, 4.8 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, .292 BAA in 83 innings).

● Like Font, Boscan's appearance on this list has more to do with where he will be pitching in 2010 than upon how I feel about him as a prospect. Boscan's sinker should help him survive his time in the California League, but Bakersfield has not been kind to recent Rangers prospects who feature curveballs (see Kiker, Michael Main, Zach Phillips and Tim Murphy). Even if Boscan had maintained a 7.6 K/9 strikeout rate for the entire 2009 season, I would be concerned about his 2010 season based on his pitching repertoire. The fact that he was a very hittable pitcher for most of 2009, I think it likely that he will have a disappointing season pitching out of the Bakersfield rotation.

No. 4: RHP Pedro Strop | DoB: 06/13/85 | 6' 0", 160 lb.
Acquired via: Minor league free agency (September 2008)

Stuff: Low-to-mid-90s fastball, average slider and change-up

● According to Dan Szymborski, the biggest jump in baseball is from AAA-ball to the major leagues. If you need proof, just check out Warner Madrigal's AAA and MLB stats from 2009. 

● Pedro Strop has the stuff of a dominant major league reliever. Unfortunately, he lacks the game-to-game consistency that defines the upper echelon of major league relievers. During 2009, Strop gave up multiple runs in 10 of his 47 minor league appearances, accounting for 32 of the 36 earned runs that scored against him. He was unscored upon in 33 of his other 37 appearances. His major league effort was more of the same, with four of his seven appearances being of the three-up/three-down variety while one of his outings resulted in for earned runs on his ledger.

● Given his track record, it seems likely that Strop will have stunningly good games interlaced with stunningly bad ones. If he has enough of the latter in his first few weeks in the big leagues, it is likely that Strop will get the 2009 Madrigal treatment and that he will spend a significant portion of 2010 in AAA working on his consistency.

No. 5: RHP Guillermo Moscoso | DoB: 11/14/83 | 6' 1", 165 lb.
Acquired via: Trade with Detroit for Gerald Laird (2006)

Stuff: Deceptive 90-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

● In 2009, Moscoso was very effective in AAA-ball (2.31 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 in 70 IP) and fairly average in AA-ball (4.46 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 in 42.1 IP). The difference between the two? He had a .324 BABIP and a strand rate of just 60 percent in AA-ball vs a .282 BABIP and a strand rate of 76 percent in AAA-ball. Moscoso is better than he showed in AA-ball, but not as good as his AAA-ball ERA would suggest.

● Moscoso was solid in 14 innings as a major league pitcher, with a 3.21 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, and .275 BAA, but his fastball velocity was slightly below average (90.7 mph). Using very limited pitch data, Moscoso's curveball was surprisingly good (1.35 wins per 100 pitches) and his change-up was disappointingly bad (minus-4.78 wins per 100 pitches). Moscoso's stuff is not overpowering, which means that he will have to rely on outstanding command and an ability to keep hitters off balance.

● According to most studies (including this one), Rangers Ballpark in Arlington is among the most homer-prone parks in baseball. In 2009, Moscoso was among the most fly ball-prone pitchers in the Rangers' system. That is not a good combination. If he spends significant time in the majors in 2010, he will undoubtedly sport a home run rate that is much higher than the 0.2 HR/9 that he enjoyed in 2009.  Assuming Moscoso's major league peripherals are on the order of 7.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, and 1.0 HR/9, then he will likely produce an ERA in the 4.50-5.50 range. That wouldn't be bad for a rookie, but it will hopefully rank Moscoso among the least effective (and least used) of the Rangers' relievers. 

Sunday
20Dec2009

Report: Rangers Close To Signing Darren Oliver ... Again

According to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick, the Texas Rangers are closing in on a [one-year] contract with free agent left-hander Darren Oliver that could be hammered out sometime early this week. Surprising? Kinda. Wholly unexpected? Not really.

Oliver had already captured the Rangers' interest to such a degree that they had been identified as one of his most aggressive suitors as early as December 8th, and yet it didn't really appear that there would be strong motivation on the organization's part to further drain its limited pool of resources by acquiring a "luxury piece" (that is to say, a player who doesn't really address an urgent need). That assumption obviously didn't hit the mark, and it now seems that Texas will be locking in Oliver with something north of $3 million, which is at least preferable to the $12 million that he netted from Texas in 2000-2001 in exchange for 260 innings of replacement-level pitching.

[Monday, 2:00 P.M. CST Update: Crasnick is now reporting that said one-year contract would guarantee Oliver $3.5 million in 2010 and include a vesting option for 2011 that could expand the deal into a two-year, $6.25 million commitment. Should that vesting option ultimately kick in, Oliver will be right around his 41st birthday by the end of the 2011 season.]

There are three possible ways in which this impending signing could affect his lefty-throwing counterparts in C.J. Wilson, Clay Rapada and Ben Snyder: (a) Oliver and Wilson could land in the Opening Day bullpen, with Rapada or Snyder possibly getting a shot but more likely being dismissed, (b) Oliver could supplant Wilson as the Rangers' premier left-handed reliever, with one of Rapada/Synder sticking and C.J. breaking into the starting rotation, or (c) Wilson being dangled as trade bait, which could conceivably be used to address that pressing need for another adequate bat. The safe money is probably on 'B' or 'C.'

With regard to the signing itself, it's reasonable enough in a vaccum, but the Rangers don't operate in a vaccum, and much of the apprehension arising from this signing seems to be a product of the money involved, paired with the reality that Texas probably didn't have all that much to spend before the signing and now has even less to spend afterwards. If it's not part of a master plan, it's going to look a bit more odd, but given Jon Daniels' recently demonstrated propensity for making creative, multi-step moves, perhaps it's premature to isolate this signing and slap a label on it without knowing whether there's another shoe that's about to drop.

And what of Oliver? Well, he pretty much is what he is at this point -- a veteran left-hander who has been pretty good (but not great) since being repositioned as a reliever in 2006, equipped with a high-80s fastball and a high-70s "slurve" which appears to give opposing batters some fair-sized problems. It's not likely that he's going to spontaneously fall apart in 2010, but at the same time, one would be prudent in tempering their Oliver-specific expectations a bit, for there are a few key statistical indicators (strikeout rate, home run-to-fly ball ratio, exceptional performance within the pitcher-friendly confines of Angel Stadium) that suggest he's not a great bet to replicate his superb 2009 relief campaign in Texas.

Sunday
20Dec2009

Sunday Morning Open Thread: Five Questions

1. Now that the Max Ramirez-for-Mike Lowell deal has officially collapsed, what should be 'Plan B' for Texas?

2. What is the single biggest aspect of Ron Washington's managerial skill set which must be improved upon in 2010?

3. With Seattle aggressively adding pieces left and right (e.g. Chone Figgins, Cliff Lee and now Milton Bradley), should the Rangers be feeling any sort of sense of urgency to "keep pace" in the race for divisional supremacy?

4. Open-ended question: Knowing what we currently know about the composition of the Rangers' 40-man roster, which player do you believe will end up having the most valuable campaign in 2010? Define "valuable" however you see fit.

5. Finish this sentence: "In order to be perceived as successful owners, Chuck Greenberg and Nolan Ryan must _______."

[If you've been wondering where I've been for the last four days or so (and why anybody would miss me with the website in the very capable hands of Jason, David and Trip is anybody's guess), let's just say that finals and graduation ended up receiving slightly higher priority than baseball. My undergraduate career is over, and candidly speaking, I'm not at all sure what's coming next, but I aspire to make whatever that something is special. Thanks for reading.]

Saturday
19Dec2009

NEWSFLASH: Mike Lowell Needs Surgery; Will Not Join Rangers

According to Evan Grant, the Rangers do not plan to move forward with the trade that would have netted the team Mike Lowell in exchange for Max Ramirez.  The team will return to the hunt for a right-handed, middle of the order hitter who can DH and occasionally play defense (preferably at the corner infield spots).

The prime candidates who are still available on the free-agent market include Vladimir Guerrero, Troy Glaus, Johnny Gomes, Fernando Tatis, and Ryan Garko.  As Joey noted here, CHONE projects that the latter three players will have similar levels of production in 2010.  Bill James is slightly more bullish on Guerrero than the other three, projecting that Vlad will bounce back to his 2008 levels of production (.305/.369/.508).  If you share Will Carroll's opinion that the Rangers' medical staff is among the best in the league and that there is still some life in Guerrero's knees, then he is probably your guy.  Given his age and health record, I think that I would prefer to see the team take a run at Garko.

Friday
18Dec2009

Rangers Prospect Prognostications: Most Likely To Surprise In 2010

Richard Alvarez - Photo courtesy of Scott LucasIt happens every summer. Sometimes in May, though more often in June or July, one or more players in the Texas Rangers' farm system emerge as legitimate prospects. 2004 was the summer of Kinsler. Edinson Volquez was the man in 2005. Eric Hurley emerged as a top 100 prospect in 2006. Chris Davis, Taylor Teagarden, and German Duran shot up the charts in 2007. Derek Holland blindsided us all in 2008, joining Neftali Feliz and Martin Perez in an upward climb to elite prospect status. Robbie Ross, Tomas Telis, Miguel Velazquez and Michael Kirkman all took turns in the spotlight in 2009. 

So who will be "the guy" in 2010? Part of the fun is that it is almost impossible to tell who will emerge from the pool of talented, but not yet proven players in the Rangers' system to stamp themselves as legitimate prospects.  Six players worth watching in 2010 are presented below.  

No. 1: RHP Richard Alvarez | DoB: 08/14/92 | 6' 2", 180 lb.
Acquired via: Undrafted international free agency (2008)

Stuff: Mid-80s fastball, above-average curveball with plus potential and potentially plus change-up

Year

Level

IP

ERA

WHIP

H/9

HR/9

BB/9

SO/9

GB/FB

2009

Rk

41

5.49

1.488

9.2

0.2

4.2

7.7

0.9

● His stats don't jump out at you, but he held his own as a professional in the United States as a 16-year-old. He will likely pitch at short-season Spokane in 2010 as a 17-year-old and it is entirely possible that he will match what Martin Perez did at that age in the Northwest League (1.52 WHIIP, 7.7 K/9, 4.1 BB/9).

● If he can push his fastball velocity into the low-90s, Alvarez has a chance to be special with the outstanding command and promising secondary pitches that he already possesses.

● Ranked as the 12th-best prospect in the Arizona Rookie League by Baseball America: "Alvarez's 80 mph curveball is his best pitch and should add bite when he gets more arm strength. His change-up is also a potential plus pitch, and he throws it with good arm speed and deception. His fastball only sits at 86-87 mph, but he's able to retire batters by locating it effectively. As he grows and fills out, he could add another five miles per hour on his heater." (Connor Glassey, Baseball America)

No. 2: Robbie Erlin | DoB: 10/08/90 | 5' 11", 175 lb.
Acquired via: 2009 MLB Draft, 3rd Round

Stuff: 87-90 MPH fastball, 12-to-6 curveball, and developing change-up

Year

Level

IP

ERA

WHIP

H/9

HR/9

BB/9

SO/9

GB/FB

2009

Rk

4

2.25

1.5

11.2

0

2.2

20.2

2.00 

● The Rangers appear set on cornering the market in diminutive left-handed pitching prospects. The only reports from Erlin's professional career were generated from a game in which he pitched in a wind/rain storm in Arizona.

● MLB's pre-draft scouting report suggests that Erlin has the delivery and make-up required to develop into a solid pitcher: "Erlin was getting more and more buzz in Northern California as the spring wore on. He's not the biggest guy in the world, but with an outstanding delivery, good makeup and above-average command to go along with a fastball that touches 90 and a curve that can be a plus pitch, he's an intriguing high school lefty."

● Erlin seems more likely to begin 2010 in Spokane, but the Rangers might challenge him with a May assignment to the full-season South Atlantic League as they did with Blake Beavan in 2008 and Joe Wieland in 2009.

No. 3: Jose Monegro | DoB: 09/19/89 | 6' 3", 200 lb.
Acquired via: Undrafted international free agency (2007)

Stuff: Good command of a low-90s fastball with movement, developing curveball and change-up

Year

Level

IP

ERA

WHIP

H/9

HR/9

BB/9

SO/9

GB/FB

2009

Rk

32.1

2.51

1.175

8.6

0.6

1.9

13.9

1.22 

● A 13.1 K/9 and a batting average against (BAA) of .242 tell you that Monegro has quality stuff. His 1.9 BB/9 suggests that he can control it. He produced those numbers as a 19-year-old in his stateside debut in 2009. He was almost as good as an 18-year-old in the Dominican Summer League in 2008 (2.59 ERA, 10 K/9, 2,4 BB/9, .167 BAA).

● Jason Parks' brief scouting report: "Monegro makes his living with a big heavy fastball that usually sits in the low 90s with above-average movement. His secondary pitches improved throughout the '09 season, especially his big 12-to-6 slow curveball that has become a second strikeout pitch. He has flashed a decent change-up with good shape and tumble."

● Given how he dominated out of the bullpen in the rookie league, Monegro will likely either pitch out of the Low-A Hickory bullpen or the Spokane starting rotation in 2010. The decision to start or relieve will likely be based upon how Monegro's secondary pitches look in spring training.

No. 4: Leury Garcia | DoB: 03/18/91 | 5' 7", 153 lb.
Acquired via: Undrafted international free agency (2007)

Stuff: Switch-hitting shortstop with excellent athleticism and arm

Year

Level

PA

BB

SO

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

2009

A

305

18

64

.231

.287

.286

.573

career

 

452

26

104

.225

.276

.284

.560

● Committed 42 errors while playing primarily shortstop in Hickory. His defense did show improvement, however, as his fielding percentage (88.4 percent) and plays per game (4.01) were better than they were in the Arizona Rookie League in 2008 (87.4 percent fielding percentage and 3.74 plays per game). 

● With the errors and a .573 OPS, it is easy to look at Garcia's second season in the Rangers system and assume that he is unlikely to develop into a compelling prospect. But it is worth noting that he spent the entire 2009 season as an 18-year-old competing in a full-season league with players who were mostly 2-4 years older. In addition, those who have seen him play rave about his physical ability (see below).

● "But scouts were laughing after a play that shortstop Leury Garcia made in the fourth. A Mariners hitter shot a ground ball toward the hole that Garcia backhanded on the dead run and, without planting and without jumping and without really even turning, he fired a sidearm laser across his body that the Royals first baseman snared on one hop, getting the out.  The laughter from the scouts on Garcia's play seemed to say, "That's a top 10 prospect in a lot of systems. Sick depth." (Jamey Newberg at the 2009 Fall Instructional League)

● "[Garcia has] a plus-plus arm and plus-plus speed that translates into excellent range. He has earned the nickname "Furcalito", which gives you some idea of his tools. He's also a switch-hitter with some strength in his swing. Very interesting tool set." (Aaron Fitt, Baseball America)

● Guys with tools rarely live up to the hype, but when they do, the results can be spectacular. Fewer strikeouts, more walks, a bit more power, and more consistent defense will indicate that Garcia is converting tools to skills and potential to performance.

No. 5: Vin DiFazio | DoB: 05/15/86 | 6' 1", 215 lb.
Acquired via: 2009 MLB Draft, 12th Round

Stuff: Right-handed hitting catcher combines patience with power at the plate; scouting reports suggest that he is solid defensively with a strong, though he threw out just 28 percent of would-be base stealers in 2009 

Year

Level

PA

BB

SO

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

2009

A-ss/A

288

41

49

.278

.417

.526

.943

● Travis Hafner. Ian Kinsler. Mitch Moreland. Every so often, a college hitter drafted in the later rounds proves to be much more than expected. Based on their debut performances, it appears that Vin Difazio is the most likely late-round draft pick from the Class of '09 to develop into a legitimate prospect. In addition to showing exceptional power in his debut season (12 doubles, one triple triple, 12 home runs in 230 at-bats), Difazio displayed an advanced approach at the plate by working 41 walks against 49 strikeouts.

● In 2005, Difazio followed a stellar freshman year at UConn where he hit .306/.421/.395 (including 16 walks against 21 strikeouts) by being named the top prospect in the Atlantic Collegiate League by Baseball America. Will Kimmey's thumbnail on Difazio included: "DiFazio paced the ACBL with 42 RBIs and ranked second in hits, runs, doubles and triples while batting .331/.407/.570. His defense behind the plate impressed just as much, especially his arm strength and sturdy frame (6-foot, 200 pounds)."

● Difazio was sidelined for much of the 2006-2008 seasons dealing with the effects of a viral nerve infection, but he returned to the college scene in 2009 with a .290/.423/.645 line in 140 at-bats for the University of Alabama before being drafted by the Rangers.

● Given his age and advanced bat, it appears likely that DiFazio will begin 2010 in Bakersfield where he will have the opportunity to put up another impressive hitting line.  A .400-plus OBP, .500-plus slugging percentage and reports of solid defense would be sufficient to get the catcher moving north on lists of Rangers prospects.

No. 6: Tommy Mendonca | DoB: 04/12/88 | 6' 1", 200 lb.
Acquired via: 2009 MLB Draft, 2nd Round

Stuff: Solid defense at third base.  Excellent power but contact issues

Year

Level

PA

BB

SO

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

2009

A-ss/A+

241

10

78

.290

.343

.489

.832

● Despite striking out in 32 percent of his plate appearances, Mendonca had a very productive debut season.  He hit for average and power in Spokane (.309/.361/.537 in 205 plate appearances) and then struggled in 11 games following a promotion to the California League (.209/.261/.270).  Mendonca's numbers in Spokane benefited from a .434 batting average on ball in play (BABIP) that was far higher than his 17.1 percent line drive rate would have predicted.

● Baseball America rated Mendonca the 11th-best prospect in the Northwest League in 2009 and had the following to say: "While the ball jumps off Mendonca's bat, he does have issues making contact (66 strikeouts in 188 at-bats) and more experienced pitchers could exploit his overly aggressive approach (he drew just nine walks). His bat path is a little too deep and he drops his hands during his swing, causing him to get underneath a lot of fastballs. (On defense, Mendonca) has good instincts, a quick transfer and short throwing motion. His throws can get sloppy, as he sometimes drops down and flips the ball across the diamond."

● There are those who invoke the name of Chris Davis when discussing Mendonca. The stats from their times in Spokane don't exactly support that comparison as Davis struck out in only 23 percent of his at-bats to go along with an almost 10 percent walk rate (23 walks in 253 at-bats).

● Mendonca seems likely to begin 2010 as the starting third baseman at High-A Bakersfield. Reducing his strikeout rate to below 25 percent and increasing his walk rate to 8-10 percent while maintaining his power will indicate that Mendonca is making progress. The California League has a way of making power hitters look like stars, so it would not be surprising to see Mendonca get off to a hot start.

Thursday
17Dec2009

Ask Professor Parks: Julius Sumner Miller Edition

First of all, I'd like to acknowledge the excellent content that is produced on this site on a daily basis. David, Trip and especially Joey have turned Baseball Time in Arlington into a great resource for Texas Rangers fans. Many thanks to them for letting me crash the party. I missed it. 

You know the drill. Do you have a question about the Rangers' farm system? Do you have a question about the players in the Show? Anything goes. I'll be here all day.

Wednesday
16Dec2009

NEWSFLASH: Tom Hicks Selects Greenberg/Ryan Ownership Group

Fireworks light up the sky over Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on Friday, June 26th.It appears that our long-standing regional sports crisis is finally blasting along at full speed towards the resolution many have been longing for, as Tom Hicks formally announced his selection of the ownership consortium headed by Chuck Greenberg and Nolan Ryan on Tuesday evening and will reportedly request that Major League Baseball approve his decision to grant exclusive negotiating rights to the apparent winning bidders.

While Hicks' selection of Greenberg/Ryan is not tantamount to an iron-clad assurance that they will ultimately purchase the financially embattled franchise, it's probably the single biggest hurdle that needed to be cleared in a process which will entail (a) acting on the plan to nourish Hicks Sports Group with the necessary capital to begin satisfying Hicks' creditors, (b) finalizing the agreement between the two entities during a 45-day negotiating window and (c) obtaining the approval of 75 percent of the league's owners. All three conditions appear likely to be fulfilled.

Interestingly, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports that the Greenberg/Ryan group did not enhance its bid until sometime Tuesday afternoon, at which point it seemed apparent that Jim Crane was poised to emerge victorious by virtue of his far financially superior offer; in that sense, it almost seems as though Hicks permitted Crane to re-submit his bid after the original December 7th deadline in an effort to create leverage and push Greenberg/Ryan -- with whom he had already aligned -- to find more money to put into the pot. If that was indeed Hicks' intention all along, it worked to perfection, and more power to him for pulling it off.

Candidly, this whole story is a little bit anticlimactic for me -- we've been talking about the ownership situation for so long now that I find myself feeling somewhat numb to these latest developments, and we still don't know how well the Greenberg/Ryan group will actually fare once the transfer of power is complete, but the early indications are good: heavy financial support from local investors, the retention of Ryan in his current capacity, the probable stability in the baseball operations department and so forth.

I'd be a fool if I said that it didn't all look very appealing and neat and tidy on paper, but until the sale is finalized, the new ownership regime is in place and some stuff actually starts going down (such as aggressive movement in next winter's market, where bountiful pitching riches await and the promise of being able to write off new contracts looms large), the bulk of the celebration should be directed towards Hicks' ouster more so than the entrance of Greenberg and company. The extrication of that damaging element of fiscal irresponsibility is the single biggest thing that we should be excited about.

If electing to reserve judgment on Greenberg/Ryan until a later date while maintaining an air of cautious optimism makes me a killjoy, then I apologize ... but then again, not really, because after what this team and its fans have been through in the last six months, I don't think anybody is going to begrudge a little hard-earned cynicism on anybody else's part.

Site-Related Announcement: After a prolonged hiatus, Jason Parks will be returning to Baseball Time in Arlington tomorrow for a special all-day "Ask Professor Parks" Q&A session. Get all of your burning questions answered on baseball, music, fine art and the meaning of life in general.

Tuesday
15Dec2009

The Rise Of Jim Crane, The Fall Of Tom Hicks And Some Perspective

Pretty appropriate picture, don't you think?One immediately got the sense that something strange was brewing when freight-forwarding magnate Jim Crane was permitted to re-submit his ownership bid days after the original December 7th deadline for bid modification had passed, and it now appears that whatever might have been brewing has come to a head, as numerous sources -- including MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan -- are reporting that Crane has emerged as the front-runner in the Texas Rangers ownership sweepstakes.

Not impressed yet? Today is the purported baseball-imposed deadline by which Tom Hicks must offer his ownership recommendation. And, thusly, time is now of the essence.

According to Daniel Kaplan of the SportsBusiness Journal, Crane's bid -- which is apparently north of the $500 million mark; the values of the proposals presented by Dennis Gilbert and Chuck Greenberg are less certain -- would offer two appealing features to Hicks and his close-trailing creditors: (a) Crane would allow Hicks to remain on board as a minority investor in the franchise and (b) Crane's bid is thought to be financially superior to the competition and offer the best terms to the banks.

From the outside looking in, there seem to be numerous variables holding varying amounts of sway in the bid-selecting process; whichever offer best satisfies Hicks' creditors is the inherent favorite (and rightly so), but then there is Hicks' desire to retain some sort of ownership stake, the value of the backing of numerous regional investors, the influence of Nolan Ryan, the lobbying of Jerry Reinsdorf and friends, the owners' disdain for Crane, the manipulation of Bud Selig ... did I miss anything? There's so much talk about the value of the human element in the game of baseball itself, but never has the human element seemed more consequential than it has in this sale process to date.

The other main thought that springs to mind concerns the apparent division of the ownership-concerned fan base into pro-Greenberg or pro-Gilbert factions, a phenomenon which I'll freely admit to having contributed to. See, I'm part of the problem. I readily bought into the "Beware Dennis Gilbert!" hype on the basis of work from non-impartial columnists such as Jon Heyman and Randy Galloway; in actuality, both have their own personal agendas and biases, with Heyman's seeming preference of Gilbert being reflected in his writing and Galloway obviously preferring the Ryan-backed Greenberg.

When you get right down to it, we think we know who these guys are, but in reality we don't really know them at all -- 90-plus percent of what we do know about the Greenberg/Gilbert/Crane trifecta has been disseminated through the mainstream media, and that's fine and all for informational purposes, but it's simply not enough to discern whether one prospective owner is really better for the future health of the franchise than the other. Losing Ryan in the event of Gilbert's triumph is a certainly a compelling reason to root for Greenberg, but what would that really tell us about the business acumen or the baseball knowledge or, heck, the all-around competence of any involved party? Not much.

After filtering out the hearsay and the speculation and the personal biases, here's what we're pretty much left with: Greenberg has allied with Ryan, has the backing of local investors and has been successful in running several minor league franchises; Gilbert has some very progressive ideas (Mexican baseball academy, regional sports network, etc.) and wants to work in baseball operations; Crane has lots of money. Those are really the only relevant and irrefutable facts. That's the fact sheet that we should using. Nobody is going to, of course, and I can't fault anybody for that, but we simply don't have the requisite knowledge to categorically state that "Owner X would be bad for the Rangers."

It wouldn't appear that Tom Hicks deserves that same benefit of the doubt, however, because we know what he has done: leveraged not only the Rangers, but also the Dallas Stars -- whom he couldn't leverage in advance of the February 2007 Liverpool FC purchase because he had already saddled them with $200-plus million in debt well beforehand -- to a point where the debt exceeded 80-plus percent of each of his teams' values.

That stratagem could have theoretically paid off if the economy hadn't tanked, but it did tank and it didn't pay off, and now Hicks has, in effect, financially crippled his baseball team, ticked off MLB and the NHL, incensed his lenders by funding operating losses for the Rangers and Stars out of an interest reserve connected to his defaulted $525 million loan, and backed himself into a corner from which there doesn't appear to be any escape. That's a pattern of financial irresponsibility across multiple professional sports franchises that should prompt his eternal banishment from the local sports scene.

Quick Hits: The Max Ramirez-for-Mike Lowell trade remains on hold indefinitely, with no apparent timetable for completion; NESN's Peter Gammons reported on Monday that Lowell may require thumb surgery, further jeopardizing the deal ... If the three-team megadeal that might send the Mariners' Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies and J.C. Ramirez to the Phillies in exchange for ace left-hander Cliff Lee ultimately goes down, the Rangers need to be very worried, and here's why ... Boston is reportedly close to signing free agent right-hander John Lackey to a five-year, $82.5 million contract.

Before recently non-tendered ex-Royals catcher John Buck was snapped up by the Blue Jays with a one-year, $2 million deal, the Rangers offered Buck a one-year contract with less guaranteed money that was, of course, rejected ... ESPN.com's Buster Olney reports that Nelson Cruz recently incurred an ankle injury while playing in the Dominican Winter League, but an MRI determined it was merely inflammation.

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