Rich Harden: The End? (Part IV)
Rich Harden fires a presumably ill-fated pitch against Tampa Bay on Sunday, June 6th.If you had told me three months ago that I would come to write no fewer than four Rich Harden-specific pieces by the season's one-third point, I would have assumed one of two things: (a) that he had embarked upon an injury-plagued odyssey entailing conflicting diagnoses, rehab stints and the like, or (b) that he had been so utterly dominating that his work merited as many as four separate pieces. But this? Never. Or at least not right away. Pitchers are inherently inconsistent, but Harden is taking that maxim far too literally, and you could make a case that it's killing his supporting cast -- literally.
Before taking this morning's Rich Harden diatribe down the road that it needs to go, it's worth mentioning that this is, in fact, a fortuitous time for the Rangers in that they fared well during their six-game stretch against Chicago and major league-best Tampa Bay, going 4-2 and managing to cling to a half-game divisional lead. More uplifting, however is the Rangers' upcoming schedule through the All-Star break, which comprises 32 games -- including 12 interleague tilts -- against 10 teams with a composite third-order winning percentage of .401, equivalent to a 65-win pace over the span of a full season. A beautiful opportunity to build a significant cushion between first and second place.
Adherents of the "glass half empty" philosophy will contrarily argue that this opportunity cannot be wasted, and if it does go wasted, it's not a stretch to assume that Harden will have been a prime contributing factor. His velocity is back on the right track (recently averaging 91-92 mph while maxing out at 95-96 mph), but to boil it all down to the bluntest possible terms, his command still sucks, and it's snowballing out of control. Three quick points that I cannot help but throw down, all of which somehow pertain to yesterday afternoon's disappointing effort (5.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, 2 HR, 111 pitches):
● Each of the local beats made reference to Rich Harden's high foul ball count yesterday, with several taking it a step further and implying -- if not outright stating -- that his high foul ball count this year reflects some degradation in his stuff. Not buying the connection. Why? Simple: Because his current foul-ball rate (20.9 percent) is essentially right in line with his recent career norms, and you'll notice that he had no issues amassing 13-16 percent swinging strike rates in those seasons, which obviously hasn't been the case this season (7.8 percent swinging strike rate). The notion that he's lost a little stuff may be right on the money, but the supporting evidence predicated on foul ball tallies isn't.
● Said Harden in the post-game aftermath: "I'm feeling good. I'm getting stronger, throwing more strikes, getting ahead of hitters. I'll turn this around."An odd sentiment, particularly the "getting ahead of hitters" portion: Harden fired first-pitch strikes only 48 percent of the time yesterday (ML average: 58 percent) and recorded two of the first three pitches for strikes only 53 percent of the time (ML average: 60 percent), statistics which would seem to run counter to what Harden is conveying. And while the whole "throwing more strikes" thing is good and all, it didn't exactly preclude yesterday's high walk-to-inning ratio, and didn't preclude big problems in other starts either.
● David Brown wrote at length about the virtues of ground ball-inducing tendencies last August, showing that pitchers can generally trim 20-25 points from their ERA for every 25-point increase in their ground-to-fly ball ratio. Sounds great, doesn't it? Sure. But assuming that the reverse also holds true, Harden is trending in a disturbing direction: his ground-to-fly ball ratio was a disturbing 2-to-10 yesterday, bringing his seasonal ratio to just 0.59 -- by far the worst mark of his major league career, as well as the worst mark in the majors right now. We knew that Harden was a fly ball-inclined pitcher coming into this season, but this is just ridiculous, and helping kill both him and his team.
Where does Texas venture from here? Nowhere, yet. The best-case scenario for Derek Holland likely entails another 2-3 weeks on the shelf, after which the Rangers may be forced to make a serious determination on his future (barring further starting pitching attrition), and unless you're one of the outlying few who condones giving a legitimate shot to Michael Kirkman or Guillermo Moscoso, the Rangers don't wield any other appealing options. They are, in effect, stuck with Harden much the same way that they are stuck with Michael Young at third base.
And while I still don't consider Harden to be a true-talent 5.50 FIP pitcher or anything else quite so grotesquely bad, it's probably about time that we acknowledge and reconcile ourselves with the reality that Rich Harden, plagued as he is by mechanical inconsistencies, is what he is right now. He might improve upon this brutal five-inning, 100-pitch precedent that he has set, but he's probably not going to. He's certainly not giving us any reason to believe that he's going to. Harden thought he positively identified the culprit (inconsistent arm slot), but even if that was it, he isn't succeeding in fixing it, and is now going back to the drawing board to watch more video and look for more flaws.
Nobody knows anything. Harden doesn't know anything. The Rangers don't appear to know anything. And when it comes to the pitching game, that's just about as scary as it gets.
29 Comments | in Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (29)
I thought we won 2/3 from both Chicago and Tampa?
THAT's the thing you kill me on? Actually, good call. For some reason I forgot Texas won two in Chicago.
This gives me an opportunity to float one more thing out there: I don't exactly know what role Mike Maddux is playing in the Rich Harden debacle, by which I mean I don't know to what extent he's working to help Harden get out of this funk, but if he's significantly contributing, none of the local beats are hitting on it at all, and Harden still seems to be just as perplexed as ever. Is Maddux just as confused as everyone else? Should he have already diagnosed and corrected what's wrong with Harden?
I don't know whether Maddux is regarded as too sacred around these parts to even dare to question any aspect of his coaching, or whether these are even the right questions to be asking, but it's something I wanted to throw out there, and if people end up ripping me for it (or, worse, tell me that I can't question anything the team does because I don't work in baseball ops.), then that's how it goes.
I am with you on Maddux, HE is supposed to know... and fix., but that goes for ALL our coaches, I think we are weak in that area, or at least they have no real control or backup??? something is out of whack.. Leadership??
I dont know..
the more I think about it, it reminds me of a scripture, "they were all doing what was right in their own eyes"
hummmm
when Harden is so obviously out to lunch as to say the things he did after that travesty yesterday, is it any wonder that they don't know what to do with him. He is not living in reality. There couldn't be any greater contrast than seeing him right after Tommy Hunter. Harden is deluding himself to say he is getting better when he makes his teammates stand out in that heat for four hours. Somebody on that team needs to have a man-to-man with him. Mike Lowell might be the only guy to do that and he's in Boston.
The Rangers still owe harden $5M plus a $1M buyout. He is not going to be released. The best hope is that he agrees to go on the DL so that he can work on whaatever he needs to work on.
On my commute to work this morning, I thought of how to respond to this article and examine Rich Harden less from a mechanics standpoint (which I am certainly not an expert on) and look at it from a pure "this makes sense" perspective.
First, my shocking opinion: there is nothing wrong with Rich Harden or his mechanics. There, I said it. Now, let me defend myself before you all go haywire.
Let's look at Rich Harden circa 2005. 2005 was one of Rich Harden's better years, starting an abbreviated 19 games due to injury but pitching effectively, throwing 8.51 K/9, walking a mediocre 3.02 per 9, and simply posting numbers that indicate that the young 23/24 year-old fireballer was going to become a stud.
Why was he so good in 2005? Well, couple a 97-98 mph fastball with anything and you're bound to get a few hitters out. But no, his major assets (in addition to a plus-plus fastball) were a devastating change-up (that some could argue was second to only Johan Santana's) and, what may go down as "the forgotten pitch," the killer slider that was comparable to Brad Lidge's.
Three not just above average pitches, but real "Ace-caliber" pitches. Fangraphs state that in 2005, he threw his slider anywhere from 10-20% of the time back in those days (Pitch FX, while a great tool, is not an exact science, especially five years ago). Harden was dominating. You sit on his fastball and you see the change-up. You sit on the change-up and he throws the slider. You get three dominating pitches and you can't sit on anything. You think it's a fastball coming but it's a change-up and you swing at it anyway. Swing and a miss. Hence, Joey, I think we can pinpoint why he had the swing rate that he did back in the days.
Flash forward to the 2008/2009 offseason. Rich Harden, convinced that his glass shoulder was going to shatter completely (if it wasn't well on it's way already) decides to abandon one of his plus-plus pitches: the slider. Pitch FX on Fangraphs says he still throws it, but Pitch Type on Fangraphs says he does not. But let's look at 2009: fastball, changeup but no slider. Decent numbers, but a 4.3 BB/9 ratio. HR of 1.5/9. .304 BABIP. Once you delete a plus-plus pitch from your arsenal, and you're left with two pitches, batters can now sit on one or the other and square up.
Compare 2009 to 2010 and see how some of it matches up:
10.9 K/9 to 8.4 K/9. Attributable to switch from NL to AL, in my opinion.
1.47 HR/9 to 1.53 HR/9.
.304 BABIP to .306 BABIP.
The only major difference is the walks, going from 4.3 to 6.1. I think this can be attributed to scouting reports that tell batters that "here is a guy who throws two pitches, and is 'effectively wild.'" You sit on a fastball down the middle. You don't get it, good chance you're going to take a walk. Or you hack at the pitches that are close (hence the fouls). With only two pitches, there's not much deception.
That's who Harden has always been, and always will be. His removal of the slider has doomed him to mediocrity. He's not going to bring the slider back.
So what's the solution? Bullpen. The only place where a pitcher with two plus pitches can go. Because a fastball/changeup guy is NOT going to survive in the rotation.
The Rangers still owe harden $5M plus a $1M buyout.
Sunk costs.
He is threatening to cost the team a whole lot more than that going forward.
Where have you gone Kevin Millwood?
If Maddux gets credit for a new and improved pitching philosophy, etc... then he stands 1st in the "what's wrong with Texas' pitching" line.
I think that every team in baseball, save for the Rays and maybe the Yankees and Red Sox, have 1 starter (in their rotation) that's not always dependable. So, can the Rangers win with Harden having a bad outing 2 out of 3 starts; yes. However, the BIGGER issue (and it's certainly not only Harden) is the ridiculous high pitch counts all of the starters are hitting by the 5th or 6th inning. Lewis, CJ, Feldman, and of course Harden are hitting 100+ pitches by the 6th inning. And for now the bullpen has been pretty good but what are they going to look like in another month or so? They are all going to be so over-worked and ultimately deemed ineffective. That's the scary thing to me.
I blame Maddux for the SP high pitch count problems, and Wash for his use of the bullpen.
Somebody is telling these guys to "nibble more and work the hitters", instead of "pitch to contact and trust your defense".
I knew the Angels were going to get hot and make a run at 1st place... it was only a matter of time...and if the Rangers don't figure things out ASAP, we'll be in 2nd place looking up.
I think the Rangers better have Moscoso, Kirkman, BMac, etc... ready to contribute.
Joey & Daniel,
Beautiful shake-down on both your parts!
ps- Isn't 4-2 the same as 2 x (2 of 3)? Wasn't it right from the start?
Michael - Joey is sneaky. He had it as "split right down the middle" and then changed it.
@Rangers100: Yeah , I know the money is spent already. But it is a factor in wether they continue with Harden as is, try to DL him or release him. If he only cost $1M then it would be easier just to cut ties with him.
Pabloesque,
Where's that schedule-related optimism you noted so recently? Just teasin'.
Perhaps it has something to do with meeting Lee & King Felix 1, 2 as we start facing this next team "with a losing record". I agree with your red (not white, but nonetheless red) flag: if some relievers can rest on the DL soon with "burn-out" -- as summer is a comin' in-- maybe we can take advantage of a couple well restricted, innings-limited guys (eg Ogando, and Schepp after his 7-day DL stint) and the rested-by-default-BMac to bolster our pen through July-Aug, so they're fresh again in Sept.
Harden in the pen (per Daniel's case) --after Holland returns-- should also help their beleaguered arms .
To everybody who keeps saying "put Harden on the DL," be aware that a team can't do that without a medical reason - the union will get involved, file grievances, etc. And yes, medical records will be scrutinized in the process, so there better be something medical actually going on. For a current example, see the Mets and Oliver Perez, currently being investigated for placing him on the DL after he refused assignment to the minors. (The Mets may be OK with this one, though, as Perez had knee surgery last fall and that is listed as the DL reason - we'll see.)
@ geo: With Harden's history, it wouldn't take much to convince anyone that Rich is hurt.
http://www.baseballinjurytool.com/injury-tool.php
They are trying to stretch Scheppers out. I think he would be a better asset in the bullpen, but the Rangers want him to start games and pitch six or seven innings in the minors. I'm not sure there thinking on this, but it seems like they don't want him to be an option for bullpen relief.
A guy doesn't really have to be hurt to put him on the DL. They already did that with Arias. And the more attractive part for the Rangers is that they do not have to pay his salary during this time because it gets picked up by the insurance company. They used that trick with Chan Ho Park a lot. They'd send Chan Ho down to OKC, he'd say his back was fine and then he'd have one bad outing and say his back didn't hurt and then he was told his back hurt and he was back on the DL. They did that at least three times.
The surprise with Harden would be if he wasn't on the DL. He can come up with a bad back, weak shoulder, tired arm or just about anything.
@ RA: You sure the insurance compamy picks up the tab on a simple 15 day DL?
I don't know how it works. But I do remember reading about how the insurance company was paying Chan Ho's salary when he was having "back problems." The Rangers were running an obvious scam.
Depends on the wording of the policy. I am willing to bet that any loop hole that existed has been closed.
I bet not. I'm sure the Rangers have covered themselves with his injury history.
We are getting very close to a DL visit. The problem the Rangers have is that Harden is not pitching well enough to get himself injured. So an injury is going to have to be created. It will be something that just puts him on the 15-day DL. But this injury will just not progress very well and linger and linger until September when the roster expands or a pitching injury creates a need to bring him back at which point he will make a rapid recovery.
If this mysterious injury lasts until September then the Rangers can let the insurance company pay the bill because he'll probably need to be out at least 60 days for that to happen. That will save them two or three million.
I'm going to predict he pitches another month and then has a mysterious injury that can linger or get better overnight. They'll keep him on hand just in case they need him. If they don't, the insurance company will pay the bill and Harden can get ready for another contract next season with another team after an offseason "rehabilitation" program.
In another month, he'll probably be ready for a mental holiday and write off this season. A mysterious nonthreatening injury will probably be better for his contract next year instead of pitching bad the rest of the season.
Harden may not be willing to go along with that sort of thing though. He may want to pitch in which case the Rangers will have to figure out what to do with him. At best, they'll be able to DL him for a tune up and hope for the best when he comes back.
According to Will Carroll,
@injuryexpert Very few contracts are insured. 10% max and there's a long elimination period.
It looks like not many contracts are covered at all anymore, and even then only for a small amount.
@ Rob M., I realize Harden has injuriy history, that why I brought up Oliver Perez as an example. He has a substantial injury history as well, which I mentioned, and MLB was still suspicious of the DL placement. They look at these much more closely than they used to.
www.baseball-intellect.com has a very cursory look at a couple of pitches Harden threw that is interesting.
Hey, guys, you'ld like to put Harden on the DL but he ain't injured? No problems! Next time he pitches make him throw a complete game. 200 pitches ought to do the job. And if he's still OK repeat the dose the following day.The trouble is that I seriously doubt that The FO would order such a course, and I'm quite certain That Ron W would refuse anyway. But why not give it a go? It's not as if the players we talk about are actually human, are they?
I feel that Harden is working on an extremely short leash. After tonight I believe Matt Harrison pitched much better than Harden or Feldman. Not to mention that Hunter and Holland (once he returns from the DL) have all thrown some great games. The FO has some tough thinking ahead of them once Holland is ready. All this being said, above all I want the Rangers to win. So I hope and pray that Harden figures it out. Go Ranger!!
"Unless you're one of the outlying few who condones giving a legitimate shot to Michael Kirkman or Guillermo Moscoso, the Rangers don't wield any other appealing options."
See Matt Harrison......
When the Rangers got Harden I worried that something wasn't right. Seriously, where were all the other big teams looking for another pitcher? Clearly a LOT Of teams knew what the Rangers seemingly ignored....Harden's best is behind him.
Now, what do you do with Harden? Trade him? Who knows. Who would take him?