Tuesday Morning Rangers Notes: Why Vlad Can't Hit ... Right Now
So, do you reckon that the Rangers can possibly sell out tomorrow night's game while touting Cliff Lee, the Yankees and dollar hot dog night as its prime attractions? Because if they can't sell out the Ballpark with that perfect storm of promotion and fortuitous timing, I really won't know what to say:
● Despite being nearly a week removed from last Thursday morning's arrhythmia-inducing climax to the bankruptcy auction (the exact time of the 12:40 a.m. ending is going to stick with me for a very long time in a do-you-remember-where-you-were-when sort of way, even though such striking memories are typically associated with tragedy), it seems that we still can't shut up about Mark Cuban. That being the case, I guess we might as well go ahead and purge all such thoughts on Cuban at the same time so that we can more intently focus on the actual incoming ownership consortium -- and while doing so, perhaps separate rumor from cold, hard fact.
Cuban affirmed last week that he had no intention of moving the Rangers if he had won the team (despite abundant rumors to the contrary), but did want to attempt to alleviate the heat problem at the Ballpark by coming up with some sort of shading solution for the bleacher seating in center field; I'm envisioning something in my head akin to the wavy pavilion roofs at Dodger Stadium, only wider and not quite as ... ugly? Cuban's absolutely right when he says that the heat does hurt attendance to some degree, but a large-scale retractable-roof solution simply isn't cost-effective, and I have a very difficult time imagining that there's much that can be done to resolve this "problem" until serious talk gears up in another 5-10 years about erecting a new ballpark.
● Is Vladimir Guerrero toast? The trendy and fashionable way to answer this question -- which, like many things in life, is more complex than it appears on the surface -- is to factor his age/injury history/horrid post-June performance (.213/.278/.336 in 133 plate appearances) together and proclaim that yeah, he's done, or at the very least falling back to league-average earth. However, simply knowing that Guerrero has fallen off the wagon tells us very little, and not knowing what the underlying cause is how misinformation and propaganda end up spreading. So, why has Guerrero's offense gone in the tank?
Well, the answer isn't to be found in his plate discipline numbers; he was actually more patient during the month of July than his seasonal averages (including swing rate, contact rate, etc.), so the culprit isn't here. Part of the issue seems to be horrendous luck, as the gap between his BABIP (.223) and expected BABIP (.312) over that 133-plate appearance span is more than 90 points. That would certainly account for his struggles to a significant degree. However, a more bizarre abnormality shows up when you break down his batted-ball locations: Guerrero has been terrible in 2009-10 when hitting the ball to right field (think along the lines of a composite .285 wOBA), and it turns out that he's been doing this way too often lately, largely eschewing his trademark pull power in the process.
What could possibly account for this? Now there's a valid question. I don't think it's deterioration in Guerrero's raw power or bat speed, per se (although it would be easy to infer that from the batted-ball chart). Theoretically, it could be Guerrero actively striving to somehow change his approach, but that doesn't make very much sense, because his new "approach" -- and I don't think it actually is one -- is yielding sub-replacement results. The best answer to this riddle begins and ends with the luck component, and I think there's a pretty sturdy chance that this all ends up balancing out, but the dearth of pull-side power since the beginning of July ... well, it's interesting to say the least.
Analysis, The Season
Reader Comments (26)
It's Texas boys. It's hot. Always has been. Always will be. This whole wilt in the heat thing seems to have started up in the mid-90's, along about the time the warmist theorists were ramping up their propaganda initiative to the masses. That so many folks constantly harp about the heat at the ballpark is testament to their effectiveness. I remember being out in the metal outfield bleachers at Arlington Stadium with the sun bearing down directly on the huge thermometer regularly reading over 115 at 5:30 or so. Nobody really talked about it except as a source of amusement. The players certainly didn't worry about it. We knew it was hot, but then, it always had been. No biggie, move on.
Vlad. The reason he's not enjoying better opposite field success is because he IS trying to pull the outside pitch. He's getting "around the ball" which typically results in soft flares or rollers to the opposite side. Not sure why he would but I've seen Michael Young do the same thing recently. Wash actually specifically addressed that issue during the O-Town series. As they correct it, their results will improve offensively.
Molina should be added to the list of people trying to pull the outside pitch as well.
It's Summer. It is hot everywhere. Man up!
After going through Sammy Sosa and Andruw Jones, should we really be surprised that a guy we signed who's near the end of his career is fading as the season wears on?
He is a DH. The heat has nothing to do with it. He is just struggling right now. I would suggest a few more days off and put the hot hitters in the lineup. I don't know how many more times we have to watch him hit in to DP's.
@Kristen - you're not comparing apples to apples. You shouldn't lump Vladdy into the Sosa and Jones group of under-achieving, aging superstars. He's better than that....
@Slider - I agree with you. He's DHing and should NOT be tired or worn out. He's getting up there in age, and he's painful to watch when in the batter's box... but his recent struggles shouldn't be a result of 110 degree heat.
Maybe he's just in a prolonged slump and he's pressing. Maybe he's being careful to not over-extend himself, thereby keeping his best ABs for the playoffs... who knows!
Bottom line is Vladdy is a verteran that knows what he's doing.
I do agree that Wash should try to give him a solid 3-5 games off, with NO baseball activity... and see if it helps.
We have some flexibility now and can rest guys that may be struggling.
the dropoff with Vlad coincided with being pitched up and in consistently. This was a deliberate and consistent approach to try and back him off. Although I did not watch him on a regular basis when he played for the Angels, I don't remember this ever being used effectively against him in the past.
I think it has affected him. At first I thought it was his bat speed but now I am beginning to think it has gotten him out of his comfort zone and changed his approach enough to reduce his barrelling of the ball. It only takes a small change to get out of the wheelhouse.
Even Vlad's hard hit balls are right at people. It's just a matter of time before those balls start finding holes. Everyone take a deep breath.
I wonder why Wash hasn't given Young a day off recently. I know he let him DH in Seattle for one game, but I think he needs a full game off here and there because he's really struggling and is already a defensive liability at 3B as well.
I think Guerrero struggled and maybe tried to compensate by changing up his approach a bit. He'll be back on track soon, I'd bet, with better production if not as good as earlier in the year. It's even more important to the team that Young gets back on track, Kinsler returns healthy at some point, and guys like Hamilton and Cruz do what they are capable of.
It's been nice to see Andrus' walk rate tick back in an upward direction lately. It had been down around 7-8% for a while as he slumped, back up to 10% lately. His OBP is .420 over the last two weeks, nice.
Using the eye test to me Vlad's low BABIP right now has to do with him not barreling the ball like he was earlier in the season. He's still hitting the ball hard it just happens to be straight into the ground or straight into the air. What I'm wondering is whether he's just in a temporary funk, or if he's in fact getting worn down and instead of compensating by not swinging as hard – which I'm not sure he can mentally do – he's still going for it all and just missing.
These aren't farmers in the field for 12-14 hours of backbreaking work. These are trained and well conditioned athletes that get to stand for a few minutes and then sit almost as much. They have A/C blowing on them in the dugout similar to a line for an amusement park attraction or they can walk a few steps into the comfort of indoor cages or the locker room should they wish...especially the DH. The heat is a much bigger factor for the fans than the players!
On the dome topic...do you really want the artificial feeling of that type of ballpark environment? I know that I prefer fresh air, gentle breezes and that big Texas sky over the enclosed confines with a roof over my head.
Play ball and stop looking for excuses. The team has never gone all the way because the Rangers have NEVER, EVER had the best team or even the luckiest team. Maybe this is the chance, but then watch for excuses as to why it won't or can't happen again.......
@David
I don't think anyone is saying they're living a tough life-style, with "backbreaking work" that no one could possibly understand. Instead I think the heat factor of Texas is an issue purely in relation to what the A's are experiencing in Cali, what the Twins are dealing with in Minnesota, or what the Yankees are experiencing up in New York (just to name a few examples). Their work is not "rigorous" or unbearable, it's just that the weather of Texas can have an adverse effect when considering that other players don't have to deal with that heat.
Now, having said all that... I in no way believe Vlad's hitting woes are heat related.
About a month ago, teams started throwing high and tight, knocking Vlad down about 4 or 5 times in a row. I think it got in his head and now he goes up there thinking about the high inside hard one?? I'm afraid this could be the whole problem with Vlad?? Hope not. I can only think it has to be on his mind??
I tend to agree with David. The heat should not be used as an excuse for 1 simple reason, the opposition is playing in it too. Granted, they aren't in it for 35+ games, but still... they suffer just as much, if not more, than the Rangers.
I would say that the starting pitcher and catcher are over-exposed... but again, so is the other team.
Regarding Vlad - why will no one acknowledge that the guy is just in a slump? It happens to every player, every year. And Vlad isn't Chris Davis, Salty, or TT... he doesn't have a fragile psyche. He's a battle hardened vet that's probably laughing this slump off as something that just happens over the course of 162 games. ** I'm not in anyway suggesting that Vlad is taking his slump lightly, at the team's expense... I'm just saying that it's likely no big deal to him because he's been there/done that.
Regarding MY and @Jeremy; Do we have anyone on the bench (or otherwise) that can even play 3rd base? While I agree with you that MY needs a solid 3 or 4 days rest, I don't think the altenative is something Wash is ready to use. I don't even know what the alternative would be; Cantu? Blanco or Guzman? I have no idea if Blanco has the arm for 3B... or if Cantu would be a train wreck... or if Guzman would just embarass himself.
Man, we need to hope and pray MY doesn't go down with injury.
Speaking of MY - who engineered his contract? Was it Hicks driven... or JD?
@Pablo
I don't think the Rangers need to sit Young for multiple days off in a row, but he should get one ever couple weeks and I think Cantu or Guzman would be adequate playing there for a game here and there. To me it looked obvious on the road trip that Young was really wearing down.
Maybe Vlad will bust out when he RETURNS to the Texas heat. I'm hoping so. It would be great to see the Rangers take a pair from the Yanks. I like the match-ups.
It's August and hot everywhere south of New England and not in the Mountains. There's no dome in So. Cal., Atlanta, Miami, St. Louis, KC and a lot of other hot places. Part of getting paid the big bucks.
MY CONCERN IS NOT VLAD BUT MICHAEL YOUNG. HE HAS NOT ONLY DROPPED OFF IN HITTING BUT IS A MAJOR LIABILITY AT 3RD BASE. I HAVE NOT SEEN SO MANY OLAY'S FROM A 3RD BASEMAN AS I HAVE MICHAEL THE LAST 50 GAMES OR MORE. I LIKE MICHAEL BUT MAYBE WASH NEEDS TO SPEND SOME TIME WITH HIM ON FIELDING. OUR DEFENSE HAS GOT TO BE ALMOST PERFECT THE REST OF THE WAY.
I don't think the players have that much of a problem with the heat. But, as a fan I sure do. I didn't mind it 20 years ago when I was "young." But, now that I'm in my sixties, you won't catch me sitting outside at a baseball game in August, not in Texas, not in St. Louis. Not anywhere, unless it's indoors. I want to live to be 70 and beyond.
@ Jeremy
I don't really want to see Guzman anywhere near the field. This guy is not the same player he used to be. He does not move as well now and seems to have no idea at the plate.
Now that being said, if he is in the lineup tonight I hope he goes 4 for 4.
Wow, I can't believe none of these responses commented on the fact the Vlad article said basically nothing. It took that many words for you to decide it's a luck component and things will balance out?
Wow, I can't believe none of these responses commented on the fact the Vlad article said basically nothing. It took that many words for you to decide it's a luck component and things will balance out?
I said that's what is most likely happening here; we can't be completely certain, however. The fact that his distribution of batted balls to left field has been far lower since he entered this slump is pretty noteworthy as well, however, because we're looking for things that might be indicative of something he's actually doing differently (e.g. not random variance).
Joey, if Vlad rebounds and has average DH production the rest of the way, what would you offer him in the offseason? 2 years max? 10 million per? More or less?
I think Cuban was on the mark with the shade for the fans. The today generation is an air conditioner generation. Even us old guys and gals that didn't have AC growing up have grown to love that old Carrier. It is unbearable sitting for hours in direct sun with no breeze. Texas stadium was designed for fan shade reducing the heat somewhat while maintaning the natural elements for the players. See that the fans can be more comfortable and tickets will fly off the shelf.
I also notice a lot guys of trying to pull the outside pitches. Vlad's problem could be pitch selection. He swings at a bouncer in front of the plate and watches a fastball go right down the middle. I am not knocking the guy , I understand it's hard to tell at 97 mph what the pitch is gonna do in less than a second. But with age also the qickness with which it takes to decide and hit the good ones leaves us. I still think he is our guy in the middle of the order. You have to respect his bat, and opposing pitchers have to labor to get him out. (sometimes ). Go Rangers " all the way guys ".
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