Minor Mysteries: Matt Thompson
David
Matt Thompson - Photo courtesy of Scott LucasThis is the first in what promises to be a series of articles that will present a statistical oddity from the performance of a prospect in the Rangers’ system and a likely explanation. David will play the role of baffled sabermetrician and Jason Parks will play the role of sage scout. We hope you enjoy the performance.
Matt Thompson was drafted out of high school by the Rangers in the seventh round of the 2008 MLB draft. After a brief stint in the Arizona Rookie League in 2008, the right-hander spent the 2009 season pitching for Spokane in the Northwest League. Among the 32 pitchers in the short-season league who tossed at least 50 innings, Thompson ranked 22nd in strikeout rate at 6.6 K/9, 16th in ERA at 4.38, and 16th in WHIP at 1.36. Thompson did excel in two areas: He ranked first in walk rate among starting pitchers in the Northwest League at 1.2 BB/9, and he was among the league leaders with a 54 percent groundball rate. These data are consistent with a pitcher who has excellent command of relatively mediocre stuff.
The off-season was apparently a productive one for Thompson. During Spring Training 2010, Jason Parks made the following note on the Facebook page for BBTiA:
“RHP Matt Thompson looked sharp during live BP. With slightly altered mechanics, Thompson's fastball had more life that allowed him to miss bats. His curveball was good when I first saw it during the 2008 Fall Instructional League and it continues to improve. The pitch that has taken the biggest step forward is his change-up, giving him the arsenal to project as a solid No. 2-3 starter.”
Thompson began his 20 year old season in 2010 and destroyed the South Atlantic League in his first ten starts (10.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 2.79 ERA in 48.1 innings). Kevin Goldstein took notice and passed along the following quote from a scout:
"(Thompson’s) absolutely the perfect projection pitcher. We're talking 80 delivery, 80 arm action (on the 20-80 scouting scale), and it's easy to dream on. He's 88-92 mph now with sink, an average curve, and average change, but he could really move in the future."
Using the four stats that are most commonly used to evaluate the performances of pitching prospects (age relative to league, K/9, BB/9, and GB%), Thompson compares very favorably to three SAL pitchers who are generally regarded as top 100 prospects: Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino, and Jarred Cosart. Intriguingly, the eight starting pitchers from the last five years whose age, strikeout, walk, and ground ball rates from Low A-ball most closely resemble Thompson’s is replete with top 100 prospects and major league pitchers (see table below).
Note that the pitchers in the table below were not selected based on name recognition, but were in fact the eight most statistically similar pitchers from the past five years:
And then you look at the batting line for Thompson’s opponents: .306/.333/.416. The average batting line for hitters in the South Atlantic League this season is .255/.322/.376 Despite striking out significantly less (7.7 K/9) and walking significantly more (3.0 K/9) against other pitchers in the league, SAL hitters have been far more productive against Thompson. The key difference between Thompson and the rest of the league’s pitchers is Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). Thompson’s .388 BABIP is nearly 30 percent higher than the league average. One might brush that off as bad luck until taking note of the 24.3 percent line drive rate that Thompson has given up this year and the .301 BAA (batting average against) and .349 BABIP that he gave up in the Northwest League in 2009.
The startling dichotomy between Thompson’s peripherals and the hitting line of his opponents becomes more apparent when you compare the BAA for the pitchers who were discussed in the table above:
M. Thompson -- .306 BAA
J. Cosart -- .224 BAA
D. Delgado -- .237 BAA
J. Cruz -- .256 BAA
J. Parker -- .251 BAA
F. Doubront -- .260 BAA
T. Herron -- .240 BAA
J. Cueto -- .191 BAA
P. Hughes -- .192 BAA
And therein lies the mystery. How can Thompson miss enough bats to strike hitters out at a 25 percent clip, have the control to walk just 4.5 percent, have the command/stuff to induce nearly two times as many ground outs as fly outs, and still allow hitters to bat .306 and slug .416 against him? To answer this great riddle and to discuss whether Thompson is likely to develop the ability to make hitters less comfortable at the plate, I present the good Professor.
JASON PARKS
Thompson is still developing as a pitcher, and sometimes the side-effects of lower-level development can scar the stat sheet. At this stage of the game, Thompson is working to refine his fastball command, and to continue the maturation of his secondary offerings. His fastball has some natural weight to it, but he has to keep it down the zone in order to be effectve. When he elevates the pitch, and offers the hitters a flat-plane view of the ball, he is susceptible to hard contact; right-handed batters have taken advantage of this so far in ’10. His average fastball velocity doesn’t afford him the luxury of getting away with many mistakes, especially when he is throwing too many bad strikes*. This is certainly reflected in the statistical record.
Another thing to remember is that when a pitcher is trying to work in a specific sequence or off of a script, the results aren’t always indicative of the developmental progress being made. If Thompson is trying to focus on his change-up against left-handed batters (for example), he might go away from his regular sequence and throw the pitch early in the count, or he might throw a first-pitch curveball to a left-handed batter with runners on base in order to refine his ability to use the pitch in any situation. There are always developmental factors at play.
You mentioned Thompson and the ability to make hitters uncomfortable; this is very important. Making hitters uneasy in the box is one of the most important aspects of pitching. The ability to offer up controlled unpredictability is what makes pitchers with good stuff great. Being able to execute a deep arsenal, that you can manipulate and command, is the key to making hitters uncomfortable.
Matt Thompson is a talented pitcher with a bright future, but he is still in the early stages of his development. I can’t say for sure that he will develop the ability to make hitters uncomfortable, especially at the higher levels, but he has a natural feel for the mound, and the intelligence to utilize his arsenal. He has a long way to go, and the stats might not always show the progress being made, but I think he has the talent to become a mid-rotation starter down-the-line.
[* Bad Strikes: Showing control by locating the pitch in the strikezone, but lacking the command to put the pitch in the desired location, away from the hitter’s wheelhouse.]
Reader Comments (23)
Excellent piece. What Jason described is along the lines of what I saw during Thompson's start. My best comp for Thompson would be Stolmy Pimentel of the Red Sox. Same kind of repertoire and results. If batted ball data were better in the minor leagues, I would suspect Thompson's curveball was responsible for the vast majority of the swings and misses and opponents were being very aggressive early in the count gearing up for the first fastball they saw. The only reason I'd rank Pimentel a tad higher is due to an extra tick on the radar gun.
Great article! I can't wait to follow the rest of this series.
Mike - Thanks for stopping by and adding to the discussion. Although I'm sure that Jason will stress the individuality of prospects, your Stolmy Pimentel comp for Thompson appears very accurate. Pimentel's strikeout (7.9 K/9) and groundball (41%) rates rate last season in the SAL were a tick below Thompson's, but his walk (2.2 BB/9) and hit (10.3 H/9) were very similar. Your thumbnail scouting report of Pimentel that you posted here (http://scoutingthesally.com/2009/10/breaking-down-baseball-americas-sally-top-20-for-2009-part-3/) and that is quoted below is highly reminiscent of Thompson. For those who are interested, Pimentel graduated to Salem (Boston's High A affiliate) this year and has produced a 4.21 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and a 48% groundball rate in 94 innings. Unless Thompson's command or stuff takes a big step forward next year, those are the type of numbers that I would expect from him when he graduates to High A.
Mike's Pimentel Report
"Stolmy Pimentel, SP, Red Sox – With a 92 MPH fastball, curveball which flashed plus, and room to grow, Pimentel was impressive. Yes, he gave up more hits than innings pitched, but as his fastball command within the zone improves, his peripherals should as well."
Terrific idea for a series, and a well executed one, too.
Great read and wonderful idea. I'm sure glad I stumbled upon this site. This place is now my first stop in the morning.
Great new piece, looking forward to the rest. Thanks.
Great read. Love the idea. Thanks David!
Wow! As usual, I have more info than I could ever ask for... thank you!
BTW - Angels 7.5GB; was the Haren move more about next year or for the stretch run this year? They absolutely stole him but I don't see him, and the other move they made, really making that big an impact THIS year... your thoughts?
Pablo, I think they gave up a better pitcher than they got...
IDLE THOUGHT:
after our new owners are decided, we should trade someone to Arizona for Saunders to complete our pitching staff ... I think he would LOVE to pitch against the Angels.
I just have a feeling Saunders was about to come on strong, and he is a year younger..
How is this place the only place to give fans real scientific explanation of the sport we all love? The time taken to explain and educate has greatly increased my appreciation and enjoyment of baseball. Keep it up!
BBTIA,
Can you recommend a good football blog/website? Team is irrelevant, but something similar to this about football?
Love,
Joby
Most Excellent! I think this is exactly how scouting/stats are best used constructively.
My only gripe is with some wording by the Professor, and I'm being highly technical and anal here, but it rubs me the wrong way when strong words like "This is certainly reflected in the statistical record." Strictly, a statement like that should only be made if an indicator of pitch type could be used to hypothesis test.
So, yeah, nerdy review there, especially since I think this is the right way to do this, and I'm really looking forward to other reviews.
This and the AOFP series really opens my eyes into how player evaluation is meaningfully done.
BTW -- what does an 80 arm action mean?
Nice article guys. As one who's seen quite a bit of Thompson this season, I can offer a couple of my own opinions. Much of the reason for Thompson's hittability to this point has been that his sequences have been very "scripted", almost to the point of predictability. It's obvious that they are trying to teach him to command certain pitches, even if it means throwing many of the same pitches in succession. His "unscripted" outings have been his best. He has also been exclusively using a four seam fastball, which he can control with pinpoint command. Although he gets many of his strikeouts with this pitch, it is certainly more hittable than if he were to mix in a two seam with more movement. Once he's able to adopt a more fluid and unpredictable pitch sequence, as in his last two outings, I believe you should see the slugging numbers come down, and his overall effectiveness go up.
Schmoe -
Thanks for the input. It is great to have someone weigh in who has seen Thompson several times during the season. It sounds like Thompson might be on the Tommy Hunter program. I saw Hunter several times in AAA in 2008 and 2009 and it seemed that he went fastball-fastball-curveball-change to every hitter that he faced.
Are the other starting pitchers in Hickory using similar scripts in their outings?
Would you agree with AJ Preller that Robbie Erlin is likely the most intriguing under-the-radar pitcher in the Rangers' system?
nice idea for a series you two.
was the other series about the top prospects not going to be finished? Just haven't read one of those articles in the past couple of weeks? Loved this one.....but hopefully this list will be complete
I agree with whoever said they thought Saunders was better than Haren. Saunders still has room to improve (he will), and I believe they picked up Haren to try and come back at the Rangers.
I faced Thompson my senior year of high school. What I remember of him seems to line up perfectly with this report. He had good velocity, yet it didn't seem to be overpowering (like a Jordan Swagerty, Blake Beavan). He had a good breaking pitch that was tough to hit, but when facing him nobody seemed intimidated or overwhelmed. Yet, we struggled to score off him as well. It was frustrating because you felt you should be crushing him yet at the same time you knew he was very good.
Matt's a great guy too... Grew up in the Mansfield/Burleson area. My wife used to take care of him and his little brother. I watched my him play select ball as a teenager. It's been awesome to watch him on this journey. I know these "intangibles" don't mean squat to sabremetricians but he has an incredible work ethic, respect for authority, and team-first attitude. Hopefully, he never gets traded. I'd love to see him in a Rangers uniform for his entire career.
@billydpowell and Adam: Haren was the better pitcher in this deal, and it's not even close. Over his career, Joe Saunders has amassed a WAR of 7.9 to Dan Haren's 29.4. In terms of fielding-independent ERA (FIP), Saunders has a 4.64 career average and is sitting at 4.70 in 2010. Haren's FIP is at 3.68 for his career and 3.86 this year. Saunders' xFIP is 4.69 for his career and 4.94 this year. Haren's career xFIP is 3.60 and is 3.31 this season. Their traditional stats (W/L and ERA) suggest that they've been fairly similar this year; however, the peripherals suggest that Saunders has been about right (if not lucky) and Haren has been extremely unlucky. Haren's xFIP would place him right between John Lester and Jered Weaver and ahead of the likes of Lee, Lincecum, Oswalt, and King Felix.
We're all enamoured with Cliff Lee's K/BB ration are we not? Well only Lee and Halladay have a better K/BB ration than Haren. In fact, Haren K/BB ration is actually lower than it was in the previous two seasons. Saunders' K/BB is at 1.42 this year and only 1.71 for his career. Haren is at 5.14 this year and 3.96 for his career.
If you don't want to take my word for it, that's perfectly fine by me. However, I'm fairly certain that the only number that provides any support for Saunders being any better than Haren is career winning percentage, and that really only provides evidence that Haren has received far less run support over his career than Saunders has. If you look at the actual quality of the pitchers and not the teams surrounding them, I think you'll find that Haren is in a completely different class.
@Dave H. - I agree... it's not even close. Maybe Billydpowell and Adam are remembering the 07 or 08 version of Saunders... when JD wanted him and Santana for Tex... or at least that was the rumor.
Is Haren Cliff Lee... no way... but he's a #1 on alot of teams.
So I just read on CNNSI that the Rangers are in on Jorge Cantu. I would love that move... even if they had to send Chris Davis and someone like Arias or Boggs back in the deal.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/baseball/mlb/07/27/cantu/index.html
I'm also intrigued by the Adam LaRoche rumors. I know very little about him but his numbers look good (except he strikes out too much). I would imagine that him and Cantu will need a similiar haul to make them a Ranger... but this is where JD's brilliance comes in handy.
How about Julio Franco? (I'm joking... clearly joking)
BTW - looks like Harden dominated last night.
WOW, wouldn't it be awesome if he gets back on track? You can hardly trust him... but what if he strings together 4 or 5 good starts in a row?
Lee/Harden/CJ/Colby/Hunter would be tough to contend with... especially when you factor in Holland and/or Feldman and/or Sheppers giving the pen another arm or two.
Dave H & Pablo
I bow to your wealth of information and intelligence...... I was using my "Wash" gut feeling... and it seems to be letting me down.... but his isnt.... I take my hat off to Wash, he has got the boys playing real baseball, and I love it... I think he has grown into a MLB quality manager, something I have faulted him on..... a pat on the back from the old wronghander.... bp