Tuesday Morning Rangers Notes: The Reality Check Edition
Wherein we celebrate the Rangers' magic number plunging to 24, my discovery of brilliant hip-hop group Binary Star ("Reality Check" has already rocketed nearly to the top of my all-time favorite tracks list) ... and Baseball Time in Arlington's name finally impacting the age 25-54 demographic in a way that it never quite has before:
● Josh Hamilton was swapped from center field to designated hitter before Monday evening's series opener in Kansas City due to "aches and pains" in his troublesome right knee; despite the one-night setback, manager Ron Washington believes he could return to the outfield on Tuesday (Richard Durrett, ESPNDallas.com)
[Here, we have a good example of how you can reconstruct timelines of all sorts if you pay close enough attention to the right sources. Hamilton was primed and ready to receive his second -- and final -- cortisone shot of the season back on August 1st, but team physicians wanted to refrain from administering that shot so early, as the inflammation-reducing effects of the medicine might wear off during the middle of a post-season run or (even worse) before the conclusion of the regular season. Despite that, however, he received the shot at some point during that same day and the Rangers effectively crossed the point of no return. Now, with more than a month left in the season, his knee tendinitis is yet again flaring up, and while one major newspaper is downplaying the situation and the other is evidently panicking, it seems apparent that the problem is chronic and not easily remediable.
One could easily question why the Rangers didn't plop Hamilton on the disabled list at that point and save the final cortisone bullet in the chamber for late August/early September, but the truth of the matter is that we're not in the room and aren't privy to the exact medicals; in any event, the disabled list can't be ruled out if the knee is yet again producing the sensation that it's going to "give out." Cortisone is not the panacea. It addresses the symptoms, not the root cause, and if it's already losing effectiveness with this much time left in the season, Hamilton's likely going to require ample final-month rest to fully guarantee his post-season availability.]
● Derek Holland has officially supplanted Rich Harden in the starting rotation, a move to which the latter consented; the entire starting rotation will receive an extra day of rest as a result of Thursday's off day (Jeff Wilson, Fort Worth Star-Telegram)
[This should quiet down some of the folks pleading for Cliff Lee to receive extra rest. The bigger story here, though, is the Harden-to-relief move, largely because of what I wrote on the idea a month and a half ago: "Four years ago, Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus [...] found that starting pitchers who (a) post high walk rates and (b) low isolated power rates have a tendency to enjoy better performance gains upon conversion into relievers than other starters-turned-relievers. Harden clearly fits part (a), but perhaps not so much with part (b). However, given that he's effectively a two-pitch guy at this point, perhaps there's some degree of sense to assigning him to the bullpen upon his healthy return [...] and seeing what he can do."
On the surface, this is still an interesting idea, but Silver's theory was premised on such bullpen prospects wielding strong strikeout rates in addition to the high walk rates and low isolated power totals. I don't know if anyone's noticed, but his strikeout rate -- one of the few good things he had going for him earlier this season -- has now also gone to hell as of late, so there's no longer much reason to believe he's going to see a sizable performance boost from this move. Of course, there wasn't much reason to believe he'd see anything resembling high-leverage work in September anyway, so this is the part where we stamp Harden as a lost cause, sadly shake our heads and wonder where things went so terribly wrong this year.]
Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (20)
Hopefully Josh can push through the pain this year but I'm more concerned about his future as the face of our Rangers. These types of injuries/conditions could be limited if Josh moves to First Base. Why not? Your thoughts.
I'm guessing that once Kinsler is back Hamilton gets rested a few days out of the lineup and he's fine. A flare up of the knee problem during the playoffs would be most unwelcome, so I would be just fine if they put him on the DL for a couple of weeks in September. When that magic number gets down to a dozen or so, put him on the shelf, perhaps with just enough time left for him to play in a couple of games before season's end to tune up.
Oh, and Holland back in the rotation, yay!
tball: Rosters expand in Sept., no need for a DL trip for Josh. The bigger problem is who replaces him in the lineup? This org. is desperately short on quality backups.
Murphy replaces Josh and Borbon plays center. It's simple.
Question - Why can he only get 2 cortisone shots per yet? Is it an MLB rule, or some sort of rule for medical purposes? Just curious why it is the case. As others have mentioned, I'm hoping once Kinsler, along with the Cruz return, we'll be able to rest Josh a little down the stretch.
medically speaking, usually don't want to give cortisone injections any more often than every 3 months
Just don't rest him on September 10th. I'm making a road trip up to The Ballpark and sitting 7 rows behind home plate. I want to see the best player in baseball play. Please.
If Harden can catch some magic in the bull pen, it would be like another trade but after the deadline.
Hamilton reminds me of Mickey antle sans switch hitting. (Sudden thought: Wonder if Mantle lasts as long if he were in today's MLB and pain killers were monitored?) Wash should have been pulling Hamilton anytime the outcome is no longer in doubt in any game. You could replace him with 5 outfielders and not match his production.
Harden has become the great bet for hitters. Can I get to 4 balls before he can throw 3 strikes? Look at how many pitches are being taken until Harden proves he can find the strike zone. The Rangers used to have a relief pitcher like that. his name was......WILSON! If he pitches much out of the Bull Pen i'd load up on Tobacco stocks 'cause Wash will be a 3 pack a game man. Maybe Bourbon stocks as well.
Hamilton's knees requiring regular cortisone shots drive right into the concerns around his durability. It will have to be evaluated when his FA status comes up as to how many years can a club not named the (damn) Yankees truly afford to bid.
Thank God the Harden saga is coming to an end. Win some (Lewis); Lose some (Harden).
All these health issues concerning key players really demonstrate the need for organizational depth at all positions and the risksthat naturally occur when a club goes all in on an FA and then does not have the cash for quality depth.
IMO, quality depth is of more value then the one superstar FA.
Assuming limited or a fixed resource amount, it would be interesting to model the trade offs (Hint to any linear programming geeks out there). I guess one could seek to maximize club WAR. Then one culd use historical measures of time on the DL list by position and age for FAs.
As an example, use my field - public education. Due to all causes teachers tend to be out about 10% of the school year. Therefore, substitutes teach about 10% of the time. Substitute teachers tend to be a neglected area in many (not mine), but many districts. A great deal of teaching enhancement can be had at a minimal cost by improving the hiring of quality and providing educational staff development to substitute teachers.
Note Lee's won - loss record. While it says little about Lee, it says volumes about the (lack) of importance of any one player and the overall importance of team quality.
Making the logical extension - is it better to spend $100m - $120m extending Lee or is it better to spread the cash around several players?
I tend to agree with the spread the money around idea too, but I'm starting to lean toward getting the most WAR out of a single roster spot, since we can use our loaded farm system to cheaply fill in the gaps.
"since we can use our loaded farm system to cheaply fill in the gaps."
My counter would be that last year the Rangers drafted for signability and not the best player available. Did they even get one of the top 50? Further, they dropped out of the international signings which have in the past proven to be very good for the club.
My concern is that arbitration is going to require many millions more since the staff is maturing. Therefore, does the club really have the bucks to keep up the quality in the farm system AND pursue Lee.
I hope so, but think not.
Jon: Having done some analysis of the team's payroll, I do believe that they have the financial flexibility to retain Lee and keep the farm system going. For one, don't assume that the players they drafted this year do not have high-end potential. I believe they can be very good but may take longer to develop than some of the higher rated prospects available. Also, if the ownership situation had resolved before the draft, there's a good chance that they reach for players with higher bonus demands (Zach Cox is a name I'd bet would have been drafted). If Vlad, Harden, and Fransisco walk as FAs, I believe they could resign Lee and lock up Adrian Beltre then move MY to DH.
"I believe they could resign Lee and lock up Adrian Beltre then move MY to DH."
- I wish I shared your optimism. I really hope you are right and I am wrong.
"move MY to DH"
- Now that would be interesting. I really do not see that happening no matter how good an idea it is.
I'm becoming more and more convinced that the Rangers need to find a replacement for Vlad who can play a reliable COF and has a good bat. Then, the "starting" lineup should include Josh in CF, with Murphy and the new big bat at the COF positions, and Cruz DHing. Borbon becomes the 5th OF.
However the "starting" lineup should only start maybe 80-90 games, with Josh DHing the rest of the time, Nellie moving to RF, and Borbon in CF. If Josh and Nellie each get 20 games off, with Murph and the new COF getting 15 games off, that's 70 games where Josh is either off or DHing. That's how you save his knees. Come playoffs 2011, Josh goes back to CF full time.
For Michael Young, I would strongly consider a move to 1B as an option. Although, all in all, I can live with MY at 3B for one more year if Moreland looks like he's continuing to develop out into a really nice hitter.
If Adrian Beltre was brought in, an option would be to move MY to 1B and Moreland to DH, with Murph/Josh/Nellie as the OF, and Moreland sliding into RF for the 70-80 games Josh DHs. Under that scenario, when MY needs a night off at 1B, Moreland can slide into that spot, with Josh moving to DH and Borbon in CF. Essentially, Borbon would be backing up CF/LF/RF/DH/1B by way of the versatiliy of Josh and Moreland.
Okay...I will answer my own question! Seems like everyone agrees Josh's knee is a HUGE concern...so here's the solution!
Move Josh to 1B...MY to DH...Sign David DeJesus or Werth.
OR
Move Josh to 1B...Trade MY for 3B and depth...And still sign DeJesus or Werth!
Moving Josh to 1B is a bad idea. There's no evidence that he is a good defensive 1B, and 1B still invloves making a lot of defensive plays. Given that, if you want to protect the knee, he's a DH. If you want to maximize his value, he's a CF. If you want to split the difference, he's either a COF or he splits time between CF and DH.
DeJesus makes a lot of sense to me, even if Josh moves to DH. An OF of Murphy/Josh/DeJesus with Nellie at DH and Moreland at 1B. Josh gets 70-80 games at DH, with Nellie moving to the OF and Borbon manning CF.
I figured Harden was a fraud back in March.
I figured Harden was a fraud back in March.