The Curious Case Of Christopher Davis
Once upon a time, Chris Davis was one of the most highly regarded position prospects in baseball. In his first full professional season in 2007, Davis hit 36 home runs and batted .297/.347/.598 as a 21-year-old in the California and Texas Leagues. Baseball America ranked him No. 65 on its annual top 100 prospects list. Davis was even better as a 22-year-old, as he hit .335/.376/.618 in 202 plate appearances in AA, .333/.402/.685 in 127 plate appearances in AAA, and .285/.331/.549 in 317 plate appearances in the major leagues. Had he been eligible, Davis would have ranked among the top 20 prospects in baseball at the end of 2008.
And then came the first three months of the 2009 season. The Rangers' starting first baseman struck out in 41.2 percent of his plate appearances en route to a .202/.256/.415 slash line. Davis was sent to AAA where he reduced his strikeout rate to 23.6 percent, increased his walk rate to 12.8 percent, and hit .327/.418/.521. Davis returned to Arlington for the last two months of 2009 and hit a much more respectable .308/.338/.496, while striking out in 25.4 percent of his plate appearances. Davis’ reduced strikeout rate did come with a cost, as his extra-base hit rate dropped to 29 percent from the 49 percent that he had posted during his minor and major league career up to that point.
Davis got off to a slow start again in 2010, hitting .188/.282/.294 in 53 major league at-bats before he was demoted to the minors. In 213 plate appearances for the Triple-A Oklahoma City Redhawks, Davis has hit .352/.406/.539, and struck out in just 21.7 percent of his at-bats after striking out in 35.4 percent of his major league at-bats at the beginning of 2010.
The root cause of Davis’ problems in 2009 and 2010 is easy to identify: Through his first three professional seasons, Davis posted nearly identical numbers against left- and right-handed pitchers (.300/.352/.603 and .303/.353/.558 vs. minor league right- and left-handed pitchers, respectively, and .288/.336/.534 and .286/.330/.607 vs. major league right- and left-handed pitchers, respectively). In 2009, Davis continued to hit right-handers well, but he suddenly lost his way against lefties (see graph below). It started with a 44 percent strikeout rate and a .141/.203/.282 line vs. major league left-handers at the beginning of the 2009 season.
Although he had decimated left-handed pitchers in AAA the year before (.310/.382/.724), Davis "struggled" against Triple-A left-handers after his demotion, hitting .283/.316/.491 in 53 plate appearances while hitting .351/.463/.581 in 111 plate appearances against right-handers. Until a few days ago, the trend had continued in 2010 as Davis had dominated right-handed pitchers in AAA (.363/.413/.575) and struggled against left-handers (.267/.367/.267). In the past week, Davis has two singles, two doubles, and a HBP to raise his season line against lefties to .306/.381/.389. That is beginning to approach respectable, but a far cry from what he is doing against right-handers.
The strange thing about the sudden change in Davis’ performance is that there was not a readily apparent alteration in how major league left-handers approached pitching to him. As noted in the first table below, Davis has seen roughly the same distribution of pitches from left-handers in each of his major league stints. Davis’ lack of performance against left-handers in early 2009 derived almost exclusively from an inability to hit fastballs, as the rate that he put balls in play dropped from 17 percent in 2008 to five percent in the first half of 2009. He improved his in-play rate on fastballs from major league left-handers to 13 percent in the second half of 2009 and to 16 percent in early 2010; thus, this does not appear to be a recurring problem. With that said, his overall struggles with left-handers appear unlikely to go away soon.
LHP Pitch Usage vs. Chris Davis (Major Leagues, 2008-2010)
Chris Davis Going Forward
Prior to each season, Baseball Prospectus publishes a list of players whose age-appropriate statistical profiles are most similar to each player in the league. Earlier this year, the 15 players with statistical profiles through their age-23 seasons that were most similar to Chris Davis comprised eight players who became everyday contributors in the major leagues and included Eric Karros (No. 1), Glenn Davis (No. 4), Joey Votto (No. 6), Lee Stevens (No. 9), Richie Sexson (No. 12), and David Ortiz (No. 14).
According to the Minor League Equivalency Calculator, Davis’ .361/.414/.564 in 202 Triple-A at-bats would be equivalent to a major league line of .305/.354/.459. That’s Adam LaRoche/Gaby Sanchez-level production. Davis’ .368/.418/.583 in 163 Triple-A at-bats against right-handed pitchers translates to a major league line of .312/.358/.482, while his .306/.381/.389 against left-handers would be equivalent to .259/.302/.326 in the majors. Davis is Ryan Howard when facing right-handers and a Triple-A journeyman when facing left-handers.
Davis’ hitting against left-handers seems likely to improve as he gains experience against quality southpaws. Most power hitters improve their slugging and walk rates through their age-27 or -28 seasons. Given that he is still just 24 years old and that he advanced quickly through the minor leagues, it is very likely that Davis will improve significantly in the next few seasons.
If the Rangers resist the temptation to trade Davis, the challenge will be in finding a role for him. In the near-term, he appears ideally suited as the left-handed component of a 1B/DH platoon. Unfortunately for Davis, the major league team doesn’t currently have that need. Although the sample sizes and metric quality are too limited to be sure, it appears that Davis is making progress with his defense at third base (see table below). Assuming that is the case, then it is possible that Davis could provide Young, Smoak, and Guerrero with an occasional day off and pinch hit for a catcher when the situation calls for a left-handed hitter. That’s not the most valuable thing in the world, but it appears to be role that Davis can fill. For now, Davis provides excellent insurance for injuries that affect 1B, 3B, or DH.
By 2011, Davis could be a part of the solution at DH or 1B if Vlad departs as a free agent. By 2012, Davis could potentially platoon with or perhaps even replace Michael Young as the team’s third baseman. If he spends another month in the minors, then Davis will be under club control through the 2015 season, when he will be 29 years old. Davis is unlikely to be the perennial All-Star that many hoped for following his 2008 season, but it appears very likely that he will eventually develop into a player who could be a key contributor to a contending team. And for now, he is the most interesting position player in the Rangers’ minor league system.
19 Comments | in Analysis, The Season
Reader Comments (19)
Great article have always rooted for davis even though he seems a little cocky. The thing is there is no room for him on our team this year. Hopefully we can package him for a SP at the deadline. Either way if he stays I hope he can turn his AAA numbers into ML numbers. I am really on the fence with this guy if you can tell. Trade or keep?
His only role with the Rangers seems to be a platooner at DH, if anything. Too bad - because I really like Christopher Davis and I wish him well (as I figure he's going to be traded within the next 6 weeks.)
What kind of trade value does CD have right now, anyway?
Personally, I'd hate to see him go, because I'm a fan, and, besides, I have this fear that he'll be traded and immediately turn into Adrian Gonzales.
"Although the sample sizes and metric quality are too limited to be sure, it appears that Davis is making progress with his defense at third base (see table below). "
As a big fan of both Davis and Smoak this is the best news in the entire article for me.
I would love Davis come back up next year as the utility IF and part-time DH (hopefully the Rangers can retain Vlad). Then he could eventually replace Young at 3B.
BTW, who knows - if he could return to 2008 batting and transfer his 1B skills to 3B he yet maybe the perinnial All Star we once hoped he would be. Smoak, Kinsler, Andrus, and Davis - your 2014 All Star infield. One can dream..........................
Jon Daniels dealt Chris Young and Adrian Gonzales to the Padres for Otsuka, another pitcher who didn't want to be here (I forget his name) and a bag of poo. I bet he won't make the same mistake again with Chris Davis. It may not seem like it, but Chris Davis is a valuable piece right now, if only because Michael Young has gotten hurt the last two seasons. Davis would be able to fill in for both Young and Smoak if they got dinged. JD will trade him, but only if the deal is right. If not, he'll hold on to him for as long as he can. It's the smart thing to do.
I admired Chris Davis for how he handled himslef when he struggled and I am pulling for him no matter where he lands.
Great read...! I forgot the fact that he's only 24. He seems much older.
The idea of him platooning at 3B, 1B, and sometimes at DH actually seems like a good plan... with 1 caveat; that he gets regular work. If he's going to come up and play 2 or 3 times a week then I say leave him in the minors and have him continue working his craft at 3B.
Despite what I've said in recent days, I think it would be a colossal mistake to include him in any deal at this point. We have no idea if Smoak will be productive and healthy. And like you said, he could replace Young at 3B, if needed.
BTW - I do NOT see Davis as cocky... if anything I see him as approachable and humble. I personally think that Smoak seems a bit arrogant and full of himself.
Shouldn't we be discussing how the Rangers are killing right now? They look virtually unbeatable. My only disapointment is that over the course of the last 2 weeks, we only have a 3.5 game lead. The flip side of that is if we only won say 7 of 10, the Angels would be in 1st.
I just don't get it! He is a defenite upgrade over Blanco and Arias. Those two guys do not strike fear in pitchers. Davis has the capability to hit the deep ball, give Young and Smoak a day off here and there, even provide better insurance if either gets hurt. If you are planning to trade the guy, which I would hate to see, get him some at bats in the show and let him develop more value. He would upgrade the line-up if you cut Arias. He is one of the best defensive first baseman out there.
Great work Joey.
Bryan: I think the general feeling right now is that Davis is better off getting regular at bats in AAA while refining his defense at third base. I do think he's more valuable to the team than Arias, but he's still young enough that every day reps will help him a lot. Among all of the rookies making their debuts this season, Chris Davis would still be at or below the median age. I would leave him in OKC until the rosters expand in September unless Vlad, Smoak, or Young go down for an extended period.
Lee Stevens is an interesting comp. Stevens had some pretty bad BB/K ratios, even during some pretty productive seasons. If Davis were righthanded he'd be a lot better fit right now, but he needs to stay in AAA solidifying his progress for another couple of months in any case. I'd bring him up in September if he's not traded.
A Lee Stevens type career would be a fabulous success in terms of player development considering where Davis was drafted.
I can't wait to see what Pryor has to say about this...
As much as we all love Davis, would anybody trade him and Martin Perez for Cliff Lee?
I have had the opportunity with my son to see CD @ OKC last year and just a few weeks ago, and he is way appoachable. Last year after the game he talked about hitting with my son for about 10 minutes and then this year we saw him before the game and he remembered us and was actually glad we came to see him and the rest of OKC but of course he wished it was in Arlington. Anyway, I think he can still be a very important part of this team. I hope we keep him.
@techgolf - It's gestures like this that make kids grow up to be players and fans... that is too cool!
I got Jim Rice and Freddy Lynn's autographs when I was a kid and instantly became a huge baseball fan.
I'm sure everyone has stories like this but I wanted to share a few: my oldest son talked with Rusty Greer and my younger with Carlos Pena and Barry Zito. Barry Zito actually stood there, looked my son (he was maybe 10 yrs old) in the eyes, and carried on a 2 or 3 minute conversation. He may have been putting on an act, why, I don't know (there was practically nobody else there at the time)... but he talked to my son in a way that (seemingly) he would talk to teammates, etc... Of course my son was too excited to remember any of what he said.
Rusty Greer has to be the nicest person/ball player of all time. I wittnesed an older lady (probably in her 50's, so not like cute little grandma old) flag him down while he was SHAGGING FLY BALLS and ask for an autograph. He sprinted over and signed for her, and then sprinted back (I say sprint... it was more like a fast jog).
Pena was very cool too. He was bombarded by autograph seekers and he didn't stop until he signed every last one...
You know who was kind of a douche? Todd Van Poppel. I was really suprised by this but he must have been in a bad mood because he was a total tool to me and my kids. Not really sure why I wanted his autograph to begin with...
Great work Joey.
Check the byline.
The thing about Davis is that I don't think he's a viable long-term solution at third base ... that opinion may be off base, but I don't know that he's really any better than a -10 > x > -15 fielder at the hot corner, which is to say that he's probably a defensive liability there to a similar extent that MY currently is.
I like the Stevens comp, but here's a foreboding sign ... Stevens (686 PA) and Davis (789 PA) both logged their first three ML seasons from ages 22-24. Here are their respectively 162-game BB/K averages over those age 22-24 spans:
Stevens: 49 BB/129 K (0.38)
Davis: 38 BB/199 K (0.19)
Hitters do generally improve their plate discipline as their careers progress (as David said), and he has somewhat improved in that regard at OKC this year, but history indicates that if you have a sub-0.30 BB/K ratio in the majors, you're probably not going to reach 2,000 career PA -- not unless you're exceptional in other aspects of the game (e.g. defense) or have ENORMOUS power that translates into ENORMOUS power numbers (e.g. Andres Galarraga) or something else like that going for you.
As much as we all love Davis, would anybody trade him and Martin Perez for Cliff Lee?
No and Seattle would probably want more.
The thing I don't get is why almost everyone is wanting to trade away the talent that will be here soon for a pitcher that won't stay. When was the last time the Rangers brought in a big time pitcher and he actually did well? Is he the guy that will be the part owner soon? Hopefully after July 31 please God.
Here is a quiz for you. Five pitchers ERA, WHIP, Avg A, at the Ballpark. All you have to do is pick out Oswalt and Lee, the other 3 already pitch for us.
1. 3.82 , 1.25 , .244
2. 7.62 , 1.55 , .311
3. 2.70 , 1.20 , .221
4. 3.94 , 1.35 , .289
5. 4.04 , 1.31 , .235
OK before someone points it out yes one is Lewis and only used post Japan numbers.
So if you use a 3 man rotation for the playoffs who do you take out of a starting spot? What do you do with Holland? Are we getting a rental (and losing possibly a star or two of the future) that may not be able to pitch at the Ballpark just to make the playoffs?
JUST SAY NO!
Sorry didn't intentionally make the whole post bold, just my subconscious I guess.
Sorry David! I enjoy your work and didn't read the byline. Seems to going around a lot lately. My bad.
I always forget Davis is only 24...seems like he's going to improve, but I don't think he can make significant improvement in a utility role. If we NEED him in Arlington, that's one thing, but just trying to gain a small edge with him taking Arias' place isn't what's best for Chris or the Rangers' future.
I like Chris, but I don't think he has a long-term future with the Rangers. He would however, be perfect trade material for Roy Oswalt. The Astros need a long-term solution at first base with Berkman aging. Davis and a young minor league arm would be an excellent offer which the Astros would be foolish not to accept.