Sunday Morning Open Thread: Four Questions
It's a hard knock life ... for Frank Francisco.1. How alarmed are you over Frank Francisco's DL-necessitating strained lat and its potential implications on the Rangers' post-season bullpen?
2. What is your optimal post-season lineup, assuming that both Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler return healthy and perform reasonably well from here on out?
3. A random thought: What if the Rangers decided that re-signing Josh Hamilton was unrealistic/unwise and decided to maximize his value by giving him a much heavier share of the starts in center field in 2011-12 (which makes a bit more sense if you can acquire a left fielder whose value is significantly higher than that of Julio Borbon in center field)? Is the injury/durability risk attached to a move from left to center field actually less severe than we think it is?
4. Does the fact that Tommy Hunter's 2010 strikeouts-per-nine-innings ratio has fallen below the 4.5 mark -- the threshold below which Bill James believes it is very difficult for pitchers to have legitimate careers -- and his homer rate has climbed above 1.50 per nine innings hinder your confidence in how he might perform during the post-season?
[Yes, once again the question bank has virtually run dry. If you have an interesting idea or three for a question next week, don't be afraid to throw it out there.]
35 Comments | in Open Thread, The Season
Reader Comments (35)
1) Somewhat ... let's see how he responds to treatment and rehab ...
2) Andrus SS, Young 3B, Hamilton LF, Guerrero DH, Cruz RF, Kinsler 2B, Moreland 1B, Molina/Treanor C, Borbon CF ... this lineup is solid defensively in the outfield and the infield ... OK, so maybe 3B is a little shaky ... and the lineup utilizes our speed to advantage ...
3) No, it isn't ... leave him in left ...
4) Tommy will be fine ... he's in his second year, and he's one of the kids that's still "learning" how to pitch at the ML level ... done OK for himself, if I do say so ... for a #4, we could do worse ...
for the most part, the kids have done fairly well this season ... they've been exposed to the pressure that comes from heightened expectations, and then from the added pressure of a successful pennant race, thus far ... and now, they have the chance to take it to another level, in the playoffs ... who will "seize the moment", and who won't ... that will be the best part about all of this ... do our youngsters have it in them to be "Champions" ...
We will see ... GO RANGERS !!!
1. very
2. Andrus, Young, Hammy, Cruz, Vlad, Kinsler, Murphy, Moreland, Treanor
3. Leave him in left
4. Hunter is a solid back of the rotation pitcher. Nothing more
1. Not overly concerned. Francisco was not exactly a sure thing when put out there. Ogando can fill his role pretty well.
2. Andrus, Young, Hamilton, Guerrero, Cruz, Murphy, Kinsler, Moreland, Molina/Treanor
3. I don't see a good baseball organization moving Hamilton to CF full time. Injury risk is higher because of more space to cover, in which a 240 pound locomotive running into things at full speed is naturally going to create some destruction.
4. No.
5. Sending you an email.
1) yes, I am concerned about how the bullpen would look w/out FX2 for the playoffs.
2)
Kinsler 2b
MY 3b
Hambone cf
Vlad dh
Cruz rf
Murphy lf
Molina c
Moreland 1b
Andrus ss
3) I think Hamilton would be fine to start in CF next year, if we add a quality LF.
4) Love Big Game Hunter, but not sure what to expect from him moving forward. What happened to that big swing and miss curveball?
1. Not at all concerned. Frankie's appearances lately were fraught with extra basehits. Kirkman and O'Day can easily fill the void.
2. As far as the lineup goes, bench Borbon and give CF to Hamilton, LF to Murphy, and RF to Cruz. Give Treanor 80% of the starts...Molina ain't hitting and clogs up the basepaths when he does happen to get on.
Andrus
Kinsler
Hamilton
Cruz
Murphy
Guerrero
Moreland
Young
Treanor
3. Leave Hamilton in CF. As we've seen lately, LF is no panacea. He still runs into walls there. His speed and athleticism make him an extraordinary center fielder.
4. Worried about Tommy. Wouldn't use him in the playoffs except for long relief.
(1) Better to shut him down and get him ready for a potential post season run. We seem pretty deep, albeit by committee to cover the 8th for now
(2) Elvis-SS Elvis-SS
MY-3rd MY-3rd
Josh-CF Josh-LF
Vlad-DH Vlad-DH
Nellie-RF Nellie-RF
Murph-LF Kinsler-2nd
Kinsler-2nd Cantu-1st
Bengie/Treanor-C Bengie/Treanor-C
Moreland-1st Borbon-CF
(3) I think his body size, past abuse and style of play make it unwise to play him primarily in CF during the regular season. His health and production this year seem to be proof of that.
(4) Not really. These are the dog days in both endurance and the hardest time to pitch at our ballpark because of the heat. The post season will provide a renewed energy level and the weather will be better. I think Big Game will be fine.
1) Not really worried. I trust the whole bullpen, and with Kirkman and Strop having nice years, as well as the return of Nippert, a good arm will be left off the playoff roster. If it's FF because of injur, so be it, as long as it isn't Feliz.
2) Andrus (SS), Kinsler (2B), Hamilton (CF), Cruz (RF), Vlad (DH, Murphy (LF), Young (3B), Moreland (1B), Molina (C). If MY gets hot down the stretch, he bumps past Murphy into the 6 hole.
3) I think the injury risk of playing CF is overrated on a play-by-play basis. CF does generate more chances (and thus more chances to get hurt). If the Rangers decide to make Hamilton their CF, I'd like to see him DH ~50 games to offset it. But let me ask this: If they bring back Vlad, or sign another veteran DH, or sign a corner OF, then you're still in the same situation you are now. Namely, what has Borbon shown you that makes you think he should be in the lineup instead of Murphy? As it is now, Hamilton is the CF again so that Murph can play. I'd love to see Vlad let go and replaced with a similarly good, aging, affordable bat who can really field LF/RF. Then rotate Hamilton/Cruz/New guy through the DH position to keep all 3 fresh. Hamilton starts in CF with Cruz/Murphy/New Guy filling LF/RF/DH. When Hamilton DHs or gets the night off, Borbon plays CF
4) Yes, Hunter concerns me. I'm still interested in seeing what Rich Haarden has down the stretch. If a #4 has to pitch one game against the Yankees in a 7-game set, Im not sure I wouldn't rather have a 50/50 chance of getting the "good" Rich Harden vs what Tommy Hunter rolls out against good lineups. Long-term, Hunter should develop into a really nice #4/5. As of now, he's up and down (mostly up against bad teams and down against good ones).
1) Not worried.....it's not like Frankie is a lock to "lock" things down when he comes into pitch. Might be better off without him!
2) Andrus SS
Young 3B
Hamilton CF
Guerrero DH
Kinsler 2B
Cruz RF
Murphy LF
Moreland 1B
Treanor C
3) Josh would be ok in CF......
4) No....Hunter will be fine.
I don't think there is a 50/50 chance you see the good Harden. The fact that he hasn't been dfa'd and launched into the sun yet is disturbing.
1. I guess I'm in the minority and say that I'm very concerned about the Francisco injury. The Ranger timetables for injury return cannot be trusted. I think the Rangers can cover the eighth, but it moves every pitcher in the bullpen up one level of importance. The more power arms available the better.
2.
Andrus
Young
Hamilton
Vlad
Cruz
Kinsler
Murphy
Treanor
Moreland
3. I would make sure it was completely unrealistic to sign him long term before taking that step. I am concerned about the knee long term.
4. Tommy Hunter would concern me in a big game. I think we've seen the best of what he has to offer. Still a better option than any other pitcher on the roster and probably a better option than having every pitcher on 3 days rest in the playoffs.
1.) I like our pen even without Frankie, but, let's not have any more injuries, okay?
2.) Andrus, Kinsler, Hamilton, Cruz, Vlad, Young, Murphy, Molina, Moreland. It ain't happening, I know, but you asked. In reality lineups don't matter much , so leave it pretty much as it is now. Put Kinsler and Cruz in there at 5 and 6.
3.) Play Josh anywhere, just make sure that his belt is attached to a bungee-cord tether stuck into the ground and of the right length to keep him from running into the wall. He damn near gave me a heart attack Friday in the ninth. Bad Josh!
4.) Tommy Hunter = Scott Feldman -- highly luck dependent, back of rotation guys. Sure you can trot Tommy out there in October; Maybe you'll get lucky.
1) It's not great if he's not available, but he's far from a lock down 8th inning guy. Opposition seems to frequently nick him for a run. And it's not like he has post season experience that we'd miss. But it's better if he's available.
2) Andrus, Young, Kinsler, Hamilton, Guerrero, Cruz, Moreland, Molina/Treanor, Borbon.
3) Hamilton's a wild man in center. Nothing ever happens until something does. Even though he's the best centerfielder they have, his presense is far more valuable then where he plays. No to center for him.
4) Why should I wring my hands over the guy who is 11-2? As someone once wrote, on every losing pitchers tombstone it says "but he had great stuff". I'll take my chances with the guy who is 20-8 over the last two years.
5) No rush on this really, but I wonder if at some future point we could get a few words on Miguel De Los Santos? Hickory is a long way from Arlington, but his stats are some of the most intriguing in the organzation. I'm wondering what the future might hold for this kid.
2. Lineup:
Andrus
Kinsler
Hamilton
Vlad
Cruz
Young
Murphy
Molina/Treanor
Moreland/Cantu
Kinsler was batting .300+ before the injury - top of the lineup guy. Young can protect Cruz, Murphy can protect Young. Perfect. It ll depends on if Kinsler can still hit though. Hopefully he hasn't lost the stroke. I do think you throw Borbon in there occasionally to mix it up with speed. he's been solid lately. But this is optimal.
1. Not terribly worried. Let him rest until the last week of the season and bring him back just to get back in the swing of things. I think O'Day and Ogando can cover for him, with Kirkman picking up the slack on the back end.
2. Andrus, MY, Hambone, Vlad, Cruz, Kins, Murphy, Moreland, Catcher
3/4. Allow me to go a little off the reservation here. An idea that's been floating around my head the past couple of weeks: if you're not comfortable giving Hamilton an extension, trade him. The Dodgers are down on Matt Kemp right now. Could Josh, Borbon, Hunter and Scheppers net you Kemp and Kershaw? Instead of signing Cliff, you sign Crawford. That's one sweet outfield.
1. I think that (a healthy) Frankie would be an integral part of the postseason bullpen; however, I think we have enough extra arms that I'm not too worried.
2. undecided
3. I do think we overestimate the injury risk associated with CF over LF.
4. I just think they need to be careful with him. If his command doesn't look right, have a short leash; don't just stick with him for the hell of it.
1. A bit, Ogando should be able to fill his role to a degree in terms of performance, the loss of depth isn't really a big deal in the playoffs.
2. Kinsler / Young / Hamilton / Vlad / Cruz / Moreland / Andrus / Catcher / Borbon
3. I think they will keep him in left just because it's not all that realistic to expect them to get a really good left fielder to make the LF-CF transition necessary for Josh. There isn't a outfield prospect knocking at the door, so the only way would be through FA or trade, and Borbon's defense is at least good enough that you need to get a really good LF (like Crawford) to justify that move. I think there are other areas on the team where that resource would be better spend, like catching, DH, or a reliable starting pitcher.
4. Tommy is okay in a #5 pitcher role during the regular season, and has performed well as a whole so far, but there are a large number of red flags: he doesn't strike people out (somewhat weighed by the fact he walks few), he gives up home runs, he doesn't get ground balls, and he pitches up in the zone - particularly when his command is not there. He should be the kind of pitcher that gives you a couple of good starts, then gets bombed, and repeat. I would explore using him as a part of a package to get a better starting pitcher in the offseason.
1. Get Frankie a rest while you can they be fine with what they have in the pen until he is ready to go again.
2. Andrus ss, Young 3b, Kinsler 2b, Vlad dh, Hamilton cf, Cruz rf, Murphy lf, treanor/Molina c, moreland/cantu 1b. My justification for this lineup is they were rolling good & scoring the most runs of the year in June & early July when this was the lineup one thru six in the order. Also I would give treanor three games & Molina two i think matt has earned it. Also I would still platoon moreland & Cantu because at some point Cantu will hit he has too much if a track record.
3. I would play Josh were ever he is needed I would like to see him in left but do what is the best to win games I would never sign Josh to more than a three year deal due to his past.
4. Hunter is a number 4 starter I like him alot he is a competitor but I worry about him long term in our park being a flyball pitcher. I worry about him & cliff lee just the same with Lee being a fylball pitcher when they got him I said I hope they just use him as a rental & don't sign him long term see his previous record at rangers ballpark.
I swear some of you Ranger fans are the most negative group of fans I've ever seen. A guy is 11-2, only 24 yrs old, has schooled the Rays twice, counting last year, and you want to trade him who act like he MAY do well in the playoffs. You are the same people who want to throw MY under a bus and trade Hamilton. I bet you wanted to trade Nolan Ryan too back in the day or get rid of Rusty Greer and/or Pudge.
Now does Tommy need some work. Yes. He's young and not every young pitcher is Cahill. Is MY defense declining, sure, but lighten up a little Roger Eberts and enjoy the team we've got.
1. I am worried. Frankie was amazing for most of the year, just had a rough spot at the beginning and a rough spot before his injury. Hopefully hes just on there 15 days and can come back healthy in September.
2. Tough calls. But since lineup order doesn't make much difference in terms of additional runs, I don't think I'd do any massive shakeups. That way nobody has to adjust to a new role or anything.
Andrus/Young/Hamilton/Guerrero/Cruz/Kinsler/Murphy/Moreland/Molina.
I'd think most seriously about putting Kinsler up in the order and moving Andrus down, but I think that ship has sailed.
3. I'd have to know more data about LF vs. CF and injury risk. Hamilton is a great CF, so I think if we got an above-average LF option I would be alright with moving Hamilton to center. I would enter negotiations with Hamilton this winter with the idea that he takes a significant discount or it doesn't happen. No sense paying him tons of money after a career, MVP year, especially with his background.
4. Yeah I'd be a bit worried about Hunter getting playoff starts simply because a pitcher with his skillset (that you mentioned above) is going to get rocked from time to time. It would be pretty inconvenient for it to come in a playoff game. I think Harden and Hunter duel for the rest of the season for who should get the Game 4 starts in playoff series. I'm hoping for Harden, but I just don't see it happening. There's much worse number 4 pitchers than Tommy Hunter.
5.
1. Not worried. Gives him break while enabling him to retool out of the spotlight ... forces the opposition to see other 8th inning options ... and then Frankie returns with a new twist going into the playoffs. Luxury for TEX to have 2 options behind every role. Must be awful scary for others ... especially the older roster teams.
2. Andrus, Young, Hamilton, Vlad, Cruz, Moreland, Kinsler, Treanor, Borbon. The post season rotation: Lee, Wilson, Lewis. Holland or Harden off the 25man in favor of Taveras.
3. Keep Josh in LF and Borbon in CF. TEX has rushed too many guys ... Davis, Smoak, and Borbon. Borbon will be great.
4. Giving Bill James all his due ... Tommy Hunter is the epitome of the pitch to contact philosophy ... performances like his last outing build confidence ... not doubt. Wins are important and innings pitched ... not K/9 or even HR/9.
1. Not remotely. The Turtle sucks.
1) Not worried a bit. Yes, he's become better of late but Ogando has filled his void nicely and can continue to do so in the playoffs. Because of the off days during the playoffs, we only need three "elite" relievers, and Feliz, Ogando and Oliver fit those bills. If he comes back, that's great, but I'm not overly concerned. I'm more concerned about his recent injury history and whether or not we should offer him arbitration this year.
2) Andrus (R), Young (R), Hamilton (L), Vlad (R), Cruz (R), Moreland (L), Kinsler (R), Molina (R), Borbon (L). It's a constant parade of RRL, Cubs got exposed a few years back against the Dodgers for having five R in a row, and while Kinsler is much better than Moreland, having four righties in a row worries me just a bit.
3) I don't like the way this question is phrased, as it essentially tells Josh "hey, we don't care about your long-term career, we're all about the now." I'm happy with Borbon, for now at least, and Beltre is due in late 2011 or 2012. Not going to burn him out.
4) He's not part of my post-season rotation anyway so it doesn't matter. I make him a solid relief option. He can throw 95-96 in short bursts and has a dynamite slider.
1. Not worried would love to have him but if he's not there we'll do fine.
2.
Kinsler
Young
MVP
Cruz
Vlad
Andrus
Murphy
Moreland
Molina/Treanor
4. The only thing that worries me about Hunter is he likes to field hard ground balls with his pitching hand. Seem him do it twice and both times he got hammered afterwords. Can't argue with the results he's put up as a #4. Just teach him how to field his position with his glove. I would be surprised if he starts more than one game in the playoffs.
hasn't hamilton done much better in the 5 spot this year. why does most everybody have him in the 3 spot.
.411 in the 5, .308 in the 3
here's the question i would like to see asked:
what kind of season would the rangers be having if, instead of Elvis Andrus playing every day at shortstop, we had a poorly trained golden retriever?
1. Surprised but I'm not a big Frankie fan, he's a choker. Replace him with Scheppers.
2. Andrus (SS), Young (3B), Kinsler (2B), Hamilton (LF/CF), Guerrero (DH), Cruz (RF), Moreland (1B), Bengie (C), Murphy (CF/LF).
3. Ehhh...his value is his bat not his position.
4. He's fine. He has to pitch each time he goes out there.
Question: Who will manage the Rangers in 2011?
1. Not very -- pen is good and can get the job done without him if needed.
2. Andrus
Young
Kinsler
Vlad
Hamilton
Cruz
Moreland/Cantu
Molina/Treanor
Bourbon
3. Leave him in LF
4. If the drops stay around, there is concern -- if he gets back above the lines, there is no problem. He will be the fourth pitcher behind Wilson Lee and Lewis for the playoff rotation.
5. Possible question -- how much trust do you as an individual put in overall statistics as an indicator of a given players' success/failure? How accurate have the prediction made by Bill James et al been?
1. not worried. o'day, oliver, kirkman, and ogando have all been solid. we can bring up strop or scheppers from AAA to supplement if frankie's gonna be out for the playoffs
2. with everyone healthy, andrus-SS , young - 3B , kinsler - 2B , hamilton - LF , vladdy - DH , cruz - RF , moreland - 1B , treanor/molina - C , borbon - CF (murphy's bat comes at the cost of putting hamilton in center. this could work for the playoffs but i would not want to do this long term)
3. gotta leave hamilton in left or else he's gonna get worn out
4. hunter's great as a 4th starter; no need to splash money at him in the future though
1. Yes. Over the course of the season, Frankie has easily been one of our top 3 relievers. It blows that he's' hurt again.
2. Kinsler 2B, Elvis SS, Hamilton CF, Cruz RF, Young 3B, Vlad DH, Murphy LF, Moreland 1B, Whoever C
3. He's probably more valuable overall in Left. Lower chance of getting hurt and affecting the bat, and he's only a good CF... but he's a superb LF. One of the best in the game.
4. I'm a bit concerned, yeah. I don't start him in a playoff series unless I must, but he's a fine regular season #5 guy
1. Well, the good news is he's got as much as a month to heal up, which could turn out to be a blessing in disguise if it means one of our best (and most frequently used) relievers is fresh for the postseason.
Frankie doesn't have the greatest history when it comes to nagging injuries, but if he's not rushed back like he was initially, he'll hopefully be ready to go when it counts.
2.
Kinsler
Cruz
Young
Hamilton
Guerrero
Murphy
Moreland
Treanor
Andrus
3. Regardless of the contract situation, you play him in center, and your're detracting from his value by putting him in a position where he's less defensively apt. Unless we're assuming we land someone like Crawford, Werth or DeJesus in the offseason, that seems like a potential zero sum game.
I don't know exactly how much the durability question ties into the equation, considering there's often quite a bit of ground to to cover in LF too, especially at the RBiA, but I'd prefer to maximize his and the overall outfield's defensive value unless we really can bring in one of the aforementioned hotshot COF's.
4. If Rich Harden could just pitch like a shadow of himself on a regular basis, I'd be fine with Hunter being left of the postseason roster, actually. Neither of those things are likely to happen though.
1. I have very little concern. I have had trouble seeing Franky as a major postseason factor ever since Ogando showed up, and since Kirkman has been impressive so far, I see no reason why Franky's absence from the bullpen will have any detrimental effects.
2. I don't see Murphy getting any less playing time than he has seen the past few weeks (even with the return of Cruz) and I'd like to see a rotation of Moreland and Cantu at 1st... Both would be excellent pinch-hitting options for one another late in close games. That being said:
1)Andrus, 2)Young, 3)Hammy, 4)Vlad, 5)Nelly, 6)Kinsler, 7)Murphy, 8)Treanor, 9)Moreland/Cantu
3. As much as I hate to look at Hamilton in terms of "trade value", if the possibility of resigning him isn't realistic, I think that a move to CF would actually be more better for the club - with MURPHY in LF
4. So the guy had a few less-than-ideal starts. Big deal. You could make the case that Hunter isn't a 1 or 2 pitcher because half of his wins in 2010 were made possible because of circumstantial run support. But I think he can be a major contributor in the postseason. He isn't a strikeout machine, but neither is Dallas Braden - and look what he is capable of doing: a 4-hit shutout against us on saturday and a perfecto against the rays on mothers' day, two playoff contenders with potent lineups
1. Somewhat
2. Go with Murphy and Moreland and ride it out
3. Play him anywhere
4. How can longtime Ranger fans be this spoiled? You have a guy like Hunter who has been consistent and simply done the job and you are worried about him? I can think of a hundred things we better be worried about rather than him. Give him the ball and let him go.
1) Franky's injury dosent worry me because a) Bullpen will be fine without him and b) happened far enough out so as to let it heal in time to be ready for the post season
2) For those who want to shake this lineup up, just let me remind you what happened to the mavs a few years back when they shook their lineup up in the playoff's - Golden State Series. So the lineup should be, Tiny E, Young, Ham, Vladdy, Nelly, Kins, Molina, Moreland/Cantu, Juilo (or in Murph is playing, then slide him behind kins)
Some day, I need someone to convince me how CF is so much rougher on a player's health than a corner spot...
"There's more ground to cover"...this makes zero sense. An outfielder has a finite amount of ground he actually *can" cover...there's a "circle" around him that would indicate the area he can actually run to in order to field balls. And there's no foul line walls in CF either...
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