The Final Word On Bengie Molina
Joey MatschulatAbout 36 hours and one highly forgettable game -- which I'll refrain from commenting on, although thinking back, it's odd that the Rangers effectively played for one run in the bottom of the third inning with a no-out sacrifice bunt, but didn't play for one run in the top half of the inning by keeping the infield pulled back with a runner on third base and one out -- have elapsed since the trade, and after having had some time to ponder it, to analyze it, to digest it, I've unceremoniously concluded that I'm still not a fan of it. I understand why it was done, but that doesn't mean I like it. I doubt very many of those residing in the prospect-educated camp do like it.
ESPN.com's Jayson Stark stated yesterday that he was a fan of the Bengie Molina-to-Texas deal, even going so far as to suggest that San Francisco would come to regret it because Molina "is a winner." With all due respect to Stark, that, in a nutshell, symbolizes the source of some of the backlash we've seen against this deal: In a baseball context, what does it really mean to be "a winner?" Moreover, what value does such a nebulous attribute bring to the table? I think "veteran leadership" -- another popular baseball buzzword closely associated with Molina -- does give you something, particularly on a relatively young ballclub that lost its de facto leader to free agency (Marlon Byrd), but people notice the underwhelming statistics, find themselves overwhelmed by vague baseball-ingrained descriptors and naturally become suspicious. It's not surprising.
With Molina's projected rest-of-2010 offense being roughly equivalent to what we would expect from either Matt Treanor or Max Ramirez (and, for that matter, inferior baserunning), strong defensive/leadership qualities are a necessity rather than a luxury; absent those, the Rangers would have likely done just as well plucking a replacement-level backstop out of somewhere. With no good way to quantify the value of leadership, but while still acknowledging its presence, we turn to Molina's defensive chops -- something which has eroded, per various anecdotal reports, because old, bad-body catchers don't typically hold up well in that regard.
When I say "defensive chops," I'm referring more to the physical aspects of the position that immediately spring to mind -- throwing out baserunners (and not committing errors while doing so) and preventing passed balls/wild pitches. He's presumably still stronger in that regard than Max Ramirez, whose defense behind the plate has been described by Jason Parks as "fringe-average," but arguably not as strong as Matt Treanor; in other words, it's an upgrade, but one of the marginal variety. Of course, Molina's forte -- and the apparent driving force behind this deal -- is his game-calling ability, something which is separate and distinct from those aforementioned aspects of the catching position.
Not even the world's top sabermetricians really understand how to quantify perhaps the haziest component of catcher defense, which leaves only the conviction of baseball people in its value. I'm inclined to play things safe and neither dismiss the value of game-calling nor go overboard in extolling its virtues, but let's say for the sake of argument that the difference between a really great game-caller and a below-average one is around two full wins per season (that might be overstating the case). With Molina likely slated for 50-60 percent of the playing time going forward, that's around one-.half of one win added above and beyond Max Ramirez, or several million dollars of value.
In a pennant race, one-half of one win can help make a difference, but here's a converse point of view -- pitch framing (or the catcher doing whatever necessary to help generate more strike calls) may not be a part of the total game-calling package, but is something that is given a fair amount of attention in the context of catcher defense. Matthew Carruth of Lookout Landing/FanGraphs examined the value of pitch framing back in February, compared a perceived pitch-framing leader (Kenji Johjima) to a purported weakling (Rob Johnson), and found that the difference over a full season amounted to a whopping two runs. That's it. Two runs. We can't pretend to understand everything (anything?) about the catching dynamic, but count me among those inclined to play it conservative when it comes to internally valuing it.
Look, we get why this deal was made. The Rangers felt they needed to find catching reinforcements sooner rather than later, and ponied up for the reliable what-you-see-is-what-you-get veteran type. It was never my intention to paint Michael Main as some sort of untouchable super-prospect, because he's not; rather, he was a good medium-upside pitching prospect that was expendable in the right deal. The thing about it is, I still dislike what it represents, because Texas still overpaid for what was likely a very marginal overall upgrade -- and not in money, but talent. Were that to become a longer-running trend, the strength that is the Rangers' farm system would not be a strength for very long. For now, I'm just going to trust that there won't be any such trend.
Reader Comments (34)
None of this would have been necessary if the Ranger's hiearchy would have just signed Pudge Rodriquez to a 2 or 3 year contract and been done with it. Pudge is still hitting in the neighborhood of .300 with the Nationals at mid-season! He stole a base the other day, will Bengie do that? He would have been a great game caller for our young staff and a huge coach and mentor to all our young players. Letting Pudge slip through the cracks is probably the biggest blunder of the Ryan-Daniels era!!!
I'm certainly no sabermetrician, just an observer of baseball since the early '60s, and I must say it's hard to understand this trade. And I don't. All I can do is hope that, internally, there were circumstances beyond public knowledge that made this trade a necessity. Yet, I doubt it, but at the same time I leave open the possibility that the Matt/Max platoon was not a sustainable situation. Maybe the distrust of Max made it that way, and maybe Matt is more banged-up than has been reported - he has absorbed a lot of impact coming down the line from third base this year.
I think you've missed the best benefit of the Molina trade. It vastly increases the odds that Cliff Lee gets traded to the Rangers. Seattle after seeing how easily the Giants fleeced Daniels for a marginal catching upgrade now know the best deal they can make is with Texas. The M's may ultimately be able to restock their farm system by sending Lee to Arlington!
Don't re-sign Pudge and now trade Main for Bengie.
Crap.............................................................................
Having thought about this a bit I seriously think the Rangers should fire everyone associated in the minor leagues with catcher development. I know that not all rookies make it, but three for three and now having to trade for Pudge last year and Molina this year.
Heads should roll.
I guess it does no good (around here) to bitch about the horrible/stupid manager the Rangers have. He's the reason the Rangers aren't going to the playoffs (much less the WS.) He's going to lose you game himself almost every week.
All you guys that love him - you can love him all you want but he's a sucky, dumb, stupid manager. PERIOD. And he loses ballgames all by his dumbass self.
For those saying resign Pudge you would rather have Pudge then Colby Lewis or Darren Oliver? If you answer yes here, just stop talking baseball.
We have, apparently, zero budget. I would not have done that trade, but in essence we sold Main for salary purposes. I absolutely hate it, and that hate mostly goes directly to Tom O. Hicks. He is the main reason we are in this situation right now.
Jon,
That would be Scott Servais and I agree.
I think your use of the Matt Carruth study here is a little flawed. Your implication is that the difference between a "good" pitch framer and a "bad" pitch framer is two runs per season, but that's not necessarily what the Carruth study concluded. What he concluded was that the difference between the Johjima abilty to frame pitches and the Johnson ability to frame pitches was two runs. Also, Johnson was generally considered to be the better pitch framer (at least by the fans) so Carruth was surprised that the statistics showed Johjima to be the better framer. The reality is that these two catchers probably have similar abilities in this area thus a small two run difference over the course of a season. I have know idea what the difference is between a "good" framer and a "poor" framer but it is entirely possible that it is a more that two runs. The Carruth study does not address that issue.
For that matter, though, I don't even know if Treanor/Ramirez are good or bad pitch framers. I do think the Rangers pitchers have been "squeezed" on more than a handful of times this season. That may be bad/inconsistent umpiring, or maybe just umpires that favor hitters. But it could also be a reflection of the catcher's ability to frame pitches. I don't know the answer but I will be watching for evidence of Molina "improving" the Rangers in this area as the season goes along.
A catch and throw catcher with great game calling abilities is a critical piece of the defensive equation for winning baseball.
It would be interesting to see how the pitching staff performed behind Pudge last year vs. all the other Ranger catchers. Any offense is a plus.......but defense has to rule.
The game really doesn't change that much from Little League.......give me guys that can catch and throw at all positions and you will always give your team a chance to WIN
Joey, good take but don't ever throw any respect to Jason Stark. Aside from the former ballplayers (John Kruk ,et al) he is the worst analyst at ESPN. He is a complete moron (one or two IQ points above Joe Morgan). I rarely see anybody be as bad at their job and still hold onto it as Jason. He once argued that there was too much time off in between an LCS series and the world series when one team would sweep and another would go seven games (as if that could be remedied, I guess by making the other series instantly a best out of five). Everyone is dumber after reading his columns and may God have mercy on his soul.
Also, that question was baiting by a former FJM reader, and frankly Jason is an easy target. I'm sure that he, Steve Phillips, and the rest of the simpletons eat their lunch at a seperate table from Klaw, Neyer, Tim K., etc.
What the reaction to this trade from Rangers fans and from the national press tells me is that there is no substitution for watching a team day in and day out. The positive things said about Molina described the player Molina was last year, and who he was for a brief moment early this year. Go to McCovey Chronicles, the Giants blog, if you really want to know the truth about Molina--unanimous relief that this guy is off the team. I don't even care what we got back.
For two years straight, Molina has chosen the critical time in the season to allow passed ball after passed ball, and to become an offensive zero. He has poor fundamentals behind the plate, and is the slowest runner in MLB. He is so slow that he cannot advance from first to second on most hits or bunts. He needs a hit to advance. He needs three base hits to score from first. It is like nothing you've ever seen!
Well, this really sucks. I didn't mind the trade so much when the PTBNL was thought to be a non-prospect. But the truth is, Max's defense was hurting the team and needed to be fixed. We are really in need of an upgrade at that position, and hopefully, Benji can regain some of his form from the past. We really have the best defense we've had in quite some time. MY's range is actually better than passable this yr, and now that Smoak has made major improvement at digging out low throws, Young's error rate has vastly improved.
It doesn't sound like Molina is going to be a lot better than even Ramirez behind the plate, if what the Giants fans are saying is true. But if his bat comes around, he'll make a contribution.
1 thing that nobody has ever thought about concerning this trade. If there was no financial issues, it could have been Molina for Main! They had to throw in Ray for the $$. Nobody ever thought about this. I feel that this is the case. Also, who says Main is going to make it. That is why you trade prospects, that is all they are prospects. They are no guarantees. Molina is a winner, a vet and someone that can help this team win now. Finally, there are 6-10 pitchers in the minors that I would rather have then Main (Scheppers, Perez, Beaven, Erlin, Ross, Font, etc.) Everyone is in love w/Main, how cares, let it go. We have a chance to win now so lets look at it that way. Finally, Seattle needs hitters not pitchers. They will look at someone like Davis, Moreland, the Catchers on the farm, etc and maybe 1 pitcher. This trade does not hurt the Rangers at all.
First, Pudge was not the answer BEFORE this season. He was asking something like 3 mil and 2 years. For a team that thought they had two solid MLB catchers in Salty and Teagarden ready to break out, there was no way you could justify giving Pudge that money with their budget. Or could you even justify giving Pudge either one of those two's PT? (Again, before the season. Now you would prob welcome the idea of having Pudge with open arms).
Was it just me, or did anyone else have a problem with Molina's pitch calling last night with Feliz?? For all the talk of how great he is at calling a game, why did he put down 19 straight fastballs last night before finally mixing in something else? I realize Feliz has a power fastball that was around 98 last night, but he would get ahead of them with 3 or 4 fastballs, then they would have it timed enough to put the bat on it and made some things happen. He finally threw a curveball to the last hitter of the inning (last pitch too) and he had zero chance. With some of the 0-2 1-2 counts in that inning, you couldn't have even worked in something offspead if for no other reason than to mix up the hitters' timing?
Fred, why would we have thought about that??? I don't think anybody was too upset to learn of the trade being Molina for Ray. Once it was learned Main was thrown in everybody started to hate it. So, technically yes we thought about it being Molina for Ray, and we were okay with it. You're entire argument makes zero sense. There were NO guarantees Main was going to make it. Well, there's no guarantees Scheppers, Perez, Beavan, Beltre, Ogando (he's on his way to making it), Strop, Font... (do we need to keep going?) are going to make it either, so you would have been just as cool with trading one of them for Molina? Or trading any of them going forward for a "vet," even if that vet brings very little to the table?? I think Joey made it very clear... it's not so much that everybody was just in love with Main--it was more of the fact that if you're going to start selling some of those guys, we would prefer to see a return better than Bengie freaking Molina.
And don't think Seattle isn't going to demand a top pitcher. Every team in the big leagues wants front line pitching prospects, despite you're opinion of prospects in general.
Wow, I'm just glad you guys aren't running the Rangers!!!! You can "project" stats all you want but Treaner and Ramirez haven't come close to Molina's production lately.That's noy even taking into consideration the fact that Ramirez's defense really took a nosedive over the past few weeks. Main may turn into something or he may not. Either way, with the pitching prospects we have, this was a good trade. I wouldn't have said that 3 weeks ago but the "projected" Ramirez hitting ability never showed up and he was a disaster defensively. It looked like he had turned a bit lazy behind the plate. This is a move to win now and I don't believe Main was to much to give up.
Stop the talk about the money being an issue in this trade. Isn't that why the Giants are giving the Rangers some cash, to take on the rest of Bengie's salary?
Also, am I the only one thinking that we could now deal Max Ramiriez for Mike Lowell with more peace of mind? Knowing that we have a stable catcher to lean back on. I find nothing wrong with this trade at all. In fact, I like it.
Ray was for Molina. Main was for Molina's salary. Blame Hicks. QED. I'll refrain from commenting on Pudge, but now that I've brought the subject up, his 300 batting average is bolstered by a fantastic April. He hit less than 250 for May/June.
SMZ--what production are you looking at???? We are talking about 2010 right, not some other year??
Treanor: 56 games, 186 PA, 37 H, 5 HR, 23 RBI, 17 R
.233/.313/.371 .250 BABiP .306 wOBA 8.1% BB% 18.2% K% 0.6 WAR
Ramirez: 28 games, 85 PA, 15 H, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 8 R
.217/.341/.348 .277 BABiP .316 wOBA 14.1% BB% 31.9% K% 0.1 WAR
Molina: 62 games, 225 PA, 53 H, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 17 R
.257/.311/.330 .269 BABiP .283 wOBA 6.2% BB% 9.2% K% 0.3 WAR
If that's not similar production, I don't know what is. (Couldn't you argue that Treanor has been better than Molina?) Yes, looking at what Max has given offensively, I think most people would agree the Rangers needed an upgrade there. Joey has been saying it for months. That is NOT the problem. The problem is their idea of an upgrade isn't much of an upgrade at all and cost the Rangers an average average prospect at worst (some people considered Main a top 10 guy in an organization filled with talent). If you're going to sell those guys, fine, that's one reason you build that kind of depth. But don't sell them for a guy who doesn't make you better, or marginally better at the very best.
Does anybody put any credence in the word of "opposition" fans who purport to to be giving the low down on a player/situation? If I could be bothered to post on a Yankee blog (for example) it would be to have a little fun and stir up trouble. Come to think of it, at least half of the posts at DMN.....
@ Drew Perfectly correct - but the house of cards comes tumbling down if Treanor's health doesn't hold up. Don't discount all that surgery.
I absolutely agree. I liked the deal for Molina before Michael Main became the PTBNL, and then I was wholly disappointed.
"I guess it does no good (around here) to bitch about the horrible/stupid manager the Rangers have. He's the reason the Rangers aren't going to the playoffs (much less the WS.) He's going to lose you game himself almost every week.
All you guys that love him - you can love him all you want but he's a sucky, dumb, stupid manager. PERIOD. And he loses ballgames all by his dumbass self.
July 3, 2010 at 9:36 AM | Unregistered CommenterJames Mason"
Now it makes perfect sense - James Mason is in the 8th grade!
"I liked the deal for Molina before Michael Main became the PTBNL, and then I was wholly disappointed."
Agree.
Well if you don't think that Molina brings a big-time leader to the Catcher position need to open your eyes! Anybody how is a little better then Molina would cost us more in prospects. I liked Main, but we have a lot of more pitching depth then hitting depth in the minors so while I would have liked to have him, it does not kill the Rangers. I hoped that he would be traded for Lee/Oswalt. Finally, we have depth in the minors and if the Rangers ownership can get finalized before the deadline, they still have enough to get them without gutting the system. Remember, not all prospects make it. Remember we would have never traded Salty, Teagarden, etc. 2 years ago for just Main and Molina is a lot better then these 2. I do think Molina lead a pitching staff to a World Series Championship!
James Mason is in the 8th grade!
I dont care if he is in Kindergarden, I think he is on to something... and I would like for us to have a MLB quality manager... dont know who, but some of you guys should.
at least JM has my vote
NO, I dont HATE Wash... not at all
but some of his decision are ...... well questionable
@Drew, If you don't think Molina will be an upgrade over Ramirez based on more than just the last two months, you haven;t been watching the games. I know some fans of this site will find it hard to believe but baseball is more than just stats. This isn't a fantasy league. Some things don't show up in the box score but winning teams know that defense (such as stopping wild pitches) and working well with the pitchers is by far the most important part of a catchers job. Once again, Main MIGHT turn into a decent major leaguer but Molina IS a legitament starting catcher. I like Treanor and he is a valuable backup but Molina is better; it's as simple as that.
I love the Rangers, but Texas fans suck. What a bunch of negative Nancy's. I think Main was a bit much and don't feel good about him being gone, but catcher was a huge hole on this team. Treanor was not going to last the season playing as often as he has, which has been nothing more than better than expected. I think Molina will hit much better in the AL and especially in Texas. He will also see much of his time against lefties whom he is hitting well against THIS YEAR. If you havn't noticed there are not a helluva lot of catchers available out there and the two opening day catchers, Teagarden and Salty suck. Geez if you want to be pissed off start with them. I don't think we will be calling Arlington Benjiewood, but I expect most will be glad Daniels did this deal by season's end.
I think the thing to remember: Nobody has said they are against Molina (only what he cost). I guess we are all just upset at the whole financial situation. Wouldn't it have been nice to just get Molina without giving anything. Is this a bad trade? Well, I guess it depends on your opinion and the end result. But, it's not Danks for McCarthy so JD has done worse. Molina once WAS a legitimate catcher, but he's very average now. But, there is something to be said for experience and defense from a catcher, and even if he's average, that's probably better, even if only slightly, than what they had. It's just a shame we had to part with a prospect you would rather have seen leave for a Lee or Oswalt type.
Gotta agree with Drew. If the financial situation wasn't as bad as it is, I'm not sure that there would be as big of an issue.
Anthony in Australia,
I am not an "opposition" fan. The Texas Rangers are not even on my radar. To be a Giants fan and hate the Rangers would make no sense. I am just a baseball fan in general, and like to read opinions. This is the first time I have even posted on this blog. I just had to because after the Molina trade, I read the press on both sides, and was astounded at how different the accounts were. And, as I said, this is a great trade for us.