Wednesday Morning Rangers Notes
One of the unfortunate by-products of coming down off a draft high -- and not having anything particularly compelling to say, for once, nor having the time to properly convey it -- is that sometimes you have to roll with the skeleton of things that you want to write about and punt the analysis for a few hours. I'm about to activate that plan here:
● Josh Hamilton, the craftsman of a 1-for-3 performance in the Rangers' runaway 7-1 victory over the Mariners on Tuesday night, is now hitting a robust .300/.349/.534 (.380 wOBA), rendering him the seventh-most offensively valuable outfielder in the American League (FanGraphs.com)
[Without most people even realizing it, Hamilton has climbed within five percentage points of his 2008 wOBA (.385), with a somewhat less pristine walk-to-strikeout ratio this time around but, shockingly, even better power numbers -- sure, he's slightly behind the pace he needs in order to equal his 32-homer bounty in 2008, but he also has a more-than-legitimate shot at amassing 50 doubles, with a very high proportion of those being fly balls to left field. Anomalous? Perhaps, but a majority of his 35 doubles two years ago were also driven to left field. It would seem he's mastered finding the gaps and/or the wall when going the opposite way, although I also wouldn't discount the possibility that inefficient defensive positioning has helped inflate that total.
What's my point? I don't know, really. I do find it interesting that Hamilton doesn't generate the same kind of hype he did two years ago, despite the similarly dominant performance. Call it the "new-toy effect," if you will. The fascination and mystique surrounding his narrative and five-tool skill set have died down the more that we've been exposed to him, which is exactly what you would expect with the passage of time, but if Hamilton was over-appreciated by the Rangers' fan base at some point, it almost feels as though the pendulum has swung the other way completely. As Will Carroll wrote on Monday morning, Hamilton will "likely never play much more than 100 games in a season," and isn't somebody Texas should be looking to extend long term, but don't ever take him for granted. He's pretty good.]
● According to Ultimate Zone Rating, Michael Young grades out as the third-worst-fielding third baseman (5.8 runs below average) to date this season, whereas Elvis Andrus grades out as the fifth-best-fielding shortstop, at 2.2 runs above average (FanGraphs.com)
[As far as I can discern, there is not a more diametrically opposite shortstop-third base defensive tandem in baseball than Andrus-Young, and as you might expect, the effects of this lopsided pairing are beginning to manifest in their defensive numbers. According to the detailed plus/minus statistics over at Bill James Online, Andrus is a superb nine plays above average on balls hit to his right (towards which he presumably shades a little bit as a means of compensating for Young's abysmal range), but two plays below average on balls hit to his left.
What can the Rangers possibly do about this? Like a lot of things about their present active roster, nothing. It is what it is. You optimally position Andrus and Young so that you maximize the number of balls one or the other -- or both -- is able to reach, and you accept the results, for better or for worse. And here's a question for the contingent who thinks of Young as a fielder who's probably going to be 10-15 runs below average going forward, somebody who probably needs to be moved to DH in 2011-12: If you tell him he's no longer capable of playing in the field, how does he react? Does he dig in his heels? Does he demand another trade? Or does he acquiesce? I don't know what the answer is, but if you're going to contemplate pushing him out of the infield, it's a question worth asking.]
● In his assessment of the second-day draft winners and losers, ESPN.com's Jason Churchill cited the Rangers' selection of right-handers Cody Buckel (second round) and Justin Grimm (fifth round) as several of the day's "standout picks" (ESPN.com
[ ... Which is why you have to take a holistic view of a given team's draft class and not render final evaluations based on incomplete data. Both Buckel (No. 51) and Grimm (No. 66) earned placement within Keith Law's top 100 draft prospects list, although the extent to which either is signable isn't clear. Grimm (6' 4", 193 lb.) ostensibly has the higher ceiling, with a 92-95 mph fastball and great arm speed; however, poor mechanics -- including a "rushed delivery" and "stiff landing" -- and the complete and utter lack of a viable third pitch beyond his mediocre curveball make him more of a project for the Rangers' minor league pitching instructors than a ready-to-go young hurler.
Buckel (6' 0", 170 lb.) reportedly sits around 90-92 mph, which isn't anything special considering the pitch's fringe-average command/movement, but he does feature a very good mid-70s curveball -- a pitch with "tight rotation and some depth," per Law -- and solid mechanics. Durability concerns are expected to restrict his current ceiling to that of a back-of-the-rotation starter or set-up man, but high school pitchers with the potential for up to four average-to-plus pitches aren't exactly ubquitous, and if there's one constant in prospect development, it's that prospects don't always do what you expect them to do.]
Quick Hits: Both of the Rangers' first-round picks (outfielder Jake Skole and catcher Kellin Deglan) have signed and will report to the rookie-league Arizona Rangers; Skole signed for a reported $1.557 million, equivalent to the recommended slot bonus for the 15th-overall pick, and Deglan signed for $1 million ... Before "The Problem With Michael Young" was published on the morning of May 6th, Young was hitting .256/.294/.342. Since then? .369/.428/.566. Just saying ... Derek Holland (left rotator cuff inflammation) cut short a scheduled 30-pitch bullpen session after experiencing some pain; this likely doesn't bode well for his chances of returning before June 30th.
20 Comments | in Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (20)
You have to wonder if this is not the time to consider dealing Young for some pitching and installing Chris Davis at 3rd.
A) Just because Young is currently the worst at third doesn't mean there can't be a new worst, which Davis would be. At least Michael hits. You don't get the same guarantee with Davis.
B) What kind of usable pitching do you think Michael Young and his current contract are going to return?
Agree with hefe. Davis is definitely not the answer over at third. The Rangers just have to roll with Young and hope at least his throwing issues are behind him. His subpar range will simply have to be something the Rangers deal with.
I feel Young's poor fielding ranking has much more to do with his erratic throws early this season than to his glove, or range. As the season progresses, his throwing should stabilize, and he will be more than an adequete defensive 3B.
Remember, he is still a very fine hitter, and Ranger fans shouldn't take hitting for granted any more. There have been more than a couple of weak spots in the lineup the last few seasons.
I also wonder what trading Young would say to future free agents. Young has moved positions twice, deferred money on his contract willingly and come to play every day. He has been the consumate (sp?) professional and then we trade him saying we're gonna do what's best for the team? That would take some serious public relations magic and I think that it would give a terrible message to anyone thinking about wanting to come to Texas. As a fan I'm all for trading Young if it makes the team better but I don't think it would happen cause of all the "intangibles" that would go into that decision.
You can't trade MY. It's that simple. We would ask a lot in return for him and he has a big contract himself, which would make other teams leave the table. As long as he is hitting, he stays right where he is.
in any case or future time MY would it be a option to send MY to 1st acquire somehow a better 3b. Smoak could DH in case Guerrero's bat go off.
Snowcourt: Traditionally MY's arm has been more than adequate, and he's generally had soft hands. His problem has been and always will be his range. He has a hard time getting to any ball hit five feet to either side of him. While his glove and arm have been off from their usual steadiness, he still has the worst range in the league. He might go from third worst to 5-6th worst. That's still not good for a team that trying to build around strong defense. All that said, he will go nowhere until he stops hitting or Olt/Mendoca figures it out.
a) The Face is going nowhere due to limited range, huge contract, and well, he is the Face.
b) Davis does not project well at 3B.
The only answer, as seen last night, is for Andrus to cover both SS & 3B!
The answer of course next year is move Young to DH - that's why I say the Rangers should trade Guerrero at the deadline and get a BIG return for him, since he's surely not going to be around next year.
If the Rangers fool around and don't get a 3rd basemen between now and next season... well I don't want to even go there.
Why don't we just trade for David Wright?
It was a weird draft (through 30 rounds) for the Rangers;
6 of the first 7 picks are high schoolers, followed by 13 of the next 14 being college players.
17 college players
13 high schoolers
17 pitchers - (12 of which are RHP)
13 position players
9 of the last 11 picks were pitchers - (5 of which were high schoolers)
Of the 12 RHP, 5 are listed as 6'4 or taller (several were 6'3)
There isn't 1 LHP over 6'3... and the Rangers didn't select a LHP until pick #226
I must say that after watching video on the Ranger's picks (the one's that had video, obviously) I'm not very impressed. I'm particularly not impressed with their 1st pick.
Maybe one of the BBTiA brains would review the video clip (from MLB.com) of Skole and break down his swing. It looks to me (as we all know by now, I rarely know what I'm talking about) that he flies open too soon and hits off his front foot (vs load balancing and driving the ball).
He looks like a future slap hitter... and it seems like we have plenty of those types already (Borbon, Andriu
I do like Deglan, Grimm, and Nicholas... but Buckel is a shrimp, he looks like he's 12.
And hey, what's with all the video clips showing the pitcher throwing without a batter in the box, but the ump is still calling balls/strikes?
Sorry, I meant to include the link to the video of the ump calling balls/strikes with no batter in the box:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?topic_id=10018074&content_id=8657107
Well, at least we're signing guys on this go-around... that's nice to hear.
Pabloesque "It was a weird draft (through 30 rounds) for the Rangers"
Wasn't weird if you look at it from a bankruptcy viewpoint. From that perspective it's just sad.
BTW, have I mentioned today how much I HATE TOM HICKS?
@Jon - that's a good point. It is sad. This front office has worked their tails off to make this team compettive for years to come (hopefully).
I don't know how a General Manager's contract is written, etc... but what's stopping JD from dumping the Rangers and moving to a team that has stable ownership? Seriously, I feel bad for the guy. If he somehow became available, he would have many suitors. I would be super pissed if we lost him because of the suck ass ownership situation.
I liked the Deglan pick, and we really just have to wait and see on Skole and Jackson. The big thing here is player development. Remember that Kinsler was a 17th round pick. Skole has some power that probably won't translate immediately to wood bats/stiffer competition, but they're getting started early and has good player development people to work on the holes in his swing. Deglan's been hitting with wood bats since he was 15 and I already like what I've seen. Just remember that it doesn't matter what they are right now; It's how they turn out in the long run that matters.
The answer of course next year is move Young to DH - that's why I say the Rangers should trade Guerrero at the deadline and get a BIG return for him, since he's surely not going to be around next year.
You can only trade Vlad if you're something like 7-8 games out of first place in late July and it's evident that you're completely outmatched by 1-2 other teams in your division. Trading Vlad when you're still within striking distance -- or, worse, leading the division -- would crush clubhouse morale. I think the impact of team chemistry is vastly, VASTLY overstated at times, but I cannot imagine the level of dejection in that room if they dealt Vlad while they were still in post-season contention. This isn't a video game.
I feel Young's poor fielding ranking has much more to do with his erratic throws early this season than to his glove, or range. As the season progresses, his throwing should stabilize, and he will be more than an adequete defensive 3B.
Michael Young, defensive range runs, 2010: -3.8 runs
Michael Young, defensive error runs, 2010: -1.5 runs
This jibes with what I've found previously, that range -- at least in the UZR formula -- accounts for 80 percent of a player's defensive value and only about 20 percent is tied up in error prevention/allowance. Of course, there's also double play runs for SS/2B guys and outfield arm runs, but those aren't applicable here.
I think the Hamilton hype from 2008 came from his first half dominance as much as the shiny new toy effect. He wasn't as good in the second half, but everyone was still riding the wave from pre-ASB
Joey--could you do a statistical analysis of Young offense/defense combination compared to other 3Bs in the league, sometime?
Other concerns I have are Kinsler's offensive game (it has varied so much the past three seasons, I am still not sure what he is offensively), catching, & 1B offense. I am also unsure of the top of the Ranger's rotation--what can we expect from Harden (hopefully a trade for something strong, though he might not bring back much, currently) and from Feldman, the supposed 2nd arm in the rotation.