Fastball/Slider/Split: The Future Of The Rangers' Bullpen
Tanner Scheppers deals during an Arizona Fall League contest in October 2009.The Rangers might have more quality relief prospects in the upper minors than any team in baseball. Alexi Ogando, Pedro Strop, Omar Beltre, Guillermo Moscoso, Zach Phillips, Josh Lueke, and Warner Madrigal all feature 90-plus mph fastballs and at least one above-average secondary pitch.
Add Tanner Scheppers and Michael Kirkman to the list and the organization currently has nine pitchers at Double-A Frisco and Triple-A Oklahoma City with the combination of stuff and performance to be quality major league relievers.
2010 Performances of a Few Rangers Pitching Prospects
Moscoso, Ogando, and Kirkman have been slightly prone to fly balls. Beltre and Kirkman have struggled with their control. Beyond that, there's not much to complain about and a whole lot to be excited by. Noteworthy are Strop's significant improvement in walk rate (2.6 BB/9 in 2010 vs. 4.9 BB/9 in 2007-2009), Phillips' uptick in strikeouts (11.0 K/9 in 2010 vs. 8.7 prior to 2010), and Scheppers' and Ogando's dominant debuts.
Five of the pitchers (Strop, Ogando, Beltre, Lueke, and Madrigal) feature the same three-pitch mix -- four-seam fastball, slider, split-finger fastball. A look at Pitch f/x data from last season reveals that there were ten major league relievers who tossed at least 40 innings using a fastball/slider/splitter combo (see table below). Four of the ten were closers and six of the ten were among their team's most valuable relievers. As expected, there is a strong correlation between fastball value and performance and the most effective relievers on the list combined a good fastball with at least one aboveaverage secondary pitch. The least effective relievers on the list struggled with control.
Available Pitch f/x data and scouting reports indicate that the pitch velocities recorded by the Rangers' relief prospects are indistinguishable from the major league relievers. The fastball velocities of the Rangers' three hardest throwers -- Ogando, Strop, and Lueke -- rank alongside the major league closers on this list.
Fastball/Slider/Splitter Relievers -- Majors vs. Rangers' Prospects
Explanation of Table
Pitch velocities and values for major league relievers are from FanGraphs from 2009. Velocities are in MPH. Values are as follows:
● ++ = >1.00 win/100 pitches
● + = 0.10 to 1.00 wins/100 pitches
● 0 = -0.10 to 0.10 wins/100 pitches
● - = -1.00 to -0.10 wins/100 pitches
● -- = < -1.00 wins/100 pitches
[Strop's and Madrigal's pitch velocities are from major league Pitch f/x data. Ogando's pitch velocities are from 2010 spring training Pitch f/x data. Lueke's and Beltre's velocities are from scouting reports by Jason Parks and Jason Cole.]
Because command, consistency, pitch movement, mound presence, and pitch deception are significant factors in determining pitch value, it is unclear whether the Rangers' prospects will enjoy the same level of success as the major league pitchers. It is worth noting, however, that the 2010 minor league performances of the Rangers' pitchers (table above) are similar to the Double-A and Triple-A numbers posted by the present-day major league relievers (table below).
Intriguingly, the AA/AAA stats of the major league relievers are very consistent with what they have posted in the major leagues. While there is certainly a selection bias at play here, it seems likely that several of the Rangers' minor league relievers will soon be making significant contributions out of the major league bullpen.
Career Minor and Major League Stats of Major League Relievers
[* -- Starting pitcher in AA/AAA; reliever in major leagues. # -- Major league numbers are pre-injury only.]
21 Comments | in Analysis, The Season
Reader Comments (21)
Since this post is all about examining internal means of upgrading the bullpen, here's some numbers on Chris Ray:
April 2010: 8.2 IP, 5.06 FIP, 0.59 pLI (pLI = average leverage index)
May 2010: 14.0 IP, 5.53 FIP, 1.32 pLI
Looking at the aggregate numbers, Ron Washington has, for the second year in a row, been solid when it comes to effective bullpen leveraging. What concerns me, however, is that Ray appears to be getting into progressively higher-leverage games despite worsening peripheral-based performance. He's also tied for the team lead in "meltdown" appearances (WPA less than or equal to -0.06 in any given game), with five. This is a disaster waiting to happen.
I've been thinking about Ray a lot lately, and have arrived at the determination that he's in line to fall to the back of the bullpen pack in terms of performance very soon, despite what I would consider to be adequate raw stuff ... his ERA, the one and only thing working in his favor, has spiked to 3.47, and it's completely incongruent with his K/9, BB/9 and so on.
I understand the motivation to get Ogando/Scheppers as much work in a lower-leverage environment as possible, but it may be a good idea to preempt a total implosion by Ray and get somebody up here who stands a reasonable chance of catching some lightning in a bottle.
“Add Tanner Scheppers and Michael Kirkman to the list and the organization currently has nine pitchers at Double-A Frisco and Triple-A Oklahoma City with the combination of stuff and performance to be quality major league relievers.”
David –
Per the Newberg Report - Steve Holley of Scout.com recently spoke to RedHawks pitching coach Terry Clark (as shared by Lone Star Dugout’s Jason Cole), and Clark had this to say about Scheppers: “He’ll be starting within a couple of weeks. He’ll go four innings (in his first start) and then next month, he’ll probably go to five. That’s what we all look at him as – a starter down the road.”
Looking down the road Tanner (and maybe still Feliz) project as starters to me. Now the Rangers do seem to have adopted Nolan’s philosophy of bringing starters up through the bull pen so Tanner may see some time there depending on need.
Bonus points for me - a few weeks ago on the Sunday Morning Questions, I was the only one to have Tanner Scheppers in the starting rotation after the All-Star Break.
Kiss my feet, you swine!
Also, Omar Beltre started last night for OKC and went 6! Who would have thunk he would be a starter?
Great analysis. There's ample opportunity for the Rangers to have the youngest, yet most effective, bullpen in the game. Consider the current make-up of the pen: I just don't see Francisco, Ray and Nippert being long-term members of this staff. Seems like O'Day can go one way or the other. Oliver, despite his age, still might have 2 years, maybe more, as one of those veteran pitchers who age gracefully.
So, assuming that Feliz and Oliver are your key pieces going forward, there's lots of room for a few of these guys to transition to the big club. My bet is on Scheppers, Strop, Ogando, Beltre and/or Lueke being on this staff within the year.
The Rangers bullpen has performed slightly above average thus far in 2010. Assuming their usage and performances remain relatively static through the season, the Rangers current bullpen members should have the following values in 2010 -
Feliz: 2.1 WAR
Oliver: 2.1 WAR
Francisco: 1.5 WAR
O'Day: 1.2 WAR
Ray: -0.6 WAR
Nippert: -0.9 WAR
Harrison: ?
According to FanGraphs, Neftali Feliz was worth 1.1 wins above replacement in the 31 innings he pitched in 2009. Based on their stuff and 2010 performances, Strop, Ogando, and Scheppers could potentially have similar impacts on the major league team this season. Replacing Ray and Nippert with two of Strop, Ogando, and Scheppers during the second half of the season could potentially improve the team by 2-3 wins. A bullpen with 6 or 7 above average relievers would provide the team with a huge advantage over the other AL West teams in the second half of 2010.
Looking beyond 2010, the Rangers appear likely to benefit from having multiple talented relievers with options whom they can shuttle between Oklahoma and Texas to ensure that they keep their bullpen rested. Having 9 or 10 high quality relievers between the major league team and AAA will allow the organization to reduce workload and minimize the effects of pitcher slumps.
I enjoyed getting to see Stop pitch last night only days after he was featured in the "Highest Ceilings in the System" feature. He threw one splitty last night and it was filthy.."trap door" action indeed! His fastball had good velo, but look awfully straight to me. I love the scouting reports and in depth analysis on here.
Bonus points for me - a few weeks ago on the Sunday Morning Questions, I was the only one to have Tanner Scheppers in the starting rotation after the All-Star Break.
Kiss my feet, you swine!
I will fall over in shock if the Rangers opt to rely upon a true rookie with no major league experience in their rotation in a pennant race.
Yes, James, Scheppers may start in OKC this year, but if he comes to Arlington, he'll be in the bullpen. He looks like a solid candidate for the 2011 rotation, though, at least at some point during the year.
Might this apparent RP depth allow the Rangers to trade Frankie at the deadline?
Pennant schmennant. (How many times has that ever been said outloud in the history of man?)
Might this apparent RP depth allow the Rangers to trade Frankie at the deadline?
major
It would be a very radical move -- if not downright unprecedented -- for a team in the heat of a pennant race to deal one of its 2-3 best relievers for anything less than something immediately and materially benefiting the major league team. And considering that the only teams that would be interested in Francisco would also be playoff-contending teams and, by virtue of that, unwilling to weaken other aspects of their rosters, I can't imagine that a Francisco deal would be in the cards.
"Looking beyond 2010, the Rangers appear likely to benefit from having multiple talented relievers with options whom they can shuttle between Oklahoma and Texas to ensure that they keep their bullpen rested."
Something that has always puzzled me is the assumption that pitching at AA/AAA is somewhat akin to lying on a beach resting. Surely innings pitched in the minors are just as taxing as those pitched in the majors? I would have thought that the only way to keep a pitcher "fresh" would be to shuttle him to and from the DL. What am I missing?
Although I have never played AA or AAA ball, I would think that it is not quite as stressful. They are throwing against opponents that are not as good as what they face at the majors. The "pressure situations" are not really what most pitchers would consider pressure packed. I know you will probably say I am missing something or am wrong due to the fact that I have never played in a game there, I have attended a few and it just isn't the same atmosphere.
With that being said, they are still throwing pitches, so as to say they are fully rested, as if "on a beach", would not be accurate.
Anthony - Because there is less emphasis on winning in the minor leagues, coaches are less inclined to over-use their best relievers. Minor league pitchers are also more likely to pitch only on designated days (every 3rd day, for instance). Major league pitchers who have been over-used or gotten into a funk, can be DL'd or send to AAA in favor of a minor league replacement. That can allow them to recuperate and work on improving a weakness rather than focusing on getting the next guy out. Having 10 guys who are all major league quality and many of whom have options is a great way to keep a fresh and effective major league bullpen.
Or more simply they don't have to pitch the overused reliever until they feel it's in his best interest.
Thank you! Makes sense, although I guess it puts extra work in the way of those pitchers who aren't in line for a call-up. And who'ld be a AAA manager....
Anthony - Because there is less emphasis on winning in the minor leagues, coaches are less inclined to over-use their best relievers.
One could also pose the argument that relievers are less prone to the risk of overthrowing in high-leverage situations at AAA, since there's ostensibly less incentive for doing so at AAA relative to the majors, but that's only a theory extrapolated from other data.
I am sick of hearling about the rangers prospects and supposedly how "great" they are. Do I need to point out how many "great" prospects Jon Daniels has traded away (Adrian Gonzalez, Edison Volquez, John Danks, Mark Texiera, and pitcher Chris Young among others). Also has any of these "great" prospects got the Rangers back into the playoffs? No, it has not. Until there are results I personally do not want to hear anymore about how great the Rangers prospects are.
Also has any of these "great" prospects got the Rangers back into the playoffs? No, it has not. Until there are results I personally do not want to hear anymore about how great the Rangers prospects are.
So, we shouldn't get excited about any young talent? We shouldn't have been excited about Elvis Andrus or Derek Holland or Justin Smoak or Neftali Feliz as they were coming up? The whole point is that this is the wave of talent that is supposed to get Texas back to the playoffs.
Nice list. I will use it in future. Thanks for the efforts to make this list!Nice list. I will use it in future. Thanks for the efforts to make this list!