With a sellout crowd of 50,724 rabid fans at Coors Field on Saturday night, the Colorado Rockies clinched their first-ever trip to the NLCS with a crisp 2-1 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies.
As much of a part in the Rockies' triumph as anything was their brilliance on the mound, with the unlikely quartet of Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Herges, Brian Fuentes and Manny Corpas combining to allow just one run on three hits and four walks on the night.
Meanwhile, the spark plug of Colorado's miracle rally in their one game playoff with San Diego - Kaz Matsui - delivered an RBI triple to give Colorado the lead in the bottom of the 5th inning.
And with two outs and nobody on in the bottom of the 8th inning, the Rockies managed to string together three consecutive singles against former Angels left-hander J.C. Romero, culminating in a game-winning RBI base hit from the bat of pinch hitter Jeff Baker.
If you're not on the Colorado Rockies bandwagon yet, there's still time to hop aboard. The impossible dream lives.
As I mentioned early Friday morning, Baseball Think Factory's Dan Szymborski has released his 2008 ZiPS projections for the Texas Rangers. Dan's work with ZiPS is highly respected throughout the internet baseball community, and for good reason; his projections are comprehensive, easy to understand and accurate.
But just how accurate?
Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus did a brief analysis of eight popular projection systems last Thursday, illustrating that ZiPS was second only to PECOTA in terms of accuracy in forecasting league-wide offensive production, with OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) being Silver's metric of choice.
However, I'd like to take that a step further: using Dan's 2007 ZiPS projections as a benchmark, I've done a head-to-head comparison of both the predicted and actual offensive numbers compiled by Texas hitters in 2007. The only caveat: they had to receive at least 150 at-bats in a Rangers uniform.
That includes Kenny Lofton (317 AB), Mark Teixeira (286 AB) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (167 AB), guys who played a sizable role in shaping the offense at one time or another during the season. Concurrently, that 150 AB cutoff serves to exclude the likes of David Murphy (105 AB), Victor Diaz (104 AB), and Adam Melhuse (94 AB) from the equation, with reduced sample sizes and lesser offensive roles deflating their overall importance.
In the interest of completeness, I'm using each player's entire body of work in my evaluations; for example, Jarrod Saltalamacchia's and Mark Teixeira's NL numbers are included in the mix. And one last note - the number in parenthesis next to each player's name denotes the number of OPS percentage points that particular Ranger outperformed (or underperformed) his 2007 ZiPS projection.
Without further ado, here are the results:
Hank Blalock (+104)
Projected: 627 AB, .273/.336/.461, 90 R, 33 2B, 27 HR, 112 RBI
Actual: 208 AB, .293/.358/.543, 32 R, 16 2B, 10 HR, 33 RBI
Notes: Though Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery on Blalock's right shoulder cost the Rangers' starting third baseman over three months, Hank did hit very well when he was actually healthy. But was his strong (albeit short) '07 campaign the product of sustained adjustments at the plate, or simply a mirage?
Jason Botts (-161)
Projected: 419 AB, .260/.338/.484, 71 R, 27 2B, 21 HR, 78 RBI
Actual: 167 AB, .240/.326/.335, 19 R, 8 2B, 2 HR, 14 RBI
Notes: Hit a ridiculous .320/.436/.545 with 13 HR in 369 AB at Triple-A Oklahoma, but struggled in his first lengthy big league audition. Botts required an extended adjustment period at each of his stops in the minor leagues before settling in, but he may have to further shorten his powerful swing if he's going to experience prolonged success in the majors.
Marlon Byrd (+95)
Projected: 386 AB, .251/.323/.396, 48 R, 22 2B, 10 HR, 49 RBI
Actual: 414 AB, .307/.355/.459, 60 R, 17 2B, 10 HR, 70 RBI
Notes: Perhaps the Rangers' best story of '07, Byrd was promoted from Oklahoma in late May - and never looked back. He slumped in August, but a strong September (.313/.352/.490) has all but guaranteed Marlon at least 350 to 400 AB in '08.
Frank Catalanotto (-3)
Projected: 388 AB, .291/.364/.420, 48 R, 31 2B, 5 HR, 52 RBI
Actual: 331 AB, .260/.337/.444, 52 R, 20 2B, 11 HR, 44 RBI
Notes: Batted just .140/.234/.333 through April 29th, before being sidelined for nearly a month with right biceps tendinitis. Frank hit a solid .285/.358/.467 with 9 HR in 274 AB following his return on May 21st, which points to his April struggles being the product of his early season injury. Regardless of which position Catalanotto plays at in '08, he should continue to get regular AB against RHP.
Nelson Cruz (-129)
Projected: 413 AB, .266/.335/.465, 59 R, 22 2B, 20 HR, 70 RBI
Actual: 307 AB, .235/.287/.384, 35 R, 15 2B, 9 HR, 34 RBI
Notes: Good grief. Cruz opened up 2007 as the Rangers' starting right fielder, but a horrific .188/.245/.306 line in 144 AB earned him a demotion to AAA. After hitting .352/.428/.698 with 15 HR in 162 AB, Cruz was recalled on July 28th, and quickly made his presence felt, jacking three home runs in his first three games back.
Unfortunately, the party had to end sometime. Cruz ended up batting just .276/.324/.454 overall in his final 163 AB stint of the season. Nelson acquired a new, more open batting stance during his duration in the minors, but he remains extremely vulnerable to major league quality breaking pitches, raising huge questions as to whether or not he can ever carve out a regular job in the big leagues.
With the emergence of David Murphy, Marlon Byrd and others, Cruz is running out of time and opportunities.
Jerry Hairston Jr. (-170)
Projected: 333 AB, .267/.336/.372, 44 R, 22 2B, 3 HR, 31 RBI
Actual: 159 AB, .189/.249/.289, 22 R, 7 2B, 3 HR, 16 RBI
Notes: Injured himself "fooling around" before stretching on Opening Night at Anaheim back in early April, forcing him to change his swing mechanics and contributing to his miserable -11.8 VORP season, which was good for 9th worst in baseball among hitters. Not that he was ever very good, anyway.
Ian Kinsler (+32)
Projected: 458 AB, .264/.325/.439, 77 R, 27 2B, 17 HR, 69 RBI
Actual: 483 AB, .263/.355/.441, 96 R, 22 2B, 20 HR, 61 RBI
Notes: Kinsler practically carried the entire offense through April by himself, hitting .298/.375/.667 with 9 HR during a rough 10-16 month in the standings. A terrible .495 OPS in May dragged down the rest of his season totals, but he rebounded nicely the rest of the way. Going 23 for 25 on the basepaths ain't bad, either.
Gerald Laird (-134)
Projected: 256 AB, .270/.320/.441, 46 R, 15 2B, 9 HR, 33 RBI
Actual: 407 AB, .224/.278/.349, 48 R, 18 2B, 9 HR, 47 RBI
Notes: With Rod Barajas and Buck Showalter finally out of his hair, and with the starting catcher's job secure in his grasp, Laird seemed primed to finally break out in 2007. Instead, he went backwards in nearly every offensive category - and even struggled to hit LHP, which he had historically torched.
With the mid-season acquisition of Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and the duo of Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez coming through the minor league pipeline, Laird's long-term future in Texas is in serious doubt. But hey, he can drop down a mean bunt single.
Kenny Lofton (+64)
Projected: 332 AB, .292/.350/.367, 77 R, 12 2B, 1 HR, 40 RBI
Actual: 490 AB, .296/.367/.414, 86 R, 25 2B, 7 HR, 38 RBI
Notes: The Rangers' 40-year-old free agent acquisition hit very well during his 317 AB stint with Texas, going .303/.380/.438 at the plate with 7 HR and 23 steals. Lofton was dealt to the Indians in late July for the aforementioned Max Ramirez, and struggled to relive his former Cleveland glory days, batting just .283/.344/.370 the rest of the way while playing mostly left field. Thumbs up, JD.
Travis Metcalf (+158)
Projected: 459 AB, .211/.262/.322, 49 R, 20 2B, 9 HR, 42 RBI
Actual: 161 AB, .255/.307/.435, 25 R, 12 2B, 5 HR, 21 RBI
Notes: With Blalock absent from the lineup for several months, Metcalf earned a mid-season promotion from Double-A Frisco; I suppose you could say he made the most of his opportunity. Travis provided solid defense and better than expected offense at the hot corner. He's may not be ready yet, but he definitely showed the organization something in '07.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia (0)
Projected: 368 AB, .242/.322/.410, 49 R, 21 2B, 13 HR, 45 RBI
Actual: 308 AB, .266/.310/.422, 39 R, 13 2B, 11 HR, 33 RBI
Notes: ZiPS sorta nailed his OPS, didn't it? The real prize of the Mark Teixeira deal, Saltalamacchia hit .251/.290/.431 with 7 HR in his first 161 AB with Texas. Jarrod's sweet swing, which has drawn comparisons to Rafael Palmeiro's stroke, could eventually make him a centerpiece in the Rangers offense, and possibly one of the league's premier catchers within a few years - if his defense allows him to stay behind the plate, that is.
Sammy Sosa (+75)
Projected: 342 AB, .225/.306/.398, 34 R, 14 2B, 15 HR, 51 RBI
Actual: 412 AB, .252/.311/.468, 53 R, 24 2B, 21 HR, 92 RBI
Notes: Is there really anything else to be said about Sammy at this point?
Mark Teixeira (+49)
Projected: 614 AB, .287/.373/.541, 105 R, 40 2B, 38 HR, 130 RBI
Actual: 494 AB, .306/.400/.563, 86 R, 33 2B, 30 HR, 105 RBI
Notes: Hit .297/.397/.524 with 13 HR in 286 AB for Texas, but had his final weeks in Arlington marred by a month-long stay on the disabled list, as well as a rather nasty public fallout with management and ownership. Promptly put up a 1.019 OPS with a whopping 17 HR in just 208 AB in his two months with Atlanta, but the Braves missed the playoffs - and the odds of GM John Schuerholz resigning him before he hits free agency after '08 are virtually nil.
Ramon Vazquez (+9)
Projected: 205 AB, .224/.318/.346, 29 R, 11 2B, 4 HR, 25 RBI
Actual: 300 AB, .230/.300/.373, 42 R, 13 2B, 8 HR, 28 RBI
Notes: Vazquez was a surprisingly decent role player for the Rangers, but slumped especially hard in September (.170/.228/.331). Nonetheless, he'll likely head into '08 with an inside track for the utility infielder job.
Brad Wilkerson (-27)
Projected: 483 AB, .251/.353/.460, 85 R, 35 2B, 20 HR, 62 RBI
Actual: 338 AB, .234/.319/.467, 54 R, 17 2B, 20 HR, 62 RBI
Notes: The bane of my existence.
Michael Young (-30)
Projected: 685 AB, .307/.353/.461, 102 R, 44 2B, 18 HR, 101 RBI
Actual: 639 AB, .315/.366/.418, 80 R, 37 2B, 9 HR, 94 RBI
Notes: Hit just .192/.211/.308 in 120 AB through May 3rd, but .342/.399/.443 in 519 AB from that point onward. Although Young was a very good offensive shortstop for 80% of the season, his drop in power (isolated power of .145 in '06, compared to just .101 in '07) is rather disturbing. Needless to say, Texas will need more from their appointed "face of the franchise" in 2008.
As you can see, ZiPS's forecast of the Rangers' 2007 offense came reasonably close to reality. Of course, this brings us back to Szymborski's 2008 ZiPS projections - and suffice it to say, they're not exactly pretty.
Among position players, only Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Marlon Byrd and Jarrod Saltalamacchia figure to be better than league average offensively at their respective positions. And while Saltalamacchia will probably get the lion's share of the starts behind the plate, the above scenario requires making the assumption that Marlon Byrd will be the Rangers' starting center fielder in 2008. Given the club's interest in Torii Hunter, that's not looking too likely.
But on the plus side, ZiPS does love itself some Taylor Teagarden:
Teagarden's a pretty interesting player now that he's recovered from Tommy John surgery. The team's going to continue to work on getting his arm back to where it used to be and sort out the catching situation in the next year or so.
[...]
Teagarden doesn't project to be an above-average DH-type this year, but I have to agree with ZiPS here regarding his power potential. This was essentially Teagarden's first full professional season, for all intents and purposes. The Rangers really need to promote Teagarden aggressively in 2008 and not leave him to beat up younger pitchers - given their situation, it'd be nice for the team to get an idea what they have in him going into 2009.
While there are some definite bright spots to be found in this Texas offense as we progress towards next year, the lack of a true power bat is going to stand out in a big way - especially over a full 162 game schedule. Short of finding a way to add an Adam Dunn-like presence to the middle of the order, it appears that Texas will once again be facing an uphill battle to cobble together a league average offense in 2008.
And with the current state of the pitching staff, that can only spell trouble.
Finally, here's two coaching staff related notes to take us out: first, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes the following on current Rangers third base coach, Don Wakamatsu:
A strong bet to be the next bench coach: Rangers third-base coach Don Wakamatsu, a Hayward native who is a longtime friend of [Bob] Geren's. Wakamatsu was offered the job last year after he had been replaced by Art Howe as the Texas bench coach, but Wakamatsu was not ready to move his family then. If the A's hire Wakamatsu, there is an excellent chance that Texas manager Ron Washington would add [Brad] Fischer to the Rangers' staff.
Slusser mentions earlier in the article that Fischer, who had been part of the A's organization for 29 seasons, is widely respected among baseball circles. I admittedly have no inside knowledge of the situation in the Rangers clubhouse, but I've always felt that Wakamatsu's harbored some feelings of resentment towards Washington, particularly given the circumstances that unfolded during last winter's managerial search.
Keeping all that in mind, I can't say it would come as a big surprise to me if Slusser's prediction came true, and Fischer was indeed added to Ron Washington's coaching staff at some point this off-season. As for Wakamatsu, he'll probably skip town the first chance he gets.
And if Don Juan's looking for an alternative destination to Oakland, Paul Meyer of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette raises the possibility of his former partner in crime snagging the recently vacated managerial spot in the Steel City:
Here is perhaps a long-shot candidate to manage the Pirates: Buck Showalter, 51, is a senior adviser to Cleveland Indians general manager Mark Shapiro, for whom Huntington was a special assistant.
[...]
Showalter has an out-clause in his contract, which he can trigger if he has a chance at a manager's job.
I sure hope the Pirates know how to play like their hair is on fire.