Play It One More Time, Julio
"Runs like Carl Crawford, hits like Neifi Perez."Every now and then, I'll start researching something for the express purpose of converting it into the focal point of a morning article, and during that process something of even greater interest will end up catching my eye, and before I know it 40-60 minutes have elapsed and I've deviated completely from my original plan. As such, my planned discussion of the Rangers' 2011 payroll situation has temporarily been shunted to the back burner in order to open room on the slate for one of my favorite topics: the center field situation.
About three months ago, Julio Borbon found himself mired in funk of all funks. There were few line drives to be had and even fewer walks, with the end result being an historically terrible offensive pace from a major league center fielder. That, fortunately, is no longer the case, but with him today sitting at .266/.305/.345 (.285 wOBA), we can't exactly pretend that his age-24 season has been one earmarked by great progress; things became so bad that he was basically relegated to fourth-outfielder duties during the first few weeks of August, an arrangement which would have likely remained in place if not for Nelson Cruz's ill-timed hamstring flare-up and the lack of any better active-roster outfield options.
Borbon, to his credit, did secure a 2-for-3, one-walk performance in yesterday's series finale against the Orioles, but let's face facts -- if/when Cruz returns, Borbon will again be superseded in playing time by every other active-roster outfielder, and probably isn't going to be relied upon very heavily in a post-season series beyond the duties of a pinch-runner/late-inning defensive replacement. And the problem is that it's difficult to see how a player whose stock has eroded so severely in the span of 4-5 months is going to go into next season as the overwhelming favorite to nail down the vast majority of the playing time in center field.
At this point, I would guess that next year's median projections for Borbon will probably going to look something like .280/.320/.380; extrapolated over 600 plate appearances with the built-in assumption that he saves you in the vicinity of 5-10 runs defensively per season, you're looking at somebody who's worth around 2.0-2.2 wins above replacement on a full-time basis. That's league-average production at a league-minimum price, something you look to exploit as long as you possibly can, but there are a few issues here: (a) as a guy who's battled some huge plate-discipline demons this year and has limited upside to begin with, I'm concerned about the chances for recurrence of an awful season like this, and (b) the Rangers are now clearly in a position where they're going to have to pony up some cash/assets for a solid 2011 backup plan.
Josh Hamilton qualifies to play that part again (in theory, at least), but he's not somebody you should reasonably expect to log more than 15-20 games in center field per season going forward; he's about to enter his age-3X years, will be handsomely compensated by some means after this year's MVP-caliber campaign, and had already been administered two cortisone shots for his aching knees before the regular season's two-thirds mark. More than anything else, that's the kind of player you strive to protect physically. And neither Nelson Cruz nor David Murphy are options there, so there's little in the way of an internal hedge against Borbon falling off a cliff again.
I don't want to proclaim that I'm a total non-believer in Borbon, because that's not the case at all. A good-fielding, cost-controlled center fielder with a decidedly mediocre bat does give you something, but it's definitely not a "franchise center fielder"-type solution so much as it is something that you look to improve upon if the right opportunity presents itself ... and maybe that's a kink in my own team-evaluating abilities. Maybe I need to learn how to be satisfied with every position not being solidified multiple years into the future and scale back my obsession with long-term solutions. After a season like this one from Borbon, however, you can hardly begrudge anyone for wondering how this drama's going to end up playing out.
Analysis, The Season
Reader Comments (30)
Here's what the playoff contenders are rolling out in CF right now:
Texas (Borbon): .266 .303 .345 .647
Rays (Upton): .237 .325 .411 .735
Twins (Span): .269 .337 .354 .691
Yankees (Granderson): .246 .316 .436 .752
Braves (Ankiel): .240 .314 .390 .704
Reds (Stubbs): .236 .301 .402 .702
Padres (Gwynn): .212 .313 .299 .611
Phillies (Victorino): .256 .314 .441 .755
I wouldn't give up on Borbon too soon. Guys with great speed have a tremendous advantage because they have so many ways to get on base. It takes some of them a while to figure out how to take advantage of it. Remember, the guy's only been playing pro ball for a few years.
What we are learning from the 1B and C positions is the need to draft numerous quality players at all positions because despite some much potential very few come through.
Otherwise prepare to part with top pitching prospects or get hosed in FA acquiaitions that may or may not pan out.
I greatly prefer the in-house option both from a cost and a control viewpoint
In other words, let's not create the false impression that everybody else is running DiMaggio or Mays out there. Oh, and Tom Goodwin posted a .259 .324 .341 .664 slash line in 1999. Borbon is certainly not the biggest problem this club has right now.
I am with mjh and particularly the comparison to Goodwin. The major differences between Borbon and Goodwin include age (and obviously experience) and possibly intelligence. As Borbon was rather obviously being "schooled" by Washington after being picked off yesterday, I could not help but wonder how bright he is. Yesterday wasnt' the first incident of baseball stupidity from him, and quite frankly, I thought Washington might pull him right there (no alternative now however).
I find it particularly troubling that Borbon seems to be rather inept at translating his exceptional speed into being a true base-stealing threat. He was thrown out by 6 feet trying to steal second the other day in Baltimore. I also agree with Babe...Borbon seems to lack good judgment on the base paths as well. It is as if he neutralizes his own speed, which is a considerable weapon, with a complete inability to put it to use in baserunning situations. It is crucial that Borbon take advantage of opportunities to use his speed to get into scoring position when he reaches base, as the hitter that usually follows him in the lineup (Andrus) is likely to hit singles rather than extra-base hits.
I agree that not everyone can roll out a Sizemore in CF - hell, the Indians can't even roll out Sizemore anymore LOL. But low-OBP, high-K, low-power speedsters who hit .250 & play CF with a weak arm are really a dime a dozen. I think the solution for CF might be David Murphy, for the short term, at least until we can see what Engel Beltre can really do. Murphy isn't going to cover as much territory as Borbon, but he will hit better than most CF's - with power - and he has a very accurate arm.
Off subject but whatever happened to Prof. Parks minor league player scouting reports. As best I recall he has two or three to go and poof.
Someone else mentioned this on another forum, but if Lee doesn't end up a ranger, I wonder what Carl Crawford costs for us to stick in CF for the next several years. I would also look at buy low players such as Sizemore (as long as we are paying for a trending downward former superstar who is still quite young) and BJ Upton- who I understand the rangers checked into last year.
The last 2 or 3 years I felt the Rangers were one of the more efficient baserunning teams in MLB. This year I feel the opposite. How many outs have the Rangers lost on the basepaths this year via CS, PO, trying to stretch a hit into something bigger, etc.? How many outs are other teams losing this way?
I'm not worried about CF specifically next year, but I am worried about OF depth in general. With Hamilton, Cruz, and Guerrero all being at least a little bit fragile, and Borbon and Murphy having iffy bats, You'd like to see the depth addressed this offseason. Something more attractive than Endy Chavez, who also has injury/age issues.
Bad arm, little defense but the defense is improving. That arm never will. He is getting better at bunting and more patient at the plate but not much. The thing that drives me crazy with Borbon is the mental mistakes. Picked off yesterday. Stolen bases is an area that needs to be looked at. He and Andrus are tipping their intentions on the bases. Pettit needs some help with these two, et al... I think the guy is a keeper as long as a couple of these fixable problems get addressed and that speed is an asset.
24 years old is not exactly the end of the road. A couple of his bunts lately have proven especially beneficial. He has come a long ways but has a ways to go.
Does anyone think the Cubs would be willing to deal Marlon Byrd? I'd really enjoy having an everyday OF of Hamilton in left, Byrd i center, and Cruz in right. Murphy could be the 4th OF, and Borbon could get regular playing time in AAA.
@Tom b: I'll certainly agree with you about the present state of Borbon's defense and arm. However, he actually could have at least an average arm and maybe even above average. His problem with the arm is mechanical. I've seen him launch some of the weakest throws ever, sail some throws all the way into the dugout, and throw an absolute bullet. The problem isn't the arm, it's how he uses it. He was working on improving it during spring training and was inconsistent but showed promise. As soon as the games started to count he seemed to revert to his old habits which might be more comfortable and consistent, but they're consistently bad.
Basically I think if he could improve his mechanics he could have a nice solid throwing arm, and pared with his speed, could be a gold-glove caliber defender in center field. (I'm saying it's possible--not that it's likely).
I know Craig Gentry's hurt, but when he's healthy isn't he Borbon with a good arm? Plus he's a right-handed bat. Or is his bat so poor that he's not even Borbon offensively? He's put up pretty good offensive numbers the past two seasons at Frisco and Ok. City. I'm surprised he's not mentioned more. As a 26-year-old, perhaps he's just not viewed highly within the organization.
@ Jeem
Murphy would be a disaster as an everyday CF. His CF range would make us forget about Young's at third.
I'd keep Borbon, sign a RH bat who can play CF just in case. Then use our financials resources in other areas. Hopefully Borbon will shorten the slumps, refine his baserunning, and continue maturing as a major leaguer. Hopefully he'll become a quality starter we want to keep for awhile. At least he'll improve a bit and be able to hold down the fort until someone better comes along.
Borbon's greatest asset is range. We have such a potent offense when everyone's in there that his numbers are not a problem. Work on the tools he needs for where you want him in the batting order and worry about the health and contributions from others. Borbon is fine right now for his age, his experience and his price tag.
True about Murphy's range, and CF at TBIA is a chore. But I question the premise that we have such a potent offense that we can absorb the "bad" Borbon (when he's hitting he's ok, but he appears to be pretty streaky). They have lost many games this year where the pitching kept them in it, but the offense sputtered - not many games where the pitching was so bad they had no shot to claw back into it.
Who knows if they will catch a magic wave in October and do something, but at least for next year, they have pretty significant questions (on offense) at 1B, C, CF, and UT. I would imagine that the only way Vlad comes back is with an incentive-laden deal, since he has been pretty terrible since the ASB. So you can add DH to that list.
Keep Borbon. He is excellent defensively and has flashes with the bat and as one commenter mentioned, he has only been playing for a short number of years and I think he will only improve from season to season. We have needs other than center field, though I do feel more comfortable with Moreland if we can get a relaible right handed bat to go with him. Kirkman is a refreshing surprise that should really help the bull pen this fall into the playoffs. I like Molina's handling of pitchers but his lack of speed on the basepaths really is a negative for the offense. Keep Blanco until we are able to develop or trade for a sharp utility infielder. C.J. has developed into the best pitcher in the starting rotation and his future looks bright. Look forward to seeing Scheppers soon!
I agree with Jd21...Gentry seems to be, to me anyway, a smart version of Borbon with a better bat. I love his speed...just wish we could see more him.
posted on another blog...
I am very proud of the season we have had this year. we have come a long way and have a good future ahead of us.
HOWEVER, I am afraid we are not capable of playing the others contenders on a 50-50 basis. NY, Tampa and Minne, just look too strong for us (right now) we have too many weaknesses in our game. clutch hitting, baserunning, key hits, our pitching will carry us as far as they can, but we are weak at the plate against GOOD pitching.... and we are about to see some of it very soon.
BOY!! I wish I was wrong..... and hope I am.
Seriously someone thinks Gentry is a better bat then anyone? Gentry maxes out as a 5th OF being used solely as a defensive replacement, unless for some reason his bat suddenly develops in a completely unexpected way.
First of all, I wonder why no one has thought of this possibility:
Go after Carl Crawford. If you snag him, put him as the starting LF, Borbon as the starting CF, and Cruz as the starting RF. Put Josh Hamilton as the DH.
OR
Go after Carl Crawford. If you snag him, put him as the starting LF, Borbon as the starting CF, and Hamilton as the starting RF. Put Nelson Cruz as the DH.
Hamilton has gold-glove caliber defense at LF and CF, so I wonder how he'd look in RF. With Vladdy not staying around forever, Nelson Cruz or Hamilton would be a good fit as the DH, considering how many outfielders we have. You want Hamilton playing the field because of his defense, which is why I think Cruz at the DH would be better.
You could also put Crawford at LF, Hamilton at CF, Cruz at RF, and Borbon at DH. However, this would probably be near the bottom of my list, considering you want Borbon's potential, speed, and glove in the field and to limit Hamilton's use in CF because of injury concerns with his knees.
I never really bought into the whole "historically bad offensive centerfielder" premise that was thrown out there in May. Truth is Borbon had a terrible April. But when the club surged in June, he hit .356 and his OBP was .400. No one will ever confuse him with Mickey Mantle and I agree his lack of natural base running instincts offset his speed. But he is far from the biggest problem this club has. The trouble is when Cruz & Kinsler go on the DL they become very left-handed hittng and struggle against any left-handed pitcher the other team runs out there.
I say let the kid play, correct his mistakes and see if he develops. If not, Engel Beltre will probably push him for his spot in 2012.
If you were older, Joey, you could have worked in a "Me and Julio Down by the Schoolyard" reference...
I'm sure he would have, Jeem, but it's against the law.
The more he plays the better he will get. Winter ball again would benefit him.
This is one of those things where, there's really nothing to see here.
Much, much, too early to fret over Borbon.
LOL Jobert
We get it... Joey doesn't like Borbon.
I dunno, maybe it was the 148th consecutive negative post on the kid that gave it away.