David Murphy, Yankee Killer
David Murphy records the game-winning hit against Mariano Rivera on Tuesday, Aug. 10th.If a hitter is good enough and/or has just the right combination of skills to play in the majors for a very long time, and is fortunate enough to have the high-leverage stars align perfectly in his favor often enough, and is opportunistic enough to cash in on such chances whenever they fall into his lap, he might have a game like David Murphy had last night once every 2-3 full seasons. Since baseball integrated in 1947, the average has been more along the lines of once every 4-5 full seasons, and I can't even begin to number all of the major league hitters who came and went through the league without ever pulling it off even once.
What I'm speaking of boils down to win probability added (WPA), or, as Tom Tango has described it on more than one occasion, "the statistic that tells a story." Because last night, David Murphy drew two walks, cranked a go-ahead home run, and laced a walk-off single against the greatest relief pitcher in baseball history en route to amassing a single-game WPA of .576 * -- something that I would likely not spend quite so much time focusing on if not for the fact that Murphy, of all people, singlehandedly took over a game against the reigning World Series-champion Yankees. The rarity of that number rightly reflects his dominance.
[Dating back to the 1950 season (which is as far back as WPA statistics have been tracked to date), there have been 1,972,274 player games where a batter has logged at least three plate appearances in a single game. Of that number, only 3,320 -- or one out of every 594 games -- have featured a single-game WPA greater than or equal to .570.]
Year in and year out, David Murphy has epitomized the league-average player. He can hit for some average, but not to an excessive degree. He has some pop, and perhaps even a surprising amount of it for a slender-framed outfielder whose entire game -- from his swing motion to his gait to his manner of throwing -- I've always internally thought of as "mechanical," but never has and never will be a huge power threat. He's solid enough defensively when tucked away in a corner outfield spot, but isn't anything special in that regard and isn't a viable center field option. He's not going to be Paul O'Neill or Rusty Greer (comps which always struck me as not only excessively optimistic, but also unfair), and optimally you look at him more as a very good fourth outfielder on a first-division ballclub than a starting-level outfielder.
That isn't presently the case, because Julio Borbon went ice-cold and Murphy caught fire and is now, for all intents and purposes, the Rangers' starting left fielder; the only certainty about this arrangement is that it's relatively short-lived, because eventually Josh Hamilton will land in left field again out of deference to Hamilton's durability -- or seeming lack thereof -- and Murphy will again find himself relegated to a lesser role. But the mere fact that he does hint at being more than a fourth outfielder from time to time is a very nice thing, because World Series-caliber teams like Texas feature capable role players like Murphy. And sometimes, like last night, they end up making a considerable difference.
Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (40)
It is sad that a man that everyone I know likes has a career high, something to look back on for the rest of his life, and you trash him publicly the next day.....sad. To paraphrase; David Murphy had an extremely rare game but he will be back on the bench soon. Sad. Is the news day that slow that you can't find someone else to attack?
I wrote that Murphy (a) dominated the Yankees last night, (b) had a career game and (c) is a very good fourth outfielder on a WS-caliber team, and then outlined the reality that him starting on an everyday basis is not a permanent arrangement but that's okay because he's a nice role player who's going to keep logging decent playing time and perhaps make an impact in the playoffs. Somehow you contorted this into me "trashing" Murphy. That's remarkable.
That. Was. Sweet!
Early on, the Rangers made just enough plays to overcome some sloppy lapses in the field (nerves?) ... pitched well enough to keep themselves in the game ... I'm guessing that part of CJ's game-plan going in was to do things to keep the Yankee hitters from getting any rhythm against him ... and thus the occasional "stare-down" routine on the mound ...
But what it ultimately came down to was clutch performances by Murphy, Molina, Wilson and Feliz ... the 10th inning execution by Young and Hamilton ... the ability of Vlad to hit the ball hard enough, and in the right spot, to force A-Roid to have to "lay out" to stop it, leaving only a close play at 1B as his only option ... and the steel nerves of Murphy to be able to focus in a high intensity, "playoff-like atmosphere" situation ... and deliver ...
However this season ultimately ends, the future of this team, and through them, this organization ... is looking much, much better ...
Now, gentlemen ... no letup ... Cliff on the mound tonight, against Vasquez ... on national tv ... at home ... who will it be tonight ... who steps up tonight and keeps this thing going ... who takes it upon themselves to be "the guy" ...
The energy around this organization is electric ... keep it going, Ranger Fans ... make the other teams "uncomfortable" to come here and play us ... fuel this group of players to be something more than most of us thought could be possible just months ago ...
DO IT !!!
I think Andy didn't get enough sleep last night. He seems cranky. Most MLB players would love to have a game like that in such a big game. I think your descripton of Murphy is perfect.
Three errors made Wilson throw more pitches than he needed, but I'll take a win against the Yanks any day. I don't care if they weren't playing Tex, Posada, and Cano. You beat Rivera and it's a pretty special night. And make no mistake, Murphy was the man. I can only follow on the ESPN ticker, but I just assumed that the Rangers would lose when I hit the bed. It was a nice surprise to wake up to a win this morning. If the Rangers can stay eight up through the Tampa series, I can only assume that their schedule gets easier (surely it can't get tougher?). Good day to be a Ranger fan!
I didn't see it as trashing him at all. Quite the opposite actually.
I think, just my opinion mind you, that this is the difference in how #s guys and eyeball guys view the same events on the field. Eyeball guys, me, enjoy the moment, not really looking for perspectives or historical comparisons. #s guys need/want to analyze and break events down, in search of context I guess, I don't know. Not good or bad in my book, we're just wired differently.
I have no idea if WPA includes defense, but the play he made to cut Swisher down at the plate was obviously huge in terms of game outcome.
Murphy had a great game last night and will be a huge piece of this Ranger team going forward.......now my question is why does Washington keep playing Cristian Guzman.......the guy is not producing offensively since he agreed to come to Texas after he said no at first. Send him back to the Nationals and get our two minor leaguers back! Play Andres Blanco at 2B!!
Great point Jamey - Murphy has never been known for his arm, but that was a pinpoint bullet snagged by a still-elite defensive catcher.
One thing I've noticed off and on, and can't help but bringing up here, is that Murphy seems like a huge second-half player. I remember last year he "started" out slow, but caught fire in July and posted up nearly exactly the same numbers as 2008, when he did the same thing.
I live in Houston so I don't get to see many games, but can someone explain to me why they think Murph is not much of a defensive guy? Ever since a throw to 2nd at an Astros game a couple years ago (in which many Astros fans were applauding in appreciation) I have been amazed at this guys arm ability. Seems to me, and mind you I only get to see about 15-20 games a year, that Murph is excellent at D...only being trumped by Hamilton. Murph has decent speed, a great arm (at least it seems) and can layout with the best of them. Btw, I'm pretty sure I heard that Cruz was learning how to layout as opposed to making sliding catches... How is it that he is considered so much better when he can't even pull off a layout catch well? Anyways, just tell me I don't watch enough games if that's all it is.
That was pure awesomeness, an unbelievable game for Murphy, just fantastic and thrilling to watch. Can't wait for tonight, which is what I'm saying most nights this year.
I remember when the trade was done, Norm Hitzges basically dismissed Murphy as a throw-in part of the trade, and Norm wasn't the only one. I have watched Murph go through a terrible slump that seemed to last forever last year and he handled it with remarkable humility, perseverance, and determination. That is when you find out what kind of person you are. David Murphy may be part of a trade someday, I suppose that is inevitable with a fourth outfielder, but if it happens we will be losing much more than a selfless teammate, consummate professional, and valuable contributor - we will be losing the chance for young kids to watch a true role model, a Godly man, and my favorite Ranger play every day, the way baseball was meant to be played. He was my favorite when he was slumping and he was my favorite last night as he pumped his fist rounding first base - not showing anyone up, just busting out in the joy of playing the greatest game in a spectacular way.
Not to focus on the negative, but can someone explain the logic of pulling Ogando for Francisco in the 8th? And saying that Frankie is the "8th inning guy" does not qualify as an answer. Ogando was strong, effective and intimidating in the 7th. Why can't we simply go with the hot hand? It's not as though Ogando has been overworked lately.
You gotta love Murphy. He has been so CLUTCH for the Rangers while they have been struggling to score. Hats off to David and the entire team. A solid 5-5 stretch while a number of players are slumping.
Does anybody know where his WPA ranks among single game leaders for this season? Tried searching on fangraphs but couldnt find game totals, just yearly cum. totals. Just curious where this ranks on best performances of the year, and that doesnt even account for him gunning down Swisher.
Can we give some love to Neftali? Remarkable 2 innings of work last night. His 10th inning last night was exactly what you needed in that situation, quick and easy.
I think the reason for pulling Orgando in favor of Frank-Frank was that the Rangers were coming off and off day and since it is Cliffmass eve they might not need many relievers tomorrow.
We have the Molina game (become more amazed at his triple (very slow) and nimble hands every time I watch him), the Murph game, Cliff Lee games, Hamilton games, CJ games...love this team.
Granted, I went a little deeper into it last month since I wasn't yet born....but Murphy sure is starting to look alot like a Tom Grieve circa 1975.
i was at the game last night. stlil amazed by how many yankees fans there are at our games. i'm sure it's not just us but it seemed liek a good 25-35% were yankees fans last night.
I'm worried too about how starting Murphy means Hamilton has to play CF. You figure you want to be careful with him and keep him as healthy as possible if we're going to the playoffs and grinding through an extra 5-to-however many games. I think whatever happens, Hammy is going to be really beaten up by the end of the season.
@gators100 - I was wondering that myself. Frankie has been so hot/cold this year and as a result, Wash is put in a tight spot. Had Frakie been on, he's as difficult to hit as anyone in baseball. When he's off, he's horrible...
Regarding Murphy - Part of me thinks that if Murphy was a regular (he has the lowest # of ABs amongst regular/starters but the highest amongst "bench" guys), he would be exposed.
However, he was a 1st round draft pick for a reason... and I believe that if he was in the lineup every night, he would deliver. With 600+ ABs, I could see him with a line like .265 /18 HR/63 RBI / and a .350 OBP. Something semi- avarage... but still very productive.
I worry about Hammy in CF. I think this is a bad idea. I realize it's out of necessity but if Borbon's going to sit, bring up a guy like Gentry that can play CF and give us speed on the bases.
@gators I had the same conversation about bringing in Frankie with the guy I was watching the game with. You hear people from the game say relievers like to know their roles and so if someone is the 8th inning guy, it helps them prepare and stay in a routine. But as an outsider, I saw no reason to take out a dominating reliever, with Cliffmas and then an offday, in favor of Frankie. I feel like the more relievers you bring in, the more likely one of them is going to have a bad day and possibly cost you the game.
Man... Andy put on his cranky pants this morning!
Love me some Murph. Like Josh Lewin's phrase too, "You don't mess with the Murph!" Not all that creative but oh so true the last several days.
@Jamey: defense is not included in FanGraphs WPA, no -- so, yes, Murphy's night was even more impressive than the stat indicates.
I hope teams continue to intentionally walk the guy in front of Murphy. It seems to fire him up a bit. A few games back, Cruz was walked and Murphy hit one out.... then he admired it for a brief moment. It was very un-Murphy like, but I loved it.
Although I'm not on the Murphy for Cooperstown bandwagon, I do think something should be pointed out about his year-to-date stats: During the first few months of the season, most of his at bats came against tough left-handers, while Borbon got to sit those games out. He didn't get many easy hitting assignments, and he wasn't in the lineup with any consistency, which made things even harder on him. He has definitely been a team player and "taken one for the team" in his hitting stats as a result.
I had no problem with Francisico coming on in the eigth. That's his role on the team. Ogando had also been struggling just a tad in his prior appearances. Francisco gave up a homer to a guy that has 600 of them. It happens.
Less than 6 hours until the first pitch. I can't wait!
@John in Clearwater Good point about Frankie's "role" on the team. I really have no idea how much defined roles like being the 8th inning guy helps or hurts a pitcher. Ogando's struggles before yesterday were kind of moot though, since he dominated the seventh. And Frankie's struggles in the 8th last night were due to poor location on his fastball, not Arod muscling up a good pitch.
I'm going to the game tonight, can't wait for the atmosphere.
Michael...not to worry about the NY fans attendance here, we'll take their money...and we get to watch them get disappointed.
I am certainly guilty of misreading or misinterpreting some things here a few times, but how in the hell does this Andy guy interpret this as Joey "trashing" Murph?? Wtf, over?
I think this was insightful and fair.
@ Michael in Houston
"Murph has decent speed, a great arm (at least it seems) and can layout with the best of them. Btw, I'm pretty sure I heard that Cruz was learning how to layout as opposed to making sliding catches... How is it that he is considered so much better when he can't even pull off a layout catch well?"
Murphy has "decent speed" as opposed to good speed, so he HAS to layout well to make catches that a lot of guys would make standing up. Cruz has a much better arm, and the fact that he "can't even pull off a layout catch well" is irrelevant, because he gets to more balls standing up than Murphy does diving.
You're making the same mistake people make when they Derek Jeter/Michael Young, and going by how good a guy looks making a play, not the area he actually covers. Not trashing David Murphy, but he doesn't cover enough ground and has a mediocre arm, putting him fourth in terms of defense in the outfield behind Borbon, Hamilton, and Cruz.
Not to focus on the negative, but can someone explain the logic of pulling Ogando for Francisco in the 8th?
If you just left the "hot" early innings reliever in every time, those relievers would pitch 150 innings per year, and your late innings relievers would pitch 30.
That's just not how baseball go.
Also, Francisco has been one of the best relievers in the game the last 2 months. He's been dominant, and despite last night and a bad start to the season, he has the 7th best xFIP among AL relievers.
I think the reason for pulling Orgando in favor of Frank-Frank was that the Rangers were coming off and off day and since it is Cliffmass eve they might not need many relievers tomorrow.
It could also be that it was a 1-run game against a team with whom we're in a race for home field advantage in the playoffs, and Francisco has for the past 2.5 months of the season been the Rangers best reliever and one of the best in all of baseball... while Ogando is a rookie who hasn't been nearly as good.
Murph has decent speed, a great arm (at least it seems) and can layout with the best of them. Btw, I'm pretty sure I heard that Cruz was learning how to layout as opposed to making sliding catches... How is it that he is considered so much better when he can't even pull off a layout catch well? Anyways, just tell me I don't watch enough games if that's all it is.
Watching more games isn't the best way to make such evaluations. A better way would be to use statistical data, which caputres far more than a human mind can recall and fairly evaluate.
For example, career UZR/150 by outfield position:
Murphy
LF: +6.3
CF: -25.9
RF: +10.3
Overall: +4.6
Cruz
LF: +19.4
CF: --
RF: +10.8
Overall: +11.1
Yeah. Basically what I was saying.
@Michael in Houston as far as Murphy is concerned, he does have an above average to plus arm (55-60 on the 20-80 grade scale). So, his arm isn't as good as you seem to think it is, but it's certainly better than mediocre. As far as Rangers100 defensive stat comparison, it's fairly straightforward. Defensive stats are extremely unreliable in general, but UZR/150 isn't all that bad for judging outfield defense. Just never use UZR, +/-, or total zone rating to judge the defense of a catcher or 1B.
@Jim Fangraphs doesn't seem to have rankings of WPA; however, it's available at baseball reference's Play Index. Their calculations for WPA are different, so Play Index has Murphy at a .572 while fangraphs gave him a .576. It seems to weigh average leverage index more heavily than fangraphs. Murphy's .572 ranks 51st this year according to Play Index. He had an aLI of 2.112. Jason Heyward ranks first with a 1.004 WPA on April 18th. His aLI for that game was 3.513. All in all, I would say Murphy's game (defense included was more impressive than Heyward's, so take the WPA rankings from Play Index with a grain of salt.
Since FanGraphs UZR has come up, let me point out that this primer by MGL is essential reading.