On The Rangers' Cliff Lee Trade
Joey Matschulat
From a brazenly self-centered perspective, I feel vindicated ... and relieved. Because less than 12 hours after positing that any perceived job insecurity could prompt general manager Jon Daniels to take a gamble that they otherwise might not have taken, and then watching that theory seemingly get shot down by the Yankees' almost-acquisition of Cliff Lee, all the pieces ended up falling into place, and the Rangers locked in one of the majors' five best starting pitchers -- the dominant top-of-the-rotation piece which has eluded Texas for so long. So long ... but no longer.
The trade, which has been confirmed as final and has already received the approval of the commissioner's office despite the Rangers' ongoing financial malaise, sends left-handed ace Cliff Lee, right-hander Mark Lowe and $2.25 million in cash to Texas in exchange for first baseman Justin Smoak, right-hander Blake Beavan, right-hander Josh Lueke and second baseman Matt Lawson. Of these six players, only three are particularly germane to the balance of the deal, those being Lee, Smoak and Beavan; the other pieces were obviously included for varying reasons, but they're clearly not the impact parts that compelled one side or the other to consummate this deal.
[On those other pieces: Lowe, 27, is a high-octane fastball-slider reliever with a propensity for yielding walks; view him as a Chris Ray-esque gamble that may or may not eventually pay off, and definitely won't pay off in the near term, as he's out for the season after undergoing lower-back microdiscectomy surgery on June 15th. Lueke, 25, brandishes a mid-90s heater and legitimate swing-and-miss secondary pitches, but likely also had the most questionable make-up in the Texas organization, and I suspect his sordid incident in Bakersfield last year was a significant factor in his inclusion. Lawson, 24, is an excellent defensive second baseman (per Scout.com's Jason Cole), but is, at this point, an organizational guy with the top-level upside of a utility infielder.]
Lee doesn't require much introduction, I don't think; he's amassed a whopping 17.8 pitching wins above replacement from 2008-2010, employing what is primarily a two-seam/four-seam/cutter/change-up arsenal with elite-level command; ESPN.com's Keith Law more succinctly characterized him last July as "a four-pitch guy with command and control who works deep into games," adding at the time that he was showing a large righty-favored platoon split. Curiously, the opposite has proven true thus far this season, as lefty-hitting batters have enjoyed a nearly 200-point OPS edge relative to their righty-hitting counterparts ... but Lee has also not walked a single left-handed batter this season, and is posting the best single-season strikeouts-to-walks ratio in baseball history, so there's that.
Smoak, as mentioned earlier, is thought of in some circles as an eventual platoon player whose inferior swing from the right side of the plate might force him to drop his switch-hitting ways; I don't know that you can saddle him with the 'platoon player' label after logging fewer than 300 major league plate appearances, but he has yet to prove that he can hit southpaws at any level -- Frisco, Oklahoma City, or Texas. Despite the horrendous luck he has experienced this season, his upside is still that of a perennial All-Star, and his extremely advanced plate patience should buy him as many second chances as necessary, but the total package may not be equivalent to that of a truly elite first baseman.
And what of Beavan? He's a solid pitching prospect, somebody who could conceivably find success as a back-of-the-rotation innings-eater in Safeco Field's pitcher-friendly environment, but resident scouting expert Jason Parks did not assess his ceiling to be among the 25 highest prospect ceilings in the organization, pegging his overall future potential at '54' on the 20-to-80 scouting scale while writing, "Great control, solid-average to plus [fastball], but his secondary pitches aren't major league plus pitches. I still think he becomes a long-man/[fifth-starter] type. Without a major league out pitch, Beavan’s ceiling is very limited."
The Justin Smoak vs. Chris Davis debate -- which isn't even all that relevant anymore -- is one that we can hash out another day, but it seems readily apparent that the Mariners, fixated on acquiring an impact bat, wanted Smoak from the outset, and that swapping Davis into the package for Smoak would have necessitated the inclusion of Derek Holland or Tanner Scheppers. Davis -- and, more specifically, his plate discipline -- frighten me, but I suppose there's a reasonable chance that he can hold down the fort at first base through the remainder of 2010 without devolving into a sub-replacement-level mess yet again, and I think I'd rather take that gamble than lose Holland and/or Scheppers.
This trade stings, but there was no rational reason to believe that it wouldn't. That none of the three players accompanying Smoak were integral in the Rangers' plans is very good; that Texas managed to acquire the best left-handed pitcher in baseball without relinquishing any of its top pitching prospects, however, is laudable to the highest degree. There are several more lenses through which we can evaluate this trade, and I may dig into those in the next few days, but right now, I think we can feel really good about not only the Rangers' chances of completing a deep post-season push, but also the front office's ability to take the proverbial final step. And what a hell of a final step it is.
[For more reactions to The Trade v. 2.0, check out The Clubhouse.]
Reader Comments (19)
I was already preparing myself for a Bret Myers level trade that I was going to convince myself was a great pitcher for the rangers... Now I don't have to try to convince myself anything!
I think Lowe is 27.
I'm not happy to have lost Smoak, but I'm more perturbed that the Rangers have traded away their top two picks from the 2007 draft for about $4M in these two trades (Beavan and Main). Thanks, Tom Hicks.
Out of the top young players talked about in trade rumors lately (Holland, Smoak, Perez, and Scheppers) I think Smoak is the least painful one to lose. All of the others to me have greater upside. Seeing Lee in a Rangers uniform is going to do a lot to assuage my grief over Smoak. I think there is a greater than zero chance that Beavan adds a pitch or two over the next couple of years and becomes a 200 inning 3rd starter. That would make this bankruptcy chapter all the more painful.
When I heard about the trade I said to myself oh no. Then I saw what we gave compared to what the rumors were, wow, I can live with this. JD needs a raise as soon as the ownership situation gets settled.
Just hope Lee's numbers at the Ballpark are just a fluke.
The Yankees lost out to the Rangers (thanks John Daniels!) as the Rangers "bagged the elephant!"
Cliff Lee is a Ranger!
Yes, the baseball gods are alive! Alive! The Yankees have been screwed out of a deal. Life is sooooo great!
A great move, and for very little. I hope Lee does well and re-signs.
As for first base, move Murphy to first. He needs to be in the line up every day. I think he has been ill used. Every time he plays he starts slow and about the time he gets hot and raises his BA he has to sit again.
Woo Hoo! This was the best case senerio. We knew someone awesome would be traded if we got a real #1 like Lee. And the fact that we put any of our top pitching studs in the rotation next year when Lee leaves, is perfect now and later! Welcome back CD.
We know Chris Davis has a better glove than Smoak. At least that's a plus.
I've a feeling that Smoak will blossom (like so many other first basemen the Rangers have given up on in the past) and become a thorn in the side of the Rangers 13 or 14 times a year.
It's time for Chris Davis to step up because he's the first baseman for years to come (at least on paper.)
I hate losing Beavan but not THAT much; everything I have read from scouts say just what Joey wrote above. He'll probably be a real nice bullpen guy, though.The other guys, meh.
Lee still might not take the Rangers to the WS. The second half lies ahead and the Angels are not going away - and they know something the Rangers don't - they know how to win.
thanks Wash................. indecision................................ sure would not want to yank NF out and destroy his self-confidence.....
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when he gives up hits, get him out of there..
Either Smoak or Davis was going to be included in a trade. Getting Lee is great, but can the Rangers keep him beyond this season? Does anybody know if negotiations with the Astros for Oswalt were going on simultaneously? My guess is that Astros would not have demanded any more than the Rangers sent to the Mariners, and that Oswalt would be under the Rangers control for another year. Anybody heard anything about this?
Update (Thanks Dave H)
I believe that currently Francisco, Lee, Molina, and Vlad are all currently Type A free agents.
Counting the Rangers own choice that is NINE picks before the second round next year. One could draft an entire starting team!
WoW!
(Please God let the ownership situation resovle itself and let Ryan be the owner).
As a fellow Razorback I should love Cliff Lee coming here, and I do. However, I think this is a trade the Rangers will regret. Smoak has the kind of plate discipline this team should be looking for, he's the antithesis of Chris Davis as far as his approach to hitting. I've seen people worrying about trading away Chris Davis, drawing the Adrian Gonzalez comparison. I think Smoak is going to be that level of regret. And then Beavan, he looks to be the kind of middle of the rotation innings eater every team needs. When I hear the complaints about him, it makes me think about what people said (and still say) about Tommy Hunter. Hopefully it works out, but I'm not optimistic.
The Rangers will regret this deal, as will er Ranger fans. It is awesome to have Cliff Lee, but it is onlt for 3 months. Then when the season is over & he signs with the Yankees everyone who loves him right now will hate him. Then we will get to see Smoak turn into an amazing player while 1st base continues to be a revolving door.With performances like the last two nights Lee will have to pitch complete games just to get the victory. In fact since he is only a 3 month rental he should throw complete games just like Sabathia did for the Breweers. Don't get me wrong getting Cliff Lee is great, but I hate the 3 month rental.
Memo to self
After last nights meltdown, please check on the availability of the following:
A) Call the Yankees and see if Mariano Rivera is available
B) Need someone who can drive in runs from third with less than two outs-maybe Josh Willingham is the one
C) Unload Nippert ASAP - welcome to Arlington Mr. Scheppers
What a disgusting loss last night was! Wonder what Mr. Lee is thinking right now?
If Davis doesn't hit, the Rangers go into the off-season with holes at catcher, first base, DH and a terrible-fielding third baseman - and no one to step into their shoes.
Max Ramirez? Chad Tracy? Moreland? Meh!
I think they got away with minimal damage in the deal, and if they get to the WS then I suppose it will have been worth it. On the other hand, no way Lee doesn't test the FA waters, and no way Texas could even afford him with the ownership mess they've created - so that means bye bye Lee in October. Considering that, and how iffy Chris Davis is, I think Texas may come to rue this deal in the long run. I hate rental players, and so for that reason alone I think this is not a very wise gamble.
Justin Smoak has been terrible the past 3 weeks, and very streaky overall, but if you watch the games, he has a great swing and hits a lot of hard balls right at people. He'll come around, at least enough to hit .250 with a nice OBP and good power. I think Texas is going to wince every time they play Seattle in the same way they have to wince every time they see John Danks.
Im not really as worried as i thought i would be about seeing smoak in a Ms uni. i saw a stat on ESPN that showed his projected stats for the next 6 years and the best season it projected was .265/.385/.420 with 19 hrs 79 rbi pretty average if you ask me, sure projections are just that, projections, but they are usually pretty close....also, i am still not sure if he will continue to be a switch hitter, and hopefully im right that he wont be Ranger-killer 2.0
So can Cliff Lee close games on the nights he isn't starting?
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