Rich Harden's Wild Ride (Part V)
"Turn that frown upside-down now, Rich."In the pantheon of bizarre-to-the-core Rangers games played over the years, last night's Minnesota-at-Texas tilt deserves a special place near the top. The Rangers lost what would have been their first no-hitter of any kind since Kenny Rogers' 1994 perfecto (and first combined no-hitter in franchise history), but several things of even greater rarity than a conventional nine-inning no-hitter transpired during Rich Harden's stunning (and abortive) no-hit bid, and they're not necessarily what you think they are, either.
For starters, Harden -- who strung together 6.2 no-hit frames while striking out six but, in his typically walk-inclined fashion, also handing out five free passes -- is categorically not the worst pitcher to ever mount a legitimate no-hit effort, but I'm going to wager that the list of pitchers who were in the midst of a replacement-level campaign at the time of their accomplishment (like Harden) is very, very small; about the only example I could dig up was former Cardinals right-hander Jose Jimenez, who recorded a no-hitter at Arizona on June 25th, 1999 after entering that evening's start with a 6.69 ERA, but his fielding-independent ERA at the time (4.40 FIP) was better than the league average and not remotely similar to to that of Harden's (6.47 FIP) going into last night.
[Before taking this any further, allow me to fly off on a quick tangent: How on earth was the Pitch f/x pitch-tracking system not working at the Ballpark last night? I've always wondered about the perfect storm of technical difficulties that knocks it out of commission, but it's doubly frustrating now; even if Harden and Co. had managed to nail down the complete no-hitter, there would be no way to statistically dissect their efforts on a micro pitch-by-pitch level, because the system was, for whatever reason, non-functional last night. Hell, there could have been a perfect game and we would have no such record of it. Very frustrating.]
Even more bizarre, however, were several other aspects of Harden's wild night; at 4.83 pitches per batter faced (111 pitches to 23 batters), Harden was several degrees more inefficient than any other pitcher to log at least 6.2 no-hit innings in a single start during the pitch count era (1988-present); the next closest are Jon Lester (05/19/08) and Nolan Ryan (06/11/90), both of whom used 4.48 pitches per batter faced in their respective no-hitters. And it turns out that sub-nine-inning no-hit starts are even more rare than conventional no-hitters themselves; only 16 other pitchers in major league history have logged at least 6.2 no-hit innings in a single start while failing to reach nine full innings.
David Cone posted one such start in September 1996, shortly before gifting the Rangers their first and only post-season victory to date: a seven-inning no-hit effort against the Athletics in which he threw just 85 pitches. It turns out that the reason for his seemingly premature departure was, as I suspected, health-related -- Cone had undergone shoulder surgery less than four months earlier to remove an aneurysm from beneath his right armpit, and then-Yankees manager Joe Torre adhered to his pre-game pledge to limit Cone to 100 pitches at most. Oddly, closer Mariano Rivera fell two outs short of completing what would have been a combined no-hitter when he yielded a one-out single in the ninth inning. Feeling an odd sense of deja vu, yet?
If not, here's the point of similarity: Neftali Feliz also blew his shot at completing a combined no-hitter with just two outs left, and also on a single, albeit one of the rocket line drive variety. No regrets; Joe Mauer's an incredible hitter, and it didn't remotely resemble a cheap hit. And no regrets about Harden's early exit, either. Sure, he might have pulled it off if he had been allotted 140-145 pitches, but that's just crossing into the realm of the irresponsible, and he was "effectively wild" -- the Twins were getting runners on base, and the score was close enough that it just didn't make sense to push Harden beyond his limits (and conceivably risk the lead) with a rested bullpen standing by.
I'm not going to call this a spectacular start from Harden, because the simple fact of the matter is that it wasn't; he did a good job of inducing weak contact on the whole, but five walks per seven innings will kill him sooner rather than later. It was, however, clearly enough to buy him at least 1-2 more starts, and speaking as someone who already had Harden's bags packed and halfway out the door about 12 hours ago, it's apparent now more than ever that nothing is ever a certainty in baseball. And that's just one of the many wonderful things about baseball that keeps bringing us back.
Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (43)
Not a spectacular start but it was a big improvement. Harden sat 92-93 on the FB and commanded his change reasonably well. The Ks were not flukes -- he struck out some very good hitters, many on fastballs. For the most part contact was weak. Harden certainly had more command than any other start in recent memory.
He is still not good enough to factor into the playoff rotation. And given the number of starts left in the season, there is probably nothing he can do short of a miracle to inject himself into the playoff rotation. The best value we can probably get from him at this point is another arm to eat up some innings in the final weeks so we can give Lee-Lewis-Wilson-Hunter some additional days rest so they are primed for the playoffs.
well said TS...still won't ever coming close to being considered for the playoff rotation. Is there some sort of system where Lee, Lewis, and Wilson take turns skipping a start and letting Harden stand in for them in that start? unconventional, but effective? This would help keep our playoff rotation fresh and would give Harden a chance to prove that he might have value as a long reliever in the playoffs/2011. go rangers
2 things. First, are you kidding me?! The whole Rich Harden thing is the weirdest story in baseball this year. This just makes it more so. Second, it's my fault that the not hit bid was broken up. I had a softball game and missed the first 8 and 1/3 innings. As soon as I turned it on, I mean, literally the first pitch, Mauer crushed that ball up the middle. Sorry guys!
Why release Harden this late in the season with th eroster expansion only days away?
With a little (OK a lot) of luck maybe he can improve to the point where he will be a Type B FA and net something back to the Rangers in the 2011 draft.
The worst case scenario happened last night. Now this charade will continue for a couple more starts. Holland should be getting these starts.
Wouldn't we have to offer Harden arbitration, and then Harden would have to refuse, to receive compensation in the form of a draft pick? No point in wasting our time... there is NO way he is offered arbitration! And if we were dumb enough to offer arbitration, Harden wouldn't take very long to accept it.
Anyone else worried about Feliz and his ability to get outs? Last night aside (it was Joe Mauer and a potent Twins lineup, afterall), he is just so inconsistant with his control and too dependent on the high heat (a pitch that can be crushed). Last night was an example of when we really needed him to come through, and he kinda did and kinda didn't. If that's a meaningful post season game, then I am pacing around my house scared to death when Nefi comes in!
This just in from Upsidedownassbackwardsville.....Cliff Lee hittable, Rich Harden unhittable, Rangers in first place in August. Full story at 5.
The stadium gun wasn't working last night and this in part caused the issue. Chuck emailed someone at LSB. Also why the pitch speeds were high--new temporary gun.
@ Khaos
Without even looking at any numbers, I will go out on a limb and say that 98 mph fastballs are missed 89% more than they are "crushed". Relax. He's a rookie and he is doing fine.
@WSGJ, you are right about getting compensation for Harden, but even before we worry about offering him arbitration he has to be at least a type B free agent, and that ain't happening.
Surprised that Rangers sent Holland down. Wonder if the Rangers have lost confidence in Derek.
Harden does not seem be a consistent answer.
I am honestly surprised about how after going 7 innings of no hit ball with 6 strike outs, people are complaining that Holland didn't pitch. Does no one remember Harden pre 2010? The guy has the best pedigree on the rangers roster, Lee aside. It's actually comical to watch people on here act like this is John Koronka we keep running out there. Harden just pitched 7 innings of No hit ball! This is the Harden we've been hoping for all year. What if, what if, he is finally putting it together? You'd rather run Tommy "Big game against bad teams but horrible against decent hitting teams" Hunter out there in a playoff game than take your chances with one of the highest ceiling pitchers who has done it in baseball? Come on...Sure, he's been terrible this year, but at some point you have to look at his historic second half stats and factor that into it. Surely that means as much as a pitcher (holland) who has done it in AA and had 3 great starts in the Majors. (and I like Holland)
I've got to agree with aggiecurt. YOu people wanted 4 leaf clovers, and now that you've found one, you act like someone planted it for you.
I've got to mostly agree with Aggie on this one. Let's not complain about the pitcher that just threw a no-hitter for almost seven innings. At least until his next start.
aggiecurt05: I'm not disagreeing with you. I just want to point out that most people who think Harden won't sniff the playoff rotation most likely believe that Hunter won't be in the rotation either. With the quality that Lee, Lewis, and Wilson have shown, the Rangers would likely go with a three man rotation pitching Lee in games 1, 4, and 7 of a seven game series.
He bought himself another start, but my hopes for Harden are no higher today than before yesterday's games. Anything we get from him is a bonus.
To Khaos above, I wish all our pitchers would struggle to a 3.50ERA, 3.31 FIP, 9.5 K/9, and I wish they all had horrible control that led to walking 2.67 batters per 9, and ranked near the top in pitch value for both fastballs and curves. At age 22. Yeah, Feliz is just terrible.
In the playoffs, I'd be nervous in the 9th no matter who is pitching.
I guess just watching the results on the field wasnt good enough. The dude didn't give up a hit or a run... and you say this was not a spectacular start? Can't get much better if you ask me. Sure maybe he wasn't Cliff Lee crisp. But hell.. he isn't Cliff Lee. I enjoy this site.. but damn.. watch the game on the field.
Jon/WSGJ/geo: Concerning the whole Harden, Type B FA/arbitration status, I've got a few thoughts/points. Rich Harden currently sits as the highest scoring SP to have no compensation. Liriano is the lowest scoring pitcher to have a type B ranking. Harden has been dropping his score this season while Liriano has been soaring. Harden would have to out-perform Liriano by about 2% for the rest of the season in order to attain type B FA status. That's not completely impossible, but I don't really see it happening. I’d say it’s a safe to assume that the Rangers won’t receive a draft pick if Harden leaves and signs elsewhere.
Just for the fun of it though, let’s assume that Harden pitches fairly well for the rest of the season and Liriano’s season goes into the crapper, giving Rich that type B compensation status. I doubt it would be that dangerous to offer him arbitration. He’ll probably get another short deal like this year’s on the open market but might only get 5-6 million in arbitration; I’m fairly confident he would decline arbitration. It’s also not like other teams would have any reason not to sign him because of his type B status; they wouldn’t have to give up any of their own picks.
@Khaos What you said doesn't really work. Neftali, being a closer, needs to use his main/best pitch pretty much like 80-90% of the time. That happens to be his fastball, which can range from 96-99 mph on average, and has a WICKED break to the right. Whenever he has complete control over that pitch, he dominates (as shown against the last 3 Baltimore Orioles batters two nights ago).
So was Edwin Jacksons no hitter better than Matt Garzas or Ubaldo Jimenez's? I don't think so. There are levels of greatness you know... just like Joey being a Star.
@ Dave H
Why are you confident he would decline arbitration? There is no way somebody else is going to give him a $5-6 million contract this off season. If he is offered arbitration he will hurt himself by accepting it so fast.
Harden was definitely a "Two Pack" pitcher by the old O's manager, Earl Weaver standards. Earl used to stand back in the tunnel and smoke during nervous stages of the game. Now, who else does that? Harden got us there and it doesn't much matter how pretty it was. It is what it is and that ain't pretty. I am still hoping for him being Post Season ready to rumble. You start looking at who we have coming back from injury and I'm thinking we are ready. The Rangers have done the Post ASG slide. They have fallen victim of the September swoon. They have some guys who have been there before and eventhough they are not the stars of today they at least can show the stars how to act as champions w/o folding. Play-off time is when the cream comes to the top. I am worried more about Lewis. WHY? Because he is pitching tonight. This is the SWING game of this series.
@WSGJ: Keep in mind that I said this in a hypothetical situation in which Harden actually performs better than Liriano for the rest of the season and actually attains Type B status. In that situation, I think he would decline arbitration. If he doesn't pitch well and receive some free agent compensation or is pretty bad while Liriano has a historically bad stretch to end the season, then there's no way the Rangers (or anyone in their right mind) would offer him arbitration. I'll still maintain that if he pitches well enough to be a type B free agent, he's going to decline arbitration; I just think there's about a 0.02% chance that he actually pitches that well.
Daqve H & WSGJ -
"With a little (OK a lot) of luck maybe he can improve ............"
Just wanted to be clear.
Ain't agonna happen, but one can always hope and with the expanded roster coming up sonn what is there to lose?
Per LSB:
“The Rangers' financials are the latest to hit the interwebs, and they include nifty downloadable Excel spreadsheets of the financial data, in case anyone wants to drill down and examine more closely the balance sheets, income statements, and the like.”
MLB Confidential, Part 3: Texas Rangers
http://m.deadspin.com/5619951/
Note on the financing activities section of their cash flow statement they drew down on the line of credit to pay the ownership a distribution. Hicks was bailing out back in 2009. What a lying, sorry sack of ……………………..
Note on the
Net borrowing on lines of credit, net 17,300
Capital contributions/distributions (17,599)
@ Jon
You just made me relieve my college Accounting I nightmare... D for Degree.
*relive
@Jon,
Isn't it time we move on?
@A Stephens
"Isn't it time we move on?"
Of course! However, as a CFO and a CPA I do find it interesting. To some of us numbers tell very interesting stories. They show the truth (and expose liars). By looking at trends and continuing operations the financials also give indications for what the Texas Rangers payroll could be under the new ownership.
Besides I can enjoy loving my Texas Rangers and hating BMFF sr. Kinda like a double scoop ice cream cone.
@ WSGJ
"You just made me relieve my college Accounting I nightmare... D for Degree."
Sorry. I taught night school for a little over a decade part-time. To bad you couldn't have had my class. It was brutal, but I made it interesting and real world. Also, no one who stuck it out ever made less then a legitimate C.
@Jon: If you do have the time to look over all of the numbers and actually make some sort of intelligible analysis, please post something in the forum about it. I'd like some better insight. I've downloaded the documents myself and intend to go through them, but I really have no clue what I'm doing.
@Dave H
I need to get back to work, but see Lone Star Baseball's link (and comments)
Maury Brown takes a closer look at the leaked Rangers financials
CURTAGGIE05 I TEND TO AGREE WITH YOU. I'M AN AGGIE MYSELF AND THEREFORE WE PROBABLY WOULD TEND TO THINK ALONG THE SAME LINES AFTER SO MANY FAILURES ON THE FOOTBALL FIELD. ALL TEAMS GET BREAKS GOOD AND BAD AND WHEN YOU GET SOME GOOD BREAKS YOU ARE THANKFUL FOR THEM AND CONTINUE ON DOWN THE ROAD. CERTAINLY ABILITY IS A MAIN INGREDIENT FOR SUCCESS, BUT MORE THAN ONCE WE HAVE ALL SEEN THE INFERIOR TEAM WIN A PLAYOFF SERIES OR EVEN THE WORLD SERIES. BE THANKFUL FOR WHAT WE HAVE AND IT'S ONLY GOING TO GET BETTER.
Anyone else hear about Scott Van Pelt saying Rich Harden should be our #2 post-season starter?
**facepalm**
CAN WE DO WITHOUT THE CAPS LOCK? Just hit the damn button before you start typing and make it go away. Its ridiculous.
What I don't get about Harden is that if you look at his career numbers, he has posted season WHIP of below .135 six out of eight years. So this crap he's giving us this year (1.58) is not exactly the Harden brand.
Is he hurt?
Sorry for being late to the conversation ... but isn't Harden going into his option year? His contract with TEX is a mutual $11mil option for 2011 with a $1mil club buyout. Right?
Where is there an opportunity for arbitration if TEX exercises their option for $1mil to let him go?
@windingmywatch: if a team declines the option and pays the buyout, the player becomes like any other free agent. The team can offer that player arbitration or non-tender him.
7 fly balls (one that went 400 feet), 5 walks, 6 strikeouts. 6.2 IP. A 5.16 xFIP game in a 5.99 xFIP season.
He's just not very good. With any normal regression, he will give up a bunch of runs in his next outing if he has the same fly ball and walk rates.
@Jon,
Apologies. As I'm purposely avoiding news overload, I was unaware of the scope of this story. Thought it was just another rant on Hick's finances. Much larger than that though so all's fair I guess, although as a proponent of privacy it's a bit disturbing in my view.
@Dave H. Thanks for the answer. Thought that was it.
In my book $1mil is roughly $10mil less than $11mil and is equal to about 3 times CJ Wilson's 2010 contract.
I'm figuring if you didn't like what you got for $6.5mil in 2010 ... then you would REALLY not like paying $11mil for the same lack of confidence you would have in 2011.
Sure am glad there is a buy out provision ... and even gladder that its not 2011 when he tanks after you found you didn't have enough money to pay for the raise CJ wants and he signs elsewhere.
Any reason for the Rangers to pick up Manny?
Wood1378: I think anyone in contention could use Manny in their lineup: however, it seems unlikely that he will slide past the White Sox.