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« Sunday Morning Open Thread: Five Questions | Main | Hamilton Signs Two-Year Deal; Michael Young Trade "Not Likely" »
Friday
Feb112011

What Is Mitch Moreland?

We now interrupt your regularly scheduled Michael Young Trade Watch programming to deliver this important bulletin: Mitch Moreland is seemingly bulletproof, at least as far as his near-term job security is concerned. It's been mentioned time and time again this off-season that Texas is "committed" -- or some variant of the term -- to Mitch Moreland as their starting first baseman in 2011, and it's also been reported that the Rangers' reluctance to deal Moreland helped kill a potential trade for Matt Garza, but neither of these apparent realities does much to quiet the smoldering debate over exactly what he is as a player, and what he can yet become. Is he a nice, cheap, above-average piece that we can expect to see locking down first base through at least 2013-14, or a stopgap measure that the Rangers overvalued and should have dealt for Garza?

Because statistical analysis can only take you so far when discussing a player who has amassed a grand total of 173 major league plate appearances, I decided the best way to attack this question was to enlist the aid of a powerful four-man panel -- Jason Parks (BBTiA, Baseball Prospectus), Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus), Jason Cole (LoneStarDugout.com), and Mike Hindman (BBTiA) -- with far greater exposure to Moreland during his formative minor league years and far superior scouting knowledge to my own, and see how each assessed Moreland as a player both now and going forward:

JASON PARKS

Over-achiever on a collision course with reality, or legit option at first base going forward? Having seen Moreland over the years, I can safely say that, yes, Moreland has far exceeded my somewhat modest expectations. Of course, that doesn’t remove the scouting reports from the equation, and there are still questions about his ability to provide long-term value at the major league level. Looking at his offensive game, I don’t see a player that is going to hit in the middle of the order, but I do see a competent major league hitter.

First of all, his approach to hitting is extremely mature and accepting of adjustment. This is key. Adjustment equals success at the major league level. Moreland’s approach allows him to work himself into favorable situations, and his hit tool allows him to exploit these opportunities to the best of his natural ability. His hands might be his finest attribute, giving him a quick, controlled trigger that can put him into the hitting zone very quickly, and allow him to maneuver the barrel accordingly. This doesn’t make him a great hitter on its own, but it affords him the opportunity to make semi-regular contact and chip away bad pitches to extend the at-bat.

Despite having serious raw strength, Moreland’s swing isn’t overly conducive for in-game power; his bat plane lacks much loft and he doesn’t always fire through his second extension. He should be able to hit 10-15 bombs, with 20-25 doubles during a season, with, let’s say, a ~.275 average (at best) and a ~.360 OBP. When you factor in his average-at-best defense at first base, what does that give you? It gives you a solid major leaguer, but not a player with a ton of value at 1B/DH.

I think Moreland is legit, as in, I think he will produce at the major league level. But he’s not legit if you think he is the first baseman of the future, and he’s not legit if you think Moreland is the missing ingredient in the lineup. All of that said, Moreland has proved doubters wrong for years, including the Rangers (don’t forget, Moreland was seen by many as a relief pitcher rather than a position player). His tools give him a modest ceiling, but his baseball intelligence and ability to adjust to the level of competition will push the tools to the limit of their function.

KEVIN GOLDSTEIN

I'm a big fan of Moreland, he's come against a ton of odds to get where he's gotten, but at the same time, I don't think there's much growth in him. He can really hit, but he doesn't do the other stuff expected for an everyday first baseman. It's average power at best, and he's not an on-base guy in a big way so when you add it all up, he's no more then a second-division starter for the position, and I don't think he'll get better than he is. I will say, I think the platoon issue has been over-stated, as his splits in the minors were rarely offensive. He's the kind of guy who basically holds down the position, and you're not upset with it, but you are looking for something better. As for the both sides of the ball thing, it's first base ... who really cares about the defense that much?

JASON COLE

What has impressed me most about Moreland is his ability to make adjustments at the plate. It’s a large part of why he has developed from former 17th-round pick/potential lefty reliever to big league first baseman. He has a nice line-drive stroke to go with good pitch recognition and a feel for the strike zone. The hit tool and power are both decent –– perhaps a tick above average –– but they aren’t elite tools. While he didn’t play much against lefties (23 PA) in the majors last season, I’ve always felt he sees the ball well and takes good hacks against fellow southpaws. I think he could be adequate against left-handers if the Rangers choose to give him more at-bats against them next season.

I thought he did a good enough job at first base in Arlington, particularly since he’d mostly been a right fielder over the last two seasons. He showed strong instincts, but the tools don’t stand out. I’d say he’s about an average defender at first. His best defensive tool by far is his plus arm, and that obviously isn’t going to come into play very often at first base.

Overall, I think Moreland can solidify himself as a solid second-division regular. He’s not flashy, and the upside isn’t incredible, but he’s definitely a big-league caliber hitter. Whether he’s going to be the Rangers’ first baseman of the future –– I think that’s still up for plenty of debate.

MIKE HINDMAN

I became a believer in Mitch Moreland about a month into his stint in Frisco back in 2009 when I saw him handle Double-A pitchers without issue and without any of the holes in his swing that I'd been hearing about. Over the years, I began to develop a rule that I don't pay much attention to what a college hitter does until he does it in Double-A, so up until that point, Moreland didn't really register with me.

In 2011, assuming he gets around 450 plate appearances, I think it's reasonable to expect Moreland to deliver a .280/.350 /.450 slash line with 12-15 homers. Given the chance to hang around and continue to get opportunities, I expect him to improve fairly significantly as the summer progresses. He was one of those guys who consistently improved his results with each passing month at each level as a minor leaguer, regularly turning in huge Augusts.

I think there's probably a 60 percent chance that Moreland turns out to be a squarely average first baseman, a 20 percent chance he blossoms into something more (because of his track record of making adjustments and improving at each level -- in a perfect world, he's a middle-class man's Will Clark), and a 20 percent chance he bombs. I do not think that he's going to be a platoon guy in the long run because his splits coming up were always pretty even. I am not a fan of his defense at this point, but he seems to be athletic enough to figure it out given more experience and instruction at the position. 

But take my assessment of Moreland -- or any prospect for that matter -- with a giant grain of salt.  I simply don't do the work that the Jasons or KG does in this arena anymore and I defer to their evaluations.

[Many thanks to Kevin, Mike, Jason, and the Professor for their gracious assistance and insight. For their troubles, each will receive a stunning Casio LCD watch worth upwards of $10, a gift certificate to Taco Bueno (redeemable only after 10 p.m.), and an autographed portrait of Tim Curry in drag from the set of the 'Rocky Horror Picture Show.']

Reader Comments (68)

Damn, what does a 'little' like me gotta do for that Bueno gift card?!?!

February 11, 2011 at 6:55 AM | Unregistered CommenterMarktown

I see that there are two considerations that have made the Rangers hesitant to trade Moreland--
1) They don't have anyone as good or better to take his place; and
2) The Rangers have several of their former first basemen putting up big numbers for other teams.

February 11, 2011 at 7:08 AM | Unregistered CommenterBobbyinBryan

With All Stars and / or potential All Stars at so many other positions I would think an average to slightly bove average First Baseman would play out well here. Especially when upgrading at that position would have to come from outside the organization and utilize resources that would be better used or kept for use to land a starting pitcher.

February 11, 2011 at 7:43 AM | Unregistered CommenterTD

Hmmm... so what are the chances that Moreland pulls a Chris Davis and hits .180 with 0 homers and 75 K's during April and May?

February 11, 2011 at 7:44 AM | Unregistered CommenterWWJJD?

I'm hoping he turns into Mark Grace... or at least a poor man's version of him.

February 11, 2011 at 8:02 AM | Unregistered Commentermatchst1ck

Bobby, I'd put those considerations this way. Either:
1) Someone(s) high up in the org feels strongly that Moreland is more than a 2nd division starter or (more likely, in my opinion)
2) There is a lot more information that we don't have about the Garza talks and we should not simply view this as the Rangers simply weren't going to give up Moreland in trade.

February 11, 2011 at 8:08 AM | Unregistered Commentert ball

If we can assume roughly league average production from Mitch (~105 wRC+), that will be a significant upgrade from Smoak/Cantu/Davis/Garko from last year, and I feel pretty good about Mitch being serviceable in the field. I am a Mitch'"Don't Call me Bunk" Moreland fan.

February 11, 2011 at 8:09 AM | Unregistered CommenterJesse

This is awesome, I love these kind of breakdowns. So the question remains, is it smart for the Rangers to be guaranteeing Mitch's starting spot? Or is there a decent chance MY/Napoli/Murph would do a better job with those ABs. Basically Murph backs up the outfield, and Young the infield, and Napoli occasionally at C, but other than those games you have 4 guys for 2 spots at 1st and DH. Is Mitch good enough force the other 3 to share the DH spot? Or should we be looking for Mitch to only play 80-100 games? Either way MY getting traded would make a nice Napoli/Murph platoon at DH.

February 11, 2011 at 8:34 AM | Unregistered Commenterrangerjake

If Moreland hits HR's at the same pace he did last year and gets 600 at bats in the event MY is traded and Napoli plays almost all of his time at DH he would hit around 30 HR's. Wouldn't that put him at least at an .850 OPS with a .275 BA and a good OBP deriving from lots of walks? But wouldn't an .850 OPS at 1st be only just above average? There are some amazing hitters at 1st throughout the league.

Maybe he got lucky with all those HR's in such a short time last year? But I actually think he is going to be better than he was last year so maybe any luck will be offset by more development.

Taking all of this into consideration I can't agree with people placing him at 10-15 HR's although perhaps his numbers will go down with more exposure to LHP.

At the pace he hit them last year he would hit 25 HR's in 500 PA's.

February 11, 2011 at 8:42 AM | Unregistered CommenterJoe

Mitch Moreland = Kevin Millar
Pass the Jack Daniels

February 11, 2011 at 8:44 AM | Unregistered CommenterCowboyUp in Massachusetts

"Is he a nice, cheap, above-average piece that we can expect to see locking down first base through at least 2013-14"

YES, which BTW is a serious upgrade over the parade that has attempte to play 1B since Tex left.

Fun trivia - try to name everyone who ha splayed 1B since the Tex trade; I know that I can't but some stst ninja can probably find a list. Be very interesting to see all the names.

February 11, 2011 at 8:49 AM | Unregistered CommenterJon

BTW, Fangraphs has Mitch at a plus 0.7 WAR in 2010 and projects him as a plus 2.0 WAR in 2011.

Not spectacular, but not to shabby either. With all the soon to be high paid All Stars like Andrus, Hamilton, etc. an organization needs a few players like Cruz, Moreland, and Murphy who give you additional WAR at low cost.

February 11, 2011 at 8:58 AM | Unregistered CommenterJon

@Cowboyup - you may very well be right. I was trying to think of a good comp and you seem to have nailed it.
I hope we're both wrong... but I don't feel the same as most of the Moreland supporters. I see a guy that's going to struggle next year and that we will all talk about finding his replacement at the AS break.
Again, I hope I'm wrong...

February 11, 2011 at 9:02 AM | Unregistered CommenterPabloesque

From Anic on the other thread.

Seriously watch this people, it is hilarious.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6-ks_UP988&feature=youtube_gdata_player

not that I'm trying to talk about MY, please no. Mitch Moreland is a much better discussion.

This is funny though, and for those terrified MY might stay hopefully it will lighten up your day.

The best part is when the kid takes his hat off! ROFL.

February 11, 2011 at 9:04 AM | Unregistered CommenterJoe

Mitch hit a HR every 19 PA's last year for 9 in 175 PA's.

He would have to hit one every 60 PA's to hit 10 HR's over a season of 600 PA's. If he matched his pace from last year he would hit around 30.

Over a season of 500 PA's he would have to hit 1 HR every 50 PA's to hit 10 HR's. Matching his pace from last year would put him at about 26,

Over a season of 450 PA's he would have to hit one HR every 45 PA's to hit 10 HR's. Matching his pace from last year he would hit around 23.

Lets split the difference for a season of 600 PA's.

If he hit one HR every 19 PA's he would match his pace from last year.

If he hit one HR every 60 PA's he would hit 10 HR's.

What if he hit one HR every 40 PA's over 600 PA's: that is 15 HR's which is not far off from some of the estimates above.

I just hope he can manage something better than that but perhaps not as good as last year's pace: one HR every 30 PA's over a season of 600 PA's would put him at 20 HR's. I find this to be a better estimate with potential for up to 30 HR's if he gets hot for an extended period. All of this of course is only if he doesn't have a Chris Davis type slump next year.

February 11, 2011 at 9:21 AM | Unregistered CommenterJoe

Joe, that video is absolutely hilarious! To be honest, it kind of levels me out about the whole saga, because I think I will feel just about the same way when Michael Young is no longer a Texas Ranger, no matter the circumstances.

P.S. I like me some Mitch Moreland, but Rangerjake had a great comment asking if Moreland is a better player to take at-bats from Murphy and/or Napoli.

February 11, 2011 at 9:33 AM | Unregistered CommenterGrin and Bear it

Great idea to bring in a panel.

Not a lot of variation among their answers, though they all seem impressed that Moreland has made the adjustments to get as far as he has made it.

What sticks out to me is that Moreland's AVG-OBP difference was larger in the majors last year than on the farm. The question is this: Did he make further refinements/adjustments or is he due for a regression?

It looks like he played very sparingly against LHP, and maybe that is one of the reasons his AVG-OBP difference was higher in the majors. His AVG-OBP difference was about the same against RHP (.084) and LHP (.072), but his OPS was considerably higher against RHP.

I like the plan to platoon Moreland and Napoli at 1B. It seems very likely the Rangers get at least .800 OPS out of that platoon.

February 11, 2011 at 9:35 AM | Unregistered Commenterrooster

Grin,

Yeah, the one thing about that is that Napoli must be in the lineup against almost all LHP as he is one of the best hitters against LHP in baseball as the Newberg Report email indicated at the time of the trade.

If Moreland has to sit to get Napoli in there against LHP so be it.

I think to be realistic, especially now, if MY stays I can't see Murphy getting many at bats unless someone gets hurt. I hate this because I want him in the lineup but MY will be given at bats over hiim and they have very similar OPS numbers while Murphy is somewhat better against RHP. Regardless I think MY gets his at bats and Wash has said as much. It is a difficult situation no doubt.

So bottom line, Napoli will get his PA's against LHP. If that means Moreland doesn't play 1st those games I think Wash won't have a problem with that (maybe Nap can catch sometimes as well). I think the most games MY will sit is probably 20, which doesn't provide a lot of PA's for Murphy in the absence of injury. That sucks but MY is a leader in the clubhouse and provides much needed depth if someone goes down. I think when it is all said and done MY is more valuable to the team than meets the eye when you look at his stats, not just because of leadership but also because of the depth he provides. Without him we are left with Blanco's bat in the event of injury, and what if Beltre doesn't produce like he did last year? Unless we get something good JD is not going to trade MY. He was willing to do it as long as he could sign Guerrero but that ship has sailed and at the same time MY asked for a trade (I do not think that was a coincidence).

Joe

February 11, 2011 at 9:47 AM | Unregistered CommenterJoe

Wash has promised to get The Face his at bats and I believe him.

Therefore, as Joe states above Napoli will platoon at 1B which is fine. Treanor is the proper backup at C.

The overall loser?

My favorite blue collar player Murphy. He only plays as a sub in the OF, barring injury or a Borbon melt down and only rarely gets to DH; perhaps when Young subs for 2b/SS/3B. Of course, considering the traditional Kinsler ankle sprain........................

February 11, 2011 at 10:17 AM | Unregistered CommenterJon

"Fun trivia - try to name everyone who ha splayed 1B since the Tex trade; I know that I can't but some stst ninja can probably find a list. Be very interesting to see all the names."

I don't the full answer to this, but I know the list will include the names Chris Shelton and Joaquin Arias *shudders*

February 11, 2011 at 10:41 AM | Unregistered Commenterjornbrock

Jason Parks is a good guy.

February 11, 2011 at 10:45 AM | Unregistered CommenterPryor

Mitch Moreland
Chris Davis
Justin Smoak
Juaquin Arias
Andrew Jones
Frank Catalanoto
Jarod Saltalamachia
Hank Blalock
Jason Botts
I know im missing at least one but i wanted to give it a shot

February 11, 2011 at 10:51 AM | Unregistered CommenterMartin

Ben Brousard
Chris Shelton
and im not sure but maybe
Brad Wilkerson

February 11, 2011 at 10:54 AM | Unregistered CommenterMartin

Way to go guys!

Boy does that list bring back some really, really bad memories. Like the demise of the popular Hank Blalock. The debate over how many (500?) bats Jason Botts should get before throwing in the towel on him. (Didn't he wind up in japan?) How happy everyone was when the Rangers acquired "The Cat".

Mitch is looking better and better........................................................

February 11, 2011 at 11:10 AM | Unregistered CommenterJon

I like "The Cat" for Moreland, better than "Moose" which was suggested on the latest TR Sullivan inbox.

February 11, 2011 at 11:20 AM | Unregistered CommenterJoe

Jon,

I think its possible MM gets some at bats against LHP when MY plays the field, but those might be best left for Murphy. But with MY only backing up Kinsler and Beltre I dont see that happening for more than MAX 30 games a year (morel like max 20 probably) in the absence of injury. Maybe MY can sit another 20 games getting Murphy max 50 games, 200 PA's and more in the event of injury.

I only see Murphy getting PA's when MY plays the field against RHP when Napoli sits or catches and Moreland plays 1st. I could also see him getting at bats when Napoli catches against LHP if MY could play 1st for those games, but I'm not sure I see that happening much.

Joe

February 11, 2011 at 11:25 AM | Unregistered CommenterJoe

Hank Blalock
Chris Davis
Brad Wilkerson
Andruw Jones
Frank Catalanotto
Mitch Moreland
Justin Smoak
Ramon Vazquez
Ben Broussard
Chris Shelton
Max Ramirez
Jason Botts
Matt Kata
Jorge Cantu
Joaquin Arias
Ryan Garko
Esteban German

February 11, 2011 at 11:37 AM | Unregistered CommenterDave H

And yes I left Jarod Saltalamacchia off my list, oops. I tried to confirm that Murphy may have played at least one inning there, but couldn't find any evidence using Play Index.

February 11, 2011 at 11:46 AM | Unregistered CommenterDave H

I'm probably basing too much off a small sample size, but on the biggest stage the game has to offer Moreland performed fantastically, both at the plate (1.300+ OPS in the WS) and in the field with his glove (I recall being told he was a below average fielder). Contrast his performance to the rest of his teammates and I think it forces you to reassess his potential. Maybe the hitting mechanics Prof Parks mentions will revert him back to his "true" form, but to watch somebody grow over a course of a month (his hitting improved in each series) in the most pressure packed situations suggests to me that it's too early to pigeon-hole him.

February 11, 2011 at 12:13 PM | Unregistered CommenterRangerFan in Montana

#1 I don't know of "a lot" of former Rangers putting up big number for other organizations. Yes, Adrian Gonzalez has done well, but he is also a high dollar commodity today.

I feel that Mitch Moreland will be a GOOD to VERY GOOD 1B until the Ranger have the ability or opportunity to go get ELITE! Personally, while I understand that Mitch has a limited ceiling, I do think that he will continue to improve. I think that both defense and power will improve over the next 2-3 years. I believe that there will always be people who want "MORE" from 1B, but until the Rangers truly have the resources and the opportunity, Moreland is a very good option and a very good 1B.

February 11, 2011 at 12:43 PM | Unregistered CommenterTris Speaker

Tris,

Travis Hafner(granted most of his ABs are at DH, but he came up as a 1B)
Mark Teixeira
Adrian Gonzalez
Carlos Pena
Justin Smoak now in Seattle

That's a pretty solid list of ex-Rangers 1B, specifically Teixeira and Gonzalez. Those two are easily top five 1B in MLB.

February 11, 2011 at 1:15 PM | Unregistered CommenterGrin and Bear it

Woah spring training hero Matt Kata? Flashbacks.

February 11, 2011 at 1:19 PM | Unregistered CommenterFullerTron

In talking about playing time for Murph...You guys seem to forget about the injury proneness within our OF, as well as the playing time when Borbon slumps. You could also throw in his spot starts to rest other people. Everyone will get their at bats. Don't worry yourself about it.

February 11, 2011 at 1:21 PM | Unregistered CommenterCorey Bledsoe

DaveH,

Excellent! How did you come up with that list? If you say memory; well you are very scary stat geek!

February 11, 2011 at 1:23 PM | Unregistered CommenterJon

He's the greatest first baseman in Rangers World Series' history.

February 11, 2011 at 1:25 PM | Unregistered CommenterDan

@Jon - certainly not from memory -- I wish. I used Baseball-Reference.com's Play Index tool. It costs $6 a month or $36 for a full year subscription. It's pretty useful if you ever get curious about anything like this, a particular game, records, or streaks. For some reason when I first did the search, I just didn't write down Salty's name.

February 11, 2011 at 1:37 PM | Unregistered CommenterDave H

What sticks with me are the two hits that he got off of Mo Rivera (and just missing a third) in the ALCS.

Hard to get a smaller sample-size, but considering who he was up against, that's not a bad post-season audition.

He reminds me of Mike Hargrove with more power.

February 11, 2011 at 2:42 PM | Unregistered CommenterTZig

Yes, I remember Teixeira and am also well aware of the Adrian Gonzalez trade and I didn't give a full set of caveats in my last post. I am NOT aware of a number of EX-Ranger 1B that are around putting up big numbers that do NOT receive big contracts. The notion seemed to be floated that the Rangers were supplying 1B for the league. The Rangers got a great return when Teixeira left and only Gonzalez departure was a mistake to me. In fairness, Gonzalez would never have been dealt, but Teixeira kept assuring Texas/JD/Hicks that he wanted to sign long term with Texas, which was an obvious lie when viewed with the luxury of hindsight.

Teixeira and Gonzalez are two of the highest paid players in the major leagues and both is productive. Carlos Pena washed out with multiple orgs before finally putting things together, but he is also highly paid today.

Mitch Moreland seems to be a very good option until the Rangers want to pay for the Elite first baseman! Yes, someday the Rangers may be so good all throught the pitching staff and at each position, but until that day, Moreland is a great option at a great price.

February 11, 2011 at 2:47 PM | Unregistered CommenterTris Speaker

Ways of getting Murphy playing time without docking MY too much time. I am sure Wash has thought about this because he keeps assuring Michael that he will get his at bats.

Murph plays LF for 20 games while Hammy plays CF (this assumes that Borbon will hold down CF with both glove and bat for the other 142). These games should be against RHP.

He plays LF for 25 games while MY subs in for Kinsler (15) and Beltre (10) (this assumes that neither of these guys get injured). Moreland plays 1st and Napoli sits, Josh or Cruz play DH. These games would need to be against RHP because Napoli will be sitting (not that that is necessary).

He plays 10 games in LF while Napoli catches against LHP, MY plays 1st, and Josh DH's. This is rather unlikely because it would be Murphy the lefty against LHP.

He plays up to 20 games in LF while MY sits and Hamilton and Cruz DH.

He plays 12 games in LF while Hamilton and Cruz rest.

All of this operates on the assumption that Moreland won't be seeing too much LHP with Napoli playing 1st for almost all of those games, and if Moreland were to play 1st for these games and Napoli DH you are sitting Young so that you can get Murphy and Moreland in the lineup against LHP which doesn't make much sense. The other assumption here is that Napoli doesn't need hardly any PA's against RHP. If you want to expose Moreland to LHP more then I think you could do it when Napoli catches for 10-20 games, but you could also get Murphy in the lineup with this type of setup. Like I said, I find it unlikely but you might want them to see at least 10 games a year against LHP.

So, it actually all adds up nicely for Murphy:

20 while MY sits
12 while Hamilton and Cruz rest assuming they stay healthy
25 while Borbon sits
25 while MY plays at 2nd and 3rd
10 while Napoli catches and MY plays 1st (although this is unlikely but you might want to split 20 games like this between Moreland and Murphy to keep them sharp against southpaws)

92

That's 92 games, and even if Napoli only plays 1st against LHP and never catches that's still 82 games. That is about 330 PA's almost all against RHP.

I'm pretty sure Murphy would be very happy with that considering the depthy team that JD is fielding, and I think getting him in the lineup against RHP would be good for our offense.

So the question relevant to this thread is this: are you comfortable with Moreland getting 80-90% of his at bats against RHP while Napoli plays almost all games against LHP at 1st?

To me that is the biggest sacrifice for getting everyone at bats (Murphy, MY, Napoli, and Moreland). I don't like it but I think it is what is best for the team, and if you want to get Moreland more exposure against LHP then sit Napoli if he is cold or let him catch a few more games if he is hot. Also, in this scenario Beltre, Kinsler get good rest while Hamilton and Cruz get rest at DH. 13 or so games at DH is good rest for our OF sluggers and they would also get about 6 days off each. I think that kind of rest can make a difference if it is well placed between off days.

February 11, 2011 at 3:57 PM | Unregistered CommenterJoe

I think this would be a pretty bad ass offense with plenty of depth to boot if there is serious injury.

It makes no sense to trade MY right now, not so much because he will put up better numbers than Moreland, Murphy, and Napoli. but because they will not outshine him at the plate THAT much. And his value in depth if Kinsler or Beltre go down and in clubhouse leadership outweigh any players we will get in return for a trade we are begging someone for. MY will be here one more year, we will win the Series, and he will be traded during the winter meetings so that he can play a position for the rest of his career.

I much prefer a DH in flux to a professional DH, it makes the team better in many ways if you have the kind of depth we have and can sacrifice power production at that spot form a veteran defensively challenged slugger.

February 11, 2011 at 4:03 PM | Unregistered CommenterJoe

@Joe - don't look at Murphy vs LHP in a vacuum. Remember that Murphy vs LHP > Borbon vs LHP (at least so far). Other than that I certainly agree that there are ways to get Murphy playing time even before we account for injuries.

February 11, 2011 at 4:19 PM | Unregistered CommenterDave H

Dave H,

I see what you are saying, but I really really don't want Hamilton to play more than 20-30 games in CF. I would like a Gentry addition for a CF platoon if he could get on base enough and steal bases, but we don't have the roster space without dropping Treanor in favor of Napoli which is probably a bad idea as tempting as it is from an offensive standpoint.

And I won't bring up my arguments about Blanco (oops) not being worth a roster spot if all he will do is backup Andrus. Having the 25th man flexibility would be nice but having the better defense at catcher is probably better.

Has anyone ever wondered whether Torrealba can catch more games, maybe 130? That would make the sting of a Treanor departure less as Napoli would only have to catch like 32 games but it would increase the likelihood of injury at which point we would be up Cash/Teagarden creek without a bat. Seems like something to think about though, might make the team better.

Joe

February 11, 2011 at 4:30 PM | Unregistered CommenterJoe

Why all the hate for Napoli's defense? Look it up - He throws out about 24% of base stealers. Not good... until you look up Treanor and Torrealba - about 26% and 29%.

To me a Napoli/Torrealba straight LHP/RHP platoon makes TONS of sense. Drop Treanor for Gentry and look at that bench! Speed, Lefty bats, Righty Bats. I like!!

February 11, 2011 at 4:45 PM | Unregistered CommenterMrC

Someone said Tex/Gonzalez are easily top-5 1Bs. I disagree. To me, it goes Pujols-Cabrerra-Howard 1-2-3. Then I'd probably have AGone 4, and a bit of a scrum after that, with Tex, Morneau, maybe Dunn or Konerko (depending on who is playing first), Joey Votto, and maybe some others in the mix.

Napoli is going to blow up in RBiA. Bank on it. By July we'll all be begging to see his bat every day. But he's not a Catcher. How do I know? Angels need a Catcher. Mathis sucks. But they traded Napoli for a bad contract. Any other team could have had him, and all they had to offer was better than Vernon Wells and his albatross contract. ANY team viewing him as a Catcher (given his bat) would have made that deal. No one did. Toronto needs a Catcher. They lost theirs in FA this year. They acquired Napoli in a trade, yet chose to flip him for a guy who may close for them, but is really more of a solid setup man. Again, every other team in the league could have had him, and if ANY team evaluated him as Catcher material, they would have offerred more than Frankie Francisco to get him. But they didn't.

Playing Catcher is about a lot more than throwing out baserunners. It's about calling pitches, framing pitches, preventing Wild Pitches, and managing the staff, as well as scouting the opponent and thinking like a coach on the field. That's all more or less impossible to measure. I don't personally know what makes Napoli a bad Catcher. I do, however, know that personel guys from all 30 teams voted with their actions this offseason and said NO, he most certainly is not. I'll take their word for it.

February 11, 2011 at 5:42 PM | Unregistered CommenterScooby Dude

Howard above Tex and AGon? Really?

February 11, 2011 at 5:56 PM | Unregistered CommenterTaylor

Certainly Tex. AGone, meh, debatable.

February 11, 2011 at 6:02 PM | Unregistered CommenterScooby Dude

Scooby - I'd certainly rank them differently, but you're certainly entitled to your opinion. I absolutely agree with you about Napoli (did you know his career wRC+ vs RHP is 5 points higher than Young?).

As far as 1B goes, I'd rank them Pujols, Votto, Tex, Morneau, and AGon

February 11, 2011 at 6:26 PM | Unregistered CommenterDave H

Look, I'm not saying make Napoli the full time backstop. I'm saying that he could start (not necessarily finish) against lefties. Scooby, I'm with you that others seemed to take a pass on him. However, Napoli started about half the games from 2007-2009 for the Angels when the won the AL West each year.

February 11, 2011 at 6:40 PM | Unregistered CommenterMrC

@ Dave H: I think everyone's entitled to an opinion, and I repect yours more than just about any poster on the site. I have 2 comments.

(1) there are 2 "musts" in my mind on this issue. You must rank Pujols #1, and you must have Cabrerra in the top 5. He's been a monster for several years.

(2) I certainly don't think it's crazy or obviously wrong to say that Tex and AGone are both top-5 1Bs. But I do think it's crazy or obviously wrong to say that they are "clearly" top-5 1Bs. I think people forget just how many flat-out stud sluggers man that position around MLB.

February 11, 2011 at 6:44 PM | Unregistered CommenterScooby Dude

@Scooby Dude - I generally agree. If we're just ranking bats he's #2-3 for me. Just from the games I've seen, I don't really believe in his defense at first, but If you've got enough scouts telling me otherwise, I'd readily cede the point. Cabrera would definitely be in a top 6 for me, and if you asked me tomorrow, I might have him at #3.

February 11, 2011 at 6:58 PM | Unregistered CommenterDave H
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