The Scott Feldman ... Mistake?
Scott Feldman throws a pitch in a game in which he took the loss on Saturday, July 24th.Well, that was awesome, if not a tad bittersweet. The first-place Rangers largely performed as they should have performed, particularly on the pitching side in their first two tilts against the Angels last week, and again find themselves perched atop the division by a formidable seven-game margin ... and yet, even though there's not a single player in baseball that could pull Anaheim even with Texas insofar as 2010 is concerned, I think most astute baseball observers will ultimately conclude that Sunday -- which produced the Dan Haren-to-Anaheim trade -- was a banner day for the Angels organization.
To be clear, there are some aspects of this deal which we're not yet clear on (such as why no other cash-flush organizations, e.g. the Yankees, submitted a better offer, and whether that reflects some sort of industry-wide concern about Haren's long-term health), but in viewing this through the day-after prism, it seems that the Angels divested themselves of a mediocre -- and increasingly expensive -- veteran southpaw in Joe Saunders, a pair of mid-level prospects, and a good but not great pitching prospect (Tyler Skaggs) in exchange for a perennial All-Star-level pitcher signed to a below-market deal through 2012. That's not a good thing for the post-2010 Rangers' post-season odds.
But I'd prefer to divert the conversation away from what the Angels are doing for their future and towards what the Rangers aren't doing in the present, which is not jerking Scott Feldman out of his precariously-held rotation spot after an abortive 5.1-inning, three-run effort against the Angels on Saturday. Per manager Ron Washington, Feldman remains scheduled to make his next start this coming Friday in Anaheim, which would, I suppose, constitute a far more questionable decision if the Rangers actually had a viable -- and healthy -- stand-in waiting nearby. Alas, they don't, unless you'd like to watch Matt Harrison fumble around as a starter again. More on that in a few moments.
Since my intrepid cohort Josh Garoon last checked in on Feldman three months ago, a few aspects of his overall pitching performance -- namely, his left-on-base percentage and still-hefty BABIP -- have improved, but just about everything else has either remained static or worsened. His strikeout rate has again dipped below the 5.0 K/9 mark, his swinging-strike rate (5.8 percent) is the fourth-worst of its kind in the American League, and his fielding-independent ERA (4.71 FIP) has quietly drawn closer to total congruence with his bloated ERA (5.46), all of which has prompted both myself and others to ponder the wisdom -- or lack thereof -- underlying his lucrative pre-season contract extension.
The thing about that extension, though, is that Feldman is what we should have expected him to be going into it -- a pitcher in close proximity to a true-talent 4.75 FIP baseline, which is exactly what the PECOTA player-forecasting system projected him to be not only in 2010, but 2011-13 as well. Contrary to popular belief, that sort of mediocrity has value, and arguably enough value to justify what he's being paid, but that doesn't answer the question of whether the extension should have been granted in the first place. They're two separate and distinct matters. And despite my then-approval of the extension, there are a few things I don't believe I caught in my initial analysis.
Again glancing at Feldman's pre-season PECOTA forecast, you find that even his 60th- and 70th-percentile projections had him pegged for a 4.60-plus FIP, as well as an ERA north of 4.50. Knowing what we know about how quantitative factors such as ERA are weighed in salary arbitration hearings (which directly influences the out-of-court arbitration settlements), and considering his present salary ($2.425 million) and then-likely regression from last year's performance, I think one could pose the argument that the Rangers, given the most likely scenario, could have secured Feldman's services in 2011-2012 at far less than $11.5 million by simply sticking with year-to-year arbitration. The potential two-year savings could have conceivably amounted to $3-4 million and simultaneously kept the non-tender option available if things took a turn for the worse.
Now, obviously, part of the reason for that extension was some motivation on the Rangers' part to show that they're eager to reward good performance, and making that clear to their younger talent by putting their money where their mouths were. I suspect the value in sending that sort of message is not remotely equivalent to $3-4 million of sacrificed financial flexibility, but hey, it is what it is. However, what if the Rangers could escape from that extension by virtue of making him available via waivers (and hoping some team was inclined to take a flier), or cutting a salary-dump deal in the next week for a marginal, Matt Hernandez-esque return?
Dealing Feldman -- and I'm not convinced any team would assume the entirety of his contract right now -- whittles down the Rangers' rotation depth to practically nothing, and as I noted late last week, the only real upside in doing so is if you can allocate the $11.5 million saved in such a way that it offsets the loss in pitching depth (e.g. a significant upgrade at catcher/first base), or take that money in the off-season and use it as a pot-sweetener in the pursuit of a front-line starting pitcher that you otherwise couldn't sign, or financial flexibility to accommodate a trade you otherwise couldn't afford.
In other words, there's some sense to the idea of trading Feldman, but it only makes sense if you make productive use of the money saved by means of bankrolling further roster upgrades; trading Feldman just because he's struggling like hell this year accomplishes little, and very well could hurt Texas down the road, given that the only locks for next year's Opening Day starting rotation are Colby Lewis, C.J. Wilson and Tommy Hunter. Somebody's going to have to eat the rest of those innings, preferably while pitching at a few ticks above replacement level, and Feldman remains a pretty decent bet to do that, even if his rotation spot might be better employed through the remainder of the 2010 season as a place for Derek Holland and/or Rich Harden to audition for the Rangers' impending post-season run.
All that said, the safest bet of all for Feldman might be placed on his ability to keep us perpetually on the edge of our seats. That's just what zero-margin-for-error pitchers like Feldman do.
[Credit goes to Lone Star Ball's Adam Morris for inspiring this post. In tomorrow's edition of "Things I Hate," I'm going to write a 2,500-word post about why I still hate Dean Palmer for committing the game-ending error in Game 2 of the 1996 ALDS. Or something.]
35 Comments | in Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (35)
Yawn.
I feel like Texas got robbed in the Smoak/Beavan for Lee deal, after seeing what LAA gave up (Saunders + some stretches) for Haren, who's definitely a more dominant pitcher - and he has 1 year left after 2010!
WTF?
Your supercomputer analysis of Feldman is probably spot on, but why no everyday Joe mention of the outstading start he gave us against the Angels? Had we scored 4 or 5 runs and were up 5-2 in "The Inning That Doomed Scott Feldman", he would have likely gotten out of that inning, ended up with a quality start and we'd all be here raving about how the entire staff has Cliff-itis. The offense didn't help him at all, and he pitched pretty damned well.
The extension may very well been a bit overboard, but if we can continue to get 5-6 innings with only 2 runs allowed from our 5th starter, I think we are doing pretty good.
As far as the Haren trade, Saunders' stats are damn near equal to Haren's with the exception of K/9 this year. I'm not convinced this is much more than a slight upgrade for LAA. His last stint in the AL was compareable with Saunders in most categories. I like mustard on my crow, btw.
Feldman isn't that great, but who would you replace him with now (and in 2011)?
One new thing I have learned is the importance of pitching depth. Between injuries and flame outs pitching depth is very, very important.
Feldman is a back end guy. The contract isn't a crippling disasster and neither is Feldman.
Don't worry; be happy..........................
I'd like to offer a half-hearted defense of Scooter and his contract extension. I think he's subject to 2 things that are unfairly hurting opinions of his production.
1) High expectations early in the season made his pitching seem worse than it was
2) Everything else is working for the Rangers, so all we have left to complain about is Scooter and Chris Davis.
Since we got Cliff Lee and Scooter becam the #5 starter, I've found his outings to be marginally acceptable for a #5 starter. I'd still rather see Holland out there when he gets healthy, and wouldn't mind seeing Scheppers get a run out after September 1. But Scooter at #5 has been more "meh" than awful to me. And the contract extension was reasonable based on production last season. I still have a little belief in his ability to bounce back next year and be a plus guy from the back of the rotation.
I'd be rather interested in getting some classic BBTIA statistical comparison of Feldman with other #5 starters around the league.
So much of baseball success is mental, that's why I love MY who does more with his God given talent than just about anyone in baseball. What I see is Feldman can still pitch, but when the other team get a hit or two he starts pitching scared. It's like he's thinking "oh no here we go again". He forces his pitches and can't locate the ball where he wants. I really think he needs to move to the pen for a while and pitch in only low pressure situations. I'd rather see Harrison until Holland is ready, not that Harrison will do that much better but Feldman needs to get "right".
Even with this we have 4 quality starters that we can count on. If we only have to worry about every 5th start then I think we can live with it. When was the last time we (or most other teams for that matter) had 1 hole in the rotation.
Are we getting spoiled? I hope so and for a long time. The Rangers and their long suffering fans deserve it.
@Scooby
I don't think fans be complaining about CD for long. He's been hitting the ball hard lately. Last night he was the unsung star of the game. A hustling double, 2 RBI, 2 walks, punishing Mathis at the plate and maybe the best play was the stretch and pick of Elvis' highlight reel play.
sorry only 1 RBI
How did you get to be a baseball fan? Why are you a baseball fan? The Rangers are having a great season, coming off a great series against their closest rivals and you write an article about a bad contract the Rangers signed last year. I realize it impacts the team this year and beyond, but having Feldman as a 5th starter is not killing us. Learn to use your analytical skills and study something positive. It will make baseball much more enjoyable for you. See if it is possible for a stat guy to be an optimist. The truth is that the glass if more than half full right now.
At the Newberg Report Q & A yesterday, Daniels was asked what he thought a new "market inefficiency" might be that the Rangers try to exploit. Daniels answered that he believes the people in the organization might be their most underrated asset, from the front office, down to the scouts and right into the dugout.
In that answer and several others he made it pretty clear that the Rangers do consider character an asset worth investing in. That is consistent with their signing of Young and Feldman to bigger contracts than many of us were comfortable with, and his consistent defense of Washington (reiterated yesterday as well). I've always been somewhat dismissive of the "leadership" value of a guy like Michael Young, but so many other players mention Young as a leader maybe I shouldn't be. And if we are going to accept that Lee is already having a very positive influence on the other pitchers simply through the way he approaches the game, then perhaps we shouldn't discount Young's value in that regard.
Joey's job and passion is to illicit emotion and response. He's doing his part and we are doing ours.
As I've stated before, his hot points promote turnaround. This has happened all year after a Joey "chewing out." Borbon, Cruz, Young, Ian, etc.
Davis will get into a great groove, which is on the verge as we speak with more walks than Ks and a smoother, not hurried stroke. Feldman is decent as a number 5 guy and he usually doesn't get the run support that a few others seem to benefit from. Let the rest of the rotation save the bullpen and if we need them to return the favor every 4th or 5th time then so be it. You can't expect to have an entire staff that goes 7 to complete game each time and all have ERAs under 3.20.
Why do the Rangers need to audition Harden or Holland for the playoffs? At most, a team needs 4 starters in the playoffs, and barring injury we are fine there. Unless, you mean audition for long relief or somesuch.
I would rather just wait until Sept. on Holland and let him have a spot start if his rehab continues to be successful, and he pitches well at AAA.
Harden? I really have no interest at this poing unless he does something exceptional tonight for OKC.
@Joey... When is TEX decision date on Harden?
Thought once a player on the 15day DL began rehab ... the team had 30 days to activate or otherwise take some other on a player?
Joey why do you always pick on Harrison? He's not a bad starting pitcher.
No offense but I don't think there is going to be much useful analysis on Feldman until someone looks at the pitchtrax on his stuff this year vs last year. Even the first two starts of this year vs the rest of it. His stuff isn't the same to look at or to hear anyone talk about. He was brilliant in those first two starts and led or was second in innings and total pitches. He hasn't been the same since.
Learn to use your analytical skills and study something positive. It will make baseball much more enjoyable for you. See if it is possible for a stat guy to be an optimist.
Is this the first article you've ever read here? I write plenty of positive things. There's a positive story about Cliff Lee a few posts down. I've written very positive things about Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero. This has always struck me as one of the weirdest complaints about my writing.
@Joey... When is TEX decision date on Harden?
August 11th, as he made his first rehab start on July 11th. The clock is set at 30 days as you mentioned, barring any health-related setbacks that force a halt to the assignment.
Very curious if you guys have access to Feldman's velocity numbers this year versus last. Eyeballing it, I think Feldman fastball is down 2-3 MPH on average over last year. It is my hypothesis that this is causing the ineffectiveness. Which makes me wonder what happened to the MPHs?
Given that Feldman's very misleading 17 wins and 4.08 ERA led us to give such a big contract to a guy with a career 4.80 xFIP (and even worse as a starter), I'm really hoping the Rangers start winning some high-scoring games in which Tommy Hunter gives up a lot of runs and gets some no decisions, lest we make the same mistake.
Very curious if you guys have access to Feldman's velocity numbers this year versus last. Eyeballing it, I think Feldman fastball is down 2-3 MPH on average over last year.
That is correct.
I recall reading last year (but I can't remember where) that Feldman's big increase in 2009 innings over 2008 could lead to problems in 2010. There were certainly calls to use him less to save his arm towards the end of the 2009 season, but of course we were still in the race until the last few weeks and as he'd been by far the seasons most reliable pitcher, he didn't get the rest. Are we paying for it now?
"I'm really hoping the Rangers start winning some high-scoring games in which Tommy Hunter gives up a lot of runs and gets some no decisions, lest we make the same mistake."
You should be hoping the front office has learned their lesson rather than hoping pitchers don't continue to overachieve.
With regard to 2011, one of the downsides (sic) of being in a pennant race is that September call-ups teng not to get their chance to strut their stuff, and this in turn gives us (and more importantly, JD and Wash) less chance to evaluate the 2011 candidates. Fortunately, there is the rabbit that JD can be relied upon to pull out of the hat. But whether it is a big rabbit or a tiny rabbit almost certainly depends on what happens on Aug 4. And JD may well find himself too occupied with dirty rats to have much time for rabbit hunting...
Hmmm... well you don't have to strike out 10 guys a night to be an effective pitcher long-term in the big leagues. Cliff Lee is a perfect example of that - and he's roundly praised as being a true "ace" around here - he certainly isn't a strikeout pitcher. My point is I think it's a bit presumptive to lump Hunter in the same category as Feldman (overachiever, etc.) at this point. All he has done is win games and pitch really well - and agaisnt good hitting teams too. He very well could be another Feldman, but then again he might not. So let's not get too carried away, ok?
It's probably also a bit presumptive to assume that "bad" Feldman is here to stay forever, and "good" Feldman will never return. As support for my claim, I ask you to look at Cliff Lee's stats from the year 2004 and then again in 2007.
Talking of Mongolian Yak breeding, any of you folk notice that Rangers web site now includes the blog that Benji Molina had been posting while still a Giant? I hope that means he'll continue it as a Ranger. Interesting guy. Writes well. Helps us appreciate that there are real peaple inside those uniforms. And Talking of Benji Molina, I hope people appreciate the prescience of JD in aquiring him. Without that trade the hole at catcher would be a gaping chasm.
I think that the Rangers really need to look at playing Murphy at 1B.
Take the next 2 weeks and let him take ground balls, etc... and if he sucks, so be it... nothing ventured/nothing gained.
He could be replaced (in the OF) with Brandon Boggs and his .400 OBP.
This is probably a foolish thought but since Wash will sometimes use Arias at 1B, why not let Estaban German take a shot at it. What do you have to lose? The guy can hit and he's fast... and since he's a utlility guy I would think he could handle the position.
Garko is another one that would likely be an offensive improvement...
On an unrelated note - what's the book on Zach Phillips? He's on the 40 and I don't think I've read one word about him. Where does he fall in terms of prospect status?
Murphy was tried at 1B in spring training. The experiment didn't last long.
The Scott Feldman ... Mistake?
NO
I think JD is convinced he has to get someone to play 1B, at least in a platoon with Davis. This scares me, as I really hate to see them dish out more of their prospect depth for spares and/or short-term rental players. Now, if they can get a guy like Berkman or D. Lee at discount (which I doubt is possible for either of those guys), then I'm a bit happier about it. Berkman's not going to come cheap though, and I suppose one has to wonder if his great offensive numbers are history at this point.
Harden 6 innings, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10K
Don't know if that makes me happy or sad.
Comparing Feldman's year-by-year track record with Lee's only highlights the stark differences between the two pitchers ~ it doesn't provide evidence to support expectations that Feldman will match his 2009 results in the next few years. K-BB is an even better way to see the differences between the two.
"That is correct."
A word of caution on this graph: it does not comprise all of his fastballs. This graph solely represents pitches thrown by Feldman in 2010 with the 'FA' designation, which accounts for only 19% of his total pitches thrown this year ... the rest are classified under FT (sinkers) and FC (cutters). That isn't to say his velocity isn't down this year by 1-2 mph on the whole, but there's a lot of pertinent 2010 velocity data lost in that image. One of the drawbacks of Pitch f/x not being perfect from the outset, I guess.
Haren get nailed with a ball in his pitching wrist, pulled from the game in the 5th.
That should be gets.
For the record his breaking balls were missing bats but his fastballs were getting hit pretty hard. Not impressed.
t ball . . . impressive