The Hidden Value Of Cliff Lee
Exactly five months have now passed since I rendered the C.J. Wilson-to-Ubaldo Jimenez comp (which admittedly did have a few caveats attached), and, well, it sort of ended up ringing true -- but only if you work a little after-the-fact magic and instead call Wilson a poor man's left-handed Jimenez. Their batted-ball, BABIP and homer rates are all very, very close, but the sharp strikeout/walk dichotomy between the pair has one in the midst of the National League Cy Young Award race, and the other ... well, just being very good. Not that there's anything wrong with that, mind you.
But it isn't my intent to devote a third morning missive to Wilson inside of a 30-day span (the first two instances of that can be found here and here, respectively), because on this day, the fifth day where we're fortunate enough to observe Cliff Lee ply his craft, I want to spend a little time discussing two "hidden" aspects of his value -- one empirical, and one more theoretical -- and how one, in particular, may be tying into what Wilson's currently doing on the pitching rubber.
There's been some discussion of a student-mentor relationship existing between Wilson and Lee since the latter's arrival in Texas last month, one presumably revolving around Lee imparting morsels of knowledge to Wilson on approach, delivery, pitch grips, mental acuity and so forth. Since then, I've noticed several single-game strike zone maps -- including yesterday's -- from Wilson where a preponderance of his pitches have been targeted towards the strike zone's outer third against both left- and right-handed batters; I've also rewound back to several of his successful pre-Cliff Lee starts earlier this season, and couldn't detect such an apparent pattern in his pitch locations.
That, of course, is a very small sample size, but it does have me wondering about something: is Wilson, by virtue of his similar handedness/arsenal, the optimal student? In other words, does he stand to gain more from Lee's presence than, say, Tommy Hunter? I'm predisposed to conservative valuation of stuff like this (stuff that pitching coach Mike Maddux refers to as the "osmosis effect"), and I'm not convinced that Lee's presence totally accounts for what we've seen from Wilson as of late, but when this many pitchers down in the trenches are heralding Lee and there at least seems to be something changing in the process, well, I can't ignore that. And if Lee's tutelage could be expected to lop something like, say, 0.10-0.20 runs off the earned run averages of guys like Martin Perez and Derek Holland during their acclimation period, then that's something you'd need to take into consideration when preparing to make a post-season run at re-signing Lee.
The second point I want to quickly make again involves the economic side of the game, something that has been capturing more and more of my attention lately: if you assume that the pitcher(s) who would be replacing Lee in 2011 and beyond would provide league-average performance (around two wins above replacement, and even this assumption is something of a stretch), and that Lee could be reasonably expected to offer 4-5 wins above replacement annually, then that's something you also need to factor into your revenue projections. In "Baseball Between the Numbers," Nate Silver found that one additional win per season equaled slightly more than $1 million in increased profits; it strikes me that Lee could offset around $2-3 million of his monstrous salary per season solely because of the enhanced cash flow that would accompany his presence.
To be clear, I still don't think I'm very much on board with the notion of re-signing Lee at a guaranteed sum beyond $100-110 million (even with the considerations presented here), but with the news that new ownership has already scrapped its old payroll projections -- which called for something in the vicinity of $77 million in 2011 and $84 million in 2012 -- in favor of more aggressive numbers, this notion of bringing back Lee is becoming incrementally more appealing. And as irrational as it might sound on the surface, another strong performance against the Rays tonight will push us all one tick closer towards wanting to keep him around for a very long time.
Analysis, The Season
Reader Comments (29)
i want so badly to keep Lee. It would be great for the franchise not to mention for the RBE group. Offer 5/110 and see where it goes. I would not do anything stupid say 6/7 for 150ish. we need to stay in budget but it would show a lot for the Offensive Minded Rangers to finally spend some money on a GOOD pitcher.. sorry chan ho. I can't wait to see Holland learn from Lee like Wilson has.
I truly wonder what goes through Lees mind when people bring up his future. It's always hard to gage what these big time free agents think. I hope he's a straight laced dude that wants to get paid, but wants to win just as badly. I wish we had even a tad bit of insight of what his future plans are, but I think this cloud of mistery always makes for great anticipation, but I wish we knew before hand what the final decision would be.
Joey -
I would love to keep Lee. Any speculation about the effect this would have on the Ranger's ability to sign Hamilton, Kinsler, Cruz etc long term given a payroll of "x" million dollars per year? From a pitching standpoint, Lee is just what the doctor ordered. While it's hard to determine the "ruboff effect" on others, he's surely saved some measurable wear and tear on a bullpen that was starting to fray at the edges before he came on board. I think this has helped the Rangers just as much on days that he didn't pitch.
One more thought. I think it's worth discussing that while the Rangers have a good record, it's not so good that in most cases they wouldn't have a team on their tail or in fact a couple games ahead of them. They are fortunate to have the second best team in their division playing only .500 ball. If the Rangers are going to the promised land, they will need continued improvement through the end of the year.
I say offer lee whatever it takes... There's no such thing as overpaying for a ring, and I think Lee gets you one in the next 3-5 years.
The biggest advantage that CJ (or Holland/Perez) would have as a student of Lee is on their approaches. Anyone can try to work on a similar approach (live on the outer third of the zone and mix it up to keep them honest), but CJ is coming from the same direction as Lee. When they're attacking a righty they can use the same approach, and more specifically if they're gameplanning on how to attack a specific hitter (we'll say Longoria) they can pool their ideas and come up with the "perfect" attack. A righty has to approach Longoria differently; he'd probably live with the fast ball and breaking pitch instead of the changeup.
Lee is one guy. With him on THIS team with this talent level, he puts you near the lip of the cup. If the talent level around him were less, say like the last two or three years, we'd be like Kansas City with Greinke. You can't let one player at any position compromise the ability to sign and have a good players at most positions, and particularly 4-6 quality starters and quality relievers. If signing him at 100 to 110 million compromises that ability, grit the teeth, close your eyes and wish him well with the Yankees.
Thank you for validating my guesstimation 4@90 = 4@80 for the Rangers due to increased revenue and = 4@100 for Lee because of saved taxes. It's a great win win situation. I would even put a club option for a 5th year but any longer than that probably hurts us a the end of the contract.
We first have to sign MVP, then Lee, then worry about Cruz and Kinsler. I hope that we use incentives in the 2 latter contracts because health is becoming a real issue with these 2.
I wouldn't be surprised to see payroll over 90 soon. Attendance is up, tv numbers are up, playoff money soon, all the bandwagon fans need their Ranger gear. Winning cures all ills. With the DFW market there is no reason a winning club can't draw 30,000 plus even on a Tues against Seattle.
Life is good. GO RANGERS!
I think Lee has incredible value both in what he actually produces himself in terms of wins, but also in ancillary benefits like his effect on the other pitchers, increased attendance, stability atop the rotation -- which gives the team flexibility in addressing its other needs.
I'd be fine with the team spending close to $25M a year for 4 years, perhaps 5, with a vesting option. That might be enough to stave off the Yankees, it might not. If he signs with the Yankees (or another team, but, let's face it, what other team is in position to offer that, Boston?) I think it will be because of years, not dollars.
This is one major reason I am exciting Holland is finally back to the bigs (among other reasons). I know it is hard to quantify any benefit of sitting next to Lee in the dugout, but it sure can't hurt. Same goes for Scheppers when he is up next month.
Very similar to the magic that Mark Buerhle was able to work with John Danks. Danks doesn't get that exposure in Arlingtong to the cutter that the CWS was able to afford him early. Has had a tremendous impact in his performance to-date.
Seattle had Lee and was going nowhere fast. We had A-Rod and went nowhere fast. Kansas City has Greinke and has gone nowhere fast. I wouldn't mind spending Yankee money on Hamilton, Lee, Cruz, etc. But, you better know you can write the check. And even more importantly, if something happened that prevented Lee from effectively pitching for his entire contract, can ownership handle that. the alternative, see last ten years to know how financially crippling (sp?) and team crippling that can be. Just want people to tap the brakes, think a little. No question he makes a team better. But, there's a reason only a few teams can bid at that 100 million dollar number.
What's the magic number at now?
37
What about CJ Wilson gaining all the knowledge he can from Lee and then being the guy that rubs off on Martin Perez and Derek Holland in the future? Couple that with Mike Maddux and then you could have a guy at a much cheaper rate applying the same principle written about in this article.
That being said - I would still love to have Cliff Lee back for 3-4 more years.
P.S. Everyone talks about how he is saving the bullpen, and I totally agree. But how many more complete games can he throw before he himself starts to wear down toward the end of the season?
@Trey: a large chunk of Lee's complete games have put less stress on his arm than say most of Feldman's 4-6 inning POS starts. He's not throwing very often with men on base and is rarely throwing more than 15 pitches in any given inning. If he can keep up the historically low walk rates and the efficiency, the complete games shouldn't wear him down any more than any other pitcher who's pitched for a playoff team.
Everything I've read is that yankees fans think that they have Lee in the bag, but I really think that he enjoys how loose and fun our team is and how all the guys get along on and off the field. The yankees have always been known to be real business-like and "no facial hair or long hair"...If he really wants to be a Yankee, then we have not shot, but if he wants to be in a fun, relaxed, winning atmosphere, we have a legit shot at resigning him.
Trey, I'd love to have both Lee and Wilson rubbing off on the younger guys. Wilson's work ethic and always-be-a-learner attitude is awesome, and Lee teaches every time he takes the mound.
I want badly to see Lee signed again I think $90 mil for 4 years with a 5th year option. The Rangers are going to have some very good pitchers coming up for several years and don't need to spend most of the money available on 1 free agent.
I think that Greiner would be more affordable in a trade from K.C.
I really like Moreland and Ogando and hope to see Scheppers up in September. Hope to see Holland up before then.
I think he really enjoys wearing the beard on the mound. Can't do that as a Yankee! That should seal the deal. It's not really about the money, it's about the freedom to rock whatever absurd facial hair you want to. See: CJ's awesome handlebar stache on his MLB 10 The Show mugshot.
I don't think this is getting nearly enough attention. I wouldn't be shocked to see the presser in December when Cliff announces that he is signing with Texas over the more lucrative Yankee offer because he can't stand the idea of "shaving for The Man"
@Bill M: Could you please turn off the caps lock when posting? Thanks.
Some players are born wearing pinstripes. Mart Texiera, for example. Was there really any doubt that he'd end up in NY, however much Texas offered him? Hard for us outsiders to be sure, but Lee doesn't seem to be cast in this mold. That doesn't mean he doesn't like money though....
Just thought I'd rehash the number from the contracts of some other pitchers. CC Sabathia got seven years for 161 million -- the largest contract for a pitcher. He was 28 when he got that deal. The most any pitcher has ever received per year is 23 million. Johan Santana got just below that number over six years (6 for 137.5 million). Here's the full list:
1. C.C. Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15)
2. Johan Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13)
3. Roy Halladay, $20,000,000 (2011-13)
4. Carlos Zambrano, $18,300,000 (2008-12)
5. Barry Zito, $18,000,000 (2007-13)
6. Jake Peavy, $17,333,333 (2010-12)
7. A.J. Burnett, $16,500,000 (2009-13)
-John Lackey, $16,500,000 (2010-14)
8. Justin Verlander, $16,000,000 (2010-14)
9. Jason Schmidt, $15,666,667 (2007-09)
10. Felix Hernandez, $15,600,000 (2010-14)
11. Derek Lowe, $15,000,000 (2009-12)
12. Roy Oswalt, $14,600,000 (2007-11)
13. Mark Buehrle, $14,000,000 (2008-11)
14. Roy Halladay, $13,333,333 (2008-10)
15. Ryan Dempster, $13,000,000 (2009-12)
16. Chris Carpenter, $12,700,000 (2008-11)
17. Bronson Arroyo, $12,500,000 (2009-10)
18. Kevin Millwood, $12,000,000 (2006-10)
So where should/will fall on this list? He's arguably coming off one of if not THE best stretch of anyone on that list. However, when he inks that contract, he'll be a full four years older than CC was when he signed for 7 years @161 million.
now that "the man" has died, will the no facial hair standard be kept?
.wondering out loud
The King Felix deal looks like a bargain, doesn't it?
you have to pay lee what ever he wants if his efect on willson can be the same with holland and perez and wilson keeps learning and colby keeps throwing well that would be great
Who do you think this year's surprise prospect(s) will be? I like Christopher Hanna, drafted in the 11th round. I think the Rangers have a done a good job of drafting short lefty pitchers, especially since the market for them may not be as high.
Cliff Lee is not signing for 4/90. That is a homer contract. He's not taking anything less that $100M and he will want at least 5 years. You're looking at 5/100 at the very least, probably more like 6 years $130M (about what Johan Santana signed with the Mets).
Lee is going to the Yankees because they want him. No matter what Texas offers they can and will top it.
As a Phils fans, I desperately hope the Rangers keep Lee. Keeps him away from Yanks and the Rangers are an easy team to root for. Best of luck in the playoffs, and enjoy Lee, He's amazing.