What Is Mitch Moreland?
We now interrupt your regularly scheduled Michael Young Trade Watch programming to deliver this important bulletin: Mitch Moreland is seemingly bulletproof, at least as far as his near-term job security is concerned. It's been mentioned time and time again this off-season that Texas is "committed" -- or some variant of the term -- to Mitch Moreland as their starting first baseman in 2011, and it's also been reported that the Rangers' reluctance to deal Moreland helped kill a potential trade for Matt Garza, but neither of these apparent realities does much to quiet the smoldering debate over exactly what he is as a player, and what he can yet become. Is he a nice, cheap, above-average piece that we can expect to see locking down first base through at least 2013-14, or a stopgap measure that the Rangers overvalued and should have dealt for Garza?
Because statistical analysis can only take you so far when discussing a player who has amassed a grand total of 173 major league plate appearances, I decided the best way to attack this question was to enlist the aid of a powerful four-man panel -- Jason Parks (BBTiA, Baseball Prospectus), Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus), Jason Cole (LoneStarDugout.com), and Mike Hindman (BBTiA) -- with far greater exposure to Moreland during his formative minor league years and far superior scouting knowledge to my own, and see how each assessed Moreland as a player both now and going forward:
JASON PARKS
Over-achiever on a collision course with reality, or legit option at first base going forward? Having seen Moreland over the years, I can safely say that, yes, Moreland has far exceeded my somewhat modest expectations. Of course, that doesn’t remove the scouting reports from the equation, and there are still questions about his ability to provide long-term value at the major league level. Looking at his offensive game, I don’t see a player that is going to hit in the middle of the order, but I do see a competent major league hitter.
First of all, his approach to hitting is extremely mature and accepting of adjustment. This is key. Adjustment equals success at the major league level. Moreland’s approach allows him to work himself into favorable situations, and his hit tool allows him to exploit these opportunities to the best of his natural ability. His hands might be his finest attribute, giving him a quick, controlled trigger that can put him into the hitting zone very quickly, and allow him to maneuver the barrel accordingly. This doesn’t make him a great hitter on its own, but it affords him the opportunity to make semi-regular contact and chip away bad pitches to extend the at-bat.
Despite having serious raw strength, Moreland’s swing isn’t overly conducive for in-game power; his bat plane lacks much loft and he doesn’t always fire through his second extension. He should be able to hit 10-15 bombs, with 20-25 doubles during a season, with, let’s say, a ~.275 average (at best) and a ~.360 OBP. When you factor in his average-at-best defense at first base, what does that give you? It gives you a solid major leaguer, but not a player with a ton of value at 1B/DH.
I think Moreland is legit, as in, I think he will produce at the major league level. But he’s not legit if you think he is the first baseman of the future, and he’s not legit if you think Moreland is the missing ingredient in the lineup. All of that said, Moreland has proved doubters wrong for years, including the Rangers (don’t forget, Moreland was seen by many as a relief pitcher rather than a position player). His tools give him a modest ceiling, but his baseball intelligence and ability to adjust to the level of competition will push the tools to the limit of their function.
KEVIN GOLDSTEIN
I'm a big fan of Moreland, he's come against a ton of odds to get where he's gotten, but at the same time, I don't think there's much growth in him. He can really hit, but he doesn't do the other stuff expected for an everyday first baseman. It's average power at best, and he's not an on-base guy in a big way so when you add it all up, he's no more then a second-division starter for the position, and I don't think he'll get better than he is. I will say, I think the platoon issue has been over-stated, as his splits in the minors were rarely offensive. He's the kind of guy who basically holds down the position, and you're not upset with it, but you are looking for something better. As for the both sides of the ball thing, it's first base ... who really cares about the defense that much?
JASON COLE
What has impressed me most about Moreland is his ability to make adjustments at the plate. It’s a large part of why he has developed from former 17th-round pick/potential lefty reliever to big league first baseman. He has a nice line-drive stroke to go with good pitch recognition and a feel for the strike zone. The hit tool and power are both decent –– perhaps a tick above average –– but they aren’t elite tools. While he didn’t play much against lefties (23 PA) in the majors last season, I’ve always felt he sees the ball well and takes good hacks against fellow southpaws. I think he could be adequate against left-handers if the Rangers choose to give him more at-bats against them next season.
I thought he did a good enough job at first base in Arlington, particularly since he’d mostly been a right fielder over the last two seasons. He showed strong instincts, but the tools don’t stand out. I’d say he’s about an average defender at first. His best defensive tool by far is his plus arm, and that obviously isn’t going to come into play very often at first base.
Overall, I think Moreland can solidify himself as a solid second-division regular. He’s not flashy, and the upside isn’t incredible, but he’s definitely a big-league caliber hitter. Whether he’s going to be the Rangers’ first baseman of the future –– I think that’s still up for plenty of debate.
MIKE HINDMAN
I became a believer in Mitch Moreland about a month into his stint in Frisco back in 2009 when I saw him handle Double-A pitchers without issue and without any of the holes in his swing that I'd been hearing about. Over the years, I began to develop a rule that I don't pay much attention to what a college hitter does until he does it in Double-A, so up until that point, Moreland didn't really register with me.
In 2011, assuming he gets around 450 plate appearances, I think it's reasonable to expect Moreland to deliver a .280/.350 /.450 slash line with 12-15 homers. Given the chance to hang around and continue to get opportunities, I expect him to improve fairly significantly as the summer progresses. He was one of those guys who consistently improved his results with each passing month at each level as a minor leaguer, regularly turning in huge Augusts.
I think there's probably a 60 percent chance that Moreland turns out to be a squarely average first baseman, a 20 percent chance he blossoms into something more (because of his track record of making adjustments and improving at each level -- in a perfect world, he's a middle-class man's Will Clark), and a 20 percent chance he bombs. I do not think that he's going to be a platoon guy in the long run because his splits coming up were always pretty even. I am not a fan of his defense at this point, but he seems to be athletic enough to figure it out given more experience and instruction at the position.
But take my assessment of Moreland -- or any prospect for that matter -- with a giant grain of salt. I simply don't do the work that the Jasons or KG does in this arena anymore and I defer to their evaluations.
[Many thanks to Kevin, Mike, Jason, and the Professor for their gracious assistance and insight. For their troubles, each will receive a stunning Casio LCD watch worth upwards of $10, a gift certificate to Taco Bueno (redeemable only after 10 p.m.), and an autographed portrait of Tim Curry in drag from the set of the 'Rocky Horror Picture Show.']
Analysis, The Off-Season
Reader Comments (68)
Great read enjoyed reading everyones thoughts on moreland. I agree with Jason Cole's take the best although I do think like Joe moreland projects for more power than the panel said. If he gets the AB's I expect him to hit around 25 hr's. Also I do like the poor mans Will Clark comp because that is what I thought the first time I saw him swing in spring training last year. I think he has the same type of doubles power as Clark , but will never hit for the avg he did. Although the it looks like his obp will make up the difference.
@ Scooby I agree with you how you ranked the first basemen expect I would put Tex ahead of Agon by one spot but the rest I agree excatly.
What about pushing Yorvit to 130-140 games, releasing Treanor and letting Napoli pick up 30-40 games at catcher. That would allow us to add Gentry for speed off the bench and a CF platoon and if Moreland is hot he can pick up the extra 1st base at bats.
I know he's never played more than about 110 games but is there a reason why you wouldn't want to push him to 130 or 140?
The biggest downside of course would be not having Matt's defensive depth around.
I'd be very happy with an average or better player, considering I never quite expected even that. Average players have their use. Most championship squads give plenty of playing time to guys who are mediocre at best, it's hard to have an entire every day squad of above average guys. And, though that could certainly be improved upon, it wouldn't even be a problem as a first baseman on the future if it wasn't.
That said, the 10-15 home runs thing multiple of you cite seems a little low. He hit 10 in his rookie season in just over 200 PAs, 50 of those PAs coming against post season talent. He plays his home games in a park that inflates lefty home run rates by almost 20%. ZiPS has him hitting 18 this year (obviously could be lower if he doesn't get the playing time that projects). It's not a whole lot lower than I would bet he averages in his prime, but I will bet even you esteemed scouts that it's low. We'll see. If he only gets 450, like MJH suggests, 12 would actually be right in line with the rate ZiPS suggests, but I would bet if he's hitting like that in his age 25-30 seasons, he'll be getting more than 450 PAs.
On a related note, MJH and the Professor both give nifty offensive projections that I don't find too hard to believe. A guy going .350 OBP and .450 SLG is about a 3 WAR player at first given average defense and a neutral park (not sure if MJH means neutral park, so adjust it down a little if he doesn't) with 650 PAs, about 2.5 with 550, and about 2 WAR with 450. With a line like the Professor suggests. The more specific results the professor suggests are a tad lower, but still pretty much what everything else suggests: roughly an average player (around 2 WAR given 650 PAs). Certainly a guy you can upgrade over, but also not someone you fret about replacing. If that guy is the most of your concerns, your team is probably really good.
I have a whole lot more confidence in him than I ever did Chris Davis, albeit with less optimism over what he could be. It's nice to feel confident that first base can at least be okay, though.
This was a nice read.
I always see the "he is very strong, but his compact swing isn't conducive to hitting a ton of HR's" stance with Moreland. My question is - can they fix that and make it "less compact", or whatever you do, to generate more power? Or would that be messing with the swing to much and we should take him for how he is? I love Moreland, by the way, just always been curious about this.
I love this bit of professional analysis from Goldstein. "As for the both sides of the ball thing, it's first base ... who really cares about the defense that much?"
@Geno - The compact swing is a good thing. His power projection suffers because of his bat plane. If you take away Moreland's compact swing, you'll end up with Chris Davis.
The glaring omission from our list of top 1Bs is Prince Fielder. For some reason, that just came to me. There are about 10 you could argue about being in the top-5.
I tend to agree with Goldstein. I look at 1B a lot like a 2nd DH position.
@Scooby - I almost agree there, but Prince Fielder is exceptionally bad at picking the ball out of the dirt. Defense isn't so important that I should downgrade Cabrera, so I'll revise my ranking to an extent (Pujols, Votto, Cabrera, Tex, Morneau). However, there are exceptions on the far ends of the spectrum for 1B defense (Teixeira gets an upgrade for a very good glove and Fielder gets a downgrade for being outright horrible).
No other article will break it down on Moreland any better than this one.
The interesting thing about all this good insight for the analytical baseball fan is that outside influences
can make or break any prediction we are trying to make about Moreland.
In other words; if Moreland does not get traded, if he does not get injured, if somebody in Spring Training does not kicks his butt, if he does not rub Wash in the wrong way, if he does not mistakenly open his girlfriend's prescription pill bottle..... if all goes well, he will be a great 1st basemen.
My Guess he's our new Pete O'brien.... i can live with that
Pete O'Brien - Now that's a good comp for Mitch Moreland. O'Brien didn't strike out as much and had a little more power, but who knows- power is the last tool to develop.
If Mitch is only barely average at best, what the heck have the Rangers been doing to get better? A better question is, who are these league-average first basemen that we can't seem to add to our roster? As several folks listed above, there have been quite a few stinkers that I can't believe have held a candle to MM. Did we actually have high hopes for any of them? Are we really looking at settling for 600 replacement-level PAs at 1B again this yr if Mitch regresses? Maybe Napoli ends up being the guy we really needed, but I'd like to think MM can at least hold up his end of a pretty decent platoon at first.
It's probably not been that long actually since Chris Davis was thought to have a solid future, and of course, we had high hopes for Smoak. 1B was surely not our top priority last winter, but why not this yr? I guess there probably wasn't a lot of value out there. Pena? Dunn? D Lee? Martinez? All were expensive, and a couple of those aren't probably league average at this point.
I'd sure like to believe Don Welke has somebody scoped out for acquisition that we could depend on for 2.5 to 3.5 WAR most yrs. That would allow a Napoli/Murphy platoon to be a pretty good combo at DH.
We've got to have some base-level salary guys out there otherwise, things get costly real quick. A proven consistent above average veteran on the free gent market at any position is millions a year.
Adding to johnsamo way of thinking; if you look at what Moreland made and what he produced, he is one of the best we got.
Players in a "situation" like him are essential to a team with some high salary big dogs..... (don't want to start another MY debate so I will mention no names) .
If we find somebody better in ST, thats great, but Mitch is a hard-working underdog who may suprise some people this year..... and for what we pay him.... what do we have to loose?!?!
I would certainly agree you can't pay premium salaries to every regular on the team. The problem becomes when you have a position on your team that can't produce above replacement level. We had 2 such positions last yr, catcher and 1B. You could also put a long list of unsuccessful catchers since Pudge left.
I think we'd be pretty well off if Mitch and Nap and Torvitt are all above replacement level this yr. I think this defense is going to be really good, and as long as Borbon is also not a disaster and the injury bug is kept at bay, this team could look to score well over 800 runs this yr.
Does anyone else thin Billy Butler is a good comp for Moreland's top-end potential? Something like .318 with a solid walk rate, 15-20 HR, and 40-45 2B?
Mitch Moreland = Mike Lamb
Joey,
I would love to see "What is _________" for other guys as well throughout Spring Training. Especially for some of the lesser known guys. I'd love to see scouting reports on our pitchers with higher upside. I'm fairly new to the site so some of this may have been posted ages ago. Maybe re posting certain things could be good for stirring the spring pot.
What is Tanner Scheppers?
Beltre
Hurley
Kirkman (I'd love to hear about his curve)
Perez
Tateyama