The Texas Rangers Top 10: Stories Of 2007 (Part I)

For the long-suffering Texas Rangers and their ever loyal fanbase, the 2007 season was originally intended to signal the arrival of a new beginning. A new era, even.

Armed with a respectable offensive attack, a potentially dominant bullpen unit and perhaps the most stable Opening Day starting rotation to roll through Arlington in years, the Rangers seemed poised to easily surpass the 80-82 record they had compiled in 2006.

And underneath the newfound guidance and leadership of self-proclaimed "player's manager" Ron Washington (whose style was widely believed to be a refreshing change of pace from the stifling micromanagement that exemplified Buck Showalter's four year tenure in Texas), many felt that the Rangers, despite playing in one of baseball's more competitive divisions, were finally in position to flourish.

It's funny how things don't always work out the way you planned.

The offense, decimated by key early season injuries to Mark Teixeira, Hank Blalock and Brad Wilkerson, struggled mightily at times to put runs on the scoreboard. And though the bullpen was every bit as dominant as Texas could have reasonably hoped for, the rotation collapsed into a disaster of epic proportions.

By the morning of June 1st, Texas starting pitching had recorded a cumulative ERA of 6.44 - nearly a full run worse than the next worst starting rotation in baseball, which belonged to the equally hapless Tampa Bay Devil Rays (5.58 ERA).

Not surprisingly, the Rangers also woke up on the morning of June 1st with a brutal 19-35 record, tied with the Kansas City Royals for the worst in baseball. Meanwhile, the remainder of the AL West pulled far ahead of the floundering Rangers, with the first place Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in particular staking a 13.5 game lead over Texas.

For the Rangers, the season was quite literally over before it even started.

They would eventually sink to a season-low record of 23-42 on June 13th, after the conclusion of a blowout loss at Pittsburgh, before finally turning their fortunes around with a successful second half run. Granted, they still finished dead last in the AL West with a 75-87 record, but sometimes you have to take what you can get.

Many Ranger fans are trying their hardest to forget about the misery that epitomized last year's frustrating campaign. I can't say that I blame them. But even during the course of a season as awful as the one we just witnessed, there are many noteworthy stories - some good, some bad, and some in between - that deserve special recognition for their significance.

Here are a few of those stories.

#10 - A-Rod Opts Out

October 28th, 2007

From the standpoint of a die-hard Rangers fan, one of the most interesting side plots to unfold during the course of the 2007 playoffs was the fascinating saga of New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, and whether or not he would choose to opt out of the record 10-year, $252 million deal he originally inked with Texas before the 2001 season.

Under the terms of that contract, Rodriguez possessed the ability to exercise an opt-out clause that would immediately render him an unrestricted free agent after the 2007 season, if he so desired.

The opt-out window, however, was limited: A-Rod had to make his decision between the time his club was eliminated from post-season contention, and a contractually imposed deadline set 10 days after the conclusion of the World Series. If he didn't exercise his opt-out clause within that brief time frame, Alex would remain locked in with his current team for the final three years of his existing deal.

It wouldn't take Rodriguez ten days to reach his decision. During the final innings of the 2007 Fall Classic, word leaked that Rodriguez had indeed opted out - and the Rangers, as a result, would no longer be required to pay the remaining $21,304,500 subsidy they owed to the Yankees as part of the February 2004 blockbuster trade that originally shipped A-Rod to the Bronx.

In time, Alex discovered that both he and superagent Scott Boras had misread the free agent market. After hanging Boras out to dry, Rodriguez personally negotiated a shiny new 10-year, $275 million contract with the Steinbrenner sons, thus all but guaranteeing that the Hall of Fame-bound infielder will retire as a Yankee.

At long last, the book on the A-Rod era in Texas has been shut.

#9 - The Continuing Emergence Of Ian Kinsler

An utterly miserable start out of the gates for the Rangers was at least somewhat mitigated by a monstrous month of April from the bat of second baseman Ian Kinsler.

Drafted out of the University of Missouri by Texas in the 17th round (496th overall pick) of the 2003 MLB Draft, Kinsler ascended rapidly through the ranks of the Rangers farm system, won the big league starting job at second base outright at just age 23, and appeared primed to build off his strong rookie season.

Kinsler hit an astonishing .298/.375/.667 with 9 HR in just 84 AB for the month of April, though he failed to win the AL Player of the Month award in the face of A-Rod's even more ridiculous .355/.415/.882 batting line and 14 HR in 93 AB. He did snag AL Player of the Week honors for the period spanning from April 9th through April 15th, however, after going 10-for-21 at the plate and slugging four home runs.

Oddly enough, Ian followed up the best offensive month of his burgeoning Major League career to date with his worst, batting just .174/.267/.228 during a May campaign that found Texas losing 20 out of 29, and falling permanently out of contention in the AL West. He rebounded to hit a steady .259/.366/.482 in June, but a stress fracture in his left foot would sideline him for the entirety of the month of July.

That injury turned out to be a blessing in disguise, as it granted the 25-year-old infielder precious time to work on his fielding, an area of his game which had ranged from shaky to downright awful for the better part of the year. Ian worked almost non-stop with manager Ron Washington and bench coach Art Howe on his footwork and positioning defensively during his stint on the disabled list. His efforts paid obvious dividends over the final two months of the 2007 season.

Kinsler wrapped up his second full big league campaign with a .263/.355/.441 batting line and 20 HR in 483 AB, including an impressive 23-for-25 run on the basepaths. Despite recording a batting average 23 points lower than the one he compiled a year previous, Ian realized healthy gains in the EqA (.266 to .277) and WARP3 (5.1 to 7.5) departments.

That improvement is undoubtedly attributable to not only his huge strides defensively, but also his marginally higher on-base percentage, and his brilliant 20-20 offensive accomplishment.

What will the calendar year of 2008 hold for Kinsler? With any luck, fewer injury woes - and hopefully, a long-term contract extension.

Anything beyond that is gravy.

#8 - 200 Hits, Part V

September 26th, 2007

Like it or not, a good share of the Rangers' aforementioned April struggles could be linked to the accompanying offensive difficulties of shortstop Michael Young. Following the conclusion of a home doubleheader sweep at the hands of the hated Yankees on May 3rd, Young was hitting a paltry .192/.211/.308 through 120 AB.

Not only had his power production mysteriously disappeared, but with each passing day, the odds of Young being able to log his usual .300+ batting average and 200 hits before season's end seemed to be fading further and further away.

But in trademark Michael Young fashion, the "Face of the Franchise" would come storming back from the brink - and with a vengeance. From May 4th onward, Young batted .343/.399/.443 over 519 AB, and recorded a pair of memorable walk-off RBI singles to sink both Milwaukee (June 9th) and Baltimore (July 6th).

Fast forward to September 26th, the Rangers' final home date of the year. Young entered the game with a comfortable .312 batting average, but just 197 hits.

One 3-for-5 day at the plate and a rousing standing ovation from the home crowd later, Michael had notched his fifth consecutive 200-hit campaign - and further cemented his legacy as one of the greatest Rangers to ever step foot on a baseball field.

#7 - Farewell, Ameriquest

March 19th, 2007

A decision that was almost universally panned from the moment it was announced was finally remedied less than two weeks before the onset of the 2007 season, as the Texas Rangers severed ties with Ameriquest Mortgage after a relationship that spanned almost three years in length.

Ameriquest had held the naming rights to the stadium formerly known as "The Ballpark in Arlington" since May 7th, 2004, when team owner Tom Hicks signed them over to Ameriquest for the paltry sum of $75 million over the life of a 30-year contract - for you math majors out there, that's just $2.5 million per year. These days, that's just barely enough to pay the salary of one mediocre reliever in the twilight of his career.

The Rangers reportedly began to show signs of buyer's remorse sometime in 2006, and consequently approached Ameriquest about the possibility of buying out the contract; initially, they were rebuffed. But with the total and utter collapse of the subprime lending market in late 2006, Ameriquest ran into dire financial straits, and wisely chose to revisit negotiations regarding their stadium naming rights deal with Texas.

After reaching a "mutually beneficial" decision with Ameriquest in terminating the sponsorship agreement, the Rangers moved quickly to rename their home stadium to "Rangers Ballpark in Arlington" - the product of a supposedly re-energized effort on the part of Hicks and company to improve their brand recognition within the competitive entertainment landscape of the Metroplex. I'm still not sure if I buy that explanation, but it's a nice sentiment nonetheless.

And hey, at least that damn bell is gone.

#6 - Six Hundred For Sosa

June 20th, 2007

Sammy Sosa.

Few names in baseball are more polarizing than that of the one belonging to the latest entrant to baseball's prestigious 600 HR club. Even fewer can say they were a part of the 2007 Rangers.

After a one-year layoff from the great game, Sosa and the Rangers agreed to terms on a minor league contract with an invitation to big league spring training on January 30th. Although the club's initial company line was that Sosa was brought aboard merely to "compete" for the everyday DH job, it became increasingly clear as spring training progressed that he would be "the one."

Whither Jason Botts?

While Botts terrorized Pacific Coast League pitching at Triple-A Oklahoma to the tune of .320/.436/.545 in 369 AB, Sosa drifted through the motions. "Slammin' Sammy" jacked 21 HR and recorded a team-high 92 RBI in 412 AB, but also hit just .252/.311/.468 overall. Nearly 83% of his plate appearances came as a DH, firmly positioning him as one of baseball's worst designated hitters in 2007.

Sosa would prove to still be a capable lefty masher (.328/.410/.613 in 119 AB), but the helpfulness derived from that type of production is hindered significantly when almost 70% of your plate appearances come against right-handers - and you hit a meager .222/.267/.410 against them.

The bright spot of Sammy's season came on June 20th, when he launched the 600th home run of his storied Major League career into the right-center field bullpen at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Fittingly enough, it came against the team he had spent 13 of his 18 big league seasons playing for: the Chicago Cubs.

By the time early August rolled around, Sammy's role had been reduced to that of a part-time player. Jason Botts was called up from the Redhawks to audition as the club's everyday DH for the final two months of the season, but a less than impressive showing offensively (.240/.326/.335 in 167 AB) may have been the final straw for the Rangers, who suddenly find themselves overflowing in outfield depth as a result of their most recent acquisitions.

And as for Sosa? Despite providing below-average offense and virtually zero defensive value, the 39-year-old outfielder is still sticking by his demands for a $7 million contract in 2008. That's a lot of dough to shell out for a player who's the proverbial one-trick pony - surefire Hall of Famer or not.

Yep, he's still Sammy.

Rangers Continue Search For Pitching Help

Before I begin, I'd like to apologize for the lack of updates over the last few days. We're getting to (or are already at) that point in the off-season where the Texas Rangers are either making news in sudden, unexpected bursts, or not at all. The latter was most certainly in full effect over the weekend.

Beyond the reportedly imminent signing of free agent reliever Eddie Guardado, it doesn't appear as though Jon Daniels and company will be ringing in the new year with another surprise roster move or blockbuster trade.

Then again, that may not be such a terrible thing. Some lingering questions remain concerning the makeup of the Rangers' unfinished 2008 squad, but one thing seems certain: the organization, as a whole, os considerably stronger right now in terms of both talent and depth than it was merely three months ago.

One of those most pressing questions pertains to the back of the rotation, where the Rangers are evaluating a myriad of options - both internal and external. According to T.R. Sullivan's Monday morning update at "Postcards from Elysian Fields," Texas continues to look at free agent starters Jason Jennings, Bartolo Colon, Mark Hendrickson, Josh Towers and Mike Maroth as possible candidates to fill the recently vacated fifth slot in the Rangers' rotation out of spring training.

As I discussed in detail last Wednesday, I'm relatively wary to both Jennings and Colon because of the arm and shoulder problems they've each experienced in recent years; that being said, Colon has a much more palatable track record to his credit than Jennings, and with all other things (such as contract length and financials) being equal, I'd much rather have Colon.

Incidentally, Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog.com is reporting that the 34-year-old Colon, who is currently pitching for Aguilas Cibaenas in the Dominican Winter League, has received "a lot of good reviews" for his work on the mound thus far. Don't think for one second that the Rangers aren't keeping tabs on his DWL progress.

And as for the likes of Hendrickson, Towers and Maroth? Yawn. If the Rangers decide that they absolutely must roll the dice on one of these lower-tier options, I'd prefer it to be on Towers. He's six months older than Maroth, but he does have at least one very good season to his credit - an impressive 208.2 inning campaign with the Blue Jays in 2005, during which the 30-year-old right-hander notched a solid 3.71 ERA (120 ERA+) and 1.28 WHIP.

Neither Hendrickson or Maroth, both of whom are southpaws, have ever pitched anywhere near that well over an full big league season. To be fair, none of the trio are particularly great at striking out opposing batters or avoiding hits, but Josh's above-average walk rates seem to indicate that, at the very least, he possesses some degree of plus control on the mound. All three remain quite prone to the gopher ball, however.

Looking for more reason for alarm from this collection of free agent outcasts? In 16.2 career IP in Arlington, Towers has gone 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA and 1.92 WHIP, and Ranger batters have clubbed him at an absurd .390/.405/.714 clip. Hendrickson has pitched just 1/3rd of an inning at RBiA, while Maroth has surrendered a 8.38 ERA and equally horrific 2.12 WHIP in 19.1 IP. Both Towers and Maroth have allowed five career home runs in Arlington.

Now, are these statistically insignificant sample sizes? Probably so. But at the same time, is it fair to assume that Towers' and Maroth's struggles in Arlington to date are more than just pure coincidence? And perhaps even indicative of what would likely unfold over the span of a full season, if the Rangers chose to ink one of them and they won a rotation spot?

It's hard to say definitively, but the answer probably lies closest to a resounding "yes."

Sullivan caps his update by throwing out a hypothetical trade question, which asks whether or not we would deal third baseman Hank Blalock to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for left-hander Chris Capuano. I could probably knock out a couple more paragraphs discussing this idea in detail, but I'll save everybody the time: no, I wouldn't make that trade.

And neither, I'm betting, would Jon Daniels.

Meanwhile, Richard Durrett of the Dallas Morning News has happily jumped aboard the Jason Jennings bandwagon, citing his "youth" and "upside" as reasons why the Rangers might be interested in signing him to a short-term, incentive-laden contract.

But at age 29, isn't Jennings already more or less a known quantity? He can most accurately be summed up as a league-average (or thereabouts) sinkerballer that will allow far too many walks, but probably won't kill your chances of winning on any given night that he happens to take the mound.

That is, unless he's hurt. And right now, I'm not sure which Jason Jennings we should be expecting to show up in 2008: the brilliant 2006 version (130 ERA+), the injured 2007 version (68 ERA+), or something nestled in between.

Such is the nature of baseball's damaged goods market.

Major League Baseball's offices are closed through January 2nd, which presumably means that there won't be any further movement on the Kazuo Fukimori front until Thursday, at the very earliest. Texas finalized a two-year deal with the 31-year-old Japanese reliever on December 13th, but undisclosed hangups concerning the technical language in his contract have prevented the Commissioner's Office or the MLBPA from officially approving his addition to the Rangers' 40-man roster.

The Fort Worth Star-Telegram's Anthony Andro has published his list of baseball's biggest winners and losers to date this off-season, and named the Tigers, Red Sox, Yankees, Astros and Rangers as the five teams who have benefited the most from this winter's wheelings and dealings.

I don't agree with Andro's inclusion of the Astros, mainly because Ed Wade has emptied the remainder of an already barren farm system to acquire several players (Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde and Michael Bourn) who, more than likely, won't put Houston over the top in the competitive waters of the NL Central.

In fact, Houston's window of opportunity may have already passed. This could easily result in a lengthy rebuilding period for the Astros - one which might find them floundering around or below the .500 mark for several years - before they reemerge as a legitimate post-season threat in the National League.

But as for the Tigers, Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers? Sure, why not.

Mike Hindman of "Rangers Farm Report" has named the left-handed duo of Kasey Kiker and Neil Ramirez as the 5th and 6th best pitching prospects in the Rangers' organization, respectively.

Kiker, the 12th overall pick and the Rangers' top choice in the 2006 MLB Draft, posted a 7-4 record with a 2.90 ERA and 1.30 WHIP for the Clinton Lumberjacks of the Class-A Midwest League in 2007. Baseball Prospectus's Kevin Goldstein excluded Kiker entirely last week from his list of the Rangers' top 11 prospects, while I nominated him as the Rangers' 5th best prospect.

Despite experiencing a fairly significant plunge in his fastball velocity (from 97 MPH to the low 90's) due to retooled pitching mechanics, the 20-year-old Kiker was able to record 112 strikeouts in just 96.1 IP, thanks to solid command and an above-average secondary offering. He'll almost certainly open the 2008 season with the High-A Bakersfield Blaze.

Ramirez, a supplemental-round selection taken with the 44th overall pick in the 2007 MLB Draft, has yet to throw a single pitch at the professional level. But with a pitching repertoire consisting of what Hindman describes as an "explosive" 94 MPH heater and a vicious, biting curve that sits in the high 70's, it's not hard to see why the Rangers chose to ink the Virginia high school prep star to a cool above-slot signing bonus of $1 million. He'll likely make his professional debut with Low-A Spokane, when the short-season Northwest League kicks off in June.

And finally, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News publicly disclosed his choices for baseball's Hall of Fame class of 2008 on Sunday afternoon, and included Bert Blyleven, Dave Concepcion, Andre Dawson, Rich Gossage, Tommy John, Jack Morris and Tim Raines on his ballot.

To tell you the truth, I'm a "small Hall" kind of guy. I've never been able to wrap my head around the idea that Bruce Sutter is a true HoF-caliber pitcher, and even the "Goose" strikes me as a borderline case. For those reasons, the only three players I can justifiably throw my undivided support behind on the present ballot are Bert Blyleven, Mark McGwire, and Tim Raines.

But alas, it's beginning to appear as though none of my Hall of Fame hopefuls will make it in this time around. According to a preliminary tally of votes compiled by ESPN's Keith Law, Gossage is the lone candidate currently poised to receive the 75% share of the vote necessary to gain entry into Cooperstown.

And that's a crying shame. But hey, there's no crying in baseball - or on New Year's Eve either, for that matter.

Happy New Year to each and every one of you. May your 2008 be filled with joy, wealth and prosperity.

Make sure to check in Thursday, as we review and reflect upon some of the biggest stories of the Rangers' disappointing, but ever-eventful, 2007 campaign.

Friday Afternoon Rangers Notes

As I sat in my living room last night, watching the Sun Devils and Longhorns duke it out in the highly prestigious Holiday Bowl, two thoughts sprang to mind as ESPN's camera crew panned relentlessly to the face of a dejected Chris Jessie - the young man (and stepson of Texas head coach Mack Brown) supposedly responsible for no less than a seven point swing on the scoreboard:

1. He didn't touch the ball. Granted, he never should have been in that position (that is to say, on the field during a live play) to begin with, but there was not enough visual evidence present to rule conclusively either way.

2. Just how much do you think ESPN wanted that sequence of events to spark to an improbable Arizona State comeback and victory, so that the national sports media could run Jessie's name through the dirt just like they did with Steve Bartman four years ago? It's almost sickening to contemplate.

Fortunately, not even the Longhorns could match the Chicago Cubs' literally incomprehensible choke job in the 2003 NLCS, and held on to win by a 52-34 margin.

But good grief. I'll be glad when baseball starts.

Reactions on the Josh Hamilton trade continue to trickle in from across the baseball world; Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus delved into the issue as part of her latest "Transaction Analysis" segment on Thursday:

At the very least, on the surface of it GM Jon Daniels has added an immensely gifted player who looks like he can hit right-handers and play a fine center. The risk taken is about as large as might be conceivable in a deal of prospect for prospect. Hamilton's gifts have been the stuff of legend for years, but there's an equally frightening amount of pumpkin potential. We've been nominating deals for �the one that made/broke/saved/killed Jon Daniels� for a couple of years now, and this fits comfortably with the Soriano and Teixeira swaps on that list. The possibility is that in Hamilton he gets the MVP candidate who might erase ready memories of the other two. For a pitcher, even one as talented as Volquez, that seems like a fun risk to have taken. The Rangers aren't going anywhere immediately anyways, and if Hamilton works out, his best years will cost the Rangers next to nothing to enjoy.

Kahrl also provided some interesting evidence to suggest that Hamilton may actually be swinging late on quite a few fastballs, citing his strong power numbers against "finesse" pitchers (those who strike out or walk less than 24% of batters faced, according to Baseball Reference) last year, his propensity for crushing sliders, and his extreme opposite-field fly ball tendencies.

One problem with this theory, however, may be that the 2007 Texas Rangers were also much better offensively last year against finesse pitchers than they were against "power" pitchers (those who strike out or walk more than 28% of batters faced). The Rangers' 2007 offense recorded an OPS exactly 100 points higher against finesse pitchers than it did against power pitchers, with much of that gain being derived from the slugging percentage department.

Furthermore, I have yet to come across a scouting report yet to suggest that Hamilton's bat speed is anything less than plus-plus. This may or may not be something worth keeping an eye on as we move forward, but from where I currently stand, this isn't exactly something to lose sleep over.

In addition, Baseball Think Factory's Dan Szymborski has released his ZiPS projections on Hamilton, and projects a .281/.349/.491 campaign for him in 2008:

The upside for the Rangers is pretty obvious. Josh Hamilton was a hot prospect for a reason and when healthy, was terrific for the Reds. Hamilton's problem, however, is a number of reasons that have kept him off the baseball field over the last decade. In the event that Josh Hamilton gets on the field, he's the most talented centerfielder (assuming you don't consider Juan Gonzalez one for his early days) in Ranger history - one cannot watch Hamilton play a few games in baseball and not love watching him play. Catching a handful of Reds games is enough to unleash the exuberance, both rational and irrational!

Volquez is the safer player here and when the hard-throwing pitching prospect with command issues is the safer bet, you know you're dealing with some big uncertainties. The man with the destined-to-be-misspelled-a-lot first name has electric stuff, but knowing what to do with it can sometimes be an issue for him. If you think command isn't important, just ask General Burnside. He may end up becoming a reliever, and a good one too. That leaves Daniel Herrera, an interesting relief prospect - an extreme groundballer who has this funky changeup-screwball-sinker thing that batters just hit straight down. I always like guys with interesting pitches, especially when those pitches exist and the pitchers in question actually throw them.

Can't really complain about this trade either way as I love everybody involved in the trade. It's really just a question of two organizations deciding which risks they can accept at which positions for what upside.

There can be no overstating the seriousness of Josh's past issues with drug abuse. That being said, if we are to believe Hamilton, he has now been clean since October 5th, 2005 - nearly 27 months.

Battling addiction will be a life-long struggle for Hamilton, but with the support system that the Rangers seem to be wrapping around their prized new acquisition (even going so far as to hire long-time friend and mentor Johnny Narron, brother of former Rangers manager Jerry Narron), it certainly appears that all the right pieces are falling into place for Hamilton's recovery to become permanent.

A much more legitimate question worth pondering is just how much of a toll those years of drug abuse took on Hamilton's body, and whether or not the resulting effects of his cocaine addiction will make him particularly susceptible to injury over the coming years. The amplified injury risk present here - rather than the danger of relapse, or lack of on-field results - is perhaps my greatest concern about Hamilton's future as a Ranger.

One week ago today, Texas inked outfielder Jason Ellison and right-hander Elizardo Ramirez to minor league contracts with invitations to big league spring training. Ellison, 29, is more or less regarded as the prototypical "all-field, no-hit" outfielder, whose usefulness at the big league level begins and ends as a late-inning defensive substitute. A quick glance at his career MLB numbers - .251/.302/.351 in 541 AB, with an OPS+ of 70 - only further confirms those suspicions.

Ramirez, who will turn 25 on January 28th, possesses a career 4-14 record with a 5.99 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 157.2 innings, divided unevenly between Philadelphia and Cincinnati over the last four seasons. He does wield above-average control, but that can only take you so far when you're not especially great at preventing hits or striking out opposing batters. Both signees will almost certainly head to Triple-A Oklahoma to begin the 2008 season.

Right-hander Mark Prior, who was non-tendered by the Chicago Cubs on December 12th, agreed to terms with the San Diego Padres on a one year, $1 million contract on Wednesday.

The Rangers had recently shown some degree of interest in bringing the 27-year-old free agent aboard on a short-term commitment, and even made a "lucrative proposal" according to Prior himself, but lingering concerns surrounding his health apparently manifested themselves after the club obtained his medical records.

Though incentive clauses in Prior's deal could push the overall value beyond the $3 million mark, the fact that Prior is receiving an almost insignificant base salary suggests that there are very few teams who believe he'll ever be a quality big league pitcher again.

It's not a horrible gamble on San Diego's part; after all, Prior was a pretty electrifying pitcher once upon a time, and the upside present here is probably just high enough to justify the mind-blowing risk involved. And besides, teams throw away much more than that for lesser players all the time - case in point, Astros GM Ed Wade, who just wasted $1 million of Drayton McLane's bankroll on the decomposing corpse of Darin Erstad.

But Prior isn't expected to be ready to retake the big league mound until sometime in May, and his once dominant mid-to-high 90's fastball now tops out in the high 80's on a good day. When you suddenly find yourself a riskier commodity than the likes of free agent right-handers Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia (the latter of whom is coming off rotator cuff surgery), you know your career's in serious jeopardy.

Once again, I've neglected to mention the publication of Mike Hindman's latest "Prospect Preview" capsules over at "Rangers Farm Report," in which Hindman names left-hander Matt Harrison and right-hander Fabio Castillo as the 7th and 8th best pitching prospects in the Rangers' organization, respectively.

Hindman believes that Harrison will stick as a "mid-rotation anchor" for Texas no later than Opening Day 2009, and pegs Castillo, who won't even be 19 years old until February 19th, for a return to Low-A Spokane in the Northwest League to begin the 2008 season. Harrison's a much safer bet to become a rotation mainstay, but Castillo's monstrous upside - he can already deal mid-to-high 90's cheese with a promising slider - makes him a far more intriguing prospect.

And finally, T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com noted in his weekly "Friday Happy Hour" piece over at "Postcards from Elysian Fields" that free agent reliever Eddie Guardado is now expected to sign with the Rangers shortly after the arrival of the new year.

Good.

Rangers Notebook: Holiday Edition

As it so happens, outfielder Josh Hamilton may not be the only member of the 2007 Cincinnati Reds to be joining the 2008 Texas Rangers.

Unsurprisingly, several noteworthy items were lost in the excitement of last week's surprise trade that sent right-hander Edinson Volquez and minor league left-hander Danny Ray Herrera packing to Cincinnati in exchange for the once-troubled Hamilton.

Early Friday afternoon, T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com reported that the Rangers were "expected to have something done" with veteran free agent reliever Eddie Guardado shortly after Christmas, or perhaps New Year's Day; presumably, that "something" is referring to an incentive-laden one-year deal.

"Everyday Eddie," now 37, pitched just 13.2 innings for the Reds during a rehab-shortened 2007 campaign. Guardado underwent Tommy John surgery on September 8th, 2006 after running into the dreaded "forearm soreness" injury in mid-August, which shelved him for the remainder of the season.

But in what can only described as a testament to Guardado's resiliency, the veteran southpaw would recuperate from elbow reconstruction surgery quickly enough to return to the mound for the Reds on August 9th, 2007 - almost eleven months to the day later.

Eddie would initially struggle, surrendering ten earned runs in his first five appearances back (4 IP), but he rebounded quickly and allowed just one earned run on four hits and three walks over his final ten appearances (9.2 IP) of the season.

Guardado, who has notched 183 saves over the course of his 15-year Major League career, figures to be thrown into a growing mix of potential closers that includes left-hander C.J. Wilson, as well as right-handers Joaquin Benoit and Kazuo Fukumori. Manager Ron Washington was entirely non-committal about the whole situation during a Wednesday morning interview with the Ticket's Norm Hitzges, saying that it will all shake out during spring training.

We'll see about that.

As for the actual signing itself, I have no problems with it: Guardado will be almost 19 months removed from Tommy John surgery by the time Opening Day rolls around, and though command is usually the last thing to return for a pitcher following such a surgical procedure, his traditionally impeccable control suffered no dramatically ill effects during his brief cameo at the end of the 2007 season. On a one-year commitment worth perhaps $2.5 to $3 million guaranteed, this is a fine gamble.

Meanwhile, the departure of Volquez from the organization has reopened a window of opportunity for several young pitchers hoping to break camp as part of the big league squad next spring. Right-handers Eric Hurley, Luis Mendoza, Armando Galarraga and Kameron Loe are all being considered as internal options to fill the now vacant fifth slot in the starting rotation, which is setting up to become yet another competition that will be decided during the course of spring training.

Texas continues to show some degree of interest in free agent right-handers Bartolo Colon and Jason Jennings, both of whom are coming off poor, injury-riddled 2007 seasons. According to Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune, however, the Rangers have dropped out of the running for the services of free agent right-handers Freddy Garcia and Mark Prior, due to significant medical concerns.

I'll freely admit that Jennings does very little for me: he induces lots of ground ball outs, but most of his key peripheral indicators (K/9, BB/9 and WHIP for starters) are thoroughly mediocre. Jason also battled elbow and shoulder tendinitis throughout the season, and though late-August surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in his right elbow has been deemed a success, both Jennings and his agent have probably been sipping a bit too much eggnog if they're honestly expecting to receive a multi-year contract offer.

To be fair, Colon carries his own set of potentially worrisome injury concerns, and has long toed the perilously thin line between a bulky but competitive playing weight, and outright obesity. That being said, Bartolo has always been a quality starting pitcher when healthy, even bordering on dominant at times. If the Texas medical staff has legitimate reason to believe that Colon can give the Rangers 150 healthy innings next year, that's a risk I would be more than willing to take.

In the meantime, Guardado's imminent addition to the 40-man roster figures to only complicate the roster situation even further. Fukumori's contract has not yet been officially approved by the Commissioner's Office or the MLBPA due to some discussions regarding the technical language in his deal, which explains why the Rangers have not yet been required to make a roster move.

However, it's becoming increasingly difficult to see where the Rangers will be able to prune not just one, but two players from their crowded 40-man roster. Left-hander Bill White will probably be designated for assignment once Guardado is inked, though, while outfielders Nelson Cruz and Jason Botts remain the most likely candidates for removal when Fukumori's contract is finally approved.

Enthralled at the prospect of Josh Hamilton launching moonshots into RBiA's hitter-friendly right field home run porch? You may want to cool those jets a little.

Although one might ordinarily think that being a left-handed power hitter in Arlington would instantaneously translate to a healthy dose of jet stream-aided gopher balls, just two of the 19 homers that Hamilton collected during his breakout 2007 campaign can be technically classified as such. Josh hit 14 home runs to either left, left-center or center field last year; the majority of those traveled (or would have traveled) at least 400 feet, according to Hit Tracker Online.

Public sentiment regarding the Hamilton trade across the baseball community has generally been favorable in the Rangers' direction, which is reflected in the poll results along the right sidebar. Among the mainstream baseball press, ESPN's Keith Law issued perhaps the most well-reasoned breakdown of the deal on Saturday:

There's some risk involved, but there's a very good chance by acquiring Josh Hamilton, the Rangers just picked up a middle-of-the-order bat who's about to enter his prime years in exchange for a hard-throwing young pitcher (Edinson Volquez) with more risks around his future. For the Reds, they cash in some of their outfield surplus to add some pitching depth, but it's surprising to see a club aiming to contend in 2008 take a young arm in return, rather than using that surplus to acquire a starter who can push them toward 85-90 wins now.

The Rangers' system is full of pitching prospects, and they have a good number of infield and catching prospects, but they're light in the outfield, with 2007 draftee Julio Borbon probably the best of that group. Hamilton immediately becomes the best center fielder the Rangers have had in a decade -- all apologies to Laynce Nix, Tom Goodwin and Damon Buford -- and has a good chance to be the best hitter in the Rangers' 2008 lineup.

[...]

In exchange, the Reds get Volquez, a 24-year-old right-hander with five years in pro ball who still is more a thrower than a pitcher. He has a strong two-pitch combo in his fastball and changeup; his fastball is 91-96 mph and is "heavy," so he breaks a number of bats and it's hard for hitters to drive the ball, but he doesn't generate groundballs. His changeup is his best secondary pitch, always plus and occasionally rating a 65 or 70 on the 20-80 scale, making him more effective against left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters.

But Volquez has some significant red flags. His control has never been good, with 150 walks over the last two years in about 330 innings, and his fastball command is fringe-average; despite the heaviness of his heater, he's still been homer-prone in Texas, and heads now to another hitter-friendly park. Volquez still doesn't have an average breaking ball and it seems likely that at this point, he never will, in which case, he's much more likely to end up in the bullpen. If he's going to be a starter long-term, it's hard to envision him as more than a fourth starter because of the lack of a third pitch.

[...]

Even if Hamilton settles in as a 120-game, 500-plate appearance hitter, it will be hard for Volquez to perform well enough to provide more value to the Reds than Hamilton will to the Rangers. Add to that the normal risks associated with pitchers and the fact that Hamilton can contribute right away while Volquez has yet to show he's ready to pitch regularly in the majors and the exchange clearly favors Texas.

Courtesy of Lone Star Ball's Adam Morris, Baseball America's John Sickels also weighed in on the trade during his Wednesday afternoon ESPN.com chat session:

Rangers Question Please! TEXAS: A couple of Rangers questions, What is your take on the Hamilton/Volquez trade and what is your take on the state of the Rangers minor league system? THANKS!

SportsNation Jim Callis: Rangers have really restocked their system in the last year via trades and the draft. I loved that deal from the Texas side. I know the Reds have more outfielders than they know what to do with, and I guess they felt like Hamilton's body won't hold up after all the abuse he has subjected it to. But I don't believe in Volquez.

That lack of confidence in Volquez, as expressed by Law and Sickels, apparently extends to within the Rangers' front office. One unnamed team official remarked to T.R. Sullivan in the past week that Volquez's upside tops out as a #3 starter. Fascinating.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus ran through the Rangers' top 11 prospects in his latest "Future Shock" segment, and pegged 19-year-old right-hander Neftali Feliz as the organization's top prospect:

Feliz has pure gas now and projects for even more. He sits at 94-96 mph consistently, while touching 98 nearly every time out, and his heat features a hard boring action as well. He makes it look effortless with smooth, clean mechanics, and many feel there's more in there once his skinny frame fills out a bit. His breaking ball has improved considerably from when he first signed, and he earns rave reviews for his work ethic and maturity.

That strikes me as exceptionally high praise for a pitcher (really, "thrower" might be more accurate) that has yet to progress beyond Low-A Spokane - and for a pitcher who has, by all accounts, yet to develop a passable secondary pitch. In any event, here's how the remainder of Goldstein's list breaks down:

Five-Star Prospects

1. Neftali Feliz, RHP

Four-Star Prospects

2. Eric Hurley, RHP

3. Elvis Andrus, SS

4. Engel Beltre, OF

5. Michael Main, RHP

6. Chris Davis, 3B

Three-Star Prospects

7. Taylor Teagarden, C

8. Blake Beavan, RHP

9. Matt Harrison, RHP

10. Max Ramirez, C

11. German Duran, 2B

The total exclusion of left-hander Kasey Kiker is very odd, to say the least. Goldstein also names catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia as a potential breakout candidate, seems to be down on right-hander Brandon McCarthy, and appears to scold the Rangers for their decision to swap Volquez (who would have been the #2 prospect on the list) for Hamilton. Nonetheless, his overall outlook of the farm system remains optimistic:

Entering the year as the 22nd-ranked system in baseball, the Rangers are now one of the better ones around. They do lack that level of elite talent, but at the same time, this is an enormously deep system, with another six to eight players after the Top 11 that one could argue deserve three stars�-a rating that many teams exhaust before they get down to their 11the man.

For those who are interested, here's how I would currently rank the Rangers' top five prospects:

1. Eric Hurley, RHP

2. Elvis Andrus, SS

3. Chris Davis, 3B

4. Taylor Teagarden, C

5. Kasey Kiker, LHP

Todd Wills of the Dallas Morning News touched base with right-hander Blake Beavan in his Christmas morning piece, and noted that Beavan has not only been training in Irving, but is also working on improving a circle change that he learned from Rangers minor league pitching instructor Rick Adair at fall instructional league camp. He has yet to utilize his newest weapon during a live game, but plans on adding it soon to his already filthy pitching repertoire.

Beavan ticked off many within the Rangers' organization and fanbase with his over-the-top cockiness and lengthy contract holdout after being selected with the 17th overall pick in the 2007 MLB Draft; however, to Blake's credit, he finally appears to be "getting it." That's really, really good news - and on more than one level.

Make sure to check out T.R. Sullivan's interview with veteran right-hander Kevin Millwood, which delves a little bit into Millwood's largely undisclosed past and some of his favorite Christmas childhood memories. As you may know, Millwood isn't exactly the most talkative guy around.

And finally, Sullivan and Drew Davison also have an MLB.com "Year In Review" piece out, which recaps the major happenings of the Rangers' disappointing 2007 campaign.

Just seven weeks until Texas pitchers and catchers report to spring training in Surprise, Arizona.

Christmas Time In Texas

No, the title isn't a reference to the George Strait tune by the same name.

A remarkable year of Texas Rangers action, both on and off the field, has nearly come to an end. It's anybody's guess as to what the calendar year of 2008 will hold for this franchise and their long suffering fanbase, but I have a strong hunch that better days are on the way.

And soon.

I offer my deepest thanks, appreciation and gratitude to everybody who has been, and will continue to be, a loyal reader of Baseball Time in Arlington.

It may sound incredibly clich�d, but none of what I've been able to accomplish over the course of the last eleven months would have been possible without the support of my increasingly vocal and ever-growing audience.

Merry Christmas and happy holidays to each and every one of you.

NEWSFLASH: Volquez, Herrera Dealt To Reds For Hamilton

December 23rd, 2006: The Texas Rangers trade John Danks, Nick Masset and Jacob Rasner to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Brandon McCarthy and outfielder David Paisano.

Now almost one year to the day later, general manager Jon Daniels has pulled the trigger on another potentially career-defining move - a move that is certain to have tremendous, franchise-altering implications on the Texas Rangers not only for 2008, but in the long-term scope of things as well.

According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, the Texas Rangers have agreed to send right-hander Edinson Volquez and minor league left-hander Danny Ray Herrera to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for center fielder Josh Hamilton.

Wow. I hardly even know where to begin.

Even after successfully finalizing a one year, $5 million contract with free agent outfielder Milton Bradley back on December 18th, the organization made it perfectly clear that they still sought another legitimate option, via either trade or free agency, to help augment their shaky outfield situation. Bradley, who continues to recover from off-season surgery to repair a torn right ACL, may only be available as a corner outfielder on a part-time basis throughout much of the 2008 season anyway.

Needless to say, the signing of Bradley had done little to remedy the Rangers' deepening center field predicament; the only two players present on the 40-man roster that were physically capable of playing the position with any level of competence were Marlon Byrd and David Murphy, neither of whom were apparently regarded as everyday center fielders by the organization.

And yet, barring a surprise trade or free agent signing, it was Byrd and Murphy who were set to receive the vast majority of those precious center field at-bats for the Rangers in 2008.

That is, until Wayne Krivsky and the Cincinnati Reds entered into the picture.

In recent weeks, multiple local and national media reports had indicated that Josh Hamilton was on Texas's radar screen; we have now learned that the Rangers were interested in the 26-year-old outfielder as far back as early November, but were at one time unwilling to part with what the Reds were demanding in exchange: young, promising and homegrown starter Edinson Volquez.

Indeed, MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan reported as recently as Monday that trade talks between Cincinnati and Texas had grown "quiet." However, Evan Grant noted on Friday night that in actuality, the groundwork of the deal had agreed to several weeks previous, with the lengthy delay mainly being the byproduct of extensive background checks conducted by the Rangers:

"We did as much homework as we could without moving in with him in Raleigh [N.C.]," Daniels said. "We feel very confident that he fits not only with what we are trying to do on the field, but what we want to do off it."

That being said, the Dodgers' quick rebuffing of Texas when they made an open inquiry into the availability of outfielder Andre Ethier may have been the catalyst that finally set the cogs of this trade spinning into motion.

The saga of Josh Hamilton's rise to fame, fall into despair and subsequent resurgence on the baseball scene has been well chronicled by sources both more well informed and more comprehensive in nature than myself, but there are several bullet points concerning his life and career that undoubtedly bear mentioning.

Drafted first overall out of Athens Drive High School (Raleigh, NC) by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the 1999 MLB Draft, Hamilton's tremendous athleticism and five-tool skillset allowed him to snag a $3.96 million signing bonus at just 18 years of age. After hitting an impressive .347/.378/.593 with 10 HR in just 236 AB with the Princeton Devil Rays of the Rookie Appalachian League during the final months of the 1999 season, Josh's rise to superstardom seemed all but assured.

But personal demons began to take hold of Hamilton's life sometime after the 2000 season - demons which would threaten to destroy not only Josh's once burgeoning baseball career, but his entire existence.

During a rehabilitation stint at Bradenton, Florida following an off-season car accident, Josh acquired a nasty cocaine addiction at a local tattoo parlor; it was under the influence of recreational drugs that he allegedly decided it would be a good idea to get 26 assorted tattoos plastered all over his body.

Hamilton would amass just 100 at-bats during the 2001 season as a result of the injuries sustained in that car accident, but he opened 2002 with High-A Bakersfield in the Devil Rays organization. He batted .303/.359/.507 with 9 HR in 211 AB before a torn left rotator cuff, probably sustained on July 10th, 2002, brought an abrupt end to his season.

Mere days later, on July 15th, 2002, Hamilton was suspended for his first violation of Major League Baseball's substance abuse policy. During spring training with Tampa Bay in 2003, Josh was re-assigned to minor league camp after several instances of blatant tardiness in arriving to team workouts.

Needless to say, the Devil Rays didn't exactly get the response from their disciplinary action that they were looking for: Josh disappeared from camp altogether on March 23rd, and would resurface just twice (briefly) during the remainder of the 2003 season. Tampa Bay, attempting to downplay the seriousness of the situation, explained that his absence was the result of "undisclosed off-the-field problems."

His downward spiral continued. Hamilton enrolled himself in a drug rehabilitation program during his time away from baseball in 2003, but would fail to complete the program. On February 18th, 2004, Major League Baseball slapped Josh with a 30-day suspension for failing to pass a drug test, which was later extended indefinitely.

Although Hamilton was originally set to be eligible for reinstatement sometime in March 2005, his suspension would yet again be prolonged - this time through the remainder of the 2005 season, due to additional violations of the league's substance abuse policy.

But Hamilton would clean up his life during this time frame, as chronicled extensively by Josh himself during a groundbreaking July 2007 interview with ESPN The Magazine, and he would finally earn his full reinstatement to Major League Baseball on June 1st, 2006.

However, Josh would bat just .260/.327/.360 in 50 AB with Low-A Hudson Valley of the New York-Penn League during the final months of the 2006 season. The Devil Rays, undoubtedly fed up with Hamilton's antics, refused to award him a spot on their 40-man roster, thus exposing Hamilton to that winter's Rule V Draft.

Once again, Wayne Krivsky and the Cincinnati Reds entered into the picture. Chicago Cubs GM Jim Hendry snatched Hamilton up with the third pick of the draft, but as part of a predetermined agreement, dealt him to Krivsky and the Reds in exchange for cash considerations - and thus, launched into motion an incredible sequence of events that would lead to Josh becoming a Texas Ranger.

Hamilton surpassed everybody's wildest expectations with the Reds in 2007, batting an incredible .292/.368/.554 with 19 HR in just 298 AB - good for a 131 OPS+ and .294 EqA, elite offensive production from a center fielder. Make no mistake about it, either: Texas would not have agreed to part with a high-upside talent like Volquez if they weren't intending for Hamilton to receive the bulk of his playing time patrolling Rangers Ballpark in Arlington's wide center field expanse.

Josh's defensive capabilities, though widely lauded, are deserving of a closer examination. Hamilton recorded a RZR (Revised Zone Rating) of .898 in center field during an injury-shortened 2007 campaign, planting him firmly within the middle of the pack of all big league center fielders for the season - though still better than several highly touted free agents that Texas held varying degrees of interest in at one time or another, including Mike Cameron (.894), Torii Hunter (.891) and Aaron Rowand (.861).

Let's take that a step further, using +/- run conversions gleaned from The Hardball Times' zone rating data. According to the research compiled by Justin Inaz, Hamilton was approximately -5.7 runs below average defensively for his position last season. That jives with Baseball Prospectus's FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average) statistic, which pegs Josh at approximately -4 runs below average defensively.

Obviously, these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. Sample size, for starters, is a big issue here: Hamilton notched just 555 innings in center field for the Reds in 2007, or the equivalent of just 61 2/3 games. That's less than half a season's worth of usable information.

This data also fails to take into account the possibility of Josh's defense improving as the season progressed forward; remember, Hamilton lost almost four years of development to injuries, suspensions and off-the-field issues, and may have been more than a little rusty in the field as his inaugural big league campaign got underway.

Don't neglect Hamilton's cannon of a throwing arm, either. Josh also pitched during his high school baseball days in Raleigh, during which his fastball regularly lit up the radar gun to the tune of 95 MPH and higher. Even after undergoing shoulder surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff, you'd have to figure that Hamilton's arm will prove to be a serious asset for the Rangers defensively.

There are some legitimate offensive concerns worthy of further consideration as well, though. Hamilton terrorized right-handed pitching to the tune of .314/.391/.637 with 18 HR in 226 AB, but floundered mightily against southpaws, hitting a meager .222/.296/.292 with 1 HR in 72 AB. Josh also suffered away from the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ballpark, compiling a slugging percentage exactly 120 points lower on the road than at home.

That being said, it's hard to not get somewhat amped over the early projections of Hamilton's 2008 performance that are being disseminated by legendary baseball analyst Bill James, who is calling for a .305/.382/.598, 31 HR campaign from the Rangers' new center fielder in 2008. Too optimistic? Perhaps. Too small a sample size to properly work off of? Probably. But intoxicating, nonetheless.

Josh's well documented history of injuries, though worrisome, was carefully evaluated by Jon Daniels and the entire Rangers front office; in fact, Texas refused to go through with the deal unless the Reds granted the Rangers' medical staff permission to conduct a thorough physical examination of Hamilton, which Daniels discussed in detail with Mike Rhyner and Corby Davidson during an early Friday evening radio interview on the Hardline:

Now, losing Volquez, and to a lesser extent Herrera, certainly stings. Edinson, in particular, may have been the closest thing the Rangers had to a front-line, ace caliber starting pitcher.

And if there's anybody who has the potential to make this trade materialize into a win-win deal (or a definitive loss for Texas, should injuries or personal issues further delay Hamilton's development) for each club five years down the line, it's Volquez.

But with the quality pitching depth that the Rangers had accumulated in their farm system via trade and draft over the past several years, Texas felt that they could take a gamble in dealing away perhaps their brightest, most promising young pitching prospect - as long as the talent coming back in their direction surpassed that of what they were relinquishing.

Josh Hamilton, a truly transcendent talent, fit that profile. Whether or not Ron Washington, his coaching staff and the rest of the Rangers organization can continue unlocking the remainder of Hamilton's Hall of Fame potential - the very potential that once drew comparisons to legendary center fielder Mickey Mantle - remains to be seen.

But above all else, Hamilton represents one refreshing ideal for a franchise, and fanbase, that has witnessed more than 35 years of futility on the baseball field.

Hope.

Rangers Winter League Update

Note: This piece wasn't technically completed until after the Josh Hamilton trade was announced, which explains the time discrepancies.

* * * * *

On a day where the most significant Rangers-related news coming across the news wires revolves solely around the unsealing of Jason Grimsley's signed federal affidavit (pinning Sammy Sosa, Pete Incaviglia and others for use of performance-enhancing substances), I think it's a good idea to switch things up a bit.

Several members of the Rangers' 40-man roster are still participating in winter league action across Latin America, most of whom find themselves out of minor league options and will be fighting desperately to win a spot on the club's 25-man roster come spring training. Let's take a brief look at their progress, shall we?

Dominican Winter League

RHP Omar Beltre - 44.1 IP, 2.03 ERA, 13 BB, 24 K, 0.95 WHIP

Notes: OK, so Beltre isn't technically on the Texas 40-man roster; rather, he remains trapped in baseball's version of purgatory - the restricted list, where he has resided for almost 20 months. Omar's once promising big league career has been derailed by ongoing visa problems in the Dominican Republic, effectively preventing the 26-year-old Santo Domingo native from being able to travel stateside.

Not terribly much is known about Beltre's capabilities as a pitcher, other than that he possesses a power arsenal - which, by judging from his above peripherals, he can apparently command quite well. If Beltre can ever shake his visa troubles, there's plenty of reason to believe that he would be able to move quickly through the Texas farm system and quickly become an impact arm out of the bullpen.

But time is running out.

Odds of making the Rangers' 25-man roster: Zip. Zero. Nada.

OF Nelson Cruz - 101 AB, .317/.388/.485, 4 HR

Notes: Cruz has struggled at the plate over his last 10 games for Gigantes del Cibao, batting just 9 for 35 during that timespan with one home run, one double and a handful of walks. His overall body of work thus far in the Dominican Winter League, however, is indicative of the incredible talent and tantalizing potential that he has flashed to the Rangers on one than more occasion over the last year and a half.

But a miserable 2007 Major League campaign (.235/.287/.384 in 307 AB) has sent the 27-year-old corner outfielder reeling backwards, and has only placed further seeds of doubt into the minds of the Rangers' fanbase as to whether or not he will ever get the opportunity to display much of that untapped potential with Texas.

Odds of making the Rangers' 25-man roster: With the introduction of newly acquired center fielder Josh Hamilton into the fold, Cruz's odds of making the Rangers out of spring training - let alone surviving the winter on the club's 40-man roster - are rapidly falling, as he is out of minor league options. Realistically, Nelson will probably be designated for assignment sometime before New Year's.

RHP Robinson Tejeda - 27.1 IP, 2.96 ERA, 15 BB, 25 K, 1.06 WHIP

Notes: It's funny how much things can change in one year. Tejeda, acquired from Philadelphia two days before Opening Day 2006 in exchange for outfielder David Dellucci, strung together nine very impressive starts with the Rangers (4-2, 2.32 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 54.1 IP) over the final six weeks of his inaugural season in Texas. His success over that time span was largely attributable to much improved command.

Robinson went into 2007 with a relatively firm grasp on the #4 spot in the Rangers' starting rotation, but his control issues would return - and worse than ever. After coughing up 60 walks in just 95.1 IP, en route to a brutal 6.61 ERA on the season, Tejeda was demoted to Triple-A Oklahoma, and has now fallen far on the Rangers' pitching depth chart behind other emerging young arms such as Luis Mendoza.

Odds of making the Rangers' 25-man roster: Tejeda, like Cruz before him, is out of options. The Rangers can outright Tejeda back to the minors if they successfully run him through waivers, but Robinson's youth and explosive arsenal of pitches will likely entice some team that's willing to take a chance at the back of their rotation or bullpen.

Unless Texas decides to convert Tejeda to a relief role, the odds of him even still being a part of the organization four months from now don't seem real great.

RHP Edinson Volquez - 5.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1 BB, 6 K, 1.60 WHIP

Notes: Less than three days before the Josh Hamilton deal was consummated, I bought a one-year sponsorship of Volquez's Baseball Reference player page. Impeccable timing, as usual.

Odds of making the Rangers' 25-man roster: About as likely as the Atlanta Falcons hiring back Bobby Petrino as their head coach.

Mexican Winter League

OF Jason Botts - 230 AB, .335/.425/.513, 9 HR

Notes: Botts has been nothing short of brilliant for Yaquis de Obregon this winter, as his batting line clearly illustrates. Sixty strikeouts is a bit alarming, but he has also reached base at a healthy clip, thanks to above-average plate discipline. Pounding southpaws at a .390/.457/.561 clip doesn't hurt, either.

I still have questions about how well Jason's swing will hold up over the long haul against big league quality pitching, since it appeared that he was late on quite a few fastballs during his most recent two-month audition - even after shortening his swing and enhancing his batting stance by adding a leg kick earlier in the year at Oklahoma City. Only time will tell on how those concerns will bear themselves out.

Odds of making the Rangers' 25-man roster: Better than anybody else included on this list, though that may not be saying much. The Rangers supposedly want to roll with an starting outfield consisting of Marlon Byrd, Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley, and have tentatively penciled Frank Catalanotto in as their designated hitter against right-handers.

That could, theoretically, create some at-bats for Botts as Catalanotto's platoon partner; he might also be able to occasionally spell Byrd in the outfield, but Jason's not exactly known for his defense. Ultimately, Botts and Cruz may find themselves competing for one roster spot come late March - and if it comes down to that, superior plate discipline will likely prove to be the tipping point in Jason's favor.

Jenkins Passes On Rangers; Power Outage In Arlington?

The Texas Rangers' 40-man roster watch continues.

In his Thursday morning piece, Fort Worth Star-Telegram columnist Anthony Andro focused extensively on the Rangers' offensive power potential (or lack thereof) going forward into the 2008 season, and prominently noted that the projected Texas lineup contains just one player who has hit 30 or more home runs in a season - that being, of course, third baseman Hank Blalock, who smacked 32 homers during his last All-Star campaign back in 2004.

Although I suspect that the severity of this problem may be a bit overstated, it is indeed a legitimate concern that's worth keeping in mind when discussing the Rangers' 2008 offense. With any luck, the additional team OBP generated by 400 healthy at-bats from Frank Catalanotto and perhaps Milton Bradley, along with a full season's worth of production from Blalock, will help offset some of that lost power.

ESPN's Jerry Crasnick reports that free agent outfielder Geoff Jenkins has agreed to terms with the Philadelphia Phillies on a two year, $13 million contract, which includes a third year option for 2010 worth $7.5 million that could automatically vest based on the number of plate appearances he receives in 2008 and 2009.

Why is this relevant, you ask? Because, apparently, the Rangers were interested in Jenkins to the point that they may have actually floated a bid to the camp of the 33-year-old corner outfielder. There were never any indications from the club's local beat writers to indicate that Texas was especially serious about signing Jenkins, but as they say: where there's smoke, there's fire.

Jenkins is a good defensive outfielder according to multiple defensive metrics, but is more or less useless against southpaws (.242/.313/.408 for his career), which essentially makes him a slightly younger, better defending version of Frank Catalanotto with a bit more pop; that is, the left-handed portion of a corner outfield platoon. For that kind of money, I'll pass.

Crasnick does note that by signing Jenkins, the Phillies have sent a message that they're committing to Shane Victorino as their everyday center fielder, which should effectively end their pursuit of free agent center fielder Mike Cameron. The odds of Texas being able to snag Cameron on a two-year deal may still be low, but they just got a little bit better.

Courtesy of Lone Star Ball�s �lamron,� here�s a particularly interesting note on the Rangers� farm system from Keith Law�s latest ESPN.com chat:

Jon Daniels (Arlington, TX): How would you rate the job I have done so far? One really bad trade but otherwise not too bad. From the bottom to the top half of farm systems.

SportsNation Keith Law: I think you�ve done a very good job, much better than some of your local writers want to admit. You�ve got a legit case to say your system is #2 overall behind the Devil Rays�.

Wow.

And finally, Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com writes that the Kansas City Royals have reached a preliminary agreement with left-handed reliever Ron Mahay on a two year, $8 million contract.

Mahay was generally solid for the Rangers during his 3 1/2 year tenure in Arlington, compiling an ERA above 3.95 just once (granted, that was a horrific 6.81 in 2005, with an equally brutal 1.77 WHIP) and boasting better than league-average strikeout ratios in each season spanning from 2003 through mid-2007.

However, Mahay is a 36-year-old whose game is largely predicated on quality stuff, rather than any type of plus command - his BB/9 ratios, in particular, have taken an especially frightening turn northward, and grazed the 5.00 mark last year. He's also a pitcher who, despite his often glittery ERA, never failed to frighten me with unnerving regularity whenever former manager Buck Showalter would summon him into a close ballgame.

And as a result, I can't say I find it particularly heartbreaking that the Rangers didn't make any real attempt to bring Mahay back.

Bradley Deal Finalized; Rangers Chasing Prior?

Welcome to the Milton Bradley show.

The Texas Rangers finalized a one year, $5 million contract (plus undisclosed incentives) with the troubled 29-year-old outfielder on Tuesday. Despite continuing to rehabilitate from off-season surgery to repair a torn ACL in his right knee, Bradley insists that he'll be ready for Opening Day in some capacity:

"My knee is fine," Bradley said in a conference call on Tuesday. "I'm ahead of pace for the average person. I'm where I need to be and I'll be ready for the start of the season."

[...]

"I'll take it at whatever pace is necessary," Bradley said. "I've had knee surgery before, although not the same kind. You deal with it. Some days it will be cranky, some says it won't. I'll go at whatever pace is needed and be ready for the season."

In all likelihood, Bradley will open the 2008 season as the Rangers' designated hitter - probably through the better half of April, if I had to wager a guess. Though manager Ron Washington expects Bradley to eventually serve as the club's everyday right fielder, he left the door open for his team's newest offensive weapon to receive some work in center field as well:

"When he's ready to go, he'll settle in right field," Rangers manager Ron Washington said. "If we don't get that natural center fielder, if Milton shows he's healthy enough to roam around out there, he'll be in center field. Milton will dictate that by how he feels."

Given how prone to injury Milton has been over the course of his eight-year Major League career (which has been marred by 12 separate trips to the disabled list in the last six seasons), allowing him to play at such a physically demanding position as center field doesn't sound like the greatest idea - especially if his questionable right knee isn't going to be 100% for the better part of the season.

And as I outlined back on December 9th, it's most definitely in the best interests of the Rangers to protect their newest investment as carefully as possible. After all, there's one recurring theme to keep in mind at all times with Bradley: when he's healthy, he rakes.

Nonetheless, Washington has tentatively penciled Bradley in as the team's #4 or #5 hitter; Ron offered a speculative glimpse of the Rangers' possible 2008 batting order to Richard Durrett of the Dallas Morning News during the club's media luncheon on Friday, which goes more or less as follows:

• (LF) Frank Catalanotto - 990 AB, .299/.374/.466, 24 HR
• (2B) Ian Kinsler - 244 AB, .291/.370/.467, 10 HR
• (SS) Michael Young - 788 AB, .296/.346/.415, 16 HR
• (DH) Milton Bradley - 216 AB, .338/.447/.546, 8 HR
• (CF) Marlon Byrd - 202 AB, .233/.270/.347, 2 HR
• (3B) Hank Blalock - 230 AB, .243/.314/.400, 7 HR
• (1B) Ben Broussard - 472 AB, .239/.313/.430, 17 HR
• (RF) David Murphy - 49 AB, .347/.418/.531, 1 HR
• (C) Jarrod Saltalamacchia - 15 AB, .200/.200/.200, 0 HR

The batting line listed to the right of each player's name denotes that given player's career statistical line in that particular lineup spot; in other words, in 244 career at-bats as a #2 hitter, Kinsler has hit an impressive .291/.370/.467. This isn't intended to be viewed as a lineup evaluation tool, but rather as just a fun little exercise.

If one were to use lineup batting splits as a key determinant in selecting the Rangers' 2008 batting order, though, it would probably make the most sense to move Young to the #2 hole (.316/.363/.474 with 47 HR in 1799 AB), raise Blalock to the #5 hole (.292/.349/.478 with 22 HR in 542 AB) and drop Byrd to the #6 hole (.359/.429/.478 with 1 HR in 184 AB), with Kinsler taking over as the club's #3 hitter.

And indeed, such an arrangement might very well be more productive offensively than what Washington currently has in mind.

The Rangers released their spring training broadcast schedule on Tuesday, which includes 12 over-the-air radio broadcasts on KRLD 1080 AM in the Metroplex, seven web-exclusive MLB.com radio broadcasts, and two television broadcasts on Fox Sports Net Southwest, which are currently slated for March 22nd and 23rd against the Mariners and Giants, respectively.

According to unnamed league sources, Texas and Houston are among a group of several teams that are "aggressively pursuing" free agent right-hander Mark Prior, who was non-tendered by the Chicago Cubs on December 12th. The Cardinals, Mets and Yankees are also believed to be interested in signing Prior, who is recovering from arthroscopic shoulder surgery and is not expected to be available until mid-May at the earliest.

T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com publicly disclosed his selections for the Hall of Fame over at "Postcards from Elysian Fields" on Tuesday, and included Mark McGwire, Rich "Goose" Gossage, Andre Dawson, Tim Raines and Jack Morris on his ballot. In particular, I wanted to highlight his line of reasoning behind the inclusion of McGwire:

Yes I voted for him. Why? Basically because I'm not interested in sitting in judgment on steroids and I'm not interested in punishing people without fully knowing who else should be punished and who shouldn't.

Right on, T.R.

The Fort Worth Star-Telegram's Anthony Andro reports that the Rangers named Jim Colborn as their newly created Director of Pacific Rim Operations on Tuesday, and appointed Josh Boyd as their Manager of Professional Scouting. The club also promoted 22-year scouting veteran Mark Giegler to professional scout, and hired Scot Engler away from the Florida Marlins as a professional scout.

Finally, according to FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal, the Seattle Mariners are reportedly closing in on a deal with free agent right-hander Carlos Silva worth in excess of four years and $44 million. Neither of the most prominent Mariners blogs, Lookout Landing or U.S.S. Mariner, appear to be particularly thrilled about this prospective signing.

And far as I'm concerned, that can only be good for the Rangers.

Sullivan's Latest Rangers Mailbag; Loe Ready For Spring Training

I've got nothing.

Well, except for one semi-hot sports opinion: Cowboys safety Roy Williams should have been suspended longer than just one game for his cheap "horse collar" tackle on Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb during Sunday afternoon's affair at Texas Stadium.

What a joke of a player he is.

T.R. Sullivan released the latest edition of his MLB.com mailbag on Monday morning, and shockingly enough, there's only one absurd fan-engineered trade proposal included this time!

What are the chances of the Rangers going after the likes of Andrew Miller, who was recently traded to Florida? What if we traded Padilla to the Marlins for Miller and Carlos Martinez or Hanley Ramirez? I really think we need to dump Padilla and this seems like a good trade.

-- Chris J., Norman, Okla.

If general manager Jon Daniels can swing that trade, then he'll be Executive of the Year and the Marlins will be contracted.

Sullivan addressed several other trade and free agent possibilities drummed up by his readers, including Mark Prior, Eric Bedard, Johan Santana, Shannon Stewart, Preston Wilson (?!), Kris Benson, Carlos Silva, Josh Hamilton, and Lance Berkman. Needless to say, all of those ideas are major long shots to actually happen for the Rangers at best.

T.R. also mentioned that outfielders Jason Botts and Nelson Cruz will be required to win a spot in spring training if they are to make the Rangers' 25-man roster, which Lone Star Ball's Adam Morris issued an excellent retort to:

I can't figure out what 30-40 plate appearances in exhibition games in March is going to tell the Rangers that they don't already know about these guys. Botts has been in the system since Doug Melvin was here, Cruz has been here since August of 2006, and they have extensive track records in the minors, along with some major league ABs. I don't see how anything this spring should carry that much weight.

That's a pretty accurate assessment of the situation; furthermore, given that spring training statistics are so rarely indicative of regular season performance, it seems rather silly to allow such a crucial roster dilemma to be resolved on the basis of a trivial sample size of March at-bats in Surprise.

Going back momentarily to yesterday's piece on the Texas 40-man roster conundrum, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News appears to be echoing the increasingly popular sentiment that Nelson Cruz is likely the odd man out. Grant also hypothesizes that a roster move could be consummated this afternoon - stay tuned.

There's one more item in Sullivan's mailbag which deserves further attention:

Why don't the Rangers try to put Kinsler in center field? I think he would be a great center fielder with his speed, range and arm.

-- Fernando R., Dallas

That might be a thought in a year or two, depending how fast German Duran comes in the Minor Leagues. But you don't switch guys like Kinsler or Michael Young unless it's a pressing need and there is a better alternative at their current position.

Ian Kinsler, for the record, has never played a single professional baseball game in the outfield. Although he may well have the speed and range necessary to cover Rangers Ballpark in Arlington's vast center field expanse, it strikes me as dangerous to begin considering a permanent move for Kinsler - especially when he's just now on the verge of defensively mastering his current position on the baseball diamond.

Baseball Prospectus's Christina Kahrl touched on the Rangers' recent flurry of roster moves in her latest "Transaction Analysis" column on Monday:

By signing Bradley, they found a better outfielder than Brad Wilkerson to give them some lefty sock, although they're still running the risk of employing a particularly fragile player in a key offensive role. Bradley's their instant headliner in a group that has Nelson Cruz, Frank Catalanotto, Jason Botts, Marlon Byrd, and David Murphy all wrestling for playing time in the outfield and at DH.

[...]

Then there's the solution at first base, as Jon Daniels effectively slapped together the equivalent of a Quonset hut on the spot by picking up both Shelton and Broussard. Maybe that winds up as a platoon, and maybe one of them nicks some playing time at DH from Botts. It isn't hard to envision either of them slugging .450 or better in regular playing time.

[...]

Finally, there's essentially exchanging Otsuka and Fukumori. This might strike some people as strange, because it might seem like Otsuka only just got here, but his arm's enough of a risk that it deterred potential trading partners, and he's going to be going into his age-36 season next spring. Fukumori arrives with questions about his elbow, but at 31, he's younger, and he arrives with some closing experience after rattling around the rosters of Yokohama, Kintetsu, and most recently Rakuten.

Anthony Andro of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports that right-hander Kameron Loe, who was shut down through the final month of the 2007 season with right elbow soreness and had arthroscopic surgery performed on said elbow on October 4th, has pronounced himself ready to go for 2008:

"It feels great," Loe said. "After any injury or surgery, you're a little nervous to see how it feels. But it's real strong and feels good. This is the best shape I've been in."

Loe, who has just resumed throwing within the last two weeks, hopes to snag a rotation spot coming out of spring training. That doesn't seem particularly likely, given that the organization is more or less dead set on their starting five going into spring training.

But if there's one thing that we've learned to be a certainty about the Texas Rangers over the years, it's that five is never enough. As such, don't be surprised if the "Snake," who compiled a 5.36 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 136 IP last season, ends up making at least 10 starts for the Rangers in 2008.

Speaking of that, Kameron joined third baseman Travis Metcalf and right-hander Kevin Millwood, as well as a trio of assorted Rangers broadcasters (Tom Grieve, Victor Rojas and Eleno Ornelas), in helping to serve a Spring Creek Barbeque dinner to approximately 75 men, women and children at the Arlington Life Shelter on Monday night. Very cool gesture on their parts.

And finally, if you're looking for a last minute gift for a Metroplex sports fan on your Christmas shopping list, make sure to check out "The Best Dallas-Fort Worth Sports Arguments: The 100 Most Controversial, Debatable Questions for Die-Hard Fans." You can learn more about the book from the publisher's official website, or order direct from Amazon.com.

Authored by veteran Dallas sportswriter Jaime Aron, this latest 288-page installment to the popular Sports Argument book series focuses on the 100 most debatable controversies in local sports, including 15 that prominently spotlight the Rangers. It's a book that receives my highest recommendation - there really is something here for everybody.

Monday Morning Rangers Notes

In just my fourth entry here at Baseball Time in Arlington back on February 26th, I took an in-depth look at outfielder Nelson Cruz, and what kind of production we might be able to expect from him during the 2007 season.

Among other things, I cited Nelson's strong offensive minor league r�sum� to that point in his career, as well as his great defensive potential in right field, and labeled him as a "five-tool talent" that would become a quality right fielder for Texas - assuming, of course, that his progress as a professional ballplayer didn't stall out, and that he didn't run into any major developmental road bumps.

Now slightly less than ten months later, Cruz's days in Arlington may be numbered.

The Texas Rangers are facing a rather interesting roster conundrum that requires a hasty resolution, as the additions of outfielder Milton Bradley, first baseman Ben Broussard and right-hander Kazuo Fukumori to the organization have nudged the club's 40-man roster to 41 players. Obviously, somebody will have to be designated for assignment - perhaps as soon as Monday.

That somebody could be Nelson Cruz, who is still reeling from a miserable .235/.287/.324 campaign (-10.8 VORP) at the plate, compiled over a 307 AB stint for the Rangers in 2007. Back on October 7th, I wrote the following on Cruz as part of my Rangers ZiPS projection analysis:

Good grief. Cruz opened up 2007 as the Rangers� starting right fielder, but a horrific .188/.245/.306 line in 144 AB earned him a demotion to AAA. After hitting .352/.428/.698 with 15 HR in 162 AB, Cruz was recalled on July 28th, and quickly made his presence felt, jacking three home runs in his first three games back.

Unfortunately, the party had to end sometime. Cruz ended up batting just .276/.324/.454 overall in his final 163 AB stint of the season. Nelson acquired a new, more open batting stance during his duration in the minors, but he remains extremely vulnerable to major league quality breaking pitches, raising huge questions as to whether or not he can ever carve out a regular job in the big leagues.

With the emergence of David Murphy, Marlon Byrd and others, Cruz is running out of time and opportunities.

All of the above remains true more than two months later, only now with an added twist: though it remains doubtful that Milton Bradley will be able to play in the outfield by the time Opening Day rolls around, his presence only further exacerbates an increasingly problematic roster dilemma for Texas.

Frank Catalanotto, Marlon Byrd and David Murphy all figure to receive major shares of playing time between left field and center field in 2008, while first base is currently covered by a tentative platoon consisting of Ben Broussard and Chris Shelton.

The Rangers could opt to roll with either 12 or 13 pitchers out of spring training (they began with just 12 last April), but even if the organization decides to carry an extra positional player, there's only room for one of either Cruz or outfielder Jason Botts.

Call it gut instinct, but I don't see Jon Daniels and company cutting ties with Botts just yet. Although his first extended audition in the Texas lineup between August and September could have admittedly gone a whole lot better (.240/.326/.335 and a -4.0 VORP in 167 AB), the Rangers are probably envisioning a mid-season lineup consisting of Catalanotto in LF, Murphy/Byrd in CF, and Bradley in RF, with Botts serving as the team's semi-regular DH.

Keeping that in mind, Cruz, who is already out of options, could be the Rangers' first choice to go - though Botts and even Shelton, both of whom are also out of options, remain in some degree of danger. Other candidates that may be up for removal from the 40-man roster include right-handers Robinson Tejeda, Scott Feldman and the ever injury-prone Josh Rupe, as well as left-hander Bill White.

According to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan, the Rangers had a preliminary agreement in place that would have sent recently non-tendered right-hander Akinori Otsuka to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for first baseman Chris Carter, but the deal was nixed after the White Sox conducted a thorough examination of Otsuka's medical reports. Ouch.

Sullivan also notes that the agent of free agent right-hander Jason Jennings, Casey Close, is telling clubs that his client will be at full strength come Opening Day, and isn't interested in a incentive-laden "make-good" one-year deal to help rebuild his value.

With Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News labeling Texas as "long shots" to snag free agent right-hander Mark Prior, who was also non-tendered last week, it's beginning to appear that, barring a short-term contract with somebody like Bartolo Colon, the Rangers are content with the idea of going into 2008 with a starting rotation consisting of Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Brandon McCarthy, Kason Gabbard and Edinson Volquez:

"We've got a lot of guys that have the ability to pitch up here," Daniels said. "I think this is a year for us to find out about some of these guys and give them an opportunity, and we're going to do that."

T.R. does conclude by hinting at the possibility of a deal being struck with another veteran reliever, such as free agent left-hander Eddie Guardado, to help shore up the bullpen.

Beyond that, however, the Rangers look to be more or less finished with their free agent Christmas shopping.

Breaking Down Fukumori; Rangers Sign Alfonzo

I'm done with the Mitchell Report.

Newly acquired Japanese relief pitcher Kazuo Fukumori was introduced to various members of the vast Texas Rangers' media brigade during a clubhouse press conference early Friday afternoon, which was held by the organization to formally announce the signing of the 31-year-old right-hander to a two year, $3 million contract.

Numerous delegates of the Japanese media contingent were also present at the gathering, during the course of which it was not only revealed that Fukumori goes simply by "Kaz," but also that he is learning English - though he refrained from demonstrating his burgeoning grasp of the language during the press conference, as he spoke exclusively through his interpretors.

According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, the deal includes a club option for 2010 worth an undisclosed sum of money, which I strongly suspect would fall somewhere between $2 million and $3 million. Additionally, Fukumori's contract includes a protective clause, which allows the Rangers to convert it into a one-year deal with a club option if Kaz spends 30 days or more on the disabled list next year.

Should that scenario come to pass, and should the Rangers decide not to pick up his club option, Fukumori would receive a $200,000 buyout; that would limit the team's financial commitment to $1.6 million over one season, at most. That means Kaz is set to fetch $1.4 million in 2008 and $1.6 million in 2009, respectively.

General manager Jon Daniels views the signing not just as an upgrade to the bullpen, but also as a key indicator that the organization is serious about becoming more heavily involved in foreign talent markets, including Asia and Latin America:

"We want to establish ourselves as a force in international scouting," general manager Jon Daniels said at a news conference Friday to announce the two-year deal. "We made a renewed commitment to Latin America and the Caribbean a couple of years ago, and we are trying to do the same in the Pacific Rim."

Though Fukumori's stuff is less than overpowering, he appears to have garnered quite a reputation in Japan as a hard-nosed deception artist, capable of shutting down opposing batters in key situations:

"What really stood out was his makeup," Daniels said. "He's got the right temperament for big situations. He made it clear to us that he wants to prove himself over here. I got the sense in talking to him that he will not back down from any challenge."

[...]

Through a translator, Fukumori said: "Everybody depended on me to win games over there. That made me fearless."

His arsenal of pitches, as described by Evan Grant, appears to deviate slightly from the scouting report presented by John Brooks of the East Windup Chronicle earlier this week. Though both sources agree that his fastball runs anywhere from 88-91 MPH with good movement, Grant notes that Fukumori throws a forkball, while Brooks asserts that he possesses a "shuuto," a knuckle curve and a slider. Perhaps he has all of the above in his pitching repertoire.

As an interesting side-plot to all of this, the Rangers seem to believe that Kaz could provide left-hander C.J. Wilson with some stiff competition for the closer's job in spring training; granted, C.J. appears to be in the driver's seat in that regard, and will in all likelihood be the team's closer come Opening Day. If you thought the comfort in holding that knowledge would prevent the outspoken southpaw from piping up, however, you're dead wrong:

"I had the best success ratio of converted saves last year, so that's what I'm feeling good about," Wilson said. "Plus, mentally, I think the front office and the coaches understand that I've got one of those unique, weird, hair-on-fire, heavy-metal personalities, and that I enjoy the lunacy of being in the bullpen and being a closer."

Hmm, I could have done without the "hair on fire" reference - we all know how well that worked out for Einar Diaz.

Curiously enough, Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory's Transaction Oracle more or less hates the Fukumori signing, with his ZiPS projections pegging Kaz for an ERA of around 5.10 next year. Fukumori recorded a lifetime 1.38 WHIP and 3.30 BB/9 ratio in 662 innings of work in Japan, which does raise some legitimate questions about just how good his command and mound presence are.

Only time will tell on whether or not those concerns will bear themselves out. This still strikes me as a low-risk signing that could pay some attractive dividends for Texas, especially as American League hitters attempt to adjust to Fukumori's unfamiliar pitching style next season.

The Fukumori acquisition wasn't the only roster move executed by the Rangers on Friday, as former All-Star infielder Edgardo Alfonzo was inked by the club to a minor league deal with an invitation to big league spring training.

Alfonzo, 34, hit just .266/.349/.365 with 5 HR in 384 AB for the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League in 2007. A strong performance in Venezuela this winter (.345/.414/.525 in 139 AB) appears to have caught the eye of the front office, but Alfonzo hasn't even been a mediocre Major League player since perhaps 2004, when he hit .289/.350/.407 with 11 HR in 519 AB for the San Francisco Giants.

Edgardo's advanced age and poor range suggest that he is limited strictly to first and third base at this point in his career - both of which are positions that the Rangers are fairly deep at, with a platoon situation already rolling at first base between Ben Broussard and Chris Shelton, and with Travis Metcalf already a serviceable backup for Hank Blalock at third base.

Don't fret too much over this signing, because the odds of Alfonzo breaking camp with Texas next spring are very, very low.

Make sure to check out Jeff Moeller's excellent MLBPlayers.com interview with C.J. Wilson, which delves into the background behind his Southern California upbringing, his love for surfing and technology, and more.

There's also a very special mention of "The Snake" - though that's not a reference to Wilson's roommate, right-hander Kameron Loe, or local radio sports personality Corby Davidson, but rather toward Loe's seven-foot Columbian red-tailed boa constrictor, which is affectionately named "Angel."

Michael Hindman's latest "Prospect Previews" segment is online over at "Rangers Farm Report," which highlights right-hander Wilmer Font as the organization's 9th best pitching prospect. Font doesn't turn 18 until May 24th, but notched 12.02 strikeouts per nine innings for the Rangers' Arizona Rookie League squad in 2007, good for second in the league.

Font's fastball reportedly sits at 95 MPH with regularity, and can be dialed up to 98 MPH when needed, which the 6'4", 210 pound currently pairs with an improving changeup and raw breaking ball. Needless to say, Font's devastating velocity alone could make him a deadly late-inning weapon for Texas in three to four years - or a front-line starter, if enough breaks fall the Rangers' way.

The same good fortune unfortunately cannot be said for Font's rookie league teammate, 19-year-old shortstop Julio Gonzalez, who has received a 50-game suspension from the Office of the Commissioner of Baseball for testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance. Gonzalez, who hit .253/.337/.304 in 79 AB for the AZL Rangers in 2007, will serve his suspension at the onset of the 2008 season.

Japanese right-hander Hiroki Kuroda has agreed to terms on a three year, $35.2 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Kuroda was reportedly a free agent target of the Rangers earlier in the winter, but his price tag presumably exceeded what the club was willing to spend on a 33-year-old pitcher that profiles as a middle of the rotation starter, at best.

Much more on Sunday, including thoughts on the Rangers' offense and starting rotation going forward - and the possibility of outfielder Nelson Cruz permanently departing from the organization.

Mitchell Report Released; Fukumori Signs With Rangers

With the vast majority of the baseball world up in arms over Thursday's release of the bombshell Mitchell Report, I'm already finding myself coming down with a nasty case of tiredhead over the non-stop media coverage of Major League Baseball's performance-enhancing drug "scandal."

Perhaps I've just grown incredibly cynical over the last few years in witnessing numerous players coming under the PED gun, some of whom I practically idolized growing up (Juan Gonzalez and Rafael Palmeiro) - and some of whom I absolutely detest to this very day (Barry Bonds and Jason Giambi, for starters).

But quite frankly, it has gotten to the point for me where I could discover that one of my favorite players had been nailed for steroid usage, and it really wouldn't shock, anger or disappoint me to any great degree, beyond the obligatory 50-game suspension. Nor, for that matter, would it prevent me from continuing to cheer them on and root for their continued success on the field.

I simply don't care.

Does that make me a bad baseball fan? That's for you to decide. But I do know that I'm far from alone in holding this stance toward the entire performance-enhancing drugs in sports debate, an area which the national media has generally turned a blind eye to where other sports, such as the National Football League, are concerned.

Hypocrisy at its finest, folks.

Although no current Rangers were included in the Mitchell Report (available for viewing in both PDF and HTML format), several prominent ex-Rangers did find their names buried within the 409-page monstrosity, including the aforementioned Juan Gonzalez and Rafael Palmeiro, free agent infielder Jerry Hairston, right-handers Kevin Brown (retired) and Eric Gagne, and outfielders Gary Matthews Jr. and Chad Allen. OK, so not all of them are prominent - sue me.

Tim MacMahon of the Dallas Morning News supplied specific page numbers referencing all of the above listed players and more over at the redesigned "Sportsday Texas Rangers Blog," while the Fort Worth Star-Telegram's Anthony Andro has compiled a ledger of some of the more recent players listed in the Mitchell Report with ties to the Texas Rangers.

For those of you looking for a complete list of every past and current player named, complete with page citations, take a look at Maury Brown's fantastic and in-depth compilation over at "The Biz of Baseball."

Brown, coincidentally, published a brief but scathingly honest column regarding Major League Baseball's handling of the Mitchell Report that deserves much more attention than it's currently receiving:

After reading through a large part of the Mitchell Report today, I have come away with some conclusions:

1) A large majority of it is based currently upon nothing more than hearsay. I understand that Mitchell had no power of subpoena, but if you�re going to hang your hat on something, at least don�t make the majority of it based upon the Radomski testimony.

2) I keep reading and looking for the nugget. The recommendations are all good and well, but where are the examples of failure in the system? Yes, it is referenced, but if Mitchell could not investigate the players via the power of subpoena, he could have expended some energy in looking at the cause more closely. Where are those quotes? Where is that interview material?

[...]

Well, Commissioner Selig, thanks for standing up there and taking accountability for this fine mess that you and the MLBPA got us into. Thanks, also, for commissioning a report that does nothing more than create a mountain of lawsuits, and grievances. Sadly, you failed to look in the mirror, and do what you asked of the players: �Come clean. Just tells us the truth, and all will be fine. We just want your cooperation.�

The wretched, galling truth is, the whole stack of paper does nothing more than point fingers at the players, and MLBPA, and create one heck of a great time when the current labor agreement expires. Or, you could get your wish and open up the current agreement (again) and get into it now.

Mitchell whitewashed how we got to the problem in favor of offering solutions that bode well politically for management, while placing no blame on those watching the store. And, the pablum of the statement released adds to the damning incident.

But, hey, you got a nice bit of something to stand on the soapbox when you stuck the "Partnership for a Drug Free America PR" in. "Steroid use among youngsters is down. I�m proud of the role Major League Baseball has played in contributing to this decline." Are you serious? You created the monster in the first place.

Oh, and one more thing� You went to a press conference on the Report without reading it? You did have three days. Maybe it wasn�t that important to get to the heart of the matter knowing you were off the hook.

Beautiful. I couldn't have summed it up any better myself.

Additionally, the DMN's Tim Cowlishaw weighed in on Roger Clemens' inclusion in the report on Thursday afternoon, and T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com took an extensive look at the situation as well, complete with quotes from Rangers team management and player personnel. Meanwhile, the FWST's Jennifer Floyd Engel released a rather odd opinion piece that doesn't seem to take a concrete stance one way or the other.

But enough of this.

Texas finalized a two year, $3 million contract with Japanese reliever Kazuo Fukumori on Thursday night, throwing the 31-year-old right-hander into an increasingly convoluted mix of potential closers for the Rangers in 2008. According to Evan Grant of the DMN, the deal also includes a club option for 2010.

Although left-hander C.J. Wilson currently appears to have an inside track on the job, right-hander Joaquin Benoit and the newly acquired Fukumori should provide some relatively stiff competition for the blue-gloved lefty:

"Kaz is a guy who has a chance to really help our 'pen," Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said. "He's got the right makeup for it and is very motivated to prove himself here in the States."

The Rangers have scheduled a 2:00 PM CST press conference on Friday to formally announce the signing of Fukumori.

And finally, T.R. Sullivan ran through some miscellaneous Rangers notes on Thursday at "Postcards from Elysian Fields," during the course of which he suggested that Texas might make a run at free agent right-hander Jason Jennings on a one-year deal for starting rotation depth.

Sullivan also notes that outfielders Nelson Cruz and Jason Botts, who are both out of options, will not be guaranteed 25-man roster spots next spring, and ends by invoking an interesting comparison between newly acquired first baseman Ben Broussard and recently departed free agent first baseman Brad Wilkerson.

Only two months until Texas pitchers and catchers report to spring training in Surprise, Arizona.

NEWSFLASH: Rangers Acquire Broussard; Otsuka Non-Tendered

Less than 24 hours after learning that the Texas Rangers had lost the Kosuke Fukudome sweepstakes to the upstart Chicago Cubs, general manager Jon Daniels pulled the trigger on two separate roster moves as Wednesday evening's 11 PM CST non-tender deadline drew near.

While one of those moves was hinted at by the organization for what seemed like weeks on end, and thus came as no great surprise, the other appears to have sent shock waves reverberating down throughout the very core of the Rangers' fanbase.

According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, the Texas Rangers have acquired first baseman Ben Broussard from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for minor league infielder Tug Hulett, and have non-tendered veteran right-hander Akinori Otsuka, thereby rendering him a free agent.

Wow.

In the days leading up to Major League Baseball's winter meetings, multiple reports out of the Metroplex's local media hub indicated that the Rangers were holding off from making a splash in the winter's free agent market at first base until baseball's non-tender deadline on December 12th. Though the club had expressed varying degrees of interest in the likes of Mike Lamb and Sean Casey, Broussard appeared to be the first baseman that most enamored the Texas brain trust.

A native of Beaumont, Texas and a current resident of Austin, Broussard hit an uninspiring .275/.330/.404 with 7 HR in 240 AB of part-time duty for the Mariners in 2007, good for an equally dull .257 EqA. Just in case you're wondering: no, that's not very far above the dreaded replacement-level threshold.

One year previous, however, the 31-year-old lefty delivered a much more palatable batting line of .289/.331/.484, and slugged 21 HR in 432 AB - the first 268 of which came in Cleveland, as Broussard was dealt in late July 2006 to the Mariners for outfielder Shin-Soo Choo and left-hander Shawn Nottingham, the latter of whom was designated as a player to be named later.

Though Broussard, admittedly, doesn't do a whole lot for me, there is value to be found here. A lifetime .285/.401/.524 hitter in the minor leagues, Ben appears to be best suited as a platoon player - in 1706 career big league AB against right-handed pitching, Broussard has hit .275/.336/.470. Not exactly league-average offensive production from a first baseman, but not horribly cringe-inducing either.

And with the recent acquisition of first baseman Chris Shelton from the Detroit Tigers, it now appears that the Rangers' first base conundrum has, momentarily at least, been solved.

Although Shelton is actually a better hitter for his career against right-handers (.286/.342/.498 in 588 AB vs. RHP, compared to just .269/.363/.420 in 219 AB vs. LHP), MLB.com's Ken Daley says that he'll likely split time at first base with Broussard, with Frank Catalanotto getting spot duty at the position when not playing in the outfield or serving as the team's designated hitter.

However, Jon Daniels hinted at the possibility of Broussard getting an opportunity to win a full-time role with the club in 2008:

"We look at him as having a chance to play a more important role on our team," Daniels said. "He can play first, he can also play left field or DH. His versatility does give us some options, depending on how the rest of the offseason goes. But he is, most likely, going to end up playing first base quite a bit."

Hmmph. The Hardball Times' RZR (Revised Zone Rating) on Broussard suggests that he's at least league-average defensively at first base (and perhaps even a tad over), but I do have to question if he has enough range to cover a corner outfield spot - or for that matter, would even be needed in such a role, given that Texas has Milton Bradley, Jason Botts, Nelson Cruz, David Murphy, Marlon Byrd and the aforementioned Frank Catalanotto all vying for outfield playing time already.

Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, eager to get his hands on anything he could for his soon to be non-tendered first baseman, agreed to take on Triple-A Oklahoma infielder Tug Hulett (or as he's more affectionately known in some circles, "Tuglett") in exchange for the departing Broussard.

Hulett, 24, batted .273/.357/.402 with 11 HR in 517 AB for the Redhawks in 2007. The term "organizational fodder" comes to mind here, as the chances of Hulett ever panning out into anything more than a utility infielder appear to be quite remote, at best. Nonetheless, he's better than what Seattle would have gotten had they actually gone through with non-tendering Broussard, which is to say nothing.

To make room for Broussard on the 40-man roster, outfielder Nick Gorneault was designated for assignment - less than two months after he was claimed off waivers from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Given the current organizational logjam in the outfield, Gorneault didn't exactly figure into the Rangers' plans anyway; according to Jamey Newberg, Texas will be able to outright him to the minors if he clears waivers without him having the option of declining his assignment.

Broussard, who is entering his final year of salary arbitration, is set to make somewhere in the range of $4.5 million to $5 million next year. That stipend closely coincides with the amount of money that Aki Otsuka was set to make in his second year of salary arbitration with the Rangers in 2008 - or at least, that is, until the organization made the stunning decision late Wednesday night to sever ties with their one-time closer.

The decision to non-tender Otsuka, not surprisingly, was based primarily off of his questionable health status going forward, and the team's unwillingness to commit such a large sum of money to a pitcher with so much attached uncertainty:

"We just weren't comfortable not having seen him on the mound for several months," Daniels said. "We talked about a shared risk deal, but the financial information we got just didn't make much sense. All the reports [about Otsuka's health] have been positive, but the bottom line is he hasn't thrown for a number of months, and there was real concern."

[...]

"We went through all of our options," Daniels said, "and ultimately decided the risk was more than we felt comfortable with for what it would have cost to retain him."

Very strange, considering that the Rangers didn't appear to have any reservations toward throwing $5 million in the general direction of Milton Bradley, a player who may be just as large of a health risk (and other risks, for that matter) going forward as Otsuka.

Nonetheless, it appears that Aki is gone for good; he's free to negotiate with all 30 Major League teams, but Jon Daniels admitted on Wednesday that the odds of an agreement being struck with the 35-year-old veteran were rather poor:

"I have certainly left it open with his agent that we could talk again," Daniels said, "but I'm not necessarily optimistic that it could work out."

While Aki's immediate baseball future appears to be up in the air, I can't help but wonder how deliciously ironic it would be if Otsuka were to return to the franchise that he so lovingly endorsed last week to his fellow countryman, Kosuke Fukudome.

That's not intended as a condemnation of Aki or his character; far from it, in fact. He gave the Rangers 92 quality relief innings over the last two years, and incorporated a certain unbridled enthusiasm into his work on the mound that never failed to pump me up, in one way or another. I'll miss him.

But with Otsuka's departure from the organization, the Rangers now have nothing left to show for the disastrous January 6th, 2006 trade that shipped first baseman Adrian Gonzalez (.282/.347/.502 with 30 HR in 646 AB last season) and Highland Park right-hander Chris Young (9-8 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 173 IP last season) to the San Diego Padres. Brutal.

On a brighter note, Milton Bradley passed his physical on Wednesday, finalizing his one year, $5 million deal with the Rangers. Doctors reportedly assured the team that his torn knee ligaments were healing properly, and the club hopes to have him available in some capacity in April.

According to the East Windup Chronicle, Japan's Nikkan Sports newspaper is reporting that the Rangers have agreed to terms on a two year, $3 million contract with Japanese reliever Kazuo Fukumori. The 31-year-old right-hander, who was "on the verge" of signing with Texas on Wednesday morning, spent the day in Arlington undergoing a physical exam with the club.

You know, when I made this statement on Wednesday morning...

With the signing of Fukumori appearing to be imminent, I do have to question if this move was purely driven by an innocent desire on the part of GM Jon Daniels to improve next year�s bullpen - or, in fact, was triggered by something more sinister.

Perhaps veteran right-hander Akinori Otsuka�s rehabilitation effort isn�t going quite as well as we�ve been led to believe?

...hardly did I suspect that it would become prophetic.

Rangers Close On Fukumori?

Update: FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal is reporting that Texas has agreed to terms on a two year, $3 million contract with Fukumori. No word yet on who will be removed from the 40-man roster to make room for his addition, but left-hander Bill White or right-hander Scott Feldman might be among the most likely roster causalities.

* * * * *

Per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, the Texas Rangers are close to reaching a preliminary agreement with free agent Japanese right-hander Kazuo Fukumori, a 31-year-old reliever who pitched for the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles last season.

A 6'0", 175 pound deception artist, Fukumori racked up 17 saves and compiled a 4-2 record with a 4.75 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in 36 innings during an injury-shortened 2007 campaign. One year prior, Fukumori collected 21 saves (a career high) and went 0-3, but recorded a stellar 2.17 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 55 strikeouts in 58 innings.

It is unclear what the financial terms of a contract might look like at this point, but Fukumori and his agent, Alan Nero (who also represents Japanese imports So Taguchi, Kenji Johjima and Akinori Iwamura), are believed to be seeking at least a two-year deal.

Courtesy of the East Windup Chronicle, here's a brief scouting report on Fukumori, as well as a YouTube video showing the Japanese hurler in action:

Kazuo Fukumori drew a few raised eyebrows when he announced he would challenge the major leagues and opt for free agency following the 2007 season. The past year was a frustrating one for Fukumori, as he suffered a season ending right (throwing) elbow in late July. The injury had troubled him for much of the year, making it difficult to put much stock in his 2007 numbers.

Problem is, this has been a pattern throughout Fukumori�s career. He�s always been a sought after talent, but has now undergone two major elbow injuries that both required surgery. Still, when he�s managed to stay healthy he�s been solid, often verging on excellence, which is why he�s now able to draw interest from major league clubs. He throws a good variety of pitches, including a shuuto (like a reverse slider), a slider and a knuckle curve, that he has decent control with. Most appealing is his fastball, which despite topping out in the low 90s, has a lot of movement and often tails in toward right-handed batters (as he illustrates in the video above).

[...]

He travelled to the U.S. in early November to have his elbow checked, and was given a clean bill of health.

With the signing of Fukumori appearing to be imminent, I do have to question if this move was purely driven by an innocent desire on the part of GM Jon Daniels to improve next year's bullpen - or, in fact, was triggered by something more sinister.

Perhaps veteran right-hander Akinori Otsuka's rehabilitation effort isn't going quite as well as we've been led to believe?