The Impact Of Adrian Beltre
"[The] Rangers now have to be right up against the point where they cannot -- or will not -- commit any further dollars and/or years to [Cliff] Lee, the point where Plan 'B' kicks in, and if that plan could somehow comprise Adrian Beltre and a mid-rotation starter, I would consider that to be a pretty sturdy off-season haul, even if it's not the off-season haul that some idealized fresh off a World Series appearance." -- December 9th, 2010
You can probably argue that Brandon Webb is not reliable enough -- or that the downside risk is too great -- for Webb to be considered a true No. 2-3, "mid-rotation" starter (which, by the way, apparently won't be Matt Garza, as the Chicago Sun-Times reports early this morning that the Cubs are on the verge of acquiring the right-hander from Tampa Bay), and you can definitely argue that the Rangers just went out and committed too much in terms of both years and dollars to Beltre, but to some measurable extent, Plan 'B' has finally materialized. The winter of our discontent is beginning to fade away.
I'll reiterate that the Beltre signing is strikingly similar to the Rangers' hypothetical, but not-quite-actualized signing of Lee in one key respect: risk. In both instances, the clear and present danger of the later years constituting major overpayment for declining/underperforming players in their late-30s was traded off for immediate value, designed to maximize the Rangers' chances of winning lots of games in the next couple of years and collecting more pennants (an approach which many of us, including Jason Parks, support). Beltre's deal could conceivably look horrendous some number of years down the line, but there will be few regrets if the Rangers make a return trip or two to the World Series.
It occurred to me late last night that Beltre, despite standing out as a questionable buy on the dollars-per-win scale (a two- to three-win upgrade at $16 million per year isn't exactly good bang for the buck on paper), begins to look more favorable if you juxtapose his signing not against the roster in its present, unfinished state, but rather what the team likely would have done had they not signed Beltre; it's probably safe to assume that Texas would have gone out and signed Vladimir Guerrero to something in the vicinity of a one-year, $7 million pact. Here's a very rough approximation of the Rangers' projected total value at both third base and designated hitter in both scenarios:
Scenario No. 1: Michael Young (2.5 WAR at 3B; approx. $13 million in 2011), Vladimir Guerrero (2.0 WAR at DH; approx. $7 million in 2011) = 4.5 WAR at $20 million = $4.4 million per win above replacement
Scenario No. 2: Adrian Beltre (4.0 WAR at 3B; approx. $16 million in 2011), Michael Young (2.0 WAR at DH; approx. $13 million in 2011) = 6.0 WAR at $29 million = $4.8 million per win above replacement
Obviously these numbers are subject to manipulation as you see fit, but this educated guess leaves Texas paying $9 million extra for an additional 1.5 wins above replacement, or $6 million per win; of course, this still doesn't look particularly favorable, but what if we account for the prospect of deferred money (as I already did with Young's conspicuously reduced $13 million salary figure, which better reflects reality) and/or escalating salaries? We don't have Beltre's final contract figures in hand yet, but it's entirely possible, if not likely, that $2-3 million of his $16 million average annual value is deferred until after his contract expires in 2016, or that his base salary is only $13-14 million outright, which would place the added expense at a far more palatable $4.5 million per win -- right around market value, particularly in this winter's climate of inflated spending.
Now, it's also possible that I'm engaging in some form of rationalization in looking at the Beltre deal, because assuming full health and at least marginal production in 2014-15 (by which I mean Beltre not devolving into a pile of replacement-level waste), this will be a six-year, $96 million deal, and that isn't a good contract -- not even for a vaunted upper-tier "two-way" third baseman. He's a very good player bordering on elite right, but this is a dangerous gambit because of the long-range implications, and it's entirely possible that Texas is locked into paying at least $13-14 million (and then deferred money after the fact, which contributed to the previous ownership regime's fiscal problems) to an average player for the entirety of the 2014-16 seasons. The most likely outcome is somewhat brighter than that, but it does exist within the realm of possibility.
Many can't (or won't) be bothered to gaze that far down the road, and I have a strange sort of admiration for those people. For the thousands of casual fans, tomorrow is best worried about when tomorrow actually arrives and not before, and today is cause for celebration, because today the Rangers are a better, deeper, more dangerous team, and the Angels, by virtue of their idleness, are falling further and further behind. I can appreciate that viewpoint, but I can also recognize that today's cause for celebration could also be tomorrow's payroll-smothering albatross.
Analysis, Hot Stove Season, The Off-Season
Reader Comments (56)
The Suns article makes it seem like we're going after Soriano. If that's the case, and the plan is to move Feliz to the rotation that scares our opposition. Many Angel fans are very, VERY afraid of Feliz as a potential Ace.
Or, it could be a quick strike -- assuming it were to actually happen -- in anticipation of trading Ogando/O'Day as part of a package for rotation help.
Rhodes tto Ogando to Soriano would be a great finish from the pen this season and something the league would fear with Feliz to start as that was always the intention.
Seems like a huge bat is still needed off the bench from the left side but Thome wants two years and too much money. Would appear that Murphy is 4th outfielder and that Young could take Blanco's spot as utility guy. That would leave some rotation at DH on days when it's necessary and we know.Treanor is backup catcher.
Could that leave Davis as the last bench player for 1B/3B/PH? Me thinks so........
Those 1.5 wins at $6M per are at the top of the marginal win scale, though. I'm fine with paying that to go from, say, 89 to 90 wins, as opposed to 85 to 86. And I think that 2 WAR for Vlad might be a tad optimistic given his age and how he dropped off the last half of 2010.
I think the Rangers are basically done. They will roll into spring training giving Feliz and/or Ogando a shot at the rotation and see how things play out. They have a very solid defensive club that will help the pitching staff, not a bad way to build a team.
The way pythag works, I think you need to add about 1.15 runs scored for every run allowed. It's a bit easier to improve your club on the prevention side, all other things being equal, and the Rangers have a terrific defense behind a variable pitching staff. I really hope Holland can take the next step in his development and be more consistent this year. That would be equivalent to picking up a solid mid-rotation starter.
Your analysis for 2011 is solid, I would like to look at it a similar way for 2012 and 2013 because I think this deal is as much if not more for those years as it is for 2011. Young could probably be passable at 3rd in 2011, and mayybe passable in 2012, but at some point he will be unable to man 3rd (I think 2012 would be a fair guess). Sure Young at 3rd and Vlad at DH for 2011 would have been cheaper per win than beltre, but then when you are forced to move Young to DH next offseason who do you get to play 3rd? Olt isn't ready by then, and the FA market is very bare. So you're left with a replacement level 3rd baseman for 2012/2013 while hoping someone in the farm system comes around or a trade target becomes available. Meanwhile you still have Young DH-ing for 13 (or 16) million a year as you do with us signing Beltre.
This signing may not be the most effective use of funds for 2011, but as far as 2012-2013 are concerned this filled what would have been a major offensive and defensive hole for the team. I love that JD had the foresight of this looming issue and solved the problem before it became a problem.
I think 3b is a position for which the Rangers are in a position to overpay the market value in wins for several reasons.
First the positions on the Rangers' roster where an obvious significant upgrade on the free agent market exists are limited.
Second, we know 3B will be an issue not only this, but also in years to come if MY is manning the position. If you look at available 3B coming onto the market not only this year, but in the next two or three as well, there is no one close to approaching Beltre's skillset.
This means if the Rangers were going to find any kind of impactful upgrade at 3B in this or future seasons, circumstances required overpaying for the upgrade. And condidering the value the Rangers have at other positions, overpaying at 1 additional spot should significantly hamstring them in future years.
Is it possible that Rangers fans are stuck in a past financial mindset with regard to understanding what new ownership (with a new TV deal and a winning team at least in the short run) is able to do?
Bottom line, we may down the road be in a position to finally reap some of the financial benefits to being in such a huge single market, and decisions like Beltre's huge contract might not hurt us as much as past mistakes.
I don't think it makes too much sense to compare Beltre's 16 over 5 or 6 to AROD's 24 over TEN, still makes me sick to think about that. Though add on a couple more big 100 million buck contracts and you could be right back to bankruptcy court.
The Face's bad contract will roll off about the time Beltre's contract is thought to look bad.
The team can afford to carry one bad contract.
However, I do have some hope that Beltre may have better longevity then what is being discussed since it is his defense and not his bat that makes him valuable.
Also, Joey, you project bothVlad and The Face to be identical 2.0 WARs at DH. IMO The Face is a 2.0+ @ DH while Vlad is a 2.0- @ DH. Vlad's last half of the season was not very good. I really wonder what he will look like in 2011. The Face on the other hand is still a solid hitter; it is his fielding and specifically range that drags him down. Now that he is at DH I think it is fair to hope for him to repeat his 2010 2.7 WAR (Fangraphs). Interestingly Fangraphs (Fans) for 2011 project The Face @ 2.4 WAR and Vlad to deline to 1.1 WAR; projections I agree with.
If this is true then the extra bucks are spread over an additonal 1.3 WAR (2.4 - 1.1) and the deal looks better for 2011 then what you projected.
Your thoughts?
Meh, we had to spend the money somewhere I guess. It's an upgrade, no doubt, and call me crazy, but I think Lee and 7 guaranteed was a better bad idea.
This is a very informative read. I still feel the contract dollars and duration make this a riskier deal for the Rangers than it needs to be. Oakland's best offer was for $20 million less?
My next question - if this somehow doesn't work out, will this be a tradeable contract three years from now?
John in Clearwater,
I think the tradeable factor depends on how Beltre produces at the plate for the next three years. You might be able to unload the salary for a bag of balls if he produces close to the way he did last year and doesn't regress much in the field.
Joe
If it doesn't work out in the first 3 years, when he is expected to be worth the money then I seriously doubt the final 3 years, when he's expected to be overpaid would be tradeable. The only way I could see it is if FA prices raise a ton, and the state of 3B league-wide is at a historic low. With those combining factors and if Mike Olt is knocking on the door ready to start at 3rd then I could see Beltre being tradeable, for a minimal return.
The general thought though is that at the time of a free agent signing a player's trade value is approximately zero because no team was willing to pay as much as the winning team. So if right now his trade value is zero he would need to outperform expectations, or the market would have to shift, in order for him to have any trade value. Point being, expect Beltre to be our starting 3B for at least 5 years.
Joey,
Following up on the Fangraphs (Fans) projections for The Face and Vlad adds 1.3 WAR (2.4 - 1.1) to your projected 1.5 WAR thereby totaling 2.8 WAR.
Texas paying $9 million extra for an additional 2.8 wins above replacement, or $3.2 million per win is not a bad deal.
Interestingly, the value of this deal may NOT center on Beltre, but on how The Face and Vlad (I assume Vlad signs eventually somewhere else) perform at DH this year.
I think if you look at this deal in 2015 dollars then you might like it better. Of course, that only works if FA contracts keep escalating. If they all collapse or someday MLB owners wake up to reality, which isn't likely. Beltre might not be a great deal but it might be mannageable in 2016 dollars. You pays yo money and tales yo chances. There ain't no guarantees in life. Live for today.
@rangerjake - If Olt sets the world on fire and is ready for 3B in say 2013, maybe the Rangers move Beltre to 1B.
My point is the Rangers probably have a good feel for when prospects may be ready to contribute and have a secondary plan in place for all the ifs and buts. Beltre playing 1B/DH in 2014 and beyond is not out of the realm of possibility. Alot can change in 3 or 4 years...
I understand the numbers and also how the numbers are created but I'm a simple man. I don't believe JD or especially Nolan are making decisions based on WAR or other dreamed up formulations. Sure...there has to be a method to JD's and Nolan's madness but inevitably their decision has to be made on "Will this guy make our team better and can we afford to sign him?".
Josh Hamilton...What was his WAR at the time of the trade?
Bottom line, Beltre is a huge improvement at 3B and adds some good wood to the lineup.
The Rangers are a better ball club with Adrian Beltre at 3B.
Let Hank, JD, and Nolan worry about the money!
If you use the same logic that Joey used earlier on BBTIA in talking about the Cliff Lee contract, then you can get a decent idea how bad of a contract this is.
(1)Assume Beltre is a 4.0 WAR player next year, declines by .5 WAR each year, a win is worth $4.5 and rises 5% per year.
(2) Assume he declines by .7 WAR a year
Scenario 1, Beltre generates $73m over 5 years, or $82 over 6
Secanrio 2, he generates $63m over 5 and $66 over 6 (ending with a .5 WAR)
So either way, it looks like a bad deal. In order to make the math work out, you have to assume that he will start next year as a 4.5 WAR guy. Fangraphs currently has him project at 5.1, but that seems awful high to me.
Can we also bring into the equation that Beltre has a career .850 OPS at RBiA?
Just sayin...
How about this too?
We are gaining around 25 runs per season at 3rd base. Nothing to shake a stick at for sure.
Also just sayin...
"Josh Hamilton...What was his WAR at the time of the trade?"
@ Wood1378
Per Fangraphs Josh Hamilton 2007 Reds 2.5 FYI: Edinson Volquez 2007 Rangers 0.5
" don't believe JD or especially Nolan are making decisions based on WAR or other dreamed up formulations."
I wouldn't be so sure about that. At least in JD's case. I would point out that In 2006, Time named Bill James in the Time 100 as one of the most influential people in the world. He is currently a Senior Advisor on Baseball Operations for the Boston Red Sox and was hired in 2003 byJohn Henry, the owner of the Boston Red Sox. Also, Red Sox GM Theo Epstein is quite comfortable with sabermetrics.
@Pablo... I agree that is a plausible scenario... I just also think that to rationalize giving him this much money you have to believe he is going to contribute in a big way on D, in my mind for at least 5 years. Obviously a lot can change though.
I just can't help but be excited as IMO this really improves the Defense. As a Ranger fan since 1972 I have never been in a position where it really is WIN now. I believe our current winning window is 3 years and this really fills that need well. The Rangers will just have to deal with the other 2 years. I do think this Ownership Group does bring more money and they understand they will have to spend it to stay competitive. Overall this is a great pick-up for the short run and that's is all we can hope for.
Go Rangers
1
@ lipman: Beltre's Career average is 4.2 WAR and he was a 7.1 WAR last season. His 2 most recent seasons not played in Seattle (a terrible park for RH power hitters) he has a total of 17.3 WAR, or 8.65/yr. I think a good bet is to start him @ 5.2 WAR and regress him by .6 per season. This brings the deal to 20 WAR over 5 years or 22.2 WAR over 6. Assuming $4.5m per WAR this brings the value to $90m over 5 years and $99.9m over 6. Bearing in mind that the FA cost per WAR is likely to be at $5.5m by 2014-15 this seems like a pretty good deal, by those #s.
That's a good point scooby... If he even has 1 season as good as his two "career years" (04 and 10)... Then that goes a longgg way to making him worth the contract. 7 WAR in one year is an MVP type season and he has done it twice...'not saying we should expect it, but it's not out of the question that once in the next 6 years he'll put up a 6+ WAR season. That would make him worth about $30ish million in that one year alone. Then you're looking at a much easier justification of the huge deal he just signed.
I think this has been debated on here already but does anyone have a feel for what Rafeal Soriano is looking for in terms of dollars and years?
I'm assuming he's going to best what Benoit received from the Tigers ($5M) by a few million... if so, then that would put him at what, 3 yrs/$24M... 4 yrs/$30M... something in that neighborhood? Or, is he looking for something more in line with a guy like Rivera or FRod? If so, then he's not worth it to the Rangers (in my opinion).
Seemingly this team's strength is their bullpen and adding Soriano would be somewhat redundant... UNLESS, of course, JD has something else lined up involving Feliz and/or Ogando. Still, even if Feliz or Ogando moved to the rotation or was traded, you may have a guy in Scheppers that could slide into that 8th inning set up role.
A bullpen featuring some combination of Ogando or Feliz/Soriano/O'Day/Rhodes/Oliver and possibly Scheppers, would be 1 of the top 3 bullpens in all of baseball... don't you think? It would also be another stab in the heart of the Angels, and to a lesser extent the A's.
Speaking of the Angels, do they even have a bona fide closer? I'm trying to think of who stepped in and replaced Fuentes but I'm drawing a blank.
I know the chances of signing Soriano are slim to none... but we know he's not pitching for the Rays next year, which leaves another gaping hole in their pen. As a result, maybe they're willing to deal one of their SPs for a good arm like Ogando or Scheppers. Like I said the other day, I would think that if you offered Ogando or Scheppers + Hunter or Holland, you could land Garza. You would likely have to package the pair of players based on experience and upside, so you give them a choice of Holland/Ogando or Hunter/Scheppers. Either way they are getting at least 1 proven commidity in Hunter or Ogando, and 1 with high upside/potential in Scheppers or Holland.
I'm not sure adding Soriano and Garza is that much of an improvement down the road, but it would definitely be an upgrade for 2011. Just a thought...
The proof of success will be if the Rangers put 5000 more BIS (That is Butts in Seats) and average 35,000 /game and build it up toward 40,000 and rising. Win, lose or draw it all hinges on more fans coming out to the games. This should be a Whiz-Bang Season. When things look this good i am always wondering where the dark cloud will come from. You just can't plan on Best Case Scenario, all the time.
The best news is that the optimists among us, who aren't as inclined to look at the risks of him being less-than-stellar in 2014-2016 as being a deal-breaker, can creditably point toward 2011-2013's seasons as likely being the best teams our Rangers have ever fielded. That's not 2002's Pie in the Sky, either. This is a substantially-favored team in the AL West for the next 3 yrs if the payroll is large enough to hold on to a significant majority of our best young players.
The talent disparity in our division is now such that they can absorb a down yr from more than one or two of their best players. That is pretty exciting!
What in the heck is Arte Moreno doing? Does he have a real plan, or is he suffering some sort of financial meltdown, ala HSG? I think he's scared to death of making another GMJ-type of mistake...or, at least, the Angels fans better hope that's all that's wrong. Two winters in a row that they've let huge holes in their roster remain unresolved.
I can't imagine the Rangers are going to go after another Type A FA -- especially not Soriano. JD is not going to give up another draft pick for a closer he doesn't really need, and additionally someone who is a Boras client that will require overpaying both in yrs and $-signs. This bullpen is loaded, with or without Feliz at the back end.
I think signing Beltre clearly increases the odds of signing Soriano because giving up the 26th pick for Soriano is a steep price, but giving up the 85th pick is not so much. Also, you're all in for the enxt few years, so Soriano makes even more sense. I think 3/$24m gets him done. Maybe 3/$22m. He only has to record about 5 WAR total over 3 years to make that worth it.
One more advantage to signing Soriano:
Let's say we sign him.
Let's say JD and company view Feliz as a better long-term fit for closer than starter.
Let's say another team with an ace to spare views Feliz still as an ace dow the road.
Would you deal, say, Kinsler and Feliz for Josh Johnson at the deadline (moving Young to 2B and dealing a lesser prospect for a replacement DH)?
What about Feliz, Scheppers, and Sardinas for David Price?
Interesting to think about.
I know I'm all over the place today but I was imagining the opening day lineup and I stumbled on a potential problem/hole that got lost in the shuffle (at least in my mind it did); centerfield. Are we content riding out Borbon... or searching for a backup plan in case he falls on his face? Could JD be looking at a big name like Carlos Beltran to fill the potential void? Or, does he set his sights on an even bigger prize in J. Upton?
We don't need all-stars at every position, I realize that... but is going into 2011 with Borbon playing CF 80% of the time, with a combo of Hammy and Murphy playing the other 20%, a good idea?
We can probably go with Borbon and be ok... BUT what if he fails or gets injured... is his replacement going to be Gentry?
If this were circa 2010 and we were still in a rebuilding mode, I'd be on board with Borbon and/or Gentry... but we're defending an AL pennant and CF seems a tad sketchy right now.
To land a guy like Beltran probably wouldn't cost that much in terms of prospects but you would certainly have to send MYback in the deal, and I don't think the Mets would be willing to do that.
Upton would be very costly... but he's a 23 yr old budding superstar that could lock down that position for the next 10-12 years.
Just a thought (part II)...
@ Pabloesque
IMO RPs are very high risk bets. Rafeal Soriano is going to get both too many bucks and to many years for a guy that will pitch 60 - 75 innings and projects @ 1.0 to 1.5 WAR. Just my thoughts.
Jon Daniels became relevant when he wowed people with his sabermetric analysis at the Winter Meetings years ago. To think he would completely ignore WAR, or at the very least the components of it, is borderline absurd.
Have any of you wondered if JD gets on here and reads our posts? I can just see him and Thad Levine laughing their asses off at some of the hair brained scenarios we (meaning me) cook up.
Would someone please tell me what "IMO" stands for? It probably shows my age... but I'm not sure if it's a baseball term or some acronym you use when texting.
Little known fact: Rangers100 is Jon Daniels
"In My Opinion"
You know, big contracts turn bad eventually. Sh!t happens. I'm sure we'll at some point in the future regret what we're paying CJ, and/or Josh, and/or Nellie, too. All you can really do, though, if you want a roster that can repeatedly produce 90+ wins over several seasons is try to acquire and/or retain talented players, even if the valuations might be iffy on the back end of a contract. Risk can be mitigated, and JD has a plan for it, I'm sure. If they need to shed payroll and veterans at some point because the results aren't what they hoped to see, they still have good young players to fill the void.
If signing Beltre is a 2-to-3-win upgrade for the team, and those wins in tough pennant races put you over the top in more than one season out of the next three, then what are the marginal wins actually worth? More than $5M each?...possibly much, much more than $5M? You bet they are.
I believe it was Josh Garoon who postulated that they only way you truly can maximize your chances of winning it all is to to get into the playoffs frequently. Favored teams don't always win WS rings because of performance variability over short periods of time (i.e., a 5-game or 7-game series). Once the calendar turns to October, it becomes somewhat of a crap-shoot as to who will win it all. But the FO is maximizing the chance right now that the Good Guys will return to the post-season again and again over the early half of this decade.
Playoffs 2011, 2012, and 2013!...Last Team Standing WINS!
@ dude in UK:
Type As should be signed in bunches. When you sign 1, you should sign 1 or 2 more, and than plan on not signing any the next year. That way, you surrender a #1 and a #2 for 2 Type As instead of a pair of #1s which you would give up by signing them in consecutive offseasons.
Also, there are "tweener" Type As (Soriano and Pavano are perhaps examples) that no one will sign (giving up a #1 pick) as their only Type A. Thus, only the handful of teams bidding on a second Type A can get at them. Sometimes you can get good value on a guy like that. I suspect, for instance, that by getting Beltre (and Boston getting Crawford), we may have blocked the Angels from signing Soriano as well, since they may be hesitant to give up a #1 for a RP! If so, we may not really have anyone to bid against for his services, especially since the Rays (who obviously would not have to give up anything to resign him) appear to have zero interest in doing so for financial reasons.
I'm gonna start by saying the Feliz is my favorite Ranger. That being said if they only see him as a closer permanently they should shop him to a team that thinks he can make it in the rotation. If they don't think he has ace potential they should try to trade him for an established starter. He's too valuable of a piece to be just the closer (you could fill his production easily by signing Soriano to a contract worth fractions of what an ace like Lee would cost)... My vote is for Feliz in the rotation because I think he can be the Ace we need.
In October 2010, we became a baseball town or more of a baseball town than ever before. The claw and antlers and Cliff Lee in a Ranger uniform were magic. We tried to get Lee but not at any price. He wanted to play for the Phillies. In my mind, We had to give these new fans something to keep the magic going and continue to put these new butts in seats. I have not seen anything that talks about how many butts a upper tier FA will add to the attendance but Beltre made a good team better! Did we overpay? Probably but when the attendance income is counted, he may pay for himself. The Yankees can double(and triple) everyone elses payroll because they double everyones elses attendance when they play away games. JD, Nolan and Greenberg, et al are trying to up the Rangers status as as elite team. It takes committment.
@Scooby Dude,
Excellent point about Soriano only costing us Pick #85. 3 yrs/$24M, is probably close, too. If JD could pull it off, it would leave him with a surplus of mid-level pitching talent that might come in handy at the AS Break when some NL teams are really needing an upgrade.
There's one thing that worries me with even more spending for Soriano being contemplated...the purse strings are a little tighter as you begin negotiating with CJ. Is it just me, or does anyone else think the only way an affordable deal gets done with his agent is to get it done right now? He's got to be at least interested in getting some value out of such a strong 2010 season. A 3-yr, $36M is probably within his reach right now, and it would presumably be with the team he wants to play for...the Rangers. That would potentially be a bargain for us if he can average 4 WAR per season.
Considering that he has only logged 600 ABs in one season twice during his career (and one of those was 602), I think we can go ahead and write off that last year now.
a hundred million for a 3b in his 30s who has had two good years in his career, both in walk years...
awesome panic move....
@FullerTron - LOL (I at least know what that stands for)
@Scooby - THANK YOU.
@rangerjake - I think history has proven that closers are a key piece to winning. If you went back and looked at each of the last 20 WS winners most, if not all, had 9th inning, shut down closers. If Feliz is the Ranger's closer for the next 10 years, I'd be willing to bet this team is contends in each.
@Scooby - regarding the Type A/draft pick debate; is what your saying a known strategy amongst GMs? I've never heard it put that way before and I'm just curious if that's Scooby Speak or something that's common knowledge.
I'm on record saying I don't like the dollars or duration of this deal. But if it's done, it's done, and this will be the strongest starting lineup I can think of the Rangers ever putting on the field.
@Pull T http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/adrian-beltre-is-not-motivated-by-contract-years/
04 and 10 are his two good years, both contract years...the balance of his career is mlb starter average...
parse from there all u like but that's fact...
This isn't really news to any of us but it's a nice, informative write up on the Beltre signing:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/cliff_corcoran/01/05/rangers.beltre.reaction/index.html?eref=sihp
Just a thought... Could JD be stockpiling bullpen arms in an attempt to sell one or two at the deadline for a couple of nice prospects?? Gagne got us Gabbard, Beltre, and Murphy... If JD had one or two surplus arms and could pick up a couple prospects that could be a real sly under the radar type jd move... Especially if they're planning on emptying the farm a bit more to add an ace at the trade deadling, replacing some of that ammo by selling off a bullpen arm could be perfect.