Baseball Time in Arlington: A Texas Rangers Blog

Some early-morning scuttlebutt from baseball's hot stove ... and, somewhat appropriately for this chilly winter morning, this incredibly chill ATCQ remix:

● Texas maintains "serious interest" in free agent designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero, and has apparently made the 34-year-old slugger an offer; however, other club sources appear to be indicating that "nothing has changed" on the Guerrero front in the last 24-48 hours (T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com; Anthony Andro, Fort Worth Star-Telegram)

[I'm going to take this all to mean that Jim Bowden's "source" -- who purported yesterday afternoon that the Rangers were finalizing a one-year contract with Guerrero -- jumped the gun to some extent, but given the way that the media's coverage of this story has run the gamut from "a signing is imminent" to "there's nothing going on whatsoever," it's entirely possible that Bowden is still onto something. Should be fun to monitor, if nothing else.]

● The Rangers remain interested in free agent outfielder Jermaine Dye, with whom club officials recently met in Los Angeles (Evan Grant, Dallas Morning News)

[If you think of the contract-negotiating process as being comprised of multiple stages, then a face-to-face confab between player and team is probably the stage right before a contract ends up being tendered. In this case, I don't think that's necessarily a good thing; Dye has never been on the same offensive level as Guerrero, and doesn't hold an advantage over Guerrero in terms of defensive utility (hint: neither really has any to speak of), so unless you can snag him at a significant discount relative to what Guerrero would cost, acquiring him doesn't make a tremendous deal of sense.]

● Catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia has been medically cleared to resume baseball activities after being shut down following an abortive Dominican Winter League stint; Saltalamacchia evidently attempted to resume playing baseball five weeks before the date recommended by operating surgeon Dr. Gregory Pearl (T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com)

[Don't know why Saltalamacchia thought this would be a good idea, or -- perhaps even more importantly -- why nobody with the authority to put the kibosh on this idea actually did so, but at least nothing has gone terribly awry ... yet. That being said, there have been several noteworthy cases of Rangers players declining winter ball intivations (e.g. Gerald Laird and Laynce Nix) and ultimately landing in the organizational doghouse, but then those cases primarily took place during the John Hart administration, so perhaps there's really nothing to see here at all.]

Quick Hits: Texas has signed minor league third baseman Matt Brown to a minor league deal; the Angels' 10th-round selection in the 2001 amateur draft, Brown is a lifetime .269/.349/.461 hitter in the minors with an unremarkable smattering of major league plate appearances ... The Rangers have released their 2010 Winter Caravan schedule ... Outfielder Mitch Moreland, left-hander Martin Perez and outfielder Craig Gentry have nabbed this year's round of minor league awards ... Former Rangers catcher Bill Haselman will manage the High-A Bakersfield Blaze in 2010.

http://texas.rangers.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20100105&content_id=7878608&vkey=pr_tex&fext=.jsp&c_id=tex

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Hot Stove Season,

Friday

08Jan2010

The Vladimir Guerrero-To-Texas Rumor That Just Wouldn't Die

Joey Matschulat |

Friday, January 8, 2010 at 6:00 AM |

It's been nearly two months since the Texas Rangers and free agent designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero were first linked (albeit in a somewhat nebulous manner), and yet if you had slipped into a coma on November 14th and had just woken up yesterday without having yet seen the calendar, you'd never know that two months had elapsed solely from the media coverage of this rumor. Frankly, it's getting just a little bit silly. I'll show you what I mean.

As far as I can tell, here's what we've been fed by a wide-ranging assortment of media sources in the last 24 hours: (a) Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes initially reported that the Rangers had offered Guerrero a one-year, $7 million contract, after which (b) ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick reported that Texas was "unlikely" to offer Guerrero more than $5 million, after which (c) MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan reported that the Rangers' one-year contract offer had been confirmed (but not the actual value), after which (d) a club source indicated that the Rangers hadn't made an offer to Guerrero at all and, furthermore, hadn't made any progress in weeks. So, who are we supposed to believe?

I have a rather difficult time imagining that all of this smoke would be materializing at the same time without there being some sort of fire (or smoldering embers, at least), but conversely, I don't think you can discount the possibility that Guerrero's camp is intentionally feeding misinformation into the Dominican media grapevine with the (innocuous) goal of keeping his name on the tip of everybody's tongue. Not sure I'm quite as inclined to buy into the notion that this is all designed to artificially inflate his market; such a stratagem could certainly work in theory, but major league teams know how this game is played and are presumably pretty wise to such old tricks by now.

Two months ago, I wrote that signing Guerrero made some degree of sense, but only if he could be nabbed with a one-year deal worth around $3-4 million; this opinion was formulated on the basis of Guerrero being enormously talented with some offensive upside potential, which is all well and good, except that you also have to incorporate the risk factors (e.g. defensive uselessness, age and injury history, among other things) and adjust his expected value accordingly. I remain wholly unconvinced that Guerrero would be a smart buy at $7 million, but then again, I don't really expect him to pull that much down -- maybe, maybe, one year, $5 million with a second-year team option.

And, hey, perhaps that would work out splendidly for Texas, since adding Guerrero would free up ostensible everyday-designated-hitter-of-the-moment David Murphy and allow him to help out more liberally at the corner outfield spots ... but therein lies another dilemma. I'm going to wager that Guerrero would demand some sort of assurance of everyday playing time before coming to terms on any sort of deal, meaning that he would likely consume at least 550-600 plate appearances at designated hitter.

If you spell Josh Hamilton and/or Nelson Cruz with Murphy, who ends up being jettisoned to the bench: Guerrero, or one of the higher-upside Hamilton/Cruz? And see, there's a real-life example of one of the big problems with bringing Guerrero aboard -- he's somebody that's probably going to log near-everyday playing time, as well as somebody that you're going to feel totally compelled to protect via the DH spot, because he, much like Milton Bradley, is a fairly significant injury risk, and you don't want to take unnecessary risks with a key offensive piece whose salary comprises nearly one-tenth of your entire major league payroll.

One key difference? Defensively speaking, Bradley is adequate. Guerrero, on the other hand, is an abomination. No defense-embracing front office could possibly feel good about allowing Guerrero to play in the outfield unless the game had already deterioriated into a 10-run blowout, or unless he was cutting down riotous outfield spectators with a fungo bat ala Billy Martin and friends during 1974's infamous "10-Cent Beer Night."

Of course, let's not solely focus on the downside -- if Guerrero resumes hitting at a .370-plus wOBA clip, he'd be a fine acquisition, and if he were to approach the .400 wOBA threshold that he hovered right at or above for an entire decade, that would be a rather tremendous coup. Some people would submit that betting on Guerrero to return to that high-caliber form is a relatively safe bet, and I applaud those people for their indefatigable optimism. I don't completely buy into that mindset, but I do know that I'd like nothing better than to see all of this come together nicely and neatly and pay big dividends for Texas, and perhaps that's exactly what will happen very soon.

Soon, as in "right after we stop receiving four different accounts of one rumor in a single day." Exactly when that will take place is a whole 'nother topic for a whole 'nother day.

[3:15 p.m Update: Take this with a grain of salt, but a source close to former Nationals general manager Jim Bowden (of XM's "MLB Home Plate" radio station) indicates that the Rangers are currently finalizing a one-year contract with Guerrero, pending physical.]

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Hot Stove Season,

Thursday

07Jan2010

Strikeouts And Ground Balls: The Rangers' 2010 Rotation Candidates

David |

Thursday, January 7, 2010 at 6:00 AM |

There are a lot of great baseball analysts whose work is captured in books and on the internet. In the coming weeks, I plan to run a series of articles that will review some of the more intriguing studies that have been published in the past few years and apply the results of these studies to the current Rangers.

In 2007, Rich Lederer began using scatter plots to compare major league pitchers based upon their strikeout and ground ball rates. Lederer theorized that strikeouts and ground balls were the two most favorable outcomes for a pitcher and that the most effective pitchers would be those who were best able to induce strikeouts and groundouts. Consistent with his hypothesis, Lederer found that most top-of-the-rotation starters had higher than average strikeout and ground ball rates and thus were clustered in the upper right-hand corner of his scatter plots.

Mid-rotation starters were typically strikeout/fly ball pitchers and non-strikeout/ground ball pitchers who clustered in the upper left and lower right quadrants of his plots. And pitchers whose strikeout and ground ball rates were below average tended to be back-of-the-rotation pitchers, or failed starters who clustered in the lower left-hand quadrant of his plots.

Rich's most recent graphs were published prior to the 2009 season and used data from 2008. Provided below is a Lederer scatter plot using strikeout and groundball rates for the 123 pitchers who tossed at least 100 major league innings in 2009. Overlaid on this plot are the strikeout/ground ball rates of Rich Harden, Scott Feldman, Derek Holland, Tommy Hunter, Brandon McCarthy, C.J. Wilson, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, and Guillermo Moscoso.

LEDERER PLOT OF 2009 STARTING PITCHERS (PLUS RANGERS STARTING CANDIDATES)

The red lines bisect the plot at the average strikeout and ground ball rates for all of the pitchers considered. Names in black show non-Ranger pitchers to provide orientation -- strikeout/ground ball pitchers like Felix Hernandez, Jon Lester, and Tim Lincecum appear in the upper right; strikeout/fly ball pitchers like Javier Vasquez (and Rich Harden) appear in the lower right; fly ball/non-strikeout pitchers like Jeremy Sowers and the 2009 version of Kevin Millwood appear in the lower left; ground ball/non-strikeout pitchers like Aaron Cook and John Lannan appear in the upper left, and solidly average pitchers like John Danks appear in the middle. The ten Rangers pitchers who are candidates to pitch out of the rotation in 2010 are shown in red.

With the caveat that they generated their 2009 results as relievers, it is easy to see the attraction of having C.J. Wilson and Neftali Feliz in the starting rotation. Wilson's 2009 numbers place him solidly in the upper right-hand quadrant and 2009 was not a fluke as his career strikeout (21.1 percent) and ground ball (52.9 percent) rates are the results one expects of a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. If he can limit his walks and give the Rangers 5-6 innings per start, he could be fabulous as a starter. Feliz's 37.5 percent ground ball rate should improve with time (his minor league ground ball rate was 45.6 percent), so it would not be a surprise to see Feliz move into the upper right quadrant, perhaps into Lincecum/Lester territory.

Rich Harden's high strikeout rate allows him to overcome his fly ball tendencies, while Scott Feldman and Matt Harrison overcome low strikeout rates with strong ground ball rates. Harrison's 12 percent strikeout rate is among the lowest in baseball, so he will need to maintain high ground ball and low walk rates to be effective. Feldman's strikeout rate improved during the season, though the 14.2 percent rate that he finished with was still well below the average for major league starters (17.7 percent).

In 2009, Brandon McCarthy combined slightly below-average strikeout and ground ball rates, which is consistent with his career numbers (16.9 percent strikeout rate, 36.4 percent ground ball rate). Dustin Nippert was as close to average as any of the Rangers' starting candidates, which is consistent with his career numbers (17.5 percent strikeouts, 40.3 percent groundballs). Worth noting is that Nippert's 2009 and career rates are superior to McCarthy's.

Tommy Hunter fell in the lower left quadrant with below average strikeout (13.5 percent) and ground ball (37.4 percent) rates. Hunter's strikeout rate might improve, but it will likely never get up to league average. His ground ball rate, however, appears likely to improve given the 49.3 percent mark that he enjoyed as a minor leaguer. It would not be surprising to see Hunter move into Scott Feldman's neighborhood on the Lederer plot.

In his rookie season, Derek Holland combined an above-average strikeout rate (18.2 percent) with a surprisingly low ground ball rate (39.8 percent). Young major league pitchers often improve their ground ball rates, and it is likely that Holland will approach the 45.9 percent ground ball rate that he enjoyed as a minor leaguer. At worst, that would move Holland into John Danks territory, and if he can improve his strikeout rate along with his ground ball rate, then he could take up residence in the upper right quadrant.

Consistent with his minor league career, Guillermo Moscoso combined a slightly above-average strikeout rate (18.8 percent) with a significantly below-average groundball rate (33.3 percent) in his first major league action. Scott Baker, Scott Richmond, Aaron Harang, and David Bush are Moscoso's nearest neighbors in the plot.

Using strikeout and ground ball rates as the key criteria for pitcher selection, it seems reasonably clear that the leading candidates for the Rangers' rotation in 2010 are C.J. Wilson, Rich Harden, Neftali Feliz, Scott Feldman, and either Dustin Nippert or Derek Holland.

34 Comments | in

Wednesday

06Jan2010

On Riley Cooper, Victor Payano, Franklin Gutierrez And Defense

Joey Matschulat |

Wednesday, January 6, 2010 at 6:30 AM |

Florida Gators wide receiver Riley Cooper pulls down an 80-yard catch on Friday, January 1st.Despite several fairly close calls, Randy Johnson never did make it around to pitching in a Texas Rangers uniform, but that's okay -- it was an honor and a privilege to watch him carve up opposing hitters for as long as he did, and it's not at all hyperbolic to suggest that he's probably the greatest left-handed pitcher that most of us ever got the chance to see. Enjoy your retirement in peace, Randy:

● From the "Are We Ever Going To Make It To April?" newsfeed comes a bit of that always welcome "chatting through the media" between general manager Jon Daniels and 25th-round pick Riley Cooper, who recently intimated that he might leverage his successful senior season as the University of Florida's leading wide receiver into a bid for NFL stardom, and also suggested that the Rangers' lack of contact reflected a lack of interest in keeping him around.

Daniels clarified that he had remained in regular contact with Riley's representatives and fully expected Cooper to report to spring training next month, but if Riley's primary motivation is money, that may no longer be the safe bet. Why? Well, Riley procured a $250,000 signing bonus from Texas (which he must forfeit if he ultimately opts for football), but if you assume that his NFL draft stock has been elevated to a point where he will be selected within the first three rounds ... well, guess what? He could be in line for a signing bonus worth two to four times as much in the NFL, as well as greater expected future earnings, neither of which would be available via baseball.

● There has been some limited amount of under-the-breath grumbling about the Rangers' seeming inability to fully capitalize upon what has been a somewhat depressed winter market for amateur Latin American talent (e.g. Noel Arguelles and Aroldis Chapman, among others), but Texas did recently manage to cash in on Victor Payano, a sturdy 6' 3", 165-pound Dominican left-hander whose previous $900,000 deal with the Red Sox was nixed after his required pre-signing physical revealed shoulder problems; embedded below is a 12-second clip of Payano plying his craft during pre-July workouts:

[Direct link available here. Regarding Payano's stuff, Kiley McDaniel of Baseball Prospectus -- from whom the above video was obviously borrowed -- remarked back on June 8th, 2009 that Payano flashed a "heavy" 85-88 mph fastball during this showcase, as well as an "average slider and change-up. Points were awarded for his "very projectable" frame, "solid" command and "simple, repeatable mechanics."]

Payano's market value somewhat resembled the EKG tracing of a single heartbeat, in the sense that he was originally "thought of as a low-to-mid six-figure guy" (also via Kiley McDaniel), followed by a marked value spike that launched him to the doorstep of seven digits, and now a major health-related plunge in value that has rendered him accessible to Texas. Back in mid-November, ESPN.com's Jorge Arangure Jr. speculated that Payano would yet again secure Red Sox-esque money, but it doesn't seem terribly likely that he managed to squeeze that much out of the Rangers, let alone even $500,000.

● When word of Franklin Gutierrez's impending four-year, $20.5 million contract extension with the Mariners broke on Tuesday afternoon, the first thought to race through my head went something like this: "Damn, what a steal." Yeah, he's entering his arbitration-eligible seasons (with his first free agency year also being bought out, and an attached fifth-year team option), but they're also his prime production seasons, and not even a nondescript offensive year could mitigate the Hall of Fame-caliber defensive range that pushed him to the 5.9-win mark in 2009. He'll regress from that mark, but not enough to render this extension anything less than superb for Seattle.

This all immediately segued into a second, more pointed thought: "Why couldn't Gutierrez get more than what he got?" It's true that he sacrificed some future compensation in exchange for the security afforded by a long-term deal, but that still doesn't fully account for the rather wide disparity between his projected value and future earnings ... and then it hit me. Defense. It's great for winning games, and great for your paycheck/reputation if you can collect a Gold Glove or three, but what if your overall value is mostly predicated on your defensive contributions and you have no hardware to show for it?

We know that major league teams are now, by and large, properly valuing defense, but arbitration panels -- which still largely rely upon Elias-friendly counting stats such as hits, runs batted in and home runs in ruling for the team or the player -- have not yet progressed to the point where advanced defensive metrics such as Ultimate Zone Rating and plus/minus are properly weighted. Oh, sure, they'll presumably get there at some point, but they're certainly not there yet, and until they do get there, defense-first, offense-second guys like Gutierrez are going to remain at an inherent disadvantage in the arbitration process relative to their more offense-inclined counterparts.

I suppose this hypothesis -- which hasn't yet been tested, but certainly passes the logic test -- is best illustrated by a quick example: Player X and Player Y exist in alternate dimensions, but are exactly the same age, play the same position 162 games per year, are both arbitration-eligible for the first time, are equivalent in "leadership qualities," have identical peers and so on. The only difference? Player X is 20 runs above average offensively and 10 runs below average defensively, whereas Player Y is five runs below average offensively and 15 runs above average defensively. They might both be 10 runs above average overall, but Player X is assuredly going to pull down the bigger paycheck.

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Tuesday

05Jan2010

Rangers Prospect Prognostications: The Top 100 Prospects

David |

Tuesday, January 5, 2010 at 6:00 AM |

Robbie Ross - Photo courtesy of Jason ParksJohn Manuel and Jim Callis of Baseball America (BA) have both revealed -- here and here, respectively -- that they have ranked the Rangers' minor league system as the best in baseball for the second year in a row. With Justin Smoak and Neftali Feliz expected to graduate, the Texas Rangers will need a few players to move into BA's Top 100 Prospects list in the coming year if the organization is to continue its run of prospect dominance.

Assuming they are healthy and retain their prospect status, Martin Perez and Tanner Scheppers are likely to headline the Rangers' candidates for inclusion in BA's Top 100 Prospects list for 2011. Given the quality of the Rangers system, it seems likely that one or more players will step forward in 2010 and join the list of elite prospects.

To get a sense of who is most likely to become a Top 100 prospect, it is worth considering the makeup of previous BA Top 100 Prospects lists. The 2009 list included 41 players who were ranked among the Top 100 prospects in 2008. Three of the 59 new players in 2009 had made the 2007 list but been dropped from the 2008 list due to injury or ineffectiveness (Daniel Bard, Jeff Samardzija and Sean West). The 56 remaining players who made their Top 100 debuts in 2009 were:

● 19 teenaged prospects who proved themselves in their full-season league debuts;
● 17 prospects in their early-20s who had breakout seasons in the upper minors;
● 15 draft picks from 2008 (some of whom played in 2008, many of whom did not); and
● 5 international free agents

The six leading candidates from the Rangers' system who are most likely to debut as Top 100 prospects in 2011 are:

No. 1: RHP Michael Main | DoB: 12/14/88 | 6′ 1″, 170 lb.
Acquired via: 2007 MLB Draft, 1st Round (24th overall)

Stuff: Low-to-mid-90s fastball; tight curveball; potentially above-average change-up

Although Main has not yet been included in a BA Top 100 list, the publication's writers have certainly taken notice:

● Aaron Fitt rated Main the sixth-best prospect in the Rangers' system in 2008, writing that "Main evokes Bret Saberhagen for his slight build, plus-plus arm strength, intelligence and determination. He pitches with minimal effort at 92-97 mph with a lively fastball, and he did a much better job keeping the pitch down in the zone in 2007 than he did in high school in 2006.”

● Despite an injury-shortened 2008 season and breakouts from multiple Rangers prospects, Fitt rated Main the eighth-best prospect in the system in 2009, writing that "when the Rangers introduced Main to an over-the-head windup to help generate more momentum, his velocity spiked to 92-96 mph in instructional league. He commands his fastball to both halves of the plate, and his tight downer curveball could give him a second plus offering in the future. Main's electric arm could make him a frontline starter after a few years of development.”

● Main's prospect status will depend on how well he rebounds from two seasons of relative inactivity. Main showed that he could be effective in the California League when he had his strength and the velocity on his fastball. If he is assigned to High-A Bakersfield to begin 2010, then a dominant month or two (ala Michael Kirkman, circa 2009) could earn him a promotion to the Texas League where he can show that he is healthy and worthy of elite prospect status.

● Assuming he pitches 50 or more innings in the Texas League in 2010, he will likely need a pitching line similar to Kyle Drabek's 2009 Double-A numbers (3.64 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.6 H/9) to warrant a spot on BA's Top 100 list. If he is healthy, Main clearly has the ability to hit those numbers.

No. 2: New Draft Picks

With four picks among the top 50 in the 2010 MLB draft (including No. 15 and No. 22) and a recent history of selecting the best player available, it appears possible and perhaps even likely that the Rangers will acquire a Top 100 candidate via the 2010 major league draft.

No. 3: C Tomas Telis | DoB: 06/18/91 | 5′ 8″, 175 lb.
Acquired via: International free agency (2007)

Stuff: Switch-hitter with excellent bat control, a line drive stroke, and developing power; former shortstop is athletic but still raw as a catcher

● Baseball America's Bill Mitchell is aware of Telis after ranking him as the No. 16 prospect in the Arizona Rookie League, as well as writing this: "Telis, who hit .322 in his first season in the United States, makes consistent contact and gets good carry on the ball. He won't be a big power hitter, but he could hit 15-20 homers per years once he learns that a few more strikeouts will be acceptable as long as he drives the ball. He's still very raw as a catcher and needs to dedicate himself to improving his defense."

● Telis will likely play 2010 as one of the youngest players in a full-season league. The South Atlantic League is not particularly friendly to hitters, though five hitters who played in the SAL in 2010 are likely to be on BA's Top 100 list in 2010.

● Catcher Derek Norris locked up a Top 100 spot with a .286/.413/.513 line in the SAL as a 20-year-old in 2009. Telis likely needs to approach what Norris did on offense and show progress with his defense to ensure a spot on BA's Top 100 list in 2011. For his career, Telis has more extra base hits (37) than strikeouts (35), so it seems entirely possible that he will be able to equal or exceed Norris' batting average and slugging percentage. He will need to approach the 9.0 percent walk rate that he had as a 17-year-old in the Dominican Summer League to get close to a .400 OBP. Given his career line and how he finished 2010, Telis seems capable of posting a .310/.375/.500 line in 2010, which would likely be enough to merit consideration in the back half of BA's list.

No. 4: LHP Robbie Ross | DoB: 06/24/89 | 6' 0", 170 lb.
Acquired via: 2008 MLB Draft, 2nd Round (57th overall)

Stuff: Low-90s fastball; above-average slider and change-up

● BA knows Robbie Ross, rating him as the best pitcher and seventh-best prospect in the Northwest League. Conor Glassey wrote, "Ross touched 93-94 mph early in the summer before beginning to tire, and he sat at 90-92 [mph] for much of the year. He keeps his fastball down and it has good run, resulting in a 3.2 groundout/airout ratio, and he also can throw it by hitters up in the zone. He hides the ball well and is especially tough on lefthanders."

● Ross has what BA likes to see in an elite pitching prospect -- outstanding command of two potentially plus pitches (fastball and slider) and at least an average third pitch (change-up). Ross's chances of becoming a Top 100 prospect will likely depend upon where he pitches in 2010. If he spends significant time at Low-A Hickory, then Ross could dominate the SAL and post the gaudy numbers that get noticed. Despite possessing the command and power arsenal that allow pitchers to be effective in the California League, it seems less likely that he would attain Top 100 status if he pitches most of 2010 in Bakersfield.

● Three left-handed starters who pitched 2009 as 20-year-olds in Low-A leagues (Montgomery, Crosby, and Moore) appear likely to make BA's Top 100 list in 2010. Their combined pitching line in Low-A was 2.48 ERA, 10.4 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, and 6.3 H/9. As noted in the table above, Ross' 2009 numbers were pretty close to that. Assuming Ross can recapture and maintain the stuff that he had in the first half of 2009 when his strikeout rate was 10.8 K/9, it seems likely that he can achieve the target numbers of this year's lower-level lefties.

● "Electric fastball." "Plus slider." "Short, competitive lefty." How long will it take for a scout or writer to dial up the Scott Kazmir comp if Ross gets off to a strong start in 2010?

No. 5: RHP Danny Gutierrez | DoB: 03/08/87 | 6′ 1″, 180 lb.
Acquired via: Trade for C Manuel Pina, OF Tim Smith (09/03/09)

Stuff: Low-to-mid-90s fastball; 12-to-6 curveball; developing change-up

● BA's J.J. Cooper has noticed Gutierrez, rating him the seventh-best prospect in the Royals system in 2009 while having the following to say: "Gutierrez pounds the lower part of the strike zone with his fastball, generating plenty of grounders. He pitched at 88-92 mph early in the season but was working at 90-95 with good life at the end of the year. He has power and 12-to-6 break on a curveball that buries itself just as it reaches the plate. He also shows some feel for a changeup. He can locate his pitches to all four quadrants of the strike zone."

● Like the other pitchers in this article, Gutierrez has excellent command of two above-average to plus pitches (fastball and curveball). He needs to show a consistent change-up to convince BA and others that he can be a quality major league starting pitcher.

● Like Main, Gutierrez first needs to prove that he is healthy and capable of pitching a full season before he can be recognized as a Top 100 prospect. He will be 23 years old for the 2010 season and seems likely to begin the year in AA-bal. Esmil Rogers and Junichi Tazawa might sneak into BA's 2010 Top 100 list after pitching as 24 and 23 year olds, respectively, in AA-ball in 2009. The average Double-A pitching line for the two (2.52 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and 7.8 H/9) is likely the minimum that it would take for Gutierrez to be named a Top 100 prospect following 2010.

No. 6: OF Miguel Velazquez | DoB: 05/15/88 | 6' 2", 205 lb.
Acquired via: 2006 MLB Draft, 19th Round (568th overall)

Stuff: Five-tool talent with outstanding bat speed and a strong arm

● Baseball America loves athletes who are productive in full-season leagues. Michael Saunders, Dominic Brown, and Alcides Escobar debuted on the 2009 Top 100 list after they showed significant progress in turning their tools into skills. Engel Beltre and Miguel Velazquez could both vault onto BA's Top 100 list with outstanding 2010 seasons. Given Velazquez's superior plate approach and the likelihood that he will spend a significant portion of 2010 in the California League, I think that he is the more likely prospect to turn in an attention-grabbing season.

● BA's Conor Glassey has already taken notice of Velazquez, rating him the 10th-best prospect in the Northwest League following the 2009 season while having the following to say: "Velzaquez showed five-tool potential. Pitchers pounded him with breaking balls, but he has a good approach and his above-average bat speed produces hard line drives and power to all fields. He has good speed, though he needs to work on his jumps on the bases and in right field, and a strong, accurate arm."

● Assuming Velasquez spends the 2010 season in Bakersfield, he will likely need to approach the 2009 numbers posted by Giants outfield prospect Thomas Neal (.337/.431/.579) to warrant a spot on the 2011 Top 100 list. The OBP component might be a bit of a stretch, but the batting average and slugging components both appear attainable given Velazquez's prior work.

17 Comments | in

Monday

04Jan2010

Monday Morning Rangers Notes: Jumping Back In The Saddle

Joey Matschulat |

Monday, January 4, 2010 at 6:00 AM |

Colby Lewis fires a first-inning pitch for the Hiroshima Carp on April 3rd, 2009.Wherein we celebrate not only the new year, but also two forthcoming Week 17 rematches in the NFL's wild card playoff round, the advent of new -- and badly needed -- reliever-valuing metrics, weird Hall of Fame ballots and the arrest of Gerald Laird:

● Since Hiroshima Carp ace right-hander Colby Lewis announced his intention to return to the majors in mid-December, the Rangers have explored the possibility of setting up a reunion with their former 1999 supplemental-round draft pick (T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com)

[There are those who are going to preemptively denounce the notion of bringing Lewis back entirely on the basis of what he did in a Rangers uniform from 2002-2004 -- which admittedly wasn't much -- while completely ignoring his 2008-2009 results in Japan's Central League. That's one way of assessing the wisdom behind a rumored signing, I guess, but it's not a very good way, because Lewis pitched at an exceptional level during his NPB stint, logging a 2.82 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 354.1 innings during his two seasons with Hiroshima while notching an incredible strikeouts-to-walks ratio of 369-to-46. I can't possibly overemphasize just how insane that last statistic is.

Now, we all know that success in Japan does not always translate into success in America (see also: Kazuo Fukumori), and one of the things that is germane to the Lewis-to-Texas discussion is the subject of his raw stuff; he's obviously working with above-average command (otherwise, those numbers wouldn't be attainable), but of what quality are these pitches that he is commanding so well? I don't directly know the answer to that question, but NPB Tracker's pitch data-mining feature suggests that he has been working off an 89-93 mph four-seam fastball, with a possible high-80s two-seamer, mid-80s slider and high-70s curveball mixed in for good measure. Not incredible, but most definitely sturdy.

It could be that Lewis ends up being somebody that the Rangers attempt to reel in with a one-year split contract, wherein he would be compensated more handsomely than his minor league peers if, say, he were to fail to crack the Opening Day roster and landed at Triple-A Oklahoma City as a decent-grade insurance policy. Assuming a reasonable price tag, that's not a bad idea at all, so long as Lewis understands that his opportunities to shine in the majors might be limited ... and come to think of it, that might be a pretty significant impediment to any deal getting done. We'll see.]

● With several of the Rangers' backup-catching targets reportedly demanding multi-year deals, Texas has maintained interest in Rays catcher Dioner Navarro (Richard Durrett, ESPNDallas.com)

[So much for my December 7th prognostication that Navarro would get non-tendered -- five days later, the Rays retained his services with a one-year, $2.1 million contract right before the non-tender deadline. At the time, I wrote that "[the] combination of a solid .295/.349/.407 campaign two years ago, relative youth and major league experience could form the basis for a connection with the Rangers."

I suppose the Rangers' continued interest in Navarro reflects the continued relevance of those bullet points, but now you're talking about devoting two resources -- cash and talent -- to the acquisition of an okay-but-definitely-not-great backup catcher, and depending on the terms of an agreement, I'm just not sure whether such a deal would really prove beneficial to the Rangers or not.]

● Murray Chass's rationale for yet again omitting Bert Blyleven from his Hall of Fame ballot (which he hastily completed right before the submission deadline, much like I handled my senior-year projects): "As good as Blyleven was in winning 287 games, he had some of his worst years when his team had good years. The best example of that dichotomy came in 1988 when the Twins finished second with a 91-71 record while Blyleven had a 10-17 record and a 5.43 [ERA]." (Murray Chass, via MurrayChass.com, on the MurrayNet)

[Okay, so clearly my 500-word assault on Jon Heyman's ballot -- which, like Chass's, comprised Jack Morris but not Bert Blyleven -- did not have any effect whatsoever. I'm not going to rehash that post here, but I will reiterate that you cannot deny admission to one of the best and most consistent pitchers in baseball history (Blyleven) while simultaneously admitting Morris in good conscience. It's utterly ridiculous. Look, there's a semi-legitimate case to be made for Morris, and I'm certainly not going to blast the people who are voting for both Morris and Blyleven, but I cannot comprehend how multiple card-carrying members of the BBWAA are arriving at this Morris-but-not-Blyleven decision.

In any event, this is a textbook example of confirmation bias: Chass is selectively collecting evidence to reinforce his predetermined position on Blyleven's candidacy, citing his lackluster age-37 season -- which wasn't nearly as bad as his ERA might lead you to believe -- while disregarding the previous 18 seasons in which he logged over 4,250 high-quality innings. I hate what he's doing here with a burning passion, but in reality it's not worth the rise in my blood pressure. Chass is accountable to nobody for his Cooperstown selections, and no amount of teeth-gnashing on my part is going to change that.]

12 Comments | in

Sunday

03Jan2010

Sunday Morning Open Thread: Five Questions

Joey Matschulat |

Sunday, January 3, 2010 at 6:00 AM |

1. If the Texas Rangers win merely 81-84 games in 2010 -- the year in which the team is finally supposed to begin taking off -- and yet again miss the post-season, would that singlehandedly render the season a "failure"? If so, would such a step backwards endanger the job security of general manager Jon Daniels and (presumably) end Ron Washington's managerial reign?

2. Should the Rangers have attempted to match the Cubs' winning three-year, $15 million bid for outfielder Marlon Byrd, considering that he netted a less lucrative deal than many expected he would receive?

3. Identify an area in the Rangers' advertising/marketing/pricing game plan (e.g. better advertising campaigns, stronger game promotions, lessened ticket/parking/concession prices, etc.) which should be targeted for improvement going into the 2010 season.

4. Assuming that Texas does indeed have $5-7 million remaining in the off-season budget, which pitching route would you like to see the Rangers select: low risk, low upside in Jon Garland ($5 million), high risk, high upside in Ben Sheets ($5 million), or none of the above?

5. After Justin Smoak, who are the second- and third-best position prospects in the Rangers' farm system?

42 Comments | in

Open Thread,

Friday

01Jan2010

2010 Is Here!

David |

Friday, January 1, 2010 at 9:00 AM |

Xavier Nady rounds the bases after clubbing a two-run homer on September 15th, 2008.Happy New Year, everyone!

When the Rangers decided to initiate a full-blown rebuilding program in the summer of 2007, 2010 was the year that was targeted for fielding a legitimate contender. Thanks to the rapid development of Elvis Andrus, Julio Borbon, Neftali Feliz, and Tommy Hunter; the surprising emergence of Derek Holland; and the unexpected contributions of Scott Feldman, Darren O'Day, and Nelson Cruz, the team contended a year ahead of schedule. But realistically, the acquisition and development of talent has always pointed toward fielding a contending team from 2010 through 2015. For that reason, I am looking forward to a great year!

RANDOM NOTES

Jim Callis of Baseball America indicated in a chat yesterday that he agrees with John Manuel: The Rangers have the best group of prospects in baseball. He went on to state that he ranked Feliz No. 7, Smoak No. 16 and Perez No. 24 in his personal top 50 for the Prospect Handbook. The Rangers are doing all the right things to field a major league team that can compete for championships over the long haul ... and that really is all that a baseball fan can ask for.

In an article published yesterday, MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan suggested that the Rangers still have $5-7 million in their 2010 budget. That might be enough to snag Ben Sheets, and if he is willing to grant the team an option for 2011, he might be the best way to use those available funds.

One name that Sullivan suggested as a free agent hitter whom the Rangers might be interested in was Xavier Nady, who just recently turned 31 years old. In his last healthy season (2008), he batted .305/.357/.510 between the Pirates and Yankees. He lost most of 2009 due to Tommy John surgery. He hasn't played since April and it is unclear when he will be able to play again; however, if the Rangers' medical staff cleared him, he might be the right-handed bat the team is seeking to split time at DH and play a bit in the outfield. In his career, he's hit .307/.383/.471 against left-handed pitchers.

12 Comments | in

Thursday

31Dec2009

Thursday Morning Rangers Notes: New Year's Eve Edition

Joey Matschulat |

Thursday, December 31, 2009 at 6:00 AM |

Jim Thome blasts a three-run shot during the White Sox' home opener on April 7th, 2009.You know, I've purposely attempted to avert anything more than a passing interest in the Mike Leach-Texas Tech brouhaha, but if a few more exchanges like these end up leaking, I don't think it's a story that any college football fan is going to be able to ignore:

● One existing idea regarding the starting rotation -- an idea which I didn't think would remain in existence long enough to see the 2010 calendar year -- is that left-hander Derek Holland could, developmentally speaking, benefit from another 10-15 starts at Triple-A Oklahoma more so than if he were to pitch every fifth day in Arlington from the outset of the 2010 regular season. I don't buy into that idea, but it's out there, and it's probably also going to remain out there until Holland clearly demonstrates that he's actually much, much better than the 8-13, 6.12 ERA mark that he posted last season.

Of course, neither his win-loss record nor his ERA is remotely indicative of his true talent level; a recent article posted by FanGraphs' David Golebiewski affirms this reality, as the spread between Holland's ERA (6.12) and expected fielding-independent ERA (4.38) was the second-largest in baseball among all pitchers who logged at least 100 innings in 2009. When taken in conjunction with his penchant for both missing bats and avoiding walks and his especially high ceiling, I have a hard time believing that the Rangers can roll out five pitchers boasting a more potent blend of raw talent, upside and soon-to-be-realized results.

● ESPNDallas.com's Richard Durrett reports that the Rangers have expressed some degree of interest in free agent designated hitter Jim Thome, whose name has only been periodically mentioned -- and never directly linked, as far as I can recall -- in the context of the ballclub's persistent search for the fabled "big bat." Why only periodically, you ask? I'm no clairvoyant, but I'm going to imagine it has something to do with his age (39), his utter lack of defensive flexibility and the fact that he's lost some of that once-eminent offensive "oomph."

The thing about three-true-outcomes hitters like Thome is that you always have to wonder about when they're going to slip into the "decline" career phase and not be able to escape; in his case, a number of meaningful statistical indicators that we like to utilize in player evaluation (including BB/K, isolated power, wOBA and his plate discipline numbers) is trending in the wrong direction, which isn't necessariy a harbinger of his age-40 demise, but is rather unnerving nevertheless. Much like Vladimir Guerrero, Thome likely projects as a 1- to 1½-win improvement, but if neither possesses even a remote chance of helping out in the field, one has to wonder just how serious the Rangers really are about pursuing them.

19 Comments | in

Wednesday

30Dec2009

Rangers Prospect Prognostications: The Repeaters

David |

Wednesday, December 30, 2009 at 6:00 AM |

Marcus Lemon - Photo courtesy of Scott LucasElite prospects are more likely to skip a level than repeat one. But many successful major league players had to repeat a minor league level or two to complete their preparation for the big leagues. Matt Holliday needed two years in High-A and two years in Double-A to develop into an All-Star outfielder. Justin Morneau returned to Double-A after having spent the entire 2002 season and part of the 2001 season there.

Bobby Abreu, Adrian Gonzalez, and Kevin Youkilis spent significant parts of three seasons in Triple-A before permanently graduating to the majors. John Danks posted ERAs of 5.24 and 5.49 in his first goes at the California League and the Texas League, respectively. He repeated those leagues with much better results en route to his current job in Chicago. John Lackey had a 6.71 ERA in his first stop in Triple-A. He repeated the level the next year and posted a 2.57 ERA before being promoted to the majors.

A number of Rangers prospects struggled in 2009. Some of those who struggled are likely to be moved up to the next level out of spring training in 2010 based on developmental progress that they made in 2009. But others will be asked to repeat a level so that they can work on their games before receiving a promotion and competing at a higher level. Players who would likely benefit from repeating a level in 2010 include ...

No. 1: OF Engel Beltre | DoB: 11/01/89 | 6' 1", 169 lb.
Acquired via: Trade for RHP Eric Gagne (07/31/07)

Stuff: Legitimate five-tool player; plus defense with a poor plate approach and untapped power potential

● Prior to the 2009 season, Baseball America ranked Beltre as the seventh-best prospect in a loaded Rangers farm system. Aaron Fitt had the following to say: "Beltre's five-tool package has garnered comparisons to big leaguers from Barry Bonds to Kenny Lofton to Andruw Jones. His wiry-strong frame and quick bat easily generate above-average raw power, and his plus speed is an asset on the basepaths and in the outfield. His arm, which rates as a 55 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and his good instincts could make him a premium defender in center. He's a high-energy player and a natural leader. Beltre is aggressive in all phases and sometimes has trouble slowing the game down. He's a free swinger who must improve his patience and pitch selection. While he can punish balls out of the zone at times, he'll have to force more advanced pitchers to throw him strikes."

● Beltre showed some improvement in his ability to work a walk in 2009 (4.7 percent walk rate in 2009 vs. 1.7 percent in 2008), but everything else in his game regressed. Most troubling was his lack of power production (13 doubles, five triples, and three home runs in 357 at-bats).

● In 2009, Beltre was among the youngest players in the California League, playing as a 19-year-old in a league where the average player was 23 years old. To reclaim his previous prospect status, Beltre needs to continue improving his walk rate -- approaching the California league average of 9.0 percent would be a great start -- while also showing that he can hit for power. Although he received a short stint in the Texas League at the end of the 2009 season, the less advanced pitchers and favorable hitting conditions in the California League would be a better place for Beltre to prove to himself and others that he is starting to make good on his enormous potential.

No. 2: RHP Neil Ramirez | DoB: 05/25/89 | 6' 3", 185 lb.
Acquired via: 2007 MLB Draft, 1st Round

Stuff: Ramirez' fastball and curveball have outstanding velocity and movement and his change-up has apparently improved in his two years in the system. Improved command of all three pitches will be necessary for them to become major league quality offerings.

● Ramirez was ranked as the fourth-best prospect in the Northwest League in 2008 by Baseball America; at the time, Nathan Rode gushed about his stuff: "Ramirez attacks hitters with a 90-94 mph fastball that touches 96 [mph]and has decent life to the arm side. He has shown the ability to change speeds with his fastball, keeping hitters off balance. They can't gear up for it because his curveball is a hard, late-breaking hammer, a true plus pitch. Ramirez also has projection remaining. He's working on a changeup that showed improvement throughout the summer. He has to improve his command and control, but his pure stuff is exciting."

● Ramirez began 2009 in extended spring training and then got off to a rocky start at Low-A Hickory (9.82 ERA in 11 innings in June with nine walks and seven strikeouts). Although he was better in July and August (3.38 and 2.86 ERAs, respectively, with 28 strikeouts against 13 walks in 22 August innings), he didn't pitch enough innings to prove that he is ready for High-A Bakersfield.

● Command and consistency have been the bugaboo of many a talented pitcher and working on that part of your game is simpler if you aren't worried about an opponent hitting a pitch out of the park. Having Ramirez begin the 2010 season in Hickory where he will be age-appropriate and in a pitcher-friendly league could allow his command to catch up with his stuff and resuscitate his career.

No. 3: RHP Blake Beavan | DoB: 01/17/89 | 6' 7", 250 lb.
Acquired via: 2007 MLB Draft, 1st Round (17th overall)

Stuff: Outstanding control of 87-90 mph two-seamer; 89-92 mph four-seamer; potentially above-average change-up

● Beavan has learned to compete without overpowering stuff. Now he needs to develop better stuff with which he can be more competitive. The big right-hander had 15 starts in the Texas League as a 20-year-old, where the average batter he faced was 24 years old He averaged six innings per start and finished with an ERA of 4.01. His walk rate in the Texas League was shockingly low (1.3 BB/9); unfortunately, so was his strikeout rate (3.4 K/9). Improving his strikeout rate is a prerequisite for Beavan if he hopes to compete with the big boys.

● Beavan will likely require at least another year of development time before he is ready for major league hitters. BBTIA's own Trip Somers has suggested that a few minor tweaks to Beavan's delivery could potentially improve his pitches. Starting 2010 at Double-A Frisco will allow him to make a mechanical change or two and develop his secondary pitches against hitters who are a little closer to his age than those whom he would face if he is promoted to Triple-A Oklahoma City.

No. 4: OF Michael Bianucci | DoB: 06/26/86 | 6' 1", 215 lb.
Acquired via: 2008 MLB Draft, 8th Round

● According to my dear old Pappy, "Sometimes you're the bat and sometimes you're the ball." Bianucci spent time as both in 2009. In Hickory, he pounded opposing pitchers to the tune of .331/.401/.600 in 297 plate appearances. He also proved adept at gunning down baserunners from his spot in right field. Then Bianucci got promoted to Bakersfield and it was his turn to get slapped around, as High-A pitchers limited him to a line of .232/.289/.510 in 212 plate appearances.

● Bianucci has the best career slugging percentage of any player in the Rangers' system. Decreasing his strikeout rate below 20 percent and increasing his walk rate to 10 percent -- he struck out in 23 percent of his plate appearances in 2009 against a 7.4 percent walk rate -- would signal that Bianucci is developing into a legitimate corner outfield prospect. Proving that he can do so against High-A pitchers would seem to be a prerequisite for a promotion to Frisco.

No. 5: IF Marcus Lemon | DoB: 06/03/88 | 5' 11", 173 lb.
Acquired via: 2006 MLB Draft, 4th Round

Stuff: Left-handed hitter with good OBP skills; relatively small with average speed for middle infielder; hustles

● Lemon had a great start in Frisco last year (.324/.356/.434 in his first month), but he had a tough time with Double-A pitching after that (.251/.324/.315). As he showed in the Arizona Fall League (.343/.389/.627), Lemon can get as hot as anyone in the Rangers system. Like most young baseball players, he now needs to develop consistency.

● Lemon's walk rate the past three years (10 percent in 2007, 9 percent in 2008, 8 percent in 2009) is trending the wrong direction. Because Lemon is unlikely to ever hit for much power or play plus defense, his value to a team will depend upon his ability to get on base. Assuming he continues to strike out in roughly 15 percent of his at-bats and post a league-average BABIP, then his batting average is likely to come in around .270. To get to a .350 OBP, Lemon will need to push his walk rate to 12 percent. Improving his ability to work pitch counts, foul off tough pitches, and draw walks will be critical for Lemon's continuing development.

● Lemon has advanced through the Rangers system at a rate of one level per season and he has been three years younger than his average opponent every year. He will begin the 2010 season as a 21-year-old. That is young for Double-A (average age of 24 years) and ridiculously young for Triple-A (average age of 26-plus years). Since Lemon needs to hone his plate approach and work on his defense at multiple positions, it would seem wise to allow him to do so without the stress of having to learn a new league.

10 Comments | in

Monday

28Dec2009

On The Jon Garland-To-Texas Idea

Joey Matschulat |

Monday, December 28, 2009 at 7:19 AM |

Jon Garland delivers a first-inning pitch against the Mets on Sunday, August 2nd.After a four-day stretch as exciting as that which comprised baseball's winter meetings, it's only natural that the late-December cessation in hot stove activity would create some restlessness -- the sort of restlessness that can trigger significant discussion around even the vaguest of rumors, such as the one relayed by the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo which holds that Texas is the "early leader" for the services of free agent right-hander Jon Garland.

It's an odd rumor on the surface, one that doesn't at all conform with the notion that general manager Jon Daniels is actively building towards a higher-strikeout, higher-upside starting rotation with less emphasis placed on the pitch-to-contact philosophy; indeed, Garland is the antithesis of a strikeout pitcher, with remarkably -- and consistently -- low strikeout rates balanced by his ground ball-inducing abilities and above-average control. In no way, shape or form does Garland resemble the sort of pitcher that I thought the Rangers would be targeting at this stage in the off-season. And therein lies the intrigue.

If you operate off the assumption that Garland will ultimately bank $4-5 million during the course of a one-year contract (and given his $7.5 million salary with the Diamondbacks/Dodgers in 2009, it's entirely possible that he'll command an even greater sum), understand that Garland is likely not an improvement over any prospective Rangers starting pitcher on a per-inning basis. No, the real motivation behind such a gambit concerns pitching depth -- something which the Rangers do actually possess, but not in overabundance. And this is where popular opinion begins to split.

Every major league team has limited resources (e.g. money, roster spots and outs) at its disposal with which it can generate wins above replacement level; this reality explains why a pair of three-win players are not commensurate in value with a single six-win player, since the latter will generally create and/or save as many runs in just half as many plate appearances and/or innings. In other words, the more value you can compress into a single player/roster spot, the better off you're going to be. Additionally, acquiring a three-win player in order to supplant a two-win player obviously isn't going to have the same effect as a three-win player supplanting a zero-win (replacement level) player.

Keeping these tenets of marginal value in mind, one could reasonably conclude that signing Garland simply wouldn't make much sense for Texas. Even if you characterize, say, Brandon McCarthy as somebody who's good for a maximum of 100 innings, the difference in value between (a) 100 innings from McCarthy and 100 innings from the No. 6-9 starters and (b) 200 innings of Garland is probably rather underwhelming. In that sense, throwing a substantial percentage of the ballclub's remaining resources at a pitcher offering a probable one-win improvement (if that) doesn't seem terribly appealing, and might well be downright inefficient.

And yet, there's some degree of logic in this approach to roster construction. Garland's fairly well-equipped to handle this ballpark and pitch in front of this defense by virtue of his grounder-inducing tendencies, and is about the closest thing to a true low-risk, low-variance pitcher currently going in the league, acting as a potential hedge against riskier arms such as Rich Harden. Obtaining Garland could be about securing some additional peace of mind; it could also be about divesting some of the back-end pitching talent in exchange for the mythical right-handed bat, in which case the hypothetical signing of Garland couldn't really be evaluated in isolation.

Frankly, it's a little disturbing that I've resorted to analyzing a single nebulous rumor in paragraph form, but that's the great thing about the hot stove season -- the opportunity to drill down into the thought processes behind transactions that may or may not ever happen and try to figure out what manuever your favorite team is plotting next.

33 Comments | in

Hot Stove Season,

Sunday

27Dec2009

Sunday Morning Open Thread: Five Questions

Joey Matschulat |

Sunday, December 27, 2009 at 6:00 AM |

1. Taking into account all of the off-season roster moves that have been completed to date, order the AL West teams -- as currently composed -- from best to worst on a pure talent basis.

2. Whom would you include on your hypothetical 2010 Hall of Fame ballot? Click here for a quick rundown of the most viable/intriguing names in this year's mix, including Bert Blyleven, Roberto Alomar, Tim Raines, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez and Mark McGwire.

3. In what way should Neftali Feliz be employed in 2010 so that the multitude of relevant factors are properly balanced, including (a) his health, (b) his development and (c) the Rangers' pitching needs? In other words, at what level should he begin his sophomore campaign, and in what role?

4. Are there any prominent market inefficiencies left (e.g. on-base percentage in the late-90s; defense in the mid-00s), and if so, are the Rangers currently in any sort of position to exploit them?

5. With still-prospective owner Chuck Greenberg making noise about installing a massive new video board at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, are there any other blatantly obvious areas for improvement that could also be addressed relatively quickly once Greenberg and company formally set up shop?

[And your obligatory Sunday morning trade rumor: According to the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo, Texas has emerged as the "early front-runner" to acquire the services of free agent right-hander Jon Garland. More on this a little later.]

23 Comments | in

Open Thread,