Wednesday Morning Rangers Notes: When It All Falls Down
Darren Oliver tries to figure out where things went so horribly wrong on Tuesday, June 29th.Here's something to consider in the context of last night's top of the seventh inning, when Ian Kinsler tried -- and failed miserably -- to notch a one-out bunt single with Michael Young occupying first base in a 6-3 game: Not only is the major league bunt hit success rate in man-on-first-and-one-out situations stunningly low (a meager 29.8 percent, from 1970-2006), but Kinsler, whose on-base percentage (.387) ranks second among all qualifying major league second basemen, has a lifetime bunt hit success rate of 32.7 percent, a mark which hardly justifies the forgone power and on-base value.
I understand that there's something to be gained from keeping the opposing defense honest with the "element of surprise" and what not, but (a) the historical data suggests that was an inherently poor game situation for Kinsler to attempt to pull off such a gambit, (b) attempting to bunt for a hit eliminates any prospect of an extra-base hit, which significantly deflates whatever offensive expectations you might have had of Kinsler in that plate appearance, and (c) Kinsler's not that good at bunting for hits anyway. Ron Washington assuredly didn't call for that, but it's time for the manager -- or the bench coach, or somebody -- to figure out a way to curtail such poor in-game tactical decisions by the players:
● 28-year-old Omar Beltre will make his major league debut tonight in Anaheim; Texas has not yet announced the corresponding roster move necessary to clear room for Beltre's placement on the active roster (Richard Durrett, ESPN.com)
[Well, it's a better idea than throwing Matt Harrison or Dustin Nippert at the Angels and watching everything go up in flames. Scout.com's Jason Cole recently observed Beltre sitting at 93-94 mph -- topping out at 96 mph -- at Triple-A Oklahoma City, boasting strong bottom-half command with a heater which he complements with a mid-80s splitter and low-80s slider. Repertoire-wise, this seems somewhat comparable to the arsenal wielded by the Mets' Mike Pelfrey, but such analysis is simplistic, and Pelfrey isn't a swing-and-miss guy in the vein of Beltre. Harrison is probably the odds-on favorite to get optioned to the minors, although Chris Ray still has some dark-horse candidacy in that regard.]
● The acquisition cost for Cliff Lee "should be lower than the last two times he was traded"; however, one front-office official from an unnamed American League team stated Monday night that trading for Lee would require the Mets to part with "three of [their] best prospects" (Ken Rosenthal, FOXSports.com; Matt Pignataro, NYBaseballDigest.com)
[Rosenthal suggests that an offer on the Yankees' end comprising baseball's top "catching" prospect, Jesus Montero (he's likely destined for 1B/DH work), and a "solid pitching prospect" could seal the deal for Lee; interesting timing on that, as ESPN.com's Keith Law dropped his updated top 25 prospects list yesterday and pegged Montero as the No. 6 prospect in baseball ... and Double-A Frisco southpaw Martin Perez at No. 5. The market for Lee hasn't exactly been established beyond a shadow of a doubt, and thus we're really not sure if the Mariners' expectedly high demands are going to be completely out of line with the market, but I have an extremely difficult time fathoming how Texas could swing a deal without including at least one of Perez/T. Scheppers/D. Holland.]
25 Comments | in Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (25)
Kinsler's not good at it...that's the key. When Nellie tried the same thing the other night, I said the same thing. How many times has that guy ever bunted in a game, even on a sac bunt?
I'm okay with Elvis doing it in certain situations where the surprise element can work to his favor, and maybe even Borbon. But the rest need to swing away.
I'm more upset with Young swinging at ball 3 on a 2-0 count to end the eighth.
This team has managed to avoid, for the most part, stupid decisions on the field. Against the Astros and Pirates, that's assures your not being yourself...which is the only way to really lose to those teams. The Angels will take every advantage of your mistakes, so hopefully we'll quit making them.
* that assures you're not beating yourself.
I agree with JRB on the bunting attempts. But Ron is at fault for putting the idea in thier head.
A top tier prospect might be required if Lee were traded today but not on 7/31.
On the topic of trade rumors, ESPN's Jerry Crasnick will be joining me on the BP Podcast this week to discuss the market for a player like Lee. Should be a good listen. I'll link to it on Friday when it is released. From what I have heard, the haul for Lee will be better than (Aumont, Gillies, Ramirez) and could possibly take up to three top prospects, as Rosenthal reported.
Ultimate Question: If the Rangers think that acquiring Lee makes them a legit World Series contender, do you think it is a good idea to push the chips in and trade a package of Scheppers, Salty, Ross, Beavan+, (This might not even be enough) for what might turn into a two month rental of Lee? It's a ballsy move, but if Lee is the piece that elevates this team to that level of contention, do you make the trade?
I still wonder how Lee is magically worth more now then he was a year ago or 6 months ago. The player with less service time left is suddenly worth more. It just doesn't compute.
I am with JRB, the DUMB play of the game was MYoung swinging at a 2-0 pitch that was way inside. Just awful.
JP: I wouldn't do it not do I think JD would. However, I think Nolan might.
How can Lee be worth more than what the Phillies got for him? Two reasons: One, the Phillies were flat-out robbed. They settled for way less of a package than they coule have or should have. Two, the Mariners don't have</> to trade him, especially not for anything less than a package they demand. He's not costing them a lot of money and they can hold on if they don't like the offers and instead get two first round picks in next year's heavily talent-laden draft when he goes away in free agency.
If Oliver gets the 2-2 call (easily a strike), the game moves on with the Rangers having a great chance to win, despite another weak Feldman start.
That's how baseball go.
Get 'em tonight.
When I saw Ian turn to bunt last night a flurry of expletives swirled through my mind. Why would your #3 hitter lay down a sac bunt? I'm sure it seemed like a good idea at the time, but what it says about Ian's confidence to get an extra base hit does not encourage me. As for the Lee trade, I would be okay with trading Davis and one of our pitching prospects. I don't think two months of pitching is worth more than that. However, I just hope Chris doesn't turn out to be Adrian Gonzalez, and Lee to be Adam Eaton.
I generally like Ron Washington, but he needs to take back control of his team. Letting his players decide whether or not to bunt on their own has gotten old. He needs to lay down the law and tell his players that they don't bunt unless they see the sign for a bunt or else they'll be benched. He also needs to play the percentages better when deciding when to bunt. If he already ripped Ian a new one the last time he pulled that crap, then a) shame on Ian and b) I'd prefer not to see Ian start the game tonight.
I'm not sure he would have ripped Ian a new one. If he did that every time someone made a mistake, we wouldn't be running into as many outs on the base paths. Your #3 hitter shouldn't be bunting with a guy on base. His drop is to bring him home. Kinsler had already had a good game hitting, so why try and bunt? It you say its for the element of surprise, I'm not sure if I agree with that either. He has been trying to bunt multiple times over the past week. So you would think the other team would have at least an idea that he was trying to bunt more since no one was respecting it.
Bottom line is, Kinsler is hitting third to drive in runs. I'm not going to blame Washington, but he does need to take control of his guys and tell them what is ok and what is not.
Regarding Kinsler's bunt decision; I think this is an excellent example of a team with little experience. This is certainly not the 1st gaffe by Kinsler and/or his younger/inexperienced teamates. It seems that routinely this teams at least 1 or 2 poor choices per game... choices that wouldn't even be a factor with veteran players, such as the Angels.
I know that vets make bad decisions too... but they are usually not in a "significant" situation, i.e.; Vlad trying to stretch a single into a double in a 10-1 game.
Also regarding Kinsler; I can't help but wonder if he is a bit of a maverick... and as a result, he sometimes makes poor decisions.
Regarding Beltre - is it remotely possible that Wash, JD and co. are throwing Beltre into the mix because a) they don't want the Angels to get a better look at a SP that they will certainly face in one of the 15 head-to-head matchups... and/or b) to sort of throw up the white flag and give the younger guys an excuse if the Angels sweep or win this series. That way, when the play the Angels next, they could look back and instead of thinking "oh man, we got our ass kicked using one of our better starting pitchers", they would have the excuse of "we threw a rookie last time and that's why we lost".
Maybe I'm over-thinking it... but it is a theory that made some sense to me.
Regarding Lee; if interested, the Yankees will acquire Lee... regardless of the cost (in terms prospects)... and I'm sure they will ask for, and recieve, assurance he will sign with them long term. It sucks... and some of this is sour grapes but the Yankess depict all that is wrong in pro sports. There is no level playing field when they are involved.
I would offer a package including Beavan and maybe Pedro Strop and if they balk, so be it... at least you made an offer. Just walk away and ride the horses that put us 1st place. And besides, Harden is bound to come back at some point and there's a decent chance he will regain his ace like abilities. Lewis and CJ have already shown us that they can shut a team down... and so has Hunter. If Feldman figures things out, you're looking at a pretty tough 1-4 rotation. **Maybe Beltre fills that #5 slot... I guess we'll see tonight.
BTW - how many of you HATE the west coast 9:05pm CST start time? It sucks and if alignment really does happen, the Rangers have to be rolled under the NL or AL Central. Imagine a future NL Central division:
Rangers
Cards
Reds
Brewers
Astros
Cubs
Atlanta
** Move the Pirates to the NL East. Move the Mets to the AL East
Or the AL Central may even be a better fit:
Rangers
White Sox
Tigers
Twins
Royals
** Move the Indians to the NL East, move the Phillies to the AL East, move the Orioles and Blue Jays to the NL East... and put the Braves in either the NL or AL Central.
Lots of moving parts and I just threw this together without much thought... so please don't crucify me.
Last night was just awful in the managing and hitting department. First Ron left Scott out there for the 6th when it was apparent he was getting into trouble. I was screaming for Ogando to start the 6th to be the bridge to get to Oday/Oliver in the 7th with Frankie and Neftali for 8th and 9th. Instead they leave Feldman who was throwing only low 90s to get runners on then bring in the soft throwing lefty whos throwing mid-upper 80s. Why did they atleast not bring in Ogando to face the righty first then Oliver to Abreu? Then MY swings on a 2-0 count with basesloaded especially when the reliever is struggling you let him off. I wont even begin on the Ian Kinsler brain fart! Its been well covered.
Anyways. Cliff Lee
I would love to have Cliff Lee on this staff and I think along with Colby Lewis that it can beat Sabathia and Pettitte/Burnett. But what do you have to give up to get him? Mariners are asking for players to help in 2012 and looking for outfield help as well and lefthanded pitching. I would trade Harrison, CD and Moreland for Lee in a heartbeat but I dont think they bite. The player that I would try to trade to get Lee would be Derek Holland, Mitch Moreland plus lower level prospect(s) and this should satisfy the needs for the Ms. I am a huge Holland fan and would hate to give him up. But the Rangers can afford to trade one of their better pitching prospects like Holland because players like M. Perez, Scheppers, Bevan, and Kirkman who is vastly improving will still belong in the system. If the Ms arent satisfied with Moreland than I would swiitch with C.Davis. This trade should get done and bring atleast one playoff series win and maybe a Division Title. Then in the W.S. anything can happen.
Rob Neyer said yesterday that a Perez & Davis offer for Lee would be laughed at by the Mariners:
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/33206
About Perez, "I see a guy who's the same age and level as Jordan Lyles but isn't pitching nearly as well. Granted, he's incredibly young and has a lot of room to grow. He's also walked a ton of guys this season and I suspect the M's would prefer someone who's a bit more polished."
If that's the case, perhaps James's suggestion of Derek Holland rather than Perez would fill the bill.
Seems like Scoscia stole another one from Wash. He's just so much more technically sound. The Rangers have a just as good or better rotation, a much superior bullpen, a slight edge on defense, and a better offense all-around. If we can just get decent execution with men on, we'll win the majority of the games remaining with LAA.
Here's to Omar making a worthwhile debut...Go Rangers!
29.8 percent? Last I checked, a .298 batting average was pretty good. Hall of Fame in a lot of cases.
In fact, Kinsler hits .294 (29.4 percent) when swinging the bat. Seems like he has a better chance with the bunt, if the 29.8 is correct.
Lawyered
I won't blame Wash for Ian's mistake, unless he doesn't say anything and it happens again. It's all on Ian and I don't even know what he was thinking. He's been on a tear lately, so he's going to bunt in a 3 run game? Dumb! If the Rangers come through with some hits when they needed them earlier in the game we wouldn't be talking about this,but...... I guess this kind of thing gets magnified when you've been playing very good baseball. Let's remember that if the Rangers win one game this whole series is pretty much meaningless.
Maybe Beltre is up because the Rangers want to see if they even need to make a trade. If he comes in and pitches like Ogando (who should have started the 6th last night) then hopefully JD will stick with what he has.
Cliff Lee = Chan Ho
At least in Arlington 7.36 ERA
So unless the plan is only to pitch him on the road and give up only extras to get him, NO!.
@ Mcfleet
Not much chance of walking or hitting for extra bases when you bunt so you would have to look at OBP at least if not OPS.
Rangers513: Last night's bunt WAS Wash not addressing it/Kinsler not listening and doing it again. This was the second time that Kinsler tried that. That's why I put this one on Washington. I try not to jump the gun and immediately blame Wash, but this isn't the first time.
Did someone (Ranger513) really just compare Cliff Lee to Chan Ho Park?!? I'm hoping that was sarcastic/joke but it doesn't appear that's the case.
@Dave you are right I guess I missed the other one try to catch as many of the Rangers games as I can but must of missed it. Not a big Washington fan so I'm ok with putting it on him.
@Drew my bad Chan Ho's ERA in Arlington 5.74, my apologies to Mr. Park.
Don't get me wrong Lee of course is a better pitcher, but he's never pitched well at the Ballpark, I don't want to trade the future for a couple of months, and when was the last time we had a big name pitcher pitch well for us. Ideally I would like to see the Yanks trade their future for him and we hammer him in the playoffs when he pitches in Arlington. I love the young pitchers that we have and have yet to see, bout to see one in a few.
@Ranger513
I was just pointing out that 29.8 percent is not meager. It's 100 points above the mendoza line. Meaning, it's acceptable. Was the timing right? Of course not. I'm just arguing the case against the author's evidence. Stats can blow up on you if you don't consider them from all angles.