Robbie Ross - Photo courtesy of Jason ParksJohn Manuel and Jim Callis of Baseball America (BA) have both revealed -- here and here, respectively -- that they have ranked the Rangers' minor league system as the best in baseball for the second year in a row. With Justin Smoak and Neftali Feliz expected to graduate, the Texas Rangers will need a few players to move into BA's Top 100 Prospects list in the coming year if the organization is to continue its run of prospect dominance.
Assuming they are healthy and retain their prospect status, Martin Perez and Tanner Scheppers are likely to headline the Rangers' candidates for inclusion in BA's Top 100 Prospects list for 2011. Given the quality of the Rangers system, it seems likely that one or more players will step forward in 2010 and join the list of elite prospects.
To get a sense of who is most likely to become a Top 100 prospect, it is worth considering the makeup of previous BA Top 100 Prospects lists. The 2009 list included 41 players who were ranked among the Top 100 prospects in 2008. Three of the 59 new players in 2009 had made the 2007 list but been dropped from the 2008 list due to injury or ineffectiveness (Daniel Bard, Jeff Samardzija and Sean West). The 56 remaining players who made their Top 100 debuts in 2009 were:
● 19 teenaged prospects who proved themselves in their full-season league debuts;
● 17 prospects in their early-20s who had breakout seasons in the upper minors;
● 15 draft picks from 2008 (some of whom played in 2008, many of whom did not); and
● 5 international free agents
The six leading candidates from the Rangers' system who are most likely to debut as Top 100 prospects in 2011 are:
No. 1: RHP Michael Main | DoB: 12/14/88 | 6′ 1″, 170 lb.
Acquired via: 2007 MLB Draft, 1st Round (24th overall)
Stuff: Low-to-mid-90s fastball; tight curveball; potentially above-average change-up

Although Main has not yet been included in a BA Top 100 list, the publication's writers have certainly taken notice:
● Aaron Fitt rated Main the sixth-best prospect in the Rangers' system in 2008, writing that "Main evokes Bret Saberhagen for his slight build, plus-plus arm strength, intelligence and determination. He pitches with minimal effort at 92-97 mph with a lively fastball, and he did a much better job keeping the pitch down in the zone in 2007 than he did in high school in 2006.”
● Despite an injury-shortened 2008 season and breakouts from multiple Rangers prospects, Fitt rated Main the eighth-best prospect in the system in 2009, writing that "when the Rangers introduced Main to an over-the-head windup to help generate more momentum, his velocity spiked to 92-96 mph in instructional league. He commands his fastball to both halves of the plate, and his tight downer curveball could give him a second plus offering in the future. Main's electric arm could make him a frontline starter after a few years of development.”
● Main's prospect status will depend on how well he rebounds from two seasons of relative inactivity. Main showed that he could be effective in the California League when he had his strength and the velocity on his fastball. If he is assigned to High-A Bakersfield to begin 2010, then a dominant month or two (ala Michael Kirkman, circa 2009) could earn him a promotion to the Texas League where he can show that he is healthy and worthy of elite prospect status.
● Assuming he pitches 50 or more innings in the Texas League in 2010, he will likely need a pitching line similar to Kyle Drabek's 2009 Double-A numbers (3.64 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.6 H/9) to warrant a spot on BA's Top 100 list. If he is healthy, Main clearly has the ability to hit those numbers.
No. 2: New Draft Picks
With four picks among the top 50 in the 2010 MLB draft (including No. 15 and No. 22) and a recent history of selecting the best player available, it appears possible and perhaps even likely that the Rangers will acquire a Top 100 candidate via the 2010 major league draft.
No. 3: C Tomas Telis | DoB: 06/18/91 | 5′ 8″, 175 lb.
Acquired via: International free agency (2007)
Stuff: Switch-hitter with excellent bat control, a line drive stroke, and developing power; former shortstop is athletic but still raw as a catcher

● Baseball America's Bill Mitchell is aware of Telis after ranking him as the No. 16 prospect in the Arizona Rookie League, as well as writing this: "Telis, who hit .322 in his first season in the United States, makes consistent contact and gets good carry on the ball. He won't be a big power hitter, but he could hit 15-20 homers per years once he learns that a few more strikeouts will be acceptable as long as he drives the ball. He's still very raw as a catcher and needs to dedicate himself to improving his defense."
● Telis will likely play 2010 as one of the youngest players in a full-season league. The South Atlantic League is not particularly friendly to hitters, though five hitters who played in the SAL in 2010 are likely to be on BA's Top 100 list in 2010.
● Catcher Derek Norris locked up a Top 100 spot with a .286/.413/.513 line in the SAL as a 20-year-old in 2009. Telis likely needs to approach what Norris did on offense and show progress with his defense to ensure a spot on BA's Top 100 list in 2011. For his career, Telis has more extra base hits (37) than strikeouts (35), so it seems entirely possible that he will be able to equal or exceed Norris' batting average and slugging percentage. He will need to approach the 9.0 percent walk rate that he had as a 17-year-old in the Dominican Summer League to get close to a .400 OBP. Given his career line and how he finished 2010, Telis seems capable of posting a .310/.375/.500 line in 2010, which would likely be enough to merit consideration in the back half of BA's list.
No. 4: LHP Robbie Ross | DoB: 06/24/89 | 6' 0", 170 lb.
Acquired via: 2008 MLB Draft, 2nd Round (57th overall)
Stuff: Low-90s fastball; above-average slider and change-up

● BA knows Robbie Ross, rating him as the best pitcher and seventh-best prospect in the Northwest League. Conor Glassey wrote, "Ross touched 93-94 mph early in the summer before beginning to tire, and he sat at 90-92 [mph] for much of the year. He keeps his fastball down and it has good run, resulting in a 3.2 groundout/airout ratio, and he also can throw it by hitters up in the zone. He hides the ball well and is especially tough on lefthanders."
● Ross has what BA likes to see in an elite pitching prospect -- outstanding command of two potentially plus pitches (fastball and slider) and at least an average third pitch (change-up). Ross's chances of becoming a Top 100 prospect will likely depend upon where he pitches in 2010. If he spends significant time at Low-A Hickory, then Ross could dominate the SAL and post the gaudy numbers that get noticed. Despite possessing the command and power arsenal that allow pitchers to be effective in the California League, it seems less likely that he would attain Top 100 status if he pitches most of 2010 in Bakersfield.
● Three left-handed starters who pitched 2009 as 20-year-olds in Low-A leagues (Montgomery, Crosby, and Moore) appear likely to make BA's Top 100 list in 2010. Their combined pitching line in Low-A was 2.48 ERA, 10.4 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, and 6.3 H/9. As noted in the table above, Ross' 2009 numbers were pretty close to that. Assuming Ross can recapture and maintain the stuff that he had in the first half of 2009 when his strikeout rate was 10.8 K/9, it seems likely that he can achieve the target numbers of this year's lower-level lefties.
● "Electric fastball." "Plus slider." "Short, competitive lefty." How long will it take for a scout or writer to dial up the Scott Kazmir comp if Ross gets off to a strong start in 2010?
No. 5: RHP Danny Gutierrez | DoB: 03/08/87 | 6′ 1″, 180 lb.
Acquired via: Trade for C Manuel Pina, OF Tim Smith (09/03/09)
Stuff: Low-to-mid-90s fastball; 12-to-6 curveball; developing change-up

● BA's J.J. Cooper has noticed Gutierrez, rating him the seventh-best prospect in the Royals system in 2009 while having the following to say: "Gutierrez pounds the lower part of the strike zone with his fastball, generating plenty of grounders. He pitched at 88-92 mph early in the season but was working at 90-95 with good life at the end of the year. He has power and 12-to-6 break on a curveball that buries itself just as it reaches the plate. He also shows some feel for a changeup. He can locate his pitches to all four quadrants of the strike zone."
● Like the other pitchers in this article, Gutierrez has excellent command of two above-average to plus pitches (fastball and curveball). He needs to show a consistent change-up to convince BA and others that he can be a quality major league starting pitcher.
● Like Main, Gutierrez first needs to prove that he is healthy and capable of pitching a full season before he can be recognized as a Top 100 prospect. He will be 23 years old for the 2010 season and seems likely to begin the year in AA-bal. Esmil Rogers and Junichi Tazawa might sneak into BA's 2010 Top 100 list after pitching as 24 and 23 year olds, respectively, in AA-ball in 2009. The average Double-A pitching line for the two (2.52 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and 7.8 H/9) is likely the minimum that it would take for Gutierrez to be named a Top 100 prospect following 2010.
No. 6: OF Miguel Velazquez | DoB: 05/15/88 | 6' 2", 205 lb.
Acquired via: 2006 MLB Draft, 19th Round (568th overall)
Stuff: Five-tool talent with outstanding bat speed and a strong arm

● Baseball America loves athletes who are productive in full-season leagues. Michael Saunders, Dominic Brown, and Alcides Escobar debuted on the 2009 Top 100 list after they showed significant progress in turning their tools into skills. Engel Beltre and Miguel Velazquez could both vault onto BA's Top 100 list with outstanding 2010 seasons. Given Velazquez's superior plate approach and the likelihood that he will spend a significant portion of 2010 in the California League, I think that he is the more likely prospect to turn in an attention-grabbing season.
● BA's Conor Glassey has already taken notice of Velazquez, rating him the 10th-best prospect in the Northwest League following the 2009 season while having the following to say: "Velzaquez showed five-tool potential. Pitchers pounded him with breaking balls, but he has a good approach and his above-average bat speed produces hard line drives and power to all fields. He has good speed, though he needs to work on his jumps on the bases and in right field, and a strong, accurate arm."
● Assuming Velasquez spends the 2010 season in Bakersfield, he will likely need to approach the 2009 numbers posted by Giants outfield prospect Thomas Neal (.337/.431/.579) to warrant a spot on the 2011 Top 100 list. The OBP component might be a bit of a stretch, but the batting average and slugging components both appear attainable given Velazquez's prior work.