The Cliff Lee Trade Rumor Saga
Cliff Lee fires a sixth-inning pitch against the Cubs on Wednesday, June 23rd.I suppose the timing of this latest spate of rumors/speculation/hearsay strikes a slightly discordant note, particularly since it's hitting us mere hours after six fairly strong innings from 105-strikeout man Colby Lewis and three virtually perfect frames from the all-Dominican flamethrowing Ogando/Francisco/Feliz trifecta, but one home victory against an inferior ballclub doesn't really mitigate the shaky back half of the Rangers' rotation, nor the ominous second-half schedule, so ... well, here we are.
According to multiple local beats (including MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan), major league sources have confirmed that trade discussions between the Mariners and Rangers with regard to a Cliff Lee-to-Texas deal are "heating up," with Chris Davis, Justin Smoak, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Derek Holland and Blake Beavan all being mentioned as potential components of a prospect-loaded package coming back the Mariners' way. Of particular interest is that neither Martin Perez nor Tanner Scheppers are deemed as available at present, although given the degree to which Lee-involved teams are engaged in posturing right now, I hesitate to buy too much into any early proclamations of players being untouchable. This thing is still awfully damn fluid.
[Per ESPN.com's and ProspectInsider.com's Jason Churchill, one internet rumor of the Rangers offering Smoak for Lee has been debunked, but discussions stalled out to some extent when Seattle informed Texas that a match "isn't likely" without Smoak's inclusion. Incidentally, earlier reports that the Twins had offered two top-40 prospects -- catcher Wilson Ramos and outfielder Aaron Hicks -- also appear to have been misinformed, which effectively puts us back near (or at) step one.]
Here's the thing about Holland: yeah, he's had his major league struggles, hit his developmental speed bumps and so forth, but we're still taking about a high-pedigree 24-year-old southpaw with strong talent/upside who (a) still has five seasons remaining on his club-control clock after 2010 and (b) has already largely powered through the arduous process of acclimating to the majors, an attribute which certain teams value highly. Is it fair to state, then, that his trade value is still largely commensurate with that of, say, another top-50 pitching prospect (e.g. Tanner Scheppers)? Or has his rising star already lost that much luster? I fall into the former camp, but it's worth considering both angles.
The other aspect of this Lee-to-Texas thing that doesn't receive nearly enough attention -- and I may write up a separate post on this subject in the next week -- is the tangible value added by way of Lee upping your chances of reaching the post-season. Despite sitting atop the division by a cozy 5.5-game margin as of this writing (which is tied for the Rangers' largest in-season division lead since 1999), this division is clearly not won yet, and throwing Lee into the mix arguably improves your chances of reaching the post-season by another 5-10 percent (this is a total shot in the dark, mind you, but it sounds about right from an intuitive standpoint).
That ballpark figure speaks to the fact that adding Lee specifically is not required to win the division, but by amplifying your chances of reaching the post-season, you're doing some really good things for the franchise's revenue streams: each additional regular-season win added around $1 million to a team's bottom line as of 2005 (per Nate Silver in "Baseball Between the Numbers"), whereas one post-season appearance alone can add around $25-30 million in present-day value by means of greater future regular-season ticket sales/merchandise sales/concession sales, post-season gate receipts and the corresponding increase in the value of local broadcast rights.
Adding Cliff Lee would not assure the Rangers of winning a post-season series or, for that matter, reaching the post-season at all (although they would become very heavy favorites to win the division with Lee, notwithstanding any deleterious effects from losing Smoak and/or Holland), but in this game, it's all about rational, objective analysis, and the reality of the matter is that there's serious value to be derived from post-season baseball of any magnitude in Arlington this year -- value that I'm hoping would be enough to justify relinquishing at least one of Perez/Scheppers/Holland/Smoak, which is, to me at least, looking very likely if a deal is going to get done at all.
84 Comments | in Analysis, Prospects, Rumors, The Season
Reader Comments (84)
Thinking "creatively" for a moment ...
Davis, Salty, Blake Beaven, Engel Beltre ... and one of Matt Harrison or Rich Harden.
I think Harden's upcoming rehab starts are crucial ... it becomes almost like an NBA trade ... Harden's a West Coast guy ... the spaciousness of Safeco Field should play to his fly ball tendencies ... and Seattle retains some semblance of competitiveness ... and the salary $$$ are almost a wash ...
For, at most, a 3 month rental (more than likely), it's difficult to justify more than a package like this ... OK, maybe ... if Seattle agrees to everyone else I've mentioned, I could be persuaded to swap Smoak for Davis ... but I'd want $$$ relief back in some form for that concession ...
So much for creativity ...
Its hard for me to think its a good thing to get a few month rental player when having to give up one of those top 4, if a ALCS berth was guaranteed then yes I probably would give up one of them but with the uncertainty as well as it not being a given we make the playoffs I'm too on the fence about it. I do think we will make the post-season and adding him would increase our chances of winning a series greatly but still... who to give up?
Lifelong Mariner fan here. Cliff Lee maybe as good as Randy Johnson was in the 90s for us. This is a once a decade, if not once a lifetime, opportunity to add a top 3 pitcher in all of MLB. What he has shown in the last month is unreal. 4 complete games against the top teams in the American League (Texas, Tampa Bay, Detroit, NYY) with a near 20-1 K/BB ratio. You all have a team right now that is playing about as well as possible. Sure, two years from now maybe the Rangers are legit as they are now, but Vlad may not be around, Hamilton may not be contending for the Triple Crown, and injuries could hamper a season. It is a no-brained to "rent" Lee and go after a World Series title. If the Rangers acquire Lee I would put them as my favorite in the AL. Without Lee, you may make the playoffs, but very hard to face any team from the East.
As AL West fans we need to realize you must take risks to win or go to a World Series. Even though the Mariners won 116 games in 2001 we didn't see a World Series in Seattle because we didn't make a move at the deadline. I know it's tough to give up Smoak to a AL West foe, but you won't miss him when you are watching Cliff Lee in October. To top it off, Texas will also receive two draft picks in the first 40 when Lee moves on.
Bottom line, this makes a ton of sense for Texas to obtain Lee, even if it costs a future All-Star. Remember it's easy to say there is always tomorrow, yet sometimes tomorrow never comes, especially when it is the Mariners or Rangers.
Going to take 2 blue chip prospects to sit at the table, likely a hitter and a pitcher, (Smoak or Davis + 1 arm from above). Then add sweeteners, which could be 1 premium prospect (Beltre, Beavan) or 2 from the next tier, (Gentry, Kirkman). Wild card will be if more is required to offset $, in which case they may need to add a 2nd premium guy or a 3rd next tier guy, at which point it becomes a serious overpay in my book, as is still my opinion on the Molina deal.
This is not a Hicks thread, but I'll say right now, he has totally screwed this team over. Shame too, because at this time, he should be basking in the glory of where this thing has come as a result of letting Daniels/Ryan do their jobs. But he can't escape the fact that instead of this team succeeding "because of", it's "in spite of" his stewardship the last several years. For such a brilliant financial business man, he's done some pretty bizarre and moronic things as a sports owner.
Good take Justin.
Question. As a Mariner fan, what would be your realistic expectation as a return for Lee, from the Rangers? Tigers? Yankees?
Nolan. Please do not trade for Cliff Lee. The price will be too high.
I personally take Holland off the table and look for his addition after the all-star break to be like adding top level new personnel .
Sigh...I can't bear the thought of parting with Holland, Scheppers, Ogando, Perez, or Smoak. Give them Murphy, Davis, Beavan, another lesser prospect or two and be done with it. If it takes Smoak instead of Davis, then let's seriously start thinking about shutting this whole thing down. Throw Harden in the deal to save some money!
Texas is probably going to win the division if Holland can get healthy and be anywhere near as effective down the stretch as Hunter, Wilson, and Lewis. If the Rangers want to fill out the rotation, let's do it cheaply, because Lee mortgages our 2011-2013 seasons. Harden might do that trick in-house. So might a slightly-improved Feldman (Mike Maddux, work your Magic!). If we need to pick up a Carmona or someone of that ilk, then we should be able to keep this train moving all the way into the station.
Alternatively, let's hope JD and his scouts can pick out a throw-in or two in Seattle's lower minors that become steals in a couple of yrs. I guess at some point it makes sense to take a shot at this thing and let the FO work some more draft magic or prospect swaps. Don't forget about the potential of guys like Engel Beltre, Danny Guiterrez, Wilmer Font, and several other young pitchers that could hit their stride soon. We've got a strong base even if we do lose a couple of studs. Get a couple of draft choices for Lee, a couple for Guererro, and this thing gets rolling all over again, especially if the new owners can bump the payroll up by 20-25% or so and provide some short-term gaps.
I think this Rangers team as it is already wins this division going away. (LAA is just not a very good baseball team, and the Rangers are solid.)
NYY wins the AL East, and the Rangers finish with a better record than the Central winner. Rangers have to play Boston or Tampa Bay in the ALDS.
Lee gets you the ALDS by winning Games 1 and 4 (if necessary).
Rangers into the ALCS, hopefully playing the AL Central winner after an upset of NYY in the short series.
Giving up prospects isn't fun, but we have a bunch. I'd give up Holland, Scheppers, or Perez for Lee.
Give them Murphy, Davis, Beavan, another lesser prospect or two and be done with it.
Hilarious.
I'm really trying to understand why with a fluid situation like this it has become evident that relinquishing one of Perez/Scheppers/Holland/Smoak is becoming very likely.
Rays and Yankees are bluffing each other, I believe. Neither really wants to give up their top 25 prospects to get Lee. The BJ for Lawrie idea I believe, but Omar Beltre+ for Lawrie could also be under consideration.
Two blue chip prospects is the one rumor coming out of Seattle. I'm still not convinced any team will offer that, but if the Rays really are going after Lawrie, then they would have Lawrie and Hellickson to offer. I don't think the Rangers should beat that.
I have a hard time believing ML-ready guys are part of this discussion: Smoak, Holland, Davis, Salty. Well, I can believe Salty would be a part of the discussion. In general, though, ML-ready guys have too much cost savings to be tradable, except in the case of a logjam. Plus, Seattle has said they are looking for players who can contribute in the 2011-2012 time frame. That would be a AA level or ready to be promoted to AAA level type of prospect.
So, yeah, I think Perez is possible but I think he would be the top end of the bid the Rangers might make, and there is still quite a ways to go to get firmer information that other teams are offering like prospects. So far, I basically only believe the BJ for Lawrie idea. I think the Rangers either have to obtain Lawrie or beat that player to win this one (perhaps this is why Smoak's name was mentioned).
No to Smoak, Scheppers, Perez and Ogando. Yes to any combo of Salty, Davis, Beavan and (Omar) Beltre. Still think that the guy that puts the trade "over the top" is Holland. I would do it.
I would do Davis, Salty, and Beaven in a heart beat. Smoak is the 1B of the future so davis gets a fresh start he will not get here. Salty is not the Ranger's future catcher. Beaven is good, but not great.
Remeber, lee will be a type A so the Rangers will get two additional bites at the apple next yea AFTER the sorry ownership situation drags itself to a conclusion.
Holland and Smoak? No way. Not only are ther starters, but under club control for years.
Bottom line, this makes a ton of sense for Texas to obtain Lee, even if it costs a future All-Star. Remember it's easy to say there is always tomorrow, yet sometimes tomorrow never comes, especially when it is the Mariners or Rangers.
Totally agree, Justin.
The new Rangers ownership is not going to be increasing the payroll by a whole lot over the next few years. Greenberg raised almost all the money for his bid from Ray Davis and Bob Simpson, two men who I've been told by several people are very conservative, disciplined investors. They are not ego buyers (thus their willingness to let Greenberg/Ryan take the spotlight despite those two putting up only a tiny fraction (less than 3%, combined) of the cash for the deal)).
The Rangers aren't a team that breaks even with a payroll much higher than it has now. And even after an 87-win season last year and a pace to win 95 or more this year in what is looking very clearly like a playoff season, attendance is still right around league average (despite the Rangers having one of the cheapest average ticket prices in baseball). Local TV and radio broadcast ratings are still near the bottom of the league, corporate suite sales are basically non-existent, corporate TV and in-park ad rates are as cheap as can be found in all of MLB, etc.
Jack the payroll to $70, $80, etc. million and the Rangers will be taking double digit millions of dollar losses each year. Davis and Simpson aren't going to be doing that.
Yet it's going to take those kinds of numbers, at least, to keep this team together in a couple years. Just simply not going to happen barring some huge economic rebound that produces a lot of new ego buyers willing and able to take the major losses Hicks took for a decade. I don't believe that will be happening though.
So, yeah, give me the Lee rental now. I'd like to keep it to only one of the tier 1 guys and then a couple tier 2 guys (Davis/Saltalamacchia/Beavan/etc.), but even if it takes Scheppers and Smoak... it sucks, but we have a window of only 2 more years before we start to hit a hard ceiling, so we're not going to get many better chances than this.
If the Rangers had a 1 or 2 game lead and things were getting sketchy, I'd pull the trigger. With a 5.5 game lead, and with the Angels dealing with injuries, poor strating pitching, an underachieving bullpen, etc... I don't see why it's not reasonable to expect that they can win the AL West as currently constructed.
We already gave up a nice prospect for a catcher that's only going to play 1/2 the games... so giving up what will certainly be a Smoak/Scheppers or Smaok/Holland package is not a shrewd move by JD and co.
I say hold onto what you have... and keep plugging away.
There's a reason why JD built SP depth in the off-season; to overcome 2nd half injuries, dead arms, etc... and stay in the hunt.
Also, anything can happen in the playoffs. If Colby, CJ, and/or even Harden get hot at the right time, they could definitely win a playoff series... especially with home field advantage.
3 things:
1. The money issue has to be a big factor here, and it seems impossible to say where TX stands or what they can do at this time - so it's really hard to get a handle on this trade idea.
2. As much as I'd like to see Lee here in TX, I think it has to be considered a long shot if only for the reason that TB wants him very badly, and NYY will also try to swoop in and keep their competition from getting an ace like that. The TX heat & Ballpark jet stream will not help TX with Lee, either. Hate to sound like a negative Nelly, but I don't see how we can realistically think we have the inside track here.
3. As badly as Smoak has looked in the past 3 weeks, I really hope they don't trade him away, because I think he will make the adjustments necessary to be productive at 1B in the AL. I would like to see TX just try to add a couple of complimentary pieces rather than sell the farm for one shot at WS glory. I say this because I think they are ahead of the curve at this point, and still need another 1-2 years before they hit their peak with this group of guys.
Just thinking out loud, but why doesn't Nelson's name come up in these discussions? I don't think he's under control for much longer and I have to think that the club will be forced to choose between him and Josh on the one big OF extension. Don't you think a package centered around him, might get their attention too?
This team is in first place and on a serious tear with average contributions from the 1B position. It is reasonable to expect that we will continue to do so. We WILL NOT win an ALDS or WS without a starter of Lee or Oswalts caliber. Period. Won't happen. If we have a chance to pull the trigger on a deal for Lee that includes Smoak or Davis with all the other options mentioned, it is a slam dunk no brainer. Holland should not be included in that deal IMHO. Average MLB 1B-men grow on trees. Starting P's like Lee are like rare diamonds.
We can address 1B later. Make it a huge MLB ready players package and get some future prospects back with Lee. I say any deal that doesn't give up Holland is done. Do it. Get him. Now.
W
Hate to sound like a negative Nelly, but I don't see how we can realistically think we have the inside track here.
Not necessarily the inside track, but an equal shot, because of how much we have available to give away.
I'm a HUGE Mariners Fan and I would love the Mariners to take a dip into the Ranger's Talent Pool. OMG what a treat it would be to get either Smoak or Davis!!!
"OMG what a treat it would be to get either Smoak or Davis!!!"
Take 'em both. Take my wife. Please. Take my neighbors wife. (HOT!!) You can name my firstborn child. Just give us Lee without giving Holland back.
w
Sure, take Davis
Here's the thing; dealing for Cliff Lee makes sense, but we don't want to be the Atlanta Braves here. Remember that the Phillies got Lee AND Ben Fransisco for Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp, Lou Marson, and Jason Donald. That's two years of Lee for a whole lot less than what we're considering here. Lou Marson might as well have been Teagarden (albeit coming off a better season at a lower level that Taylor), Carlos Carrasco isn't much better than Guillermo Moscoso, Jason Knapp was a less advanced version of Wilmer Font, and Jason Donald is a decent backup infielder. Is a 2+ month rental of Cliff Lee worth more than 1.5 seasons of Lee along with another player (spare as Ben Fransisco is)?
If we want to use the CC Sabathia deal as a template, then maybe they do get Smoak. The Brewers did give up Matt LaPorta (along with three spares). If they do get a guy like Smoak, the other players in the deal should be C-grade prospects or lower. In fact, LaPorta might be closer to Chris Davis than Justin Smoak.
Seattle gave up three players to get Cliff Lee for the entire season. Phillipe Aumont was the 3rd prospect on their BA top ten list beforee the 2009 season but has struggled with injuries since then and his ceiling has fallen to that of a setup man. The other two prospects were once again spares.
Remember that Atlanta gave up Salty, Harrison, Jones, Andrus and Feliz for 1.5 years of Big Tex. Let's not be so stupid as to get duped the same way that we duped Atlanta in 2007. Cliff Lee is a great pitcher, but he's not worth completely restocking Seattle. We have a deep enough system that we should be able to offer a competitive package without clearing out a large chunk of our farm depth.
Our offer should consist of either one A with 2 C's and a fill-in or two B's and Two C's. If they want Justin Smoak, then they should be prepared to take Font and Velasquez to fill out the package. Davis, Beavan, Omar Beltre, and Sardinas should be a reasonable package. If we can't afford to deal for Cliff Lee's salary, then we shouldn't touch this deal with a ten foot pole.
Lee would be great, but we should put together a deal more like that of the Brewers (Sabathia) or the Phillies (Lee) than the one we got from Atlanta.
Justin and Dave H present good arguments. Justin Smoak is worth more than the risk associated with the 2 Cliff Lee draft picks. Trade him straight up for the ace.
Love Kelly's idea too: Trade Nelson Cruz (under team control through 2013) for Lee straight up.
Davis? Yes. Holland? I'd lean towards yes. Smoak? No. Salty? Eh, I'd lean towards no. Perez? LOL no
Zero chance that the M's will take Smoak straight up for Lee. They want more than one player for sure.
Oh, and one other thing to keep in mind. If Lee signs with the Yankees along with one or more other type A free agents, he could end up netting a supplemental pick and a 2nd or 3rd round pick rather than the 1st and supp. round picks that are generally assumed.
would a zack Greinke be a option i dont know would the royals trade a 26 year old stud and at about 7 million a year the price tag is not overly high
Let's not all assume that Lee will net two top 40 picks. If the Yankees sign Lee and 1-2 other type A free agents, he could end up netting a 2nd or 3rd rounder rather than the 1st round pick that everyone assumes. It's still likely that he'll accumulate a higher rating than the other available type A's, but it's not a given.
Damn, my browser is screwing up. Sorry for the similar/repeat post.
I still suspect that if they are holding out for a collection of players to rival the Tex deal that Lee finishes the year out in Seattle.
I suspect the best they can hope for is one top prospect, and that isn't even a fully guaranteed thing I think. It still just seems odd that Lee is worth more now then he was at any other time he was traded in the last year.
Rangers100 - TB has just as deep a talent pool as we do. I guess the Yanks don't, but they do have a bottomless pile of cash.
There is no straight up trade that the Mariners will accept for Lee. They know they have a grade A trade chip and will ask for a king's ransom for him. Do you really think that a team 16 games out will trade a player who can bring in 2 top prospects along with other high upside prospects for a 30 year old guy who plays the position of the face of your franchise and has been injury riddled all season? NO WAY.
You have to face the facts that at least one of Scheppers, Smoak, or Holland will have to go if the Rangers want to land Lee. Yes, looking into the future is important, but the future is now. JD has promised 2010 as the year for about 3 years now. I don't see Smoak's contribution this year differing that much than Davis and if we can get a guy who can go 9 innings without breaking a sweat every 5th day you will feel a lot better than staring wistfully at Smoak's BABIP looking forward to better times.
This is the year we have been promised. Lee makes us not only front runners for the division, but a legitimate title contender. Let's not let a love affair with prospects the reason we dont win now.
Since everyone keeps talking about getting someone thrown in the deal, do any of you think Sea has soured any on Michael Saunders? He was their top prospect but he's not a Jack Z guy.
Also remember, Cliff Lee's salary is $9 million, but on a prorated basis, it should be about half of that for the remainder of the season. Surely, the Rangers have around $4M hidden in a pillow somewhere (JD's secret plan). If not, then you might have to push Harden into the deal since his salary is $6.5 million. Of course, you'd have to convince Seattle to take Harden.
I like the point that making the playoffs is worth $25-$30 Million to a franchise. However, thats also a reason keep the high value prospects and run off 6-8 seasons of deadly serious World Championship contention.
To some extent, the persons/media who say "sell everything and go for it this season!" are pessimists; are shell-shocked by decades of Rangers baseball futility. To some extent, these persons cannot envision a 6-8 year run of dominance; cannot envision a Rangers franchise being a massive baseball power over several consecutive seasons. These pessimists are thinking small. Think big!
I love Cliff Lee. A good trade is always a good trade. However, the Rangers control a number of players who could be monstrous good over time. I don't want to see those players depart. I like Chris Davis; I like Beavan. If we have to give up Davis + Beavan type prospects, I am thrilled with a trade. If we give up Holland type prospects, we are small minded pessimists and we deserve to continue in baseball futility.
"You have to face the facts that at least one of Scheppers, Smoak, or Holland will have to go if the Rangers want to land Lee."
No, I think it's going to take Smoak AND Holland AND 2 other 2nd tier guys - like say, the two Beltres, or Beavan and Moreland.
If they trade Smoak, though, don't they have to also bring in someone to play 1st? Because I think everyone involved must wonder whether Davis can get it done.
If the Mariners want more than Smoak or Nelson Cruz straight up, then the Rangers should pass and wish the M's best of luck. Seattle is the team that is compelled to deal. If the Yanks get Lee, I hope the Mariners get an embarassment of riches.
Once again, we WILL NOT beat the NYY, TBRays, or even the MNTwins, for that matter, in a 5 or 7 game playoff series without a true ace. We have all the other pieces in place now. The lineup is a terror. The bullpen is deep. The coaches are getting everything out of the clubhouse. The financial situation is NOT going to improve much, even after the sale. We can do without Smoak, Davis and "future potential". The time to win is right now, and the Rangers can do it without selling out the farm.
Get Lee now. Worry about 1B later. Do it JD. Just do it. Close your eyes and picture Lee giving up 1.98 with this lineup, TWICE per series. Imagine.
The at least was directed toward the people who think the Rangers can get away with Davis, Salty, Beavan, and the like. More than likely it will take two of the elite players.
If Smoak goes then yes Davis can play first. Smoak is playing passable defense and has a good OBP. Davis will play great defense and has always played better during the stretch run.
Smoak, Scheppers + Beltre. Done. I like it. Take it Seattle. Take it and run.
I can't see Lee being worth Derrek Holland. Not for 1/2 a season. I maybe go Tanner Sheppers head up but only because of the injury risk. Harrison, Hurly, Bevan, and Salty or Beltre; no more for Lee. In a pitchers park Harrison and Bevan could be good.
I also think that possibly posters are selling Lewis, Wilson and Hunter a little short. The Rangers have an Ace; his name is Colby Lewis. They have a credible number 2 guy; his name is C.J. Wilson. They have a pretty good number three guy in Tommy Hunter. Feldman has been a disappointment has has Harden. They need to fill one of those two spots.
Here is a thought. The Indians had a pretty nice rookie start against Lewis yesterday. Why not go after a player like that. He'd be cheaper than Lee and might give you as much upside in 1/2 a season.
The Rangers don't need an Ace, the need a guy with an ERA under 40 who goes 7 innings a start.
"The Rangers don't need an Ace, the need a guy with an ERA under 40 who goes 7 innings a start."
So you want a guy who gives up just under 31 runs an outing? In all seriousness though to win in the playoffs you need an ace. I agree that Lewis, CJ, and Hunter are good pitchers, but you need that guy who you know will give up 2 or 3 runs every time he takes the bump. Lee has dominated the playoffs two years in a row now and this year he is looking better than ever. Make this happen.
Woah. WOAH! What?? Colby Lewis an Ace??? Cliff, please, for the love of Cy Young, retract this statement immediately.
"but you need that guy who you know will give up 2 or 3 runs every time he takes the bump. Lee has dominated the playoffs two years in a row now and this year he is looking better than ever. Make this happen."
This. x 10.
Cosign FullerTron
For everyone that does nto want to trade away our "prized" prospects please remember these names:
1. Ruben Mateo
2. Thomas Diamond
3. Jovanny Cedeno
These are all players that we did not trade because of how great they were going to be. It comes down to who the Rangers honestly believe can't miss.
I offer this package: Mitch Moreland, Justin Smoak and maybe Tommy Mendonca
I think anyone would love to get Cliff Lee, but if it take two elite prospects, we have to say no. Two five star prospects and two 3-4 star prospects would be absolutely ludicrous. I'll say again: look at the deals that the Brewers, M's, and Phillies made for Sabathia and Lee and compare them to the Tiexiera deal. Do you want to be Atlanta and give up multiple big-time players for a rental? Or should we try to be like the Brew-Crew and give up one premier prospect (LaPorta) and some guys who might be servicable? I think there's a happy medium. If it takes Smoak, Beavan, Omar Beltre, and Wilmer Font, that's fine. If you have to add Erlin or Ross to get them to take Harden back too, we should do that too. However, if it would take more than one of Smoak, Holland, Perez, or Scheppers, I'd hang up the phone immediately. Cliff Lee is not God. He does not guarantee anything.
That's a reasonable package Ron, and I'd be willing to add another guy like Beavan, Wilmer Font, Sardinas, Ross/Erlin, or Omar Beltre.
Smoak, Moreland, Mendonca, and Omar Beltre would be a far superior package to what the Brewers gave up for CC or the haul in either of the recent Cliff Lee trades. If that doesn't get it done, it's not worth it.
Once again, we WILL NOT beat the NYY, TBRays, or even the MNTwins, for that matter, in a 5 or 7 game playoff series without a true ace. We have all the other pieces in place now. The lineup is a terror. The bullpen is deep. The coaches are getting everything out of the clubhouse. The financial situation is NOT going to improve much, even after the sale. We can do without Smoak, Davis and "future potential". The time to win is right now, and the Rangers can do it without selling out the farm.
You forgot the most important thing - we have the classiest, most brilliant manager in baseball!