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« Thursday Afternoon Rangers Notes: The Heat Still Doesn't Matter | Main | David Murphy, Yankee Killer »
Thursday
Aug122010

On Lee, Lousy Defense, Lousier Descriptions, And Dumb Luck

Cliff Lee departs in the seventh inning against the Yankees on Wednesday, August 11th.Box scores and baseball broadcasts are often misleading artifacts. Check out Cliff Lee’s line from last night’s game:

6.1 IP, 8H, 4 ER, 11 K, 0 BB, 0 HR, 106 pitches (76 strikes).

It was Lee’s shortest outing since his start against the San Diego Padres back on May 21, and at least by the box score, his worst outing with Texas since his July 10 debut against the Orioles.

Folks who glance at that box score this morning after not having watched the game may wonder if Lee wilted in the Texas heat, or caved under the pressure of the vaunted Yankees lineup. There might be something to the former, but the answer to the latter is a definitive “no.”

Lee has been a hero to the Rangers faithful since Texas acquired him, but as Eric Nadel noted last night, the management needs to understand that Lee’s not Superman. After nine straight starts of at least eight innings, Lee definitely looked gassed by the time Ron Washington pulled him from the game in the seventh. The hot and steamy weather almost certainly had something to do with that.

But as dead-on as Nadel was, his partner, Dave Barnett, was equally off base. Barnett repeatedly credited the Yankees (and faulted Lee) for the big plays that led to the Yankees four runs. Derek Jeter’s pop fly to the right-field corner than Nelson Cruz played into a leadoff triple? That was, according to Barnett, Lee’s fault, because he left his pitch up. And so, consequently, was the run that Jeter scored to cut the Rangers’ lead to 6-2 — despite the fact that Jeter crossed the plate after Bengie Molina failed to block an inside slider, and that Lee went on to strike out the side. Barnett also blamed Lee’s pitch location for Lance Berkman’s run-scoring double in the seventh, which made it 6-3. It was left to Nadel to insist that Nelson Cruz bailed on what was an eminently catchable fly ball that landed on the warning track, just as Nadel was the one who pointed out that Cruz over-slid on the Jeter triple.

(Barnett’s calls continued to baffle. After Darren O’Day struck out Jeter for the second out of the seventh, for example, Barnett proclaimed that O’Day had surrendered Brett Gardner’s RBI single earlier in the inning. In fact, Gardner registered that hit off Lee. No correction was forthcoming. Barnett seems like a great guy, but he’s well past the point at which he can be cut slack for being new to the game. The Rangers must consider finding a new partner for Nadel.)

In fact, Cruz was perhaps the only guy who had a worse game than Barnett. Cruz picked a bad night to have a bad night: in addition to misplaying the two crucial flies, leading to two Yankees runs, he also had two bad at-bats in key situations; and ran into a dumb third out at third.

Francisco almost gave Cruz a run for his money. After giving up the monster round-tripper to Thames, he followed a strikeout of Alex Rodriguez with two walks, and only escaped further damage by coaxing a double-play grounder from Austin Kearns to end the inning.

And that leads to the heart of this piece: dumb luck.

In the face of a collapse that saw the Yankees score six unanswered runs to claim a 7-6 victory, it will be easy to tear Texas apart.

It will be easy to echo Barnett and decry Lee’s performance. (Isn’t beating the Yankees in big games what the reason the Rangers acquired him?)

It will be easy to shred Nelson Cruz. (His woeful Wednesday was more or less the polar opposite of Murphy’s triumphant Tuesday; no doubt Cruz’s critics are questioning his grit and Good Face.)

It will be easy to overlook the fact that Neftali Feliz was on the hook for the loss due to a walk, a pop-up that David Murphy couldn’t run down, a slow roller that eluded the gloves of both Feliz and Guzman, and a sharper grounder off Alexi Ogando that evaded Young’s reach to his right. (I’m tired of writing about Young’s defense. That Guzman is a complete disappointment, however, I will keep mentioning. Time for Andrés Blanco to draw some starts.)

It will be easy to rip Young, Hamilton, and Guerrero for failing to bring Andrus home after his leadoff triple in the bottom of the ninth. (Will anyone remember that Young’s bloop to shallow right field was literally an inch from tying the game?)

And, no doubt, it will be easy to trash Ron Washington for his bullpen management the last two nights. (The fact that Mike Maddux has significant say in relief moves will likely go largely unremarked upon. So will the fact that every one of the moves was defensible.)

Those are all understandable reactions. But they will all emerge from the same place: a relative lack of appreciation for the randomness inherent in a game like last night’s — or even any night’s.

Tom Tango recently wrote a fascinating piece about this at the Inside the Book blog. In it, he notes, "when you look at the won-lost records of baseball teams, 60% of that is the talent and other vagaries of the participants, and 40% of that is luck."

It’s worth reading the comments on Tango’s work, since they suggest 60/40 may not be quite the right split, and provide some possible orrections. But Tango’s conclusion is indisputable. It’s worth repeating here: "Sports, life actually, is played by unique persons. But luck, timing, good/bad breaks plays a huge role in the outcomes. Not everything is luck. But not everything is talent either."

It’s often hard for us to recognize just how much luck plays into major-league baseball. We see how freakishly talented the players are — especially on teams like the Rangers and Yankees — and we forget that there’s an amazing amount of randomness in even the highest level of play.

Cold comfort after a killer loss? Sure. Will any of this make you feel better this morning? Probably not. And maybe it shouldn’t. There was a lot of bad Rangers baseball last night. But there was also a lot of bad luck.

So maybe this will help: as Texas continues to move inexorably toward its first AL West crown in over a decade, it’s worth remembering that even the occasional crushing defeat has a silver lining. For 19 innings of baseball, the Rangers went toe-to-toe with the most talented team in baseball — and they were a couple strokes of luck from not just one, but two amazing wins. (Yes, that could be framed another way. This is the happy helpful bit, savvy?)

The playoffs are going to be truly outstanding. Grab your popcorn.

Reader Comments (50)

The ground rule double was on hamilton at least as much as it was on cruz. Also, the official scorer made a mistake, only 3 of Lee's runs should have been earned.

August 12, 2010 at 6:21 AM | Unregistered CommenterMatt

I blame myself. We started coughing up the game the minute I turned on the TV to watch it. At first, I just turned the volume down, then I turned it off completely after about 10 minutes. It was too late. The "John in Clearwater is watching the Rangers on TV" curse was already clearly in control of the outcome.

August 12, 2010 at 6:37 AM | Unregistered CommenterJohn in Clearwater

CRAP !!! Games like last night's keep me awake long after I should be asleep ... replaying every crucial moment ... every chance to alter the outcome that went unseized ... and still ... "that's baseball" ...

In no particular order, here are a few thoughts on this "morning after" ...

- the Rangers offense's futility when having an opponent ... any opponent ... down and ripe for the "kill" is maddening ... frustrating to the highest level ... and yet, in a way, games like last night's might be "just what the Doctor ordered", in the long run ... keeps just enough "gristle in the steak", so to speak ... the team is having a great season ... no doubt about it ... but loses like last night's will keep the "fire in the belly" ... and give the veteran players an opportunity to focus even more on the "one game at a time" mantra ...

- Frankie Francisco either gets his act together ... or is going to be supplanted once again ... and removed from anything resembling a high-stakes 8th inning situation ... his demeanor on the mound is alarming ... he appears to pitch without any fire ... any intensity ... any "passion" ... he almost seems to be pitching scared ... and no championship team can have that out of a pitcher charged with getting a lead safely to the 9th inning and the closer ... that he escaped the 8th inning only allowing 1 run is a miracle ... however, given the stakes being leveraged on each remaining opportunity, what can the Rangers really do? If the Rangers were in any other position, I'd have no doubt that the team would have begun looking at "other options" awhile ago ... but now, in the midst of a legitimate pennant chase ... it's apparent that the team, while not thrilled with FF's lack of production, doesn't feel comfortable entrusting these situations to anyone else ... and this is not solely on Ron Washington ... if he felt he had any better, more dependable option, he'd use it ... he doesn't ... at least not for the balance of this season.
These situations call for a "veteran presence" ... right now, that's Frankie ... whatever is the problem, FF needs to "fix it" ...

- The Yankees showed, once again, how a team wins these kinds of games ... patient approach at the plate, taking advantage of opportunities that present themselves, capitalizing on your opponents mistakes, relentless pressure on the other team's pitcher(s) ... and execution.

This is the point where, if the Rangers are to indeed become a Championship-caliber club, they must develop the "nerves of steel" required to navigate through the high-pressure, high-stakes atmosphere that they find themselves in now ... they have positioned themselves well for this chance ... it's time to seize it!

I hope that, before the start of Friday night's game, if Chuck Greenberg takes the mound to throw out the first pitch ... he'll take a moment, while thanking the fans for their immense support and faith in the team through all of the past 18 months of turmoil and uncertainty ... and thank the players for all that they have done, to this point, to position this franchise for its future ... and then charge them with "finishing what they've started" ...

Games like last night's drive me nuts ... winnable games that slip away ... for a myriad of reasons ... and yet, come Friday night, I'll be back ... waiting to see how the rest of this story plays out.

I'm a fan ... what else could I do?

August 12, 2010 at 6:49 AM | Unregistered CommenterThe View from the Swamp ...

As Jerry Jones once said; "Let's quit BSing each other."

Get to popcorn ready! Turds and golden nuggets await!

August 12, 2010 at 7:05 AM | Unregistered CommenterK-Mart

Well said, Josh.

August 12, 2010 at 8:06 AM | Unregistered CommenterSAFan

Good read Josh, thanks!

It's funny actually. After drunkenly exclaiming to my friends that if the Yankees came back to tie and win this game that I would slit my wrists and throw myself out of my 34th floor apartment window....i ended up feeling like, meh...whatever. It's August, it's the Rangers. Hang on, boys.

August 12, 2010 at 8:45 AM | Unregistered Commenterdub

Lee was a warrior out there. "He's not Superman" is spot on. Nadel nails it, as usual.

Hamilton and Cruz were equally culpable. One of them had to take charge out there. Each of them did not. Cruz needs the baserunning "talk". He's been successful in that 3rd base steal quite a bit, but that doesn't make it the right play for the situation at the time.

Bullpen management was fine. Except for having Francisco on pace for 75 appearances or so.

Gardners ball falls in because defense was playing deeper in no-doubles alignment.

It's incredulous to me that Young continues to play 3rd base from a standing position. Why hasn't Washington fixed this for him. I believe he's got the skill set (though I think his offseason workouts this year need to focus on quick-twitch muscles) to play better over there but he is just setting up wrong and consequently too many balls are getting past/under him.

Absolutely frustrating to waste 9th inning leadoff triple. Easy (and understandable, maybe) to rip MY, Josh, and Vlad, but credit has to be given to Rivera, who "made pitches".

Hard work, focus, perseverance, and execution lend themselves to being "Lucky".

August 12, 2010 at 8:51 AM | Unregistered CommenterA Stephens

First, Guzman can not be on the field. He has no idea what he is doing right now.

Second, Lee was great our defense was not. Cruz did have a bad game, but these things do happen.

It's one game, no reason to panic.

August 12, 2010 at 8:53 AM | Unregistered CommenterRon

Unfortunately, Cruz is a victim of his own making. His solid and often outstanding play in right field makes it harder to accept when he misplays three tough, but makable plays. And the attempted steal of third? What was that?

But, if you consider that the Rangers had a more bad luck than the Yanks (I think), and played well under their capabilities and still lost by only one, then ....it still s....ks. But, maybe there's hope in the playoffs.

August 12, 2010 at 8:57 AM | Unregistered CommenterStuart

Dave Barnett is simpy not what we are used to around here.

Eric Nadel sets the bar high.

How do I apply for that job??????

August 12, 2010 at 9:07 AM | Unregistered CommenterRon

this was one of those games that help a team grow. Frustrating? sure, but there are a couple of things, at least, that come out of this two game set. One, the Rangers KNOW they can beat the Yankees. Two, the Yankees KNOW that the Rangers are coming and when they beat Rivera in the ninth in the first game and almost pull it off again in the second game, the realities begin to seed themselves in your mind.

you could see the relief on the faces of the Yankees as they left the field last night. They know there is a new kid on the block who isn't afraid of them or intimidated by their pinstripes any more...

August 12, 2010 at 9:08 AM | Unregistered CommenterWillyMo

Can Cantu play 2B? Please, someone get Guzman off the field. I guess we are hoping that the law of averages will kick in at some point.

This was a good series for the Rangers. Yes they can compete with the Yanks. The Yanks can say that they had a few players out, but so do we. Ian is out and Vlady might as well be out too. We desperately need some production from the cleanup spot.

August 12, 2010 at 9:14 AM | Unregistered Commenterslider

@John in Clearwater - FINALLY! Someone else jinxed the team by turning on the TV. It's usually me but I was tied up last night and missed most of the game.
I don't believe in luck but I do believe in jinxing someonew/something... is this bass akward or what?

I like the point Joey makes in that the Rangers pretty much manhandled the Yankess for most of the 2 game split... and really, would any of us have been upset with a split going into it?

The Rangers need to re-group and get ready to put more distance between them and the Angels and A's. Anything less than a 6 game lead is going to be nerve-wracking.

Oh, BTW - I don't care for Barnett... but he sometimes needs to play devil's advocate.. they can't both be homers all the time.

August 12, 2010 at 9:21 AM | Unregistered CommenterPabloesque

As a big Ranger fan I agree that we can beat the Yanks but still a couple of things come to my mind. We didn't face any of their top 3 starters in Sabathia, Pettite, and Hughes, while we put up Lee (got robbed of a win) and C.J Wilson. The other thing is that they did not have their red-hot Mark Teixeira in the lineup. I think we can beat the Yankees but I really dont want to have to play them in the playoffs.

August 12, 2010 at 9:31 AM | Unregistered CommenterJake

I could only watch the game until the 6th and followed it from a distance on Gameday after that. When I turned the TV off, I was mentally composing a post about how much younger and faster the Rangers played than the Yankees (thiking of Young's slide back into 3b that keyed the big inning).

But then the bullpen and bad D gave it all back. It is hard to stomach having someone as fast as Elvis on 3b with no outs and the best three hitters on the team being unable to score him.

This too, will pass. This team has given me many of my biggest thrills as a Rangers fan (going back to the mid 70s) and some of my lowest lows. There will be more of both, I am sure.

Nadel is the best. I can't say that often enough. He has an unmatched feel for the game. Nothing EVER catches him so off guard that he can't describe it. He is also even-handed enough to be fair.

I hope Eric keeps doing his job until he is 100 yrs old. I can't think of anyone who could do it better.

August 12, 2010 at 9:32 AM | Unregistered CommenterSpanky68

Jake, I agree with you but we have to stay positive. I understand that we faced their 2 worst starters this year, and they didn't have their best hitter in the lineup but we are still good. Also, I do not want to face the Yanks in the postseason, I would easily rather face the Rays.

August 12, 2010 at 9:38 AM | Unregistered CommenterMatt

I'm glad to read this. I was thinking last night that there would be some negative post on BBTIA about the game. Crazy stuff is going to happen over 162 games. Balls will find holes, hits won't be timely, pitchers will hang a breaking ball, etc... It sucks that it happened last night, but hey, that's the game, baby. Inches. A true game of inches. What if the ball that went past Molina had jumped up a few more inches and he snagged it? What if Nelly hadn't over run the ball that he slid for by an inch leading to the Jeter triple? What if Young's 9th inning hit found grass instead of glove? Settlle down, everybody.

August 12, 2010 at 9:48 AM | Unregistered CommenterRob Washingtons moustache

3 things:

1. The Yankees are a veteran team comprised of guys who know how to win under pressure, and they are not going to just roll over for the new kids on the block.

2. Texas looks terrible offensively. Don't know if it's just a collective slump, or that they're missing Kinsler, or if it's a product of the long, exhausting season, or if it's the heat - or all those things... But whatever it is, they need to get over it quickly and get back on a winning streak. LAA is not that far behind us, and we still play a bunch of games against them.

3. Last night's game was further evidence that baseball players, regardless of talent, are human beings, not machines. Neftali Feliz, arguably the Rookie of the Year, is going to have games like that occasionally - hopefully he learns something from it and gets a little wiser and better.

August 12, 2010 at 9:49 AM | Unregistered CommenterAndy Kaufman Lives

Great stuff, Josh.

Totally agreed.

1) Barnett really has to go.
2) The long past defensible focus on ERA (and ER) as the primary stat for most fans and media has led to this being one of Lee's worst outings of the year... when it was certainly one of his best. He was dominant. Nelson Cruz just took the night off.

August 12, 2010 at 10:17 AM | Unregistered CommenterRangers100

LOL why are you guys wasting your time falling in love with Lee? You are not going to marry him, this is just a summer fling. He will be playing for the Yankees with his good friend C.C. from Cleveland next year. If you guys think that he will choose a club that will give him less money and a club that also has a smaller chance to win a ring year in and year out... you are dreaming. Don't get me wrong though, I think you guys have an awesome team this year and I hope you give the Rays hell in the ALDS :)

August 12, 2010 at 10:19 AM | Unregistered CommenterFaiaz

Anyone know what kind of contract Barnett's under? His hiring was understandable at the time. He's good on TV and good doing football. Nice voice. But night after night, he repeatedly displays a terrible understanding of the nuances, rules, and flow of the game.

And Nadel, of course, is the gold standard. What a blessing to have his expertise and enthusiasm for these many years!

August 12, 2010 at 10:52 AM | Unregistered CommenterRockwall Tim

Last night was maybe the most disappointed Ranger games since the late '90's (Friday night rain-soaked-Feliz-blewthe game and then no fireworks game against the Orioles, might be the exception). Agreed that sometimes $tuff happens, but the Rangers should have won last night, and it also gave room for the August heat excuses to be regenerated.
I liked Dave Barnett up until he started announcing Ranger games. He just does not have a good idea of what he is talking about.
The main thing is the Rangers just need to get better, the relievers need to learn to throw strikes,and shorten their innings, and the hitters need to be more patient with a runner at third and no outs.

August 12, 2010 at 11:06 AM | Unregistered CommenterCmaverick

One of the greatest things about the MLB At Bat iPhone app is being able to switch back and forth between the Rangers radio team and the opponents radio team. For the Dave Barnett innings, I always switch to the opponent radio broadcast. Barnett simply can't articulate what is happening in a baseball game.

I'm a huge Josh Hamilton fan and think he's a very athletic and capable outfielder. But one reason why I don't like him in CF is he doesn't command the outfield like a CF should. The CF should be the one to take command on any ball where there is any doubt between him and another outfielder. Cruz gave up on the ground rule double, but Hamilton was close enough to have caught the ball as well. Hamilton should've caugh that.

While the OF defense has been very good, I often see them suffer from a lack of communication which results in a lot of close calls, or in this case, missed balls.

Just so many things to nitpick, but I can't get too down on this team. Last night was awful just like the previous night was great. Rangers just need to get more consistent against good teams - not necessarily winning every game, but at least performing consistently.

And yes, Guzman has royally sucked. Would much rather see Blanco in there evey night - defensively and offensively.

August 12, 2010 at 11:09 AM | Unregistered CommenterTommyworld

After dutifully pulling my hair out after the game, I took a deep breath and chilled. Certainly not the way you'd want to lose. But it is a (harsh) reminder that nothing is given and nothing is to be taken for granted during a pennant chase. The Yanks' patience at the plate in the final three innings was something to behold, and hopefully the Rangers took notice. Time to move on.

However, I do need to comment about Francisco. The guy is a streaker (well, not in the most literal sense). He started rather badly this season, had a terrific stretch after losing the closer role to Feliz, and now he seems to be going the other way again. Two things: Ogando should be considered for the 8th inning role, and Scheppers can't get here fast enough. Even with the Cliff Lee "breathers" over the last month, the bullpen still needs some reinforcement. A live arm like Scheppers fits the bill.

August 12, 2010 at 11:20 AM | Unregistered CommenterDa Blade

I can't listen to Rangers baseball on the radio anymore because of Dave Barnett, he is just horrible. I miss Victor Rojas!

August 12, 2010 at 11:29 AM | Unregistered Commentermark b

Assuming they make the playoffs. That is not written in stone.

August 12, 2010 at 11:32 AM | Unregistered CommenterMaggie

@slider

You are seeing the far less than the law of averages at 2B... and your solution is exactly what is needed. Sadly there is absolutely no performance at the plate to mitigate the weak fielding.

When CD wasn't hitting, at least he gave us all-star level play at first base...something that we haven't seen since, btw. Line drives blowing holes through the guy with the long glove are agonizing. Not to mention off- line and/or high throws from third base going into foul territory. ...names discreetly left unmentioned. Those things don't just cost games, they cost pennants... even more than a .200 batting average.

August 12, 2010 at 11:49 AM | Unregistered Commenterdiznpeewee

Great article, but please understand. I don't ride the Ron Washington Bandwagon . Hindsight is 20-20 but Nolan and Texas Rangers managment keep forgetting to have their eyes checked. The game was mismanaged. Yes it was hot. It's also hot in Florida, AZ and St. Louiis. Cliff Lee cannot be expected to always be the workhorse without defensive/offensive back up. I'm not giving up. At least our players now know they can beat the Yankees and better yet, the Yankees now know the Rangers can beat them...and Mariano Rivera....Ian needs to stay healthy. Cruz made some errors last night, but its obvious by his actions he realizes we need more aggressive base running. If you agree with me about Wash, please read my posterous article today..more a cleansing of my dispirited soul than anything else, but there are key points to be made...especially since I'm a woman :)

August 12, 2010 at 12:46 PM | Unregistered CommenterGaylejack

Frankie Francisco either gets his act together ... or is going to be supplanted once again ... and removed from anything resembling a high-stakes 8th inning situation ... his demeanor on the mound is alarming ... he appears to pitch without any fire ... any intensity ... any "passion" ... he almost seems to be pitching scared ... and no championship team can have that out of a pitcher charged with getting a lead safely to the 9th inning and the closer ... that he escaped the 8th inning only allowing 1 run is a miracle ... however, given the stakes being leveraged on each remaining opportunity, what can the Rangers really do? If the Rangers were in any other position, I'd have no doubt that the team would have begun looking at "other options" awhile ago

2010 AL relievers (xFIP)
1. Joaquin Benoit (2.20)
5. Oliver (2.81)
8. Francisco (3.30)
9. Mariano Rivera (3.31)
17. Feliz (3.62)
34. O'Day (4.20)

August 12, 2010 at 1:19 PM | Unregistered CommenterRangers100

@ diznpeewee "When CD wasn't hitting, at least he gave us all-star level play at first base...something that we haven't seen since, btw."

Where do people constantly get this idea that Chris Davis was a high-caliber 1B defensively? He was alright defensively, but quit giving him undue credit just because you read somewhere that he was so great.

August 12, 2010 at 1:22 PM | Unregistered CommenterPaul Smith

@Paul Smith,

Are you sure they read it somewhere? Maybe they watched the games and saw the way he played the position. Maybe those that don't think Davis was a good defensive first baseman read it somewhere like a web site with defensive metrics. Metrics which aren't reliable with less than 3 years worth of data.

August 12, 2010 at 1:46 PM | Unregistered CommenterRA

Did I say "look at the web site(s) with defensive metrics, they're reliable with less than 3 years worth of data"? No.

I watched the games too. I don't care if he can do the splits.

August 12, 2010 at 1:57 PM | Unregistered CommenterPaul Smith

Then you have a difference of opinion with the majority. From the games I watched, he showed a lot of range and there has been a pretty big dropoff. He does do the splits well and has some impressive scoops. But he's got a lot more going for him -- defensively at least.

August 12, 2010 at 1:59 PM | Unregistered CommenterRA

@ Paul Smith

The fella on the radio gets at least one thing right..."Watch the Game!!". You can't be busy with the machines calculating xWAR and pitches evaporated,etc. and fully recognize the value of a truly outstanding fielder. I've missed seeing, maybe, one game this season (on TV), and I never saw him cost us a game with his glove. There have been three, maybe four, games gone by the way at 1B, since Smoak, Ryan Garko, Arias, Cantu and Moreland have filled in.

That being said, I like the stats also...but a chart or box score has never beaten the beauty of watching a baseball game, with understanding and anticipation of what's happening on the field.

August 12, 2010 at 2:03 PM | Unregistered Commenterdiznpeewee

Truely one of the best pieces I read on this site... Great work, this is the kind of stuff that is so unbelievably refreshing to read after I pick up the paper and see what basically amounts too "Cliff Lee cant take the heat and wont resign with us" after a single loss... I hope you continue to write articles like this that are refreshing and dont make my brain hurt with way too many numbers ( I love em, but they can be a beating after a while)...

And Eric Nadel is one of those people that just has an incredible knack for what he does, there are people you meet in life that are the same way, but Nadel is the one I listened to every night since I was 7, I have so much love for the man. Anyways, it does seem like Barnett has almost forced Nadel to act and say different things this year, I almost wish Nadel went partnerless.

I totally, 100% agree with the way luck contributes so stinking much to a game like this. Its really the second thought I had after the game, the first, shear dissapointment, the second a reminder of every game I've watched, especially baseball games, has trained me to see this now. Anyways, I loved so many parts of last night game, that even in dissapointment, baseaball is a beautiful and joyous game to watch, especially when my favorite of favorite teams is playing ball like this.

oh yea, and Cliff Lee is a friggin beast, the 11 Ks 0BBs is all i look at in that box score.

August 12, 2010 at 2:06 PM | Unregistered Commenterblalock84

@RA: While UZR tends to normalize (somewhat) after two full seasons of data, it's still far from reliable even with enormous amounts of information. On top of that, UZR, +/-, Total Zone, and any other defensive metric that's out there right now are all horrible at rating C or 1B defense. When it comes to rating first basemen, the eyeball is really the only way to go.

August 12, 2010 at 2:20 PM | Unregistered CommenterDave H

I feel like I'm on crazy pills. I never once mentioned fielding stats in the case of Davis. Why is it assumed I'm basing all of this off UZR ratings? I understand their limitations, especially inside of 3 years and especially at the 1B position.

"Then you have a difference of opinion with the majority". Well, that doesn't make me wrong. The majority once thought the world was flat, remember. The majority still believes Derek Jeter to be a great fielder.

This argument is not worth continuing, we obviously differ in opinion here. Perhaps I have blinders on because Chris Davis frustrated me in so many ways. Guzman is struggling, but he did line out to center in one of his late AB's, and he's a better fielder than Cantu by far at 2B. I just don't know if I trust Andres Blanco with that much playing time.

August 12, 2010 at 2:23 PM | Unregistered CommenterPaul Smith

True enough, Dave H. There are plenty of problems with defensive metrics and I don't consider them to be terribly reliable even with 3 years of data. But I was giving them the benefit of the doubt for the proponents sake. I'm agnostic on them at this point myself.

I was just having some fun with Paul Smith because he thought the only way people could think Davis was any good was if they read it somewhere. The opposite is most likely the case.

August 12, 2010 at 2:27 PM | Unregistered CommenterRA

What is the opposite?

August 12, 2010 at 2:34 PM | Unregistered CommenterPaul Smith

Paul Smith,

I would say that most of the people that don't think Davis is a good 1B have probably been looking at UZR. I just decided to take you on about people basing their judgment of Davis as a good first baseman on their reading it somewhere. I thought you probably had been looking at UZR.

Yes, we disagree. And it doesn't make you wrong. I think he is pretty good defensively. Not Pete O'Brien or Texeira good but pretty darn good.

You might be right and I might be wrong. But I didn't read it anywhere, and I'm glad you didn't either. Peace be with you, brother.

August 12, 2010 at 2:39 PM | Unregistered CommenterRA

@Paul Smith

I don't know if you're familiar with the term "face palm", but you just made me do it.

August 12, 2010 at 2:39 PM | Unregistered CommenterRob Washingtons moustache

haha alright fair enough

August 12, 2010 at 2:39 PM | Unregistered CommenterPaul Smith

WHY DO WE KEEP PLAYING GUZMAN. BLANCOS OR ARIAS EITHER ONE CAN OUT PERFORM HIM ANY DAY.
THE WAY I FEEL ABOUT BARNETT IS IF YOU'RE NOT FOR US THEN YOU ARE AGAINST US!!!
GREAT ARTICLES AND I STILL THINK LEE IS WORTH WHAT WE GAVE FOR HIM AND WE WILL ALL SEE THAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE SEASON AND PLAYOFFS.
I'M READY TO SEE STROP AND SCHEPPERS IN THE MAJORS BECAUSE I THINK THEY ARE FRESH AND CAN HELP THE BULL PEN.
I MISS BENOIT!

August 12, 2010 at 3:21 PM | Unregistered CommenterBill M

ARE WE IN RALLY CAP MODE ALREADY? I FEEL SO ANGRY!

August 12, 2010 at 3:31 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhilly

WHY ARE WE YELLING?!

August 12, 2010 at 3:38 PM | Unregistered CommenterRob Washingtons moustache

The play of the game? When A-Rod (A-Fraud) is caught looking at a clear STRIKE THREE right at the knees on the outside corner. The umpire calls "ball." NO way. A-Rod knows he's done, but instead gets another shot and gets the RBI that made it 6-2.

Second problem? Where was the relief pitching last night? Pathetic. Just pathetic. Francisco couldn't hit a barn driving a tractor. He has no control.

August 12, 2010 at 4:43 PM | Unregistered Commenterjwb

Listen, if Guzman is disgruntled, or giving a lack-luster effort, he needs to be released. Don't allow him to poison this clubhouse and young players like Elvis. He had a bad rep several years ago... and it sounds like he's a spoiled baby that didn't get his way... CUT HIM!!!

August 12, 2010 at 5:09 PM | Unregistered CommenterPabloesque

There's a quote that goes along with Tango's work quite nicely:

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one third of your games. No matter how bad you are, you're going to win one third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference."
-Tommy Lasorda

On nights like last night when everything seems to be working again you, you simply have to toss that game in the "unwinnable third" and move on.

August 12, 2010 at 10:58 PM | Unregistered CommenterJohnathan

Replace Barnett with a stuffed bear.

Winners don't win because of luck. They win because they planned, prepared, and execute better. Luck is just the excuse of wishers and losers to account for factors they didn't include in the above.

August 12, 2010 at 11:59 PM | Unregistered Commenterwindingmywatch

@Jonathan ... "you simply have to toss that game in the "unwinnable third" and move on".

Have to disagree. You only believe that if you believe that NYY out planned, out prepared, and out executed TEX. I don't think you can say we know that. With the number of mental and controllable physical errors TEX made ... the game was theirs to win.

August 13, 2010 at 12:03 AM | Unregistered Commenterwindingmywatch
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