Revisiting The Bengie Molina Trade
Joey Matschulat"There is nothing from Major League Baseball that restricts us," said Tom Hicks. "There are no restrictions, as long as we stay within our budget. It's business as usual." Right.
I thought that I had properly conveyed where I fell on yesterday's Bengie Molina-to-Texas trade already this morning, but in that analysis, I made the erroneous assumption that the player to be named later joining Chris Ray would be "a very marginal C- prospect" or somebody of that ilk. In retrospect, that was a dangerous assumption to make of a team with scant financial resources, and one of the risks you run in rendering final opinions with incomplete information in hand, because said player to be named later, according to Baseball America's Jim Callis, is Double-A Frisco right-hander Michael Main.
Said Baseball Time in Arlington's resident prospect analyst, Jason Parks, of Main back on May 5th: "Potential for electric arsenal. Present fastball sits in the 90-91 mph range with a sustainable velocity projection at the plus level (91-93 mph; max 95 mph). Pitch features above-average late life when thrown low in the zone, with sneaky velocity stemming from quick arm action.An eventual move to the bullpen would make sense, especially if the change-up doesn’t reach its developmental peak; in short bursts, Main could run his fastball into the mid-90s and use his curveball to miss bats. Tool-based grade: 56; solid-average No. 3 starter/front-line set-up man at the major league level."
That Texas elected to pull the trigger on such a deal -- a deal which prompted Callis to invoke a comparison to 2008's Carlos Santana-for-Casey Blake heist by the Indians -- tells us several things, the most significant of which is the Rangers' seeming certainty that neither Jarrod Saltalamacchia nor Taylor Teagarden are remotely on the cusp of returning to the majors; it wouldn't be far-fetched in the slightest to assert that both have fallen off the organizational road map. Despite the negligible difference between what Molina was projected to supply offensively for Texas and what the Max Ramirez/Matt Treanor tandem was projected to do (all three were projected to perform at a .295-.305 wOBA level the remainder of the season), there's clearly something that led the Rangers to believe that the status quo wouldn't have been tenable for much longer.
But with Molina not amounting to any sort of upgrade offensively, you're paying a significant premium for his veterancy and purportedly strong game-calling ability -- the true value of which I believe is very nebulous and virtually impossible to ascertain -- and leaning on that as your justification for giving up young talent. I despise that line of thought. Molina is not worth Michael Main alone. Looking at it another way, though, Main is the cost of accepting a $2 million subsidy to cover Molina's rest-of-2010 salary, which I think tells you several things: (a) you should not swing a trade if you cannot cover the remaining balance without requiring salary relief, and (b) the Rangers want to maintain whatever pittance of available money they have to pursue further trades.
Part (b) perhaps suggests that we cannot view this trade in isolation without seeing what other pre-July 31st trades get accomplished, but in the here and now, looking at this trade as it stands and this organization as presently constructed, this trade is very disappointing, and something which likely serves as ammunition for the camp which remains highly skeptical as far as whether Jon Daniels is really the general manager to put the finishing touches on a contending ballclub in the June-to-July trade window.
Reader Comments (41)
SHOCKED at the PTBNL. Totally shocked.
After knowing that Main is the PTBNL, I'm gonna have to say that this was not a good trade. I don't want to take the time to explain, since Joey already did. Lets just say I agree with the Star.
The cost does seem a bit high, but at some point as an organization you have to cash in some of your chips. I do believe the club had some doubts about Main's ability to stay healthy and progress at the level they want. Of course, if Main becomes the next Lincecum, there will be lots of yelping. Bottom line, though - if you want to truly compete, you can't operate scared. Better to be bold and (sometimes) wrong than timid and always falling short.
If it takes Main to get a backup over-the-hill catcher, then what will it take to get a Cliff Lee trade done? Scheppers AND Perez And Josh And Elvis AND Nelson Cruz?!? I seriously hope this only acts as a springborad for another trade, but if not I lose serious faith in JD and the organization as a whole. Oh, and Tom Hicks needs to go away forever or I'm shipping him to Liverpool and give them a chance to take care of business.
This, combined with the ill-timed rumor of us being interested in Jermaine Dye, make me question if we're not pursuing him as a right-handed bench bat with the excess cash.
Heaven help us.
For the love...Settle down! Seriously, you guys have it running down both legs over Main. I don't care too much for the trade but the organization is log-jammed. The "new ownership" will have to decided very quickly about what to do with the abundance of talent. Salty and Teagarden smoked Main in regards to hype and where are they now...exactly! I'm sure we can go on and on about over hyped prospects that don't amount to a hill of beans. I can think of 4-6 guys like Main in our organization. I agree 1000% with the train of thought about grading this moved before July 31st. Patience...I believe JD is up to something really big here.
Great quick work, Matches. I'm hoping Daniels pulls a rabbit out of his hat next, because if this is the only move the Rangers make before the deadline... meh.
How does this prove that MLB is restricting the Rangers?
More likely, there just isn't anyone around to fund Rangers operating losses as Hicks did to the tune of a few hundred million dollars over the years. Maybe Greenberg & Co. will, but I wouldn't hold it against them if they don't. No one's obligated to lose money on a team most people in their home market couldn't care less about and never really have.
The Rangers just don't generate much money. Decades of losing, in a football market, in a terribly located park, with league average attendance despite one of the lowest average ticket prices in the game, bottom of the barrel corporate advertising and suite sales, near the bottom TV ratings going back decades, etc.
The last sentence of the post has me quite concerned - whether JD is capable of making the acquisition trade as well as he made the Teixeira/Gagne trades. I live in fear now of what it will cost the team to acquire a SP before the trade deadline, and right now I find myself hoping that the team will not make a deal. I shouldn't feel that way, but my confidence has been shaken to its core. I just can't believe that bringing Salty back up was a lesser option than this (shaking head in disgust...).
"you're paying a significant premium for his veterancy and purportedly strong game-calling ability -- the true value of which I believe is very nebulous and virtually impossible to ascertain " spoken like a true sabremetrician, Joey. If you can't measure it to the nth degree, then it ain't worth nuthn.
OH MY GOD JOEY, GIVE ME SOME CREDIT
In last nights chat I was the one that said Michael Main was the PTBNL
Well put, Wood1378. A lot of initial overreacting to this one.
I don't like the trade at first glance either, but at the very worst it's a wasted prospect on an insurance policy, trying to make sure a position doesn't completely blow up on us in a playoff run.
I agree 100% with Wood1378 and Rangers100. I havn't looked at the DMN site yet this morning (G'day from Friday, fellas!) but I'm looking forward to having a good laugh at what will be posted there.
Michael Main is not a "wasted prospect" by any means, nor is he a sure thing. He is a prospect with a higher ceiling than a normal-running organization with a real owner should have to give up for a 36 year old catcher. That's what the dissapointment is about.
Ugh, I think JD has been outstanding for the past few years, but this trade sure looks awful.
And why does this trade have to happen now? Why did they just promote Main to AA only to trade him before he gets a single start? What is going on with the catching situation today that made this trade necessary at this point in time? Seems like Molina would've still been available for a few more weeks, and I doubt his price would've gone higher than this.
Rangers100, Wood1378, and Anthony in Australia: My concern with giving up Main rather than someone else is that we had no reason to make a decision on him for another year. He wouldn't be rule 5 eligible until after the 2011 season, and there are several players who we'll have to protect on the 40-man roster (or risk losing) after this season. I've been saying for a while that if we're making a deal that only makes a marginal improvement (like this one), we should use it to make our impending 40-man roster crunch a little easier to decipher. Scott Lucas has a pretty good list of these guys.
http://rangers.scottlucas.com/site/rule5.htm
I would think there would have been some player from the top half of his list who would have been acceptable for the Giants (maybe Boscan?). I personally feel that Main is the type of player I'd prefer to keep around unless I'm getting a significant addition.
Did you see the Buster Olney piece about GM's? Supposedly, Sabean is the hardest one to deal with especially with trades. I'm sure he didn't have any trouble picking up the phone on this deal. That being said, I believe this is a combo move and whomever we are bringing in, wants a guy like Molina. I would go nuts if I had to throw to Treanor or Max everynight.
I don't have a problem with bringing in Bengi Molina.
I don't have a problem with trading Michael Main.
I have a major problem trading Main for Molina 1 on 1, much less with Chris Ray in the mix.
This trade is Einar Diaz bad (stolen from LSB poll).
Although Main is likely no higher than #10 on the list of pitching prospects in the Rangers system right now, I am concerned about the organization's recent willingness to part with high upside pitchers like Main and Escobar.
The ramifications of this trade are interesting to consider. Molina, Treanor, and MaxRam are likely to have approximately the same value this season which leads me to believe that the team is not looking to Molina as an upgrade for Treanor or MaxRam but as a replacement. Unless the team is concerned about an injury to one of its two current catcher, one must assume that the Rangers plan to include MaxRam or perhaps Saltalamacchia in a trade. If it is the former, then Molina will simply replace MaxRam when he is traded. If the latter, then MaxRam or Treanor head to AAA where they will provide insurance against an injury to one of the team's catchers.
The most likely trade targets for the Rangers appear to be Lee, Oswalt, and Haren. Because Houston and Arizona appear set with young catchers, the logical conclusion is that the Rangers will soon acquire Cliff Lee by giving Seattle a young catcher, a young pitcher, and an interesting prospect or two.
@ Dave H Not having a go at you, but too many fans assume that the other team will simply take the players we offer, rather than demanding more than cast-offs and mid-level prospects. Yes, it would have been better to aleviate our prospect log-jam by giving someone who is rule 5 draft eligible at the end of this season, but the other guy knows who these players are and that he inherits the rule 5 problem if he accepts such a player. There sre still idiots at DMN whining that we gave up Volquez (spelling?) to get Hamilton, despite the fact that the Reds made it quite clear at the time that "No Volquez-no deal". I guess it comes down to "Do you trust JD to get the best deal possible?" My answer would be "Yes, and tht 70% of the time it would be a good deal" And 70% is winning baseball.
Who's worth more right now, Main or Beaven? Who would everyone be more disapointed to lose?
I'm pretty ambivalent on this trade. Ray looks like his arm is going to fly off any day, and the Rangers have ridden him very hard this first half. So, I'm glad to see him gone, it clears up bullpen room for Scheppers, and whoever else can be brought in. A hard throwing lefty would be nice.
As for Main, I don't like seeing the Rangers trade ANY pitching prospects because they have a long history of rolling snake eyes when it comes to the crapshoot of trading pitching prospects. Everyone they ship off does well. I wouldn't be surprised if Main was contributing for the Giants in a few years while a couple of the guys we currently put on par with Main wash out.
Bengie could end up being a marginally better contributor than the Treanor/MaxRam combo, but I think he has an even better chance of being a guy that announcers gush over for their "intangibles," but hit .240 with replacement level defense. Which is essentially what you get with Treanor/MaxRam. Yeah, they are hitting .212, but a hot week or two could get that to .240 pretty quick.
This was a great trade and get off JD's back. He has done a GREAT JOB as the GM! While Main is a good prospect, you have to give up something to get something. Molina is a winner & paired w/Treanor will give the Rangers 2 veteran catchers that will handle the pitching staff well. Right now, Main is 5-6 as far as pitching prospects. He is behind Scheppers, Beavan, Perez, Beltre, Font and maybe even Erlin & Ross. This is a strength of the organization. Last, its not JD's fault that they have to do this to supplement salary. Blame this on Hicks!!
I will withhold full judgment for another 30 days. For example, if we ship out Main but end up with Lee (with MaxR included in a trade to SEA), then I don't see anyone complaining. And just what alternatives were really available in the trade market at catcher? It's a pretty barren position. Plus, we still have Perez, Scheppers, Font, Holland, Ogando, Beltre, Feliz, Beavan, Boscan, need I go on? We're not exactly barren yet, so let's see this whole thing play out.
BTW, I'm ready today to pull the trigger on Harden, Holland, MaxR and Beavan to SEA for Lee. Would you?
None of us like losing prospects, so I have a suggestion. Have them all euthanized (humanely, of course) and then stuffed. (Gotta be some good taxidermists in DFW). They could be displayed at the ballpark in realistic poses, and we could enjoy them forever.......
@ Da Blade - The question isn't "would you?", but "would Seattle?" And what about money? It makes a BIG difference.
@david:
I like your scenario, but I do think there are other possible assumptions. Over at LSB, for example, AJM has a different take: the Rangers, fully invested in making the playoffs this season, don't feel Ramirez, Saltalamacchia, or Teagarden can be depended upon, and are worried about Treanor's ability to shoulder the workload himself. From that perspective, Molina could well be a stand-alone move, and not a harbinger of a trade for Lee.
What if the hbp on Treanor is more serious that is being let on and they think he is headed to the DL? Your need then to acquire a ML catcher becomes sort cost is no object when you are leading the division and your minor league options suck.
The option b of saving the payroll room for another deal is the only way I'll be ok with this deal. The Rangers obviously felt that Treanor and Max weren't a playoff tandem, and I can't disagree with that. But I wouldn't have targeted Molina as the guy if I couldn't afford his salary.
Wood1378, it doesn't matter if the Rangers have 50 Michael Main level pitchers. If the cost is too high you don't pay it.
With you on this one Joey. Disappointing to have to give up Ray and Main for Molina. We definitely needed an upgrade at catcher though. Its the price the Rangers pay for the mess Hicks has put this franchise in. Treanor has earned the right to be part of the mix with Molina.
What happens at the games when Hicks shows up?
We should get a couple of the Liverpool fans next to him at the next one.
TOTALLY disagree with your assessment of JD as a GM. He has already proven himself to be one of the brigthest and best young GMs in the game. With his hands tied behind his back due to the present ownership situation, he has skillfully and creatively pulled off a salary neutral trade for much needed short term veteran catching for a young staff going into its first pennant run. Do I like giving up Michael Main? No, but its the price we are now paying for the sins of ownership. If you didn't like the PTBNL on this one, wait until you see what we will have to give up for Lee. JD is just playing the cards dealt to him.
Anthony in Australia: I agree to a point, but right now I think Wilfredo Boscan would have satisfied the Giants needs as well as Main did. His ultimate ceiling is not as high as Main (AOFP of 54 OFP of 55 compared to Main's 56 according to Jason Parks); however, he's got a much cleaner injury history and is more likely to reach his ceiling than Main. The Giants currently have a very strong major league pitching staff, but those guys are closer to arbitration/free agency than the Rangers' players. I think including a guy like Boscan would have been better for both organizations in this trade.
I'm also fairly convinced that Brian Sabean has much higher odds of screwing something up than John Daniels at this point. According to Buster Olney's recent poll, most of the other GMs would agree with me. The other GMs in the league were highly critical of Sabean, and think that JD is one of the more careful GMs in all of baseball. There's always a very good chance that JD knows something that we don't.
Basically Anthony, I agree with you for the most part, but I think there were other options that may have been better for both teams. However, like you, I'll put my trust in JD.
@ t ball: Adam Morris said it best at LSB tonight:
http://www.lonestarball.com/2010/7/1/1548245/something-to-keep-in-mind-on-the
Losing Main: meh
They real cost of the trade is Molina + cash for Ray, Main plus Main's signing bonus and 3 year or so of development. I also don't think JD is solely behind this move. Remember, "It's time" and I don't think Nolan is the patient type.
I to worry that "It's Time" motivated this horrible trade.
Main is amiddle of the order starting pitcher with a great future with years of club control ahead of him.
Bengie is a fat, old washed up catcher rapidly going downhill.
Shades of the Eaton trade come to mind.
I'm not so much dissapointed that Main was traded... as I am who they traded FOR and the reasons they pulled the trigger.
Molina, in his day, was a good catcher with a good bat. Now, he's a 300lb pig that wouldn't beat my 72 yr old father-in-law in the 40 (I'm serious about that...). I hate to be a name caller but that description fits the bill.
My only assumption here is that Treanor and Molina will split the work load and MaxRam will be on the outside looking in.
This is EXACTLY the type of trade that has worried me for months.
With that said, Molina does add value both at the plate and behind it. He's a vet that can likely be counted on down the stretch. Treanor may be exposed for who he is, a journeyman (who I love mind you), and Maxram, well... he is not a great defensive catcher... at all... and he's streaky at the plate.
I hope this works out but I REALLY hope JD avoids anymore of these type deals. I don't like it... not 1 bit.
Totally disgusted by all of the circumstances surrounding the "sale" of this team and what it takes to acquire a marginal catcher like Molina. I know the majority of prospects never see the light of day in the majors, but to be held ransom by the sale process or lack there of is beyond frustrating. The timing could not be worse. The Rangers are finally in a position to be ultra competetive, but now they have shackles around their legs when it comes to competing in the trade market. Thanks Mr. Hicks. Please don't show your face at the ballpark again this year. JD please don't trade Scheppers or Perez! Or should I say Scheppers and Perez!
I am disappointed in this trade because we gave up solid current value and very solid future value in Main for the first catcher we saw in Bengie Molina who doesn't have much in the way of current value except that he doesn't suck like Salty and Teagarden and, lately, Max. Molina has nothing in the way of future value. The real shame is that we had to substitute Michael Main for cash because we are a panhandling, broke franchise.
What I am even more disappointed in is that the Ballpark is the kind of environment where Tom Hicks, the main solely responsible for this and many of our other recent hamstrung personnel moves, can have enough of a guarantee of apathy and personal safety to go watch a Rangers game. He should be booed at the very least, and I'd prefer he have trash thrown at him in the aisles. He should not feel secure in attending games. It's ridiculous that he shows up to games and doesn't get jeered for scuttling this franchise.
Between selling Main into Fog City slavery to get Molina and the guys' inability to plate runs last night with men on base, I'm crabby as all get out today.
This trade will eventually make the Baines for Alvarez, Sosa and Fletcher transaction look good.
Bengie Molina was on the verge of getting released--that's how bad he's been playing. His defense has collapsed, and the bat is slow, slow, slow. In key moments, a fog comes over Molina, and he doesn't seem to even try to block balls in the dirt. And you'll discover that Molina on the basepaths brings a whole new variable into baseball. You guys got fleeced. Sabean is a horrible GM, and we usually get fleeced (I am a Giants fan). Sabean finally pulled off a great trade! Amazing!