The Rangers Playoff Roster Dump Truck
Two things: (a) We've tentatively scheduled a very special Ask Professor Parks Q&A session for tomorrow, and (b) of all the utterly bizarre events we've seen during this magical 2010 season, a walk-off strikeout -- the first to transpire in baseball in five years -- might top them all:
● Frank Francisco's endured a lot in his career, some of which he has brought upon himself: the 2004 Chairgate incident (and subsequent season-ending Tommy John surgery), basically two entire seasons lost to rehabilitation (2005-2006) and a third in which he wasn't especially effective (2007), quite a bit of fan-derived vitriol as the perception caught on that he was especially prone to late-inning meltdowns (I believe this perception was a bit misguided), the loss of his ninth-inning gig near the outset of the season, and now, right as the Rangers close in on their first post-season series in 11 years, the inability to do anything about it, as the 31-year-old right-hander has been dispatched to Arizona to continue rehabbing and will not be available for the ALDS.
In response, the Rangers have activated right-hander Mark Lowe -- who was acquired in the Cliff Lee deal, and who is supplanting the DL-bound Guillermo Moscoso on the active roster -- and have ordered a three-appearance audition over the regular season's final five games, with the Rangers saying they "haven't ruled out" the possibility of carrying Lowe into the ALDS. This, I think, is all well and good, and I appreciate his ability to throw 95-96 mph, but aside from the fact that he's logged merely 10.1 innings this season and has never logged a pro inning for the Rangers, the dirty little secret is that he's nothing remarkable performance-wise: the raw velocity hasn't translated to prodigious strikeout rates, his walk rates are so-so, and though he's proven competent at suppressing homers, how much of that has been a function of pitching half of his games in cavernous Safeco Field?
● I don't usually allow my bullet points to overlap, but in this case the composition of the bullpen is directly linked to the composition of the starting rotation, and the Rangers have decided to employ my preferred game plan, with manager Ron Washington deciding upon a three-man playoff rotation -- Cliff Lee, C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis, in that order -- that leaves Tommy Hunter confined to relief. In light of the way all of this has set up, I guess we're looking at Lowe, Michael Kirkman, Clay Rapada, Derek Holland, and Matt Harrison as five contenders for two remaining spots ... and, frankly, after accounting for Kirkman's inclusion, I really don't know who the last spot should be alloted to. I can't see any real necessity in carrying three lefties, and regardless of who you carry in that final spot, its occupant shouldn't be required to pitch in any game-critical situations anyway, so, hey, maybe Lowe really is the right call after all. And maybe the onus falls on me to not hold his injury-abated workload this year against him.
● The only other real post-season roster question that still perseveres is the Chris Davis vs. Mitch Moreland thing, and one of the things that I've observed about it is that public sentiment seems to overwhelmingly favor Moreland (or a Moreland/Jorge Cantu platoon), whereas the local media seems to favor Davis. Much of the Davis hype originated from a 13-plate appearance sample, which brings me around to this thought: you can evaluate a player's timing, batting eye and other scouting-side aspects in a tiny sample, combine that with existing scouting/performance data incorporate that into your decision-making process, but allowing strong performance over a tiny sample to override repeated instances of failure in your mind ... no, I can't support that, and I can't support carrying Davis into the Rangers' greatest war yet.
Analysis, The Season
Reader Comments (19)
Regarding Davis: I wouldn't even trust scouting for him right now given his history. How would I know his swing would hold up through the playoffs if it's a recent change? Why should I trust that? I see less risk in going with Moreland. Neither are going to be world beaters anyway, you might as well go with the lower variability guy.
I don't disagree with you, tball, but if you are expecting little to nothing from first base would it not make sense to have a high variability guy? At worst you have a little bit less than what you expected. At best you have a guy at the bottom of your order hitting like a middle of the order guy. I still want Moreland, I just see the argument that the Davis pushers are making.
He has "changed his swing" before and gotten great results... for a while. Then he has to do it all over again. Maybe those 13 AB's were just lucky.
On the other hand, maybe the next set of bad AB's were simply unlucky.
You gotta pick one side or the other and I think history suggests that Davis falls back into bad routines. I have to believe that the pressure of a playoff wouldn't bode well on someone that already has a lot of pressure to succeed after multiple meltdowns.
You have to take Moreland. He has been with this team all year and deserves a shot more than someone that hit .200 for a month. Moreland's swing is consistent, he has power, and he is patient. So his defense is as good as Davis's at first base. Whatever. I have to think that Moreland is more comfortable right now with the team. He has to be the one to go.
We all know how good the local reporters are at jumping to conclusions...
Putting Davis on the roster = we will not win any playoff games
I agree with Philly .. The team needs to take Moreland, if only because Davis hasn't earned it. He's repeatedly had a shot and, while his defense may be a hair better (I don't have stats in front of me), Moreland seems all-around the better choice.
Joey... why not this 11-man pitching staff
-SPs: Lee, Wilson, Lewis (although I would have flipped Wilson and Lee)
-Closer: Feliz
-Setup: O'Day
-Long/4thSP: Hunter
-LH RP: Oliver, Kirkman, Rapada (with Kirkman or Oliver medium long in case Hunter has to take a start)
-RH RP: Ogando, Lowe
I have zero trust in Harrison or Holland in a short role. Some games great, other games not so great. Kirkman and Rapada have performed most effectively in their roles since they were brought up. See no value in either Holland or Harrison in that role. Weakest of the LH RP has actually been Oliver.
With Frankie toast ... and Strop unreliable ... Lowe could be filling the role that Chris Ray had at the beginning of the year.
The Moreland vs. Davis dilemma will be settled because the first guy can play 1B and RF while the latter can play 1B and 3B. Cantu also plays what Davis plays but bats from the right side.
It was Davis leading for some because of his total body of work in the majors and his bond with some of these teammates, but the injury to Murphy may have just closed the door on Davis' opportunity.
If Murphy and Hamilton aren't ready to go...the starting outfield is Cruz in LF, Borbon in CF and Francouer in RF with Moreland set as 4th outfielder. This does set the stage for late game heroics by Francouer or Cantu, who will go into game as defensive replacement for Young at 3B and get a 9th inning game winner.
Moreland also showed us a little bit of speed yesterday. Guy was booking it around those bases to score yesterday. He also did something Davis never does, drew a walk with two outs. Hell Davis never walks anyway.
I'm so sick of hearing the argument that Davis is a far superior fielder. I have seen nothing in Mitch's play at first base that tells me that he isn't more than competent playing the position. I will take good defense and good solid at bats over "stellar" defense and absolutely horrible at bats, especially at a less than premium defensive position. If these were outfielders or shortstops and one of them were clearly better defensively, there would be a much better argument. I just can't find any sort of justifiable reason that Davis should play postseason baseball for this team.
Let Davis make the Winter League Playoffs in Arizona.
I am not being mean. He just needs to become consistent at the plate
The anus?!
Of course, right now we are certainly NOT seeing these scouting reports of a changed approach pay off in Davis' performance. He's 0 for 6 with 6 Ks in his last 12 plate appearances. FullerTron, I see your point, but right now it seems like the variability for Davis is on the downside. I don't see much evidence of a changed approach, you could just as easily say he got lucky getting a couple of walks right when he came back.
With Moreland you get superior contact rates and an additional option in the outfield if the need arises.
No guarrantees on Moreland, But, let's assume that neither player gets a hit. C. Davis is much more likely to strike out giving you nothing but heartburn. Moreland, is much more likely to get a sac fly, to move a runner over by making contact, a walk (not looking at stats). In other words, I think Moreland gives you much more at the plate. And he's earned it.
"the first to transpire in baseball in five years"
I wonder how many walk-off strikeouts come with the scoring runner on 1st base.
Moreland all the way. He's been at least fine defensively, and frankly, even without getting a hit, he has a much more mature approach to his PAs than Davis. He works counts, makes pitchers earn an out against him, isn't dreadful against LHP, and the OF versatility is a plus. He also just seems less intimidated by everything. Easy call.
I like Rapada or Harrison in the last RP slot. Harrison gives me good feelings in short relief, despite a few poor outings. He'd also be a good option in the one situation where the last guy might get key innings- a long extra innings game.
I have a question... The players that don't make the roster, are they allowed to travel with the team and stay in the clubhouse during the games? If they can't travel with the team would they be allowed to stay in the clubhouse during a home game? I was just curious.
let me ask...
is there any extra benefit in choosing Moreland b/c he could also play an OF spot in a pinch?
is there any extra benefit in choosing Davis b/c he could also play 3B in a pinch?
Given the injury situation in the OF (Josh/Murph, plus Vlad's terrible RF D), and the fact that Cantu would be the other half of the platoon, and he can play 3B about as well as Davis, I'd tend to say the advantage here lies with Moreland. But it's a minimal advantage.
Stay with Moreland.........
Holland and Kirkman get the two remaining spots in the bullpen. Rapada could be useful.........have absolutely no faith in Harrison. haven't seen enough of Lowe to even comment.
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