Wednesday Evening Rangers Notes: Stuff That Make You Wonder
If you wanted to see Manny Ramirez playing in Arlington down the stretch, it will probably interest you to know that yes, he has hit trade waivers, but will probably be claimed by the better-waiver-priority White Sox before he can reach the Rangers, and would require a $4.25 million commitment that some baseball people apparently believe to be way too much for the amount of production he would supply:
● From the "stuff that looks superficially correct but probably isn't" pile emanates this post by Richie Whitt of the Dallas Observer, in which he uses win-loss records to compare this year's Rangers squad to last year's through 125 games and concludes that Texas is basically "the same team in a crappier division." Fortunately, we have better ways of gauging a team's talent level than simply eyeballing win-loss records, such as wins above replacement (which strips contextual performance from the equation).
And this is where Whitt's assertion breaks down, or at least it does if you consider a projected four- to five-win difference significant enough to refute the "Texas is the same team" notion: the Rangers amassed 21.8 wins above replacement between their offense (wOBA) and defense (UZR) last year, working out to around 16.8 wins if prorated through 125 games. This season, they're already sitting pretty at 20.5 wins above replacement (again, through just 125 games), and are on pace to finish somewhere between 26-27 wins. The improvement is far less exaggerated on the pitching side (FIP), such that the difference is likely no more than one win either way, but there's some evidence here to suggest that the identical win-loss records are not indicative of being the "same team" talent-wise, as it were.
● If there was already growing opposition towards the construction of publicly financed stadiums, the recent leak of numerous team financial documents probably only further entrenched the opposition and its cause, because today there's a huge kerfuffle over the revelation that the Marlins actually turned huge profits during the time that they contended they were only breaking even financially -- the "centerpiece fiscal argument" that helped secure the new stadium that will cost Miami-Dade County taxpayers billions of dollars before everything is said and done. In essence, Marlins team executives lied about the team's profitability in order to help secure a new stadium.
Now, tie all of this into the recent line of discussion about whether the Rangers should erect a new stadium in the next 5-10 years (which is highly unlikely, but then that never stopped anyone from talking about it before). I will acknowledge that neither the location nor the design of the Ballpark are conducive to fully maximizing team revenues, but this is common knowledge and not the real issue -- the real issue is whether erecting a new retractable-roof facility is cost-effective, and whether Rangers ownership should pour significant funds into its construction that might be better allocated elsewhere. I suspect the answer to this question is 'no,' but even if you feel differently, I think it's reasonable to suggest that this Marlins stadium fiasco will make it at least a little more difficult to secure public funding for such projects going forward, and likelier that the Rangers stay put through at least 2020 than before.
Analysis, Rumors, The Season
Reader Comments (33)
I keep clicking on that moron's sad little blog every day and I hate myself for doing it. I think the reason why I do is that I'm addicted to the Rangers like a crack addict to, well, crack, and can't read enough things Rangers. But he is really, really bad at what he do and he is really, really dumb (or he just says half cocked stupid $$$$ to get people's ire up). Either way, he is somewhat pathetic in the topics he regularly choose to blog about. And hey, that's fine - its his blog, his world - go nuts. But I cringe when he dares to write anything about the Rangers. Much the same way I do when RG or JFE does. It would be the equivalent of me blogging about nuclear fission (fusion?) - something I know nothing about. Just like RW and the Rangers.
I don't say this in a mean spirted way, really I don't. It has just become clear that if you want insightful and knowledgeble (that doesn't look spelled correctly) commentary on the Rangers you are far better served sticking to places like BBTiA, Lone Star Ball, The NB Report or spending 5 minutes talking to me. I'm awesome.
Go Rangers.
Random thought - imagine if for 1 month the only 3 people that you could follow on Twitter were JFE, Richie Whitt and Randy Galloway. Throw in a Skip Bayless and say, a Sean Salisbury. Can you imagine how painful that would be? By the end of every day you would need to strangle someone.
It astounds me that RBiA could be considered obsolete after only a 26 year run.
I think the city of Dallas should push for a downtown ballpark for the simple fact of urban development in the downtown area. American Airlines has done some of the job - albeit at the expense of The West End (remember when the west end used to be the shiznit?). Take a look at Coors Field in Denver and what the Nationals hope to be doing in southern D.C. I seriously doubt it would happen - but there are benefits to the taxpayers and economy that the City of Dallas should look into - especially after screwing the pooch on the Cowboys Stadium deal.
Actually I think the location of the ballpark IS the best place to maximize team revenues -- simply because so far no other municipality in the region has shown any desire to pony up more $$$ than Arlington. Until that changes the team has no reason to consider building elsewhere. I don't see another ballpark being built anywhere in North Texas for at least 10-12 years, and I don't even see serious discussion of it amongst team and area officials for several years.
Stadium construction subsidized by cities?
Hello?
Anybody noticed the recent economic downturn?
Anybody familiar with what Bill Gross calls the "New Normal"?
Folks the party is over.
For a very, very, very long time.....................................................
While stadium location is a big deal to me (I live in Dallas and would definitely go to more games if the stadium were located in, say, Fair Park), I think to most fans it's a moot point. The stadium is centrally located for the metroplex, and a move to Dallas would alienate fans from Ft. Worth, HEB, Arlington and Mansfield. The fact of the matter is that this is not a "baseball town." Best way to remedy that is to MAKE it a baseball town, by competing or appealing to the fan base. Dallas was not a "basketball town" before Mark Cuban, so here's hoping Greenberg can do the same for the Rangers.
Good point Stark. I was going to say something along those lines. It seems to make sense that moving the Ballpark to downtown Dallas would increase revenues, I wonder how much of that is actually true. Because right now you are getting prob an proportionate amount of people from Dallas and Fort Worth (and surrounding areas). If you moved it to Dallas, you probably lose some of the people West of Dallas. Could you make up for that by being downtown? Possibly, but I'm not 100% sold that it's a given.
But bottom line is you want people to come... WIN. Nobody gave a damn about the Mavs in the 90s. Now they sell out every game. The Stars were sold out in the 90s, now nobody gives a damn about them. (The only exception is the Cowboys but football will always be the exception especially in TX)
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How about this idea:
Congress amends the stimulus bill (ARRA) to award $1.5billion to the winner of the World Series every year to be used to build a new stadium, parking garages, access highways ... whatever they need ... or even if they don't need it.
Consider it just a little bit bigger ARRA road project with those nice signs.
Might as well use the money for something worthwhile.
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what is this crap?????????????
@ Trey
Check your math.
I can tell you right now that if they did build a ballpark downtown, they'd have at least one more season ticket holder (me). I personally hate the 45 minutes - 1 hour drive (depending on traffic) out to the middle of nowhere. It's the reason I only go to 3 or 4 baseball games a year and no Cowboy games (but I will go to the Arkansas vs. A&M game because, well, it's closer than Fayetteville).
I'm not sure why it's so hard for Arlington to have a DART rail like going through that place with a stop right by the stadiums...would make things a BILLION times easier for Dallas Co. folks. Not sure why Arlington doesn't have ANY mass transit for that matter, but that's a whole other issue (what are they doing with the tax revenue from the stadiums and Six Flags, anyways?).
I'd say Whitt is right. It is basically the same team as last year in a crappier division. Not only are the Angels a lot worse but so are the Mariners. This team is a little better going into September since they have Cliff Lee. Using WAR has problems of its own.
"kerfuffle"... seriously? C'mon...
I cannot think of ANYTIME in the history of the Rangers (as I know it... from say 1990 on) that the pitching was so much better than the offense. Look at the line up last night... its littered with guys hitting under .250 yet we are winning games... and doing so only because of consistently good pitching.
I'm not up to speed on when we get Kins and Nellie back... and even though Blanco is coming around at the plate, we can't have 3 or 4 hitters in a playoff caliber lineup hitting this poorly. If I'm Wash, I give Cantu another week and if he doesn't catch fire, I play Moreland full time, regardless of who's pitching.
If everyone's healthy and Moreland can provide adequate production at 1B, we can live with a catcher hitting .200 but Molina is better that that... he needs to start hitting his weight (which would be a pretty nice BA, huh?). **my son and I have an argument going on what Molina weighs... I say he's around 300 while my son says it's more like 265-270. What say you?
I definitely agree that this team has better pitching and just "feels" like a better team than last year's team. But maybe someone can help explain to me why our better WAR numbers don't translate into more wins than last year? If the Rangers end up with say only 88-90 wins at the end of the season, why does having a much better team than last year only translate into 2-3 more wins, especially when the Angels and Mariners are definitely worse than last year?
I live in Murphy, so I think the new ballpark should be built here.
Joey, this article you wrote is an abortion
@ t ball
soooo...would the ballpark and patrons be subject to Murphy's Law?
Okay - you know the rules - every time Joey brings up WAR, you have to take a shot!
Man I wish I could find a place to buy Ed Hardy t-shirts online.
If 92 wins is the magic number (and I'm not saying it is...)
A's - 37 remaining games and would have to go 29-8 to hit 92 wins
Angels - 34 remaining games and would have to go 29-4 to hit 92 wins
Rangers - 36 remaining games and would have to go 20-16 to hit 92 wins
The Rangers can very easily hit 92 wins; 20 games vs. .500+ teams... but 4 are vs. Toronto, 2 are vs Detroit, and 7 are vs the A's... all of which are playing for next year and will be looking at youngsters.
BTW - 19 of the 36 games remaining are home games.
Bottom line - the AL West is won... it's time now to focus on home field advantage, getting healthy, and figuring out the best 9 players to field for game 1.
I know this won't happen, but if CJ keeps performing like he has recently, I would take a long look at him starting game 1. I know CJ is not the greatest person in the world in dealing with stressful situations, etc... but imagine him going out in game 1 and WINNING... and then game 2 we pitch Lee... WOW, it would definitely make things interesting.
Gonna be tough, though, Pablo, sinced we'll be up against either TB or NYY. Not that they don't have a chance - but it's going to be a very hard series to win without the home field.
The playoffs are going to be extremely difficult this season for the AL but first let me eplain why the number dont match too ths team being better than last years...EXPERIENCE and the rest of the league is playing better than most years. The AL east is always a close one but the central is heatiung up as well. Enough that Johnny Damon turned DOWN the RED SOX to stay in the race... But this team is way more experienced and the rotation shows it more so than the lineup. We are doing what is needed right now to win with not breaking our backs to do so. Everything looks effortless to save the energy for the playoff run. Ive said it all year long and esp through our latest "drought", the team who gets hot last in the regular season will win the ALCS. Plain and simple... Get hot in the middle of Sept (right around the time that Ian and Nelly should be hitting full stride) and that momentum will be hard to stop... I can tell you one thing... EVERYONE in baseball is scared of the Rangers and to me thats a good feeling!
sure Whitt's analysis might be unscientific to some, but to the plain eye the Rangers are doing just a little better this season than last. The A's are doing much worse and so are the M's. The A's also had the best record in the league after the AS last season.
yes- a downtown Dallas ballpark would be huge. Im glad JerryWorld isnt here b/c it hols 8 games per yr and a couple concerts. Way too much money and space for Jerry's ego to be in our town.
Mansfield? HEB? who cares? the largest suburban communities like Plano, Frisco, McKinney, Allen, Mesquite are all too far away from Arlington. a downtown dallas stadium would attract these families much more often.
RBiA currently relies on mid cities folks who are close. FW folks who care just enough to put up w/ the drive and Dallas folks who care just enough to put up w/ the drive. there are not many REAL fans out there.
@ Justin ... think you have it right. The ALE and ALC races though force those teams to be extra focused all the time.
TEX must insert itself psychologically in the middle of a larger 14 team race to the top and look at the rest of the season like that.
TEX should be able to play looser than any of its competors every single night ... including NYY when they come to town. TEX if in #2 spot is coming ... and they know it based on strength (or weakness) of schedule.
Thought your most accurate point is about being scared. They all know that TEX while it had issues in TPA ... that they are operating without Kinsler and Cruz ... and TEX is still tinkering with the SP rotation. That's scary.
About 2 - 3 weeks ago on MLB Tonight Harold Reynolds in talking about potential matchups made the point that NYY better hope they draw the ALC winner in the ALDS ... because NYY does not match up well at all against TEX either in TEX or at home. He said it ... very directly. More than once.
I think Texas has 2 things going for it as far as the playoffs... Cliff Lee and Vlad Guerrero. Those 2 guys have been there and can help calm the others down.
Regarding Texas being "scary" to other teams, I think so, but they need the following to happen to reach their full potential "scariness":
1. Vlad heat up again
2. Kinsler and Cruz to get back in the lineup & healthy
3. They need the stud Rich Harden to appear and the 6 walks in 5 innings Rich Harden to go away.
If there aren't any other injuries and those 3 things happen, I suspect they can compete with any team in a short series.
I think that Jon has it right. with the Economic Downturn in our country, that's not going to get better for a long time, the cities are suffering with their budgets as much or more than any one. i think the day of the subsidized ball parks is over! i have never been a pessimist, but our country has never faced such an unqualified bunch of people trying to right the ship by having two people at the wheel steering the opposite directions. i don't see anew park in the rangers future for a long time.
@ Bill M ... then we definitely need to real quick get ARRA amended to assign make it $2.5B for TEX new ball park, parking towers, light rail connectors, and Interstate access ramps. They got money left ... it will create jobs ... and it will have a roof that opens. Like Jerry's. We're paying for it anyway. Might as well be something we want rather than some dumb road work.
Went to the game Tuesday night and it only took me 25 minutes to get home in Plano. Took I-30 to 161 North which turns into the Bush. Many don't know that it goes almost all the way to I30 now. Awesome.
While I think a downtown Dallas stadium would be cool, I can't say it is much easier to get there any more.
If the Rangers have the second best record among the division winners they have the home field advantage, probably against the Yankees at this point.
Honestly, I think the Rangers can beat the Yankees. I'd certainly rather face them than the Rays.
Here is a real question. Look at Boston. While not a total collaspe I think you can say they are a bit long in the tooth. Are they a year in front of the Yankees?
So what if the Rangers are basically the same team as last year and the division has gotten worse? Are the Angels or Seattle going to fix it all in one off season? Are the A's going to sign enough players who can score some runs to make a difference?
DOn't forget the Yankees get to play Baltimore lots and lots and they can't beat anyone but the Rangers.
BTW the magic number is 94 not 92. No team that has ever won 94 games jhas ever missed the playoffs.
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