Hindsights Vol. 2: So Long Jon
I don't doubt or minimize the Nolan Ryan factor in the ascent of the Texas Rangers over the past three years, but let's be honest: this ballclub is succeeding because of what Jon Daniels has done, not just in terms of talent aquisition, but in terms of building a front office and scouting and development team that is arguably the best in the business.
Losing Nolan Ryan would be bad for this organization to be sure, and that has become the focus (well, fear, really) of local media and Rangers fans as they suffer through these increasingly bizarre bankruptcy proceedings, but the fact of the matter is that losing Daniels could very well become a crushing blow to the organization.
And you better get ready to take that hit, Rangers fans.
Just about five years ago today, Daniels posed a question to Jamey Newberg and me over lunch at Texas Land & Cattle near the Ballpark: "Do you think that Tom [Hicks] would consider hiring a 28-year-old as his GM?" This was about two months before John Hart would announce that he was stepping down from the position, but by the time Jamey and I reached our car for the return trip to downtown Dallas on that early-August day in 2005, we sort of looked at each other and said "we just had lunch with the next GM, didn't we?" We knew right then.
Now, five years later, and without the benefit of having a conversation with the man, I record the day that I came to the realization that Daniels' tenure as the Rangers' GM will almost certainly come to an end before opening day, 2011.
It's not necesarily a matter of a new regime wanting to install their own front office, either. Even if Rangers Baseball Express (popularly known as "the Greenberg / Ryan group") somehow walks away from Wednesday's auction as the winning bidder -- and I'm now guessing they won't because they are under the quaint assumption that the purpose of this entity is to operate a successful baseball organization, and we now know that's simply not the case -- Daniels has put himself in a position to land his dream job and there's simply nothing that the Rangers (whoever that turns out to be, if anyone) can do to stop him from taking it.
As Daniels himself has put it, when he got this job people said "he's smart, but does have guts?" and a year or so later, they said "he's got guts, but is he smart?"
Now, there's no question he's both incredibly clever and has balls as big as church bells.
As the debacles of the Adrian Gonzalez and John Danks trades recede into history and he adds more and more successful (often wildly successful) deals to his resume, Daniels has now demonstrated a phenomenal ability to acquire premium talent through every means possible. He's built a powerhouse farm system with a scouting and develpment team that is the best in the business. He's hauled in massive talents from the draft, international signings, and trades that leave you wondering how his scouts seem to have a better grasp of other clubs' minor league talent than the clubs that have the players to begin with.
Forced to constantly pull rabbits from a hat (and the hat itself has, most of the time, seemed to be invisible to everyone but Daniels himself), the man's performance over the past month has been nothing short of dazzling. While the baseball world allowed themselves to believe that having no money, no owner and no flexibility would prevent the Rangers from making any substantial moves unless and until the ownership issue was resolved, Daniels did the unthinkable. And then he kept doing it.
And then -- just to show off, I think -- he executed one of the most astounding moves yet yesterday afternoon by taking one of the game's most successful GM's (and the original Ivy League wunderkind) to the woodshed for the second time in three years.
Having backed himself into a corner on roster space, Daniels didn't do what everyone else would do on July 31 -- stick a guy on waivers and cross his fingers. Instead, with not much in the way of bargaining power, he used that "problem" to add to his seemingly unending armada of power arms. I can't decide which is nastier: getting Engel Beltre for what was left of Eric Gagne or getting Ramon Mendez for what's left of Jarrod Saltalamacchia's "future". Almost certainly the former, but Mendez has the sort of electric arm that could make a horse race out of it.
Meanwhile in Queens, the Mets -- with plenty of money and plenty of needs -- were unable to do anything to make their club better. You can bet that Fred Wilpon is watching what the kid who grew up as a Mets fan is doing down here in Texas.
Omar Minaya has run his course in New York. Jon Daniels can become a free agent this winter. Do the math.
The problem with building an organization and putting together a group of people as talented as Daniels has here in Texas (with the deck stacked against him in many ways) is that there is going to be attrition. Thad Levine will move on to become someone else's GM sooner than later (and whether or not Daniels stays). A.J. Preller is likely to join Levine and Daniels at the helm of an organization too at some point. Maybe Don Welke goes with Daniels. Maybe Levine. Other scouts will move along with these guys, and losing Daniels will just accelerate the whole process.
It's next to impossible for me to envision the Mets not looking for a new GM this winter. And given what he's has done in Texas with one -- and sometimes both -- hands tied behind his back, it's hard to fathom that anyone could possibly be higher on their wish list than Daniels.
Even if Rangers Baseball Express becomes the owner of this franchise at some point before winter, it's hard to fathom how Daniels doesn't jump at the chance to run the club he loved as a kid, with a huge payroll in a beautiful new stadium.
Will the next regime know to go after Neftali Feliz? Engel Beltre? Will they be the folks who see Tommy Hunter as a first round talent who could come quickly when everyone else thought he was a third rounder at best? Will the next GM have the cojones to pull off the Cliff Lee trade? Who knows?
Whether or not the Rangers front office exodus that is almost certain to come -- one way or another -- cripples this organization in the next decade remains to be seen, but whoever the new owners install to run this thing is going to have a very tough act to follow.
67 Comments | in Analysis, Ownership, The Season
Reader Comments (67)
Even if Daniels stays for a while I have a hard time believing that Levine and some others won't be poached soon. I'm hoping the Mets continue to be stupid by keeping Minaya and not offering Daniels a job.
Why wouldn't Levine be promoted to take JD's place if and when he leaves?
Its not done until its done. People don't always go home. With the new owner it may be a better situation here in Texas than the mess in New York. Let things play out before we write the final chapter on JD in Texas.
8.5 games up, best year ever.
This post is needlessly depressing.
I think you could have waited awhile to post an article like this. Jesus Christ. Talk about raining on a Rangers success parade.
This could be the weirdest season for a MLB club..... ever.
Bankruptcy....best trade aquisitions....auction.....new owner.....more lawsuits....new owners....World Series Champions.....lose our GM....re-sign Cliff Lee....aaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhh.
Oh well, I figured this wouldn't go over very well.
A question: Which would you folks rather live without? Ryan or Daniels? I'm not saying it's either / or in real life, but my question is which loss do you think would hurt the organization more?
I threw up a little after reading this. Sometimes saying what we are all thinking is unnecessary!
Losing Daniels hurts the club more, Losing Nolan will cause more stress to the fans.
@ Mike Hindman ...
Losing Daniels would be an unmitigated disaster ... losing Ryan would cost us in the marketing and "instant recognition and credibility" arena ... but take away Daniels, and the ship loses its rudder ... losing Ryan would be akin to the ship losing its "colors" ...
not pretty, but survivable.
I've been a Rangers fan since Day 1 ... and getting to the age where I can't keep investing myself in a franchise without "direction" ... please LORD, have mercy upon the long-suffering fans of the Texas Rangers !!!
I've been in this mindset a while. Haven't posted the actual thoughts because of the hand-wringing and visceral reaction that's bound to follow. Folks, this is life, there are always multiple balls in play, and while none of us on this side are in any position to affect it one way or the other it does no good to bury our heads in the sand.
MJH, I don't always agree with you, but you always have my respect. Acknowledging that your relationship with Daniels was more than just a passing one reinforces your integrity, given your honest and forthright reaction to the Danks deal. There are others in this market who's credibility has been compromised in my personal view. The best compliment I can offer you is that, I trust what you write.
After Cliff Lee, Daniels will be this off-seasons biggest free agent.
I'd rather live without Nolan, that's an easy question to answer.
Daniels is obviously the bigger loss: good things started happening in this organization as a result of him and his player development people, not Nolan. I think Nolan may have accelerated the process, but we don't know for sure. Given the choice, I'd much rather lose Nolan than Daniels.
A question: Which would you folks rather live without? Ryan or Daniels?
Are you asking this just to be nice to the people who really think this is debatable?
Remove Danies and Levine and Ryan is a paper tiger president. Totally feckless.
Rangers100: I'm asking this because the local media says / writes this all the time, but none of them ever seem to mention that losing Daniels would be far more of a problem than losing Ryan. I'm just curious if people actually feel the way that the local media seems to feel.
Thanks for the article Mike, not fun but worth thinking about for sure. Daniels is assuredly the single most important longterm factor to the rangers success. I love Nolan, but the talk about his impact on the club seems to be completely misguided. Nolan got here when JD had come up with the plan, already put it in place, and was just a year away from seeing the dividends pay off.
My hope has always been that JD wanted to be to the rangers what Schuerhlolz was to the Braves...the guy that singlehandedly gets credit for taking one of the historically worst teams in baseball, and not just puts them on the map, but makes them one of the best and most loved franchises in the game. I hope that appeal is stronger to him than moving to the Big Apple and playing with big kid money- I also hoped Gillespie would find the same appeal in Aggie basketball, and boy was I wrong. If JD leaves, I will wish him to have better luck than Gillespie did when he bolted from A&M for Kentucky.
Losing JD would be much worse than Ryan leaving! All it would take is a couple years of winning here, in what should be a "big market", and Daniels would have plenty of money to win every year without leaving to get that NY dough.
You, Mike Hindman, are a jerk! Thank you for kicking me in the balls this morning.
Losing Daniels would absolutely crush the momentum this organization has built...this makes me sad :(
Given the choice, I choose Daniels.
That said, Ryan is a stabilizer should his group get control and Daniels leaves. Claiming Ryan is nothing more than a figurehead is groundless.
However, should Ryan/Greenberg get the team, I expect him to lock up Daniels long term. Precisely because he is an astute businessman.
This is excellent perspective; a view everyday baseball fans just as soon ignore (local media too). That's why I enjoy your articles; they're thought provoking. JD has done a great job and he is critical-path to the Rangers future success. I can only hope the owners-to-be understand this and are ready to take corrective action. ChopperJim
Mike, I value your read on this as much as anyone's. I know people are riding high on the Harden start, but this is the reality of situation that has gotten much uglier ever since Cuban threw his hat into the ring. All the more reason to enjoy this season as much as possible.
I get so tired of hearing about coaches and GMs--in any sport--pining after their "dream jobs" and that their time in their current position is quickly ticking down. Sure, if the new ownership situation causes Daniels to question the future direction of the club, then I have no doubt that he will keep his options open. But if he is assured by the new owners that he can keep this ship heading in the direction it's in, there is no way he's leaving. He has too much of a good thing (in players and staff, not necessarily money) to slam the door shut on it now.
Hindman, are you trying to become the Fraley of the blogosphere?
And to answer your subsequent question, I would without a doubt or second thought keep JD over Ryan. While Ryan has brought some street cred to the front office and the players definitely look up to him, simply calling people out to make higher pitch counts does not make one a baseball genius. Ryan's impact is WAY overstated.
Mike, Good to see you writing about the Rangers again. Unless, I somehow missed you posting somewhere else.
For the life of me, I cannot understand the Greenberg love. Both Cuban and Fox are sure to be better capitalized and highly motivated to put-out and entertaining-- and winning-- product on the field.
Let's hope we don't lose JD, but we are being a bit premature. Let's make the playoffs first.
But Ryan, meh. He certainly has/brings plenty of cred...but no more so that a number of other seasoned baseball execs that either Cuban or Fox are sure to bring on board
I think you are making a lot of assumptions:
1) People always want to move back to near where they were raised. I live in California although I was raised in Fort Worth. People put down roots where they move. Everytime there is a free agent that people want that was raised in Texas people assume it is a big factor that they can move back home. I can't think of a single time that turned out to be a factor.
2) He wan'ts to start over with the Mets now that he has the organization here where he wants it. Does he really want to do that? Can he duplicate what he has done here? He gives a lot of credit to his staff. Maybe they deserve it. I'm not sure they are all going to want to move to New York or that they can under their current contracts.
3) He would have the freedom to do what he wants in New York. Its a bad organization. I don't think that's just Minaya's fault. Would be be free to trade away veterens and let the team lose for a couple of years?
Maybe he moves or maybe he doesn't. But I don't think just the fact that he grew up loving the Mets is going to be a big factor in his decision.
Cubes, keep the smartest guy in the room.....JD
Nolan is great for pr purposes, but Jon Daniels built this team up to what it is today. Please Jon, say it ain't so!!!!
Omar Minaya has run his course in New York. Jon Daniels can become a free agent this winter. Do the math.
That's all I saw as far as basis for the story. Do I have that right?
So JD's built a turnkey 5-year contender for...the next guy. So JD can take over...the Mets (wow). And build what he has here...there. If it works out. And moving his family is a non-factor in light of the above.
Is the ownership situation really that far gone? Cause I thought that was about to straighten out.
Somehow the ideas here shed the harshest light on JD, or at least the multitiered masterwork he's put together. I mean this giant is wide awake, dude.
What a great article , and yet so damn depressing at same time. What a shame that this seems to be the most likely reality. Ugh.... I hate you.
This post is baseless. It seems predicated on the fact that Jon Daniels is the type that builds and runs. Assuming it isn't something like Jim Crane or another owner (News Corp?) that would bring in their own people, Jon isn't leaving. He's said as much (if that means anything). In fact, he may be emboldened by the new influx of money that may come from a non-Hicks tenure. If JD can do this with his limited resources now, imagine what he can do w/ money. Mets? pfffff...childhood dream or not, he should realize that as much as he has done with the situation here, the situation here gave him the ability to shine regardless of financial issues.
The saddest part of all this is that over at DMN there are plenty of regular posters for whom losing JD would be the best thing that could happen to the Rangers. Sigh...
I'm hoping that JD is more like Oakland's GM Billy Beane and dosen't look to jump to the big money team. Rarely does it work when a general manager or manager that has been successful on a smaller money team make the jump to a bigger money team and have it pay off. I think he realizes how good a team he has built here and how good we will be and for how long. Losing Thad and other underlings will hurt but they are replaceable.
Perhaps the one good thing that Hicks has done as an owner is to give JD a free hand. I suspect the only way he would stay would be if the new owners continue in the same vein. Would he get a free hand in NY? Because I don't doubt that he's come to enjoy not having an owner breathing down his neck.
Great writing, Mike, as usual. I suspect JD will be highly sought after and for the Rangers to keep him -- whomever the owner is -- they will have to double or triple his salary to get it up to the market. The rest will all be about control, budget, and lifestyle.
This is why I'm rooting pretty hard against Greenberg/Ryan. I strongly suspect that they have small-market-team budgetary restrictions. I think that's why they went along with the obviously shady Hicks side deals in their original bid, and why they tried so hard (filing bankruptcy, upping their bid to try to shut down the Tuesday auction) to keep an un-Hicks-encumbered Rangers' team from hitting the open market through the auction process. They just know that they have the least money of any of the bidders, they are doing less of this with their own money (as opposed to borrowed money) than the other groups, and have streched their ability to borrow further than the other groups.
If the Mets/Dodgers/Cubs throw Yankees/Red Sox money at JD (which they all have the resources to do), I doubt Greenberg/Ryan could get within $1m/year over 5 years. That's a lot of lifetime personal financial security for JD and his family to pass up to stay with a club running a small-ish payroll, as the GR group would likely have to do. Cuban/Crane/As-Yet-Unkown-Bidder, on the other hand, would probably be able to match such an offer, and would probably be inclined to do so. GMs make a lot, but not player money, and this may be JD's best chance that he'll ever have to set his family up for life financially. We need an owner who will do that for him here.
"Daniels' tenure as the Rangers' GM will almost certainly come to an end before opening day, 2011."
To make this conjecture is wild speculation....without knowing Jon Daniel's career aspirations and the level of trust and respect between the GM and new ownership.
I tend to agree that JD would be a fool to turn down the mets with their income stream, new stadium, etc. Only real negatives is the mets ownership is pretty damn bad and the Mets will always be second fiddle to the yankees. between the sox and the yanks espn will never let the Mets on national tv.
Now to his successor. personally I would offer preller the GM post. He has a keen eye for talent especially in LA. He deserves a shot and give him a strong budget for scouting, development and J2/the draft. There is a lot of talent here and the main task is to fill the pipeline and keep the players moving up the ladder sucessfully. He needs to have someoneto add to his staff that is a good number 2 guy. Maybe a 2nd tier guy from Tampa would like an opportunity to show he can put together important pieces of a successful organization so he can move up.
Yes. Speculation. Also known as analysis. Hope I'm wrong, but doubt that I am.
No one liked "balls as big as church bells"? That was the only part of this I liked. Style over substance. Or, as a great man once said: "It's better to look good than to feel good."
Mike - pained me to read, but I suspect it very well may come to fruition. Which leads me to 2 thoughts:
1. If we aren't going to have this smart front office, I hope cuban wins the team. we'll need deep pockets to compete with a less talented front office.
2. i pray that JD makes the move BEFORE Thad Levine goes elsewhere. If Levin can retain a good portion of the staff, then all can be saved.
Welcome to September. A/K/A tread water month waiting for Ian and Josh to get healthy. Really like the compact swing and plate approach of Moreland. Want to see "More" of him. See what I just did there?
Mike, I agree with the "balls as big as church bells" characterization. Daniels is supremely confident.
How sure are you that he will leave, I think this is like the assumption that Cliff Lee is leaving which despite everything pointing that way I don't think it will happen. I know that a front office can't stay the same forever but I don't see JD leaving the job right now, if we win the WS or not, one way why would you leave the reigning champs and the other why leave the job unfinished?
This is why it is so important for Greenberg/Ryan to get ownership of this club. Daniels will probably leave to return to NY at some point and like the article says he grew up rooting for the Mets and they are desparate for a new GM and staff!! Ryan would be the only thing holding everything together then and we had better hope and pray that the vultures don't get the ball club.....Cuban would be terrible, his love is the Mavs and not the Rangers who would end up just being another toy for him to ruin! Fox News would be a complete debacle as it was for the Dodgers.........and Jim Crane...well he needs to stay in Houston!
Nice to see so many people appreciate JD....it wasn't always that way. My reponse to the column......maybe.......but you give far too much credit to the Wilpons. All JD has to see is the way they demand that non-performing players still play because of their contract....it should give anyone pause.
The only way JD will leave is if the Greenberg group wins, which I hope doesn't happen. JD wants money and chuck doesn't have the money to keep him here.
Nice article and not depressing in the least. If you do a good job, other people will want you. I would much rather have that than the alternative. One thing I would add: it took three years for success to truly bloom here. Would Mets fans and the ownership there have the same patience?
Now it's reported that it will take up to nine months to approve any bidder other than the GNR group. If that is true, and another bidder prevails, I would be outta here if I were Daniels.
I strongly believe that JD will stay if the money is comparible. Doesn't matter "up to" how many months approval might take. I suspect that any bidder other than NewsCorp gets approved by the offseason anyway, but even if not, as long as it appears that new ownership will eventually get approved, and that new ownership has the money and desire to match any offer for JD, he stays. If new ownership, regardless of how fast they get approved, can't afford a GM with a top-4 salary, then JD will walk to someone who will give him that. If he's offered 5 yr/$7.5m here, and 5 yrs/$15m elsewhere (or a similarly disperate pair of offers), he's gone.
Also, I think the notion that Selig can strong-arm this process is off base. Sure, if Selig doesn't like the winning bidder, he can take it to court and try to force the creditors to accept a lower bid. But the court he'd be arguing in front of is JUDGE LYNN'S FEDERAL BANKRUPTCY COURT. And from there to the Federal Circuit Court, and then SCOTUS. That's not going to go well for MLB. NewsCorp, having obviously ruined one MLB club, Selig could probably stop. But he's not going to be able to force the creditors to take $30-50m less because Cuban (who has run a successful and winning NBA club for years) is a bit of a pain in the butt. Or because Jim Crane isn't the career strikeout leader.
@ Craig Mellor
Who cares if I love the Mavs? Why would I buy the Rangers if I didn't intend on making them a championship franchise? What do you mean "another toy for [me] to ruin"? Do you know what you're talking about? Do you know what planet you're on?
IMO Cuban has been a great owner for the Mavs and would be for the Rangers as well. Obviously it's not easy putting together a contending team year after year, but I think Cuban would be committed to attempting that.
I'm assuming that's a fake Cuban, right?