Friday Afternoon Rangers Notes: Cristian Guzman, Anyone?
Joey Matschulat
Cristian Guzman stands in against the Braves at Turner Field on Wednesday, June 30th.A few afternoon stories that are either (a) irrelevant in the grand scheme of things because they deal in the realm of impossible hypotheticals, or (b) are still developing as time marches by:
● Per a major league source, the Rangers have acquired .282/.327/.361-hitting middle infielder Cristian Guzman from the Washington Nationals in exchange for a two-prospect package (confirmed to be Double-A Frisco right-handers Ryan Tatusko and Tanner Roark); the deal was confirmed as of 4:30 p.m. CDT, but cannot be declared official until the accompanying paperwork goes through in the next 24 hours; Guzman agreed to waive his 10-and-5 no-trade rights to complete the deal (T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com)
[If you read/heard that the Rangers had pushed back the expected return date for Ian Kinsler (general manager Jon Daniels noted last night that Kinsler would be out beyond the minimum 15 days), you had to know something like this was coming. There's still a lot to be said for the whole "go big or don't go at all" mantra I've been harping about for more than a year now, but there's a pattern to the three non-Cliff Lee trades prescribed by the Rangers over the last 30 days: raising the production floor and increasing depth at sketchy positions while relinquishing little of real consequence. I'm still not a big fan of the Bengie Molina trade, but hey, whatever. I hope I'm wrong.
Guzman used to be something of a punch line around the Baseball Think Factory boards (think 2003-05), and it is for that reason that the two are inextricably linked in my mind, but the 32-year-old Guzman is a .297/.326/.403 (.319 wOBA) hitter in his last 1,514 plate appearances, spanning 2008-10; that's acceptable production from a starting middle infielder, and you can easily infer from that statement that Guzman, in his expected capacity (that is, the Rangers' top utility infielder, and probable fill-in at second base during Kinsler's absence), is a nice little pick-up. This is another low-impact move in the vein of the Jorge Cantu deal, but World Series-contending teams like Texas have good reason to pursue peace-of-mind trades. They have a lot more to lose.
In exchange for Guzman (and, per ESPN.com's Buster Olney, a $2 million subsidy from the Nationals that should cover all but about $650,000 remaining on Guzman's 2010 contract), Texas yields Double-A Frisco hurlers Ryan Tatusko and Tanner Roark. There's more to see in Tatusko, who has pitched well recently and works low in the zone with an 88-92 mph fastball and "solid" breaking ball, but Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus notes that he "doesn't have the stuff to miss bats," which is a little disconcerting for somebody whose upside is probably that of a middle reliever. Roark's acquired a reputation for pounding the strike zone, but is a "fringe" prospect with a decent fastball and inconsistent secondary pitches. Overall, it's the fair, low-dollar price you'd expect to pay in a deal such as this. Adios, Señor Arias.]
● In spite of a spirited attempt by the Chuck Greenberg/Nolan Ryan ownership consortium to circumvent next Wednesday's auction of the Rangers by upping the total cash in their bid by $40 million (achieved by stripping some, if not all, of the various and sundry side deals out of their proposal), Fort Worth bankruptcy judge Michael Lynn has denied their request to have the new CRO-approved bid approved, meaning that next Wednesday's auction will go ahead as planned (David McLaughlin, Bloomberg News)
[This "substantially enhanced" bid would have sufficiently nourished the coffers of the Rangers' most problematic creditors, including Monarch Alternative Capital, but they raised a huge stink about it, as did prospective bidder Mark Cuban, whose lawyer declared that a Cuban-driven bid could possibly topple even the most lucrative Greenberg/Ryan bid. The revised bid would have apparently not paid Tom Hicks for assets included in the original deal, such as the parking lots and the Ballpark's center field office building, but the bid will apparently be reverted back to its previous value as a consequence of Judge Lynn's rejection. Greenberg/Ryan's last -- and perhaps best -- chance to purchase the team may have just come and gone.]
● The Rangers are reportedly shopping both Rich Harden and Scott Feldman around; as an odd coincidence, Harden will supplant Feldman in the Rangers' starting rotation and start against the Angels on Saturday evening; Ron Washington cited Feldman's "experience" in the bullpen as part of the ballclub's motivation for the move (T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com)
[I wouldn't read too much into this, as teams dangle players on the market all the time -- sometimes with no serious intent of trading them right then, and sometimes knowing full well that they won't make a deal without being floated an outrageous offer. As far as the implications of the rotation switch-around, well, now is the time to figure out whether Harden can still salvage something from this horrendous 2010 campaign of his, and the opportunity cost of shunting Feldman to the bullpen for a while is minimal. At very worst, Harden implodes again and is released in mid-August, earning Feldman back his rotation spot back; at best, Harden ends up being a late-season/post-season asset of some sort. But I wouldn't count on it.]
● While the Rangers were hammering out yesterday's Jorge Cantu-to-Texas deal, they inquired about the availability of ace right-hander Josh Johnson and offered up their top three prospects; Florida declared that Johnson was untouchable, and no further conversations ensued (Joe Frisaro, MLB.com)
[Martin Perez, Tanner Scheppers and Engel Beltre? Considering that Johnson is (a) one of the best pitchers in baseball and (b) signed to a below-market deal through 2013, I think that's a virtual no-brainer, but it gets a little more interesting if you lob Neftali Feliz and/or Derek Holland into the basket. That said, Johnson isn't going anywhere, so does it really matter?]
Reader Comments (43)
How the hell does JD keep this up? I mean, Guzman's salary is 8M this year? I like the idea, but what prospects do we give up here?
MLBTR says "two good pitching prospects".
I'm hearing two "decent" pitching prospects that aren't ML ready. My guess is Castillo and Hamburger, or something along those lines.
I like this more than than the Cantu trade.
Love the trade.
As for the bankruptcy stuff, I'm getting the feeling that Greenberg/Ryan will have a smaller operating budget going forward if they win the auction than the other bidders. Therefore, I'm in favor of the Judge's decission.
MLB.com's Bill Ladson is calling them "good" prospects, but this is an extremely subjective term and I would heavily advise against reading too far into it. I think Jon Heyman called the prospects in the Haren trade "excellent" or some such when only one could possibly be classified as a top-100 prospect (Skaggs).
Update: Jason Cole is saying on Twitter that RHPs Mark Hamburger (A+) and Elizardo Ramirez (AAA) have been dispatched to Frisco. I suspect at least one of the pitchers in this deal is a RoughRider.
Tatusko is one of the guys, per TR.
Somebody minors-knowledgeable once remarked to me that Tatusko is a future scout. In other words, an organizational pitcher more so than a legitimate pitching prospect.
Kiker has been sent to the Rangers' Arizona complex, per Jason Cole, so the second player isn't necessarily at Frisco.
Frisco: "We're gonna' need some more RH pitchers."
It's Tatusko and Tanner Roark. Per Buster Olney, the Nationals are kicking in around $2 million to make the financials work.
This is another one of those peace-of-mind trades with little tangible benefit beyond having a safety net there and veteran presence/leadership/what not. Again, though, the Rangers gave up very little.
This says to me that we can expect to see Kinsler in September.
Guzman still has about 23 hours to say no to this deal since he is a 10 and 5 guy. Although I don't see why he wouldn't want to come to Arlington.
You know, with all that's going on in court, you really have to take your hat off to JD and Co.. I sure hope the new ownership realizes how strong he has been lately. You could make a strong case for him being GMOTY. Somebody could throw some serious dough at him.
I'm pretty sure even 99' wasn't this exciting. This is fun.
I believe Guzman has already ok'd the trade so there shouldn't be a problem with him saying no.
JD will walk away with exec oty. New ownership will keep him, period. I wouldn't worry.
Yeah I just saw on MLB Network that he accepted it.
A ESPN Insider columnist wrote a piece about young superstars being dealt and made a fake trade proposal between the Giants and Rangers. This wont happen of course but what would you think of it if it was a possibility?
RHP Tim Lincecum to the Texas Rangers for RHPs Scott Feldman, Neftali Feliz and Tanner Scheppers and CF Engel Beltre.
How many years of control for Tiny Tim? If at least 2 beyond this year, then I'd do it.
Okay, I think we're good. Can we stop trading all our prospects now?
BTW, I think Guzman will give Andrus multiple days off, too. He's hit a wall with his bat.
Hmmmm....I like it sans Feliz. Who could take Feliz' place and still make it work?
I think I'd have to pull the trigger without giving up Feliz.
I think the Giants would laugh at that trade proposal. If you add Martin Perez to that, they might think about it.
Joey- Is there any potential comp for Guzman? He strikes me as a Type B level player at first blush.
I'm out of town and have limited time/access to BBTia... so i need someone to PLEASE update me on the recent moves.
Who did they give up for Cantu?
Who did they give up for Guzman... and how long is Kinsler supposed to be out?
Any other rumors swirling around?
I don't know how the giants would feel about it either but i wouldn't make the trade if i'm the rangers, Timmy is great but is as young as Feliz is and the upside from what he is now witch is not too shabby is too much to give up.
Pablo -
Evan Reed and Omar Poveda for Cantu.
Tanner Roark and Ryan Tatusko for Guzman
Kinsler on 15 day DL, expected back mid-August. Injury not considered serious at this time.
No other real rumors at this time, but I'm no journalist.
@ Pabloesque:
It appears that the total compensation for Cantu and Guzman (plus $2.6m in salary relief) is Evan Reed and Omar Poveda for Cantu and Tanner Roark and Ryan Tatusko for Guzman.
Kinsler is on the 15, and there is no definitive word that he will be out longer than that, but some of the tea leaves (the Guzman deal, the 25- and 40-man consequences of the Cantu and Guzman deals) would seem to indicate that it may be most if not all of August. But nothing for sure yet.
Surprised that no one has mentioned the last paragraph about the Rangers looking into also getting Josh Johnson. if they could have pulled that off this team could have been the favorite to win it all.
Love the Guzman acquisition.
Either Arias or Blanco must be gone. The Rangers will likely have 24 hours to make a decision/trade prior to Guzman reporting. I assume?
Just a throw-it-out-there question:
Which/how many SP prospects do the Rangers still have who are better than the best of Tatusko/Roark/an injured Poveda?
My list looks like this (off the top of my head):
Scheppers, Perez, Holland, Feliz, Hunter (yes, I know those last 2 are on the BL roster, but young enough that I'm still counting them), Kirkman, Font, Ross, O Beltre, Erlin, Thompson, Gutierrez, Boscan, Pimentel, Moscosso, Kiker (I don't know what to make of him now, but I guess he still has "upside" that those traded pitchers don't), Wieland, Brigham, and maybe Rojas, Ballard, and Blier. Am I missing anyone? Am I underestimating the value of one of the traded pitchers (maybe Poveda)? You have any additional names, Joey?
I bet they trade Harden for a couple of pitching prospects to replenish the depth they just lost.
Only other rumor is the Rangers are shopping Feldman and Harden (a real surprise?) and that the Mets and Brewers may be interested. But I don't see why those teams would take on Feldman's contract... possibly Harden though but still don't see anything happening there.
Scheppers, Perez, and Beltre for Johnson? That probably would've been well worth it considering JJ has multiple years left.
Yes, goodbye Arias (hopefully). But there is NO way they can both still be here. Hell you may not even need either one considering Guzman plays multiple positons, Moreland plays multiple positions, and Cantu plays multiple positions. Blanco's defense does have some good value though.
Even if Kinsler's injury is not serious, Guzman is a good back-up infielder and should be considered a major upgrade over at least Blanco.
I can see teams inquiring about Feldman and/or Harden for two reasons....
1. The team is at a transistional level (building wise) and need a decent arm to eat up some innings until some AAA or AA guys are ready.
2. Teams know that once Hollland comes back that these two guys could be expendable and might be able to get them for mid to low level prospects.
Scooby: You could probably still make an upside case for Neil Ramirez, as well, but yeah, I think you have it covered pretty well. FWIW, the indications are not good on Kiker, but I think all of the scouting-oriented types (Parks and Cole, and MJH to a lesser degree) have known that for a little while now, and if you search the archives, you'll find one of MJH's Frisco game reports from a month or two back which is very uncomplimentary of Kiker. As of right now, he sounds more like a LOOGY than a viable SP prospect.
With Guzman now in the fold alongside Blanco, I think it's safe to assume that they're going to hold Kinsler back until at least Sept. 1 and try to get him playoff-ready from a health standpoint. That, and the fewer games he plays, the less wear he places on his troublesome ankle/groin, and the fewer opportunities he has to horribly maim himself before the post-season. Furthermore, bringing Kinsler back before Sept. 1 would require sending Moreland back down, or DFAing one of Cantu/Blanco/Guzman, and I think they're loathe to mess around with that.
Joey and Scooby -
Not having seen a game or the two pitchers involved, I am going to disagree with both of you to a point. Both Roark and Tatusko had achieved some measure of success in AA, Tatusko to the point I would assume of getting some consideration for a promotion to AAA. We could and should talk about upside when evaluating prospects, but not to the point of ignoring the concrete achievements of others. To that point, several of the pitchers on Scooby's list haven't achieved what Roark and Tatusko had achieved. It doesn't seem fair to these guys to look down our nose at them because of their lack of percieved upside. I can remember reading in this space not too long ago that Mitch Moreland was hitting well at Bakersfield, but he was old for that league, so don't get excited. Now he's in the show. Tommy Hunter got assassinated in print after struggling in his first run at the bigs. Blake Beavan had his fair share of doubters here, but all he did was get guys out (is there a box in a scouting report for that?). When you can throw the ball into a dixie cup like he can, all you need is a little more movement on your pitches and a "back of the rotation innings eater at best" can become a staff ace pretty quickly. Time will tell what happens with him, but it's in his hands, and he's young with a long road in front of him. My point is that Roark and Tatusko were in fact prospects and have so far proven themselves capable players at the level they were playing at (I'll add that these guys are still in their early to mid-twenties). The Washington National thought enough of both of them to pay a portion of Guzman's remaining salary. To put some of those players in Scooby's list above them unabashedly places perceived upside above production and I think there should be perhaps a more measured evaluation of these players. Here's a list of Scooby's players I would not put above them: Gutierrez, Ballard, Brigham, Thompson, Bleier to name a few. Look, I'm not saying I necessarily dislike the trade, all I'm saying is let's not say we got Guzman for nothing.
Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.
It also appears to me that a bunch of the guys traded were candidates for rule draft loss anyway. The Rangers are streamlining their system. Better to get something more the $50,000 for these guys
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Both Guzman and Cantu are the type of guys that WS teams have on their bench. Molina fills a pressing need.. JD is not always perfect but thei past year he has been very good. Only the Harden move has not panned out. Imagine what we'd be seeing if Harden had an ERA like C.J. Wilson?
Christian Guzman is an excellent pickup... He gives a Spanish-speaking mentor to Elvis and can play all infield positions... He's critical... We traded off, yet again, prospects that had marginal big-league potential to obtain him... And with Ian's strained pride (which is similar to Harden's sore ace), I think we made the right move... Good work, JD... Visit my blog at charlesrangersreport.wordpress.com
"It also appears to me that a bunch of the guys traded were candidates for rule draft loss anyway."
Yes. Excellent point. I can not recall the details, but reading through last year's list I remember thinking the next year was going to be very, very difficult.
One thing that does bother me is the heavy weighting towards pitching and the under weighting of position players in the minor leagues. It would have been nice to avoid all this trading, especially considering the additional players thrown in because of cash flow issues, and just call up players as needed.
Hopefully, the next round of draft choices will be more balanced.
After Oswalts performance, or lack therof, last night, I just feel compelled to give JD even more credit for pursuing the "correct" SP in Lee. It wasn't too long ago there was some fairly heated debate on which one was the best option for TX. I know it's only one game for Oswalt, but I thought all along this was a no brainer for this year's playoff run. Triple kudos to JD. Three good/great deals, and one "meh" deal. (BMolina)
IMHO, I think he's one of the top three GM's in baseball now.
The only way I sign off on Mark Cuban is if he keeps JD and gets his fat wallet out for Lee. If not for the obvious wanting the best LHSP in baseball, then just to piss off the Yankees.
THANK YOU ALL FOR PROVIDING INFO TO ME
The Rangers need to hold onto Feldman. They will need him as a starter next year when Lee bolts for the Yankees and if one of their current starters gets injured.
It sure would be nice if the Rangers could pick up a can't miss catching prospect for the post-Molina era.
What's going on in that department?
Good to see all the support for JD, but he has traded away some good pitchers who are now starting for other teams. But we better hope that Nolan does not leave. He's the one that got JD on an even keel.
I think it's silly to believe that Nolan came in and somehow propped up JD or got him back on "even keel". JD's success, IMHO, has more to do with his gaining valuable experience as a young GM than it does with Nolan Ryan. I give Nolan his due credit with bringing in a certain attitude and respect for the organization, but i'm more inclined to give JD more credit for maturing in his position.