Sullivan: Chances Of Cliff Lee Trade Are "Less Than One Percent"

"It's fun to dream." - Huey Freeman, The Boondocks

It had long been perceived as a long shot of the highest order, as something that only a fool would spend an excess of time thinking about, but it was reinvigorated with new life this morning, as Buster Olney and friends reported that the Phillies had re-opened trade discussions on Cliff Lee, and also indicated that if any trade were to actually materialize, the Rangers would be the likeliest taker at the front of the line.

Any legitimate hope of a Lee-to-Texas deal actualizing within the next 20-something hours, though, appears to have dissipated as quickly as it materialized, as MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan reported during the 3:00 p.m. CDT hour that the likelihood of Lee returning to Texas had dipped below "one percent," and ESPN.com's Jayson Stark is reporting that a Lee-to-Texas trade "is not going to happen," as the talks between the clubs have "all but ended." Olney characterized the Lee trade situation as "complicated, multi-layered, [and] better for [the] off-season."

This was a fun rumor to dream on, I think, as there is still tremendous love and appreciation for Lee within the Rangers' fan base, and Lee is still a very good pitcher with an elite pedigree who would have given the Rangers a measurable boost both down the stretch and in the post-season ... but it was also something of a fool's dream, as the Phillies have apparently been insistent upon receiving quality prospects in any deal for Lee, and, per various reports, have been resistent to kicking in the substantial chunk of money that would be necessary to justify the inclusion of said good prospects. 

Just to clarify the Lee contractual situation one more time, he's going to bank either (a) $110.5 million from now through the end of the 2016 season if his 2016 option year vests or is exercised, which is good for an average annual value of $25.3 million, or (b) $95.5 million from now through the end of the 2015 season if his 2016 option year doesn't vest and is then subsequently bought out, which is good for an average annual value of $28.3 million. That's a tremendous financial obligation, and, as I explained earlier in the Clubhouse, the Phillies likely would have needed to kick in a minimum of $30-40 million in order to have even a remote shot at acquiring the type of prospect-laden package that they were seeking. It may be fun to dream on, but it's just a lousy match going both ways. 

Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram notes that the Rangers made little headway with the Phillies as far as how much of Lee's contract Philadelphia would pick up, and it seems fairly safe to assume that the contract is going to continue to be the overriding obstruction to any kind of Lee-to-Texas reunion -- even in the off-season, you'll be talking about a total obligation of $85-plus million on the low end and $100-plus million on the high end, and unless the Phillies decide that they're in such a significant financial bind that they're willing to move Lee for salary relief and a minimal package, I just don't see any real basis for expecting a Lee trade to ever come together. And so it goes.

Update: Ken Rosenthal confirms that the Lee-to-Texas trade talks never gained any real momentum, as the Phillies offered "little relief" on his contract. Nolan Ryan says that there is nothing to the Lee-to-Texas rumors. Peter Gammons tweets that Ryan still harbors "ill feelings" over Lee's departure from Texas.

Monday Rangers Trade Rumors: 20-Something Hours To Nowhere

Well, here we go again:

● 4:00 p.m. CDT: The Rangers have been aggressive in attempting to consummate a deal with the Red Sox, and have scouted Aaron Cook and Kelly Shoppach; they have sinced cooled on Cook, but are still in on Shoppach, and while some of the Texas scouts don't like Josh Beckett, that call is ultimately up to Jon Daniels and Nolan Ryan (Nick Cafardo, Twitter)

● 12:15 p.m. CDT: Per ESPN.com's Buster Olney: "Source: Cliff Lee is in play in trade talks today. Rangers obviously the most logical landing spot, with 3B Mike Olt as possible centerpiece. ... Source about Lee trade talks: "It's not going to be cheap." Meaning that the Phillies want a significant package of prospects." Joel Sherman adds that he spoke to one executive who said "Lee [will be] traded by [the deadline] or in the off-season, because Philadelphia needs youth back plus dollars saved," and identifies the Rangers as a front-runner in the re-emerging Lee sweepstakes (Twitter)

● T.R. Sullivan says that the Rangers are "listening" to the Red Sox' sales pitch on Josh Beckett, who's slogging through an odd season (better-than-average peripherals, worse-than-average ERA) and is banking $15.75 million during both this season and each of the next two seasons, and notes that the Rangers "haven't ruled out" the possibility of making a play there; according to Jeff Passan, the Red Sox called the Braves and Rangers over the weekend attempting to "dump" Beckett, with those clubs being targets due to Boston's belief that Beckett would waive his 10-and-5 full no-trade rights to pitch for either of those two clubs (MLB.com; Yahoo! Sports)

● Per the Kansas City Star's Bob Dutton, the Royals have expressed interest in Justin Grimm in a possible deal that would send closer Jonathan Broxton to the Rangers; however, that rumor doesn't seem to have gained any traction since last night; the Rangers are reportedly also involved on Rockies right-hander Rafael Betancourt and assuredly some other relief names that we haven't yet as of yet (Twitter)

Mitch Moreland Activated; Leonys Martin Optioned

After a five-and-a-half week stint on the disabled list (left hamstring strain), Mitch Moreland is back tonight, as the .272/.316/.513-hitting first baseman has been activated, and will return to his native defensive position tonight while batting ninth in the batting order. As expected, Leonys Martin has been optioned to Triple-A Round Rock, and one hopes that he can pick up from where he left off in the Pacific Coast League, and that his sporadic in-game use over this last month and a half at the major league level doesn't end up wreaking longer-term havoc on his performance ... or, for that matter, his trade value.

With Moreland back in the fold, we should see a couple of different effects: first, the lineup against right-handed starters should receive a pretty substantial bottom-order lift, as he had clobbered righties to the tune of .291/.342/.552 in 147 plate appearances thus far this season and was, at the very least, functioning as an adequate, above-replacement first baseman -- somebody that you weren't locked into for an extended period, who could give you cheap, decent, platoon-type production. A lot of things have gone wrong with the offense of late, and Moreland succumbing to that hamstring problem was one of them.

There's also a bit of a domino effect in play here, as the main beneficiaries of the Moreland injury -- from a playing-time standpoint, at least -- were Craig Gentry, who had emerged as the Rangers' everyday center fielder of late, and Michael Young, who had picked up quite a bit of extra playing time at first base during Moreland's absence. Ideally, Moreland's return allows you to phase Young out of the lineup just a bit against right-handers and roll with Josh Hamilton, Gentry, and Nelson Cruz in the outfield, David Murphy at designated hitter, and Moreland at first base some of the time ... but I don't know how optimistic any of us should be as far as that actually happening, and it seems likelier that Young, in spite of his continued offensive struggles and Gentry's recent success, will continue to receive everyday playing time, with Gentry's playing time being undercut as a result.

Update: Tonight's lineup features Murphy in left field, Hamilton in center field, Cruz in right field, Young at designated hitter, and Moreland at first base. Craig Gentry returns to the bench against Ervin Santana. For what it's worth, Gentry is hitting .296/.355/.388 (100 wRC+) in 109 plate appearances against right-handers this season, with Young going .245/.272/.321 (51 wRC+) in 287 plate appearances against same-handed hurlers. As Josh Hamilton might say, "you guys can chew on that and think about it."

How To Salvage A Game

"Stand back ya'll, I got this."I wouldn't say that this game was overly entertaining or satisfying or even reassuring, because two runs scored over the course of a full game is simply not going to be enough to win most games ... but last night, it was enough, and the division lead is back up to 4½ games, and, for whatever it's worth, you feel just a little better about this week's enormous four-game tilt against the Angels:

● The season began with the (not entirely misplaced) belief that the Rangers would end up needing Scott Feldman to play an important role for them at some point down the line, and that sentiment was seemingly blown all to hell as Feldman got his rotation shot in mid-to-late May, proceeded to struggle for an extended period of time, and went so far as to complain to the press about his fluctuating role ... but now, as the calendar is on the verge of flipping from July to August, the payoff is finally beginning to take shape, as Feldman spun eight excellent scoreless frames in last night's series finale against Chicago, and has now yielded just one run in his last 21 innings dating all the way back to July 4th. 

I've been critical of Feldman at several points in time over the last couple of months, but he deserves ample plaudits for last night's body of work, as he attacked the White Sox with a sharp, well-blended fastball/cutter/curveball mix and never allowed his command or composure to abandon him. For what it's worth, Feldman primarily credits his success to improving his attitude and outlook and not worrying about when he's going to pitch again, which should placate those who still hold a grudge against him for his vocalized discontent last month. I don't know how much longer he'll retain this hold on his back-rotation spot, but he's giving the Rangers something to think about. 

Incidentally, Feldman is just the seventh Rangers starting pitcher in the pitch count era -- dating back to the late-80s -- to toss eight-plus shutout innings while requiring an average of 11 or fewer pitches per inning to do it, which says something pretty significant about the kind of efficiency he displayed on the bump last night:

Player	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	App,Dec	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	Pit	Str	GSc
Scott Feldman	2012-07-29	TEX	CHW	W 2-0	GS-8 ,W	8.0	7	0	0	0	5	0	88	63	73
Derek Holland	2011-07-30	TEX	TOR	W 3-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	4	0	0	1	5	0	95	69	83
Derek Holland	2009-08-09	TEX	LAA	W 7-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	3	0	0	1	8	0	96	73	88
Rick Helling	2001-07-29	TEX	TBD	W 2-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	4	0	0	0	4	0	99	70	83
Bob Tewksbury	1995-07-07	TEX	NYY	W 10-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	6	0	0	0	5	0	95	67	80
Kenny Rogers	1994-07-28	TEX	CAL	W 4-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	0	0	0	0	8	0	98	64	95
Kevin Brown	1990-06-20	TEX	MIN	W 8-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	4	0	0	0	4	0	79	60	83

And from the "Wait, What?" department, we have this nugget: since June 9th, Feldman has amassed a strikeout-to-walk total of 35-to-3 over a span of 44.1 innings (seven starts, one relief appearance). Among the 100 pitchers who have accumulated a qualifying number of innings since that date, Feldman's strikeout-to-walk ratio (11.7 K/BB) ranks No. 1 overall. He's had his assortment of struggles with his command and being too hittable and such over these last seven weeks, but that is simply absurd.

● The Rangers' offense went 0-for-23 with runners in scoring position over the final two games of their set against the White Sox, and 1-for-31 for the series, with the first of two runs last night being plated on a third-inning error, and the second being scored in the bottom of the fifth inning when Nelson Cruz dramatically bolted for home on a Michael Young dinker back to the pitcher. Young, of course, was dead in the water from that moment of poor contact, but Cruz had a sizable lead off third base and intentions of scoring in his heart, and the instant that Gavin Floyd committed to his throw to first base, Cruz initiated his sprint for home. The throw was off line, and the lead was doubled.

I can see how one might perceive that third-to-home attempt as an undue risk, but, from a probability standpoint, the question that needed to be answered was whether Cruz stood a better chance of scoring by taking his chances and splitting for home on Young's grounder, or by remaining at third base and hoping that someone else could pick him up. Per Tom Tango's run frequency matrix, a man-on-third, two-out situation results in that runner getting home less than 30 percent of the time on average; if you assume that Cruz's chances of scoring there were something more along the lines of, say, 50-60 percent, then that's a no-brainer, and a great example of intelligent baserunning on Cruz's part, in that he took a calculated risk that was justified by the situation at hand, and put in the effort to make it pay off.

● And finally, because there's not a whole lot else to talk about from this game, here's Elvis Andrus bailing out Joe Nathan in the ninth inning with a beautiful, airborne, lunging snare:

There's a line of thought buzzing around right now which proposes that the Rangers kill two of their upcoming problems -- that is, Josh Hamilton likely leaving in the winter, and the absence of a full-time vacancy in the Rangers' middle infield to accommodate Jurickson Profar -- with one stone by waving farewell to Hamilton, trading Andrus for a power bat during the winter, and plugging Profar in at shortstop next spring. And from a dispassionate, roster-building standpoint, there's serious merit to that idea ... but baseball fandom is driven by emotion, and if the day ever does arrive where Elvis is traded and this era of defensive dominance at shortstop comes to an end, that truly will be a bittersweet day. I could watch Elvis do this for the rest of my life.

Sunday Rangers Trade Rumors: The Backup Plan Edition

More to follow as warranted by new developments:

4:15 p.m. CDT: T.R. Sullivan notes in his late-afternoon update that the Rangers "aren't optimistic" that they will trade for starting pitching help before the non-waiver trade deadline, and says that from what sources are saying, Josh Johnson and James Shields "just aren't going to happen" for Texas; their belief is that the Rays aren't serious about moving Shields, and they "aren't that high" on Johnson (MLB.com)

From Ken Rosenthal: "The Rangers, frustrated by the thin trade market for starting pitchers, are increasing their focus on relievers and hitters, according to major-league sources. Cleveland Indians right fielder Shin-Soo Choo is one hitter in whom the Rangers have interest, sources said. But the Rangers are casting a wide search, and were not yet believed to be close to any trades. ... The top of the pitching market now consists of [Shields and Johnson], neither of whom the Rangers consider attractive at their respective teams’ current asking prices, sources said." (FOXSports.com)

● 1:00 p.m. CDT: From Jayson Stark: "Texas ... seems especially cautious about [Josh] Johnson and the hefty package it would take to get him, no matter how much the Rangers might need an ace. The Marlins have told Texas there's nothing for those two teams to talk about unless third-base prospect Mike Olt's name is on the table. And so far, the Rangers haven't been willing to lay Olt's name on any team's table, for any sort of deal. So the chances of those two clubs matching up seems like a major long shot. But the Rangers still sent a delegation to see Johnson pitch on Sunday. So those chances, clearly, aren't zero." (ESPN.com)

● 6:00 a.m. CDT: Per T.R. Sullivan, the Rangers don't want to move Jurickson Profar or Mike Olt in any deal for a starting pitcher; that wasn't a direct factor in the Zack Greinke trade falling apart, however, as the Brewers, as mentioned before, wanted Martin Perez, but the Rangers also weren't willing to include Perez in a deal for Greinke; one of the deals that was discussed would have sent Justin Grimm, Chad Bell, Leury Garcia, and Jorge Alfaro to the Brewers, but the Rangers -- again, per Sullivan's account; Ken Rosenthal's account had Cody Buckel factor prominently into the discussion -- were only willing to go as far as Grimm/Bell/Garcia (MLB.com)

● With talk continuing to build of the Marlins seeking a potentially exorbitant sum for Josh Johnson, Danny Knobler notes that both the Rangers and Angels backed off Johnson due to his past health issues and their respective beliefs that his $13.75 million salary is too high in light of that injury risk (Twitter)

● The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo says that the Rangers need a backup catcher, and notes that Rangers scouts were in attendance at last night's Red Sox game, with his inference being that Kelly Shoppach was being scouted by the Rangers; Texas also covets Cody Ross, but there's no indication that Boston wants to sell on him at this point (Twitter, CBSSports.com)

Neftali Feliz Scratched From Rehab Start Due To Elbow Discomfort

It was supposed to be the third of four scheduled minor league rehab starts for Neftali Feliz, signaling yet another successful step back towards a return to the majors and the hopeful arrival of an impact arm to the pitching staff ... but it's not going to happen, as Feliz has been scratched from tonight's rehab start for Triple-A Round Rock due to an ever ominous-sounding recurrence of "elbow discomfort."

There's a chance that this is just a minor blip on the radar, perhaps something along the lines of a 5-7 day setback, and that his rehab schedule hasn't been shot to hell by this news, and I don't want to speculate too hard on what's going on with Feliz's arm until we have more information on the nature of this setback and what's going to happen next for him -- but, at the moment, this sounds like terrible news for both Feliz and the Rangers, as the fears over Feliz possibly having a major, long-term, surgery-necessitating elbow problem intensify, and as the Rangers brace themselves for the possibility of not getting Feliz back during the 2012 calendar year. 

Feliz's role upon returning to the team had not yet been solidified, as the plan was for one of Alexi Ogando -- whom the Rangers had been stretching out -- to move to the back of the starting rotation and for the other to move into (or remain in) a late-inning role; now, though, the Rangers may not have any choice in that particular matter matter, and the likeliest outcome may be something like Ogando transitioning to the back of the starting rotation while the Rangers pick up a reliever or two on the trade market to absorb the possible rest-of-season loss of Feliz. Either that, or their pursuit of a starting pitcher on the trade market could end up yielding something.

But the bad news just keeps flowing, and, at some point, you just become totally beaten down by it. You wonder when it's finally going to end.

The Rangers Are 58-41

The last time the Rangers were worse than 0 for 13 with RISP in a game was May 13, 1997. Texas went 0 for 14 vs. Cleveland.

— Anthony Andro (@aandro) July 29, 2012

no bert don't go

The Zack Greinke Trade, The Rangers, And What Happens Now

About an hour before the first pitch of last night's endlessly frustrating loss to the White Sox, word filtered down from FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi that the Angels had agreed to terms with the Brewers on a trade that would send Zack Greinke to southern California in exchange for shortstop prospect Jean Segura and right-handed starting pitching prospects John Hellweg and Ariel Pena. 

The Rangers, meanwhile, ended up dropping out of the Greinke sweepstakes late in the process (much to the chagrin of some of their fans), with initial reports suggesting that the Brewers demanded Mike Olt's inclusion, and, later in the evening, a Milwaukee Journal Sentinel report indicating that the Rangers' offer for Greinke topped out at Justin Grimm, Chad Bell, and Leury Garcia, which the various and sundry prospect analysts -- including Jason Cole -- believed to be less valuable than the Segura/Hellweg/Pena package that the Brewers ultimately accepted.

Now, though, we're beginning to get a few more details on how the process unfolded, as Ken Rosenthal tweeted a few hours ago that the Rangers were actually willing to include both Grimm and Cody Buckel in their offer, but Brewers general manager Doug Melvin sought an advanced, upper-tier shortstop prospect first and foremost; when that match obviously fell through, Melvin wanted Martin Perez, and the Rangers didn't want to pay that price for a rental pitcher. Rosenthal also added that the Angels' late inclusion of Pena swung the pendulum further away from the Rangers and towards the Angels; meanwhile, MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez noted that Texas was close to acquiring Greinke on Thursday, but the talks disintegrated on Friday, and the Angels moved in, and that was that.

I feel like there are two major questions we need to delve into with respect to the Greinke trade and where the Rangers go from here, and they are ...

(1) Should the Rangers have gone that extra mile -- or, in this case, maybe a couple hundred extra feet -- to procure Greinke? Before we take this any further, let's all just go ahead and acknowledge that moving Jurickson Profar or Elvis Andrus in a Greinke deal wasn't even an option, and that moving even Olt in a Greinke deal would not have constituted a good exchange of present for future value. In that sense, I agree with Keith Law's opinion that Olt for Greinke would have a stupid trade for Texas. The Rangers clearly wanted no part of a deal where they yielded Olt and his six-plus years of club control for two months and the post-season from Greinke, and you realy can't blame them one bit.

That brings us to the matter of whether the Rangers should have swallowed hard, clamped their eyes shut, and included Perez in their offer for Greinke -- a painful decision that, based on the Rosenthal report, probably seals the deal on Greinke. Or maybe it seals it. We don't know. It's difficult to pass judgment even on that notion because we just don't know what else Melvin was seeking in addition to Perez; we don't know whether such a deal would have cost Texas, say, a Perez/Buckel/Garcia package, which seems decidedly stronger than Segura/Pena/Hellweg. The problem is that Melvin apparently really, really wanted a shortstop, but Profar/Andrus were far too good to be considered realistic options, and Garcia seemingly wasn't good enough, while Segura was right in that prospect-value sweet spot. 

And, ultimately, this seems to have been a case of the Rangers valuing (and believing in) both Olt and Perez too much to justify moving either for a short-term rotation asset who, I would imagine, they weren't overly confident in being able to sign before he had a chance to shop his services around on the open market this coming winter.

(2) What happens to the Rangers now? With Greinke off the market, Cliff Lee ostensibly off the market, James Shields -- who is a more marginal upgrade than the other arms in this discussion, I think -- supposedly requiring a return more valuable than what Greinke recouped for Milwaukee, and the Marlins reportedly seeking a Mark Teixeira-esque haul for Josh Johnson, the likeliest outcome here appears to be Alexi Ogando (who was purposely stretched out last night) or Neftali Feliz being added to the back of the starting rotation mix, and the Rangers covering for that transition by acquiring a relief pitcher, or something along those lines. There's still time and opportunity for something of major significance to go down on the starting pitching front, but I don't know that anyone should count on that happening. 

[For what it's worth, MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan writes that the Rangers don't seem to be too high on Johnson, and sas that they won't offer more for Johnson than they did for Greinke ... which, if true, would probably torpedo any chance of a Johnson-to-Texas trade happening within the next couple of days.]

As for the Angels, they've just picked up one win on the low end and probably two wins on the higher end by swapping out Greinke for their worst present starter (Ervin Santana, one would presume), and are a more dangerous team today than they were at this time yesterday; that said, the Rangers are still the favorites to claim the division title, with CoolStandings.com and Baseball Prospectus both still pegging their division-winning odds north of 60 percent, and that's why I disagree with Jon Paul Morosi's stated position that the Rangers now have to do something in order to respond to both their own loss of Greinke and the Angels' acquisition of Greinke. Pining in print for a reactionary trade makes for a good narrative, but that isn't how a smart front office operates.

Yeah, it would be nice if the Rangers countered the Greinke move by upgrading their own rest-of-season win projection via trade, and it would certainly diminish their margin for error (and, in the process, elevate our floundering optimism a bit), but the point is that they don't have to do something. The Angels had to do something. The Tigers had to do something. It's the teams on the playoff bubble that have to do something, not the Rangers. That isn't to say that I don't want to see the Rangers make some sort of move to enhance their roster and incrementally improve their chances of winning both the division and the World Series, but as for the doom-and-gloom crowd that believes Texas is now totally screwed because it missed out on Greinke ... well, I just don't concur.

"I Will Let You Down ... I Will Make You Hurt"

I woke up this morning to a wonderful song buzzing out of my cell phone's alarm (Nas's "Good Morning," for anyone who actually cares, which I realize nobody does), and the sun brilliantly shining through my apartment window, and, for a few fleeting seconds right after I regained consciousness, this was an excellent morning ... and then I realized that yesterday actually did happen. Damn it. Anyway, here are a few thoughts on last night's game and perhaps the reality of Rangers fandom right now:

● What a thoroughly, almost impossibly maddening start from Yu Darvish (6.1 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 HR), who, in all fairness, missed bats and induced a satisfactory number of ground balls and all of that -- but was hurt by some balls that crept through the infield, hurt by some extra bases that were uncharacteristically allowed on the defensive end, hurt by his high, early-game and exceedingly stressful pitch count, and hurt by his perpetually shaky command, with a particularly painful moment transpiring when he went 0-2 with two outs on Kevin Youkilis, caught too much of the plate with a 96 mph heater, and watched it fly for a two-run homer that cut an early 4-1 lead to 4-3.

I love Darvish. He is capable of doing incredible things and pitching incredible games. We've all seen him do it. I think, though, that Darvish is also somebody who is contributing to the apprehension of the fan base as a whole, and its corresponding desire for a top-of-the-rotation starter, because we look at his on-and-off nature of his brilliance on the bump, and then can't help but wonder how that's going to translate into a post-season environment. We hate that coin-flip proposition, and, yes, the chances of Darvish being good on a given night are better than 50-50 ... but, well, you get my point.

● With men on first and second base and nobody out in the bottom of the fifth inning (courtesy of a Craig Gentry hit-by-pitch and an Ian Kinsler walk), and with the Rangers trailing 5-4 at that point in the game, Elvis Andrus strode to the plate with an opportunity to alter the Rangers' fortunes with one swing of the bat -- at which point of the more maddening (sensing a trend here?) at-bats of the Rangers' season took place, as Elvis showed bunt on each of the five pitches during his at-bat, and watched as the count went from 1-0 to 1-1 to 2-1 to 2-2 (foul bunt) to an inexplicable strike three call, as Elvis pulled his bat back from the bunting position and watched a Chris Sale pitch sail right down the heart of the plate. Josh Hamilton then proceeded to strike out, and Adrian Beltre followed suit. Rally over.

Now, clearly, that's a poor job of execution on Elvis's end, and for that he should be held culpable -- but a better question here is, why on earth are the Rangers giving away outs when they're on the losing end of a one-run deficit, in a game where nine runs have already been scored in fewer than five innings? Why in the hell was the bunt still on even after he had finangled hitter's counts at 1-0 and 2-1? For that matter, why on earth are you giving up an out and attempting to advance the baserunners when you have Josh Hamilton coming up next to face an excellent lefty pitcher? Yeah, I'm engaging in a certain amount of dead horse beating right here, as I'm pretty sure most of you realize my position on sacrifice bunts, but this one in particular is nothing short of mind-blowing.

As recently as late May, Elvis was vocalizing confidence in his emergent doubles-power stroke and offensive game as a whole, and even with last night's 0-for-4 mixed in (which, incidentally, snapped a 13-game hitting streak), he still boasts a .370 on-base percentage on the season and viable gap-to-gap power. He also leads all of baseball in sacrifice bunts, with 12 (one more than the two guys tied for second place, Clayton Kershaw and Chris Capuano -- both of whom are National League pitchers), and is tied for second in baseball in sacrifice-bunt attempts with 14. And, to be honest, we don't know with total certainty whether that bunt was ordered by the dugout or whether Elvis bunted of his own volition ... but we have some past evidence that breeds a pretty damn good guess.

Sacrifice bunts. Argh.

● There were plenty of other fail-type moments that I could get into, but the biggest story in that regard on the night was Josh Hamilton, who did drive a couple of runs across the plate but went 0-for-4 in the process, and struggled defensively at his post in left field ... and also found himself as the recipient of some noticeably loud boos, which, to my recollection, is the first time that Hamilton has ever actually been booed by the Ballpark contingent. Afterwards, he offered his thoughts on the matter:

"It's disappointing. I'll leave it at that," Hamilton said. "I hadn't even thought about it. I noticed but it's all about, 'What have you done for me lately?', no matter who you are. That's what it is. There's more fans that are still cheering and encouraging me. I'll pray for the ones that aren't. I appreciate the support from the other ones."

I would go ahead and surmise that, in addition to the extended period of bad hitting and perceived lack of defensive effort last night, the fact that both Ron Washington and Nolan Ryan called him out this past week for the #slack in his gameplay probably has a little something to do with the heightened sensitivity of the fan base to his struggles. This incident was also significant because it was the first real, noticeable crack in the Ballpark crowd's typically unyielding devotion to Hamilton. I'm sure he'll do something good again soon in front of the home faithful and this whole incident will fade into memory, but, yeah, you can't help but find this interesting.

● And, finally, I've already talked about this at some length, but we had yet another game last night where it just wasn't fun to watch the Rangers play, and where the enjoyment -- outside of the four-spot that the Rangers put up in the first inning against Chris Sale -- on our end was, for the most part, non-existent. We're supposed to enjoy this, and, again, I get that our heightened expectations are, to some extent, responsible for our diminishing enjoyment of Rangers baseball ... but even if we didn't have any expectations, I feel like last night still would have still sucked. It's tough. This team is very good, and this team could very well win it all this year, but, right now, it just isn't fun to watch.

Zack Greinke To The Angels; Rangers Said 'No' On Mike Olt

Per Ken Rosenthal on Twitter:

BREAKING: #Angels close to acquiring Zack Greinke from #Brewers, sources tell me and @jonmorosi.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 27, 2012

And now:

Zack Greinke close to being dealt to #Angels, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me. @MLBONFOX

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 27, 2012

And now:

#Brewers getting shortstop Jean Segura and two Double A pitchers from #Angels for Greinke. "Finishing touches" being applied. Deal is done.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 27, 2012

Per T.R. Sullivan, the Brewers were insistent upon Mike Olt being included in a package for Greinke, and the Rangers said they wouldn't do that, and that was the end of that.

Welp. More in a bit as further details materialize.

Josh Hamilton's Plate Discipline Nightmare ... Is Getting Worse

Last Saturday, Ron Washington created a pretty substantial stir through the ranks of both conventional and new media when he bluntly stated that Josh Hamilton was struggling to the extent that he was because he wasn't showing any patience or making any adjustments at the plate, and took his #realtalk -- are Twitter hash tags considered to be an acceptable journalistic convention yet?  -- one step further when he remarked that he had seen Hamilton make the necessary adjustments before, "but it seems like it bores him." 

And, earlier this week, Nolan Ryan took the organization's continued challenging of Hamilton over to ESPN 103.3 FM: "I think we're all seeing the same thing. You're right that some of his at bats aren't very impressive from the standpoint that he doesn't work deep into the count, he's swinging at a lot of bad pitches, he just doesn't seem to be locked in at all. So what you're hoping is that his approach will change and he'll start giving quality at bats because there's a lot of those at-bats that he just gives away. One of the things I've always commented on is I can't ever say that I ever saw Henry (Hank) Aaron give an at-bat away."

Hamilton then himself responded to the comments of his team president, essentially stating that he understood completely where Nolan was coming from while also uttering these vaguely unsettling comments: "When I'm swinging at pitches out of the zone it's no big deal. When I'm swinging at them and missing them it's a big deal. Focus on bringing pitchers back to having to throw me strikes or at least something close enough that I can do something with it. They all know they can throw me questionable pitches, and more than likely I'll swing at them. But when I'm going good, they can do that and I get hits. When I'm not going good, I get myself out. I understand that."

Now, obviously, I'm no great fan of quote-overloaded front-page posts; in fact, I'm not sure I've ever led any such post with such a large quantity of quotes. But I feel that there is some instructive value in looking at this whole string of back-and-forth comments holistically and getting a sense of how each player in this little melodrama feels about where Hamilton is right now. If you're inclined to simplify matters a bit, you have Washington, who sounds fed up enough that he has taken to calling Hamilton's effort into question, Ryan, who's calling Hamilton's focus into question, and Hamilton, who's not really saying much that would assuage the concerns of the manager or the president.

Anyway, the one thing I'm most interested in here is performing a pseudo-update of last month's post on Hamilton's rapidly deteriorating plate discipline, and taking a look at how he's faring now relative to how he was faring then -- "then" being up through the games of June 7th. In other words, I want to see how well Ryan's/Washington's perceptions match up with reality. Let's sneak a quick look at those arbitary endpoints, and then bring those numbers up to the present; keep in mind that Hamilton's struggles first began right around May 17th, and that May 17th through June 8th encompasses the period between the beginning of his slump and the publication date of that article:

4/6-5/16: .404/.458/.838, 57.0% swing, 34.2% zone, 42.6% chase, 33.1% miss
5/17-6/8: .227/.286/.440, 57.8% swing, 31.0% zone, 46.1% chase, 35.0% miss
6/9-7/26: .200/.289/.408, 58.0% swing, 35.1% zone, 41.9% chase, 39.3% miss

So, in other words, given these three pools of data, Hamilton's swing rate has remained consistently high throughout, and it's remained high as pitchers have actually resumed putting more pitches in the strike zone, which itself explains the lower chase rate at pitches outside of the strike zone; the most glaring problem here is that more and more of his swings have missed the ball entirely. Interesting, but not tremendously revelatory ... although things become more if you delineate by month and take notice of the fact that, in the month of July, Hamilton has swung at more than six out of every 10 pitches, which is, as you might expect, the highest mark in baseball this month:

April: .395/.438/.744, 57.0% swing, 34.7% zone, 41.8% chase, 30.7% miss
May: .344/.405/.781, 57.7% swing, 32.1% zone, 45.3% chase, 33.3% miss
June: .228/.318/.436, 55.8% swing, 34.5% zone, 40.4% chase, 41.3% miss
July: .154/.230/.308, 60.9% swing, 34.5% zone, 45.6% chase, 38.4% miss

There are two other pieces of information here that are, I think, somewhat illuminating, in that they shed a little more light on the fundamental flaws in his game right now, and illustrate how seeing a similar number of pitches in the zone doesn't necessarily mean that you're being pitched the same way. Below, from left to right, are the pitch frequency heat maps for Josh Hamilton from the months of May, June, and July; in other words, these are the locations of all pitches that Hamilton saw during these three months (click any particular heat map to expand; also, special thanks to ESPN Stats & Info for the access to their data/heat maps):

Take particular notice of how the July heat map expands to encompass areas like up-and-in and down-and-in and way-way-outside -- yes, the average number of pitches that have actually crossed through the zone has been on the uptick, but pitchers across the league have expanded their sights beyond that low-and-away sector and are now challenging him with stuff thrown to virtually every conceivable location, and he just can't seem to do anything with any of it right now.

And, second, here is how Hamilton has fared against pitches outside of the strike zone over each of the four months of this season; notice, again, the degree to which he is being bamboozled and the inadequacy of his approach, as his response to his deepening slump has been to swing MORE OFTEN at out-of-zone pitches in the month of July (which have primarily been low and away), and, unsurprisingly, miss more of them than ever before:

April: .300/.447/.467, 41.8% swing (same as chase), 44.6% miss, 
May: .349/.482/.558, 45.3% swing, 42.0% miss
June: .159/.351/.205, 40.4% swing, 54.1% miss
July: .094/.250/.188, 45.6% swing, 55.1% miss

So, here we are. We have a player blessed with Hall of Fame-caliber talent who is, by his own admission, "out of sorts mentally," a player whose performance data and vocalized mindset suggest that he is actively resistant to outside advice and wants to break out of his slump in his own way on his terms and nobody else's, and a manager and team president -- and, no doubt, other key front-office personnel -- who are just sick of it. I'm not sure what to say. I'm sure he wants to improve, but I don't know that he's taking the most efficient or expedient path to getting back where he wants to be, and while he could conceivably pull things together with his current approach (undisciplined as it might be), it certainly doesn't seem conducive to longer-term success.

I've asserted multiple times in the recent past that Hamilton has every reason in the world to want to get better -- his impending (maybe) "save-the-world" contract, the prospect of a championship ring, etc. -- and that there's no valid reason to believe that he's just being lazy or sloppy or in a I-just-don't-give-a-damn sort of mood about his work. When the manager goes so far as to call you out for not putting in the necessary effort to improve, though, that's a tremendous eye-opener, and now ... now, I just don't know anymore. Is it a matter of him simply being psychologically incapable of pulling himself together when faced with adversity of this magnitude? Does he actually not care? I get that pitch-recognition funks are a reality of baseball, but when and where does this end?

I don't know. Nobody really knows what's going through his head right now. And that's what has troubled me up through this point in time, and, even if he eventually gets it together, what will continue to trouble me going forward.

Friday Rangers Trade Rumors: The Calm Before The Storm

Again, to be updated as the day goes along, and if/when more items of Rangers note come down:

● 12:00 p.m. CDT: In a column where he argues that Jon Daniels should swing trades for both a No. 1 starting pitcher and an impact hitter, lest the Rangers' "last, best chance" to win a World Series with their current core of players slip away, Jon Paul Morosi writes that the Rangers dispatched a scout to watch Thursday's Tigers/Indians tilt, "presumably to watch Indians right fielder Shin-Soo Choo — who may become available in the coming days" (FOXSports.com)

● ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick offers this admittedly strange update on the Marlins' asking price for Josh Johnson: "Sources say the Marlins are asking for each team's top 2-3 prospects in every trade scenario involving Josh Johnson ... We're talking Jurickson Profar-Travis D'Arnaud types just to get talks moving, then a lot more beyond that ... So unless the Marlins lower their sights considerably before Tuesday, that doesn't bode well for Johnson being dealt." (Twitter)

● Per Jon Heyman: "The Phillies plan to keep Cliff Lee, and won't trade him before the Tuesday trade deadline, sources say ... One person with ties to the Phillies said team higher-ups believe trading Lee would potentially undo most or all the good that was done by extending Cole Hamels and that the team's plan is to build around its trio of great starters, including also Roy Halladay, next year ... Lee's contract is such that he could probably clear waivers and be traded in August. But the Phillies have no plan or thought to consider a trade for Lee anytime during the year, and something would have to change for them to reconsider, sources suggest." (CBSSports.com)

Tonight's Sort Of Informative Rangers/Zack Greinke Update

T.R. Sullivan has an interesting, albeit somewhat cryptic, story up on MLB.com right now concerning the Rangers' continued pursuit of a front-line starting pitcher, and, more specifically, Brewers right-hander Zack Greinke, whom Doug Melvin is now completely (and publicly) intent on trading before Tuesday afternoon's non-waiver trade deadline. I'm not sure whether people really want posts with questionable signal-to-noise ratios like this right now, but, well, everyone's anxious to some degree about what's going to happen over the next five days, so we might as well take what we can get and run with it.

In any event, Sullivan (a) confirms that the Rangers are "seriously interested [in Greinke] and have scouted Greinke heavily for the past month"; (b) cryptically notes that "there are indications that something could get done [on the Greinke front] before Sunday," when Greinke is scheduled to make his next (and presumably last) start with the Brewers; and (c) reiterates that the Rangers are unlikely to be deterred by the fact that Greinke can walk after the season with no potential draft-pick compensation, although he also remarks that this reality "may mean [the Rangers] are willing to give up less for him."

One of the interesting things about Sullivan's stated position on the Rangers' options is that he clearly prefers Greinke over any other potentially available option, and, after writing yesterday morning that the Rangers "don't have a great scouting report on [Josh Johnson]" (which can be interpreted in more than one way), he played up Greinke's status as a "difference-maker" earlier today while downplaying James Shields and Josh Johnson's respective abilities to attain that same label. I already made my quant-based case in the Clubhouse as far as why I believe Sullivan is underselling Johnson a bit -- but I also recognize that Sullivan is close to the team, and that his opinions likely reflect those of at least a few voices in the room, and that's why I think his comments are notable.

I also took notice of his unequivocal statement that "Rangers officials have targeted Greinke as the best pitcher available," so if you want to go ahead and take that one step further and assume that Greinke is, in fact, now the Rangers' No. 1 trade target right now, and the one guy that they are now focusing more of their time and resources and energy on than anyone else ... well, you have a readymade case laid out in front of you.

Also, for what it's worth, from Keith Law's chat over at ESPN.com earlier today:

Joe (Green Bay): Would the Rangers scoff at a Greinke for [Mike] Olt & Leury Garcia proposal? Will Garcia hit enough at the ML level for him to be an above-average regular?

Keith Law: I would scoff at it. No way I deal Olt for two months of Greinke.

So, you know, there's that and everything. Don't you feel more informed already?

Thursday Rangers Trade Rumors: Something's Gonna Happen, Right?

I mean, we are all having fun here, right?

6:00 p.m. CDT: Jon Heyman lists the Rangers as the likeliest destination for Zack Greinke, and handicaps their odds of acquiring him at 9-5, while also noting that the Rangers had two scouts present at Greinke's outing in Philadelphia on Tuesday, including Jim Colborn, the Rangers' senior advisor of Pacific Rim operations and multiple-time major league pitching coach; Jim Bowden concurs with that selection, listing the Rangers, Angels, and Braves (in order) as the likeliest landing spots for Greinke (CBSSports.com, ESPN.com)

● 2:00 p.m. CDT: Brewers general manager Doug Melvin has declared that Zack Greinke will "definitely" be traded before Tuesday's non-waiver trade deadline; all long-term contract negotiations between Milwaukee and Greinke's camp have been cut off, and with a deal now being inevitable, Melvin has taken his sales pitch public: "If you're in a pennant race, [Greinke] is a difference maker. He can go deep into games. He's never been on the DL except for a basketball injury [breaking a rib in February 2011]. He's very athletic. And he's great in the clubhouse.'' (Bob Nightengale, USA Today)

● Per Jon Heyman: "The selling Marlins are seeking a "Teixeira-like" package for top young starter Josh Johnson, so unless the requests are lowered there is no guarantee he'll join Anibal Sanchez, Omar Infante and Hanley Ramirez as ex-Marlins. Plus, they're telling teams Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle are off-limits altogether." (CBSSports.com)

● 12:00 p.m. CDT: The Rangers, Dodgers, and Angels are reportedly all bidding on Rays right-hander James Shields right now, and Danny Knobler is reporting that all three teams have already gone so far as to submit offers, although the Rays have yet to commit to any one offer as of yet; the Angels were thought to be dangling center fielder Peter Bourjos as a major component of their offer on Shields (CBSSports.com)

● Tom Haudricourt on the Rangers' pursuit of Zack Greinke: The Rangers' primary target was Hamels, and now that he is off the market they will have even more interest in Greinke. Their top prospect is shortstop Jurickson Profar, whom the Brewers would love to have, but Texas considers him an untouchable. Third baseman Mike Olt is another coveted prospect, but the Brewers have a three-year commitment to [Aramis] Ramirez, who would have to be moved to make room. The Brewers would be very interested in obtaining left-hander Martin Perez, the Rangers' top pitching prospect, and also have scouted right-hander Justin Grimm." (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

● Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi on Cliff Lee, whom rival executives believe the Phillies will at least entertain offers on before next Tuesday's trade deadline: "The Texas Rangers, whom Lee helped to the World Series in 2010, dispatched top scout Don Welke to watch one of his recent starts. Texas GM Jon Daniels is believed to prefer Lee to Hamels; after all, Daniels offered Lee well more than $100 million as a free agent two offseasons ago. The Rangers would be more likely to trade minor league third baseman Mike Olt for Lee, than a two-month rental such as Milwaukee’s Zack Greinke. Lee’s no-trade clause allows him to block trades to 21 teams, according to a major-league source. The Rangers and New York Yankees are among the eight teams to which he can be assigned without his permission." (FOXSports.com)

● The trade talk on Josh Johnson has become eminently confusing, with one report indicating the Rangers were willing to move Mike Olt for him and another saying they weren't, and with some within the industry expecting a Johnson trade, and others calling it more of a 50-50 proposition; Jayson Stark does write this, for what it's worth: "An official of one club that spoke with the Marlins' brass told [ESPN] on Wednesday that he would estimate the odds Johnson stays in Miami at '95 percent.' ... An executive of another club reports the Marlins say they will trade Johnson only for a package centered around a young, star-caliber player who isn't arbitration-eligible." (ESPN.com)

● Yesterday, T.R. Sullivan intimated that Zack Greinke was at the top of the Rangers' revised wish list, and speculated that James Shields probably won't become available (at least for a price that Texas would find palatable), while also noting that the Rangers "don't have a great scouting report" on Josh Johnson and that the Phillies appear unwilling to help out with any salary relief in order to facilitate a Cliff Lee trade (MLB.com)

The Rangers Are 58-39

I'm not sure what else you can add other than "great win."