Thursday Afternoon Rangers Notes: The Heat Still Doesn't Matter
Cliff Lee awaits the hook from manager Ron Washington on Wednesday, August 11th.A few afternoon-after-getting-kicked-in-the-groin things to contemplate while, hopefully, you (a) check out the latest Jason Parks and Kevin Goldstein podcast extravaganza at Baseball Prospectus, and (b) follow both myself and the Professor on Twitter (here and here, respectively):
● Well, it's happened again: the annual "pitchers won't sign with Texas because of the heat" article, only this time it's been framed as Cliff Lee not wanting to re-sign with Texas because the Rangers are highly unlikely to provide a $100 million outlay to install heat-suppressing sunshades around the Ballpark that would cool the stadium by a factor of 10-15 degrees. This is described as not a luxury for the fans, but rather a necessity for the Rangers if they desire to keep Lee around -- this in spite of the fact that Lee himself asserts that the heat will not factor into his decision on where to sign, and, perhaps more significantly, that "the heat doesn't bother [him]."
I've already eviscerated this viewpoint in this morning's Clubhouse post on the issue, but here's the Reader's Digest version: Lee, if he were to re-sign with Texas, would make fewer than 10 home starts -- likely more on the scale of 7-9 such starts -- during the June-August time frame where the high temperatures in Dallas/Fort Worth reach their apex. Yes, the heat is challenging to handle in that relative handful of starts, albeit to varying degrees from one start to the next. And yes, making the Ballpark more pitcher-friendly in this regard very marginally improves your chances of signing a given free-agent pitcher. But you're absolutely not going to convince me that the heat factor is any more significant than the other ancillary factors in his decision-making process such as, say, proximity to home or the quality of the team facilities and/or medical staff.
And here's the thing: Lee is not filthy rich by major league standards. He's going to be strongly motivated to maximize two -- well, three -- things: (a) the present-day value/duration of his next contract, and (b) his chances of winning a championship. And the amount of money is going to account for upwards of 90 percent of his ultimate decision. You don't "have" to make the conditions at the Ballpark more comfortable to lure pitching talent here. You simply have to put the most money on the table. That's it. Colby Lewis and Rich Harden didn't take less guaranteed money this winter so that they could pitch in Minnesota, Oakland, or wherever. The entire "the heat is going to prevent Texas from re-signing Lee" premise is just ludicrous.
And while I appreciate that the article's author -- Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, who I think is the best beat writer in this market, and who I have a lot of respect for -- hours later wrote another post poking huge holes in his own morning column and making many of the same points made in this morning's Clubhouse post, that doesn't render his original missive any less incorrect. It's just patently false, and it's perpetuating a complete myth, and it's the reason why Chuck Greenberg and Nolan Ryan and Cliff Lee and whoever else have to waste their time -- and everybody else's, for that matter -- downplaying the effects of the heat on players' decisions to sign here over and over again.
● It feels decidedly apropos that almost one year to the day after the Matt Purke signing fiasco came to a head (a fiasco which was, in large part, attributable to Tom Hicks), the Rangers not only officially changed hands from Hicks to the Chuck Greenberg/Nolan Ryan-led ownership group, but also inked their last unsigned first-round pick -- right-hander Luke Jackson (No. 47 overall), whose commitment to the University of Miami was shattered on Thursday after the Rangers locked him up with a comparatively huge $1.557 million signing bonus. Just to put this into perspective, no other first- or supplemental-round pick had yet been signed to a bonus more than $137,000 (No. 10 pick Michael Choice) above baseball's slot bonus recommendation; Jackson is signing at nearly $800,000 above slot.
[Update: Per general manager Jon Daniels, the Rangers have not yet agreed to terms with Jackson, but rather brought him into town on Wednesday for a physical. That said, it's only a matter of days -- hours? -- before his signing is finalized.]
Ripped off from my June 8th draft recap: "Described as another "late-helium" pick in the vein of Jake Skole, Jackson brandishes a 91-94 mph fastball that has been clocked as high at 96 mph -- a pitch which has some remaining projection velocity-wise -- and a "big" 12-to-6 curveball with abundant potential. His clean, repeatable delivery earns him points, but inconsistent command/control -- both grade out as 40 at the present and 50 in the future, per ESPN.com's Keith Law -- stemming in part from his late arrival on the high school baseball scene drove down his perceived value, as did some ambiguity around his signability." Short version: Great raw stuff and big-time athleticism.
● Relievers are notoriously fickle creatures. So, too, are people. Or maybe we just have selectively short memories. I get that everyone's hacked off at Frank Francisco for his inept performance over the last 48 hours, and I'm certain that some vestiges of distrust remaining from his early-April meltdown have exacerbated the anti-Francisco sentiment, but here's the thing: Francisco is essentially still the same pitcher that he's always been at controlling the things most within his pitching purview -- that is, strikeouts, walks and homers allowed. I can't emphasize that enough. And while it's true that his performance in high-leverage situations this season has been a tad shaky (which has also fed the anti-Francisco sentiment), this has not been the case during his career at large. You certainly don't use it against him when projecting his performance going forward.
Should Francisco's command-related struggles persist over the next week or two, Ron Washington and Mike Maddux will probably relegate him to a lesser role (think along the lines of a sixth- or seventh-inning man), and nobody will fault them for doing so. They'd probably be lauded for doing so, actually. But this isn't a matter of Francisco lacking in intensity or focus or drive or some other cliched quality, and while it's appropriate to say that, yes, Francisco did not pitch well in his previous two games, people really need to try and remember that Francisco is, in the grand scheme of things, still a very good relief pitcher. Nothing that has happened in the last 48 hours changes that.
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Reader Comments (12)
Thank you for setting the record straight on a few very annoying topics, Joey.
Evan evidently hasn't bothered to research the Phil Jones, IPCC, East Anglia e-mails disgrace, memos. It's hot in certain earthly locales. Texas is one of those locales. Nothing to see here. Mass Jim Jones-esque follow the herd mentality is no longer fashionable vis-a-vis the whole warming movement. Being the group-think, "I wanna be a journalist so I can change the world", idealist that he is, he just hasn't moved on.
That may sound a bit harsh, but truth is, I like Grant. He's a terrific baseball writer. He just gets on a tangent sometimes and is like a dog with a bone.
I believe the quote is "Show Me The Money!", not, "what's the heat index in your stadium in August?".
Francisco is still a very good pitcher. But he can't be on a 70+ appearance pace and continue to be effective. He's not Superman.
The nitpick I have with last night wasn't putting Francisco in for the eigth, it was putting Feliz in after the pitched two innings the night before (although I must admit those two innings only took 23 pitches). I think I would have rolled the dice and seen if Harrison would have been able to get it done. He was fresh and has been very effective lately.
On a step back to Francisco, he needs a couple days off too. He's threw a lot of pitches in the NY series.
While I do have concerns with signing Lee, I hate giving games away with poor play. Errors on the base paths is a killer. Cruz ran the Rangers out of an inning and has a ball hit his glove and can't catch the ball, then on a ball in the gap he gave up on the ball. Play has to get better, bats have to get better when it counts. Rangers can't get the tie run on third with no outs and not get the man home. Granted it was Mariano Rivera, but all i'm asking for is a deep fly ball. I don't want to be to hard on the Rangers because I think they show signs of playing as a team at times. It looks like the clubhouse really gets along (which is very important in order to win a World Series)
My solution to the Francisco problem: place on waivers and hope you can make a deal with a team who stills thinks he can close...then make Ogando the 8th inning guy and Scheppers the 7th inning guy
Problem Solved!!!
I love Frankie, but I can't trust him in big situations, I'm always nervous when he pitches in a close game. And it seems he has a hard time keeping his focus; I can recall at least 2 different times ( although dont remember exact games) where he failed to cover first base on a ground ball to right side and allowed runner to reach without even a throw to make it close. When he throws his splitter its either unhittable, nasty, unbelievable, wicked or any other adjective you can throw out there, or else he leaves it up and it gets pounded as we saw the last 2 games. I just hope somehting gets figured out with him before the postseason.
@Joey... Evan Grant the best beat writer? You must owe him money. He wrote the "heat" piece because he's fat ... and then got the memo from Nolan and reversed himself. Quality baseball journalism there.
Franky has a 2.38ERA second half going even after the last two games ... compared to 4.28 first half. If we're worried about him I can count at least three position players and a DH we need to worry about more.
We can't just start giving all of our players three day breaks. Then we will have Guzman trying to play three positions and once when he can't even play the one he is supposed to.
My solution to the Francisco problem: place on waivers and hope you can make a deal with a team who stills thinks he can close...then make Ogando the 8th inning guy and Scheppers the 7th inning guy
Problem Solved!!!
Except that teams submit August waiver claims all the time with no intent of doing an actual deal -- they just want to prevent somebody else from getting him. It wouldn't shock me if he had already been claimed and pulled back. And besides, I doubt that the talent level of whatever marginal-grade prospect(s) the Rangers might acquire is enough to justify the opportunity cost, which, in Francisco's case, is probably a late first-round and supplemental-round pick in next year's stacked draft class.
Because he's probably going to be a Type A free agent, and despite his high-leverage struggles this year, I have a really difficult time imagining Francisco not being offered a multi-year deal by somebody. Much worse relievers than Francisco have made serious bank in free agency.
If pitching is the mostly widely misunderstood subject amongst fans. The comment, "I get nervous when pitcher X comes in the game" drives me nutty. Look, if your ERA is more than 0.00, you are going to give up runs. If you are a high leverage reliever, everybody is going to notice those runs. That's just the way it is. Of course you get nervous with a small lead. Don't peg that on the pitcher.
Frankie is solid. The Rangers relief core is one of the top reasons that we are where we are.
Thank you Joey. For putting the bigger picture in perspective with Franky. It's sucks that his struggles have been during big moments, but it happens to the best of them every once in a while. The yanks are good, I shouldn't have expected them to just fall over die.
It just goes to show you the expectations this team now has and the things that come with those expectations.
Frankie (along w/ Lee) are Type A's. I doubt either one will be here same time next year. Both will be missed. Although Frankie will be easier to replace with the upcoming minor league pitching.
Truthfully, I wish we could sign Lee for five years (want no part of seven years) and let Frankie walk in order to restock the minor leagues.
However, Lee will get $20+m for 7 years from the Yankees; excuse me Damn Yakees!
Note to Frankie: Texas Longhorns coaches not allowed to lose to OK. Kansas coaches not allowed to lose to Missouri. A&M coaches not allowed to lose to TX. OK. not a allowed to lose to OK State. Ranger pitchers not allowed to give up home runs or "high leverage hits" to A-Rod.
Otherwise, there is criticism (rightly or wrongly).