Overreactions To A Losing Series (Part III, Or Whatever It Is)
David Murphy and his anthropomorphic bat prepare to break into a song-and-dance number in Oakland on Sunday, August 8th.With 111 games down, 51 to go and a mere three-day weekend removed from the regular season's two-thirds mark, the Rangers now embark upon a stretch where 11 of their next 15 games are played against teams with .550-plus winning percentages -- and the other four are to be played in Baltimore, site of the suddenly red-hot Orioles. Yeah, if you considered that nine-game road trip to be boring, you're about to be in for a real treat:
● It's funny what can transpire in a week. After Rich Harden logged seven frames of one-run baseball the week before last in Anaheim, at least one team beat writer mentioned something to the effect of Harden's return from the disabled list potentially being commensurate to a late-July trade for a decent starting pitcher -- this in spite of the fact that it was a single improved start on top of a disaster-filled season, and not even a particularly great start at that, considering that he only notched three strikeouts and allowed a heavy ratio of hard-hit balls. I love optimism as much as the next guy, but we were going to require a larger sample of innings before we could remotely begin to buy into Harden being "fixed," as it were.
And surprise, surprise, he's not. He's still broken. Any modicum of confidence the organization might have gained from his Anaheim-located start has been shattered. If, for whatever reason, the Rangers aren't yet inclined to dump him, then one could argue that there's some degree of sense to flip-flopping him and Scott Feldman around -- at least until Derek Holland's ready -- and seeing if he can possibly translate into a passable long-relief man down the stretch (as previously suggested here). Feldman hasn't been all that great this year, but he has been better this year at controlling the things within his purview than Harden (as captured by fielding-independent ERA), and the one argument still working in Harden's favor, the "upside" argument, really has very little substance left to it. After all, how much value can you really attach to upside if you're still basically guaranteed to get sub-replacement level performance two-thirds of the time?
● Lest anyone recklessly proclaim that the Rangers' No. 5 rotation spot is of little concern anymore because of their high post-season odds, let's keep in mind that Texas definitely still has something very significant left to play for: home-field advantage. If the regular season ended today, the Rangers would lock down the No. 2 seed in the American League ... but only barely, as only one game separates them in the standings from prospective No. 3 seed Chicago. Protecting that lead would at least ensure home-field advantage for Texas through the ALDS and, in the event of an upset by the AL Central champions over the AL East champions, through the ALCS as well.
But aside from the opportunity for one extra home game, what is home-field advantage really worth in a quantitative sense? Repeated studies on the subject indicate that home-field advantage in any given game furnishes an approximate four percent boost to the home team's chances of winning that game; furthermore, the home team has proven better than the road team at pretty much everything during the course of baseball history, including hitters' walk/homer/BABIP rates. Obviously, the greatest advantage would manifest in Game 5 of the ALDS, but getting the chance to strike early and snag a quick 2-0 series lead behind the one-two punch of Cliff Lee/Colby Lewis ... well, that's awfully damn tantalizing, and incentive enough to refrain from coasting in September if the Rangers' division lead balloons to 10-plus games.
● Noted Scout.com's Jason Cole on Twitter yesterday: "Things seem to be evening out for Darren Oliver. His command has been not-so-good the last few weeks. Lots of balls left over the plate." I don't have much in the way of insight to corroborate that remark because, well, it certainly seems true, but in the process of scanning his 2010 game logs, I found something vaguely more interesting: both his workload and average leverage index (pLI) have noticeably fallen as the season has progressed, with his pre-May 27th pLI weighing in at a hefty 1.72 -- comparatively high for a non-closer -- and his post-May 27th pLI shrinking to 0.97, or basically average. Interesting dichotomy.
Now, granted, Alexi Ogando has picked up some of the high-leverage slack, but this seems to suggest that the Rangers do, at some level, recognize that they pushed Oliver a bit too hard during the season's early going, and have been lifting their foot off the gas pedal over the last several months in the hope of precluding an early burnout. And considering that he's the Rangers' only reliable left-handed reliever, well, there's a lot of sense in doing that ... unless the damage has already been done. I don't think that's the case here, per se, but behind Neftali Feliz, there's nobody more deserving of close observation in the Rangers' bullpen than Oliver.
Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (29)
Oakland always seems to give the Rangers trouble after the ASB. Very pesky team.
It's August. It's the Texas Rangers. We've all been here before. Buckle up.
just when I was starting to accept Wash, he pulls Lewis, who is doing ok, cost us the game....
Pretty typical baseball stuff. Your team doesn't go 162-0, they don't win every series, they don't win every road trip or homestand. No matter how good they are. They'll be tested for sure the rest of the way. The lead is likely to shrink to 2-3 games or so at some point. Perfectly normal. But I don't see this team cratering, and by seasons end I'm guessing they'll finish between 4 and 6 games up.
I wrote yesterday that I'd give Harden one more start. Essentially because a.) I'm willing to evaluate him on a 2 out of 3 chart, and b.) I'm not sure Holland is ready to be thrown right into the heat of a pennant race.
I personally would have been backing off on the hi-leverage appearances for DO before this. By my eyeball he's been trending down a bit over his last 1/2 dozen appearances or so. I'm sure there's an outlier in there, but I would do what it takes to get him as fresh as possible again.
Damn, the baseball season is long.
That's not much of an overreaction, Joey. But, I certainly agree: Harden's gotta go. On the second point, it's just going to take me a while to get used to talking about things like playoff seedings, you understand.
I'm pretty excited about the excuses for long, loud, cursing diatribes that I get whenever Rich Harden, war criminal, pitches for us.
What's that? Playoffs? Don't talk about playoffs! Playoffs? You kiddin' me? Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game!
Harden simply CANNOT be allowed to start again. Holland, Kirkman, Feldman, HArrison. All are better options at this point.
I think we all have noticed that DO is not the same pitcher he was early. He needs to be in to get 1 or 2 lefties and get him out of there.
If the Rangers feel that Holland is ready, then he should start Saturday. If not, then I think I favor Kirkman getting the nod.
@billydpowell
The guy had thrown 106 pitches through 6 innings, including a lot of pitches in high-stress scenarios. Wash did the right thing in getting him out when he did, you have a bullpen for a reason, they just didn't come through.
You seem to be mixing up correlation and causation a little bit with your point about playing better if you are the home team. Its a bit of a chicken and egg thing, but really, the series home team is at home because they have played better over 162 games. So the probability of them playing better (by almost any measure) is greater than that of the visiting team. No surprises here.
Far be it from me to want the Rangers to be at home. I just want them to earn it by hitting, fielding and pitching better right now. And that will correlate with better outcome during the playoffs...most of the time.
Don't look now but in addition to DO, Vladdy and MY have hit the skids also. Shhhh on the playoff talk.
@billydpowell - I agree with Paul Smith, Lewis was already at a high pitch count, Oliver was rested and it made perfect sense to pull Lewis at that point in the game. Besides, Lewis is getting up there in IP and we NEED him for the stretch...
I did not like the Oliver signing because all that I've remembered about him (over the past few seasons) was that when he came in (for the Angels/against the Rangers) he seemed to puke up a lead.
With that said, I was pleasantly suprised by his dominance over the first 3 months of 2010... but I always have that pit in my stomach when he takes the mound. Not sure why... but I just don't trust him.
It's funny that just a week ago I was plugging Harden in as our #2 in the playoffs... wow, how the mighty have fallen.
The A's worry me. I still think the Rangers win the AL West by a healthy 4-6 game margin... but the A's have the pitching to shut teams down. They would be really scary with a few more impact bats.
Unfortunately Harden will probably get another start hopefully we can put up about 10 runs for him. I would much rather see Holland or Harrison.
With half the team in an offensive slump the Rangers have been hard to watch during the road trip. Don't know if resting Vald is a good idea. He is DHing most of the time so he shouldn't be tired, it may be a very bad sign. Hope Kinsler is back soon.
It seems that DO was doing much better when he was pitching more.
I still think the Rangers win by 10.
The Rangers' slide of late is really more about offensive woes than it is about Rich Harden or Darren Oliver, regardless of how crappy those guys were their last times out. Vlad is ice cold, and looks really old and slow up there, missing fastballs & such. Kinsler is out, Hamilton is nicked up and going through a power outage, and we still have a black hole at 1B. Molina's been merely okay, but Guzman and Cantu both have showed absolutely nothing. Our best offensive player the last series was... GULP... Taylor Teagarden.
They will eventually get rolling, I'm sure. But like it was said above, this is August, and Texas always tanks in the late summer, historically. No one, especially not Oakland, is going to hand Texas the division or a WS berth.
@Scottus: Have you read the studies Joey's referencing? Because in the work I've seen, your point is addressed. The strongest explanation for the "home-field advantage" in baseball that I've seen is the fact that the home team bats last. But just because the advantage might not be due to "atmosphere" or "home cooking" or whatnot doesn't mean that it doesn't exist.
"It's funny what can transpire in a week. After Rich Harden logged seven frames of one-run baseball the week before last in Anaheim, at least one team beat writer mentioned something to the effect of Harden's return from the disabled list potentially being commensurate to a late-July trade for a decent starting pitcher "
I believe I said that before all the real writers said it!
I just don't want to play the stupid Yankees! I would rather play anyone on the road, than have home field advantage and play the Yankees anywhere!! I still have decade old nightmares about the Rangers playoffs history. PLEASE, could we play playoff games against someone else. And no, I do not want to stand up and face my fear, and feel how sweet it would be to overcome it. I'll wait until the second round for that, thank you.
A lot will be determined these next three weeks against the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Orioles and Twins. I keep going back to Nolan's stated pre-season goal of 92 wins. To reach that point, the Rangers need to go 28-23 (.549) while the A's need to go 36-16 (.692) and the Angels need to go 36-13 (.735) - suffice to say, a rather steep hill for OAK and LAA unless the Rangers provide a lot of help in the loss column.
If the Rangers can play at or slightly above .500 these next three weeks, I think that'll be enough to essentially wrap up the division. Then sights can be turned to home-field advantage, especially finishing ahead of whoever the AL Central champ is.
Josh, I could swear I recently (as in 3 or 4 months ago) read a study that said home field advantage was NOT because the home team bats last, but for the life of me I can't remember what the study concluded was the reason. I was very surprised, but the author said that batting last made almost no difference at all in his study. I think it boiled down to the home team being more familiar with the park, with several things making up a small part of the difference: knowing how to play caroms, take extra bases, etc. I was shocked, but perhaps it makes sense that those little things all taken together could add up.
If the Rangers are struggling when Harden's next turn comes up then you have to go with someone else, anyone. If we are rolling and scoring with ease then maybe you can give him one more chance.
Ok, this isn't the home field study I read, but it reaches the same conclusions: In games won by one run, batting last is significant, but in games won by more than one run it is not.
Link: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb6073/is_2_9/ai_n29363352/?tag=content;col1
quote:
there is virtually no difference between the probability that the home team will win a game and the probability that the visiting team will win the game when the game is won by more than one run. Since about 26 percent of the games played during the 2004 season were won by one run, the results of this study imply that a home-field advantage exists in only about one-quarter of major league baseball games. The results further indicate that the home team advantage in games won by one run is much larger than the eight-percentage point advantage implied by a simple analysis of the data.
Give the caption writing team a raise, hilarious.
The series went exactly as I suspected 1-2 2-1 1-2, 4-5 total, thats ok. But have seen enough of Harden now to know that unless he has the right ump he isnt going to get it done. Skip a turn and then get Holland up here.
@Andy Kaufman - yes, the offense is slumping but they will get it turned around and maybe, just maybe, they will be hitting on all cylinders when the playoffs arrive.
I am having a hard time watching them right now. I don't know what it is but I'm scared to death that are going to tank, and take me with them.
Maybe the offense is struggling because they put so much effort in establishing a large lead in the AL West, that now that they have it, they are letting off the pedal and wearing down.
Wash is good about rotating players to provide some rest/relief... he will figure it out. But when it's 115 degrees out, how in the world could anyone be up for playing baseball? I don't even like walking to my truck when it's that hot.
@SnowCourt - LOL... that's good stuff. I hate the freaking Yankees so much and I too have nightmares of Mickey "Suck Ass" Tettleton staring at his bat in the dugout. Ask my wife, I freaked out on the TV that night.
@ the stat geeks - arguing over home field advantages and disadvantages; it is what it is... the Rangers are much better playing at home than on the road. Call it batting last (which really does have an impact mentally on the visiting team, I believe), a hitters vs pitchers park, or whatever. Bottom line is that once the AL West is truly a non-issue, the Rangers need to go balls-to-the-wall and secure home field advantage. It's vital to them going deep in the POs.
If they start a series as visitors, I bet they don't make it out of the 1st round. I hate to say that... I don't want to be a Debbie Downer... but they're too young and too inexperienced to deal with that kind of pressure on the road. And yes, while it's only 1 game, it's a huge mental relief knowing that you're playing more games in front of your fans, then getting screamed at by Yankees or White sox fans (I'm lumping White Sox fans into the same conversation as Yankee fans... but only because it's Obama's team :)
Has anyone read, or heard, or know someone "in the know", speculating on what JD intends to do after the season? Would he really give up on a team that he helped build, and one that'ds going to make a run at a legit ring for the next 5+years... to go to a team that's riddled with bad contracts, injury prone stars, and a town/city that only says they love the Mets, when secretly they root for the Yakees? Not too mention he would have to pay the dreaded state income tax.
Seriously, the Mets farm system sucks... they have several really good players (Reyes, Wright, Beltran) but they can't stay on the field. Their pitching is mediocre, at best. Their manager doesn't seem like he knows what he's doing 1/2 the time. The fans are unforgiving (you think that if JD was the Mets GM when he traded Danks, Chris Young, etc... that they'd let him stick around... heck no). Also, you would think that whoever takes that job would have to blow up the team and start from scratch, correct? They should have done that years ago... but instead they try to patch holes with washed up stars or 1 hit wonders. Who knows, maybe JD likes the challenge... and you'd have to respect him for it if that was the case.
I would like to think that he maybe feels a sense of loyaty to a club that allowed him to grow into one of the top GMs in the game. He didn't get canned after he made 1 bad trade after another... someone (dare I say Hicks?) recognized his potential and gave the kid at a once in a lifetime shot at rebuilding a ballclub.
I realize that if the Mets GM spot opens up, and JD is a top candidate, they will throw a ton of money at him... but I hope he has the foresight (foresight, is that a word? looks funny) to see that he could become a legend in these parts, and he doesn't have to move to a huge media market to become rich/famous (I'm not assuming that's his goal, BTW). If he won a ring with the Rangers, he would be a KING around here. Move over Tom Landry...
So Wakamatsu and Adair got canned today; http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/08/09/mariners-fire-manager-don-wakamatsu/
Seattle is a very poorly run organization. I guess I never realized that but this Zduriencik guy is either really ignorant or severly ego driven.
It would be pretty cool if the Rangers could somehow bring both back to Texas. Let Adair work with the young pitchers and Wakamatsu could be another bench coach for Wash. I'm sure Wakamatsu wouldn't go for it but Adair may be lured back. He desrves alot of credit for the stable of young pitchers we boast.
Too bad... it sucks anytime someone gets fired... but I hope this is addition by subtraction and that maybe 1, or both, of them would like their old jobs back. (they obviously couldn't have their old jobs back... but you get my point).
Greenberg's DMN chat today -- I was VERY glad to read this regarding the importance of player development and the scouts:
JD and his staff have done an extraordinary job with the farm system. It is essential that we keep that going. I have seen over the years how a farm system can go from loaded to thin quickly, so we have to continue to do good work to constantly restock and reload. One of the things Nolan, JD and I have discussed is the possibility of adding more scouts. One thing we are certain to do is to show our appreciation for our scouts and entire front office by enrolling them in the Major League pension program which unfortunately has not been the case in a number of years. This is a reflection of how much we appreciate everyone in our organization and should make it easier to retain the great people we already have.
I think BBtiA has become the land of exile for ex Inside Corner junkies like me. I sometimes enjoy the comments as much as I enjoy the articles.
I believe I said that before all the real writers said it!
Yes, you did 2.0. Truly you are a god among mere mortals.
I just wrote up a quick Clubhouse post that should hopefully clear up some of the confusion about HFA: http://www.bbtia.com/the-clubhouse/2010/8/10/a-little-more-on-home-field.html