Your beloved Texas Rangers square off against the San Diego Padres in Peoria, Arizona at 9:05 PM CST this evening, marking the 13th of 31 games on the Rangers' 2008 spring exhibition schedule.
It doesn't take a math genius to realize that equates to roughly 40% of the Rangers' spring training games now being officially in the books - still an infinitesimally small sample size, to be certain, but worthy of a closer examination.
Though we may not yet be able to definitively project the winners of many of the spring battles currently being fought in camp, certain players are beginning to stand out from the rest of their peers. We're starting to approach that point where the innings become just a bit more meaningful, the at-bats just a bit more fierce, and the clubhouse just a bit more tense.
Granted, plenty of time remains for most, if not all, of these competitions to be turned upside down - but hey, that doesn't mean we can't at least have fun trying to forecast the winners, right?
Catcher | Available Spots: Two
Gerald Laird: 16 AB, .250/.250/.500, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 0 BB, 2 K
Adam Melhuse: 10 AB, .300/.417/.300, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K
J. Saltalamacchia: 14 AB, .214/.267/.571, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 4 K
Taylor Teagarden: 3 AB, .667/.750/1.667, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 0 BB, 0 K
Notes: Ah yes, the "open" competition for the starting catcher job. Laird has received early marks for his "game-calling" ability and handling of the pitching staff, while Saltalamacchia, comparatively, seems to have done little behind the plate thus far defensively to give him a leg up over Laird. Additionally, Gerald has cut down three of five would-be basestealers this spring, while Jarrod has gunned down just one of three.
Manager Ron Washington told MLB.com this past weekend that he would have a better idea of which way he wanted to go, speaking purely in terms of the catching situation, by March 14th. As of right now, Laird is the unequivocal front-runner; it's remains unclear as to whether or not the loser of the battle would break camp as a Ranger regardless, or if they would head down to Triple-A Oklahoma to begin the year.
Indeed, the answer to that question appears to be reliant upon the resolution. If Saltalamacchia rallies to win the job, Laird would probably serve (unhappily) as his backup; Texas could also seek a trade partner. Conversely, Laird's acquisition of the job would probably relegate Saltalamacchia back to Oklahoma, as the club would almost certainly want their 22-year-old backstop playing everyday and further honing his plate patience, pitch recognition and defensive skills.
In the latter scenario, veteran backstop Adam Melhuse (who really has no arm to speak of, nor a bat to match, but is a long-time favorite of Washington's dating back to their days in Oakland) might serve as Laird's backup through the first several months of the season, until such time arrives when the club decides that Saltalamacchia is ready to reassume his catching duties at the big league level - or until Laird falters miserably, whichever happens to come first.
MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan suggested last Friday that the idea of top catching prospect Taylor Teagarden making the team as the backup catcher "might be batted around by club officials." However, that appears to be more wishful thinking than anything els.
Prognosis: Laird breaks camp as the starting catcher, with Melhuse serving as his backup, Saltalamacchia heading to Oklahoma to begin the year and Teagarden returning to Double-A Frisco. With the latter two pressing closer and closer to the majors, Laird is going to have to be dealt sooner rather than later - and a strong start to the 2008 season might be just the leverage that general manager Jon Daniels needs to make a trade happen.
Worst Case Scenario: Laird evolves into a Washington favorite and sticks as the starting catcher through the better half of the season on the strength of his defense, complete with his usual sub-replacement level offensive production. Texas fans march upon Rangers Ballpark in Arlington in angry protest, complete with torches and pitchforks.
First Base/Outfield | Available Spots: Two
Jason Botts: 18 AB: .389/.421/.556, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K
Nelson Cruz: 21 AB, .190/.227/.238, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 6 K
Kevin Mench: 19 AB, .263/.391/.632, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 4 BB, 1 K
David Murphy: 18 AB, .389/.368/.667, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0 BB, 2 K
Chris Shelton: 11 AB, .182/.250/.273, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K
Notes: Ugh, don't make me talk about this anymore.
This looks to be boiling down to a pure competition between Jason Botts and Kevin Mench for one spot, as Nelson Cruz has failed to do much of anything (despite leading the club in spring at-bats), and Chris Shelton will almost certainly be shipped to Oklahoma as a result of Washington's horribly misguided decision to allow Ben Broussard, a lifetime .227/.290/.399 Major League hitter in 387 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, to play everyday at first base.
David Murphy, meanwhile, looks to be a cinch for the coveted fourth outfielder job. Just don't expect him to turn into the second coming of Rusty Greer anytime soon.
Prognosis: Cruz is designated for assignment before Opening Day and dealt for minimal return, as he is out of minor league options. Murphy makes the club and Shelton heads to the minors as insurance, while Kevin Mench and Jason Botts duel to the final day of spring training.
Washington has expressed early favoritism towards Mench, rendering him the front-runner for the last spot - despite the fact that Botts, like Cruz, is out of minor league options. Look for Daniels to lobby heavily for Botts; this could develop into a major point of contention between manager and general manager.
Worst Case Scenario: Botts and Cruz are axed in favor of the enigmatic Mench, and go on to finally unlock their untapped potential in rival organizations. Mench's offensive production continues to trend downward, leading to his release by mid-summer, if not sooner. Murphy falls back down to earth (think .750 OPS), crushing the unrealistic hopes of many delusional Ranger fans, while Broussard notches an OPS against southpaws somewhere around the .650 mark, helping to flatten his already mediocre trade value.
Utility Infielder | Available Spots: One
Edgardo Alfonzo: 12 AB, .333/.385/.333, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K
German Duran: 13 AB, .154/.250/.231, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 6 K
Ryan Roberts: 16 AB, .438/.450/.688, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K
Ramon Vazquez: 18 AB, .444/.474/.444, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 0 K
Notes: To a certain degree, Ryan Roberts strikes me as the 2008 version of Matt Kata. Kata set Surprise on fire last spring, going 18-for-48 at the plate while belting a pair of homers and inducing nearly everybody (including myself) to buy into the hype. Then he batted .186/.250/.300 in 70 AB during the regular season before his designation for assignment on June 5th. Good times.
All that being said, Roberts does have a respectable offensive r�sum� to his credit (.268/.370/.445 with 74 HR in 1,880 career minor league AB), and is capable of playing every position in the infield, so there is a certain amount of intrigue present here. Still, the job appears to be Vazquez's to lose.
Prognosis: Vazquez nails down the utility infielder job - though not before staving off an inspired effort by Roberts, who will likely head back to the minors - and German Duran returns to Oklahoma to resume his duties as the Redhawks' everyday second baseman. Edgardo Alfonzo, having failed in his latest attempt to resurrect his big league career, fades back into obscurity.
Worst Case Scenario: Erm, I guess Jon Daniels could have a brief fit of insanity and trade Duran, Roberts and Vazquez away for Chan Ho Park or something.
Starting Rotation | Available Spots: Two
Kason Gabbard: 7.2 IP, 9.39 ERA, 15 H, 4 BB, 2 HR, 5 K
Matt Harrison: 4.1 IP, 6.23 ERA, 7 H, 2 BB, 0 HR, 1 K
Eric Hurley: 7.2 IP, 4.70 ERA, 6 H, 5 BB, 0 HR, 5 K
Luis Mendoza: 3.1 IP, 10.80 ERA, 4 H, 2 BB, 0 HR, 1 K
A.J. Murray: 5.0 IP, 10.80 ERA, 8 H, 5 BB, 1 HR, 4 K
Sidney Ponson: Signed March 9th, arrived in camp today
Notes: Gabbard, acquired from the Boston Red Sox last July as part of a three-player package in exchange for closer Eric Gagne, has been pounded to the tune of .429/.500/.714 by Cactus League hitting this spring. Pitching coach Mark Connor, however, attributes that lack of success to the 25-year-old southpaw working extensively on his fastball to build up strength and endurance in his pitching arm, while simultaneously underutilizing his curve. That may be so, but sooner or later results have to arrive.
Harrison and Hurley are the future of this rotation, but neither looks to be ready quite just yet. Scott Lucas noted this afternoon that Harrison's inability to induce strikeouts (despite his above-average stuff) and Hurley's inconsistent fastball command should have both heading back to Oklahoma by March 31st. Murray will likely join them.
Mendoza, despite the lackluster ERA, has flashed impressive stuff (including a consistent 90-93 MPH heater) and quality command of the strike zone this spring, making him the leading candidate to fill in for fallen right-hander Brandon McCarthy while he resides on the disabled list through the early stretch of the 2008 season. Keep a watchful eye on Sidney Ponson, however.
Prognosis: Gabbard and Mendoza open the season in the Rangers' starting rotation, while the trio of Harrison, Hurley and Murray (hey, that's kinda catchy) head to AT&T Bricktown Ballpark in Oklahoma City. Ponson doesn't show enough to make the club, strings together a few decent starts with the Redhawks, and exercises his May 1st out clause as part of his search for a new employer.
Worst Case Scenario: Sidney Ponson becomes Pedro Astacio, circa 2005. After a whirlwind finish to the spring that finds him winning the final spot in the starting rotation over Mendoza, he strings together several impressive starts, setting the baseball world ablaze with premature overreaction, before coming crashing back down to earth.
The Rangers, desperate to rekindle the lost flame, allow Ponson to spare up the starting rotation all the way through June, culminating in his release on July 1st - but not before his compiling of a 6.10 ERA over 14 starts.
And then I kill myself.
Bullpen | Available Spots: Four
Jason Davis: 4.2 IP, 9.64 ERA, 9 H, 3 BB, 1 HR, 4 K
Scott Feldman: 5.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 3 H, 2 BB, 0 HR, 3 K
Frankie Francisco: 5.1 IP, 1.69 ERA, 6 H, 1 BB, 0 HR, 0 K
Kazuo Fukumori: 5.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 4 H, 0 BB, 0 HR, 5 K
Franklyn German: 3.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 3 H, 0 BB, 0 HR, 5 K
Wes Littleton: 2.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 2 H, 0 BB, 0 HR, 1 K
Kameron Loe: 3.2 IP, 14.73 ERA, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 HR, 3 K
Elizardo Ramirez: 5.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2 H, 1 BB, 0 HR, 2 K
Josh Rupe: 4.2 IP, 7.71 ERA, 6 H, 3 BB, 1 HR, 2 K
Robinson Tejeda: 5.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 6 H, 2 BB, 1 HR, 6 K
Jamey Wright: 4.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 7 H, 3 BB, 0 HR, 1 K
Notes: C.J. Wilson, Joaquin Benoit and Eddie Guardado are all locks to make the Rangers' Opening Day seven-man bullpen unit (if healthy), which helps to explain their exclusion from this list. Fukumori and Francisco appear set to join them, though T.R. Sullivan suggests that the Rangers want to see more out of Frankie's once-devastating split-fingered fastball.
Prognosis: The aforementioned quintet makes the cut, leaving just two spots available to be divvied up between the remainder of the pack. My gut instinct tells me that Jamey Wright and Scott Feldman will make the squad, resulting in trips back to the minors or the waiver wire for everybody else.
Worst Case Scenario: Given the tumultuous and self-correcting nature of Major League bullpens, there's not much here worth getting overly worked up about, as underachieving relievers tend to be removed far more quickly than underachievers at other positions. I wouldn't be particularly pleased to see Jason Davis, Franklyn German or Elizardo Ramirez make the club, but none of the three strike me as much more than just another random guy to have lying around for depth purposes.
But boy, oh boy, just wait until the first time this bullpen costs the Rangers a game. Keep those torches and pitchforks at the ready, folks.