The Unstoppable Cliff Lee: Part II
Cliff Lee delivers a first-inning pitch against the Athletics on Tuesday, July 27th.I thought I had all but eschewed the writing of individual game recaps/stories/reflections in favor of more broad-scale analysis, but there's still something about those special moments -- you know, the walk-off wins and/or brilliant individual performances -- that hit me hard on a visceral level and compel me to do otherwise. Those are the moments that serve as jolting reminders that we need to sit back and enjoy the present, because you just don't know if the future will ever measure up. Those are the moments that deserve a little more love than the run-of-the-mill regular-season game.
And to the great surprise of nobody, Cliff Lee was again the focal point of such a game, spinning nine innings of one-run, zero-walk, 13-strikeout baseball -- and coming away with the no-decision for his troubles -- before Nelson Cruz launched his 10th-inning walk-off blast into the left field seats. It's more than enough to make me wish that I had reserved my one major shot at an extensive Lee-centric Pitch f/x analysis for this start rather than his eight-inning effort last Thursday (although that was interesting enough in its own unique way), but it's no real setback, as we can paint a sufficient picture of what rendered him successful last night in far less than 3,000 words.
With the caveat that the Athletics "boast" one of the five worst offenses (.317 wOBA) in the American League (and thus never had much of a chance to begin with), I think Lee's approach against Oakland's righty-heavy lineup is worth highlighting; the locations of each of the 100-plus fastballs Lee threw last night are plotted on the below charts, and you'll notice that only 12-14 such fastballs found the middle third of the plate, an area of the plate where hitters tend to feast. Aside from this ratio being below his recent career norm, Lee clearly placed a strong emphasis on attacking away, away and then away some more, with even the majority of the balls either being chased or just eluding the strike zone:
[Legend: Red dots are hits, blue dots are outs, yellow dots are swinging strikes or foul balls, green dots are swinging strikes outside of the strike zone, and white dots are taken pitches. Data courtesy of ESPN.com's Inside Edge scouting service.]
The second thing I wanted to point out is Lee's cutter, which I already touched upon in some detail last week but wanted to revisit. The amount of lateral break -- or right-to-left movement from the catcher's perspective -- that he produces with the cutter is relatively extreme and a significant factor in the pitch's effectiveness, but it proved especially dominant last night, as he managed to induce seven swinging strikes out of 34 total cutters thrown (good for a 20.6 percent swinging-strike rate against a season average of 8.2 percent with the cutter) and generated nine total outs, including three swinging strikeouts, two strikeouts looking and four garden-variety batted-ball outs. Brilliant.
In the last significant pre-July 31st deal in which the Rangers were a buyer, the principal piece -- in this case, Carlos Lee -- generated 0.7 wins above replacement during his two-month stint in Texas before departing in free agency and signing an ill-fated $100 million contract with Houston. Through his first four starts with the Rangers, Cliff Lee has already surpassed his C.L.-initialed predecessor by generating 0.9 wins above replacement. That isn't intended as a straight-up comparison of the two trades, as the Rangers relinquished far more talent in the latter deal than in the former, but I suspect even the most vehement naysayers of the Cliff Lee trade have to be ecstatic about the results to date. What a damn fun ride this is turning out to be.
[Incidentally, only 26 left-handed pitchers in major league history -- including Lee, as of last night -- have logged 13 or more strikeouts in a single start while not yielding a single free pass. Among those names: Randy Johnson (12 times!), Sandy Koufax, Vida Blue and Steve Carlton. The only other any-handed pitcher in Rangers franchise history to do so was Nolan Ryan, once in 1989 and once in 1990. Furthermore, there have only been 20 individual game starts in the last 20 years where the starting pitcher logged at least 88 strikes while throwing no more than 118 pitches. Cliff Lee has now accomplished that feat twice in the last 35 days, including last night. Think about that.]
25 Comments | in Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (25)
Great Read...
I have to admit that I was a touch skeptical about Lee pitching in our ballpark... but it seems to make no difference where he pitches, he still dominates.
I also have to admit that I didn't know he was THIS good.
The fools that place Lee and Haren in the same sentence are well, fools!
For the 1st time to date, I actually feel as if we have a legit shot at winning IT ALL... oh what a feeling.
And by actually WATCHING the 10th last night, I ended the curse of the Rangers not playing well when I turn on the game (they do much better when listenining...). So, I just wanted to announce on here that the "pabloesque Jinx" has been removed!!!
The fact that over half of the pitches are on the outer-third of the plate? THAT is sexy.
Just went through Adam Dunn's stats and didn't realize he's only 30. I believe he's paid $10M this season and becomes a FA at season's end.
If the Rangers could send a nice package to the Nats and get Dunn to sign a reasonable extension; 4 yrs/$42M (something in that neighborhood)... would he be worth a Scheppers/Ogando/Moreland type package? Is that too much/not enough to give up?
He could average 45-50 HRs with the HR porch in RF... he'd be scary and would make this lineup one of the best in baseball. He strikes out alot but he's been consistent throughout his career... and he's a .400 OBP type guy. Ah, to dream...
BTW - I would only endorse this move if he re-signed... and there's obviously no guarantee he would... but if you throw $42M (income state tax free) at him... and he'd pretty much be guranteed another contract when he's 34 or 35, he would probably jump on it.
Pablo - if they're going to spend money, man I sure wish they'd persuade Cliff Lee to extend his stay in Arlington for a few more years.
How about Adam Dunn AND Cliff Lee for 2011? One can dream...
and this is where the Rangers ownership situation bites so badly ... but once it's resolved (and hopefully in favor of RBE), the FO sits down with Lee and his agent and makes the following presentation:
- 4 years, $20 M per year; 5th year option (mutual) @ $25 M, that vests if certain performance levels are achieved (CY Awards, post-season appearances, etc.), but if Lee voids the deal, he gets a $3 M buyout ... if the Rangers void the final year, Lee gets a $5 M buyout
- since this is a "business venture" that we're asking Lee to "sign on for", the FO will need to "sell the plan", if you will, going forward ... things like marketing strategies to tap potential revenue sources, budgeting constraints going forward (if any, and what they would be), etc.
- this is where the FO needs to put on the "full court press", IMHO ... sell Lee on the concept of not just being "a guy" in New York or elsewhere, but instead "the guy" in Texas ... that he has a chance to front an organization on the rise ... a chance to be identified with a "new day" in the history of the Texas Rangers ... while we may not be able to match an offer (dollar for dollar) from the Yankees, we certainly can offer other "intangibles" that could be used to promote our offer (proximity to his home in Arkansas, less pressure from the media (the anal exam that is the New York media might actually work to our favor) ...
We'll just have to see how things play out ...
maybe our new owners can swing that......
Have we EVER had a pitcher this good put on a Ranger uniform? We've had some good ones, but Wowza. Sure wish we could have scored a couple more runs with him in there. By the way, here's another Cliff Lee impact with a nod toward the other starters not named Feldman...
A fresher bullpen. Thank you, Cliffy!
Great time to be a Ranger fan.
@swamp guy - that's a helluva plan, I like it! If Cuban buys this team, I can guarantee you he will NOT let the Yankees outbid him for Lee's services. Also, with Cuban as the owner, FAs will flock to Arlington.
Can you imagine what JD could string together with a $125M payroll?
The crowd last night was something special. Most of the lower bowl was on its feet for most of the last few innings, and didn't even sit between innings. Wow.
Nelson Cruz is really good at baseball.
Imagine what a beating that loss was for the A's.
what's up with that one pitch on that dude's kneecap? j/k
I think we could definitely persuade Cliff to stay. No one is talking about how he is from Arkansas. I mean its a 45 min flight to Little Rock from Love Field. Benton is a "suburb" and I use that term loosely of LR. Arkansasans stick to their roots, so why would he go anywhere else!
No one is talking about how he is from Arkansas. I mean its a 45 min flight to Little Rock from Love Field. Benton is a "suburb" and I use that term loosely of LR. Arkansasans stick to their roots, so why would he go anywhere else!
Richard Durrett asked him about that. Doesn't sound like a very big deal to him.
The crowd last night was something special
Props to those who went... but it was still 28,000 for the best team in the 50-year history of the franchise with arguably the best pitcher in the game currently, pitching in one of his few remaining home starts.
That's small market level stuff.
Pablo - if they're going to spend money, man I sure wish they'd persuade Cliff Lee to extend his stay in Arlington for a few more years.
How about Adam Dunn AND Cliff Lee for 2011? One can dream...
Where would Dunn play? He's a horrible fielder and only a slight upgrade (.392 wOBA) over Guerrero (.372) as a hitter this year.
As for Lee, it would be awesome to sign him, but he's not worth what we'd have to spend on him. With unlimited money, yes... but with a ~$65M payroll ceiling, no.
That's how baseball in Arlington go.
Does anyone know why the Farmprobs site is inactive. I sure miss their coverage of the Rangers minor league teams.
Let Vladdy walk after the season and upgrade with Dunn.
Obviously, Vladdy has been magnificent, but he is 35. Can he keep going forever?
Complete the sale and the new owners, wanting to make a splash, extend both.
Winner, winner, chicken dinner!
Rangers100: You're right that Cliff Lee doesn't seem to care about proximity to Arkansas as a factor for where he'll land. To get him locked up long term it's going to take one big thing: money. Now if the offers are even, proximity to Arkansas and the less intense DFW media might win out over New York, but he's going to be really expensive.
As for Adam Dunn, he'd play first base. I'm not saying he'd be an excellent idea, but if you're convinced that Chris Davis won't ever put it together (consistently), he'd be a decent option at first. He hasn't been good defensively at first; however, last season was his first with more than 30% of his innings spent at first base. It's not wholly unreasonable to expect him to improve his defense once he's locked into 1B. At the very least he will provide much better defense than Prince Fielder. Like I said, I'm not completely sold on him, but I also haven't given up on Chris Davis (yet).
As far as payroll is concerned, we can't even really venture a guess until the ownership situation is resolved. It seems that by August 12th we'll know who will be taking the reigns. If it's Greenberg/Ryan, the transfer will happen almost immediately. If it's a different bidder, the situation might not be completely resolved until late October-November. It does however, appear that we will know who is taking over very soon, so before the end of the season JD and company should have an idea of their real budget going forward. Now I feel that the ceiling of 65 million that you threw out there earlier seems to be rather low. However, I think it's far more realistic than anyone thinking some new owner (Cuban) will come in and throw down a 125 million dollar payroll in the near future. I think that 75-85 million is far more likely than either number.
I think we could definitely persuade Cliff to stay. No one is talking about how he is from Arkansas. I mean its a 45 min flight to Little Rock from Love Field. Benton is a "suburb" and I use that term loosely of LR. Arkansasans stick to their roots, so why would he go anywhere else!
Okay, but if there's a $10-20 million differential in the total value of the contracts being offered by, say, the Rangers and the Yankees (and I have a difficult time believing that the Rangers, given their various and sundry issues with ownership right now, are going to one-up the Yankees in a bidding war), I'm not sure why Lee feels like giving Texas a proximity-based discount.
Yep, re-signing Lee is a pipe dream I think. We need to lock up Josh and concentrate on our youth. Enjoy the Cliff Lee 2nd Half Experience, and be sensible about the future.
If Marky Mark wants to come in and throw his bones at Lee, and become some weird incarnation of a Steinbrenner-ish owner, ok.
I don't trade for Dunn right now. Just not worth the price tag.
However, if we can get him for 4 years, $42 million after this season, which I think would be reasonable, he's a good DH and part-time 1B/RF. It's a lot of time/money to commit to a DH, but he could RAKE at RBiA.
The priority would be signing Lee, which is not out of the question. Assume Vlad comes off the books, that frees up $5.5 million, Harden (assuming buy-out) gets us $5.5 million. Granted, most of that money will go to arbitration, but with new ownership, playoff revenues, and a new TV deal, ~$20 million per year is not out of the question. Plus, with most of the team back next year, there's no reason we can't compete in 2011 and only get better.
Winning and money have to be the two biggest factors in Lee's search. I think that Cliff Lee will go to the highest bidding team that is lined up to be a conteder over the next five seasons. If the Pirates, Astros, or Orioles somehow outbid the Yankees and everyone else for Lee's services, I don't see him signing in a pit of despair like those organizations, but out of the teams that should be contending for a while, I think he'll follow the money.
Now I feel that the ceiling of 65 million that you threw out there earlier seems to be rather low.
What makes you think that?
I've spoken with people who have seen the financial model the Greenberg/Ryan group was presenting to potential investors, and it modeled in ~6-8% annual payroll growth estimates. I don't think any new owner (including Cuban) would have anything very different right out of the gate... with a club not even profitable at a $55M payroll in recent years. So calling payroll $60M this year, 8% growth (high end of the range given a playoff season) would put next year around $65M.
Lee's going to get offered a lot of money by some of the big market teams, money that Texas won't be able to match. Really our only hope is if he takes a great liking to this group of guys, or that he decides that Texas has such a bright future that he will have a better chance of winning here than elsewhere.
I think we all have to admit that these are very slim prospects, and that it would be a miracle if he signed here.
Someone above mentioned Vlad going off the books? Lord I hope they resign him to another 1 year deal - he's been SO crucial to Josh's season, as well as Nelson Cruz's. He's been in a down turn, but he carried this team for the first 2 months of the season.
I also agree that Dunn will be very expensive, and so we have little to no chance of signing him - and that he's not really a great hitter. However, he does get on base, which more than makes up for his poor average. And there's the lefty power that should equate to huge numbers in Arlington.
I think the big issue that is behind the need for someone like Dunn is that you simply can't carry a 1B who is hitting below .200 with minimal power for an entire season - winning teams can't, that is. So something will have to be done to address the 1B problem at some point. Nothing against Davis - I expect even he would admit that he's not gotten the job done here.
I was at UA at the same time as Cliff Lee, and while I do not in any way claim to know him, I do know a bit of him on a personal level (hey, it was a small campus back then). I would be shocked, shocked, if it turns out proximity to home played no factor in his eventual team. He loves to hunt and fish in Arkansas, and his kids are in school there. He is a huge fan of the Hogs.
Having said that, he has two very good friends on the Yankee starting rotation. CC is one, but the other is Burnett who is from Bryant. Byant is about two miles from Benton. If the Yankees have any advantage over the Rangers its the bond he already shares with their other starters, and not so much the huge money they can throw at him.
So, I think the one major way the Rangers keep Lee is if he's able to form some solid friendships in the clubhouse that could rival the ones he already has in New York. If that happens, then yes, the location will become a major factor.
Rangers100: The vast majority of sources have the Rangers' 2010 opening day payroll at $55,250,545. However, if you include the entire 40-man roster plus buyouts, they were actually at $64,810,570. They're still about the 3rd-4th lowest payroll in baseball, it's just a different way of accounting for things. I would assume that the higher number is what they actually use when considering their budget. If they actually stick to an 8% increase, that would be about 70 million when including the buyout and extra payroll for the whole 40-man roster.
If the Rangers buy out Vlad and Harden, non-tender Brandon McCarthy, and all of their arbitration eligible players have the same salaries that they did in 2010, their payroll would be about 50.1 million. Now, it's nearly impossible that the arb-eligible players won't get significant raises (at least most of them). If Hamilton and Wilson double their salaries through arbitration becoming 6.5 and 6.2 million respectively (still a little low I think), Cruz bumps to 4 million (perhaps on the low side too), and the rest of the arb-eligible players get modest raises (no one else bumps up over 1 million), the Rangers payroll would jump over 65 million. This assumes that the Rangers will make no attempt to resign any of their free agents or to persue any other FA's who would command more than the MLB minimum. It's quite possible that Cruz gets more than five million, CJ more than 7, and Hamilton around 10 in arbitration. That alone would push this team over 70 million. If they sign one or two players in the same vein as Vlad, Harden, or Molina, that 75-85 million dollar range I threw out there doesn't sound too far-fetched.
Essentially, you're starting range for this years payroll (60 mil.) was about 5 million less than the tally I have. Add that 5 million to your prediction for next year, and your 65 turns into 70 million. If you want my estimated range in the conventional scale (25 man roster only), it would go from 75-85 million down to 66-76 million. We're really not too far off Rangers100.