The King And 1
Elvis Andrus makes the final out against the Angels on Sunday, August 1st.August wasn't an easy month to write about the Rangers. They went 13-15, lost a bunch of games they should've won in ugly fashion, and couldn't maintain their hold on the home field in the ALDS. Still, at no point during the month did Texas' division lead dip below seven games, and by the time the calendar page flipped, it was clear to all but the most cynical fan (or most story-hungry writer) that the team's going to reach the post-season standing up. So if August didn't provide much to wax enthusiastic about, it would also be a mistake to linger too long on the negatives. From a baseball standpoint, I'm pretty relaxed. So relaxed, in fact, that I'm letting myself lean back and dream a bit about the playoffs.
And in my dreams: sometimes there's a man. I won't say a superstar -- because what's a superstar? But sometimes, there's a man – and I'm talking about the King, here -- sometimes there's a man, well, he's the man for his team and position. He fits right there. And that's the King. In Texas. And even if he's an easily distractible man -- and the King is most certainly that. Quite possibly the most distractible on the Rangers, which would place him high in the running for most distractible league-wide. But sometimes there's a man; sometimes, there's a man ...
I lost my train of thought, there. But, hell, I suppose the argument is:
Sometimes, there's a man who shouldn't be batting leadoff in the playoffs.
That's some folks' take, anyhow, based on Elvis Andrus' rather lackluster last few months. Do they have a point?
Certainly Andrus' power outage this season is disappointing, but how much so? He has yet to hit a ball out of a park -- any park -- this season. (He's one of only two AL players with more than 300 plate appearances this season who doesn't have a home run; the other is Royal Jason Kendall). But it's also easy to believe that Andrus has willingly sacrificed power in order to increase his on-base percentage from the leadoff spot.
More importantly, it would've been nice to see Andrus' walk rate stay above league average in May, July, and August. The walk rate of 17 percent (!) that Andrus boasted at the end of April has proven to be illusory. Sure, he's still at 10 percent for the season, but unless he bucks the trend, he'll finish short of that mark by the time the calendar flips for the last time of the regular season.
Let's put all of this in some statistical context. In The Book, Tango, Lichtman, and Dolphin conclude that the ideal lineup has a team's best hitters in the top five of the order (in the No. 1, 2, 5, 4, and 3 spots, respectively) with some flexibility given to consideration of the OBP/power tradeoffs. (Texas probably doesn't want Josh Hamilton hitting leadoff).
Elvis Andrus isn't one of the Rangers' best five hitters this season. Among Rangers with at least 250 PA, he's seventh-best in wOBA, and fourth-best in OBP, and if Mitch Moreland can continue doing what he's done over his first 90 big-league PA over a full season, Andrus would drop another rung in the former, and possibly in the latter.
But at the end of the day, how big a deal is this? Sticking with the stats, batting order means relatively little. Over the course of a season, it would take an astonishingly boneheaded lineup to cost a team more than a few wins. But just for fun, I ran the numbers through Baseball Musings' Lineup Analysis tool. (The tool has its limitations -- ideally, I'd have used a Markov simulator, but I don't have one handy at the moment. Once I do, maybe I'll post the results for comparison's sake.) Still, it's an interesting enough exercise. If we take the following as a typical, even likely batting order for the Rangers in the post-season:
Elvis Andrus
Michael Young
Ian Kinsler
Vladimir Guerrero
Josh Hamilton
Nelson Cruz
Mitch Moreland
Bengie Molina
Julio Borbon
... then the Lineup Analysis tool spits out 5.338 runs scored per game. By contrast, the most productive order (though it doesn't quite line up with The Book's conclusions) is:
Ian Kinsler
Josh Hamilton
Vladimir Guerrero
Nelson Cruz
Mitch Moreland
Bengie Molina
Julio Borbon
Michael Young
Elvis Andrus
... and weighs in at 5.503 runs per game. That's a difference of 0.165 runs per game; at an approximated 10 runs per win, that difference amounts to 2.67 wins over a full season.
So: probably not a big deal at all.
Still, in the playoffs, why pass up any advantage, no matter how small? I'm a big fan of Elvis Andrus. I love his glove, his range, his arm, his enthusiasm. I love his speed. I don't think he's nearly as bad on the base paths as some would have you believe, though there's little doubt he needs to improve his base-stealing savvy. And given everything else he brings to the table, I think his bat plays well enough. I even love his ability to bunt, both for hits and (as long as the situation calls for it) to advance runners.
That said, Andrus hasn't had the sort of season that should guarantee him a post-season lead-off spot, assuming the regulars are all healthy. Small sample size granted, his .151/.211/.179 line as the first batter in a game isn't exactly awe-inspiring, and all else being equal, the Rangers should be setting up Hamilton, Cruz, Kinsler, Guerrero, and Young for the few extra plate appearances that the top of the order collects each game.
And looking beyond 2010: while Andrus' improvement in OBP between this year and his rookie season, the Rangers need to ask themselves if it's worth the price he seems to be paying in power.
Analysis, The Season
Reader Comments (15)
Texas has been bad in August, but they always are, right? The real question will be about September, and whether the bats can get rolling again like they were in June when Kinsler came back the first time. They are maintaining their lead because the other teams in their division are pretty bad.
Who knows what they will do in October against TB, but it doesn't look particularly encouraging at this moment. One thing for sure, they need some revamping for the offense for next year - 1B, C, and an OF.
Wow. Just wow.
Is this tongue-in-cheek? Yeah lets put borbon 1st
If Ron goes with Murphy/Francouer(sp), Hamilton and Cruz in the OF for the playoffs, Elvis needs to bat 9th and Ian leadoff.
The Rangers are a Dumb team. Generally, MLB players are smarter than say, NFL or NBA players, as a whole. There is smart and there is craft smart. i don't think the Rangers are 'Craft Smart.' There is agressive and there is reckless. The Rangers are Dumb and Reckless. that is a bad combo for Oct. The law of Selective Progression to Post Season usually eliminates teams like this but there is than intangible at work called DAL. No it isn't DALLAS. It's Dumb ARSE LUCK. You don't get 9 games up in your division by throwing to the wrong base, missing cutoff men or running the bases like the first year of Little League w/o paying the Piper. NFL and NBA Players are smarter at their craft, generally speaking. I keep expecting the Rangers to Turn It On in time for Post Season. People i trust say that does not happen. Good Lineup/ Bad Lineup...it doesn't matter. this team is Butkus and with that said, I LIKE THEM. They're just DUMB.
What about DEFENSE? Hasnt andrus saved a bunch of games by defense alone? I am an andrus fan just because of his glove.
The tiny improvement you'd get isn't worth the s***storm you'd unleash by radically altering the batting order. The players are human, with human insecurities. What will the consequences of putting Elvis and Young through such a demotion be? How would they react to that at this late point? Lets not find out this year, okay?
One thing that doesn't show up in these types of statistical analyses is "situational hitting", but Elvis' BARISP is leading the AL. That has to count for something. Maybe it even argues for hitting Kinsler 1st and Elvis in the 6 or 7 hole.
I agree with your assessment of the best Rangers lineup. But the real question is not "Why does Andrus bat leadoff when he should be batting 9th?" The bigger question is "Why have we tied the franchise to a guy - Michael Young, who should be batting 8th?" We all know that he can't field and apparently, is not a key contributor to the lineup. What do we do now?
Btw, I expect Hamilton to play center in the post season, with Murphy/Francoeur getting the nod in left. Borbon simply doesn't know what he's doing out there. It's a shame, because he has a ton of talent, but his only consistency is consistently making mental erros in the field.
Man people are in a bad mood today.
This lineup stuff fascinates me, and I'm all for giving us an edge. Baseball minds, including Kevin Goldstein, have said Elvis is miscast as a leadoff hitter. I think his lack of power is disturbing, but he's got time to figure out how to pull the ball again. Then there's Guerrero, whose season long statistics indicate a very good hitter, but whose last couple months are anything but. I'd actually like to move him down to 6th in the order, but that's happening.
Overall, the benefit from switching up the lineup now is minimal, and you might create problems if you tell Vlad he's hitting down in the order or put Elvis ninth. Just keep it as it is.
Speaking of Mike Young, Andy, you make a great point on one of my favorite subjects. While everyone realizes that Young is a very bad third baseman, I think that few realize just how pedestrian his year has really been on offense. Consider this: Is there any hitter in baseball who sees more good pitches to hit than Mike Young, hitting in front of Josh Hamilton? No one wants to walk him. I would love to hear some thoughts on what Mike Young would be worth if he had to sign as a free agent. $4 million? Less?
Somebody's gotta shake something up because very few players are getting it done offensively right now. A month or two ago we had five, almost six, starters hitting over .300 and now it's one. Base coaches also seem to be making too many mistakes by not telling runners what to do when. None of us want the Rangers to peak to soon with playoffs about four weeks away...that may be the only thing they're doing right at the moment.
The Rangers are essentially a .500 ballclub save for one month in which they won 15 more than they lost. All that stats in the world can't change what is to what might have been. They will make the playoffs but be gone after the first round AGAIN.
This team is not the Yankees and is not built for consistent winning, but for maybe getting lucky and going on a roll at just the right time. But seriously folks - we should just be happy for playoffs at this point, despite what the talking heads tell us.
Is this tongue-in-cheek? Yeah lets put borbon 1st
Nobody is even remotely suggesting that. I'm guessing you didn't even read what Josh had to say before disagreeing with it? And I'm not sure why defense enters into the argument of whether Andrus should be batting lead-off in the playoffs.
If you want to argue what badspellr is arguing, which is that such a lineup shake-up this late in the season could knock other guys out of sync (the danger of which I think is overstated, but then there's a lot we don't know yet about baseball and psychology), that's one thing. The rest of that doesn't make any sense. As far as whether I, myself, would bump Andrus out of the lead-off spot at this point, I'd lend strong consideration to it, but it doesn't seem like the kind of move they'd dare to make unless Elvis went into a 3-for-35 skid with only a couple of walks to show for his trouble through mid-September and Washington/Moore/etc. got spooked by the prospect of him killing the top of the order in the ALDS.
I would love to hear some thoughts on what Mike Young would be worth if he had to sign as a free agent. $4 million? Less?
He would definitely get more than $4 million. He wouldn't get $13-14 million, though. It appears he's going to finish with a 2.5~ WAR season, with decent but not great offense on the whole and again-disappointing defense. Good thing he went on that monstrous offensive stretch a few months back, because otherwise he'd be in .760-.770 OPS territory and we would really be hearing a lot of bitching about him. Probably from me.