Saturday Morning Rangers Notes: If This World Were Mine
C.J. Wilson delivers a first-inning pitch in Baltimore on Friday, August 20th.Because the sun always seems to shine a little bit brighter after a rousing Rangers win ... and, for that matter, after listening to the 13th weekly installment of the Goldstein n' Parks podcast extravaganza:
● Here's a fun little morning-after game for you to play: Punch up this video of C.J. Wilson's superb 8.2-inning, 12-strikeout performance last night -- which was far and away the best start of his major league career to date, with a superb game score of 89 -- and count how many times he put the decisive strikeout pitch right on Taylor Teagarden's glove. If that's not Cliff Lee-esque command of the strike zone, it's pretty damn close, and looking a little closer at the statistical minutia, it's apparent that his start was similar to those of Cliff Lee in more ways than one: whenever Wilson fell behind in the count to any respective Orioles hitter, his next pitch was a strike an astonishing 85 percent of the time, well above the league-average 66 percent rate.
About six months ago, I posited that Wilson might only be good for about 120-130 innings of No. 2 starter-caliber pitching this season. In hindsight, that was significantly underselling him, as he's now logged 158 high-quality innings (3.65 FIP) and, if anything, seems to be growing sharper after some early-August turmoil, posting a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 20-to-2 in his last two starts alone. I'm not sure whether there's abundant predictive value in his recent performance, as we're still not sure how he's going to perform down the stretch, but between his great conditioning and inclination to pitch in the heat and realization that he can't pitch at maximum intensity, Wilson may actually represent the perfect storm in terms of being able to make a seamless bullpen-to-rotation transition.
● Of the meager run support that the Rangers' offense did conjure up for Wilson (a whopping two runs), Mitch Moreland singlehandedly furnished half of it, launching a second-inning Jake Arrieta fastball -- a 95 mph heater outside the strike zone, no less -- the opposite way and just above and beyond the 333-foot marker near the left field foul pole. An identical blast at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington might not have even cleared its 14-foot-high left field wall, but the glimmer of opposite-field power from Moreland was a rather welcome sight nevertheless, as it's been in particularly short supply at first base since Chris Davis's major league career stalled out along a desolate Texas farm-to-market road. Or something. I hope you enjoyed that last metaphor.
After gaining something of a reputation as a power hitter to all fields during his sparkling 2008 run (and yes, the spray charts affirm that the results matched the perception), Davis's opposite-field power output collapsed in 2009, which is hardly the main reason why his season ended up going to hell but still proved noticeable all the same. I wouldn't expect Moreland's overall power output to rival that of Davis, but it makes some sense on an intuitive level that his advanced batting eye and short, quick swing path to the ball would enable him to roll with some outside pitches and drive them the opposite way with authority. It's still too soon to say exactly what Moreland's going to be in the long-term scheme of things, but already there are some promising indications that he's a more complete package as a hitter than Davis ever was.
● From the "surprise, surprise" department comes word that the Rangers are interested in picking up exiled Rockies outfielder Brad Hawpe, a Metroplex native (of course!) and presumed all-around nice guy ... but also a guy with one of the absolute worst defensive track records in baseball and, as far as this season is concerned, a very replaceable bat. It turns out that hitting .255/.343/.432 (.336 wOBA) while playing half your games in the majors' most hitter-friendly environment and logging all your playing time at power-producing defensive positions actually doesn't ingratiate you with your employer. Colorado, per reports, "aren't seeking much in exchange" for Hawpe. What a shock.
The thing about Hawpe is that, yeah, maybe he does a reasonably okay job of bridging the gap between now and whenever Nelson Cruz returns, but it only makes real sense if the Rangers want to roll with a Murphy-Hamilton-Hawpe defensive alignment and keep Borbon warming the bench. In that case, however, Hawpe is likely hemorrhaging runs defensively at a similar rate as he's producing them offensively, and my uneasiness about running with Hamilton in center field remains present. Maybe Hawpe has something left in the tank, but there have been a few unsettling shifts in his plate discipline profile this season (he's swinging quite a bit more at out-of-zone pitches), and there's nothing very enthralling about the Hawpe-to-Texas idea if he ends up costing Texas $1-2 million and a mid-level prospect. The Rockies aren't cutting him loose just for the fun of it.
Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (15)
I think CJ showed us yesterday that he won't end up like Feldman.
The guy is a managers and coaches dream. Comes in looking to learn and improve constantly. Ultimately just wanting to win.
The pitching stories this year for this club are just amazing and unbelievable.
Joey, should the rangers offer CJ a new contract. How much do you think they would offer and what do you feel would be a reasonable offer?
I think CJ was superb last evening in Balt. I'm still betting the farm that Lee is CJs Energizer Bunny and that is like getting two for the price of....Many. With Lee, Lewis & Wilson going to the mound I'm betting on these guys. That if I was a betting man. I'm a believer in Ron Washington but his learning curve is going to have to flatten out or he is going to run the Rangers into a Post season ditch. there have been too many strange faces added into this locker room for it to assimilate by Oct. This Farm is so deep they could just keep loading and do as well as they hasve done. Moreland has equaled the benefit of Rent-a-Wrecks. Arias and others are just polishing pine material. Ron's gut is going to be the end of a veery good opportunity. I think managing turns in the last 50 games to a different animal than the first 100 games. Pull lee, et all when the first sign of fatigue appears on the horizon. Don't milk the arm.
A case could be made for letting Lee go, picking up the 2 picks, and extending Wilson now in the hopes of getting a Lee clone for the next 5 years or so. Now a clone is not as good as the original of course, but if you could get Lee lite performance at likely less than half the cost it would appear to be a good value. A case could be made, is all I'm sayin.
Moreland's short swing path is where Teagarden's needs to be.
Joey:
What if the Rangers bring in Hawpe to give Guerrero some down time from the DH spot and the occasional turn at RF? Guerrero looks like he's either in an extended funk or is just plain tired, and Hawpe wouldn't be exposed for the defensive liability he is. Though Guerrero is batting .263 in his last 10 games, he has 1 double with no homeruns and 1 RBI.
Bringing in Hawpe is a big mistake. the Rangers already have too many outfielders and a DH that can neither hit or play in the field anymore.
I'm with BRUCE.....
They paid a real price to get Cantu for 1B, 3B and DH duty. He has been a legit MLB hitter and needs to get it together & contribute offensively. Both he and Guzman have been big disappointments.
Forget about these rejects from losing teams. A bigger improvement will come when they stop taking the bats out of our hitters hands by running the bases at a Little League level.
I still maintain that being on a regular, 5-day schedule mitigates the increase in innings somewhat going from reliever to starter. Early in the season I was a bit worried about the number of pitches and high stress innings being thrown by both Lewis and Wilson. But as the team picked up steam in May and June, and the bullpen solidified, that eased off a bit, and the Rangers haven't overburdened their starters.
My main worry now is next year. If the Rangers go deep into the playoffs, Lewis and Wilson will be way, way into uncharted territory. A good problem to have, no doubt.
Ah, the manic-depressive nature of a 162 game season. Glad to see the sun shining brightly in your world today! Sunday?
Michael Kirkman is going to dominate.
End the parade of weak hitting spares who are defensively challenged.
Look forward to seeing Kirkman go. May make us forget all about Derek Holland.
Before any trades 50-35, after 18-19. Maybe there is something to that chemistry stuff.
No more please!
Forget about these rejects from losing teams. A bigger improvement will come when they stop taking the bats out of our hitters hands by running the bases at a Little League level.
I don't suppose your opinion could be swayed if one were to, say, show you a baserunning value chart that actually places the Rangers among the top five baserunning teams in the league? This meme that the Rangers are terrible at running the bases this season needs to die. They certainly have room to get better in that regard (particularly on the basestealing side of things, and particularly where Vlad is concerned), but people are solely taking into account the outs made -- which are more memorable -- and ignoring the extra bases gained. The eye test is flawed here.
Before any trades 50-35, after 18-19. Maybe there is something to that chemistry stuff.
Or it could be all of the injuries. I'm not going to buy into the notion that Guzman/Cantu/Molina/etc. are dragging down the clubhouse chemistry and, by virtue of that, actually hurting their teammates' performance on some visceral level. That just doesn't make any sense to me.
Most outstanding read JM.