The Cliff Lee Trade Rumor Saga
Cliff Lee fires a sixth-inning pitch against the Cubs on Wednesday, June 23rd.I suppose the timing of this latest spate of rumors/speculation/hearsay strikes a slightly discordant note, particularly since it's hitting us mere hours after six fairly strong innings from 105-strikeout man Colby Lewis and three virtually perfect frames from the all-Dominican flamethrowing Ogando/Francisco/Feliz trifecta, but one home victory against an inferior ballclub doesn't really mitigate the shaky back half of the Rangers' rotation, nor the ominous second-half schedule, so ... well, here we are.
According to multiple local beats (including MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan), major league sources have confirmed that trade discussions between the Mariners and Rangers with regard to a Cliff Lee-to-Texas deal are "heating up," with Chris Davis, Justin Smoak, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Derek Holland and Blake Beavan all being mentioned as potential components of a prospect-loaded package coming back the Mariners' way. Of particular interest is that neither Martin Perez nor Tanner Scheppers are deemed as available at present, although given the degree to which Lee-involved teams are engaged in posturing right now, I hesitate to buy too much into any early proclamations of players being untouchable. This thing is still awfully damn fluid.
[Per ESPN.com's and ProspectInsider.com's Jason Churchill, one internet rumor of the Rangers offering Smoak for Lee has been debunked, but discussions stalled out to some extent when Seattle informed Texas that a match "isn't likely" without Smoak's inclusion. Incidentally, earlier reports that the Twins had offered two top-40 prospects -- catcher Wilson Ramos and outfielder Aaron Hicks -- also appear to have been misinformed, which effectively puts us back near (or at) step one.]
Here's the thing about Holland: yeah, he's had his major league struggles, hit his developmental speed bumps and so forth, but we're still taking about a high-pedigree 24-year-old southpaw with strong talent/upside who (a) still has five seasons remaining on his club-control clock after 2010 and (b) has already largely powered through the arduous process of acclimating to the majors, an attribute which certain teams value highly. Is it fair to state, then, that his trade value is still largely commensurate with that of, say, another top-50 pitching prospect (e.g. Tanner Scheppers)? Or has his rising star already lost that much luster? I fall into the former camp, but it's worth considering both angles.
The other aspect of this Lee-to-Texas thing that doesn't receive nearly enough attention -- and I may write up a separate post on this subject in the next week -- is the tangible value added by way of Lee upping your chances of reaching the post-season. Despite sitting atop the division by a cozy 5.5-game margin as of this writing (which is tied for the Rangers' largest in-season division lead since 1999), this division is clearly not won yet, and throwing Lee into the mix arguably improves your chances of reaching the post-season by another 5-10 percent (this is a total shot in the dark, mind you, but it sounds about right from an intuitive standpoint).
That ballpark figure speaks to the fact that adding Lee specifically is not required to win the division, but by amplifying your chances of reaching the post-season, you're doing some really good things for the franchise's revenue streams: each additional regular-season win added around $1 million to a team's bottom line as of 2005 (per Nate Silver in "Baseball Between the Numbers"), whereas one post-season appearance alone can add around $25-30 million in present-day value by means of greater future regular-season ticket sales/merchandise sales/concession sales, post-season gate receipts and the corresponding increase in the value of local broadcast rights.
Adding Cliff Lee would not assure the Rangers of winning a post-season series or, for that matter, reaching the post-season at all (although they would become very heavy favorites to win the division with Lee, notwithstanding any deleterious effects from losing Smoak and/or Holland), but in this game, it's all about rational, objective analysis, and the reality of the matter is that there's serious value to be derived from post-season baseball of any magnitude in Arlington this year -- value that I'm hoping would be enough to justify relinquishing at least one of Perez/Scheppers/Holland/Smoak, which is, to me at least, looking very likely if a deal is going to get done at all.
84 Comments | in Analysis, Prospects, Rumors, The Season
Reader Comments (84)
JON DANIELS IS GOING TO HAVE TO BE 100% RIGHT ON WHOM HE KEEPS KNOWING THAT THEY ARE CERTAIN FUTURE STARS. HE CANNOT AFFORD TO TRADE PLAYERS THAT WILL HURT THE CHANCES FOR THE FUTURE OF THE CLUB TO BE A YEARLY POWER. YOU STRUGGLE TO GET GUYS LIKE SMOAK, SCHEPPERS, HOLLAND, AND OTHERS THAT WILL SOON REPLACE THE FELDMANS, HARDENS, NIPPERT, AND OTHERS ON THE STAFF. PEREZ AND E. BETRE SHOULD BE UNTOUCHABLES ALSO. HARRISON, BEAVAN, DAVIS, SALTY, AND A FEW OTHERS ARE NOT UNTOUCHABLES. DON'T MAKE THE TRADE FOR A SHORT TERMER THAT MAY OR MAY NOT LEAD THE RANGERS TO THE PLAYOFFS!
I offer this package: Mitch Moreland, Justin Smoak and maybe Tommy Mendonca
And the Mariners politely decline while trying not to laugh.
Tommy Mendonca? PUHLEEZE!
Everyone talks about the brutal schedule the Rangers have in the 2nd half… but it’s not that much worse than the Angels:
Rangers (77 remaining games)
44 vs. .500+ teams, 23 on the road
33 vs. -.500 teams, 20 on the road
Tough stretches
7/15 – 7/25
8/10 - 8/18
9/6 – 9/15
Easy stretch
There really isn't any but 9/23 – 9/29 looks somewhat “easy”
Angels (74 remaining games)
41 vs. .500 teams, 20 on the road
33 vs. -.500 teams, 13 on the road
Tough stretches
7/20 – 8/1
8/13 – 8/25
9/17 – 9/29
Easy stretches
7/9 – 7/18
8/27 – 9/16
The Rangers have 14 games remaining against the Angels, 8 of which are home games.
If 90 wins takes the AL West, the Rangers need to go 40-38 the rest of the way while the Angels have to go 44-31.
To add a little perspective, if the Rangers only go 18-15 vs. sub .500 clubs (which isn’t likely, even though only 13 of the 33 games are at home) and win just ½ their games vs. good clubs (23 of which are at home), they’re at 90 wins. Over the same stretch, the Angels would have to go 23-10 vs. bad clubs and split their games vs. good clubs.
I don’t want to jinx the Rangers and say this thing is sewn up…because it’s certainly not… but the Angels are going to have to get healthy in a hurry and pick up a FEW pieces (via trade… because their farm system is no longer pumping out prospects) to make a run at it.
I am NOT a proponent of buying at the trade deadline…because it rarely works. I’m also too greedy with prospects… but if Cliff Lee is available at a reasonable price, I’d definitely prefer him over an Oswalt or Dan Haren (who has the strangest splits).
** disclaimer - several of you have mentioned that Lee might be a disaster in Arlington, and I agree.
I say stand pat and ride the guys that got you to this point... and instead of using the wealth of prospects as trade bait… use them as depth to fill in as needed.
You forgot the most important thing - we have the classiest, most brilliant manager in baseball!
So obsessed.
Really sad.
"The Rangers have an Ace; his name is Colby Lewis." by CliffPhelps
I can't let go of this.
I think the negative remarks about Wash need to stop... and not because I find it offensive (b/c I don't) or he might actually see it (which he won't), etc... but for the simple fact that the guy has a very, very young team (with limited leadership) that's winning and therefore he deserves props.
Could a Torre, La Russa, Pinella, Baker type manager add a few wins, maybe... but they could also lose the team and we could have a full blown catastrophe on hand. I don't see that happening with Wash.
He makes curious decisions... no doubt... but he has the players attention and he gets them to play hard and compete EVERY game... what else could you ask of him?
I could see an egomaniac like Bobby V. (who I like by the way... just not for a team full of youngsters) and making disastrous personnel decisions that could ruin this team's bright future
Wash for Prez!
Pabloesque, good point on the schedule. It's not that bad. Rangers and Angels have pretty equal schedules left.
Getting Lee isn't about winning the division though. It's about winning Games 1 and 4 of the ALDS and 1, 4, and 7 of the ALCS and WS.
It will take two Tier 1 prospects and 1-2 Tier 2s (depending on whether or not Simpson and Davis agree to pay for Lee's remaining $4 million).
Even if you hold on to prospects this time, at some point the Rangers are going to have to sacrifice for an ace. You don't win World Series on first contract pitchers and journeymen. So when are you going to ever agree to such a move if not now? We have 2 more years with this group. By 2013, Hamilton, Guerrero, and Young are all gone or too old (in Young's case). That trio alone is on pace to be a +17 WAR this year. To acquire that in 3 positions would take $30M or more, and we don't have anything in the system that can come close to replacing that by 2013. (Few teams do.)
This is how baseball go. And it's tine. Pull the trigger.
He makes curious decisions... no doubt...
Every single manager does. Every single one. And just as often.
That's just how baseball go.
Piniella sac bunted in the first inning at the Ballpark this year. LaRussa is getting blasted in St. Louis by many right now for numerous debatable decisions he's made. Scioscia approved of the awful Kazmir acquisition.
That's. How. Baseball. Go.
Absolutely, Ron Washington for President. The dude has done an awesome job this year and has taken the complete lack of credit he's given completely in stride. I hope we sign him to a long extension after this season.
This is just nitpicking, but it's "That's the way baseball go."
"I hope we sign him to a long extension after this season"
Not sure I would go that far. Giving him another couple years would be good. He has earned that. He has the staff around him that should be able to help him with the tactical aspect of the game. I don't think Wash is a big enough celebrity to be Prez... POW POW! I hate politics. Sorry for that. If we do end up making the playoffs, Wash should get some sort of contract, regardless of what I think of his in-game skills. He will have earned it.
@Pabloesque, ".500+" doesn't quite describe what we could face in these 45 games:
7 gms vs Boston
5 gms vs Detroit
14 gms vs LAA
5 gms vs NYY
3 gms @ Tampa Bay
7 gms vs Twins
4 gms @ Toronto
All these teams can give us fits for not so short periods of time. If we go 25-20 in those games, we are WS contenders, but it wouldn't be shameful to go 20-25. However, I think most of us with a bit of imagination can see us possibly running a little bad with slumps or injuries and going 17-28 .
It's definitely nice to have 8 upcoming games with Baltimore and 3 with KC; we also have 12 gms vs Oakland and 9 gms vs Seattle -- who knows how hard those teams will be fighting down the stretch.
Where do this schedule leave us at the end? I think it will be 90-91 wins if the rotation doesn't break down. If they win 95 games, this team will have earned it!
Oh, this was about Cliff Lee, not Wash. Oh how a thread can change to quickly.
My thoughts. I don' do the deal if the financial situation has to effect the players that are added. Seattle could essentially play us until they get what they want. I don't give up two A grade prospects for a two month rental. I just don't do it. I don't think any believes that with Lee we win the WS. I think he might guarantee the playoffs, which would be nice. But I think were about 70-30 in favor of making it anyways. I still think bringing back up CD for Smoak and hoping Harden will have figured it out and post a 2ish ERA like he did in the second half last year would be better. If you still want Lee after the season, then make a high priced run at him. I just don't like a two month rental for two A level prospects.
Now, if we could get away with Smoak, Font, Moreland, and Ross. I might do it. I might also consider a deal including Cruz. I know Murphy as your everyday outfielder might not be the best, but something about Cruz has been rubbing me the wrong way recently.
Would an offer of Davis, Cruz, Salty, Harrison, Beavan and Font for Lee and Brantly be idiot for either perspective?
I meant idiotic, not idiot, haha!
Rangers100: If the cost for Cliff Lee is indeed 2 elite prospects and two tier two prospects, we absolutely have to say no. End of story. There isn't a single player on the block right now that's worth that haul. You're talking about a price that's absolutely ridiculous. If you think Lee's worth 2 elite and 2 2nd tier prospects, get ready to feel like a Braves fan circa 2007.
Seattle would rather have an elite ML player than 2 elite "prospects." So offer Nelson Cruz for Cliff Lee straight up. The Ms accept it or find a team with a desperate GM.
Daniels is not vying to keep his job here....or trying to go out with a bang like John Schuerholz in 2007.
2 quality starts out of 7 for Lee at the Ballpark. Why does everyone ignore that he has always had trouble pitching in Arlington. I would hate to see the Rangers trade the future, maybe a run like Atlanta had in the 90s to be a one shot wonder like the fish, if he even shows he can overcome his pitching woes at the Ballpark.
PLEASE JULY 31 GET HERE SOON!
@Rangers513 Maybe its not the ballpark, but the awe inspiring offense instead?!
If you think Lee's worth 2 elite and 2 2nd tier prospects, get ready to feel like a Braves fan circa 2007.
How are the Braves doing now?
@Rangers 100 - I know, I know... at some point we have to use the farm to get better, whether it be by internal development or trade. And listen, I know Lee is proven and he no doubt gives the Rangers a legit shot at not only making the playoffs, but also helping win at least 1 freaking series (in the playoffs).
Here's my thing; the "plan" all along is to win from within... and that's whats happening... with the long term goal of MULTIPLE pennants/titles, not just 1 (although we'd take just 1 at this point). To build a present day "Big Red Machine".
I do realize that you have to give something to get something... and the wash-out rate is high for prospects, particulary pitchers... but we cannot mortgage the future for 2 months of solid pitching and a hope/prayer that Lee can bring us to the Promise Land. Keep in mind he pitches in the cozy confines of a pitchers park... an extreme pitchers park... and as far as I know, he's never pitched every 5 days in 100 degree heat.
Just sayin'...
Regarding Wash and a long term contract; if JD and co. think that Wash is the man then they must lock him down long term (BTW - I've also said the same about JD. I have nightmares about Cashman retiring and JD hired as his replacement... I can't think of a worse scenario).
By managing on these 1 and 2 yr deals you set the stage for acts of desperation. If I know that my job is at stake because I'm not hitting my quota each week/month/quater, I'm going to do whatever I have to do to hit my numbers. What's holding Wash back from doing the same, like running up pitch counts, blowing up the bullpen, playing guys that are hurt, etc..?. He's doing just the opposite; he's allowed himself to be held accountable by not only JD and Nolan, but also Maddux and his veteran players. That's huge... and he deserves to be rewarded with a 4 or 5 yr deal so that there's no question he has the team's best interest at heart. I'm not saying he doesn't already... but there has to be a different mindset when you're managing for your life/career vs. managing with a long term goal, such as winning a pennant.
** BTW - I have posted many, many times (on here) that Wash needs to go... in fact, if they get mired in a 4 or 5 game slump, I'll be the 1st to ask for his head... so yeah, I'm a tad fair weathered but at this point I think Wash is the best, long term fit for this team.
@dude in UK - you're 100% correct... the teams we play are very, very good teams, not just avearage teams middling at, or slightly above, .500. They are however the same teams the Angels have to play. Also, a team like the Blue Jays would be wise to sell right now. If they do, then they fall off the map... but again, the Angels would benefit from that as well.
My point is that the Rangers shouldn't be punished for punishing the bad teams on their schedule. It is what it is. They can only play the team that's on the schedule. They can't do anything about the other team's record, etc.... and at the end, it really has no significance after game 162.
That 4 game stretch vs. the Angels (at home, to finish out the regular season) is going to be fun to watch. I will be a nervous freaking wreck if the Angels are within striking distance... but hopefully the Rangers will have a nice 6 or 7 game lead by then.
Wow, 70+ comments... congrats BBTia... words officially out!
@Petras, Zack Greinke is making $7 million this year but goes up to $13.5 million in 2011 and 2012. Doesn't matter; the Royals have told everybody "not available" when asked about him.
All I want to say is.. I sure hope Daniels and Nolan and Fuson and whoever else seriously think things through before doing a deal like this. Should they or not? Obviously (70+ comments) that's up for debate. But anybody happen to see what Danks did today? Ya, the same Danks who should be pitching for the Rangers threw a shutout today against LAA. There's guys in the system who have that potential as well. Just have to weigh September/October 2010 vs. 2011 and beyond potential. But that's what those guys get paid to decide, hopefully they make a smart decision.
"2 quality starts out of 7 for Lee at the Ballpark. Why does everyone ignore that he has always had trouble pitching in Arlington"
1. How about rephrasing this to "always had trouble pitching against the Rangers"?
B. We are a .500 ballclub on the road.
3. Colby Lewis IS NOT AN ACE dammit!!!
@dub 7.64 ERA at the Ballpark, 1.33 at home against the Rangers
I know "It's Time" but guess what it will be "It'sTime" again in 2011, then yet again in 2012, 2013................
So much of what is wrong with the world todasy is short term maximization.
Always, always play for the long run,
Now if we can trade a bunch of spare parts sure why not.
Otherwise remember the Tex Schram, Gil Brandt, Tom Landry Dallas Cowboys. The ones that ran off decacdes of competive teams and numerous championsships.
Ok, ok, "has trouble pitching in Arlington against the Rangers"! ;) Deal?
Clearly we are a better team in Arlington, as our road record indicates.
One possible scenario with Lee aquired in time to start July 30 @ LAA, which should work with the current rotation he could be inserted strategically to take advantage of road starts:
12 possible starts, 8 road starts 4 home starts
Road = July 30 LAA, Aug. 5th Sea, 17thTB, 22nd Bal, Sep. 1st KC, 7th Tor, 19th Sea, 24th Oak
Home= Aug 11th NYY, 27th Oak, Sep. 12th NYY, 29th Sea
I say he wins 10 of those 12.
@dub - why would the M's trade Lee before the deadline? Makes no sense unless Texas tells them that it has to be now or they're out. The M's maximize his value by holding out until the deadline... they'd be stupid not to.
I will not retract my statement that Lewis is an Ace because Lewis is, statistically speaking an Ace; at least right now
Some comparisons
ERA
C.C. Sab 3.19 Lewis 3.33
IP
C.C 124 Lewis110.2
BAA
C.C .227 Lewis .209
Whip
C.C 1.15 Lewis 1.12
I call that a toss up or as close as the Rangers have had in a long time
Cliff Lee....a 2 1/2 month rental player with no guarantee he will lead us to the promise land!! Trade off numerous of our youngsters that are our future and we will be left with another rebuilding program! Sure the players are excited about getting Lee and the possibility that he will take us to the playoffs and maybe beyond.....a one man messiah!! Then he goes off for mega-bucks, the players who have guaranteed contracts and big bucks got to the playoffs...maybe not any further though....and then we the fans sit through another 5-year rebuilding plan.
@Cliff Phelps
You just compared Colby Lewis to C.C. Sabathia? Really?
Sure, he is pitching well Cliff, but he is NOT an Ace. He has ONE CG and NO SHO for his entire career.
GMAFB. I think he is pitching very well too, but to call him an Ace is just silly. C.C. Sabathia is an Ace.
Cliff Lee is an Ace. Roy Oswalt is an Ace. Beckett, Halladay, Santana, Lincecum.
Colby Lewis is pitching well this year and stands out on an average staff.
He is not, I repeat NOT, a major league Ace. Period. Please don't compare him to another major league Ace again. It's ridiculous. If he keeps this up for a few years, i'm on board.
@Pablo
Actually, pablo, his value is maximized in a trade right now because the team he's going to gets him the entire 2nd half therefore the M's are able to demand more in return. Also the longer they wait the M's risk Lee being injured and getting NADA. It's going to happen this week.
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