Why This Isn't The Time To Fret
Taylor Teagarden rounds first base after clubbing a homer on Wednesday, August 18th.Well, it happened. For the first time since the jarring Baltimore-at-Texas disaster from July 8-11th (and the fifth time this season, though that isn't a point of great concern for me), the Rangers have been swept -- albeit by one of the best teams in baseball, while playing on the road with an injury-ravaged lineup. And in spite of that, the Rangers have lost exactly one-half of one game of ground in the division race over the last three days, which should serve as another clear indication that this division is still clinched tightly within their grasp ... but people's concerns aren't mollified quite so easily. More than anything else, they want to know that Texas won't collapse in the post-season, and to some, this three-game sweep signifies a huge red flag.
And, well, it's impossible to render iron-clad assurances to the contrary, but this simply is not the catastrophe that some will purport it to be, and context is one of the main reasons why. On Wednesday afternoon, the Rangers rolled out four players -- Taylor Teagarden (.259), Andres Blanco (.255), Julio Borbon (.286) and Joaquin Arias (.286) -- with season-to-date wOBAs below .290; furthermore, all four are projected to hit at right around replacement level the rest of the way. The logical expectation should be that neither Arias nor Blanco will log any significant playing time in a playoff series, and that Borbon, given the limited usefulness of his bat, will be restricted to late-inning defensive duties. (There's probably a debate to be waged on this point.)
"But the starting pitching sucked in Tampa Bay!", you grumble. And yes, it would be easy to draw such a conclusion from the average performance (5.0 IP, 5 ER) of Cliff Lee, Tommy Hunter and Derek Holland in this series, but Hunter was pitching in an apparently weakened state (residual effects from his short but violent bout of stomach flu), Holland hadn't pitched well since concluding his rehab assignment at Triple-A Oklahoma City, and Lee was victimized by one of the more brain-dead defensive innings in recent memory, hemorrhaging the bulk of his six earned runs during that inning but still managing to compile 10 strikeouts to just a single walk. It's also entirely possible that Hunter -- and certainly not Holland -- doesn't make any post-season starts, depending on series game schedules/durations.
But perhaps most significantly (and I hate to keep drilling this home, but it's important), the Rangers continue to match up well with the best American League teams where the most consistent indicators of post-season success are concerned: team strikeout rate, team defensive runs above average, and closer dominance. While it appears the Rays are the runaway favorites from a defensive standpoint (and that's not a knock on the Rangers so much as it is complimentary of Tampa Bay), one could reasonably argue that there is little separation between Rays closer Rafael Soriano and Neftali Feliz, and the Rangers are extremely potent strikeout-wise, boasting two starters -- Cliff Lee (7.99 K/9) and Colby Lewis (9.10 K/9) with well above-average strikeout rates and no fewer than four late-inning relievers with sparkling strikeout rates.
I sometimes wonder if such apprehension is prevalent in other fan bases, or if the fact that the Rangers have exactly one playoff win in their nearly 40-year franchise history amplifies our uneasiness -- even when the Rangers are on the brink of turning in one of their most special seasons ever. I don't have a good answer to that, but here's what I do know: the offense will get better, the defense will remain steadily good, and the pitching staff will, in all likelihood, remain an enormous October threat. Perhaps the time will come when panic of some sort is warranted (and I sincerely hope that doesn't prove to be the case), but right now is definitely and emphatically not the time for it.
Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (26)
True, we didnt suffer in the lost colume, we should take our division.... and we will be a good team in the platoffs. Lee, Lewis and Wilson can pitch with anybody. Our others are very "iffy" , but the 3 should get us thru the playoffs with our heads held high, and with some luck into the WS..
Thinking about the Yankees, Rays, Rsox, and Twins.... , for some reason, the twins worry me most.
But we will be OK, and will only get better each year, it will be easier with Lee, but not fatal without him....
No big heavy stats caused me to say this, just my opinion... you are welcome to yours.
and I enjoying reading them all.
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So get your HOPES up, for without hope, there is no faith....
Going up against the Rays ... with a 'B' game Spring Training lineup ... you didn't really expect more than this outcome, did you? ... should have won the first game (Lee), Hunter didn't look healthy to me in Game #2 (still feeling sick?), and Holland, while piling up the K's, wasn't sharp with his location in Game #3 ...
It happens ... fortunately, the Rangers have the luxury of allowing Kinsler, Cruz and Young the time they need to get healthy ... it's more important to be ready to get it done in September and October, than it is right now in August ... for now, if we can just "tread water" until our guys are healthy, we'll be OK.
It's August 19th ... MY will be back in a day or so ... Kinsler, Cruz, and Treanor will be back within the next 10-12 days ... September 1st is 13 days from today ... just hold things together over the course of the next two weeks, and then we should be ready to start rolling ...
No time to panic ... just persevere ... just win enough to keep the lead closer to 10 games than 5 games ...
GO RANGERS !!!
It's baseball. This is that "marathon" part of a season. This is a good team. A few games or a series loss here or there doesn't change that. That said, I don't understand the fixation with what may/may not happen in the postseason. Lets get there first. Lot of games to be played between here and there. Enjoy the moment we're in.
The most amazing thong about this season; is how impressive the pitching staff comates to other pitching staffs. This is probably the best pitching year in a long time, and the Rangers are up there with the best of them in alot of the important stats that male those teams elite. The injuries should be the main concern.
Dissapointing series, but certainly not the end of the world. Unless they get swept by the Showalter express, I won't be so worried.
Don't look now but Teagarden is starting to hit.
On the other hand, the Rangers' recent uneven play, 10-11 in last 21 games, puts them in jeopardy of not having home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Assuming the other 3 playoff teams are NY, Tampa & Min, the Rangers are the least sound fundamentally. Those three won't make the preponderance of baserunning mistakes we see with the Rangers. Those three are better defensive clubs than Texas, which now ranks 14th in AL fielding percentage. Those three have a better manager than the Rangers. The vaunted Ranger offense has struggled against the better pitchers this team has faced since the ASB. In the playoffs, they won't be facing the humpty-dumpties they saw in June when they really took charge of the West. There is reason to fear, perhaps even expect a first round bow-out in the playoffs.
It takes 162 games to get there, and three to bust out. But these are not those three.
I am really uneasy after this series, but you are 100% on point Joey. In fact this is one of the best things you have written. We still have over a month to get Cruz and Ian healthy, for Vlad to get some rest and get back on track, and to figure out who we can count on in the postseason between the bench guys. The pitching should be ok. CJ is still going strong, even though he is way past the point where many thought he would fall apart from fatigue. Hunter was pitching on short rest and coming off illness. We know what we are going to get from Lee. I HOPE that being around Lee will help Holland develop into a better and more reliable pitcher. I think his presence has been evident in CJ's game, and hopefully that will be the case with Derek. Moreland has really stepped up IMO, and even Taylor has shown we may not have to give up hope on him yet. I'm still excited about this team and think they can pull it together by the time the playoffs come.
I'm right there with you. No time to panic, but a few mild concerns that could morph into such:
1) Tommy Hunter, even before his flu bout, was starting to come back down to earth. He was knocked around pretty well toward the end of last season, as I recall. I just hope he regains some semblance of command. I love his bulldog mentality, but it works against him when he's not hitting his spots.
2) Of all the injured players, I've missed Kins the most. Until I see him healthy with my own eyes, I'm going to view with some suspicion (perhaps unjustly) the severity of his injury. Does a groin strain really take this long to heal? Unless it's really a tear or a bone break. I hope I'm wrong and just paranoid.
3) And, I was hoping we'd see Scheppers by now. The pen could use a fresh arm. I guess they are waiting for Sept. 1st. Did I miss something? Is he healthy? Is he still doing OK in the minors? I'm not overly concerned about the starters, but a leaky bullpen would not bode well for the postseason.
The mind understands and agrees, bu the heart says, "get the panic button from the closet and dust it off, just a little."
In my humble opinion, I believe the uneasiness is due in part to how fun the ride has been. By that I mean, it's been so amazing to see this team continually pull games out in the late innings and win series and we want that euphoric feeling to continue. We don't want to have reasons to doubt. Reality is that we have been banged up and relying on backups much more than usual, but we still want that high to continue. This is mid August, if we are going to have some bumps and bruises to overcome, now is the perfect time. If the calendar said September, there would be more cause for concern. But this team is solid up and down when healthy. As an eternal optimist, I can't help but think this stretch is exactly what the team needs right now. We need that reality check to keep the guys motivated to keep getting better and not complacent (I know, pros shouldnt need motivation...but the young guys just might). Wash is also giving the backups some high leverage playing time so he know who he can and can't count on in crunch time.
Take the series from Baltimore and get back to health, and all will be just fine. We knew this was going to be a tough stretch in the schedule, we should be glad that we have the lead we do.
I feel the same way. It's easy to explain this one away, although I bet most of us would be apoplectic if the same thing had happened against the Yankees or Red Sox, home or away, no matter the circumstances. We underestimate the Rays at our own risk!
My big concern, as it applies to potential post-season play, is we haven't shown we can win indoors. Over the past two seasons, we haven't fared well at all at the Trop, the Skydome or the Metrodome. Thank God we don't have to worry about the Metrodome anymore (although Target Field wasn't very hospitable the first time around either).
If we were involved in a tighter race, I bet Young wouldn't have sat the past two games , Elvis wouldn't have rested yesterday and Cruz wouldn't have been put on the DL for the third time. The lead is allowing us to take extra measures to try to ensure full health for the post-season.
And for all his upside, is anyone else wondering if Derek Holland even has a plan when he's pitching or just daring the other guys to hit his stuff?
What worries me is that Texas has many games against Minnesota and Oakland remaining. The team may go 6-8 in those contests. They also play the final 17 games of the season in a ROW. The first ten of those are on the ROAD and 7 of those 17 are against the ANGELS. Having those circumstances, only an 8 game lead in the division, prospects of not having home field advantage in the playoffs and the first round being a 5 game series just doesn't leave a good taste in my mouth. Been on the bandwagon since that first game in 1972 and I've been put through too much over the years. I've got my gear on and I'll keep saying a prayer that this all works out!
I agree that we need not panic because this has been one of the best Rangers seasons in team history and arguably our best team in the history of the franchise. We may have all but locked-up a playoff birth, but our success this year has led fans (myself included) to expect to go deep into the playoffs. It's seems more than 85% likely that we will face the Rays or Yankees in the first round. What makes me "panic" is seeing our lead on the race for home field advantage for the first round turn into a deficit over the last week or so. The twins are 2 1/2 to 3 games up on us right now, and as much as I'm optimistic about how competitive of a team we have this year, the prospect of facing the Rays or Yankees in the first round w/o homefield advantage does make me "panic" somewhat in regards to our chances to get out of the first round. Or, it could be panic because I have options for playoff tickets and might only see one game the first round if we are the lower seed. As important as our games against LAA/OAK down the stretch are, what may be more important are the 7 games remaining against the Twins.
To Jim's point, to start the year, Teagarden was a clueless .037 in 10 games. Since coming back up he's played in 9 and is hitting 302 with 4 dings. http://dallasnews.stats.com/mlb/playerstats.asp?id=8306&page=splits
Both are far too small a sample size to judge, but, I think he looks a lot better. Striking out some less, hitting more balls, fouling more pitches, working counts deeper. Grieve said the catwalk shot yesterday was likely 450 feet plus. His next at bat was smoked to the wall in deep center. In short, he is playing well enough to continue getting opportunities and is doing so completely under the radar at this point. If he continues his current level of play, it will be difficult for Treanor to break back into the line up after this injury.
I'm thrilled that TX is in the position it's in despite the many injuries to key players this season. The team's #1 goal over the next several weeks should be to get healthy, even at the cost of putting out the best lineup possible, like yesterday. The worst part of the Cruz and Kinsler injuries is it makes it harder to rest other key players.
@augie...
dont worry about Treanor, Wash will put him in.... we may not understand,(usually dont) but he has some weird mentality about "loyalty".. I am also liking what Teagarden has shown us this time around.
He may be a keeper after all. but right now Teagarden is not a vetern, so he has no value to Wash.
While it may not be time to panic, there is certainly concern for the future. As in:
Failure to perform well against the top competition in the American League, namely the Yankees, Rays and yes, the Twins, who swept the Rangers earlier this season;
The percentage of pennant race/playoff experience in the rotation. Take away Cliff Lee and that answer is zero percent;
It's easy to say the team will hit as it once has, but other than the otherworldly Josh Hamilton, where will this come from? Michael Young? Ian Kinsler? Nelson Cruz? And don't even start thinking of Old Bones Guerrero. The aforementioned have been inconsistent in the second half of the season;
The schedule is as tough as it gets for an American League team. The Rangers have to play the Twins 7 times, the A's 7 times and the Angels 7 times. And oh by the way, they have a three-game trip to New York as well;
While it would be a good thiing to win the division and get into the playoffs, the way this team is going at the moment they would get battered into submission by the Twins, Yankees and most certainly the Rays.
Panic? Not really. Concern? Definitely.
Im less concerned about the pitching and injuries and more concerned about the defense. I heard on the radio the other day that we were in the bottom half of almost all defensive categories. Washington is the defensive guru right? Well, let's see it. I believe that he can do it.
Well said, Joey. Don't worry about the national pundits who don't even realize half our lineup was out. We got this.
I agree with Joey; it's not time to panic. It is however a tad worrisome that we're getting hit with the injury bug and poor pitching performanes MID-WAY through AUGUST.
There's still alot of ball to be played... and we all know what Spetember temps are like; HOT, HOT, and oh yeah, HOT. Perhaps we're witnessing the heat's effect. Not an excuse... just an observation. This is why JD assembled depth...
My biggest concern, and I know I'm getting way ahead of myself here... but bear with me, is the Yankees. We just don't match up well; (this assumes everyone is healthy)
1B - Moreland/Cantu vs. Texiera EDGE: Yankess
2B - Kinsler vs. Cano EDGE: Yankess
SS - Elvis vs. Jeter EDGE: Rangers (defensively)
3B - Young vs. ARod EDGE: Yankees
C - Molina/Treanor/TT vs. Posada/Cervalli EDGE Yankees
Outfield - Hammy/Cruz/Borbon/Murphy vs. Granderson/Gardner/Swisher/Kearns EDGE: Rangers
Bench - Blanco/Arias/Guzman*/Boggs vs. Kearns/Johnson*/Thames/Pena EDGE: Yankees
DH - Vladdy vs. Berkman EDGE: Even (especially now, while Vladdy is struggling)
SP - Lee/CJ/Lewis vs. Sabathia/Hughes/Burnett or Pettitte EDGE - Even (I think Lee/CJ is better than Sabathia/Hughes... but I'm not sure about Lewis vs. a healthy Pettitte or Burnett, I'd have to probably give the edge to the Yankees)
Bullpen - O'Day/Ogando/Frankie/Feliz (long relief Hunter?) vs. Robertson/Joba/Wood/Rivera (long reliefVasquez) - EDGE - Rangers (Rivera is dominant but I'd take our guys over their guys any day of the week)
The Rangers will need help to win a series vs. the Yankees... they will have to be healthy and clicking on all cylinders. Experience is a major issue as the Yankees know how to preserve and prep their bodies for October, the Rangers are learning on the fly.
What "Connor's Dad" said............
Joey,
You gave us a nice, uplifting piece instead of something to evoke critical thinking but it didn't help tonight. Another loss and another game lost in the standings to the Angels.
Joey - what's the latest on Kinsler? Any chance he plays in August?
Last reports already had him pushed back to the beginning of September. Might be ready to start rehab sometime next week.
JOEY, ANOTHER GREAT ARTICLE THAT CREATES THOUGHTFUL COMMENTS FROM READERS. WITH C.J. AND LEE COMING BACK AROUND AND HOPEFULLY HUNTER HEALTHY AND COLBY ALWAYS PITCHES A GOOD GAME, I FEEL THAT THE RANGERS WILL BE BACK ON TRACK AGAIN. KEEP UP THE GOOD ARTICLES. LOOK FORWARD TO THE NEXT ONE!