The Michael Young Trade Mystery
This is getting strange. No, scratch that -- it already is strange. So strange that I'm really not sure what to think anymore. Arguably the best and most well-connected baseball reporter in the business (Ken Rosenthal) is standing by his story that the Michael Young trade discussions could culminate in a Rangers-Rockies hook-up as early as Monday, but the beat writers in both Arlington and Denver are either deftly sidestepping or outright refuting the Rosenthal report. And every indication to this point suggests that if the Rangers intend to consummate this deal, they're going to have to eat an enormous chunk of Young's remaining commitment, and receive little of usable value in return.
We've already acknowledged that the enhanced long-term roster/lineup flexibility afforded by a Michael Young trade has a specific value to the Rangers, but, in turn, you're relinquishing (a) short-term depth, (b) the intangible properties that very likely do enhance his value (though to what degree is subject to debate), and (c) contract-subsidizing dollars that progressively diminish the value of a trade to the Rangers. For every extra million dollars kicked in by Texas (provided the value of the trade return doesn't improve), the deal becomes a worse idea for Texas. And if you're so inclined to believe the value-specific bits of what the beat writers are selling us (and filter out the claims that the two teams aren't even talking, which I find especially hard to believe), the Rangers are going to have to kick in $15-20 million (or more), and likely obtain Jose Lopez and/or another spare part for their troubles.
If -- and I repeat, if -- that is the eventual trade that goes down, I'm not going to be particularly fond of it. Eating nearly half of Young's remaining commitment and walking away with nothing to show for it doesn't impart a huge benefit, because depending on the set of contractual numbers you operate from and the amount of money that you predict Texas will kick in, the total savings could end up being only in the $15-20 million range; that's solid, but it also doesn't go nearly as far as it used to. And this somewhat tepid response to this prospective trade configuration comes after donning my cold, emotionless analyst mask; a large part of me feels that the Rangers would, as a whole, prefer to keep Michael Young, and not have to pay him millions of dollars to play elsewhere while receiving only junk in return.
So, why then? Why would Texas make this trade? Is this really as simple as the preceding paragraphs make it out to be? Or is there a compelling force that is pushing the Rangers to make a trade that I suspect they rather would not make if they could help it, all things being considered?
Media types, fans, and bloggers alike tend to tip-toe around the words "demand" and "trade" -- or at least strive to ensure they're not in close proximity to one another -- where Young is concerned, because it's evocative of a certain nasty four-day period during the middle of January two years ago, and because it's a good way to end up being labeled as overtly presumptious and unfair to Young, given that he vacated third base for the sake of Adrian Beltre with minimal outward fuss ... but the little signs are beginning to add up:
● "The Rangers, though, might be reaching a point of no return with Young, who publicly has said he does not want to be traded, but privately has told the club he is unhappy with his reduced role, sources say." (Ken Rosenthal, FOXSports.com)
● "[...] the thought that Young has cooled on his new role with the Rangers in 2011 might be accurate. That's a concern for club officials, especially with the first full-squad, spring-training workout set for Feb. 20." (Jeff Wilson, Fort Worth Star-Telegram)
● Michael Young: "I'm still doing the exact same work because I don't consider myself a DH. I consider myself a baseball player. And everything I wanted to work on before this happened I've still been working on. This isn't something I think I'm going to be doing permanently. [...] I'm not going to let something like this get in the way of where I want to be as a player when my career ends. That's what I try to focus on. I still consider myself to be able to make a big impact on both sides of the ball." (Jon Machota, SportsDayDFW.com)
And, of course, the trade possibilities we're presently talking about. Something just doesn't feel right about this. If this ultimately ends up as an exchange of Young and $20 million for Jose Lopez, you're going to have a difficult time convincing me that Young wasn't the impetus in some form or fashion -- either by indicating that his dissatisfaction with a reduced playing-time arrangement in Texas would be a recurring thorn in the organization's side (and, one would think, abating whatever value is generated by his intangible qualities), or by coming right out and communicating to the team that he wants to play in the field every day, even if that requires being in the employ of another major league team.
I don't profess to have this all figured out (yet), but I do have to think that there is something more to this than what meets the eye.
Analysis, Rumors, The Off-Season
Reader Comments (36)
I think the real reason you get rid of Young, is quite simply, with Napoli and Beltre, Young is no longer the best option at any position as an every day player. Moreland is a better 1B option. Beltre is a better 3B option. Elvis is a better SS option. Kinsler is a better 2B option. Napoli/Murphy as a platoon is a much better DH option.
Now, if you thought MY was OK with riding pine, and being a backup, that may be fine. However, his history shows he wants to play every day, and Ron's history seems to be to accede to the wishes of Veterans. Having that kind of conflict, and MY's "leadership" skills seems like a recipe for disaster. It's one thing for some quiet, player who is content to be a role player, like, say, Frank Catalanotto, to be unhappy about playing time. It's another for a clubhouse leader to be unhappy. To be honest, at this stage of his career, with his limited defensive skills, and his declining hitting, MY really doesn't have all that much more to offer the club than Frank Catalanotto in his declining years.
Except he is much less likely to take a Catalanotto role with as much grace as Frankie did.
While I don't dissagree with djc, tell me again, how this makes us a better ball club?
The most logical destination is L.A. Both teams there need him and he is close to home as in where he lived and went to school. The problem is trading within the AL West. The Dodgers are a good fit but they are a financial mess with cash flow problems due somewhat to bad past contracts. Both still draw 3.5 million and once Spring Training is nearly over they will be looking at Positive Cash Flow again plus Fox is ponying up some green. If JD gets a deal that passes muster before that the Rangers might pull the trigger. Once the season gets close or starts look for the Dodgers to act and the Rangers get one of their pitchers. If a few teams can benefit in some three or four way, but that is remote, it might happen sooner. The Dodgers and Angels would benefit by having MY; one can't and the other won't but wishes they could. I think that wad of cash that the Rangers would have to send to Denver is slowing things down. Look for MY to have a rip snorting good Spring. He will seal the deal with his play.
There's no way JD & Co. move him within the division! Not gonna happen.
Prior to yesterday, I put the chances of the Rangers trading Young at zero. Nolan, JD and Wash had been very supportive of keeping Young publicly. And while what's said by the FO and management has to be taken with a grain of salt... I think guys like Nolan and Wash especially don't like to out and out lie.
Several people said that assurances were given to Michael Young that he would not be traded if he wanted to be here. And had we stopped at Beltre... he might have accepted DH/Utility.
But once we shopped so hard for Thome and Manny and then traded for Napoli... I think Young decided he'd rather play somewhere else. I think Young requesting a trade is the only reason we would ever try this hard to move him, because not having him does cost this team depth.
The fact that Young, JD and Nolan aren't trumpeting the same statements we heard from them since the Winter Meetings when the possibility first came up speaks volumes. We're not hearing "I want to be here and win here" from Young anymore.
He'll be gone by Tuesday probably... and if we're lucky, it'll be a deal that provides some tangible benefit to the 2011 team... but probably not. But if the straw that stirs your drink is stirring discontent... what choice do you have?
@Brandon
If everyone's healthy, a Murphy/Napoli DH platoon would very likely significantly out produce Young offensively. I would actually expect it to out produce what Vlad did last year because of how amazingly Napoli kills LHP and Murphy is very solid against RHP.
The area it hurts us, is if a regular goes down or Moreland slumps, our lineup is weaker than it would be with Young to step in. But that's offset by Blanco's glove as an improved replacement for Young.
I'd rather have the depth than not... but if Young wants to go... he's got to go. My best hope is that the savings afforded would better position us to acquire another player via trade if needed due to significant time lost from injury.
there is a problem in the the clubhouse right now you have a declining veteran who thinks he can still play in every day you have a team that has made every move via trade and free agency that says to him "you cant" people are going to clash if he dosent get his way the only way that happens via trade
Is this the fastest anyone has ever gone from being the "face" of the franchise to the malcontent problem of the franchise?
I don't think he's been the face for a while.
Josh Hamilton is the most prominently marketed player and has been for a little while.
And from a total franchise standpoint... Nolan Ryan is the true face. He's Mr. Ranger.
The Face is going to lose out on a WS ring because of his attitude.
Sad.
Very sad.
I don't see JD making the trade if we have to throw in $20M and we only get back some spare... ya know?
If we are going to pay nearly 1/2 of his contract, JD is going to demand a higher price.
I believe JD is all about making this 2011 team better... and we need to trust him, period...
Is the mystery simply that the media is having a hard time finding baseball to write or talk and have jumped on and made more of the trade rumors than exists? Seems much of what we have read stems from Rosenthal at Fox Sports despite the denials all around from the Rockies, the Rangers and MY himself. What is his real motive?
Personally, I want MY to stay as a Ranger and follow the Paul Molitor path into the HOF.
If you want to see MY follow the Molitor path into the HOF, you might want to see if you can help him score some 'roids and HGH because he is gonna need lots of help. MY as a hitter has always been a pure product of RBiA. .322/.372/.487 at home and .279/.322/.411 on the road for his career.
Bruce,
What denials are you talking about? I haven't heard about any denials this time around from anyone. The denials are like 2 weeks old. If they are going to deny this stuff we need fresh real time denials, and I haven't heard about any of those.
Joe
If we are going to pay upwards of $20M for his contract, we better get a guy like Dexter Fowler in return. He'd remedy our backup CF concern and also could be part of a CF platoon with Borbon as he hits LH pitching fairly well (.291/.375/.796) and has great OB Skills (career 351 OBP).
"It's Deja Vu all over again..."
There's a lot of fence riding, especially from the press. The Clubs are quiet. Too quiet.
Young jumpin' up & down demanding a trade? No, he's smart not to blow his image.
Are we walking on egg shells to preserve image? So far it's the same old mind deal.
Personally; I like Mikey. Pragmatically; MY is not going to be happy tagged "Super Ut".
Will Rangers be better if traded? Maybe closer to fact; worse if they keep in discontent.
Mind Deal & continued speculation... it'll play out before May and probably before ST...
Another day in Ground Hog mode. As Yogi said: "It's Deja Vu all over again..."
One might think that paying $20 - $27 million for a very marginal production gain seems down right inane (assuming that is the total cost of trading Young and whilst also picking up Napoli's contract - and let's not forget the loss of Francisco when picking up Napoli). This is going on the assumption that the acquisition of Napoli will ultimately lead to the dealing of Young.
At first I thought this might be a blunderous attempt at correcting the previous blunder of having lost Lee to FA. Then I compared the roster differences with and without the relevant transactions:
+Lee, +Francisco, +Young
or
-Lee, -Francisco, -Young, +Beltre, +Napoli, +$15 million to spend
Until I made this comparison, none of this MY trade talk was sitting all that well with me. Hopefully, a deal can be made to pick up an ace at some point during the season before the trade deadline. It very likely could be picking up a big contract from a team that is no longer in contention and looking to dump payroll so the extra $15 million could be rather significant.
What I don't understand is all this debate about why this is happening. Young has obviously asked the Rangers to move him. He and JD have had a sour relationship since the meeting when JD told him he was moving from short to third. The math goes like this: Unhappy player plus bad relationship with general manager equals trade.
Still don't see it. The only media type who seems to think something is actually happening is Rosenthal. All the other beat writers seem content to down play his "reports". If this actually has legs one of the local beat writers from either club will eventually confirm that a deal is imminent. So far that hasn't happened yet and with as good as Rosenthal has been in the past he still makes his living by reporting on stories that come second hand from people who aren't willing to be quoted as a source.
Think about all of your past favorite Rangers. How many were traded? How have retired while still a Ranger? This is just the way it happens and it will certainly happen many, many times again. It always comes to down to demands, need or money. Too bad that fans of Young will find ways to blame others for this.
Anyone who has not read Buster Olneys blog this morning you sure need to. It gives a true evaluation if Michael Young's skill set instead a skewed view from some fans who think he is worth nothing. MLB scouts sure think otherwise!
I wouldn't be surprised if Rosenthal's source is MY himself.
I like Hammering Hanks response. We should persue trading MY for more depth at CF with the Rockie's or anyone else.
I don't think anyone is saying he has no value. I think what we're saying is he has no real value as a DH. And Olney's column confirms that. He needs to go somewhere where he can play 2B or 3B every day. That's where his bat plays. As the column says, his bat doesn't play at 1B. And it plays even less at DH. Also, note that Young is pegged in the story as a $5-7m player. That's $15-21m over 3 years. He has $48m remaining. So if Colorado want us to pick up $18-20m, with them paying the remaining $28-30m, that seems like a good deal to me.
MY = Gen Griffey Jr. 2010 - maybe not as advanced a decline but that's the kind of situation the Rangers might be looking at down the line . A vet who thinks he's still the tops and is the vocal leader.
His salary outweighs any good he could do anyway.
Pay the Rox 20 million and get Jose Lopez, who they will dump before the season. Fine with me.
No, I don't hate MY. But this is not the 2004 MY.
The Dodgers seem to be a good fit but their faltering ownership and financial situation is in the way. Matt Kemp has had arguments with the Dodgers' management in the past and was speculated to be traded after his disappointing 2010 campaign. I'd be more willing for the Rangers to trade Michael Young with a prospect or two and $20 + million for Kemp rather than Young and $20 + million-plus to the Rockies for Lopez or whoever else is rumored in the deal. If Matt Kemp can perform even remotely close to his 2009 season, he would surely be an upgrade over Julio Borbon in CF and it would surely lock Josh Hamilton in LF.
I told you guys over and over during the season that if MY is asked to move again, he will not be a part of this club. It's not really hard to convince yourself of that when you think about what he's gone through. He was brought up as a second baseman and was asked to move to replace A-Rod and allow Ian to take over (nothing unusual, he gets the same amount of playing time and later in his career gets a gold glove). Then after his gold glove winning season he is asked to move to another position to make way for a rookie who hasn't proven anything at the major league level. He asked for a trade then! His mentality was that he could play SS for another team but that started to hurt his public image. Now he's being asked to remove himself from part of the game and be a DH. You better believe he wants out of Texas but he doesn't want to hurt his image here.
Michael Young is the face of the franchise to Rangers fans but not to anybody else.
I don't blame Michael one bit for still wanting to play the field regularly. Yeah, I think that Mike has told the team that he would really like to finish his career with Texas, and that he would be willing to move to DH a couple or two years down the line. But I also think that he has told them that at this point in his career, he would rather play as a regular somewhere else than only DH for the Rangers.
The Rangers are looking around trying to accommodate him, but can't find any teams where Michael could be an everyday player in the field and that are willing to take on most of his salary or give the Rangers a top player in return.
Note to the Rangers' front office (I hope that you read this blog): Trading Michael Young will cause of drop in team and fan morale. I was looking forward to attending a game of the opening series with Boston. I suppose the team knows that with corporate tickets, those games will sell out anyway, and that the fans and Michael's teammates get over his loss. I can't help but think that Nolan would not have signed Beltre or traded Michael had he still be solely in charge.
People kill me with "what he has gone through". He's going to end his career having earned nearly $100M!!!!!!! If JD wants him to sell beer, then he needs to sell beer. He can usher Nolan to his seat each day. The players will tell you signing autographs isn't what they're paid to do, so fans shouldn't feel entitled just because we pay their salaries. Well, players aren't paid to manage the team, either, so sit down on the bench, Mr. Young.
Young isn't valueless. The problem is that the true value of the player at this point is much smaller then the value of his contract for the duration. Young is probably worth about as much as David Murphy at this point, 5-7 a year on open market. Young doesn't carry enough of a stick to want him to be a full time DH. He doesn't play defense well enough if you are wanting to be a primarily defensive team.
If we hadn't signed Beltre he would be the 3b again and we probably would have still traded for Napoli or resigned Vlad. Honestly I think we are a better team with Beltre on 3b then we would have been with Young/Vlad.
Young is in one of those really hard positions to work with. Think about it sorta like Emmitt Smith at the end of his Cowboy's career. He isn't the player he was but he wants to be treated like it. Has the past earned the right to be a weight in the future, well yes because in baseball there are guaranteed contracts.
Recent reports have the Rangers paying $20mil of Youngs salary, thats just crazy! To get a spare and nothing else! The Rangers shoudl send him for the Mets to play second base and take back Carlos Beltran to play centerfield, he is owed one year at $19.4 so at the very least we could fill a hole.
Would we even keep Lopez? His obp is terrible. Why not take a chance on some prospects? Personally, with injuries likely, I suspect MY will see more field time than everyone expects, but if you're going to send him somewhere, at lest get someone who might actually play a game for us someday.
Confirmed young wants out if Texas MLB trade rumors per yahoo sports this makes me sad but if jr wants out he had to go IMO
Is Young saying he wants out because the Rangers are forcing him out or because he wants out himself? I read the mlbtraderumors site and it seems like it is more like the Rangers are pushing him out as opposed to responding to him asking for a trade.
In competitive sports, especially pro sports, there are no protected positions. If MY is good enough then he will play somewhere. If not then it is just business as usual and life goes on with or w/o him. I find it ironic that the ellusive goal has always been Post Season success and that was where MY and Vlade blew their careers up. I still have images in my mind of the look on Vlades face in RF after chasing the ball or screwing up. He did not look ready for Prime Time. Even the casual observer could see the contrast between MY and Uribe at 3B in the WS. I'll bet those images have triggered nitemares in JD. The military has PTSD but Ranger brass has PTWSSD. They now know they can get to the station with MY but they can't ride the train to the destination they seek. Buy that man a ticket to the Left Coast or let Mark Cuban buy the NY Mets and take MY with him as a going away gift. MY could be The King of Queens.
JD~ Trade Guru?
Lopez? Please, no thank you. He's a tanker problem, fresh from Seattle.
His contract is not guaranteed, so it's a nothing deal. His talent is a "no fit".
Rox broke record in salary gifts. Do they want to steal Young- nothing back?
This ought to test Daniels real creibility on this trade. We may see a three team
deal to get done. Daniels can get creative, with a good prospect bank account.
I don't see Monday as close, but certainly before players show in spring training.
I'm thinking there's a few GM's calling their owners pleading, "one more bat, sir".
This trade may come out of nowhere. Young could fit most teams repertoire.