Don't ask me why it took over a week to complete this. I'm not entirely sure myself.
At long last, I've finished Part II of my Rangers ZiPS projection analysis (Part I is available here, if you missed it the first time around).
If you're not familiar with how this drill works, allow me to elaborate: I've taken Dan Szymborski's 2007 ZiPS projections for the Texas Rangers, and have conducted a head-to-head comparison between those projections and the actual numbers compiled by Texas pitching in 2007.
The lone caveat in play here is that the pitcher in question must have thrown at least 30 innings in a Rangers uniform. That includes borderline cases such as Edinson Volquez (34 IP), Akinori Otsuka (32.1 IP) and Eric Gagne (33.1 IP), but excludes the likes of A.J. Murray (28 IP) and Luis Mendoza (16 IP).
And just like last time, I'm taking each player's entire body of work into consideration: for instance, Ron Mahay's numbers with the Braves are included in the mix. Additionally, I've removed wins and losses from the equation, since those statistics are largely dependent on the ability of the players surrounding a given pitcher, rather than his actual skill level on the mound.
One final note worth mentioning is straight from Dan's projection pages, which serves as a disclaimer concerning some of the fringe guys on this list like Scott Feldman and John Rheinecker:
ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.
Without further ado, here are the results:
Joaquin Benoit (-1.44 ERA, -.21 WHIP)
Projected: 84 IP, 4.29 ERA, 76 H, 9 HR, 40 BB, 79 K, 1.38 WHIP
Actual: 82 IP, 2.85 ERA, 68 H, 6 HR, 28 BB, 87 K, 1.17 WHIP
Notes: Throughout his career, Joaquin had been widely known for his electric stuff on the mound - and his inability to convert that stuff into quality results. But with a breakout '07 campaign in the Rangers bullpen, Benoit may finally be on the verge of establishing himself as one of baseball's best setup men.
Willie Eyre (-.11 ERA, +.11 WHIP)
Projected: 94 IP, 5.27 ERA, 104 H, 13 HR, 40 BB, 56 K, 1.53 WHIP
Actual: 68 IP, 5.16 ERA, 78 H, 8 HR, 32 BB, 42 K, 1.62 WHIP
Notes: Signed as a minor league free agent last winter, Willie proved to be a fairly valuable piece out of the Rangers bullpen during the first half of '07; he put up a solid 3.64 ERA in 47 IP before the All-Star break. But the wheels fell off for Eyre shortly thereafter, culminating in Tommy John surgery for the 29-year-old right-hander on August 27th. He'll likely remain Rangers property through '08, but don't look for him to retake the mound until sometime in '09.
Scott Feldman (+1.38 ERA, +.56 WHIP)
Projected: 80 IP, 4.39 ERA, 83 H, 9 HR, 28 BB, 51 K, 1.39 WHIP
Actual: 39 IP, 5.77 ERA, 44 H, 3 HR, 32 BB, 19 K, 1.95 WHIP
Notes: It was an incredibly up-and-down season for "Scooter" Feldman - literally. The 24-year-old right-hander was optioned to Triple-A Oklahoma (and subsequently recalled) five times during the regular season, and didn't exactly dominate with the Redhawks either (4.50 ERA in 30 IP).
A late-season adjustment to his delivery changed his pitching motion from sidearm to three-quarters, allowing him to better utilize his arsenal of pitches. Like many pitchers on this staff, Feldman could go one of two ways - his newly enhanced delivery could springboard him to a big '08 campaign, or completely screw him up mechanically and further contribute to his struggles.
Frankie Francisco (+.81 ERA, +.26 WHIP)
Projected: 53 IP, 3.74 ERA, 42 H, 6 HR, 29 BB, 63 K, 1.34 WHIP
Actual: 59.1 IP, 4.55 ERA, 57 H, 3 HR, 38 BB, 49 K, 1.60 WHIP
Notes: Pitching in his first full season since undergoing Tommy John surgery in '05, Frankie showed flashes of the talent that made him such a dangerous late inning weapon during the Rangers' magic '04 run. Unfortunately, his command has yet to return - but if he stays on the road to recovery, Francisco could soon re-establish himself as a dominant power arm out of the Texas bullpen.
Kason Gabbard (-.75 ERA, -.23 WHIP)
Projected: 135 IP, 5.40 ERA, 146 H, 17 HR, 66 BB, 84 K, 1.57 WHIP
Actual: 81.1 IP, 4.65 ERA, 68 H, 8 HR, 41 BB, 55 K, 1.34 WHIP
Notes: Acquired in the July 31st Eric Gagne trade, Gabbard put up a 3.73 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP in 41 IP for the Red Sox in '07 - and a 5.58 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 40.1 IP thereafter. Four arm surgeries have slowed the southpaw's progress, and he'll need to further improve his off-speed stuff and command to compensate for his mediocre mid to high 80's fastball. Don't be surprised if he's out of the rotation by mid-season for one reason or another.
Eric Gagne (+1.20 ERA, +.30 WHIP)
Projected: 62 IP, 2.61 ERA, 50 H, 5 HR, 15 BB, 74 K, 1.05 WHIP
Actual: 52 IP, 3.81 ERA, 49 H, 3 HR, 21 BB, 51 K, 1.35 WHIP
Notes: Brilliant in Texas, terrible in Boston. Nicely done, JD.
Wes Littleton (-.60 ERA, -.09 WHIP)
Projected: 88 IP, 4.91 ERA, 95 H, 15 HR, 30 BB, 55 K, 1.42 WHIP
Actual: 48 IP, 4.31 ERA, 48 H, 6 HR, 16 BB, 24 K, 1.33 WHIP
Notes: After a monster '06 campaign split between Double-A Frisco (0.66 ERA in 27.1 IP), Oklahoma (2.16 ERA in 16.2 IP) and Texas (1.73 ERA in 36.1 IP), I suppose we were due for a bit of a letdown.
Littleton's funky sidearm delivery and solid repertoire of pitches should make him a cheap and attractive option out of the bullpen over the next few years - at the same time, he seems like the perfect "throw-in" player for the Rangers to add to a potential blockbuster trade, should the opportunity to pull one off present itself this winter. Stay tuned.
Kameron Loe (+.26 ERA, +.12 WHIP)
Projected: 136 IP, 5.10 ERA, 153 H, 20 HR, 48 BB, 80 K, 1.48 WHIP
Actual: 136 IP, 5.36 ERA, 162 H, 13 HR, 56 BB, 78 K, 1.60 WHIP
Notes: We all know the story by now: after recording a 7.40 ERA through June 7th, the Rangers optioned Kameron to Triple-A Oklahoma. Redhawks pitching coach Andy Hawkins made a slight adjustment to Loe's arm angle, and in one day appeared to have fixed what Rangers pitching coach Mark Connor wasn't able to fix in several months.
Loe was recalled on June 14th in place of the injured Brandon McCarthy, and fired eight brilliant shutout innings in Pittsburgh. Kameron put together four more excellent starts, but his struggles began to return (though to a lesser degree than earlier in the season), and his year was ended in early September by elbow soreness.
After his latest rather unsuccessful tour of duty in the rotation, it's probable that Loe's long-term future now lies in the bullpen as a middle/long reliever. With younger, higher upside arms like Eric Hurley and company flying down the pipeline, Kameron's chances of ever becoming a regular big league starter now seem remote at best.
Ron Mahay (-1.74 ERA, -.10 WHIP)
Projected: 63 IP, 4.29 ERA, 63 H, 7 HR, 27 BB, 55 K, 1.43 WHIP
Actual: 67 IP, 2.55 ERA, 52 H, 4 HR, 37 BB, 55 K, 1.33 WHIP
Notes: Thanks for 3 1/2 solid years of left-handed relief, I guess.
Brandon McCarthy (+.09 ERA, +.28 WHIP)
Projected: 143 IP, 4.78 ERA, 145 H, 25 HR, 38 BB, 118 K, 1.28 WHIP
Actual: 101.2 IP, 4.87 ERA, 111 H, 9 HR, 48 BB, 59 K, 1.56 WHIP
Notes: Although his statistical ledger may not show it, the future still appears bright for "the guy that the Rangers traded John Danks for." That being said, he's going to have to improve his stamina and pitch conservation significantly if he hopes to someday become a front-line starter - McCarthy failed to go deeper than six innings during any of the 22 starts he made in '07.
I suppose it would also help if the organization didn't allow him to pitch with shoulder pain for an extended period of time without having an MRI exam performed. Good grief.
Kevin Millwood (+.97 ERA, +.28 WHIP)
Projected: 189 IP, 4.19 ERA, 198 H, 23 HR, 51 BB, 137 K, 1.32 WHIP
Actual: 172.2 IP, 5.16 ERA, 213 H, 19 HR, 67 BB, 123 K, 1.60 WHIP
Notes: If the Rangers are thinking about having any type of playoff aspirations in '08, they're going to need more from their appointed "ace." Much, much more.
Akinori Otsuka (-.58 ERA, -.14 WHIP)
Projected: 67 IP, 3.09 ERA, 61 H, 5 HR, 21 BB, 60 K, 1.22 WHIP
Actual: 32.1 IP, 2.51 ERA, 26 H, 0 HR, 9 BB, 23 K, 1.08 WHIP
Notes: Despite his declining strikeout rates, Aki retained his title as one of baseball's best relief pitchers during the first half of '07. But during the 8th inning of a July 1st contest in Boston, Otsuka was abruptly removed from the game due to forearm stiffness. At the time, the injury was classified as merely "day to day."
"Day to day" quickly turned to "out indefinitely," as continued inflammation and discomfort in Aki's arm over the final three months of the season brought his '07 campaign to a screeching halt. The rest and rehab plan doesn't appear to be making much headway, which could open up the possibility of a serious surgical procedure being performed on his ailing right elbow.
Otsuka is entering his second year of salary arbitration eligibility; the Rangers avoided that process in January by signing Aki to a one year, $3 million contract. Despite his questionable health status and rising price tag, Texas will likely tender a contract towards the 35-year-old right-hander - that being said, the front office might begin to have second thoughts if the name "Tommy John" starts popping up.
Vicente Padilla (+1.21 ERA, +.41 WHIP)
Projected: 168 IP, 4.55 ERA, 173 H, 21 HR, 61 BB, 122 K, 1.22 WHIP
Actual: 120.1 IP, 5.76 ERA, 146 H, 16 HR, 50 BB, 71 K, 1.63 WHIP
Notes: After being acquired from the Phillies in December '05 in exchange for the failed Ricardo Rodriguez, Padilla gave the Rangers 200 innings of 4.50 ERA baseball in 2006; in other words, slightly above league average. The club rewarded Vicente by presenting him with a shiny new three year, $34 million contract last winter, in the hopes that he could provide similar production '07.
Unfortunately, what the Rangers got was anything but productive. Injuries landed the 30-year-old Nicaraguan native on the disabled list for over two months, and a nasty late season beanball incident involving Oakland's Nick Swisher at McAfee Coliseum earned Padilla a seven game suspension - and further alienation from his teammates, club management, and die-hard Ranger followers everywhere.
Perhaps Philadelphia fans were onto something when they labeled Vicente as the prototypical "million dollar arm, ten cent head" player.
John Rheinecker (+.00 ERA, +.25 WHIP)
Projected: 151 IP, 5.36 ERA, 181 H, 22 HR, 49 BB, 76 K, 1.52 WHIP
Actual: 50.1 IP, 5.36 ERA, 61 H, 9 HR, 28 BB, 40 K, 1.77 WHIP
Notes: 6.21 ERA in 37.2 IP as a starter, 2.84 ERA in 12.2 IP as a reliever. There's really no logical reason for Rheinecker to ever start a major league game again, but he could become a respectable LOOGY.
Robinson Tejeda (+.93 ERA, +.21 WHIP)
Projected: 114 IP, 5.68 ERA, 115 H, 24 HR, 64 BB, 93 K, 1.57 WHIP
Actual: 95.1 IP, 6.61 ERA, 110 H, 17 HR, 60 BB, 69 K, 1.78 WHIP
Notes: After compiling a 2.32 ERA over his final eight starts of '06, Tejeda seemed primed to break out in '07. But after pitching seven brilliant shutout innings against Boston in the RBiA home opener, it was all downhill for the 25-year-old Dominican native - a 6.61 ERA and a horrific 60 BB in 95.1 IP earned him a permanent demotion to AAA on July 23rd, where he would remain the rest of the season.
Upon his arrival to Oklahoma, things went from bad to worse - Tejeda pieced together four more miserable starts for the Redhawks, before being placed on the disabled list with an undisclosed injury. After his return, Robinson made just a single one inning relief appearance the rest of the way.
Tejeda could still re-emerge as an option for the starting rotation at some point, but there's little doubt as to how far his stock has fallen, and he has been surpassed on the organizational depth chart by other young hurlers such as Luis Mendoza. He's out of options, meaning he'll have to clear waivers this winter before Texas can outright him to the minor leagues. In other words, his Rangers career may soon be coming to an end.
Edinson Volquez (-1.58 ERA, -.17 WHIP)
Projected: 157 IP, 6.08 ERA, 183 H, 32 HR, 69 BB, 114 K, 1.61 WHIP
Actual: 34 IP, 4.50 ERA, 34 H, 4 HR, 15 BB, 29 K, 1.44 WHIP
Notes: With Edinson Volquez still reeling from his 1-6, 7.29 ERA tour of duty in the big leagues in '06, the Rangers decided to take a radical course of action in late March: they demoted the 24-year-old right-hander to Single-A Bakersfield, in the hopes of salvaging his once burgeoning major league career. Toronto took a similar chance six years ago, with some random spare named Roy Halladay.
Needless to say, the early returns have been impressive - Volquez struggled mightily in Bakersfield (0-4, 7.13 ERA in 35.1 IP), but the Rangers stayed the course with Edinson and promoted him to AA in mid-May. Volquez rebounded nicely at Frisco (8-1, 3.55 ERA in 58.1 IP), earning him a mid-July promotion to Oklahoma. He was dominant for the Redhawks, and appeared to be in line to make his 2007 Rangers debut on August 21st.
Alas, immaturity reared its ugly head. Volquez overslept on the morning of August 19th and missed a scheduled bullpen session, causing the Rangers to take disciplinary action and delay his promotion to the big leagues until September. To his credit, Volquez apologized for his mistake, and fired 13 more shutout innings for the Redhawks while biding his time in Oklahoma.
Edinson was finally called up on September 1st, and would not disappoint: featuring a mid-90's fastball and two above-average breaking pitches, Volquez definitely impressed the organization that he had previously let down. He'll go into spring training with an inside track on the #5 starter spot, a role which he'll likely relinquish only if he completely bombs on the mound - or sleeps through another bullpen session.
C.J. Wilson (-1.70 ERA, -.21 WHIP)
Projected: 59 IP, 4.73 ERA, 60 H, 9 HR, 24 BB, 48 K, 1.42 WHIP
Actual: 68.1 IP, 3.03 ERA, 50 H, 4 HR, 33 BB, 63 K, 1.21 WHIP
Notes: Command remains an issue for the "Blue Glove Lefty," but the sky's otherwise the limit for C.J. He appeared to run out of gas late in the season, a problem which is mostly attributable to the career highs he achieved in appearances (66) and innings pitched (68.1). If he can get past those obstacles, Wilson might eventually evolve into one of the top two or three left-handed relievers in baseball - or a really good starting pitcher.
Mike Wood (-.08 ERA, +.07 WHIP)
Projected: 123 IP, 5.41 ERA, 141 H, 21 HR, 45 BB, 71 K, 1.51 WHIP
Actual: 50.2 IP, 5.33 ERA, 68 H, 9 HR, 15 BB, 25 K, 1.64 WHIP
Notes: Semi-useful mopup guy, but also fairly expendable due to the stockpile of younger and cheaper arms lying around. Wood elected to take his free agency after being removed from the 40-man roster on Monday, effectively ending his tenure as a member of the Texas organization.
Jamey Wright (-1.46 ERA, -.04 WHIP)
Projected: 156 IP, 5.08 ERA, 166 H, 21 HR, 70 BB, 86 K, 1.51 WHIP
Actual: 77 IP, 3.62 ERA, 72 H, 6 HR, 41 BB, 39 K, 1.47 WHIP
Notes: The man who I personally proclaimed as a "mediocre veteran retread" during spring training certainly lived up to that label early in the season; he allowed five runs in 2.2 IP in his first start of the season, and shortly thereafter landed on the disabled list.
Wright continued to struggle upon his return to the rotation on June 16th, prompting his move to the bullpen in early August. Much to everybody's surprise (including my own), Jamey dominated in his newfound relief role, compiling a 2.05 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 30.2 IP out of the bullpen the rest of the way.
With the departure of organizational fodder like Mike Wood, Wright could be in line for a new contract with the Rangers. And as long as the deal is fairly short and inexpensive, I wouldn't have a problem with that. That is, as long as Ron Washington keeps him the hell out of the rotation.
Generally speaking, Texas relievers tended to outperform their 2007 ZiPS forecasts; conversely, the starters tended to underperform theirs. That all brings us to Dan's 2008 ZiPS projections for the Rangers pitching staff - and as with the offense, they ain't looking real good.
On paper, Kevin Millwood appears to be the only odds-on favorite among the tentative Opening Day starting rotation to be league average or better; Padilla, McCarthy, Gabbard and Volquez all fall beneath that 4.71 ERA threshold.
That being said, I certainly feel there's the potential here for those latter four hurlers to reach or exceed the league average benchmark. McCarthy's a fairly decent bet to do so, while Padilla's probably a 50-50 shot at best after his trainwreck 2007 campaign. Gabbard might be able to spin together 150 decent innings, and Volquez's total package of youth, upside and talent all serve to work in his favor as he attempts to develop into a front-line major league starter.
But, again, there's a whole lot of uncertainty here. And while the bullpen looks to be fairly respectable once again, the truth is that the Rangers are going to need absolute dominance out of that unit if they're to have any illusions of competing for a playoff spot in 2008 with their debilitated offense.
Either that, or this rotation is going to have to take a monster step forward from their miserable 2007 campaign. And realistically, do I see either of those possibilities coming to fruition?
Probably not.
4 Comments | in