Texas Rangers Day One MLB Draft Recap: The Year Of Signability
Kellin DeglanIn the days leading up to this year's Rule 4 draft, first-year Rangers scouting director Kip Fagg made it abundantly clear that it was Texas's intent to peg high-upside players while, of course, abiding by the "best player available" dictum. It was also intimated that the Rangers would have some wiggle room to manuever above and beyond mere slot money. I suspect both assumptions have conspired to set a lot of people's heads spinning around in the last 12 hours after what some would consider to be a disappointing beginning to this year's draft class, and I can't assure you that I can do anything about that. But I can try.
What follows is an in-depth look at each of the four amateur players the Rangers procured with their first four picks yesterday, complete with draft position, field position, date of birth, physical information, school (where applicable), estimated slot money (via Lookout Landing, which I would advise you to take with a grain of salt) and the best all-time picks at that respective draft position, as well as embedded MLB.com scouting video for your Rangers prospect edification. Take a deep breath, and try to enjoy:
No. 15: OF Jake Skole | DoB: 01/17/92 | 6' 1", 200 lb.
School: Blessed Trinity High School (Georgia) | Estimated Slot: $1,560,000
Best No. 15 Picks: Richie Hebner (1966), Jim Rice (1971), Chase Utley (2000)
At no point in the last 3-4 years had the Rangers' scouting department approved the selection of a player completely out of left field with its first-overall pick; Blake Beavan was slot-appropriate for his level of talent back in 2007, whereas Justin Smoak and Matt Purke were both high-level prospects that managed to slip just far enough for Texas to obtain their draft rights. Jake Skole doesn't conform with that recently established precedent (particularly since he was not ranked among Baseball America's top 200 draft prospects going into Monday), and thus he naturally looks like a huge overdraft at first glance.
But to make that assumption omits other important variables, including the facts that (a) the Rangers had no choice but to identify and select a player whom they were absolutely certain would sign, lest the draft pick end up being relinquished for good, and (b) prospect rankings are fallible, especially draft prospect rankings, where talented players can slip through the observational cracks and end up being penalized for that in the subjective mainstream rankings. Such would appear to be the case with Skole to some degree, a player who epitomizes the classic high-tools, high-risk, high-reward high school draft prospect.
Skole counteracted the draft stock-depressing effects of his questionable signability and injury concerns -- he had a reasonably strong commitment to play both football and baseball at Georgia Tech, and missed nearly his entire senior baseball season with a right ankle injury -- with impressive offensive potential, boasting a powerful and compact swing which has evidently evoked some comparisons to Johnny Damon and Grady Sizemore. Mechanically speaking, he would seem to be somewhat lacking in lower-body leverage (as illustrated in the below video), something which Texas will presumably address once his professional career gets underway and all of the accompanying instructional benefits are made available to him. As you might expect from a high school player, his pitch recognition is not exactly polished.
There's some sharp divergence in opinion on his defensive fate (the Rangers seem to envision Skole as a dynamic center field prospect, whereas Baseball America describes him as a "fringe-average runner who profiles as a corner outfielder"), as well as on his position on the draft value continuum; grousing erupted en masse once the Skole pick went down yesterday, but other respected draft evaluators such as Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus lavished praise upon the pick, deeming the selection "brilliant" because of Skole's great tools and relative signability. The latter has already manifested, as Skole is reportedly close to a deal with Texas, and there's nothing better for a talented, albeit raw commodity than being exposed to top-notch professional instruction as soon as possible.
VIDEO
No. 22: C Kellin Deglan | DoB: 05/03/92 | 6' 2", 195 lb.
School: Langley High School (British Columbia) | Estimated Slot: $1,290,000
Best No. 22 Picks: Chet Lemon (1972), Rafael Palmeiro (1985), Craig Biggio (1987)
If Baseball America's Jim Callis is to be credited for nailing the Skole pick on the head in his final Monday morning mock draft, then ESPN.com's Keith Law deserves similar consideration, if not more -- he had Deglan ending up in the Rangers' clutches as far back as May 25th, which is remarkable considering how much prospect movement transpired in the various mock drafts over the last several weeks (although Law later altered that prediction, but the overriding point stands). What is less clear, at least beyond his inherently fuzzy development curve by virtue of being a high school catcher, is how Deglan will be perceived by the draft-educated portion of the fan base ... if that matters at all.
Regarded as Canada's top prep player this year, Deglan combines legitimate defensive chops and what Law describes as 60-grade power potential -- on the 20-to-80 scouting scale -- into a potent package that has left first-hand observers impressed; Baseball Time in Arlington's Jason Parks has seen Deglan play in person, and remarked last night that he "definitely" wields first-round talent. Swinging from the left side of the plate, Deglan reportedly possesses strong hands/wrists and good balance, but is also thought to be at risk of a "long" swing that could compromise his effectiveness against inside pitches; however, it's far too soon to pass judgment one way or the other.
Defensively, Deglan has all the appearances of being a near-immediate asset: his arm strength is above-average, his pop time (home plate-to-second base) has been clocked at an "encouraging" 1.85 seconds by Jason Parks, and his receiving skills/make-up are regarded as pluses. Texas has already agreed upon a below-slot $1 million signing bonus with Deglan, which will assuredly raise eyebrows, since this was the Rangers' first protected pick of the draft and the place where many would have liked to have seen Texas get aggressive. Did the Rangers screw up? Are they overvaluing make-up? Or are they simply pulling off a great bang-for-the-buck deal? I'm not qualified to answer those questions; I'm simply here to present both sides of the issue.
VIDEO
No. 45: RHP Luke Jackson | DoB: 08/24/91 | 6' 2", 180 lb.
School: Calvary Christian Academy (Florida) | Estimated Slot: $790,000
Best No. 45 Picks: Jerry Bell (1969), John Dopson (1982), Gerald Laird (1998)
This is a fascinating pick -- albeit a not-unexpected pick, especially since Keith Law had previously suggested the Rangers might be in on the Florida prep right-hander as early as the 15th- or 22nd-overall picks -- in that it really seems to drive home the prospect parity in this draft class outside of the top four picks or so. Case in point: Baseball America dispensed rave reviews for his raw stuff and athleticism, and went so far to state that Jackson, at his best, was "not far" from his much higher-ranked intrastate peers, Karsten Whitson and A.J. Cole -- both of whom were ranked among the top 16 prospects in the draft by the publication.
Described as another "late-helium" pick in the vein of Jake Skole, Jackson brandishes a 91-94 mph fastball that has been clocked as high at 96 mph -- a pitch which has some remaining projection velocity-wise -- and a "big" 12-to-6 curveball with abundant potential. His clean, repeatable delivery earns him points, but inconsistent command/control -- both grade out as 40 at the present and 50 in the future -- stemming in part from his late arrival on the high school baseball scene drove down his perceived value, as did some ambiguity around his signability; however, despite his commitment to pitch for the University of Miami, Jackson has reportedly expressed interest in playing pro ball, which would seem to suggest that a slightly above-slot enticement could sway him towards the Rangers' camp.
VIDEO
No. 49: Mike Olt | DoB: 08/27/88 | 6' 2", 215 lb.
School: University of Connecticut | Estimated Slot: $740,000
Best No. 49 Picks: Carney Lansford (1975), Jeff Suppan (1993), Carlos Beltran (1995)
From Baseball America: "Olt moved to third base as a sophomore, and his soft hands, smooth actions and strong arm will make him at least a solid-average defender there, and some scouts believe he has Gold Glove potential. [...] The 6-foot-2, 210-pound Olt has good leverage in his swing and above-average raw power, but his swing has holes and scouts still question his pitch recognition. His work ethic garners rave reviews, giving reason to hope he can become an average major league hitter. He's also a good athlete with fringe-average speed. Olt's stock was on the rise down the stretch, and he could be drafted as high as the second round."
[This report will be replaced by a more substantive report shortly.]
VIDEO
[Editor's note: Yesterday's live draft chat has now been moved here.]
17 Comments | in Analysis, MLB Draft, Prospects, The Season
Reader Comments (17)
Love the Skole pick, the ankle was a gift for the Rangers, without the lost time A. he may not have gotten to 15 and, B. he likely would have been more expensive.
I personally liked Deglin as high as 15, so I obviously like him at 22, though to be completely forthcoming I did have O'Conner higher because of multiple options he brings.
I would have gone Tago ahead of Jackson, but reading this morning it looks like makeup was a huge factor here, and I can't argue with that.
Olt is better than Mendonca right now in my opinion. Still, I thought he might be there in 2nd round. But it's a good pick.
Overall a good draft. Not Angels good, but top 6 in my opinion.
Outfielder, Catcher, Pitcher, and Infielder.
Although I ave always gone since the early Cowboy days with the "best player available" approach, I must say that I like the balance. Skole is a very interesting pick. However, over time I suspect that we all wish that the Rangers had been able to sign Purke.
BTW, have I mentioned today how much I STILL AND ALWAYS WILL HATE Hicks?
4 picks in the Top 50.
0 draftees in BA's list of the Top 50 draft prospects.
0 players who will appear in the Rangers' mid-season Top 25.
This was an opportunity to help re-load a system that is looking a bit thin in terms of legitimate Top 100 prospects. Assuming the team continues to emphasize signability with its remaining picks, they will have back-to-back drafts only Scheppers profiles as elite)
@david - I agree with you for the most part but as you know these draft picks, every single one of them, from Harper on, are boom or bust. And while I'd hoped JD and co. would be able to land a Sheppers type, they had to operate within their means. So while this doesn't help your opinion (or mine) of the Ranger's picks, I can see why they did what they did.
I will say that I'm a little leary of taking 3 out of 4 position players. I know the farm is thin on these, but we can never have too much pitching. With that said, I've read that this was just an average draft for pitching.
Hopefully we will look back in 5 years and heap praise the "brilliant one" (JD).
I work with a guy that has a nephew expected to go somewhere in the 5th to 10th round... soes anyone know of a draft tracker that's going to be constantly updated?
Looking at the videos, Skole has got an arm, swing needs work but looks like he has serious doubles potential. I like the look of Jackson, the ball zips out of his hand a bit deceptively. Olt looks smooth in the field, but I still don't understand this pick. I'm tired of guys with big holes in their swing.
david i totally agree. If I'm not mistaken there was 1 pick that was in the top 200 with 4 picks in the top 49. !ets hope that one will crack the top 25 next year & maybee they can be thrown in a trade to help upgrade the big leauge club. I know it takes a year before they are eligiable to be traded, but it will take that long before there is a new ownership group in place. This is the year & draft of The Hicks. Tom Hicks has totally screwed this organization in the draft two years in a row.
To all the people that thought the current financial situation would not have an effect on day to day operations, this draft should show that line of thinking is completely wrong. This draft is nothing like drafts in past years. For the past several years, this club has drafted players that were more talented than the slot the Rangers picked them, but slid for certain reasons (money, injury). This draft seems to have taken a different approach. I don't know if these players will develop or not, but this draft is proof that the financial situation has an effect on day to day operations.
@ tball
Good observations. This is a swing for the fence pick, that evidently came with a degree of certainty on signability. Up the middle player, plus tools, played in the best amateur program in the country, East Cobb is the Gold standard in youth baseball right now. Lot to like, and again, he's not an option for this club without the ankle injury.
@tball, I'm not down on Jackson at all but I would have gone Tago before Jackson. What's your take?
@david
To your post I say, SO WHAT! This organization has built themselves a right to benefit of the doubt as to their scouting. Further, A.J. Preller is now involved in the talent and draft evaluation on the domestic side, I'd say he has a pretty good track record. By the premise of your post, teams could just eliminate scouting departments altogether and simply take the player with the highest BA numerical value on the board. Frankly I'm disappointed in that post as I expect real analysis and thought from BBTiA as opposed to throwing out some superficial pablum that appeals to those looking for reasons to react.
@A.Stephens - in the words of the great George Castanza; "Easy big fella..."
Lot of cynicism going on LSB.
Would Texas have picked differently if they had more money? This is directed at Parks, who stayed reasonable in the BBTiA live chat, supportive even.
I'm not sure what I think about this years draft yet. I do like that we aren't only drafting pitchers, or focusing on one position, but from what I am seeing, there were better players available when we picked each time. I know the front office said we had a budget to operate within, but I still think they had to pass up players that had higher upside. It is a little frustrating that the transfer of power from Hicks to Greenberg isn't completed yet. I believe if it had been, we would have seen a different draft class from us.
Money issues are legit, and I'm sure those financial restraints played a role with the early selections. But drafting players based on where BA ranks them in order to please the average fan doesnt make any sense. The Rangers have a stacked system, so grabbing projectable HS players, despite their lack of actualized tools or polish or general name recognition, can be a very smart move down the line. It doesnt matter if the Rangers drafted a player that will immediately jump onto a top 25 list. Why do you need that? Those lists are nothing more than snapshots of the moment, and ultimately an arbitrary means of evaluation. The name of the game is development. Let's see how these players develop before going overboard with the despair.
I know you can't really determine how a draft was until the players make it to the big leagues or don't. Then you can go back and grade the draft. I didn't mean to make it seem like I did not like the draft. I like the mix of players, position wise and age wise. It will help infuse the system with some talent that will develop throughout the minors.
The name of the game is development.
So we can say that the team erred on the side of cheapness, and that strategy shifted them to raw tools.
Some of the reaction may be due to stories indicating that the Rangers had budget to go a couple million over slot for some players. If money saved in the draft can lead to some wiggle room for the Rangers to take on salary at the deadline, then I think the draft might look a little better to some.
Thank you Dr. Parks.
As you are a tenured Professor at BBTiA, and in my power as The "Prevailing Legal Authority" of my moms basement, I hereby bestow upon you the following "Honorary Doctorate of Comprehensive and Delicious Prospect Analysis", from the University of NCR.
Any chance we can start tonight game chat at 6 so we can talk about something exciting on TV rather than wait until 7 and talk about something that is not?