Getting Defensive
Andres Blanco fields a wild throw from Taylor Teagarden on Wednesday, August 18th.It’s hard to imagine that anyone watching the Rangers drop a 4-0 decision to the Orioles last night wouldn’t lay the blame for the loss on two prime offenders:
(1) The Texas offense
(2) The Texas defense
The first was a team-wide affair. The Rangers lineup, enervated by injuries to Ian Kinsler and Nelson Cruz, looked completely demoralized. Vladimir Guerrero’s emergence from his horrendous summer slump was the biggest eye-opener amid Texas’ mainly sluggish at-bats. (Andrés Blanco’s would-be triple in the top of seventh was the only other real bright spot. Maybe a better call on the play by third-base umpire Manny Gonzalez would’ve roused the Texas bats to action. Maybe not.)
The second, though, fell -- literally -- at the feet of right-fielder Brandon Boggs. Boggs’ horrendous misplay of Baltimore second baseman Brian Roberts’ two-out fly ball in the bottom of the seventh allowed two runs to score, and prevented starter Colby Lewis from escaping his second jam of the game with only one run allowed.
Boggs’ blunder opens the door for more thinking about the role of luck, in the week-long wake of our look at how box scores and broadcasts can lie to us about pitching performances. That August 12 piece put Cliff Lee’s recent performance against the Yankees under the microscope. As luck would have it, in Lee’s next start, despite dominating the Rays for 7 innings, he allowed four runs to score in the home half of the eighth, leading to a 6-4 loss.
Tuesday, over at FanGraphs, Jack Moore analyzed Lee’s results. As I dig into that analysis, I want to give Moore credit: in analyzing the seven-batter sequence in which the four eighth-inning runs were sandwiched, he explicitly notes,
Naturally, poor luck is involved ... The sequence is clearly a case where the mantra of “process over results” shines through, as any claim that Lee’s 10 strikeout, one walk start was anything short of masterful would be blind to the mitigating factors surrounding his pitching. He couldn’t control Upton’s bloop double, nor Arias’s misplay [of a fielder’s choice], nor, for the most part, the fact that grounders went to the holes instead of at fielders.
Now, based on the comments that followed the article, Moore didn’t get to watch the Rangers-Rays game that he wrote about. That’s not necessarily a big deal, but it does raise an important question: how did Moore judge what happened in that eighth inning? While categorizing B.J. Upton’s double to right as a “line drive,” Moore does allow it was more of a “bloop.” But he doesn’t mention that the only reason the “bloop” wasn’t recorded as an “out” was because Joaquin Arias (and, to a lesser degree, Brandon Boggs) completely misplayed it. Moore also doesn’t note that Jason Bartlett’s single to “shortstop,” which followed Upton’s double, would most probably have been converted to an out if Jorge Cantu had not been playing third.
Well, so? That’s bad luck, right? Why quibble?
The quibble is that although the botched play might’ve been “poor luck” for Lee, it actually reflected poor talent in the field for the Rangers. Arias and Boggs are pretty much known quantities: even in AAA the last couple seasons, they weren’t exactly stand-out talents. Both were known for their defensive prowess in yesteryears, but injuries have taken their toll, and there are now both statistical and sensory reservations about their relative strengths in the field. And Jorge Cantu’s present (and past) play at the hot corner makes Michael Young look like a Gold Glover by comparison.
Even if some of these concerns are knee-jerk responses to nerves emerging from sparse play and stats stemming from small sample sizes, there’s little doubt that Kinsler, Cruz, and even Young present superior alternatives in the defensive aspects of the game relative to the players who are manhandling their usual posts. (FanGraphs’ UZR and +/- and Baseball-Reference’s TotalZone will provide specifics on the numbers, for the statistically curious.)
And this is where things gets tricky, in terms of Tom Tango’s observation that “when you look at the won-lost records of baseball teams, 60% of that is the talent and other vagaries of the participants, and 40 percent of that is luck. Not everything is luck. But not everything is talent either.
It’s not that I don’t stand by the August 12 piece’s conclusions -- namely, that we should appreciate the randomness inherent in a game like the matchup with New York, in which normally talented players like Lee, Cruz, Francisco, Young, Feliz all failed to play up to their expected standards. But at the same time, we shouldn’t be surprised when a team featuring Arias, Boggs, Cantu, and Blanco in regular roles struggles. The team that took the field against the Orioles last night was simply not as talented as the one that racked up an 8-game lead in the AL West. Neither was the squad that player against the Rays.
That’s obvious. But why is it important?
Two reasons. First, the importance of balancing statistics with watching the game, and supporting arguments accordingly, forms a bridge of sorts to a soon-to-come piece on defense-independent pitching statistics (DIPS), batting average on balls in play (BABIP), and the performances of Rangers starters in 2010.
Second, and more immediately relevant: ascribing poor results to “poor luck” may result in the conclusion that, as Jack Moore asserts, “it’s only a matter of time before the results fall in line.” When bad luck is largely to blame, this is largely true. But the Rangers aren’t just dealing with bad luck right now (unless we shift the frame to consider the luck underlying injuries and their timing). Texas is dealing with players in key positions who simply aren’t all that good. And as good as Cliff Lee and Colby Lewis have been by contrast, the Rangers can’t expect them to overcome the sheer lack of goodness of the guys behind them. Even aces get into jams, and rely on a combination of weak contact and good defense to work out of them.
Cliff Lee, in fact, worked into a jam against the Rays even as he coaxed weak contact from Upton and Bartlett and Crawford. While luck might’ve been a part of the equation, it still looked (by numbers and by eye) an awful lot like Cliff Lee pitching the way Cliff Lee’s been pitching. The same held true for Colby Lewis last night.
It’s obvious that Lee and Lewis deserved better in their last couple outings. But it’s just as obvious that the weak-but-run-scoring hits in those two games were botched by fielders with histories of botching balls. And as long as the Rangers are forced to run this group out onto the field, we need to be very conservative about what we expect from Rangers starters. The Texas rotation has benefited richly from the largely solid defense playing behind it for much of this season -- and the “bad luck” that’s plagued Lee and now Lewis isn’t something that’s likely to normalize much until the regulars return.
Put more simply: Buckle up. The next couple weeks are probably going to be a bumpy ride.
(But keep that popcorn handy.)
Analysis, The Season
Reader Comments (36)
I'm surprised you didn't mention the gutless performances by Ron Washington and Dave Anderson when they failed to support Blanco in the argument at third. That was one of the most shocking shirks of responsibility I've ever seen from two experienced "baseball men."
I would like to go back to the euphoric feeling following the Nelson Cruz off Wakefield game-winning homer and not back to the pre-all star game sweep by the Orioles feeling... Please
Careful jd21 - any criticism of Ron Washington will get you branded a racist around this gutless, shitty place.
It never ceases to amaze me that this is what guys like Brandon Boggs do with their opportunity to play in the big leagues.
Any waiver deals we are working on to maybe bring in someone who owns a glove?
We are injury ravaged right now but why is Boggs out there? Borbon is a far superior fielder and even a better hitter. Why is he so deep in the doghouse that Wash is playing Boggs? 3 of 4 runs last nite are the result of Boggs misplay.
I had predicted this road trip to go down as 2 w and 5 l., but i may have been overly optimistic. I think they win it in September with some return to Rangers baseball. There are no easy schedules in a AL West. Not to quote Bob Seger but 'sometimes i just sit and wonder' except mauybe some heads are "Like a Rock."
When M Young stated that the Rangers "depth was being tested," he wasn't joking. The Boggs misplay elicited the same reaction from me as did the earlier Arias disaster - ugh. In a perfect world, Marlon Byrd would be your fifth outfielder, Cristian Guzman would be healthy AND helpful, and Arias and Boggs would be in their rightful place, which is NOT on this active roster. Alas, nothing is quite that perfect.
Gotta hope for at least a split now with the O's. What's that old saying? When mired in quicksand, the worst thing you can do is flail around and panic because it only makes you sink faster. The Rangers are flailing at the moment - they simply need to put together one good fundamental game, ASAP.
Unfortunately for Ranger fans hoping against hope that this team has what it takes to hold onto a 7-game lead in the worst divison in baseball, Thursday's putrid "effort'' against the second worst team in the major leagues is further proof this lead will evaporate in the next two to three weeks.
Let's be clear: Baltimore has the second worst record in baseball, but ironically, they would have the WORST record if the Rangers had beaten them as they should have before the all-star break.
Now, the Rangers, slowly losing their grip on the AL Worst lead, have to play these mighty Orioles three more times before Minnesota comes to Arlington for four games.
Add those seven games to the four in a row already choked away and you've got the probabillity of an 11-game losing streak. Presto! The Rangers will probably be in second or third place by the second week of September.
This club will then take its place alongside all those other losers who couldn't maintain what was considered a safe lead.
It's really, really embarrassing.
One more thing that chapped me last night - why not more player support when Blanco and Wigginton had their little confrontation? A couple of guys came out of the dugout, but there needed to be a stronger response. I don't want our team to be viewed as soft. Say what you will about the Cardinals and the Reds, but at least they don't hesitate when there's a perceived wrong on the field. Look, I'm not advocating anything that gets a player suspended, but Wigginton deserved a stronger response.
(And OK, Showalter actually calls that a "textbook" play? I can understand a catcher blocking the plate. But you just don't see that on the other bases...I mean, am I taking crazy pills here? If the runner easily beats the ball to the bag (like Blanco did), he is 99.9999% called safe. Showalter and Wigginton are made for each other.
I don't know exactly what Blanco said to Ty, but this exact same thing happened to me in junior college. The ump even exclaimed "he blocked your hand, he blocked your hand!" after I beat the throw by a 2 count. I just got up and smiled at the 3B and said "good job "blocking" 3B, do you plan on wearing the C equipment from now on? I won't be sliding next time."
Fortunately our P was a badass mean mother f'er and put one in his ear 2 innings later.
dub: Yes, and that's what should have happened last night. If nothing else it was a great opportunity for the team's leaders to get people fired up about something. (Have you ever seen such a dead-looking team as the Rangers last night?) Total failure last night by Washington and Anderson. Disgraceful lack of spirit.
Jake, do you understand baseball at all?
I think I'm tuning out of Rangers baseball untl September 1st. See you all then. And yes, Jake, the team will still be in first place. Its like you haven't looked at the division standings. The Angels and A's arent exactly ripping off wins.
@Jake - let's be careful with too big a knee jerk reaction. This team is playing guys that should NOT be in the bigs... plain/simple!
With that said, if the Angels catch fire at the right time, they could make a legit run at this thing. I still maintain though that this is why you have guys like Lee and CJ... to stop landslides!
@dub - LOL, I LOVE it!!!
Maybe this is Wash's time to shine. Maybe he needs to start a brawl to get his team playing hard nosed baseball again. Take a guy like Hunter and tell him to drill 1 or 2 guys in a row... just for the helluva it. He's huge, nobody's charging his mound, no way. But maybe it will light a fire under these guys that are clearly wearing down from such a long season and need a spark.
If Hammy starts floundering... and if we don't get better pitching out of our 4 and 5 SPs, we could be in for a tense September.
Hammy is the catalyst to what's become a woeful lineup... we need him to stay hot.
Stop the freaking whining. Or maybe grow the hell up and learn some baseball. Between excessively wordy articles that essentially say nothing, and posters venting over every microcosm of the natural elements of baseball itself, this place is becoming a beatdown.
Re Wiggington: that was good clean hard baseball.
Re Blanco; the rule is you don't make the 1st or last out at 3rd base. But he had a good view, and I've got no problem with him running. However, if he doesn't want the base blocked off by the fielder, then don't go in head first. If there was a dumb part on his play that was it. Go in spikes first, and Wiggington doesn't give him the knee to slide into.
Now I also don't fault Blanco for getting upset, a losing streak will do that. But Wiggington didn't do anything we wouldn't hope one of our players would do in standing up for his play and his team.
Listen, A- As bad as the Rangers have played lately, we STILL Have and 8 game division lead. The true problem is that guys who should be at Triple-A or cut are playing for out All-Stars (Kins and Cruz). Has for why Borbon didnt play last night? Simple, cuz he cant hit worth a damn aganist left-handed pitching and the starter was a lefty. What other option does Wash have? If he goes with Murphy in LF, Ham in RF and Borbon in CF, there all 3 left handed swingers. Thats 1/3 of your line-up that is lefty on lefty. Not good baseball. And the only other OF option right now is Vladdy in RF and no one wants that. The true problem with this team is A- all teams go throw slumps & injuries (better now then in a month or so) and B- The energy guys, the guys who make playing fun are on the DL. Cruz plays with a flare that gets the rest of the team excited, so does Kins, their our spark plugs and we are seeing what happens when there out.
Well said Jeremy. You can quantify it other than wins and losses, but I think Kinsler especially gets a fire under the team. We played dead for most of April without him, and now after a couple decent weeks with him out we're playing dead again. I think this time it is a cumulation of all the injuries. Hamilton probably feels he has to carry the lineup on his own.
Philly: Have you watched the Rangers lately and what is supposed to labled as "professional'' baseball? From what I've watched they have no desire, no willingness to make an effort and feel as if a 7-game lead will somehow magically stay in place regardless of the type of effort they put forth.
Losing for the fifth straight time to one of the worst teams in baseball, not to mention getting shut out, is mind bending.
And yes. I understand baseball. The Rangers, on the other hand, obviously don't.
@A Stephens: Here's my question. How often does a player slide feet first at third base on a triple? I don't see it often, if at all. Most guys are taught to slide head first on a triple, Pete Rose-style. Guys slide feet-first into second to break up a DP. Blanco just did what he would normally do. I agree with dub: If you block the plate, expect to be bowled over.
Is it time to fret yet?
@ A Stephens
You are right, it's good hard baseball, but there is nothing clean about it. I have unintentionally put my knee down in front of 3B to block a short hop and taken a cleat in the knee and the shin. It wan't very clean, if you catch my metal cleat meaning. If you intentionally "block" 3B, 2B with your knee or leg, you are playing with fire. I have a strong feeling that is what Blanco was saying to Ty, and he barked back at him.
This team needs something to light it's ass on fire, IMHO. I mostly agree with Joey, but at the same time, these are friggin MLB players. If I NEVER see Boggs in RF again, it will be too soon.
Bottom line, if you intend to impede the runner in his path to any base, you are fair game. I hope you hear the train whistle.
TO NO ONE IN PARTICULAR: THE RANGERS DID LOOK LIFELESS AND THEIR OFFENSE AND DEFENSE SHOWED IT THE WHOLE GAME. I'M ALL FOR PLAYING THE BEST DEFENDERS WE HAVE AND THAT WOULD BE BORBON IN PLACE OF BOGGS! THERE HAS TO BE SOME LEADERSHIP ON THIS TEAM TO STIR THESE GUYS UP TO GET THE JOB DONE. LAST NIGHT WAS LIKE WATCHING CROQUET.......
So, Boggs is the scorge of the rangers. I remember reading these blogs where folks viewed Cruz as the scorge of the rangers just a couple of seasons ago. Cruz porved himself during the season that Ron Washington brought him up, sat Boggs on the bench, and told Cruz that he would be given every opportunity to perform. It was a bit of a slow painful start for him. But, I'd guess that knowing that should he make a fielding error or be slow to settle offensively would not mean immediately being benched probably allowed him to focused on what he did best. We've seen him flourish. But, seasons before, he was the Boggs guy; the one that couldn't seem to put it all together. So, suddenly, Boggs seems to be in the mist of the most controversial fielding errors that are costing the rangers. And, of course, he can't hit the ball, right? Heck, they even had him throwing in the bull pen 'cause the manager was considering having him pitch an inning. I went back to the start of the 2010 season to see how many of the rangers had a slow offensive start. Interesting data. It was also interesting to note how many of the rangers were being thown under the bus due to this seasons slow offensive starts. So, I looked at Boggs' since he has been called up. Two games, is it? At triple-A, he's called upon to play all outfiled positions and managed quite well. He's never been a 300 hitter, but managed to keep respectable OP and OPS. I managed people. I recruit what I consider the best. If any one does not perform up to the potential that I know they are capable of. i start to wonder. Have I not created the porper environment for them to flourish so that i can take advantage of what they've shown elsewhere that they can do. I would not want to be Boggs' on this team. but, the rangers held on to heim two seasons too long. he deserved the opportunity back them to be released, change of scenery, to perhaps find a place where he could indeed flourish. At this point, every move he makes is accentuated. Doesn't matter that last year his 1 for 17 was commensurate with half the team looking terrible at the plate. This year, there is way too much scrutiny for him to get a realistic opportunity to settle himself and realize his potential. Am i biased. heck yeah. Most folks on these blogs are.
One of the things that really bothers me is we made all these trades to improve our club, and not one (including Lee to a certain extent) has played up to their capabilities. Lee despite pitching pretty well is 2-3 and his ERA has gone up since being a Ranger, I didn't expect much from Molina offensively but it's hid defense and the fact that teams basically run at will against us know that is most bothersome, and Cantu and Guzman have been horrible. The players on the field need to step up and do their jobs to get this ship turned around.
Joey. Has the Highest Ceiling series died?
So, as I've said for years, it's not how good you are, it's how bad you're not.
I'm also feeling a bit deflated by the trades just based on overall performance so far. Regarding Cliff Lee, the dude gets my benefit of the doubt. The heat vicimtized him one game, and Arias victimized him the other time. Aside from that and his frazzled debut (understandable under the circumstances), he's been as advertised - with pretty woeful run support, I might add.
Molina, while he has underwhelmed me at times, ended up being a necessity since Treanor ended up getting hurt. It's been the duo of Cantu and Guzman that has mostly disappointed me. I expected better. Just goes to show - you never know until you know.
@DaBlade Lee got bad run support his first few starts, but the Rangers have averaged five runs per game in his last three starts and he's only won one of those. Unfortunately for him he hasn't been able to avoid the big inning the last couple starts.
Blanco spikes up would have had a different outcome. Fair play in my book. It's not like ARod yelling "I got it" when he was on offense.
Bouncing around Harden and Dutch just isn't getting it how about giving Oliver a start?? If he fails no big deal. Team misses Vizquel who should be the utility infielder.
Put more simply: Buckle up. The next couple weeks are probably going to be a bumpy ride.
Not what I want to hear.
Joey. Has the Highest Ceiling series died?
No. Jason is on hiatus dealing with personal matters. He should return eventually and wrap up the series, but that time has not yet arrived.
Careful jd21 - any criticism of Ron Washington will get you branded a racist around this gutless, shitty place.
That -- the racist thing -- is exactly what I've been working to curtail. And if that's a veiled shot at me for attempting to cut down on all of this, there's a difference between legitimate criticism of Washington's methods and what was happening here a few weeks ago, which was people derailing virtually every post -- including those not even remotely referencing Washington, or even having to do with Washington -- with some attack on him and then a long string of back-and-forth Washington posts that completely smothered all other productive debate.
Kiss my [deleted, language].
Mason, I've been 100% in your corner. Most of this crap started over 1 guy, who ironically was banned at LSB, where virtually anything goes. He comes over here and starts stalking commenters and throwing out the race accusations and the whole thing went downhill from there. But you've lost your perspective man. If this were your blog you would ban anyone who posted the last 2 things you just did. Rightly so. See ya. Bitch.
Okay, James. I'll just let the interminable fighting over Ron Washington consume the website that I've spent God-only-knows-how-many hours building over the last 3 1/2 years just to please you. Or not.
jake: everyone goes threw slumps. look at the rays what? 2 years ago. lost 7 straight going into the all-star break and ended up winning the AL. come on man. its a 162 game season everyone is going to have a slump they arnt going to win all the games. so chill out about the rangers my man they are going to go to the playoffs. they hit a bump in the road and now they are bout to start rolling again.